Trump's Tariff Pause, Apple's Highs and Lows, and Musk v. Navarro

Summary

Pivot Podcast Summary: "Trump's Tariff Pause, Apple's Highs and Lows, and Musk v. Navarro"

Released April 11, 2025 by New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network

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1. Introduction and Personal Banter

The episode kicks off with light-hearted banter between hosts Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway. Kara shares a humorous anecdote about receiving an unexpected photo of Scott from a FedEx delivery, featuring him in an unflattering pose from a South by Southwest event. Their playful exchange sets a relaxed tone for the episode.

Notable Quote:

• Kara Swisher [02:15]: "I'm going to be buried with this."

2. Trump's Tariff Pause and Its Market Impact

The main discussion begins with President Donald Trump's announcement to pause his "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days amid escalating tensions with China. Trump had previously increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% in retaliation against China's 84% tariffs on U.S. imports. This move led to significant volatility in the stock market, with the Dow Jones surging nearly 8%, the S&P 500 rising by 9.5%, and the NASDAQ climbing 12%, marking its best day in 24 years.

Scott critiques Trump's handling of the situation, highlighting the economic repercussions of fluctuating bond yields and the increased cost of borrowing for Americans. The discussion underscores the broader impact of these tariffs on the U.S. economy, including higher costs for mortgages, credit cards, and business investments.

Notable Quotes:

• Kara Swisher [06:00]: "The big story is President Trump pressing pause on his quote unquote reciprocal tariffs for 90 days."
• Scott Galloway [07:01]: "Donald Trump understands that America is the greatest country. But someone needs to take the shackles off."

3. Apple's Response to Tariffs

Apple emerges as a significant player affected by Trump's tariff policies. Despite experiencing a tumultuous four-day trading slump, Apple's stock rebounded by 15%, its best performance since January 1998, following the tariff pause. Galloway discusses Apple's strategic move to diversify its supply chain by sourcing more phones from India to mitigate the increased costs from Chinese tariffs.

The hosts delve into the feasibility of relocating Apple’s manufacturing to the U.S., citing estimates that it would cost $30 billion over three years to move just 10% of the supply chain. They argue that such a shift would drastically increase the price of iPhones, making them unaffordable for most consumers.

Notable Quotes:

• Kara Swisher [23:25]: "Apple is exempt from broad tariffs in Trump's first term, but that's not happening now."
• Scott Galloway [28:07]: "Tim Cook is the business person that Donald Trump thinks he is, and that is Tim will be smart, he'll go there, he'll kiss his ass."

4. Elon Musk vs. Peter Navarro

A heated feud between Elon Musk and Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro takes center stage. Navarro recently criticized Musk’s role in manufacturing, calling Tesla an "assembler" rather than a "manufacturer." In response, Musk lashed out on social media, branding Navarro as "dumber than a sack of bricks."

Galloway supports Musk, arguing that Tesla is indeed a highly American-made company, with a significant percentage of parts manufactured and assembled in the U.S. He criticizes Navarro’s understanding of the automotive industry and predicts that Navarro's credibility will continue to erode.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [37:14]: "Peter Navarro, I mean, my God, sit down. This guy, this is the last person you would want advising the President on economic policies."
• Kara Swisher [47:34]: "Like, you want to tariff as this, we'll respond with the same tariffs. It'll hurt us both. They will back down."

5. Supreme Court Actions Favoring Trump

The hosts discuss recent Supreme Court decisions that favor the Trump administration. These rulings include:

• Allowing the administration to pause orders to rehire thousands of federal employees.
• Lifting an order that previously halted the use of the Alien Enemies Act for deportations.
• Freezing funding for teachers.
• Granting the Justice Department more time to litigate the return of a deported individual.

Galloway draws parallels between these actions and historical injustices, emphasizing the potential long-term damage to American civil liberties and economic stability.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [41:52]: "The administration does not have to comply with an order directing to rehire thousands of federal employees."
• Kara Swisher [44:36]: "This is an astonishing attack on people who just weren't doing their job."

6. Other Political Developments

Kara and Scott address additional political issues, including:

• The targeting of former officials like Chris Craft and Miles Taylor through executive orders, aimed at punishing them for defending the 2020 election's legitimacy.
• The erosion of due process and rule of law under Trump’s administration, raising concerns about future abuses of power.

Galloway stresses the importance of maintaining robust economic policies and the rule of law to preserve America's standing and prosperity.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [46:36]: "I'd like to think that our justice system will vomit on this."
• Kara Swisher [48:49]: "The timing of this was not accidental. He did it yesterday because he wants a misdirect from people to look away from the fact that he blinked and that he is literally fucking with the global economy like a drunk driver right now."

7. Predictions and Conclusions

In the concluding segment, Scott presents his forecasts:

1. Tariff Turbulence: He predicts that Trump will continue to pause and reverse tariffs, leading to prolonged economic uncertainty and diminished investor confidence.
2. Insider Trading Scandals: Scott anticipates that significant insider trading and market manipulation tied to the administration will come to light, labeling April 9th as the "biggest grift day in history."
3. Apple’s Resilience: He expects Apple to navigate the tariff challenges successfully, maintaining its status as a leading global company despite political pressures.

Kara adds a lighter note by sharing personal insights and humorously recounting experiences related to university tours and family anecdotes.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [52:25]: "The tariffs are going to come way down. Trump will blink again."
• Kara Swisher [54:32]: "President Trump on Truth Social has been suggesting that he's open to deals to end the trade war that he started by levying tariffs on U.S. trading partners."

8. Final Remarks and Outro

The episode wraps up with the hosts briefly touching on upcoming topics and making light-hearted remarks before signing off. They encourage listeners to subscribe and engage with the podcast for future insights on tech, business, and political developments.

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Overall Insights:

• Economic Instability: Trump's unpredictable tariff policies are wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy, leading to market volatility and increased costs for consumers and businesses.
• Corporate Strategy: Companies like Apple are forced to adapt by diversifying their supply chains, although such moves are financially taxing and logistically challenging.
• Political Fallout: The Trump administration’s actions are undermining institutional trust and potentially setting the stage for significant legal and economic repercussions.
• Industry Feuds: High-profile conflicts, such as that between Elon Musk and Peter Navarro, highlight the intersection of business leadership and political influence.
• Future Predictions: The hosts foresee continued economic uncertainty, potential scandals related to insider trading, and ongoing struggles for major corporations under the current administration.

