Pivot Podcast Summary

Episode: Holiday Spending Surge, Fed Chair Future, and Melania's Production Company
Date: December 2, 2025
Hosts: Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway

Overview

This episode dives into the post-Thanksgiving retail landscape, the trends and implications of record holiday spending, coming changes at the Federal Reserve, the ethical questions surrounding tech investor David Sachs’ White House role, and the business—and controversy—of Melania Trump’s new production company. As always, hosts Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway blend sharp business analysis with biting wit, offering insights into the latest developments in tech, business, and politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Holiday Spending Surge: Who's Buying and What It Means

[05:00 – 17:35]

• Record Black Friday Spending
  • Online spending hit $11.8 billion (up 9% YoY); overall holiday sales expected to approach $1 trillion.
  • Most growth attributed to inflation, not higher purchase volumes.

    “People actually bought fewer. Order volumes dropped 1%, prices jumped 7%.” – Kara [06:01]

• High Income vs. Middle/Lower Income Shoppers
  • Spending held up for the wealthy, but middle & lower-income families are pulling back.
  • The economy's increased reliance on top earners makes it more fragile.

    “The top 10% can cut their discretionary spending by 70% on a dime. If you take the top 10% out, the economy's basically flat.” – Scott [09:53]

• Stock Market's Effect on Spending
  • Economic confidence tied to S&P/Nasdaq performance, particularly for wealthy consumers.
  • AI stocks’ volatility directly influences luxury and discretionary spending behavior.
• AI's Role in Retail
  • AI-driven bots and tools contributed to about a 10% increase in online sales; in-store sales remained flat.
  • AI traffic to retail sites up 800%, per Scott [11:59].
• Rise of "Buy Now, Pay Later"
  • Significant increase in BNPL, especially among younger shoppers and surprisingly, even high earners.

    “41% of shoppers age 16 to 24 use buy now, pay later… Even 38% of people making over $100k.” – Scott [12:24]

  • Hosts criticize BNPL as disguised debt and worry about its systemic risk, drawing parallels to the subprime crisis.

    “It's usury. It takes advantage of them and it makes it feel like it's free… we're encouraging ridiculous spending well beyond people's ability to buy.” – Kara [14:00]

• Prediction for Holiday Sales
  • If markets, especially AI stocks, hold up, spending will stay strong. Otherwise, retail could falter sharply.

    “If the stock market keeps going up or it recovers, especially with AI stocks… I think it's going to be an AI Christmas.” – Scott [16:18]

2. Fed Chair Speculation: Who Will Trump Pick?

[17:33 – 22:33]

• Donald Trump teases his Federal Reserve Chair pick but doesn’t name names.
• Kevin Hassett emerges as a rumored frontrunner, but his credibility is questioned.
  • Hosts note his history of public obsequiousness and controversial economic predictions.

    “He wrote a book that was completely wrong.” – Kara [19:07]

• Scott’s preference: a wonky economist like Austan Goolsbee, Justin Wolfers, or Janet Yellen (“I want someone who’s just a total fucking wonk and sits by the fire with their Labrador and just looks through data all day long.” – Scott [18:53])
• Trump is unlikely to consider any of Scott's picks; both joke about Trump appointing family members.
• General consensus: Hassett isn’t the worst possible pick, but selection is more about loyalty than expertise.
• Anecdote: Kara and Jamie Dimon clashed over China’s innovation at a dinner years ago.

  “He was lecturing me about China and the Internet and I was not having it.” – Kara [21:41]

3. David Sachs: Tech Bro in the White House

[23:54 – 31:17]

• Potential Conflicts of Interest
  • New York Times reports on Sachs’ dual roles: tech investor and White House AI/crypto czar.
  • Sachs received ethics waivers and claims to have sold most conflicting assets, but NYT identified over 700 investments that could benefit from his policymaking.
• Critique from Industry Insiders
  • Tech leaders (Benioff, Andreessen) rush to Sachs’ defense after what hosts call “a mild criticism” from the NYT.

    “This is such an insider game…this is about the rich getting their shit and telling us what to do.” – Kara [26:17]

• The Real Problem: Systemic Cronyism
  • Scott argues the real issue is a government system that allows, even incentivizes, such conflicts.

    “Everything you own, everything you have an interest in should be put in a blind trust.” – Scott [28:16]

  • Kara notes Sachs isn’t bringing in diverse voices or prioritizing AI safety.

    “He zeroes out people who like Anthropic who have just a little bit of concern for people.” – Kara [28:58]

• Bottom Line
  • The episode frames Sachs’ actions as the latest example of influence-peddling in Washington—just with a tech bro twist.

