Iran Market Disconnect, Vance v. Pope, and OpenAI Shades Microsoft and Anthropic

Summary

Pivot Podcast – Episode Summary Episode Title: Iran Market Disconnect, Vance v. Pope, and OpenAI Shades Microsoft and Anthropic
Date: April 17, 2026
Hosts: Kara Swisher & Scott Galloway

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Overview

In this episode, Kara and Scott deliver sharp, unfiltered takes on the latest in tech, business, and politics. The episode centers around the market’s response to escalating Middle East tensions, the peculiar dynamics between OpenAI, Microsoft, and Anthropic, and a series of headline-grabbing political maneuvers, including J.D. Vance’s public spat with the Pope and outlandish merger pitches in the airline industry. As always, the hosts sprinkle the show with irreverent banter, bold predictions, and memorable one-liners.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iran Market Disconnect & Global Tensions

• Stock Market Reactions vs. Geopolitical Reality

  • Despite rising Middle East tensions and threats to global shipping, U.S. markets are surging.
  • Scott explains that energy independence and historic market patterns are driving optimism, even while oil and gas prices spike, disproportionately hurting the lower half of America.
    • Scott: “The NASDAQ and Dow are the two most damaging metrics in the world because they give people a false sense of the prosperity and well being of the world.” [06:32]
    • Rising input costs (like fertilizer) are also harming global food security, with direct effects on the world’s poor, as highlighted by Kara's reference to her Jose Andres interview.

• Strait of Hormuz & U.S. Strategy

  • Scott supports the idea of a multilateral force maintaining open straits for global commerce, calling the U.S. stance the least-bad option to protect freedom of navigation.
    • Scott: “If you want the straits blocked, we’re going to make them blocked for everyone, including all entry into Iranian ports, which I think is the right move.” [05:07]

• Disconnect Between Markets & Real Life

  • Both hosts agree the market’s current optimism is out of touch with the economic pain and instability most people are experiencing globally.

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2. Politics of Religion: Vance v. Pope

• J.D. Vance’s Critique of the Pope

  • Vance argues the Pope should exercise caution on matters of theology, prompting Scott and Kara to point out the absurdity of suggesting the Pope not speak on theology.
    • J.D. Vance audio: “I think it’s very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology.” [10:55]
    • Scott: “I’m sorry, the Pope shouldn’t talk about matters of theology. Isn’t that exactly who should be discussing it?” [11:09]
  • Scott contends Vance’s bashing of the Pope is politically foolish, potentially alienating evangelical swing voters.

• Religious Performance and Political Theater

  • Kara calls out performative religiosity in U.S. politics, referencing Pete Hegseth reading a fake Bible verse at the Pentagon.
    • Kara: “These people are so performatively religious. They don’t even read the Bible. They just quote from Pulp Fiction because they don’t know the difference.” [12:44]

• Democrats’ Impeachment Push

  • Scott believes pursuing impeachment of Defense Secretary Hegseth without sufficient votes is performative and ultimately damaging.
    • Scott: “I think that’s stupid…unless you have the votes lined up, you don’t do it…It just comes across…I just don’t think America needs another impeachment.” [15:05]

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3. Amazon’s Satellite Ambitions and the Space Race

• Amazon Buys Global Star

  • Amazon acquires satellite operator Global Star for $11.5B, aiming to rival SpaceX’s Starlink by combining assets into Project LEO (formerly Kuiper).
  • Scott predicts this strengthens Amazon as a key infrastructure player and speculates they’ll soon offer bundled phone/connectivity packages as part of Prime.
    • Scott: “Amazon’s going to launch a phone and then they're going to offer Amazon Prime Plus which will offer you a phone and lightning fast connectivity into your home.” [24:00]

• Competition with Starlink

  • Kara points out Starlink’s critical role in disaster relief (Jose Andres uses it for World Central Kitchen) and suggests clients are hungry for non-Musk alternatives.
  • Both agree Amazon’s move helps create a competitive duopoly in global satellite internet.

• IPO Mania

  • Scott expects SpaceX’s IPO will be massive but overhyped, and predicts Anthropic to IPO ahead of OpenAI with a better growth story.
    • Scott: “The best IPO of 26 will be Anthropic, which will get out ahead of OpenAI because it has more momentum.” [27:10]

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4. The OpenAI, Microsoft, and Anthropic Drama

• OpenAI “Shades” Microsoft

  • A leaked memo (clearly “leaked on purpose,” per Kara) positions OpenAI as distancing from Microsoft, blaming the partnership for enterprise market delays and praising new ties to Amazon. The memo also accuses Anthropic of elitism.
    • Kara: “OpenAI is distancing itself from Microsoft and cozying up to Amazon, which is interesting…” [28:00]
    • Scott: “This has become Coke versus Pepsi. And yeah, I think it feels desperate.” [30:35]

• Anthropic’s Momentum

  • Anthropic is now leading OpenAI in revenue and enterprise adoption, fueled by its focus away from fickle consumer markets.
    • Scott: “Anthropic has more momentum than any company in the world right now…its ARR was $9B…now $30B…OpenAI is $25B.” [29:45]

• Consumer vs. Enterprise AI

  • Scott explains why Anthropic’s B2B focus trumps OpenAI’s consumer approach: enterprise customers stick, pay more, and lack substitute options.
    • Scott: “You can get as a consumer a really outstanding LLM and AI for free. If you’re a company…there’s no free alternative. So…whoever dominates enterprise has just a much better business.” [33:39]

• Risky Public Spats

  • The hosts say targeting Microsoft publicly makes no sense, risks alienating a key partner, and is a sign of OpenAI’s internal trouble.
    • Kara: “You don’t get into a war with Microsoft.” [34:44]
    • Scott: “Microsoft as a multiple of free cash flow is cheaper than it’s ever been… Sam, I think they were smart to be focused…but this is a tale of two cities. And one city is skyrocketing, and that’s Anthropic, and the other is burning up on reentry, and that’s OpenAI.” [36:14]

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5. Airline Merger & Antitrust

• United’s CEO Pitches Merger to Trump
  • United Airlines’ CEO proposes merging with American Airlines, which would control ~40% of U.S. domestic flights.
  • Both hosts and market observers see massive antitrust red flags; Scott says the DOJ should kill the deal outright.
    • Scott: “This absolutely makes no sense from a concentration of monopoly standpoint. This should not be allowed to happen…30-40% of US domestic capacity. And... airline tickets are skyrocketing.” [45:22]
    • Kara: “They will fuck consumers so hard.” [47:34]

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6. Trump Accounts for Kids

• Baby Bonds and Financial Literacy
  • Trump’s new initiative gives $1,000 seed deposits to millions of kids via “Trump accounts” managed by BNY Mellon and Robinhood.
  • Kara and Scott celebrate the policy in spirit, advocating for early compounding as a way to build long-term wealth, regardless of political branding.
    • Scott: “I love the concept…giving every infant born some money and letting compound…spend $40 billion a year and then…in 20 or 30 years…everyone’s going to have a million bucks at 65.” [50:39]
  • Scott shares personal anecdotes about college savings (529 plans) and the power of compounding.