This episode of Pivot provides a comprehensive analysis of the current intersection between U.S. political maneuvers and their broader implications for the economy and major corporations, delivered with the characteristic sharpness and wit of Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway.

Transcript

[Kara Swisher]

Support for this show comes from smartsheet. Your team is innovative. Your team is ready to achieve the impossible. Innovative teams use Smartsheet to defy expectations, spur growth, and make the impossible possible. Smartsheet is the work management platform that allows teams to automate workflows and seamlessly adapt as their work evolves. Whether you're managing projects or scaling operations, smartsheet gives you the tools to cut through the chaos and reach your team's full potential. With smartsheet, the extraordinary is just another day of work. Smartsheet work with flow. Visit smartsheet.com Vox today to learn more.

[Scott Galloway]

This podcast is supported by Google. Hi, I'm Dave, one of the product leads on Google Gemini. We just launched Gemini Canvas. It's my new go to for real time collaboration with Gemini. Write docs, edit code, get feedback in iterate, all in one new interactive space. From a blank slate to a built out prototype. My favorite part? Ask Gemini to leave feedback and suggestions just like you would with a teammate. Check it out for free at gemini.google.com.

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[Kara Swisher]

It came with a card, a lovely card that said, love your private dancer, Scott.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm your private dancer. A dancer for money.

[Kara Swisher]

Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm Kara Swisher and I turn on the camera and I think, oh my God, she's finally done it. She's gone through transition. I'm like at 62 UBU. But it was your brother. It was Jeffrey Swisher.

[Kara Swisher]

It was my brother, yes. Jeff. Jeff claimed the thing. Yeah, I would look good as a man. I'd be a handsome man.

[Scott Galloway]

I would say.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, I would. It's true. I'd be a dude.

[Scott Galloway]

There's almost nothing I can say that works.

[Kara Swisher]

Yes, exactly. Let me just say something happened to me last night. I'm here in my new studio, which I'm working on getting nice and fixing up like yours, and I get a present. A FedEx guy comes and brings something and I had been contacted by your assistant MJ about sending me something and I said as Long as it's not a stripper. You were gonna send me a gift.

[Scott Galloway]

I would never do that.

[Kara Swisher]

And I said, as long as it's not a stripper. So what to my wondering eyes should appear than this? Let me explain the picture for people who can't see, people who watch on YouTube can see. It's a picture of Scott about to lift his shirt to show off his tummy to the crowd at south by Southwest. And my face is like, oh, my fucking God. How did I end up here? Sit down.

[Scott Galloway]

What series of bad decisions led me to. I love that photo. I saw that and I immediately said, by the way, that costs real money because some fucking Getty photographer took it. So I had to pay some, I don't know, Joey Bagadona's tech company, 350 bucks to get that image.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

And the frame, I think that perfectly summarizes our relationship. I love that photo.

[Kara Swisher]

And it's going on the shelf behind me so people can enjoy it and maybe. And then it came with a card, a lovely card that said, love your private dancer, Scott.

[Scott Galloway]

Huh? Huh? That's right. That's right.

[Kara Swisher]

I'm keeping this forever.

[Scott Galloway]

There you go.

[Kara Swisher]

I'm going to be buried with this.

[Scott Galloway]

Forever Is not long at your age.

[Kara Swisher]

Boom. Oh, thank you for your lovely gift. It was so thoughtful. A picture of you. So speaking of things that about you, you just announced your new book. I love the COVID I love the COVID Oh, thanks.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, you were the thing that tipped us over. I had all these pictures of me, and I'm like, the book is called Notes on Being a Man, and I'm like, I'm not comfortable presenting myself as, you know, the aspirational man because it's just not true. But I like the more feminine writing, like notes and everything.

[Kara Swisher]

And, yeah, it's very. It's got a feminine tone to it. It looks lovely. It's elegant. I like the ones with your pictures on them. One with you as a kid and as an adult, I like that. But that could be on the back, right? Or inside or something like that.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. But this book isn't about me being the hero. It's mostly about my shortcomings. And it really is kind of. It's a lot of data, and it's sort of like where I screwed up and what I learned about trying, you know, trying to lean into this more aspirational vision of masculinity. But I was much more comfortable not having my picture on the front because I've decided that publishers pretty much do nothing but Argue over the title and the COVID That's their job. They do. But they came up with this, so I got to give it to them. It was their idea. So I was real happy with it.

[Kara Swisher]

It's handsome. I think it's going to be a bestseller. Explain what's happening. It's coming out early. It's coming out in November.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. I feel like I said to the publisher, we need to get this out sooner rather than later. And I got done early with it because I think the window of opportunity is closing. I think this notion of masculinity and what it means to be a man and leaning in and trying to create a or shape a positive image of masculinity, I'm like, the window's closing. This is the moment. We need to get this out. This is perishable. Everyone from Josh Hawley to Tucker Carlson are writing books or talking about masculinity.

[Kara Swisher]

So I said, let's manly. Tariffs will be in a minute.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm like, let's go get this out. As a matter of fact, speaking of which, you didn't ask why I'm in a suit and a tie.

[Kara Swisher]

Why are you in a suit?

[Scott Galloway]

I'm going on.

[Kara Swisher]

You look very nice.

[Scott Galloway]

Thank you. I appreciate that.

[Kara Swisher]

I like when you dress up. It looks handsome.

[Scott Galloway]

I appreciate that. Thank you. I'm going on the View to talk about my two topics are masculinity and tariffs. How do you dress to talk about masculinity? Do you look like a professor or do I wear a Tarzan outfit? Like what do I. How do you dress for that? So I just put on a suit.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, how was it? Did you go already?

[Scott Galloway]

No, no, no. I'm literally rocketing out of here.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay, good. Let's get to it then. Anyway, you look great. Say hi to the ladies. I love them. Tell. Say hi to Whoopi and everything. They're really great. So it's another busy news day, Scott. Jesus. Nothing stops. It's nutty. So we're gonna get right to it. Obviously, the big story is President Trump pressing pause on his quote unquote reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. I just don't even wanna use that word. It's just nonsense. Bringing terrorists down to universal countries. He is hiking tariffs on China even higher to 125% in response to China's latest retaliation move raising tariffs on the US to 84%. The market skyrocket on this pause news, although the dow surged nearly 8%. But it had been down rather significantly. It's not quite back where it was. But The S&P 500 added 9.5%. The NASDAQ was up 12%. Best day in 24. Except that he had caused the decline, of course. He initially told American people to be cool about the tariff turmoil, later explained his reasoning for reversing course, which is I'm sorry, just not true. But let's listen anyway.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I quote that people were jumping.

