Podcast Summary: Pivot — "Pivot Predictions: Scott’s Big Tech Stock Pick, The Next Bailout, and President JD Vance?"

Host: Kara Swisher, Scott Galloway
Date: December 30, 2025
Podcast: Pivot (New York Magazine, Vox Media Podcast Network)

Episode Overview

In this annual predictions episode, Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway reflect on past forecasts and offer their boldest predictions for 2026, spanning technology, business, politics, media, and culture. The tone is sharp, irreverent, and data-driven, mixing high-level macro analysis with unfiltered banter. This installment focuses heavily on the implications of AI (especially AI’s impact on markets and geopolitics), robotics, the volatility of tech stocks, shifting dynamics in global politics (including the possibility of President JD Vance), predictions markets, and seismic changes in Hollywood and media.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Annual Recap: Were They Right?

Theme: Review of last year’s predictions and unabashed self-congratulation.

• Both hosts revisit their 2025 calls, with Kara repeatedly emphasizing, "I was right. I was fucking dead right." (01:09), and Scott agreeing, "You did. You predicted it." (01:22).
• The duo relishes their correct forecast of a major deal/executive exit (context intentionally left coy).

2. AI: The New Global Battlefield

Theme: AI as the central nexus for business, geopolitics, and a looming market correction.

Scott's 2025 Prediction Recap

• "2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be OpenAI and Nvidia right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI..." (02:09)
• Kara notes that "now it's code red at OpenAI," signaling dramatic shifts even among the titans.

2026 AI Stock Prediction:

• Scott: Major drawdown in AI stocks likely, driven by Chinese open model "AI dumping."
  • “China is totally diversifying away from the US...I think China's about to go for the jugular here...AI dumping...open weight models...lower cost...I think you're going to see massive pressure placed on OpenAI and other US based models and I think that's going to cause a re-rating down of these stocks.” (06:25–08:22)
  • Cites that already "80% of A16Z startups use Chinese open source models."
• Kara: Robotics is the true under-hyped AI frontier.
  • “The combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough...I think in manufacturing and all kinds of areas, robotics are going to really start to become...really interesting...especially when combined with AI.” (08:27)
  • Points to Korean AI-powered exoskeletons as harbinger of widespread AI-robotics integration.

Notable Exchange:

• “You're going to see a massive re-rating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China.”
  — Scott Galloway (08:21)

3. Business & Market Prognoses

Theme: Stock picks, margin expansion, and the fragile post-boom market.

Scott’s 2026 Stock Pick:

• "My big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon...It's been an underperformer...because they have made massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in...robotics..." (11:25–14:16)
• Amazon's margin expansion forecast due to robotics & AI-driven efficiencies.
• "Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational [industrial] robots as the rest of the nation combined." (13:44)
• “You're about to see the mother of all margin expansion at the hands of AI and robotics.” (14:11)

Kara’s Market Worries:

• “Investors feel very fragile, it seems like...I think sometime in 2026, maybe right after the midterms, we may start to see like maybe the stock market not being so good for Trump...you're going to see the declines...in these tech companies.” (14:16)

4. Politics: Trump, Musk, and the Vance Scenario

Theme: The ongoing volatility in US politics, the Trump-Musk fallout, and the specter of President JD Vance.

Trump vs Musk and the Fallout:

• Predicting the "Doge" (likely a stand-in/metaphor for festering distractions) phase ending. (16:15)
• Scott compares the potential historical judgment of Trump and Musk; critical of USAID cutoffs under Trump:
  • “He will probably end up on some lists along with Stalin, Pol Pot, Hitler...” (16:28)
• Kara laments the loss of soft power and blames Trump’s “addict”-like impulsiveness.

President JD Vance?

• Kara: “I feel like we're gonna have President J.D. Vance by the end of 2026.” (17:56)
• Scott floats the impeachment/resignation angle, noting biological inevitability ("biology is undefeated." 18:12)
• Kara speculates on Trump’s health and the realpolitik of Vance taking over if Trump loses the midterms.

Tech CEOs in Politics

• Kara lambasts the public antics of tech execs:
  • "Can you imagine the head of Lockheed behaving like Alex Karp did...He looked demented screaming on the stage...these people need to sit down and shut up for a little while. Like, seriously, they just can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually.” (19:20–19:35)

5. Fintech & Predictions Markets

Theme: The rise of event-based betting markets (Polymarket/Kalshi), their risks, and broader cultural impact.

Scott’s Prediction:

• "The next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella...the S&P is now 40% The Magnificent 10...They will call it something like another CHIPS act." (21:31–22:14)
• Explains that US economic fate is tied dangerously to a handful of AI firms; political response will be to prop up the sector.