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7. Miscellaneous & Predictions

• Predictions & Hot Takes
  • Scott predicts a wave of companies will pivot to “AI” in name only to pump their stocks, referencing Allbirds’ rebrand as “Newbird AI” (stock spiked 900%, reminiscent of past crypto-fueled rebrands).
    • Scott: “Allbird and this ridiculous jazz hands pivot to AI that resulted in a massive one day spike…you’re going to see a dozen of these things announced in the next 90 days.” [61:11]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Scott: “The NASDAQ and the Dow are the two most damaging metrics in the world…” [06:32]
• Kara: “These people are so performatively religious…They just quote from Pulp Fiction because they don’t know the difference.” [12:44]
• Scott: “This has become Coke versus Pepsi. And yeah, I think it feels desperate.” [30:35]
• Kara: “They will fuck consumers so hard.” (On the airline merger) [47:34]
• Scott: “Allbird and this ridiculous jazz hands pivot to AI…You’re going to see a dozen of these things announced in the next 90 days.” [61:11]
• Scott: “The best revenge, hands down, indifference. Just indifference.” [41:23]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 02:10 — Scott’s NYC tax woes & banter
• 04:37 — Iran, Hormuz, and the markets
• 10:55 — J.D. Vance goes after the Pope
• 15:05 — Talk of impeaching Defense Secretary Hegseth
• 22:51 — Amazon/Global Star Satellite deal
• 28:00 — OpenAI's leaked memo & strategic pivots in AI
• 45:22 — United Airlines’ attempt to merge with American
• 50:39 — Trump accounts for kids / baby bonds debate
• 59:36 — Predictions: AI pivots and copycats
• 61:11 — Allbirds–>Newbird AI rebrand

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Tone & Style

The conversation is lively and irreverent, blending genuine expertise and banter. Kara uses sharp wit and pointed cultural references, while Scott combines deep business analysis with signature sarcasm. They dissect leaders’ choices, corporate strategy, and the political circus with clear attribution and a healthy dose of humor.

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Summary prepared for listeners who want the essence of the episode – with context, big ideas, and must-remember quotes without sitting through ads or small talk.

Transcript

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[Scott Galloway]

I used to be this cute professor that everyone said nice things about. And then when I got big because of you, people started actually looking at my shit and saying, this makes no sense.

[Kara Swisher]

Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York magazine and the Vox Media podcast network. I'm Kara Swisher.

[Scott Galloway]

And I'm Scott Galloway.

[Kara Swisher]

Where are you right now? Where are you?

[Scott Galloway]

I'm back in New York. I got back last night.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, you are?

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. I love. I love coming back here. I don't know if this is my happy place, but it's definitely my let's go to Shamar go and get fucked up place.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay, but let me ask a question. The pied a terre tax. What is. Did you hear about this with Hochul and Mamdani?

[Scott Galloway]

Does that mean if you're banging a French dude, you gotta wear condoms. What does that. What does that mean?

[Kara Swisher]

It's for people who don't actually live in New York. They're. They're taxing your real estate. And that would be you. You're gonna get a pied a terror tax.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I'm glad you've announced that publicly. Such that they know. Have to know how to penetrate my LLCs and like, attempts to hide my tax status.

[Kara Swisher]

They're already onto Ken Griffin. You're like.

[Scott Galloway]

You're like, yeah, me and Ken Griffin for them. Me and Ken Griffin.

[Kara Swisher]

I'm just saying that's. That's who they're noting. Has a pied a terre.

[Scott Galloway]

And you have a pirate. What the fuck is with that?

[Kara Swisher]

People who don't live in New York who have a second home and don't actually live here have to pay a tax. That's what's happening. Just so you know.

[Scott Galloway]

You know, I'm glad to participate and support our Navy and great parks. It's an honor for me. Isn't that what rich people say is that they love paying their taxes at 12% tax rate? Yeah. I don't know. Let's see how much it is. High value properties over 5 million. It's okay. That's a bummer.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, that's you.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, Fuck that. A $10 million apartment could face 50 to 200k per year extra tax.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

What?

[Kara Swisher]

You know, it'll raise about 500 million for the city of New York to help bring good services to the good people of New York. Just saying.

[Scott Galloway]

I say, let's hope you didn't know this. I say let the homeless rain and let the subway go to shit. I can't afford this.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Well, you have to rethink things. Anyway, I just so glad to tell you about your tax.

[Scott Galloway]

Paying you back for this is so like. I was in such a good mood this morning and you show up and remind.

[Kara Swisher]

I thought you knew it ran and

[Scott Galloway]

basically put a bullseye on my forehead for the New York State comptroller.

[Kara Swisher]

There is not a bullseye. Oh, my God. They know it. They know it.

[Scott Galloway]

I rent a studio in Gowanus just so everyone knows that I don't own a place here.

[Kara Swisher]

It's not a bullseye, Scott. They know it. They know. They know. You talk about where you live. Oh, my God. Forget. I'm not. You're not blaming me for this Pied outer.

[Scott Galloway]

I saved. I saved your fucking series. You cost me a quarter of a million dollars.

[Kara Swisher]

Let's get to the news. There's so much going on. There's also so much going on besides Piet. Your new name is Peter Le Pew. You are Pepe. You know what? You kind of are. Anyway, let's do a rundown of the latest with Iran. President Trump says the war is very close to over again. As we tape this, Iranian officials and Pakistan's military chief are set to meet in Tehran to discuss messages exchan by Iran and the U.S. meanwhile, Iran's military has threatened shipping in the Red Sea if the US Continues its blockade of Iranian ports. What do you think?

[Scott Galloway]

Let me just piss off everybody. I think that the US threatening to block, to fully block the Strait of Hormones is the right move right now because many people do. Because if freedom of navigation for the last 150 years has been a key component of the global economy, it's a generally accepted principle that the Strait of Malacca, the Straits of Singapore, of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore decide one day to exert their geopolitical power and get tens of billions of dollars that they could block the Strait, Egypt could block the Suez Canal. And so if there isn't a multilateral force that keeps this thing open, it just sets a terrible precedent. Now, how we got here, I think a lot of people have very valid arguments around, well, we broke and now we're asking the world to fix it. But I think it's actually a good strategy to say, okay, if you want the straits blocked, we're going to make them blocked for everyone, including all entry into Iranian ports, which think is the right move. What is really unusual about all of this, and I know we're going to get to this, is that the markets are up, which is just it fully seems like the markets have totally dislocated.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm sorry.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. The S and p is up 2.6% in the last five days. Just they are going up because they feel that there'll be some opening of the Hormuz. Correct. I mean, or as Scott Bessen call it, the Strait of Vermouth. But go ahead.

[Scott Galloway]

There's a few things happening. One, I've said this for a while. I think the NASDAQ and the Dow are the two most damaging metrics in the world because they give people a false sense of the prosperity and well being of the world. And the reality is America is energy independent. And so there's actually some stocks that are up 20 to 40% in the oil sector. So it's not a defense risk to us. The markets seem to be saying that the war will at some point be resolved sooner rather than later and that the oil flow through Hormuz will begin again. You also have this unusual situation where the last three major conflicts the US Was involved in or three exogenous shocks, the Gulf War, the Iraq War and Covid. What ended up happening was the markets were way down. And initially in March, at the outset of the war, the markets declined 10%. But in each instance there's been a rip. Back in the following year, the stocks are up. So people have been buying the dip. And basically what's happened now is people buy the dip sooner and the markets recover. Based on the historical pattern of the market surging after.