[Kara Swisher]

A little bit out of line. They were getting yippee, you know, they were getting a little bit yippee a little bit afraid. I'll tell you who was yippee. Donald Trump. That's what happened there. 100 frigging percent. It's such a shift and they're trying to spin it as a victory. They created. It's like an arsonist explosion explaining how they put out the fire. The White House is spinning as the art of the deal victory. But honestly, he made a mess and now he's trying to recover it. But he was very spooked by after a major treasury bond sell off with 10 year yields relating 4.5% which is insane because it means we have to pay more for bonds and then we'd have all this debt. And he acknowledged he was watching the bond market saying people were getting a little queasy again. He was queasy. People have been telling. He told people not to become a panican like a Republican, but a panicked Republican, a word he coined apparently new party based on weak and stupid people. But honestly, he's the panican here. He panicked and smartly so. It was a good reason to panic. He's also been accused of market manipulation by some Democrats, including Senator Adam Schiff, who's calling for an investigation hours for announcing the pause that sent markets surging. Trump posted on Truth Social this is a great time to buy. He put DJT at the end of his post as initials but also the stock checker for Trump media. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was asked by CNBC's Melissa Lee about Trump's actions in so many words. Let's listen to this clown. Earlier this morning, before the pause, he, he put out a message saying it's a great time to buy. And here we are, here we are. Much higher. I'd always pet on Donald Trump every.

[Scott Galloway]

Time I was bet on.

[Kara Swisher]

He also wrote djt, which is a ticker for, for his media company.

[Scott Galloway]

No, no, no.

[Kara Swisher]

Every, every text. That was just, every text he sends to me. That's his name. But that was a great time to buy the market, right? I mean, uncanny. Donald. Look, Donald Donald Trump understands that it's America is the greatest country. All right, we are the greatest country and we have the capacity for incredible greatness. But someone needs to take the shackles off. I mean he's such an idiot. I mean every time he speaks I want to cringe. The White House has rejected any claims are wrong doing saying Trump just reassuring the markets and Americans about economic assertive but it just feels like a grift. So first let's talk about what's happened and then we'll talk about what's next.

[Scott Galloway]

So Scott, your take a decent term for this president would be president blink. He blinked on TikTok, he blinked on this. And a friend of mine, Justin, who's the chief investment officer of Millennium which is one of the most successful funds in history, I had dinner with him Thursday night and I asked him about this and he said oh yeah, no, he's going to blank the adult in the room here is the 10 year and the adult said get your head out of your ass. And he was thinking that all of these nations would acquiesce to the biggest customer in the world. And of course they didn't. They all imposed reciprocal tariffs. So you think oh this is going to hurt Mexico. Sure it'll hurt Mexico. They implement reciprocal tariffs and which makes goods brought in imported from America more expensive. What Donald Trump decided to do or tried to do was declare war on everyone all at once. Meaning our entire import economy goes up in price for Americans. The markets responded. I mean quite frankly that interview on CNBC just did not do her job. She was like isn't this great? The markets are up. No. Even after the rip up yesterday the markets gave up seven months of incredible gains in three days. Apple lost the value of Walmart and unfortunately the market doesn't appear to have knee pads and just want to blow this guy we are in. At some point people are going to realize we are in the car with a guy who's got his hands on the wheel who is blackout fucking drunk. And the only person in the car saying hey maybe you should pull over or let someone else drive. Is the 10 year bond in the markets.

[Kara Swisher]

Can you explain for people who don't understand what happens if the bonds yields go up? That means we pay more for the money we borrow and so does everybody else. Mortgages, everyone else.

[Scott Galloway]

Credit cards, student loan debt, payments, mortgages. The cost to borrow money and build another plant or hire more people. So you build fewer plants and hire fewer people. The cost of everything goes up and when yields go up People say, well why wouldn't I just invest in the credit markets instead of the stock market? So the stock market also goes down. So one of the many reasons for our incredible prosperity is America as a whole has access to cheaper credit. We can borrow money less to make forward leaning investments in any country in the world. And when it spikes, it's basically saying people are saying you need to give us more because you become a riskier bet. And unfortunately we talk a lot about toxic masculinity. The thing that's hurting America most right now is toxic uncertainty. And that is while he pulled the knife out of the back halfway yesterday by saying there was a pause because he blanked. Let's be clear, the wound is going to take years to heal. Because what's happening right now is the entire world is reconfiguring their supply chain around America. They don't want to use our services, they don't want to use our manufacturing. And initially he thought, okay, I'm going to accomplish a few things, I'm going to bring jobs back to the U.S. i'm going to reshape global trade and I'm going to raise a bunch of revenues. None of that has happened. None of that has happened. None of that is going to happen. And by the way, he's blinked and he said no, just kidding. In addition, just to go to the comment about the rip up here and you sent me a text on this and it was so I literally had just threaded something. Yesterday, April 9th, we'll go down in history is the day where more insider trading took place than any day in history. I've been trying to figure out how to play this market and the only thing I can figure out is the volatility is quite frankly, and I don't do this at home, I have the money to do this. Most people don't. And I do it at a small extent and I imagine a worst case scenario because it is a risky strategy. But the way I've been playing it is I sell options because the VIX has gone way up. So the price people have to pay you to write them an option, a call or a put goes up. So I've been writing calls now Yesterday I follow Apple, the calls at 200, right? We're trading at 40 cents. Cause the stock was at like 170. The options in Apple went fucking crazy about 10 minutes before its announcement. So somebody knew. And if you were like me and you were writing a call, I didn't do this. But if you wrote a call, someone had to pay you 40 cents because you sold it cheaply because it was way out of the money. Five minutes later, that call was worth $4. Just that one strip of options someone made and lost a third of a billion dollars. And how did all of these people know about this before? So is it fair to speculate? I'm not accusing, I'm speculating. Well, when you have a guy that sets up a Swiss banking account in the form of a meme coin where anyone can put money in. This administration has just shown such a lack of care.

[Kara Swisher]

They might have just been on his signal group. I mean, who knows?

[Scott Galloway]

But word got out.

[Kara Swisher]

They could have just. Word got out for sure. This is the sloppiest, most poorest white house going. And who knows who's nearby, who called people. Suddenly, Bill ackman turns from critic to what a great job deal. I'm sure he made money in this. I would love to see.

[Scott Galloway]

Or he just calls his biggest donors and goes wink, wink, by the way, I just get the sense the market's gonna go up today. I just get the sense I'm reconsidering tariffs. And it's not hard to realize the market's gonna rip up.

