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- [00:01]
Scott Galloway
Support for the show comes from AT&T, the network that helps Americans make connections. When you compare, there's no comparison. AT&T.
- [00:15]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
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- [00:50]
Scott Galloway
Support for today's show comes from Zoom. Work isn't just meetings. It's calls, chat docs, emails, events, and more. Zoom brings it all together in one platform, so workflows and ideas move faster, more. Learn more@zoom.com podcast and Zoom ahead.
- [01:10]
Kara Swisher
I was right. I was fucking dead right.
- [01:12]
Scott Galloway
We predicted this, Scott.
- [01:14]
Kara Swisher
You and I predicted in March that we would see a deal like this.
- [01:17]
Scott Galloway
We predicted he would exit, as I predicted last week.
- [01:20]
Kara Swisher
As I predicted, I knew this day was coming and how it would go down.
- [01:23]
Scott Galloway
You did. You predicted it.
- [01:24]
AT&T Advertisement Voice
I did.
- [01:25]
Scott Galloway
A new biography from Kara Swisher and dot, dot, dot. I was right.
- [01:29]
Kara Swisher
But the thing is, I was right.
- [01:37]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Hi, everyone.
- [01:38]
Kara Swisher
This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
- [01:42]
Scott Galloway
And I'm Scott Galloway.
- [01:44]
Kara Swisher
Scott, we're here for your super bowl, our annual predictions episode where we look past some of our past predictions and make some new ones. Are you ready?
- [01:53]
Scott Galloway
So ready. Yeah.
- [01:54]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
Okay.
- [01:55]
Kara Swisher
You have a lot. I know. I've got a few, too. So you do. Listen up to both of us. Okay, we're starting things off on the subject of AI because we have to, we're obligated by legally to do so. First, let's listen to a prediction you made on last year's prediction podcast.
- [02:10]
Scott Galloway
2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be open video. OpenAI and Nvidia right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI, 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new wind tell, and people start referring to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.
- [02:32]
Kara Swisher
Well, interesting. That was absolutely true. Except now it's code red at OpenAI. How things have moved. And obviously Nvidia is still on top but facing some possible competition in 2026. Any thoughts on that?
- [02:45]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, I don't know if that was that provocative a prediction because it was already shaping up. The prediction I'm most proud of from last year is that every year I have a big tech stock pick and last year I picked Alphabet and it's up 68% since the prediction. Um, but it was already sort of forming. But yeah, they continue to sort of be the, the duopoly. What's interesting is similar to Wintel, people are coming for them. Right, Very good point across, you know, on both dimensions, but especially OpenAI. And I like your analogy that OpenAI might be the Netscape of, of our generation.
- [03:21]
Kara Swisher
Yeah, I'm always waiting, was it Netscape or Google? I think we're at that moment right now. Um, it was Google for a little bit, but now it looks like Google's decided to be Google. Any and you about that stock but great one. Okay, time for both of us to have an AI prediction for 2026. Scott, you got a prediction about AI stocks?
- [03:38]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, I think there's going to be a major drawdown and it's because.
- [03:43]
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- [04:01]
Kara Swisher
AT&T.
- [04:02]
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- [04:48]
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- [05:56]
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- [06:25]
Scott Galloway
It all goes back to geopolitics essentially. Trump has adjusted tariff policy with China 17 times so far in a second term. I think they've pretty much had it with this guy and they're now in the closest thing they could get into short of a hot war. And so basically, China is totally diversifying away from the US in terms of exports. Their export volumes are up 40% since 2019, while imports are only up 1%. And over the same period, the US share of China's exports fell from 17 to 10%. And reason that that sets the context here and that I think China's about to go for the jugular here and I think that they're going to massively engage in what I'll refer to as AI dumping, and that is these open weight models, including QN3 Max, these models are just much cheaper, lower power consumption. And everyone from Airbnb to other Fortune 500 firms are starting to recognize that these things are lower cost. And I think essentially China is going to say, okay, the fastest way to kick this guy in the nuts is that he's made a giant bet on AI, including the S and P and his entire economy on AI. And we're just going to start dumping AI into the US market. And as a result I think you're going to see a massive rerating down. And also the harsh truth is these open weight models coming out of China are getting to technical parity. And the fastest way to build a big business is to offer 80% of the leader at 50% of the price. And that's what they're doing. So I think you're going to see massive pressure placed on OpenAI and I think that is going to and other US based models and I think that's going to cause a re rating down of these stocks. And even 80% of A16Z startups use Chinese open source models. So anyways, I think we're going to see a massive RE rating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China.
- [08:22]
Kara Swisher
Yeah, that means data centers go down, the whole thing. Oof. Ouch. Watch out below.