[Kara Swisher]

Sure, but, but it's still a mess there. Mess created by Trump that was unnecessary. Right. The way he's doing.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, then that's a political statement. And I, I, you can agree or not agree. I'm just talking about what the markets, the markets have totally disassociated here.

[Kara Swisher]

They have. And I think, you know, Stephanie Rule actually had a really good take on this this week where she was talking about why they're like this and they just feel they're just trading. That's what she said. The ups and downs. They don't care about anything else. They just have watched the historical.

[Scott Galloway]

But also look who this is hurting. Gas is, Gas prices are. Brent crude is up. The European benchmark's up 32%. The price of gasoline in America is up 36%. Brent oil futures are up 31%. But let's be honest, who does this hurt? It hurts the lower half of America. Oil prices don't really impact you or me, Kara. And the reality is 10% of America, the top decile of American citizens, now are now responsible for 50% of consumer spending. They own 90% of the stocks. Do they care that gas is at 6 bucks? I mean, it's an interesting media headline, but the reality is the stock market is now a proxy for companies that are mostly invested in technology. And some oil companies, you could argue some consumer companies will get hurt because consumers will stop, will spend less. But wealthy people just aren't affected by this.

[Kara Swisher]

Right, which is the point you made. I'm going to interject. One of the things interviewed Jose Andres this week at the Semaphore column, and he was talking about fertilizer prices and how people, you know, people across the world eat hand to mouth. And he was noting that. He said, you and I, you know, it'll be irritating to pay 4, 5, 6 dollars at the gas station and it will hurt us but not in the way it hurts people around the world. And also fertilizer prices for farmers in the Midwest and added to the tariffs with Canada, because the two places we get fertilizer from, I believe the United States primarily imports fertilizer from Canada and I think Russia. Anyway, we have an issue with everybody else. And so the stock market doesn't reflect people's lives.

[Scott Galloway]

That's exactly right.

[Kara Swisher]

So one of the things that House Democrats are doing now, you told them to act. And I don't know if you think this is a thing to do, but they just filed six articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Heg says I think they're getting ready as Rahm Emanuel has started to make some moves, high crimes and misdemeanors related to Iran. And by the way, Hegseth, I must note he read a fake Bible quote from Pulp Fiction during a prayer service at the Pentagon on Wednesday. He's really quite and at the same time, there's supposedly operations being prepared for Cuba. They're moving to Cuba even as the Trump administration continues to beef with the Pope, which is a whole nother thing. And so I think despite the fact that, yes, the stock market is reflecting something else, you and I might not be as affected as other people. This is it's beyond political. It's now economic for most people, which I think gets missed. You know, it doesn't get missed in all this, but it has a real impact, including this beef with the Pope. Let's listen to a clip. Now. J.D. vance has entered the conversation, newbie Catholic J.D. vance at Turning Point USA event this week where of course, nobody showed up, which was kind of astonishing. Let's listen.

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

But I think that it's important in the same way that it's important for the vice president, United States to be careful when I talk about matters of public policy. And I think it's very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I'm sorry, the Pope shouldn't talk about matters of theology. Isn't that exactly who should be discussing it?

[Kara Swisher]

He has to be careful. He should be careful even though he's a very well regarded theologian. But J.D. vance has some words for him. I think he's torpedoing his 2028 chances by picking a fight.

[Scott Galloway]

He's decided still that he needs to have such to be such an acolyte. This is a politically stupid move for him because evangelicals are actually swing voters. They were sort of a toss up with Biden and then they went Hard for Trump. If he doesn't get evangelicals, he's not going to be the nominee. And he's clearly decided that it makes more sense. I mean, I don't get this at all. Because if he were to come out and say those comments, while I respect what Trump said, I feel like the Pope's comments were ill timed. I still have an issue and I will not be critical. Or if he came out slightly against Trump, Trump might be furious at him. Trump's not going to dump his VP at this point, and JD Vance needs evangelicals. I mean, this was just a really stupid thing. And also just because I think it's important to be as offensive as possible and convince people that I am not, in fact, running for president. You know how a little boy saved a priest's life?

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, no, no, no, we're not doing. No, we're not doing. We're not doing.

[Scott Galloway]

Okay, nevermind. I'm sorry, I won't do it. I respect you. I got a picture of you behind me. Nevermind. Let's move on. He found a lump on his scrotum. He found a lump on his scroll.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, no, no, no.

[Scott Galloway]

Cop pulls over two priests and says, we're looking for two child molesters. And the priests look at each other and then look to the cop and say, we'll do it.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, my God. Okay, we're not insulting the Catholic Church right now because Trump is doing so. I think the whole thing is insane. And, you know, I know it's a joke about Pete Hegseth quoting from Pulp Fiction. He probably did an AI search and thought it was that. Right? That's my guess. That's. That's probably what happened to one of his dumb minions. Added it in. But it's a fake Bible verse. These people are so performatively religious is my issue. Like, they don't even. They don't even read the Bible. They just quote from Pulp Fiction because they don't know the difference. And if you are actually someone who's really religious, you do know the difference. And with the Vice President, just literally. Let me just take one more point. The Pope is an American citizen. He should be able to say what he wants. By the way, he remains an American. I assume he remains an American citizen despite. Despite being a Pope. But he doesn't lose those First Amendment rights. But he's talking about peace. He's talking about tyrants. He's talking about everything Jesus talked about and solidifying his power.

[Scott Galloway]

What do you get when 500 Jewish mothers convert to Catholicism? Kara you get critical mass. Critical mass. I think that's pretty good. I think that's pretty good.

[Kara Swisher]

Anyway, we're gonna move on. This is really disastrous, this fight with the Pope. The Pope is gonn.

[Scott Galloway]

No, don't go up against El Papa, Especially this Papa. He's very good. He's very good.

[Kara Swisher]

This is a good Papa. Like, oh, man. I even want to go in the church. That's how good Papa it is. I'm like, I'm going back. Like, I'm going back in.

[Scott Galloway]

You're going to go to one of those crazy Unitarian churches with some lady with blue hair baptizing support or rescue dogs. You'll end up at one of those kind of churches.

[Kara Swisher]

No, no, I won't. I don't like those.

[Scott Galloway]

Or go to Glide next time in San Francisco. That's awesome.

[Kara Swisher]

I love Gly.

[Scott Galloway]

I love Gly.

[Kara Swisher]

It's a wonderful church. It's a wonderful church. I don't like Unitarian churches. My ex wife took me to one. We were married, and I was like, do they stand for anything? Like, for some reason, the Catholic in me?

[Scott Galloway]

They're too politically correct for you?

[Kara Swisher]

No, they were like. I was like. It was like everybody, everything. They believed everything. And I was. And I listen. I have a lot of respect for all religions, but I had to leave.

[Scott Galloway]

There's your land acknowledgement. I don't. I believe some religions are worse than others. Let me just say that.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, they're not worse. They're lovely.

[Scott Galloway]

I just want to. I just. I got interrupted by my poorly, poorly timed jokes. I just want to go back to the notion of trying to do an impeachment or begin impeachment proceedings of Hexad. I think that's stupid. I don't think you. I think if we've learned, or. One thing we should have learned as Democrats is that unless you have the votes lined up, you don't do it. It comes across. I just don't think America needs another impeachment.

[Kara Swisher]

But I thought you said for them to signal what they're gonna do, isn't that kind of signaling what they're gonna do?