[Kara Swisher]

And also I will say I interviewed Bill. I had a tariff panel yesterday, which is probably actually it still hold. Bill was talking about these bonds. He said these bonds, the Japanese and especially the Chinese couldn't wreck our economy in two seconds. Not buy them, not do you know, all kind. They are our biggest creditors and they can just put us down. Just like by either not buying. Flooding the markets with treasuries, making the yields go up. The fact that he didn't know this or didn't realize what his situation we're in because of the treasury bonds is just. And to say, like it got the yips. He got the yips. And he, by the way, he should have gotten the fucking yips. Because if that happened, it would have been a disastrous economic meltdown the likes of which we would never have recovered from for decades. That's the thing. He was this close to taking us all over the edge. And the fact that he didn't does not deserve any credit. It does not deserve any good job, sir bullshit like the ackmans, who's such an oily factotum to Trump. But anyway, this is just temporary relief, though we're now 90 days of uncertainty. What should companies be doing in the meantime? And these massive Chinese terrorists. The back and forth has been likened to a game of chicken. I think Trump blinks again. Mr. Yip blinks before Xi because they have the Treasuries. They've got a lot of. Again, we are doing favors for China over and over by this behavior. So what would you do if you're a company and talk about the China thing? Because they were also touting. We're now really focused on China, which by the way, we should have been focused in on the first place and not this, this fucking nonsense, this other tariff. But it's only 90 days. So. Thoughts?

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I can tell you what companies, non US Companies are doing. They're rerouting their business plans and their supply chain and excising American vendors, manufacturers out of their supply chain.

[Kara Swisher]

No more discounts, by the way, from.

[Scott Galloway]

China, too, to Americans that will take years to repair. To give you a sense, the two stories that illuminate just how what a clown car our economic policymakers are right now is that one, it appears, these strange tariffs that he initially thought he would impose on every country in the world, he declared war on everyone but once. So it goes back to the Winston Churchill quote, and he's credited with this, but supposedly it was Victor Hugo that said, at first there's only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them. He's decided to fight the world without his allies. Is that all those ridiculous numbers around tariffs that we couldn't figure it out, it ends up that somebody fed it into ChatGPT and the exact numbers fed back. So they're using ChatGPT to figure out economic policy. And then my favorite is the guy who has been the whisperer, the tariff whisperer is Peter Navarro, a senior policy and economic advisor. And it ends up that the book that Jared Kushner found, Death by China by Peter Navarro, that supposedly is the bible for this tariff strategy, cites this economist and all his policies, and it ends up the economist is fake. This person doesn't exist.

[Kara Swisher]

It's an anagram of his name.

[Scott Galloway]

So this is what we have. We have ChatGPT and a fake economist in a book that didn't sell, dictating the economic policies of the largest economy in America.

[Kara Swisher]

So who is going to win in this China? So if you're an American company, what should you do? Because it's 90 days of uncertainty. He hasn't removed the uncertain.

[Scott Galloway]

My view is the following, is that if someone is screaming nonsense at you and threatening you all the time, it is impossible to predict what is going to happen tomorrow with this guy. So quite frankly, what do you do? I think you just, you keep calm and carry on and that is you don't change your plans. You maybe quite frankly, diversify a little bit from not. This is so hard to predict. And my feeling is when you don't know who you're waking up next to the next morning, you just carry on with your life.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. No gold in the yard, in a hole or anything like that?

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, no. Well, from an investor standpoint, we talked about this last week. I won't give it financial advice. I'll just tell you what I've been doing for the last five months. Not because I have insight into Donald Trump's mind, but the trade that has paid off for the last 15 years is just put more money into US growth stocks. Everything is cyclical. I think that run is coming to an end when Apple trades at a PE of 36 and it's not growing and you can buy good companies for 12. A PE of 12. I'm diversifying into non US markets. So that's what I would do as an investor. I would say, okay, if you're in the S and P and you think you're diversified, you're not. You need to diversify geographically.

[Kara Swisher]

And if you're a company head, what do you do? A US company. Jesus.

[Scott Galloway]

Jesus Christ. Well, okay, so this goes to moral. I have been so disappointed that all of these Fortune 500 CEOs who wake up in the morning and look at themselves in the mirror and say, hello, Mr. President. I bet two to 300 CEOs of Fortune 500 companies think in the back of their mind they can invest.

[Kara Swisher]

Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon's so thirsty for presidency.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I think most of them think there's an outside shop particularly thirsty.

[Kara Swisher]

But go ahead. Probably be.

[Scott Galloway]

You tell a 50 year, 58 year old man who is very talented and has been successful his whole life, which you have to be to become the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, that you should be president. He's inclined to believe you.

[Kara Swisher]

Right, I get it.

[Scott Galloway]

Anyway, so if you want to be president, the key quality is leadership and that is doing the right thing even when it hurts. None of them are doing the right thing, which is calling this shit out for fear that it's going to take their stock price down.

[Kara Swisher]

Because this guy calling it out, some.

[Scott Galloway]

Of them, this guy out of the Autocrat Houndbook, is basically saying, if you go against me, I'm going to, you know, I'm going to target your company specifically, which is straight out of the autocratic handbook. And so what, the CEOs who are just focused on short term shareholder value are doing are like saying, oh, you're a great guy. You want to see who's going to get exemptions from the tariffs with companies? Just look at his lunch calendar.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, we'll get to that. We're going to get to that in a minute. Yeah, that's who's going to get it. Who kisses up. I think G is going to run right over him. And also the next thing, I don't think, I think they have gotten the upper hand again. They didn't have it. Now they do. China, China.

[Scott Galloway]

The definition of stupidest things that hurt other people while hurting yourself. There aren't a lot of winners here. If there is a long term, a medium and a long term winner, simply put, it's China. By the way everyone acts, they say we could wreck China's economy. To be fair, China's economy is vulnerable right now. It will definitely hurt them. And by the way, the percentage of trade, of exports coming into America as a percentage of their total has gone down 7 percentage points since the first Trump administration. And our exports into them have gone down 4. So we're both less reliant on each other because we're not getting along. But be clear, they've diversified away from us more. In addition, there's a couple things that put them in a power position, and we don't like to admit this. Americans are wimps when it comes to enduring pain. The Chinese and especially the Russians are a little bit more resilient. They're willing to take pain. If all of a sudden, if 77% of toys under the Christmas tree are from China, if these tariffs go through, which they won't, he will blink yet again. But if they were to go through 90% of Americans on our fixed budget, if the price of toys doubles, that means instead of 10 gifts under the Christmas tree, you're gonna have six. That means your iPhone's gonna go from a thousand bucks.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, we're gonna get to that specifically in a second.