- [08:27]
Scott Galloway
All right.
- [08:28]
Kara Swisher
Mine is in an area that I keep thinking about a lot. I've spent a lot of time thinking about it, which is robotics. And I think the combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough. I really do think that we are not paying attention to what all the innovations happening there because we get focused on Elon, stupid optimist robots that are running around doing our laundry. I think in manufacturing and all kinds of areas, robotics are going to really start to become, become really interesting cars. I consider that robotics, the smarts of them combined with robotics is really where the big changes we're gonna see in our society. I just do, I don't mean again a bot making your coffee. But it's not gonna look like what you think that, you know, because I think it's really hard, as many robotics people tell you, to make a hand work. And where we're focusing is so anthropomorphic that I think it's a mistake. I think there'll be robotics in lots and lots and lots and lots of things, and especially when combined with AI. And in Korea they have these essentially ectoskeletons now have AI embedded in them and they work so much better. And so you can see it being applied all over the place. And these are braces, they look like braces. And before they were mechanical, that would help you walk. Now AI helps decide how you do it. And I think they're nothing short of miraculous. And so that's where you're Going to see some. That's my area in AI, is focusing in, on its applications in a wide range of different products across robotics.
- [09:53]
Scott Galloway
All right, I love that. And just to add some texture to that, I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI, It'll be an AI application, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo, and as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon. And we'll come back to that.
- [10:12]
Kara Swisher
Yeah, absolutely. And they have been early to that, by the way. Okay, next category. Business. Scott, let's listen to a prediction you made back in April.
- [10:21]
Scott Galloway
I think you're going to see in the next one or two weeks a cadre of Fortune 500 CEOs. Republicans, stand up. Business leaders stand up and say, okay, enough already. While you all claim he's playing 4D chess at this point, we're worried he's going to start eating the pieces.
- [10:38]
Kara Swisher
Not so much. Although Jamie Dimon sort of yelled at Maria Bartiromo the other day. But not so much.
- [10:44]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, Yeah. I don't have any comment.
- [10:49]
Kara Swisher
Yeah, they really have turned out to be profiles and non courage. That's really something.
- [10:53]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, I thought. I just don't. And I still don't get it. Quite frankly, I still don't understand.
- [10:59]
Kara Swisher
They're starting a little bit.
- [11:00]
Scott Galloway
What's the point of having all this money and if you don't nod to the principles that got you this wealthy? I just don't. I don't get it. I don't understand it. These guys are bulletproof. What are they worried about?
- [11:13]
Kara Swisher
Yep. Agree. I think it's just one of the most disappointing things you've seen here. I think it's surprised everybody, a lot of people. Anyway, you've got an investment prediction here and then I have one. Go ahead.
- [11:23]
Scott Galloway
I mean, my stock pick.
- [11:24]
Kara Swisher
Yes.
- [11:25]
Scott Galloway
So my big tech stock pick. Every year I pick a big tech stock pick. And my stock pick this year is. And when I say outperform, if, if AI, if AI throws up, everything's going down, folks. What I'm saying is this stock will perform better. That might be down 10 instead of down 50. But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon. It's been an underperformer year to date. It's only up 7%. And also its revenue per employee is down 28% versus up 49, 56 and 62 at Metalphabet and Microsoft, respectively, because they have made massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in. See above what Kara said. Robotics. But what you're going to see here is that they've started laying off employees. I'm not saying that's a good thing, but Google's laid off 2,500 Meta 4,600, Tesla 14,000. Amazon's laid off 18,000. And what's just so striking is that Amazon is predicting it can double the revenue at its retail group, which is as big as top line revenue business with no increase in employees. And I think the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics at Amazon is huge. And Amazon is really the ford of the 21st century and that is over several years. Ford was able to take the time to manufacture a car, down 90%. And Amazon just since its acquisition of Kiva robots has been able to take down click to fulfill or to ship down by 80%. And if you want to talk about your prediction around investment in robotics, here is the number of operational industrial robots. China has 2 million. The US excluding Amazon has 400,000. Amazon has a million operational industrial robots. So Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational robots, industrial robots is the rest of the nation combined. So they have made an enormous and typically margin expansion from Amazon has come from its media group where you have forced to advertise, or from its cloud group. But you're going to see a margin expansion at the hands of operational efficiencies from robotics and AI in its retail group. It's also, I don't want to say cheap right now, but reasonably priced. It typically trains at a PE multiple over the last five years of 58, now it's at 33. And its enterprise value to EBITDA is usually 23 and now it's 17. So in sum, I think it's fairly, it's a fair value right now. And I think you're about to see the mother of all margin expansion at the hands of AI and robotics. So my big tech stock pick for 26 is Amazon.