[Scott Galloway]

No, this is. In my view, this is what they do. An impeachment nostalgia tour the Democrats don't need. Again, at this point, it wouldn't work. I'm all for impeaching the president at this point and the Secretary of Defense. You don't do it until you know the votes are locked. You announce it and then start the vote the next day. Otherwise, it's just performative and pisses off the other side and is a waste of time. This is what you do. You announce legitimate legal action and coordination with the state AG to go after certain individuals who have committed actual crimes. And there's a lot of them in this administration. This is performance, it's political, and we're gonna again, look stupid.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay. Anyway, I'm gonna move on because the chaos follows Trump wherever he goes. He's back to his Jerome Powell fight. He's like an old man who forgot he was fighting with someone and then remembered. He said if he doesn't step down next month, he's gonna fire him, even though he has more time on the board. And also says the DOJ probe of Powell and the Fed should continue. Powell's Fed chair term officially ends on May 15th. His term as Fed governor is up in 2028. Usually they leave when they. When they finish their chair, but he doesn't have to. And he plans to stay on as acting chair until his successor, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. Powell says that's what the law calls for. Walsh's confirmation hearing is scheduled for next week, but Senator Thom Tillis, who I interviewed as said confirmed again, he won't confirm him until the DOJ probe is resolved. All this from the Prosecutors, from the U.S. attorney. Jeanine Pirro's office showed up at the Fed this week trying to get a tour of the building's renovations got turned away. She's trying hard to become Attorney General. FYI, he can't. If he fires Trump, Powell, he's in big trouble. He's gonna taco this one, right? Presumably, he's back to it, though.

[Scott Galloway]

It's three people in a room with Claude and chatgpt. And every time the temperature in association with Epstein gets a bunch between the link between Trump and Epstein and its presence in the media gets above a certain temperature, they say throw something out and distract everybody. And this is just another one because I don't even think he legally has the right to remove Powell from the Board of Governors. So his term doesn't end till January 2028. So this is just. Again, I believe he knows and his people have said. I mean, there's two things that are going on. Either Grandpa just says shit as he's thinking it, and maybe that's true, or if you give him more credit than that, it's another attempt to distract from Epstein. I don't want to say I feel bad for Kevin Warsh, but his entire hearing is going to be about Jero Powell, not about Kevin Warsh. And what I've said before is that as long as Powell is on the board of governors, he's the de facto chair. Because anything he says, 11 of the 12 governors are going to nod their heads the chair.

[Kara Swisher]

Which is why Trump wants him gone.

[Scott Galloway]

That's exactly right. But he does not have the power to do this. And you are going to have several Republican senators find their testicles and come out in favor of Chairman Powell remaining on the board of governors. It's. But I think Trump knows that and just today said, I need something to keep Epstein out of the news. I'll go after Powell again or the war or. Yeah, my favorite is, my favorite is they're gonna start talking about Epstein to distract from Iran.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, I know. Yeah, that was, that was. Because that's what that was. The Melania faint. I guess we'll see what happens. They're not gonna firepow. They're not. They're just not. Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break and when we come back, Amazon makes a big acquisition.

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[Kara Swisher]

Scott we're back. Amazon is acquiring a satellite operator, Global Star, in a deal worth around 11.5 billion as it tries to catch up to SpaceX Starlink. Under the agreement, Amazon gets Globalstar's existing satellites and infrastructure, which will operate alongside Amazon's own network, now called leo after the Pope, I guess. Amazon says the deal will enable it to build direct to device satellite system with a rollout expected in 2028. FCC chairman Brandon Carr says his agency is very open minded to the deal and the FCC is taking all gas, no breaks approach to expanding the US space economy. He kind of has to, he just kind of has to talk about this because obviously Amazon isn't going away and they're trying to solidify this network for themselves to be at least the number two player here.

[Scott Galloway]

My big stock pick for 2025 was Alphabet. We got that one right. My big tech Stock Pick for 26 is Amazon. This is what I think Amazon is going to do. They are going to build a viable competitor to Starlink using Kuiper as a platform. And this is another step in that.

[Kara Swisher]

It's called LEO now it's called LEO,

[Scott Galloway]

I'm sorry, Project LEO. They bought, basically they bought 24 satellites here and it's never been profitable. But Amazon closed up 3%. And this is what I think Amazon's strategy is. Amazon's going to launch a phone and then they're going to offer Amazon prime plus which will offer you a phone and lightning fast connectivity into your home. They're going after at&t, Verizon and Comcast and basically going to offer you connectivity with Amazon Prime. And they need the satellites to do this. So why would they buy a non profitable satellite company against the above 20 satellites? They get Spectrum, they get radio waves, the wireless signals including WI Fi travel on. The government owns these and issues specific licenses for them. But Spectrum is auctioned off by the FCC and extremely expensive. So they get that. They could do for B2C again Amazon price. They could sell Wi Fi to Prime subscribers. B2B they could sell private wireless networks to serve its warehouses, delivery hubs, robots, drones. Robots and drones need this connectivity to communicate wirelessly constantly. And it's much easier if it's cost efficient. If Amazon has its own network.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. So it's a strong number two. It's to create a strong number two.

[Scott Galloway]

This is essentially what Amazon is. It's the strongest infrastructure company in the world. It's an extension of their investment in the logistics network. And right now project LEO has 240 operational satellites. It plans to ramp up its network by deploying 3200 in Earth's low orbit. By 2029, Starlink has over 10,000. This is definitely catch up. But Amazon has has 115 million homes to offer this service to overnight.

[Kara Swisher]

Right. The relationship with consumers. Right. So you have to go out and buy Starlink. And people do love it, I have to say. You know, oddly enough, Jose Andres, who has a huge beef with Musk over usaid, saying he's killing, essentially saying he's killing people. He said we used to Starlink is critical to our world central kitchen operations and I think he would like an alternative. But he definitely said it's really a shame. I wish that Elon was around and not this other, which is, you know, hugely damaging to their efforts across the world, feeding people. But between that fertilizer and that, like the cuts at usaid, they're facing, you know, a huge uphill battle against hunger across the world. But one of the things that's happening here is you get an alt. This is what's happened with Tesla. This is what happened. There's going to be number two now. Will it have an impact on the SpaceX IPO? I doubt it. I think it's going to be like it's going to run, oddly enough, Interestingly enough, Google is a big owner of it, of ipo. They're going to make like many commas of money from this deal. So that should, that would, that, that'll be an interesting thing because many years ago Yahoo owned a big piece of Google. I don't know if you remember in the beginning. And that's what saved them for a while, like having that investment in, in Google that they made. And now in this case, Google's going to make a lot of money from these SpaceX. But I don't think this SpaceX IPO will be damaged in any way. Correct from your perspective?

[Scott Galloway]

No. It's arguably one of the strongest rands in the world right now and people are excited about it. It'll go out wildly overpriced. I think it'll get a slight bump. It'll be the biggest IPO of 26. The best IPO of 26 will be Anthropic, which will get out ahead of OpenAI because it has more momentum. But it's going to be again, if you look at SpaceX, I think 18 billion in revenue, 6 billion in profits. So it's out at 100 times revenue. It's growing 24% a year. When Google went public, it was growing 240% a year and trading at 10 times revenues. So SpaceX, incredible company. The most overvalued IPO in history. The answer is yes. This is just insane. The valuation they're talking about.