[Scott Galloway]

Okay, I'm sorry. I keep jumping ahead, but the bottom line is Americans, quite frankly, just aren't willing to endure. Women are born with an instinct to endure more pain because they have to go through childbirth. We're the man in this relationship. America, quite frankly, has a lower tolerance for pain than China. And in addition, they aren't nearly as dependent. I believe we're just more dependent upon them than they are on us.

[Kara Swisher]

Correct. Especially around the treasuries. They could wreck us. I don't think anyone realizes how China could wreck us if it fell also, by the way, it's in our infrastructure from a cyber point of view. I just got a large they are everywhere in this country and if you think you and I believe me, I believe them to be an adversary. But the handling them, this is just. He is so stupid. They now know what his pain point is.

[Scott Galloway]

He blinked on TikTok. He blinked on this. By the way, these tariffs, these tariffs are not going to go through. There's no, there's no fucking way Americans are going to pay $2,300 for their iPhone.

[Kara Swisher]

And they are indeed our adversary, FYI. So that's why it's so ridiculous. All right, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, how Trump's latest tariff moves are helping or hurting Apple.

[Scott Galloway]

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[Kara Swisher]

Support for today's show comes from Chevrolet. Whether it's a quick jaunt or a long journey, no matter where you're going, the all electric Equinox EV allows you to travel with confidence, comfort and connectivity. Equinox EV comes equipped with a standard 17.7 inch diagonal color display touchscreen, making it the largest center screen among EVs in its class. Its sleek lines and a commanding stance define the exterior of Equinox ev, while the no Compromises interior has a cargo room and storage that let you do you at a starting price of around $34,995. Econox EV, a vehicle you know, valued, you expect and a dealer right down the street. You can go EV without changing a thing. Learn [e-mail] Equinox EV based on latest competitive data, the manufacturer's suggested retail price excludes tax title, license, dealer fees and optional equipment Dealer sets final price this episode is brought to you by Lifelock. It's tax season and we're all a bit tired of numbers, but here's one you need to $16.5 billion. That's how much the IRS flagged for possible identity fraud last year. Now here's a good number. 100 million. That's how many data points Lifelock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it, guaranteed. Save up to 40% your first [e-mail] podcast terms apply. Scott we're back. Trump's tariff pause brought some much needed good news for Apple on Wednesday after its worst four day trading stretch since 2000. If you can believe that, it was like a million years ago. Apple stocks soared 15% its best day since January 1998. But the ongoing and increasing China tariffs are still a major problem for the company as Apple makes about 90% of its phones there. Apple is reportedly now planning to source more phones from India to offset some of these costs. A couple things Apple if you're Tim Cook, this is the biggest test of your mettle, I think, ever in your tenure. You've done a very good job, but this is really tough. Apple was exempt from broad tariffs in Trump's first term, but that's not happening now, despite Tim Cook's $1 million donation to Trump's inauguration. It also announced a commitment to invest over $500 billion in the US over the next four years back in February. You know what, it had done that in the previous administration and it was stuff they were going to do anyway. So that was kind of a nothing burger. So one thing Trump could do is throw Apple a lifetime with an exemption. Another exemption. One thing they're saying, which is nonsense, is that the White House says the solution is to move iPhone manufacturing to the United States. Press Secretary Carolyn levitt, who is 27, Everybody, let me be clear, she does not know what she's talking about, said in her briefing this week that Trump believes we have the labor, the workforce, the resources. Carolyn, you're an idiot. Even if that were to happen, it would cost $30 billion in three years for Apple to move just 10% of supply chain to the U.S. according to one analyst. And the price for the iPhone would soar from $1,000 to $3,500, which is a non starter. So there's no plans to move iPhones to the US at all. The short term benefit for Apple is that people have been flooding into their store to buy iPhones. Everyone's like, get one. Now there's a tariff panic happening. And how much these are going to cost? I mean, they're really squeezed. So what's their best thing? An exemption. What should Tim Cook do? Because Sucking up, D Mark, which I guess more sucking up my.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm fairly confident there will be no tariff on Apple products. One, I think he's going to blink around these tariffs to begin with with China when the market tells him what you've just outlined, that we're not as strong as we think relative to China. Two, Tim Cook is the business person that Donald Trump thinks he is, and that is Tim will be smart, he'll go there, he'll kiss his ass. And also, if you want to talk about a cult, the cult of iOS, I mean, first off, the insane notion that we want to bring these jobs back. Dave Chappelle summarized it perfectly. We want to wear Nikes, but we don't want to make them. The average assembly wage of an assembly line worker, entry level in China in an apple factory is $500 a month. We want to bring those jobs back to America. You think you want to enrage a cult? Take iPhones to 3500 bucks and then you're going to see the largest, most valuable company in history, an American company, lose the value of the German GDP over the course of a year. You're going to take pushback people's retirements, Apple's going to have to withdraw all sorts of growth plans, and you want to piss off every millennial and Gen X in the world. Take their iPhones to 3500 bucks. Apple is not going to have any tariffs here. Having said that, what is Apple doing? And they've been doing it for a while, they're trying to diversify their supply chain out of China for a number of reasons. And by the way you're talking about analyst Dan Ives, just to get 10% out of China takes three years and costs $40 billion.

[Kara Swisher]

By that time, Trump will be gone.

[Scott Galloway]

So this notion that I am fairly confident, folks, you're gonna be able to have your iPhone at the same price as now because one, I think these China tariffs will not last because this is what she, this is how she thinks of Trump right now. The same way Logan Roy feels about his children in succession. You are not serious people. She looks at Trump and he's like, you are not Serious people. We are not backing down. We didn't back down on TikTok. All these extensions are. I'm serious now. We're gonna ban you unless you sell to Larry Ellison and Elon Musk. They're like, okay, hold my fucking beer. That's what they're saying now. Okay, you want to tariff as this, we'll respond with the same tariffs. It'll hurt us both. They will back down. He will blink yet again on China. And even if there are tariffs on China, he will come up with a reason not to inflame a cult that is even stronger than the Maga cult And that's the iOS cult. And Tim Cook will go back, go down to Mar A Lago, tell him he's a genius, show him a new iPhone with his picture on it with golden crusted leafed picture silhouette of Donald Trump and he will find an exemption for Apple. I just the idea that the iPhones are gonna go to $2,200, much less 3,500 or that we're gonna bring back those millions of jobs of people screwing in little like every time they open.