4. Trump’s Immigration Clampdown

[31:19 – 35:00]

• After the fatal shooting of a National Guard member (allegedly by an Afghan national), Trump launches sweeping immigration restrictions, including a freeze on migration from “third world countries” and threats to denaturalize Americans deemed unpatriotic.
• Hosts highlight the economic harm and national security risks of abandoning those who assisted the US abroad.

  “If the people over there don't feel as if America's gonna look after them if they…aid us…we put our service men and women in greater peril.” – Scott [34:05]

• Kara notes that such broad crackdowns damage America’s status as a global talent magnet and create unnecessary tragedies.

5. Melania’s Vanity Production Company

[39:01 – 44:42]

• Muse Films Launch and Its First Project
  • Melania Trump launches a production company; her debut project, Melania, is set for release by Amazon MGM Studios for a reported $40 million.
• Industry Norms vs. Unprecedented Grift
  • Celebrity-led production companies aren’t new (Obamas, Markles), but previous first families waited until after office to seek deals.

    “The first lady should not be entering into commercial agreements in exchange for Wink, wink… I'll make sure this acquisition does or does not go through.” – Scott [41:17]

  • The $40M price tag is criticized as paying for regulatory access, not content.
• Melania’s Contribution as First Lady
  • Scott: “I think she's the worst First Lady in history. I don't think she does anything redeeming.” [42:14]
• Ethics and Personal Commentary
  • Both hosts lampoon Melania’s motives and the transactional nature of the arrangement.
  • Kara, on Melania: “She's been for sale from the get go since she took a plane over here. Come on. Let's be clear what she is. It's just the price.” [43:31]
  • Memorable moment: Both hosts riff on Melania’s bloody Christmas trees as her sole creative highlight (“What a bitch. I love her for this.” – Kara [44:07])

6. Wins & Fails

[48:10 – 62:19]

Kara:

• Win: Praise for late playwright Tom Stoppard and a strong recommendation for the TV show Pluribus (“Run, don’t walk.” [50:23])
• Fail: Tech leaders’ perpetual “ridiculous sensitivity” and defensiveness.

  “…the continued ridiculous sensitivity of the grifters of tech who pretend that they're doing this for all of us when they're doing it for them.” [50:24]

Scott:

• Win: Enthusiasm for the new Knives Out movie and Daniel Craig’s performance.

• Fail (controversial): Critiques society’s over-reliance on therapy as the universal solution for life’s challenges, arguing for broader structural fixes—jobs, housing, better safety nets.

  “You can't therapy your way out of material precarity…mental health improves to the point where they may not need to speak to a $200 an hour therapist.” [57:18, 59:50]

• Both recount brief, failed experiences with therapy and agree that a broader, more holistic approach to well-being is essential.

  “The therapist was like, you're fine, you can go. It was like, I don't, I agree with you.” – Kara [57:54]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “The top 10% can cut their discretionary spending by 70% on a dime.” – Scott [09:53]
• “It's usury…we're encouraging ridiculous spending well beyond people's ability to buy.” – Kara [14:00]
• “I want someone who's just a total fucking wonk and sits by the fire with their Labrador and just looks through data all day long.” – Scott [18:53]
• “This is such an insider game…this is about the rich getting their shit and telling us what to do.” – Kara [26:17]
• “Everything you own, everything you have an interest in should be put in a blind trust.” – Scott [28:16]
• “If the people over there don't feel as if America's gonna look after them if they…aid us…we put our service men and women in greater peril.” – Scott [34:05]
• “The first lady should not be entering into commercial agreements in exchange for Wink, wink... I'll make sure this acquisition does or does not go through.” – Scott [41:17]
• “She's been for sale from the get go since she took a plane over here. Come on. Let's be clear what she is. It's just the price.” – Kara [43:31]
• “What a bitch. I love her for this... If this film is like that, I'm gonna watch it.” – Kara (on Melania’s blood red Christmas trees) [44:07]
• “You can't therapy your way out of material precarity.” – Scott [57:18]
• “The therapist was like, you're fine, you can go. It was like, I don't, I agree with you.” – Kara [57:54]

Final Thoughts

As always, Kara and Scott’s banter is both incisive and irreverent, mixing economic and political analysis with real talk about power, privilege, and pretense. This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of tech, policy, and society—plus there’s plenty of humor to leaven the heavy subject matter.

For further questions or contributions, listeners are encouraged to submit at nymag.com/pivot or call 855-51-PIVOT.