- [14:17]
Kara Swisher
So Amazon, it is really interesting. There's a lot of IPOs coming up, we've talked about them, SpaceX, a bunch of others, and I think that's all very interesting, but you talked about that there was a lot of worry about the stock market declines a couple years ahead of the decline. Right. I just feel like with this midterm election coming up, we may have more of a stock market downturn before that. I don't like to call these things, I'm not an expert in this way, but investors feel very fragile, it seems like, and anything affects them. And I know it's been a surging stock market. It really has sort of against all the odds and all the deficits. And it seems to like ignore that. But I don't think it could ignore it for two or three more years. I think sometime in 2026, maybe right after the midterms, which I think everyone needs to be paying attention to, obviously this year we may start to see like maybe the stock market not being so good for Trump. I think that has helped buoy him. And as you said, if China does things like you were talking about, you're going to see where you're going to see the declines are in these tech companies. So I just feel like there's, there's going to be a real, a lot of volatility around the companies that you talked about for the first place. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. We come back more predictions. Okay, Scott, let's talk politics. I'm not sure we could have predicted most of the mess that was the 2025 politics. We did okay. We did get one thing right about a certain breakup. Let's listen to what I said in November of 2024. I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for much for too long. Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's only so much attention to go around. And I had a cold. Then let's hear what you had to say on the matter in February.
- [16:16]
Scott Galloway
I think Doge is going to be over and done by the end of the year.
- [16:20]
Kara Swisher
Okay, we got that one right. We just did. We just knew it.
- [16:23]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, but it saved $2 billion.
- [16:25]
Kara Swisher
Yeah. No, he saved nothing. He killed people.
- [16:28]
Scott Galloway
He's about to unwittingly, and I'm not saying he meant to do. He will probably end up on some lists along with Stalin, Pol Pot, Hitler. People will start to aggregate lists. I don't know if Trump or Musk will be on that list, but when you look at the hundreds of thousands of people whose fatality or death can be directly linked to a lack or a cutoff of usaid, they're going to end up on some of those lists.
- [16:52]
Kara Swisher
Yeah. And I think we got the Doge thing right. They're still there. Some of them are still there. But look, it's fine to want to save money and be more efficient, but the way he did it was so ham handed and cruel and pointless. I met some USAID people last night at an event and they were doing astonishing work. And it was all soft diplomacy, soft power and stuff. Just the damage he's done because he's such a demented addict of some sort. It was really, really stupid. And I think he just wanted to break me. Break thing, buy kind of thing. And it wasn't thoughtful. There's a thoughtful ways to figure out how to be more efficient. And he didn't use none of them. And it was inevitable that he would fight with Trump. He'll still be hanging around the basket because he's such a toxic figure. And Trump will use him as he wants. But Trump certainly. Only if he has use for him will he be around. Okay, I've already made one politics prediction for 2026. Let's play a clip as a reminder. I don't know. I feel like we're gonna have President J.D. vance by the end of 2026. I get it, but he is president.
- [17:57]
Scott Galloway
You think this ends his presidency prematurely?
- [18:00]
Kara Swisher
Yes. Well, I still think that.
- [18:02]
Scott Galloway
So I can see him being impeached in Congress. He would need 66 votes or 67 in the Senate.
- [18:10]
Kara Swisher
I don't mean like that.
- [18:11]
Scott Galloway
You think he resigns.
- [18:13]
Kara Swisher
I think he's sicker than we realize. I think he's very robust looking. But I think there's all manner of. I've seen more and more doctors like, this is like. I don't know. Look, his family stuck around for a while being. His dad stuck around for a while with dementia, that's for sure. But I do think there's. I just. I don't know, I just feel like I think they're going to try to give Vance an attempt to be president, and I think that they'll run out of reasons to keep him there. And I think if he loses badly in the midterms, I think that's. He's no longer useful, let's just say. And so I don't mean killing or anything like that. I just think he's old. He's just old. Scott, as you said, biology is undefeated. Okay, Scott, give us. I have one more, but. Well, actually, I'll do mine. I would like to see in politics the shutting up of tech CEOs everywhere. I mean, when have we seen, like, can you imagine the head of Lockheed behaving like Alex Karp did in that recent New York Times thing with our favorite Canadian, Andrew Ross Sorkin? He looked demented screaming on the stage. Did you see that performance?
- [19:20]
Scott Galloway
Yeah. What was going on there?
- [19:22]
Kara Swisher
Well, they thought he was on cocaine. I have no idea. He looked crazy. That's all I know. Like, who knows? Um, they were making all kinds of cocaine jokes, but he, he Is not. I don't believe that's the case.
