Pivot Podcast Summary: "How Trump Will Impact the Economy, Big Tech, and Social Media"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Pivot
• Host/Authors: Kara Swisher (Tech Journalist) and Scott Galloway (NYU Professor)
• Description: Every Tuesday and Friday, Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway provide sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics. They make bold predictions, pick winners and losers, and engage in lively banter.

1. Reflecting on the 2024 Election Outcome

Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway begin the episode by addressing their incorrect predictions regarding the 2024 election. They express their disbelief and disappointment at getting the outcome wrong, emphasizing the emotional toll it took on them.

• Kara Swisher [02:29]: “We were wrong.”
• Scott Galloway [03:01]: “This was especially wrong. This was spectacularly wrong.”

Kara shares her unsettling feeling the morning after the election, hinting at an intuition that things wouldn’t go as expected. Both hosts discuss their personal experiences on election night, highlighting the uncertainty and stress they felt.

2. Emotional Turmoil and Coping Mechanisms

The hosts delve into their emotional responses post-election, describing feelings of nausea and panic. Scott discusses his attempts to manage anxiety through various methods, though admitting some were ineffective.

• Scott Galloway [08:15]: “It did not work for me, Kara.”
• Kara Swisher [09:22]: “How do you think our audience should process this?”

Scott emphasizes the importance of mourning and taking action to influence future outcomes, while Kara reflects on the polarization and the factors that led to their misjudgment of voter sentiments.

3. Analyzing Voter Behavior and Election Drivers

Scott presents his analysis of what drove the election results, attributing the victory to the "manosphere" and the "bro vote."

• Scott Galloway [12:05]: “I think the manosphere won here. I think this was the bro vote that won the election.”

He highlights significant swings among younger voters (18-29) and middle-aged parents (45-64), emphasizing economic frustrations over social issues as the primary motivators.

• Scott Galloway [12:37]: “If you can't afford a home... you want change, you want disruption.”

Kara questions why voters overlooked Trump's personal flaws, suggesting that economic concerns overshadowed character judgments.

• Kara Swisher [09:23]: “Why did none of those things matter to people?”

4. Market Reactions to Trump's Victory

The hosts examine the immediate impact of the election results on financial markets. They note significant gains in major stock indices and specific company shares that benefited from the anticipated Trump administration policies.

• Scott Galloway [28:09]: “The net worth of billionaires led by Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, who we'll talk about shortly, surged by over $63 billion.”

Kara points out Tesla’s 15% surge and the spike in shares of Trump Media, GEO Group, and CoreCivic, linking these movements to expected policy changes under Trump.

• Kara Swisher [28:09]: “Trump Media shares spiked to around 4%, $44 a share, though not quite as high as predicted.”

5. Reactions from Big Tech Leaders

The conversation shifts to how tech CEOs responded to Trump's win. While most extended courteous congratulations, Jeff Bezos stood out with a more effusive endorsement, which Kara found concerning.

• Kara Swisher [36:07]: “Jeff Bezos was quite different from the others. He was on the first kiss, the ring, calling Trump's win an extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory.”

Scott analyzes the strategic reasons behind these congratulatory messages, suggesting that CEOs aim to align with the incoming administration to safeguard their interests.

• Scott Galloway [36:33]: “They're smart to do it. If you're focused on your shareholders, you're smart to do it.”

6. Potential Economic Policies and Inflation Concerns

Scott discusses Trump's proposed economic policies, particularly high tariffs and targeted tax cuts, expressing skepticism about their effectiveness.

• Scott Galloway [32:44]: “Trump's policies will be much more inflationary.”

He explains the market’s bifurcated reaction: equity markets anticipating growth from tax cuts, while credit markets worry about inflationary pressures leading to potential recessions.

• Scott Galloway [29:55]: “The equity markets like it... the credit markets right now don't love it because they think its policies are going to be inflationary.”

Kara raises concerns about the feasibility of implementing such drastic tariffs, noting the market's disbelief in their practicality.

• Kara Swisher [33:48]: “The market's not buying it. Market doesn't think it's gonna happen.”

7. Regulation of Big Tech Under a Trump Administration

The hosts explore the future of big tech regulation, touching upon figures like FTC Chair Lina Khan and the ongoing antitrust cases against major companies like Amazon and Meta.