[Kara Swisher]

Yes. Yeah. And I think it's great that there's another there's more satellite efforts like this. There has to be at least two or three. I mean, there's not going to be more than that, by the way, because the costs are so huge. But it's good for having run for their money. Speaking of OpenAI and anthropic, OpenAI is distancing itself from Microsoft and cozying up to Amazon, which is interesting. In a memo sent to staff, OpenAI's revenue chief Denise Dresser said the Microsoft partnership has limited the company's ability to meet enterprises where they are. No, no shit. On the other hand, Dresser said the company's Amazon deal has generated frankly staggering demand. Dresser also used the memo to go after Anthropic, accusing the rival of building its strategy on, quote, fear, restrict, on the idea that a small group of elites should control AI. Obviously they're trying to hurt Anthropic in the race to an ipo. They're throwing Microsoft under the bus. And interestingly speaking of Anthropic news, the company has recently received multiple offers from VCs to invest at valuations as high as $800 billion. And Anthropic has briefed the Trump administration about its new Mythos model, which is not being released to the public, as we talked about last week, due to its alleged cybersecurity capabilities. Bezos owned Washington Post said the efforts by the Pentagon to thwart Anthropic are stupid, which was interesting this week. So they're fighting it out in court. I suspect the Trump administration is going to start dropping that soon enough. But talk a little bit about this OpenAI memo, which was obviously leaked in order to get it out there. And this idea of breaking from Microsoft side lamp to Amazon and attempting to stain Anthropic in some way, which I think is stupid on my, my, in

[Scott Galloway]

my estimation, Anthropic has more momentum than any company in the world right now. It's gone. I mean, it's gone at the end of 2025, which wasn't that long ago. Its ARR was 9 billion. It's now 30 billion. It's more than tripled its annual recurring revenue in four months. And by the way, OpenAI is 25 billion. So the little engine that was kind of an afterthought to OpenAI just 12, 18 months ago is now a bigger business than OpenAI. And this is the first time that Anthropic has led on revenue and it's growing faster. And not only that, it's a better business because that growth is almost exclusively enterprise driven, which is a better business.

[Kara Swisher]

So what is OpenAI doing here? By release? They released the memo. Let's not pretend that this is what they were doing. What's the messaging?

[Scott Galloway]

This has become Coke versus Pepsi. And yeah, I think it feels desperate. I do, too. They're trying to. They're trying to weaponize the government against them. They're trying to shitpost them. These guys hate each other. It's the Hatfields versus the McCoys. And Anthropic has 1,000 customers paying over $1 million a year. That's up from just 500 in February. The number of customers spending over a million dollars a year has doubled in the last.

[Kara Swisher]

So they don't seem to care about the Pentagon thing at all. You had thought they might, but it looks like they don't. Looks like they don't.

[Scott Galloway]

The numbers here. Let me give you some more data. 80% of Anthropic's revenues come from business clients who quite frankly are just more reliable and less margin sensitive than consumers, versus 40% at OpenAI. 70% of every incremental dollar spent on AI coming from the enterprise is going to anthropic. They raised 30 billion in their Series G at a $380 billion valuation, which is ridiculously low compared to the $850 billion valuation that OpenAI did, guaranteeing a 17% return, which could crush previous investors if they don't. If they have to go out lower than that. They also said, I mean, both companies are exploring an IPO this year and Anthropic projects positive free cash flow by 2027. OpenAI has said they're going to break even in 2030, but the bottom line is Dario Emodi is just showing himself to be a much more competent CEO than Sam Albany.

[Kara Swisher]

Right. Let me ask you a question. This focus on consumer. Here's what I see. OpenAI definitely focused on consumer and being like Kleenex or Google.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

Right.

[Kara Swisher]

That was what they were going for. The one that everyone thinks of, ChatGPT is Kleenex, right. Or Google or whatever. The representative of everything. So they relied on the consumers. Then they have a really. Sam Altman starts to get a very big bad consumer reputation. So he. That like up to and including people attacking his home. Right. Which is heinous. They have relied on consumer relationships which are very easy to break. Right. Suddenly you become the bad guy. And I think that that's one of the things. But bear hugging Amazon and pushing away Microsoft. What is that? If you're in the room, what do you think the strategy is?

[Scott Galloway]

The honest truth is I don't know. My guess is there's some ego involved here and some dynamics behind the scenes that I just don't understand. But let me be clear. It's not easy to build a consumer brand. It can be very powerful. I'm not suggesting I'm biased because all my businesses have always been B2B and the one business I did, B2C, red envelope, was just so much fucking harder that I found than building a B2B business. Now what I think the dynamic here is the following. The reason why Anthropic is going to be worth more and get to the IPO starting line faster than OpenAI as an enterprise dominant business, as opposed to a consumer business of OpenAI, it's not necessarily that one is much better than the other. But here's the difference in terms of competitive dynamics. You can get as a consumer a really outstanding LLM and AI for free if you're a company. If you're Clorox looking for a $3 million Enterprise Wide LLM them AI offering, there's no free alternative. So in sum, the substitutes on the consumer level are just much greater than the substitutes at an enterprise level. Which says to me, whoever dominates enterprise has just a much better business. Also with just a duopoly, if one is perceived as better, which right now anthropic is perceived as better in the enterprise, enterprises are much less consumer sensitive because if they're going to implement technical debt, they don't care if it's 30% more expensive.

[Kara Swisher]

Is it a mistake to then say we didn't get in the enterprise fast enough due to Microsoft? Which may in fact be the case. And now we're going to hover.

[Scott Galloway]

That makes no fucking sense.

[Kara Swisher]

Right? Why are they doing it?

[Scott Galloway]

You're going to piss off one of the most important, measured, thoughtful people in tech, Satya Nadella. That just makes no sense.

[Kara Swisher]

Who backed you when you were in trouble?

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, and it should. It shows that you're not getting along with. You have these fights behind the scenes. You don't say that publicly. You don't get into a war with Microsoft.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, they didn't. It was a memo that got out. But they leaked the memo. I mean, this is my feeling. But one of the things they have to do is they have a problem with their image because they're the face of AI. They're the face of AI, Right. Well, Dario looks like a hero from a marketing point of view at the very least. And so that's, I think the real problem is Sam Altman represents AI. Which everybody is hating on, like young people, all the polls, everybody has a problem with it. And when the problem shows, you look at someone like Sam Altman and not Dario, you know, Dario's not getting the kind of hatred that Altman is getting now, which I think is a problem. But. But why hug Amazon too?

[Scott Galloway]

Because Amazon is executing against infrastructure like no one's business. And if you want to, I mean, arguably Amazon from an enterprise level is the most discerning consumer in the world. The world. And Amazon is the best infrastructure company in the world. But I think there's some ego here. I think someone got pissed off at someone. But you don't get into a public tiff with Microsoft, by the way, just in terms of stocks. Microsoft as a multiple of free cash flow is cheaper than it's ever been. I think Microsoft's a really good buy right now. But look, Anthropic has so much momentum right now and OpenAI does not get this. Kalshi is saying the odds of Altman being replaced as CEO are up to 27%. I mean, for the first time, Sam Altman being replaced by the end of the year is a real possibility because OpenAI public tiffs with Microsoft, who was supposed to be your partner in this, throwing up, totally shitting the bed in the enterprise market, all this negative PR and press. I mean, and there's just no getting around it. Anthropic is worth more than OpenAI right now. And so I think, Sam, I think they were smart to be focused. They're going to do away with that ridiculous nonsense from IO that, that was the stupidest acquisition of 24 or whatever it was. That's going to be, that's going to be a $6 billion write off. They're smart to stay focused. But this is, this is a tale of two cities. And one city is skyrocketing and that's Anthropic. And the other is burning up on reentry and that's OpenAI.