- [19:32]
Scott Galloway
Marching powder No, I just think he's the devil's dandruff.
- [19:35]
Kara Swisher
My experience is he's just like that. And now you're getting a fucking taste of what I've had to listen to over the decades. But I think these people, like, if I see Jensen Huang in his stupid coat anymore, like, when did we. When was the head of Lockheed around all this time? When was the head of like, these people need to sit down and shut up for a little while. Like, seriously, they just can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually. And so I would predict they need to shut up. They won't. But that's what I would like to happen. What is your prediction for you have an interesting one about the predictions market yeah, so.
- [20:11]
Scott Galloway
Well, one, I think the next bailout is coming. There was a bailout of the banks. Actually, I think that was a good idea. There was a bailout at the airlines, which was socialism and stupid. We should have let them go out of business. All these airline CEOs who used all their excess cash flow when things were good to do stock buyback.
- [20:25]
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- [20:57]
Version History Show Host
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- [21:27]
Kara Swisher
Get podcasts.
- [21:31]
Scott Galloway
Oxen collect 150 million in compensation and then Covid hits. And we're all in this together and they got bailouts. But the next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella. Basically, the S and p is now 40%. The Magnificent 10. Trump is only able to get away with the shit he's getting away with because the S and p is up 13%. So his entire presidency and our entire economy is now one big giant bet on AI. There is no way they can keep up with these expectations. So what they will do is come to Washington hat in hand and they will call it something else like a CHIPS act and they will have government backed debt of purchases of these chips in these data centers to prop up an AI market.
- [22:14]
Kara Swisher
Can we get Jensen Huang's leather coat an exchange? I should have it.
- [22:18]
Scott Galloway
It's about to become a multi trillion dollar leather coat. But I mean every industry now, the energy industry, 10% of the earnings call mentioned AI financials, 1 in 5 earnings calls are now talking about it. And also if you look at the biggest tech stocks from peak to trough, Alphabet was down 65%. Microsoft 70%. Meta lost 3/4 of its value from 2021 to 2022. Apple lost 83% of its value in the dot com implosion. Nvidia lost 90, 90% in dotcom, Amazon lost 95% peak to trough. The problem is if these companies do what these companies do in a volatile environment, the economy goes into a tailspin and Trump is no longer allowed to bomb or to murder people in the water or send in a mass secret police into American towns. So he will decide to prop up this industry with what is effectively a bailout that'll be positioned as growth. But essentially the next bailout is coming. Polymarket and Kalshi. I just can't get over how genius these businesses are because you have the ultimate marketing and that is whenever there's a big decision to be made or a big issue. We're starting to look at what these companies think because they leverage, except they.
- [23:36]
Kara Swisher
Can be so game. Scott I'm so nervous about the gaming aspect and kind of the sick ass, like that's bad. How many kids have died in this shooting? That kind of stuff.
- [23:45]
Scott Galloway
Well, oh no, there's bigger concern. Well, okay, first off, let's look at the opportunity for insider trading. It's getting down to will this pitch be faster or slower than 90 miles an hour? So okay, Eric Adams. Will Eric Adams drop out of the race in the next seven days? And they say, oh no, it's three to one. He doesn't. If I'm Eric Adams and I'm eventually going to drop out, why don't I raise 10 million bucks and drop out the next day and as a severance payment collect $20 million? I mean it's just. And the unfortunate thing is most of us don't have access to this insider information. So we are on the wrong end of a trade asymmetrically. And also when states legalize gambling, and this is, it's not really gambling. I like these things. I can't decide if I like these things or I don't like these things.
- [24:32]
Kara Swisher
I agree, I agree. Some of it's really interesting. At the same time, I'm like, so easy to game, so easy to go sick. Right.
- [24:39]
Scott Galloway
It's attempting to legitimize gambling. You're not investing here, you're gambling. But at the same time, I just appreciate how powerful these businesses are. Also, I'm going to start incorporating either polymarket or Kalshi data into a lot of my media. I just think it's fascinating what the wisdom of crowds thinks. And if you look at these things, they are fantastic prediction engines. They usually get it. They usually get it. Right, so.
- [25:03]
Kara Swisher
Or now like, you know what I mean? It feels like. So I feel like the Russian mob is like, how shall we handle this?
- [25:09]
Scott Galloway
Well, okay, along those lines, the majority of the bets in the New York mayoral race came out of the Middle East. So you don't think they're gonna start using. Because if you say mom Donnie is up 95%, that is really good for mom Donnie.