[Kara Swisher]

Their mouth, I'm like, what are you talking about? Like where, where are you going to put these factories? And who's going to. Oh, oh God. We will automate them before. And by the way, there are advanced then they always drag out advanced. We're going to do advanced manufacturing. It's already being done here. Carolyn Levitt, you dumbass. We have Gorilla Glass. They're already doing what they the high level stuff here and creating jobs and they think you're so stupid. I just, just, I've got so many calls from tech people like, how stupid are they? And I was like, seems like extremely so because they don't understand that why would you build a factory here with this lunatic in charge? You never know what he's going to do. If he's going to arrest you, he's going to do, you know, I mean he. Or make your life hell. I don't know if any of this stuff is going to last, but it's so chaotic. It's like a monkey flinging feces at all of us. So we're just going to duck until he goes away.

[Scott Galloway]

Apple is the most valuable company in the world. Or was briefly went to number two. I think it's back to number one. We have hundreds of or they have hundreds of thousands of people working in their supply chain and factories in Foxconn and in China. Those people make between $500 between kind of $20,000 and $40,000 a year. We've outsourced those jobs to China. Probably the most robust supply chain ever on a consumer level in history. Maybe the exception of the supply chain of the Manhattan Project that was kind of invented overnight and coordinated to create the bomb and save the world. Anyways, we held on. Apple has hundreds of thousands of employees across the west. And here's what they're in Design, product management strategy.

[Kara Swisher]

Exactly.

[Scott Galloway]

The higher end stuff that average about $210,000 a year.

[Kara Swisher]

Better jobs, smarter information technology services.

[Scott Galloway]

So we have outsourced $500 a month, $20,000 a year jobs such that we would have more money to invest and grow our top line revenues such that we could pay more Americans $200,000 a year. Nike. Nike doesn't want people making two bucks an hour putting together Air Jordans. They want people who understand branding and sports sponsorships and great retail. That again make about, I think 150 to $180,000 a year. And if you want to bring back those jobs and pay people minim some plant in Lansing, Michigan, they'd rather work at McDonald's.

[Kara Swisher]

Everyone else, they would do better at McDonald's. They would do better at McDonald's. They would do better at Amazon. It's just, oh God, they're so dumb. Speaking of dumb, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Elon Musk's escalating feud with Peter Navarro. In this case, team Elon.

[Scott Galloway]

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[Kara Swisher]

Oh wow, a real person. Yep.

[Scott Galloway]

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[Kara Swisher]

Well, I've got a complicated project.

[Scott Galloway]

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[Kara Swisher]

Hmm, I just might have to do more.

[Unknown]

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[Kara Swisher]

So the first room we're looking at.

[Scott Galloway]

Is for shoplines.com now and get up.

[Kara Swisher]

To 45% off with minimum purchase.

[Scott Galloway]

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[Kara Swisher]

President Trump on Truth Social has been suggesting that he's open to deals to end the trade war that he started by levying tariffs on U.S. trading partners. The administration says these Liberation Day tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs back to America. Why is that so important? There are some really dumb ways to answer that question. When you sit behind a screen all day, it makes you a woman.

[Scott Galloway]

Studies have shown this.

[Kara Swisher]

Studies have shown this and some much smarter ones.

[Scott Galloway]

This is a policy at the end of the day that's oriented toward helping.

[Unknown]

Some of the folks who have really.

[Scott Galloway]

Been, been the losers in the economy and have been left behind for a long time.

[Kara Swisher]

Coming up on Today Explained, the best minds. The White House advisor who's gone ham on tariffs defends his position weekday afternoons. Today explained. Helps you make sense of the mess. Scott. We're back with more headlines. The feud between Elon Musk and Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro is heating up. And Scott and I are on Team Elon this time. Musk called Navarro, quote, dumber than a sack of bricks in an X post on Tuesday. That was in response to Navarro saying on CNBC that Elon was a car assembler, not a car manufacturer because Tesla relies on parts around the world. Again, Press secretary Carolyn Levitt, who I like to call Tracy Flick, had this to say about it when asked about the feud. Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs. Boys will be boys. And we will let their public sparring continue. And you guys should all be very grateful that we have the most transparent administration in history. Oh my God. Boys will be boys. Oh, God, give me a break. Boys don't talk like this. Listen, I agree with Elon. I wouldn't have used some of the words he used. I like dumber than a brick and moron. The other ones I'm not so thrilled with. But look, you can hate on Elon Musk as much as you want. He's made an astonishing company here in the United States and really does know about this stuff, right? And have this, this, this like faux economist give him, tell him how things work is just an astonishing thing. And in this case, when of course it's all in Elon's self interest to get cause he needs to, you know, eat at the trough on the other stuff. But this is just, just, it's just like I'm so glad Elon called him dumber than a stack of bricks or whatever he called them. I don't know. What are your thoughts?

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, it's weird to agree with Elon. But look, I thought, and I still think the fall guy for Signal gate is going to be waltz. I think the fall guy here when this just becomes Stupider and stupider and stupider as the President continues to wake up next to an adult called the tenure and blinks over and over and over. The fall guy will be Navarro, who by the way folks spent four months in prison and has been quote unquote the architect or the whisperer here around the tariffs. And I gotta be honest, if it's a war between Navarro and Musk, I'm rooting for the bullets. I'm enjoying this. They both, you know, when you insult people like this in public, you make them look bad and you also look bad. But look, he's right. And by the way, just not again, I hate agreeing with but when Navarro calls Tesla an assembler. Tesla is the most American made company in America. The greatest percentage of parts actually manufactured and assembled in the U.S. the winner of the top four or five cars.

[Kara Swisher]

The design, the ideas behind it. Look, it hasn't been keeping up in innovation, but what an accomplishment.

[Scott Galloway]

But there's a ranking down of who makes the most American car based on how many parts are actually that go into the car actually are made in America. And the top four or five most American made cars are all Tesla models. So the notion somehow Tesla is the least assembled car from foreign products of any automobile manufacturer. The Fords are less American than Tesla. So Peter Navarro, I mean, my God, sit down. This guy, this is the last person you would want advising the President on economic policies. And Trump is going to get angry pretty fast when he has to blink over and over and over because of this guy's.