[Kara Swisher]

But the posturing is important, right? So Altman is fighting with Musk on that case, which is going to be full, is going to trial, it looks like this case. So that's going to bring unnecessary no matter what. Elon fights with a lot of swords, so he'll land some blows. Even if he's. And make them look bad. He will. Even if he looks, he doesn't care because he's like the villain. So it's fine if he makes other people look like a villain. I mean, from a public perspective, they're also, you know, it's not just Altman, it's like someone like Chris Lehane who I find very aggressive. Right. And this is a very aggressive group of people that sounds like they're not getting along internally. You sort of feel rumbles of that, you know the mistakes of not embracing enterprise and going full scale into popularity I think is always if you don't make that transition, as you said, it' difficult and quietly this other group has done this. Now I agree they should, they shouldn't be fighting with Microsoft but they made the mistake and now they're blaming their partner for that. Right. The ability to meet enterprises where they are because they're actually, they look like they're flaring. They're competing with Microsoft. They are competitors in that, in that space. So anyway.

[Scott Galloway]

But what's to be gained, what's to be gained by shitposting Microsoft in public? I don't know what are they to

[Kara Swisher]

going just to say we're serious about the end, we're going to really compete in the enterprise now we're serious. I don't know. I don't know. I just, I don't understand this memo whatsoever.

[Scott Galloway]

But what enterprise is going to hire OpenAI because they've been critical of Microsoft? I, I don't, I absolutely don't get it. This. These people have egos. Satya Nadella doesn't need, doesn't need Sam. I mean Microsoft could write off its investment in OpenAI. Quite frankly the market has already done that. The market has taken Microsoft's stock down I don't know, 20 or 25% in the last six months. The trouble in Mudville has already been perceived by the market with respect to Microsoft's playing in traffic with OpenAI and that their investment in OpenAI may not end up being the kicker in the afterburn everyone thought it was Amazon got

[Kara Swisher]

in at better rates essentially but go

[Scott Galloway]

ahead And a guy like Satya Nadella doesn't scare easily. I absolutely don't understand who approved this public spat on the and it says to me that OpenAI does not have a board that would say oh yeah that's a good idea, let's get in a war with Microsoft. There's ego here. Someone got pissed off at something.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. Going after anthropic as being fear restriction idea this small is just sort of so backward looking just to when you start attacking the number two there's something going on especially I think they were trying to get reporters interested in this run rate and inflation of revenues which by the way no one really cares about with these companies at this point, they want to know who the leader is going to be anyway. I mean, they should care, but they don't.

[Scott Galloway]

There's a general crucible rule. Fundamental truth in branding and marketing is that when you're the market leader or you want to be perceived as the market leader, which I think OpenAI would say, we are the leader and we want to be perceived as the market leader, you never reference the competition.

[Kara Swisher]

Right?

[Scott Galloway]

You don't, you just never. Visa was a client of mine back in my brand strategy days at Profit, and I said, why wouldn't you talk about this versus MasterCard? And he goes, we're the market leader. We never reference the competition. When you reference the competition, you're immediately saying they're a competitor. And when you're the market leader, what you want to say is, we have no Coke. Never referenced Pepsi. Coke. Never did a taste test. Like, we don't even. As far as we're concerned, Pepsi doesn't exist because we're fucking Coca Cola.

[Kara Swisher]

I've done that. I used to do when they were talking about competitors. I'm like, who? I'd do things like, I'm sorry, I didn't see it. I would

[Scott Galloway]

stop driving. I don't. The best. I don't do that well. I've always liked.

[Kara Swisher]

I don't know who. Scott.

[Scott Galloway]

Scott, who's that? Who's that? What? I think someone said he has a picture of me.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

I think behind him on his podcast. The personal learning here is the following or what I finally come to peace with when people shitpost you or criticize you online. The best revenge, hands down, indifference. Just indifference.

[Kara Swisher]

You've gotten good on that.

[Scott Galloway]

Don't mention it.

[Kara Swisher]

Never used to get mad at certain people attacking you at all.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I wasn't used to it. I used to be this cute professor that everyone said nice things about. And then when I got big because of you, people started actually looking at my shit and saying, this makes no sense. And I would get upset. Anyway, I'm fine now.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

And then I discovered edibles.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, it's good. Anyway, you've gotten much better about that, I have to say, getting off of Twitter, which you did first, I will acknowledge I'm sorry for making that mistake last week. Anyway, another interesting story. We're going to go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about a potential United States. United American Airlines merger. Seems unlikely, but here we go.

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[Kara Swisher]

Scott we're back with more headlines. The CEO of United Airlines reportedly pitched a merger with American Airlines directly to Donald Trump. Of course, the two companies combined would account for about 40% of the US domestic domestic flying capacity. Industry experts and lawmakers are already pushing back, flagging major antitrust concerns. I mean, even I know that, as one analyst puts it, the Justice Department doesn't object to that. What would they object to? Trump is staying quiet for now with the press Secretary Cohen Levitt saying he has no opinion on a potential merger. I mean I don't mind this guy trying it, but why not? It's the last days of Nero's empire here, so why not? But this seems like something that would be dead on arrival. I just don't, I don't see it. I mean I don't know what do think you think.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, but you just, you summarized it perfectly. And that is the last days of narrow. And that is you're going to see in the next two years you're going to see so many mergers proposed because everyone's going to go, there's no fucking way an FTC or a DOJ that is not in a deep coma would allow this. So if we're, you know, if we're, what are the, you know, two most dominant play. If you're just going to see mergers like crazy because they're going to go, this is our last chance. Because this absolutely makes no sense from a concentration of monopoly standpoint. This should not be allowed to happen. It would create the largest airline on Earth. 30 to 40% of US domestic capacity and air. I don't know if anyone's noticed airline tickets are skyrocketing.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, I have. I just bought some.

[Scott Galloway]

I was looking at a one way from Miami to London business class and it was 11 grand.

[Kara Swisher]

I know, it's crazy.

[Scott Galloway]

Kirby's argument to the administration a combined airline would be a stronger competitor internationally. Okay, yeah. He noted 2/3 of long haul seats from 2 from US on foreign carriers. But 60% of passengers are American. Framing it as a trade deficit issue. And also American. I love airlines. I love aviation. Delta does the best job domestically. JetBlue's mint is the best product. But American has been American. America has the worst product. They're the weakest of the big three. 111 million in net income last year on 54 billion in sales basically break even. And it carries 25 billion in long term debt, more than its rivals. On the other hand, United, which is a better run company, did 3.4 billion on 59 billion. American Airlines stock jumped nearly 10% on the news.

[Kara Swisher]

So what does that say? That it could happen? This can't happen. This won't happen. No way.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, the market thinks it might because again see above the guy. It's just fucking ridiculous that CEOs go kiss the ass of the President to try and get a merger through. He should have nothing to do with this. But the, the antitrust problems here are striking. There are 289 routes where the two carriers overlap and combining them would leave only one or two airlines serving that route. See above increase in prices.

[Kara Swisher]

They will fuck consumers so hard.