Kara’s Concerns:

• "So easy to game, so easy to go sick, right [with predictions markets]." (24:31)

Gambling & Social Risks:

• Scott flags addiction and insider trading opportunities:
  • “Gambling has the highest suicide rate...bankruptcies go up by a third the moment a state legalizes gambling...” (25:39)

Outlook on Prediction Markets:

• "These things are phenomena...It's going to be the vice of the year...they will be two of the biggest...One or both of them is going to go public in 2026." (26:28)

6. Media & Entertainment: Hollywood Upended

Theme: The AI "meteor" hits Hollywood, short-form takes over, and more consolidation ahead.

AI and Hollywood:

• Scott: “Short form video and AI meteor strike Hollywood. AI 1...AI is just going to…I mean, everybody is so sentimental for theaters. Theaters have not come back...AI…reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood.” (30:30)
• Notes decline in theaters (down 1/3 post-COVID), the explosive growth of short-form video on platforms like YouTube/TikTok, and children shifting viewership away from traditional TV.

Short-Form Video:

• Kara reminisces on early attempts at this model (Quarter Life), admits short-form dominates her viewing now:
  • "I watch mostly short form video now, I have to say." (33:58)
• Scott: “We have trained our brains to be so short form and dopa hungry..." (31:29)

Media Consolidation:

• Kara: "Hollywood consolidation just, you know, not just AI, but how everything is made is going to...there's going to be more deals...this Netflix-Warner thing is inevitable..." (34:19)
• Argues the industry won't get government bailouts like farmers; fewer people needed to make media; AI enables endless content variations (ex: “Hey, I like West Wing, I'd like another season. Like they can do that.” 35:34).

Notable Quotes:

• “You will not get bailouts. You will just, just get gone. And so I think this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable.”
  — Kara Swisher (35:18)

7. Hosts’ Wild Card Predictions

Angry Lesbians Run the World (and TV):

• Kara: “More angry dyspeptic. Go fuck yourself. Lesbians for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you.” (38:36, 38:54)
• Raves about Rhea Seehorn in Pluribus and predicts angry, gun-toting lesbians as 2026’s television trend.

The TikTok Windfall:

• Scott: "Best investment you don't have access to is TikTok...Trump's forcing them to sell it for 14 billion...these guys are going to buy [it] and then get 3 to 400% return within 12 months. This is pure socialism meets cronyism meets autocracy." (39:05–39:56)

Social Media Sentiments:

• Both admit to increased enjoyment of Threads, Reels, and Instagram (“They're very pleasing, very pleasant, I have a great time. I find news. I still like Blue Sky 2, but…” - Kara, 40:36)
• Scott laments being “not on” the TikTok bonanza deal: "Not on this one...You don't have access." (40:07)

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• Kara (on predictions): "I was right. I was fucking dead right." (01:09)
• Scott (AI & China): "I think you're going to see a massive re-rating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China." (08:21)
• Scott (Amazon): "Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational robots...as the rest of the nation combined." (13:44)
• Kara (J.D. Vance): "I feel like we're gonna have President J.D. Vance by the end of 2026." (17:56)
• Kara (on tech CEOs): "These people need to sit down and shut up for a little while. Like, seriously, they just can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually." (19:34)
• Scott (On the next bailout): "The next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella..." (21:31)
• Kara (media consolidation): "You will not get bailouts. You will just, just get gone. And so I think this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable." (35:18)
• Kara (2026 trend): "Angry, gun toting, dyspeptic. Fuck the hive mind. I don't like AI. Lesbians are the trend of 2026." (38:54)
• Scott (on TikTok deal): "Best investment you don't have access to is TikTok...This is pure socialism meets cronyism meets autocracy. But again, it’s happening." (39:05–39:56)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• [01:09] — Recapping old predictions, banter over being "right"
• [02:09] — 2025’s “duopoly” prediction (OpenAI & Nvidia)
• [06:25] — Scott’s AI “AI dumping from China” prediction
• [08:27] — Kara’s robotics + AI deep-dive
• [11:25] — Scott picks Amazon as 2026's top tech stock
• [14:16] — Kara’s concerns: markets face volatility post-midterms
• [17:56] — The President JD Vance scenario
• [18:02] — Scott’s speculation on Trump’s health & political outcomes
• [19:20] — Rant on tech CEO antics in politics
• [21:31] — Scott: “The next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella…”
• [23:36] — Risks with the predictions markets; addiction, insider trading
• [30:30] — Hollywood: AI & short-form video disruption
• [34:19] — Kara: Hollywood consolidation & the AI content revolution
• [38:36] — Kara's “Lesbians run the world (and TV)” prediction
• [39:05] — Scott’s take on the insider TikTok windfall
• [42:31] — Episode wrap & sign-off

Conclusion

This spirited predictions episode of Pivot delivers high-level insight, witty cultural commentary, and a dose of alarm about the fragility and volatility of our current techno-political moment. From AI’s pending market correction to the likelihood of further Hollywood shakeouts—and maybe even an unexpected president—the hosts forecast a future defined by rapid change, risk, consolidation, and the blurring of lines between tech, business, and global politics. And, if Kara is right (as she loves to remind us), 2026 will—at the very least—be the year angry lesbians rule the airwaves.