[Kara Swisher]

I mean it's interesting that he's in the sway of him. You know, Trump as you and I know, has been talking about this terrible thing since the 80s. It's real, as we talked about last week. So this guy was playing into already interests that Trump has. Right. But the fact that he's like listening to him like this, I don't think he's going to suffer. I don't think he's going to get rid of him. I don't think he is. I don't. I think he keeps them around, they can fuck up as much as they want. Which to me this is the guy who has the reputation for firing people, but he actually doesn't. Right. He's sort of, it's still pretty early.

[Scott Galloway]

I mean we're only 10 weeks in.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, that's true.

[Scott Galloway]

I don't know.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, Navarro's been sidelined and then he was trying very desperately to pretend this was the plan.

[Scott Galloway]

It might not be a press release or announcement on the West Lawn. It'll be a Vivek. Vivek Ramaswamy was fired. He just did it quietly and pretended that he wanted to go run for governor two years before the actual race. I think he's gonna. It's like, you know what they. By the way, I think Elon's gonna leave. What do they say about old soldiers? They never die. They just fade away. That's what's gonna happen here. There's gonna be a lot of people here. Just fade away.

[Kara Swisher]

I mean, I feel like probably somewhere in Elon's adult brain is like, what in the actual fuck, right? Like, he's not. He's. He may be heinous, but he's not stupid. Right? He can't. Like, can you imagine sitting there and then. Oh, God, the pretending that this is one particular one was. David Sachs was like, pretending this is a victory. It's not a victory.

[Scott Galloway]

Read that tweet. I couldn't even understand it. He was right about everything. Again. What was he right about?

[Kara Swisher]

It was planned. I wrecked it, and then he fixed it. Isn't he brilliant? Like what? Like, honestly, like, even. Even Elon couldn't, like, tolerate that. Anyway, Navarro, goodbye. Good night, Go to sleep. You were going to do, die. Go home or go back to prison. Wherever. Wherever you want to go. Anyway, couple of quick things. SCOTUS is cutting red tape for President Trump. The past week, the court has said the administration does not have to comply with an order directing to rehire thousands of federal employees, lifted an order stopping the Use of Alien Enemies act for deportations, allowed the plan to freeze funding for teachers, and Chief Justice Roberts allowed the Justice Department more time to litigate whether administration must return a man who was deported by error. A lot of these rulings are temporary. They haven't made the ruling, but they've left things in place, which is just the same as making the ruling to many people. They're not doing anything. They must be, like, they're inundated the Trump administration, just the way they're inundating law firms or media with all kinds of nonsense, is inundating the Supreme Court with all kinds of requests, and all of which take time. So these old people are working overtime in this case. I think they will put everything into stasis, which is exactly what Trump wants, meaning he can run Rofscho. It doesn't stop anything. So, thoughts?

[Scott Galloway]

I think the darkest moments in Western progressive society have been something around camps, obviously Germany and concentration camps. I think one of the darkest moments in American history that we try to airbrush over is the fact that we took law abiding Japanese families, some of whom had had boys serving the European theater, and put them in internment camps. I think that some of the black sites, to avoid Geneva Conventions laws that we spun up to basically torture combatants during the war on terrorism, I think that over time we will realize just how ugly that was. And I've said for a while that I thought similar to Germany, we were one economic shock away from doing something similar in the us but it always takes on a different complexion. But when you start rounding people up and many of them don't have a criminal record and some of them just have the wrong tattoo and you essentially send them. I'm not going to call them concentration camps because I think they're different levels of depravity and that concentration camps took the crown for a level of depravity we haven't seen since then, fortunately. But when you send people to overcrowded prisons with no due process in another country, and then you refuse to acknowledge your mistake and bring them back, which you could do with one call, that is a form that is going to be something we're going to look back on and think, you know, we really should have spoke up, we really should have spoken up. And also I just want to do a shout out. Tim Miller from the Bulwark has been really good on this. He's been highlighting this and he's been a steadfast voice on this. Folks, just be clear, this stuff always takes on a different complexion. And when you allow this to happen without due process, just be careful when you get that knock on the door. So this is one and one of the reasons, let me take it to economics, because that seems to be the only fucking thing Americans care about is when their 401k goes up or down. One of the reasons our stocks trade at a higher multiple, one of the reasons we attract the most human capital and the most financial capital in the world is due process and rule of law. And it's tempting to bypass it. If we did away with search and seizure laws, crime would go down. It comes at a cost, right? But it's worth it. And over time it creates the greatest economy, the greatest society. Think of America as a product. We offer more prosperity and more rights at the lowest cost. In terms of taxes in the history, this is the best product ever. And a key component of that value is there is expensive, sometimes awkward, sometimes inefficient due process. So be clear, when you turn a blind eye to some gay hairdresser who has done nothing wrong, who ends up in a Hellscape prison in El Salvador. And no one is willing to make a call and get him out and acknowledge the mistake. At some point, that knock on the door might come for you.

[Kara Swisher]

Correct. I mean, it's interesting, even in small ways. I have several friends who are on green cards here. Every one of two of them in the last week have had real problems at coming back into the country. They wanted to look at one of my friends messages and she refused. She said, no, you can't look at my phone, get a subpoena. And they're like, well, it would be easier on you if you let us see it. And she's like, do I have to? And they said, no. And she goes, I shall not then. I mean, and that's. They're going to. Lovely guy, he's from Switzerland. Slowed down at the border, hour and a half, two hours, just like, pressuring them to say things. It's just. Even at the smallest level, it's everywhere. And they will come for you. They're 100% come for you. Let's finish up on one more thing. I wanna talk about Chris Craft, who is head of cisa, who was fired by Trump for saying the election, the 2020 election, was legal and Trump fired him or everything was fine. And he is now going after, via executive order, Chris and removing security clearances from the company he works for, meaning Chris will probably. He's gonna hurt the company itself in order to get rid of Chris. And also Miles Taylor, who was the one who was Deep Throat, essentially the first administration, and they're going after them personally, trying to ruin and wreck their lives. And I don't know what you think about this. I have great regard for Chris and Miles, and what they're doing here is specifically targeting specific people via executive order because both of them told the truth. I don't know if you have any thoughts on that, but I will do anything to help Chris, whether it's raising a legal defense fund, anything else. But the fact that he's specifically targeting people now is American citizens who just did their job and told the truth is chilling. As far as I'm. I couldn't be more outraged by this. I'm outraged by all of them. But this is an astonishing attack on people who just weren't doing their job.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, like this is again along the lines of depravity in an autocrat's handbook, where he's trying to create an incentive program where if you say nice things about me, I might give you, call you and say, oh, by the way, I get the sense the markets are going to go up tomorrow and you get rich. Or, or if you come to have lunch with me in Mar a Lago, I'll exempt your company from these tariffs. And if you do your job and say I see no election interference, I might come after you with the full weight of the Department of Justice. I'd like to think that our justice system will vomit on this. And the only observation I would have here, other than what you said, which is exactly right, and I think it's important that we keep raising these issues is the timing of this was not accidental. He did it yesterday because he wants a misdirect from people to look away from the fact that he blinked and that he is literally fucking with the global economy like a drunk driver right now. So what do you know? Hey, folks, I mean, this is how weird it is.