[Scott Galloway]

Some of the routes that overlap are Chicago, Los Angeles, New New York, New Phoenix, Charlotte. Could require divesting entire hub operations in some cities. And the DOJ previously blocked the JetBlue Spirit deal which was a fraction of this size. So this is exactly the kind of deal that shouldn't even be considered if there was a DOJ or an FTC that was independent and looked at consumer prices. And these consumer mergers and the lack of regulation does two things. It transfers capital from labor and from consumers to shareholders, full stop. And it's been a one way flow of capital and power for the last 30 years. And the DOJ and FTC have almost no reviews anymore. I mean it's like if you want to save money, get rid of the DOJ and the ftc. What the fuck are they doing now?

[Kara Swisher]

They can't, they absolutely cannot do this. I mean, you know, it's interesting because on Monday you're seeing significant pushback. We'll talk about this more on two things I want to talk about on Monday. The significant pushback to Paramount. Now a lot of Hollywood is now like got the pitchforks out essentially. I don't know if they can do anything about it at this point. But you see them like really organizing at Cinecom, all these places. There's all this pushback and again, David Ellison wouldn't show up for a hearing in Congress about this just for personal reasons. But there's just a lot of pushback there and you sort of see it beginning to coalesce these ideas of no, I don't think so. Which is interesting. You'll see if this happens. Like I feel like people are quite in the mood to stop these things now and that's going to be. They're going to overreach on the other side probably. But it feels like this is like I can't even believe this guy did this. Like I just like, well, okay. And Trump has no political capital to take this on at this point. No way. It's just never happening. I don't see it. I don't see how he.

[Scott Galloway]

I need to correct the record. The DOJ and the FTC do serve a purpose. They did decide that Live Nation was a monopoly, which was the right decision.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, we'll see, we'll see where it's going. There's a lot of pushback on all these things. But you're right, they're Gonna keep trying to do so as things come forward and then we'll get to a normal level again, hopefully. One thing that's interesting, about 5 million kids have signed up for Trump accounts. A 1.2 million eligible for $1,000 treasury seed deposits. The accounts were created through Trump's big beautiful bill and are set to officially launch July 4th. The bank of New York Mellon will manage the accounts and Rob Hearn will build a Trump account. What do you think about Robinhood, known for getting people into risky trades involved in this. Obviously another suck up to Trump in some fashion. But I have several friends who are just doing it. It's like thousand free dollars. Like why not like this. Why not? It seems like let's take the money and use it to save for college or whatever you want to save for. For kids. Any thoughts on this?

[Scott Galloway]

I love this concept. I remember meeting with a guy named Alex von Furstenberg a couple years ago and he was pitching me on the idea of baby bonds and he was very passionate about it and he's been very involved in it. I love the concept of at the very outset giving, you know, for every infant born, giving them some money and letting compound you know, the most powerful force in the universe. I would have gone much deeper than this. For $40 billion a year, you could give $7,000 to every baby and then I would totally infantilize them and not let them touch it till they're 65. You give, you spend $40 billion if you year and then in 20 or 30 years you announce in another 20 or 30 years we're no longer going to need Social Security because everyone's going to have a million bucks at 65. Interest rates dive and it pays for itself. But our Congress doesn't want to think pastor than they're two inch dicks.

[Kara Swisher]

So is there danger here of riskiness for people's like, I mean this is free money. That's what I can. You know, someone sheepus just said, oh, I took a Trump account. I'm like, are you kidding? Grab it. Like absolutely, absolutely. Take a chance.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, why wouldn't you?

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. Into your eligible.

[Scott Galloway]

Just to give you a sense of compound interest, you know, my kid's going to college next year. When he was born in 2000. When was my kid born? 2007. I put $10,000 and I think it's called a 529 New York account.

[Kara Swisher]

I did too.

[Scott Galloway]

And I'm like, I'm worried about college. I don't. I was a clinical professor making 160 grand a year living in faculty houses. And so I thought, okay, I'll scrape together ten grand. And I didn't do it again. I was stupid. I didn't do it again. I just looked it up online because I'm like, oh, what about that 529 I did. Now granted, the markets have ripped. Do you know what that $10,000 is worth?

[Kara Swisher]

A couple hundred thousand dollars?

[Scott Galloway]

No, 85. But still in 18 years it went from 10 to 85.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, I put more in. I did them for both boys. I paid for all of college with Louie and Alex. And people have controversies around 521s. You could have done better in the market. But I just put it away and forgot about it. And I kept, added the maximum amount to it at the time.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, but it's tax, it's tax free. You can take it out.

[Kara Swisher]

It's tax free. I just was like, I don't even want to. I know I could probably do better in the market, but I don't care. I had the money. It was a certain bet I don't

[Scott Galloway]

think you could have. Because the difference is to explain it, if you invested $10,000 and I had 85 in the market, say I had 100, I'd have to pay, I'd have to pay capital gains on it. Whereas if you apply it towards tuition or school supplies you get to, you don't have to pay taxes on the gains. My point is, point is the idea of giving kids every baby born a retirement account. I wouldn't let them have access to 18 or 25. The problem is, and the thing that's going to bankrupt our nation as we continue to send more and more old people who vote old people more vote themselves more money. We have to reduce entitlements for old people. And this is the way to do it.

[Kara Swisher]

So they're not entitlements, they're investments. I mean, I think they danger obviously is if we remove it completely is people are subject to whatever the vicissitudes of the market. And that's always been the worry.

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

Right?

[Kara Swisher]

That's why it's called Social Security.

[Scott Galloway]

There has never been. Okay, but there has never. You could buy any five stocks since the beginning of the markets, you could buy any five stocks in the S and P. And if you hold onto em for 10 years, you've never lost money. Because of demographics and innovation, the long term trajectory of the market. Now there's been decades where it's gone far flat. But over the, over the long, over the long term, there's nothing like the up and to the right of the markets. And I think this is a great idea.

[Kara Swisher]

I put that money away for my kids and I never paid a dime for college because it had been saved. But this is the flaw put away. And it was all tax free. It paid for their, their, their dorms, it paid for their food. And Alex eats a lot. And it was, it was, it was great. And I was like, they had meal plans.

[Scott Galloway]

Plan. Yeah. Michigan is losing money on Alex.

[Kara Swisher]

And the only Louie's. The very end of Louie's college thing. Alex went to a less expensive college was just a little bit of money, but it was zero. It was the best money I ever invested, I have to say. Anyway, I was just. Speaking of which, Alex was turned 21. Congratulations, Alex.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

You're on your own.

[Scott Galloway]

All right, Alex.

[Kara Swisher]

I know.

[Scott Galloway]

Good for you.

[Kara Swisher]

I know. Of course he was studying last night. I was like, alex, go get a drink.

[Scott Galloway]

Go get a drink. My guess is he's already, he's already done that.

[Kara Swisher]

No, I know, but he's like, that might be a good idea. I was like, I have to study for fluid dynamics.