- [25:23]
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
- [25:24]
Scott Galloway
And so why wouldn't you weigh in and start manipulating these things anyways and pay attention, people. There is. And also just the downside. First off, my mom was a docent at the Bellagio hotel and she used to come.
- [25:38]
Kara Swisher
I love that word, docent. Go ahead.
- [25:40]
Scott Galloway
She used to come home armed with these fun facts. And one of them was kind of sad, is that gambling has the highest suicide rate. So one in seven men who gamble are addicted. It's got the highest suicide rate. Because if you develop an addiction to meth, people start to notice and they weigh in. You can leverage your home, spend your kids college fund and nobody knows. And people feel as if they have no way out. In addition, bankruptcies go up by a third the moment a state legalizes gambling. So there are some real externalities here. But having said that, I am fascinating, fascinated by these markets. It's going to be the vice of the year is going to be the predictions market. And I also think that they will be two of the biggest. One or both of them is going to go public in 2026. And it's going to be one of the biggest. It's going to be one of the best IPOs of 26. These things are phenomena.
- [26:28]
Kara Swisher
Can you See this going so fucking sideways. I'm going to bet on if Cara or Scott is going to die first, and then I'll kill you.
- [26:37]
Scott Galloway
Well, again, insider trading here for Lara.
- [26:40]
Kara Swisher
I'll have Lara kill you. Our producer, for example. See what I mean?
- [26:43]
Scott Galloway
The opportunity for insider trading. And is it even insider trading? How does sports betting. If you're a pitcher on your last leg here and you're about to, like, not make any more money, and you're finally up from triple A ball, and you're not going to make any more money, you just have your brother in the stands. Go pitch it slower than 90 miles an hour on this one. Pitch it faster, and you walk. You can probably walk away with another million bucks on that game. And I'm not even sure if it's illegal yet.
- [27:07]
Kara Swisher
I like that you go to sports and you don't go to murder murder like I do.
- [27:11]
Scott Galloway
Yeah. I don't think there's cheaper ways to get someone killed, probably.
- [27:14]
Kara Swisher
I know, but everything's gamified.
- [27:16]
Scott Galloway
But you want to talk about. It's already impacting. Okay. Caesars down 38% this year. Vegas. Every Vegas company that's publicly traded is down between 19 and 38% this year. Because why. Oh, and by the way, I just love the fact that we've lost $4 billion in Vegas because Canadians are no longer going. But it's. Our manufacturing base has been absolutely reinvigorated. Jesus Christ. What fucking idiots. By the way, folks, 80% of people don't want to be in manufacturing. You can't bring your dog to the factory floor. Anyway. Where I was headed with this is there's fewer people in Vegas because now Vegas is in you. Vegas is everywhere now. So you're really going to see these firms struggle. And you're going to see an enormous transition of capital.
- [27:59]
Kara Swisher
Though you can't get a massive breakfast bar. That's true for $2. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. We come back, Entertainment Predict. Okay, Scott, next up, we're talking about media and entertainment. Last year. You appreciate it would be a banner year for podcasters. Let's listen to what I said about our favorite movie. Wicked for Good was amazing, I have to say. It's a play, it's a movie, it's a sequel. It's, like, going to be an enormous God.
- [28:32]
Scott Galloway
There's a sequel now?
- [28:33]
Kara Swisher
Yes.
- [28:34]
Scott Galloway
It's make them stop.
- [28:36]
Kara Swisher
Literally.
- [28:37]
Scott Galloway
I think they should outlaw sequels.
- [28:38]
Kara Swisher
Huge box office this year. Yeah, it hasn't quite reached the first one, but, yeah, it's huge. Just so you know. $75 million.
- [28:49]
Scott Galloway
Those checks are just a few songs.
- [28:51]
Kara Swisher
No, they're not. That may be. I don't care.
- [28:54]
Scott Galloway
Oh my God, it's a helicopter. We're in a quasi Demi parasocial.
- [28:59]
Kara Swisher
Doesn't mean that.
- [29:00]
Scott Galloway
And they weigh 45 fucking pounds. Yeah, they're great role models for 50.
- [29:04]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
I know.
- [29:04]
Kara Swisher
That is an issue.
- [29:05]
Scott Galloway
Oh my God.
- [29:06]
Kara Swisher
I would say that is an issue worth discuss. I don't usually like to talk about people's looks, but in that case, they're disappearing. All of them? The entire cast. It's really weird. Anyway, I agree it's concerning. Let's say concerning. But let me say I was right. You were never right about what's popular.
- [29:22]
Scott Galloway
By the time about media.
- [29:23]
Kara Swisher
Except Pluribus.
- [29:25]
Scott Galloway
My prediction is that all World War II and color documentaries are the biggest media.