• Scott Galloway [51:47]: “I actually am betting. I think she's gonna stay. She's one of the few... politically astute.”

Kara brings up Trump’s history with Section 230 and his attempts to ban TikTok, questioning the administration’s commitment to regulating or supporting big tech.

• Kara Swisher [55:02]: “Do you think the ban is off the table? It’s certainly... it’s been passed though, by Congress.”

Scott speculates on possible backroom deals and the complexity of reversing or implementing tech regulations under Trump.

• Scott Galloway [56:19]: “There's so many moving parts here that we're not privy to...”

8. Social Media and Misinformation

The discussion highlights the role of social media platforms in shaping public perception and the potential policies Trump might implement to control or influence these platforms.

Kara mentions the proliferation of misinformation and the challenges it poses, anticipating future studies on propaganda.

• Kara Swisher [23:26]: “We’re going to study the propaganda, uses propaganda by foreign and domestic.”

Scott links the election outcome to the power of social media, noting how platforms like Meta influence public opinion and Trump's potential interactions with tech leaders.

• Scott Galloway [58:39]: “If you think the CCP has turned up polarization and division within America amongst our youth, wait and see what I do to you, boss.”

9. Future Implications for Technology and Business

Scott predicts significant shifts in the advertising market, anticipating a move from traditional local news to podcasts as the primary medium for reaching voters, especially younger demographics.

• Scott Galloway [63:52]: “In 2025, we're going to see podcast revenue accelerate faster than TikTok, Meta or Alphabet.”

Kara agrees, recognizing the opportunity for podcasts to become the dominant platform for political and business advertising.

• Kara Swisher [67:47]: “We like them, we love them.”

10. Personal Anecdotes and Light-hearted Moments

Towards the end of the episode, Scott and Kara share light-hearted conversations about movies and personal experiences, providing a brief respite from the heavy topics discussed.

• Kara Swisher [69:08]: “You never saw Invasion of the Body Snatchers?”
• Scott Galloway [72:20]: “You are the first person I want to talk to after this.”

11. Concluding Thoughts and Call to Action

Wrapping up, Kara encourages listeners to maintain hope and resilience in the face of political polarization, emphasizing the importance of holding leaders accountable.

• Kara Swisher [74:16]: “We do not have to like it. You don’t have to cooperate. We just have to fight for what you believe in.”

Scott adds that combating authoritarianism requires continued accountability and leveraging the rule of law.

• Scott Galloway [73:53]: “The most pernicious thing will be...”

Key Takeaways:

1. Economic Concerns Drive Voter Behavior: The 2024 election was heavily influenced by economic frustrations rather than social issues, leading to Trump's victory despite personal controversies.

2. Divergent Market Reactions: While equity markets are optimistic about potential tax cuts and corporate growth under Trump, credit markets worry about inflationary policies leading to economic instability.

3. Big Tech's Strategic Alignment: Tech CEOs congratulated Trump to align with the incoming administration, safeguarding their businesses against potential regulatory changes.

4. Regulation Challenges: Trump's proposed economic and tech policies face skepticism regarding their implementation and effectiveness, with complexities in reversing or enforcing regulations.

5. Shift in Advertising Platforms: A significant move from traditional media to podcasts is anticipated, targeting younger, affluent demographics, reshaping the landscape of political and business advertising.

6. Importance of Accountability and Resilience: Maintaining hope, holding leaders accountable, and building coalitions are crucial in navigating the current polarized political environment.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [12:05]: “I think the manosphere won here. I think this was the bro vote that won the election.”
• Kara Swisher [33:48]: “The market's not buying it. Market doesn't think it's gonna happen.”
• Scott Galloway [63:52]: “In 2025, we're going to see podcast revenue accelerate faster than TikTok, Meta or Alphabet.”
• Kara Swisher [74:24]: “We do not have to like it. You don't have to cooperate. We just have to fight for what you believe in.”

Conclusion: In this episode of Pivot, Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway provide a comprehensive analysis of Trump's potential impact on the economy, big tech, and social media. They dissect voter behavior, market reactions, regulatory challenges, and anticipate significant shifts in advertising platforms. Amidst the introspection and strategic evaluations, they emphasize the need for accountability and resilience in a polarized political landscape.