[Scott Galloway]

Look, the, this is the bottom line. Or, or this is a theory. You want to tap into the most profitable businesses in the world, tap into one thing, and that is a flaw in our instincts. We're desperate for affirmation, we're desperate for free gaming. We're desperate for opportunities to procreate. So we buy Ferrari, we go on Instagram and we gamble. The highest margin products in the world, tap into a flaw in our instincts. You want to reverse that and tap into the following flaw. And that is humans are really bad with respect to the time space continuum. What do I mean by that? Because for the majority of our time on this planet, we haven't lived past 35 and now we live to 80. People have no sense of how fast time is going to go. And they say, well, the markets are up 9 to 10% a year. That's nothing. I'm not going to invest in the markets. I can make more money as a baller opening a restaurant or opening my company goes public. You are going to graduate from college, you're going to blink, you're going to have a couple kids, you're going to have some joy, you're going to have some grief and you're going to wake up and you're going to be fucking 60 years old.

[Kara Swisher]

Agreed.

[Scott Galloway]

It happens so fast. So this is what you want to do. You want to, at a very young age, figure out a way where you don't even get the cash in your hands. Matching programs at work, 529s, baby bonds, automatic withdrawals and just a little bit of money from an early age. And then blink. You're 65 and you look at that account and you have a shit ton of money. This is a flaw. This is your revenge on the. This is a way you put scaffolding on the instincts that are flawed.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, I agree, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

For the last 10 years, everything in American politics has basically revolved around one man. And as a political journalist who came of age during Donald Trump's rise in 2016, I've had a front row seat.

[Scott Galloway]

I am officially running for President of the of the United States. It's going to be only America First. America First.

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

Thousands of supporters of President Trump stormed the U.S. capitol building. But is it possible to talk about politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm going to ask in our new show from vox.

[Kara Swisher]

The idea of like a post Trump or not exactly Trump focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items. It really does feel like so random, reactive.

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

You know, I think this Iran thing is also going to cause a big split in the gop. So far it doesn't among like people who say they're MAGA voters are still with Trump, but like for the first time you see on a major issue, open opposition from the start of this war. I'm Estet Herndon and welcome to America. Actually.

[Kara Swisher]

Hi, I'm Brene Brown.

[Scott Galloway]

And I'm Adam Grant and we're here

[Kara Swisher]

to invite you to the Curiosity, a

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

podcast that's a place for listening, wondering,

[Scott Galloway]

thinking, feeling and questioning.

[Kara Swisher]

It's going to be fun. We rarely agree, but we almost never

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

disagree and we're always learning.

[Kara Swisher]

That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday. Hey, so we're not paying taxes this year, right?

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

Until the Pentagon passed passes one damn audit, we shouldn't pay any more taxes.

[Kara Swisher]

People don't want to pay taxes anymore because they don't trust the way the

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

government is spending and tracking our money.

[Kara Swisher]

Americans are fed up with paying taxes and. I know, I know, but hear me out. Americans are extra fed up with paying taxes lately, according to some Gallup polling and some posting. But are we being short sighted? I think that it's important to have a good government. I think that humans tried anarchy for quite a Long time and it didn't work so well. A lot of people got hit over the head with rocks. We didn't have a whole lot of economic development. Almost everyone agrees that the United States should have a military to protect it from foreign invasion, that we should have law enforcement, firefighting schools, etc. Anti taxers. And where this could all be heading on today explained dropping every weekday afternoon. Okay, Scott, let's hear up predictions. Is it about Allbirds now that it's an AI business? No, just move along.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, I had two and one of them was all birds.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay, go for it.

[Scott Galloway]

Okay, so I, I'll go to that one because you're. You prompted me. My, my prediction was going to be anthropic IPS before OpenAI. But that's boring and I've already talked about anthropic. So I'll go to the one you suggest. The Allbirds pivot to AI will inspire a bunch of copycats. You're going to see Chegg, Gamestop, Rent the Runway all decide their AI companies. So this is what's happened. Allbirds, the once hyped sneaker brand that just sold its IP for 39 million two weeks ago, down from a $4 billion peak valuation, is rebranding as uncomfortable sneaker business.

[Kara Swisher]

But Go ahead.

[Scott Galloway]

Is rebranding as Newbird AI and pivoting to leasing AI chips GPUs. The company is buying 50 million DOL secured 50 million in financing to buy GPUs and lease them to customers. And shares spiked nearly 900% at intraday highs on the announcement. So what is this going to do? Just like remember when bitcoin treasury companies went crazy and all these different companies decided they were now bitcoin treasury companies. So we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well. Long Island Iced Tea Corp. Rebranded as long blockchain in 2017 to ride the crypto wave and its shares were eventually delisted and the SEC brought insider trading charts charges Shocker. New Bird, if you will. What I call Newbird will soon be no bird. So the prediction is the following Allbird and this ridiculous jazz hands pivot to AI that resulted in a massive one day spike ton of competitive ton of copycats. And it doesn't end well.

[Kara Swisher]

Where does it end? How does it end?

[Scott Galloway]

These companies have short term pops. The insiders who get the shares before they announce it dump the bag. And then the people who think this is anything resembling a company with enterprise value end up losing a shit ton of of money similar to all the Bitcoin treasury companies. When you try. And it's like, remember in the early 2000s when I remember being in a meeting, a board meeting at Williams Sonoma where we seriously contemplated changing the name of the company to williamsonoma.com because we thought that would add shareholder value. And Howard Lester, who is one of like the clearest blue flame thinkers in retail, is like, that's just fucking stupid. We're not doing that. Anyways. When you're just trying to create, create the illusion you're in a hot area with absolutely no domain, expertise, IP or advantage, sure, Call it AI a pop. If you're in allbirds right now, just take it from me, sell. But you're going to see a dozen of these things announced in the next 90 days.

[Kara Swisher]

So stupid. People did mock it, which is good. All right. I have no predictions today. I predict that Scott Galloway will be a star of much show this weekend. Everybody watch it. Cause Scott is very funny and actually has a lot of serious and significant things to say about healthcare and longevity. And he's really good.

[Scott Galloway]

I don't remember that part.

[Kara Swisher]

You do.

[Scott Galloway]

I remember falling asleep. I don't remember saying anything substantive.

[Kara Swisher]

You did. And you sound great. You sound really good. You actually say a lot of substantive things. Anyway, he looks great and you get to see him sleep. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com pivot submit a question for the show or call 855-51PRIVOT. Elsewhere in the Kare Scott universe. This week on Prof. G Markets, Scott spoke with Katherine Ann Edwards, Ph.D. economist and Bloomberg News columnist, on why AI is only one factor behind the challenges young workers are facing. Let's listen to a clip.

[Guest or Additional Speaker]

It's not as if the only thing standing between young workers and a job is what private employers are doing or say they are doing or will do. With AI. We have a weak economy and a weak labor market with terrible social supports and almost none of them, no investment in people that don't have a job. There are solutions that don't have to come from just knowing more about AI but have to come from holding our policymakers accountable for economic mismanagement. AI is today's story, but there will be another one. Weakness is weakness in the labor market. We don't have great infrastructure for helping people who don't have a job.

[Kara Swisher]

That's 100% right. It's so true.

[Scott Galloway]

She's super smart. You'd like her.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. Anyway, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll have lots to talk talk about next week. There's so many topics happening and we'll be back next week to do so.

[Scott Galloway]

Today's show was produced by Larry Naimonso and Marcus Taylor Griffin and Todd Wiseman. Ernie Intertodd engineered this episode. Manala Moreno edited the video. Special assistance from Kate Gallagher and Brad Sylvester. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Mr. Variant, Danchel and can AI replace all these people? Nishad Kirwa is Vox Media's executive producer of Podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the [e-mail] pod we'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Have a great weekend. Cara.