- [29:29]
Kara Swisher
I understand, Grant, but listen, you're right about Pluribus. Oh my God.
- [29:32]
Scott Galloway
Pluribus is good. Vince Gilligan.
- [29:34]
Kara Swisher
Hdp. Hdp. And John Cena. This is going in many ways.
- [29:39]
Scott Galloway
Hdp, I think I'm honest. Is that human growth hormone? I mean, I have longer erections. I'm a little stronger in the gym, but. See your doctor. See your doctor.
- [29:46]
Kara Swisher
Human derived protein. You're not caught up, I guess.
- [29:48]
Scott Galloway
Anyway, Human what? Oh, this is derived. Is this from your secret show on cnn?
- [29:52]
Kara Swisher
No, this is. This is Pluribus.
- [29:55]
Scott Galloway
Oh, Pluribus.
- [29:56]
Kara Swisher
Okay, people. Soylent Green is people. Anyway, by the time this airs, we'll know more. But let me just say it's also a banner year for dyspeptic lesbians on television. So that's really good. Difficult lesbians. Difficult are the trend and I sort of pioneered that.
- [30:14]
Scott Galloway
Anyway, speaking of lesbians, has Emily Radikosk asked about me?
- [30:17]
Kara Swisher
Not yet. Not yet. No, not yet. I'll let you know. I'll let you know. Anyway, probably sometime in she's gonna play it that way. How about sometime in the 12th of never? All right, Scott, you've got a prediction about the future of Hollywood and so do I. You go first.
- [30:31]
Scott Galloway
Okay, so short form video and AI meteor strike Hollywood. AI 1. Especially if the Ellisons get a hold of Warner. You have to wait seven minutes after the Fantastic Four just to get through the credits. More people worked on the Fantastic Four than work at Reddit and slightly fewer than Palantir. The means of production has to come way down and AI is just going to. I mean, everybody is so sentimental for theaters. Theaters have not come back. Basically, theaters are down by a third since COVID It just hasn't recovered. You're also going to see 70% of Americans 10 to 24 years old watch TV or movies on YouTube or TikTok. And then what's crazy is these short form video platforms. The Kids Diana show has 137 million subscribers, which is I think more subscribers than Disney. What's weird is that Meg Whitman and Jeff Katzenberg might have been right about short form video. They were just kind of ahead of their time and didn't have the capital. But we have trained our brains to be so short form and dopa hungry that these short form video series of 3 and 6 minute little mini episodes out of China seem to be taking off and getting real share. But back to the original one. AI is coming for Hollywood and all the virtue signaling and how precious they are is not going to mean a fucking thing. Economics to your point, and capitalism will win out here. But basically AI, which everyone is expecting is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood. And B, I think these short form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real, a real dent. And just some of the titles, my favorite titles of some of the people who worked on the Fantastic Four. Molly Cook was an assistant data wrangler.
- [32:29]
Kara Swisher
You know what she's gonna call you? That's important. That's important.
- [32:33]
Scott Galloway
They had a home economist. They had, I mean it's just hilarious. Vehicles, Art director, junior petty cash buyer. Oh, no, no. Olivia Sommery was a food stylist.
- [32:47]
Kara Swisher
Is it all women that you want to get out of work? But go ahead, have a man. Have a man. Is there a man on your list?
- [32:54]
Scott Galloway
See gender. I'm not looking at this and going man or woman?
- [32:57]
Kara Swisher
I think you're right about sex and race. Food styling is also important, just so you know. But it will be all AIed. Just so you know, food stylists, they're gonna AI this shit. But I would agree with you on both these things. You know, it's interesting. Many years ago there was a show called Quarter Life. You've never heard of it? The guy who did 30 something, Ed Zwick. Oh yeah, I think that's. He did it right. 30 something. But he had a show that was, I think YouTube only called Quarter Life and it was short 15 minute shows. And at the time it failed. But boy, I remember thinking this is the way, you know. And I same thing with Jeff Katzenberg. Like it was right, it just was wrong at the time. But this Quarter Life was really go back and find it if you can. Because it was an attempt at short form video drama over these quarter. Life was people who were 25 years old and they were all attractive and fucking each other. But it was really interesting and it was far too early for people's tastes to get there. But now it has. I watch mostly short form video now, I have to say.
- [33:59]
Scott Galloway
Where do you watch it?
- [34:00]
Kara Swisher
Oh, on Threads or Instagram usually. I don't like TikTok, it's too. But I like the pace of Instagram. I have to say, anyway, if I'm watching short form video and they're quite.
- [34:12]
Scott Galloway
Good, the sexiest thing you can say in your 30s is, I already took tomorrow off.
- [34:19]
Kara Swisher
Anyway, I have a prediction. It sort of dovetails because of what Scott was talking about and because the economics just don't work. They don't work, everybody. Hollywood consolidation just, you know, not just AI, but how everything is made is going to with these new owners and there's going to be more deals and I know you're all horrified about Netflix, but get ready, my friends. There's so much going to happen and there are questions of creativity and how people get paid, but there's just going to be less people and to make it. And it's the end. This is that moment for Hollywood. It happened already, but it's really happening now. And you're going to see enormous consolidation. The government could push it back as much as you want, but you're not farmers, by the way. You're not getting $12 billion in bailouts the way Trump will do that. You will not get bailouts. You will just, just get gone. And so I think this, this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable. Paramount, if it doesn't get, it's going to have to merge. Comcast's gonna have to buy something else. Disney's gotta move, you know, and all the tech companies, if they want to stay in this area, need more stuff for AI. Imagine a world like Scott talks about this AI meteor, like, hey, I like West Wing, I'd like another season. Like they can do that. They will be able to do that. And it will be at first stupid and then later be very good. And so you're gonna see all manner of stuff having to do with AI, all these things. And you know, even though the Paramount people can't give specifics of what's happening because they haven't thought of it, they just like to say the word AI a lot over and over again. There are going to. This is a, this is an industry ripe for this Kind of thing. Too bad. I'm sorry. I feel bad for you. But thanks for the movies. And by the way, wicked. 375 million. Rooked. Okay.
- [36:02]
Scott Galloway
Streaming has sort of been the zeitgeist of my life. It used to be Netflix and Chill, and now at my age, it's HBO Max. And lower your expectations.
- [36:10]
Kara Swisher
You know, I think you're online a lot more. You watch a lot of short forms, I can tell.
- [36:13]
Scott Galloway
I do.
- [36:14]
Kara Swisher
Because, you know, you put them out a lot. And so do I. 100%. I could watch. I can't sit for a show now. I like to watch them on tv. I have a harder time. Although, again, Pluribus. I love it.
- [36:25]
Scott Galloway
Oh, my God. I've been forced to watch the worst program in the world. It's with Shiv from Succession about a kidnapping.
- [36:32]
Kara Swisher
Oh, I heard that was good. Oh, it's awful.
- [36:35]
Scott Galloway
These people are so awful. It's all these rich people. It's like. It's like a chamber of commerce show on Chicago. Everyone in Chicago is rich and has amazing homes. It's an After Chicago.
- [36:44]
Kara Swisher
Okay, but who forced you? Who has put you a Cockwork Orange in front of the tv?
- [36:48]
Scott Galloway
Someone keeps putting it on my fucking tv. And I get drawn into it.
- [36:52]
Kara Swisher
You just don't watch it.
- [36:54]
Scott Galloway
And then I got sucked into another one. The Evil or the Devil Inside of Me, where I gotta give it Claire Danes.
- [36:59]
Kara Swisher
The Beast in Me.
- [37:00]
Scott Galloway
Her chin should be nominated for an Oscar. Her chin starts vibrating when she's emotional. It's literally like. It is such her. Go to.
- [37:08]
Kara Swisher
I love that. I love Claire. Everything. Claire James does fantastically. Yeah, she's very good. Anyway, anyhow, I'm so sorry you're being forced to watch these things. All right, Scott1. Someday you will be. Actually, that's another trend that'll be for next year. One more quick break, then it's time for predictions. Host's choice. Okay, Scott, now is the time to make a purchase on whatever we want. The world is our oysters, by the way. Sand oysters. We love them. I'm going to go first. Okay, I'm going to go first. As I said, as you noted, you've got Claire Danes on the Beast in me. You got Rhea Seehorn in Pluribus. And there's a new hunting wives coming. They're not just difficult. Lesbians are murderous. Okay, There is going to. There's going to be so much lesbian content. Angry lesbians with guns. Angry lesbians who are upset. Angry lesbians who are fighting the hive mind. I just. This is A trend that I like. I like lesbians running shit and taking names and shutting people down. And I love Rhea Seehorn on as Carol. Hello. Carol is my favorite character of all time. Everyone's like, oh, she's such an ass. And I'm like, I love her. So. More angry dyspeptic. Go fuck yourself. Lesbians for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you.
- [38:37]
Scott Galloway
I'm a big fan of streaming video with lesbian content.
- [38:41]
Kara Swisher
Well, go watch it. Cause it's sexy as fuck. Let me just say. Yes, it is.
- [38:45]
Scott Galloway
What's it called? Who's in it?
- [38:46]
Kara Swisher
Malin Akron and Brittany Snow. There are guns. There is a lot of lesbian sex. The way kind you like is.
- [38:52]
Scott Galloway
I'll see it twice.
- [38:53]
Kara Swisher
I'm just saying.
- [38:54]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
I'm just saying.
- [38:54]
Kara Swisher
Angry, gun toting, dyspeptic. Fuck the hive mind. I don't like AI. Lesbians are the trend of 2026. Thank you.
- [39:05]
Scott Galloway
All right. Mine's not as cool as this. Best investment you don't have access to is TikTok. Oh, yeah, essentially.
- [39:14]
Kara Swisher
Did you get shares? Have you gotten in there yet?
- [39:16]
Scott Galloway
Well, no, I'm a Democrat, so it's going to dell some Saudi person. I forget who it's going to, but it's not going to anyone who wants it or anyone who's a Democrat. But they're basically Trump's forcing them to sell it for 14 billion. If you think about the fact that 50% of the earnings have to go back to China, it's effectively a valuation of 28 billion. If you assign the same multiple that you would assign to Alphabet or Meta, it's worth 120 billion. So effectively these guys are going to buy something and then get 3 to 400% return within 12 months. This is pure socialism meets cronyism meets autocracy. But again, it's happening.
- [39:56]
Kara Swisher
But you know, it's unfair for the Ellisons not to get everything anyway.
- [40:01]
Scott Galloway
There you go.
- [40:02]
Kara Swisher
That's a good one. So you won't get any. There's no way you can scooch your way in there. You usually scooch your way in.
- [40:07]
Scott Galloway
Not on this one. One.
- [40:08]
Kara Swisher
Really?
- [40:09]
Scott Galloway
Yeah. No, you can. It's only for like literally Dells. Yeah, it's. Yeah, you don't. You don't have access.
- [40:19]
Kara Swisher
Amazing. You don't even get a little bit.
- [40:23]
Scott Galloway
I'm allowed to be on TikTok. I'm starting to fucking hate TikTok, by the way.
- [40:27]
Kara Swisher
Me too. I gotta tell you, that's another prediction, I think Mark Zuckerberg. It makes A better product. I hate to say it.
- [40:34]
Scott Galloway
Yeah. You like threads and reels more?
- [40:36]
Kara Swisher
I like them. They're very pleasing. They're very pleasant. I have a great time. I find news. I still like Blue Sky 2, but.
- [40:43]
Scott Galloway
I have to say I'm on Blue sky almost never. Now I know as you're used to.
- [40:48]
Kara Swisher
Because they yell at you a lot. They yell at you? I'm using.
- [40:50]
Scott Galloway
Do they yell at me? Thank God I'm not on there. I can't handle that right now.
- [40:53]
Kara Swisher
Yes, they yell at you. It's the left yelling at you over there. The right is yelling us over at Twitter. The right is actually threatening.
- [40:59]
Scott Galloway
I'm not on Twitter. Is it really? Do they. I assume they're not even talking about us because I'm on over there now.
- [41:05]
Kara Swisher
They are. I dropped in the other. I was like, oh, you fuckers. Like, oh, go away. We don't care about you. We broke up with you.
- [41:12]
Scott Galloway
So just back to TikTok US at the price that these investors, these Republican donors are getting it. It Valuing TikTok us at less than this company called extra space storage. 711 Carnival.
- [41:26]
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- [41:54]
Scott Galloway
7 day stay required cruises, Ryanair or Kellogg's. So wow, what a great deal, right? And if you look at this thing again, if you just do the math here, it's just insane what they're going to get to buy this thing at. Anyways, I'm really pissed off about this.
- [42:11]
Kara Swisher
Let's please, by all means, give Warner to the Ellisons because they don't get enough.
- [42:15]
Scott Galloway
Their US ad revenue is 12 billion. You get a 10x multiple price of sales of Alphabet, which isn't growing as fast as TikTok US. It's worth $120 billion and they're getting it for 28.
- [42:26]
Kara Swisher
These gr. These gr. Scott's mad he's not in on it. Really?
- [42:30]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, that's right.
- [42:31]
Kara Swisher
Anyway, Scott, that is the show. Your instructions are to go watch Hunting Wives. You'll be happy. Happy New Year to everybody. We've had a great year this year at Pivot and We love you and we look forward to more in 2026. Please read us out.
- [42:47]
Scott Galloway
Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin and Christine Driscoll. Ernie Andrett engineered this episode wrong. Ronnie Polidaro edited the video. Thanks to also to Gibros, Ms. Devero and Dan Shalon. Nishat Kuros, Vox Media's executive producer podcast make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine nymag.com pod we'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.