[Kara Swisher]

Let's pull this one out of my pocket.

[Scott Galloway]

I want to outrage. I want to outrage the libtards in the media and get them to look over here at what is a blatant violation of the law and the autocrat that such that they stop staring at the fact that I am unilaterally taking the global economy down for no fucking good reason. So I agree with you. I think it's terrible. I appreciate you bringing it up, but quite frankly, I think it is a purposeful misdirect from the fact that he's taking the global economy down.

[Kara Swisher]

Absolutely. Except I think it's more systematic that this is. Removing clearances from this company is going to force them to. He's going to have to quit because he's hurting this company. Right. The second thing is he's reversing clearances, revoking diligence. The law firms that don't cooperate, they can't do business, which is why they're being so acquiescent, is they're losing clients, they're losing everything. If you have federal business and you can't do federal business because you don't have security clearances or the government won't work with you, you're fucked. It is part of a bigger picture of fucking with people's economics. Right. This is the goal here with Chris and Miles is to fuck with their economics and to fuck with the economics people they work and affiliate with. Not finding a lawyer is going to be hard because they fuck with the lawyers, the media is nervous, and then.

[Scott Galloway]

Illegally reward your allies.

[Kara Swisher]

This is part of the same thing. Even if it's a distraction. It's also trying to kneecap everybody so they can't come after you in some fashion, whether it's the media, the lawyers, obviously the Justice Department has lost every bit of ethical boundaries is over because that another oily factotum, Pam Bondi. It's just, I think it is a distraction. And yet it's also part of the same plan. When he does stupid theft like this with the economy. Not just stupid, but dangerous and devastating. He can then threaten people at the same time. It's a similar thing anyway. All right, Scott, one more quick rank. We'll be back for predictions. For as long as I can remember, bread has given me hiccups. I always get the hiccups when I eat baby carrots. Sometimes when I am washing my left ear, just my left ear, I hiccup. And my tried and true hiccup here is pour a glass of water, light a match, put the match out in the water, drink the water, throw away the match, put your elbows out, point.

[Scott Galloway]

Two fingers together and sort of stare.

[Kara Swisher]

At the point between the fingers. It doesn't work if you bring your elbows down, but it works. Just eat a spoonful of peanut butter. Think of a green rabbit.

[Scott Galloway]

I taught myself to burp on commands like excuse me and I discovered that when I make myself burp, it stops my hiccups. Unexplainable is taking on hiccups.

[Unknown]

What causes them?

[Scott Galloway]

And is there any kind of scientific cure? Follow Unexplainable for new episodes every Wednesday. The Nintendo Switch 2 is basically guaranteed to be the most interesting gadget of 2025. And we learned a lot of new.

[Kara Swisher]

Stuff about it this last week or so.

[Scott Galloway]

Some of the games that are coming out, some of the specs of the new device and the fact that it's going to cost $449.99. Except maybe it's not, because the other thing going on right now is tariffs. And tariffs threaten to change just about everything about tech. What it is, how it's made, where it comes from, and crucially, how much we have to pay for it. So that's what we're talking about on the Vergecast all week, wherever you get podcast.

[Unknown]

The regular season is in the review and now it's time for the games that matter the most. This is Kenny Beachum and playoff basketball is finally here on small ball. We're diving deep into every series, every crunch time finish, every coaching adjustment that can make or break a championship run. Who's building for a 16 win marathon? Which superstar would submit their legacy and which role player is about to become a household name? With so many fascinating first round matchups, will the west be the bloodbath we anticipate? Will the east be as predictable as we think? Can the Celtics defend their title? Can Steph Curry, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard push the young teams at the top? I'll be bringing the expertise, the passion, the genuine opinion you need for the most exciting time of the NBA calendar. Small Ball is your essential companion for the NBA postseason. Join me, Kenny Beachum for new episodes of Small Ball throughout the playoffs. Don't miss Small Ball with Kenny Beecham. New episodes dropping through the playoffs. Available on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. What's your prediction?

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I have three, but they're all related. 1. Blink. This guy will blink again. The Chinese, the tariffs, you know. Okay, 90 day pause. More uncertainty. More reduction in the multiple awarded by global investors on every company in the US because we are now brand America is toxic uncertainty. So this 90 day pause is ridiculous. He will. And then the 100 I think we're at 125% tariff on China. He will blink again. The tariffs will come dramatically down because quite frankly, Xi looks at Trump and says, you are not serious people, folks. This isn't going to happen. The tariffs are going to come way down. Trump will blink again. Even more confident there will be no tariffs, incremental tariffs on Apple products. Tim Cook will play Trump like a fiddle. Trump will be scared to piss off the cult of iOS, which is huge in the United States. And he will not want to kneecap our shiniest, brightest, most handsome thoroughbred, and that is Apple. That's not going to happen. In addition, we're going to find out in somewhere between three years and nine months or sooner that the greatest criminal insider trading took place yesterday. There's just no way this administration who is one. Telling the DOJ to drop all cases against a mayor accused of of conspiring with a foreign agent because he supports the administration 2. That creates a Swiss banking account that you can put money into with no record. 3. Tells all after getting a quarter of a billion dollars in the crypto community tells everyone investigating platforms in the crypto community for good reason to stop all investigations to believe that this administration did not leak insider information or engage in massive market manipulation. Yesterday we're going to find out that April 9th was literally the biggest grift day in history.

[Kara Swisher]

But will they do anything about it? Will the SEC do so? I mean, he was pretty Silent. This new acting sec.

[Scott Galloway]

Nothing will happen until January of 2029 if a Democrat is elected. Only if, Only if. But in this economy, in this digital age, there'll be digital records everywhere. They can just go through. They can use AI to go through who was buying and selling all of these options 10 minutes before. There's phone records and digital servers everywhere. And they're just, I think, going to find dozens, if not hundreds of people who have a connection to the White House who were given a wink and a nod and made millions of dollars engaging in market manipulation or trading on non public material information. This will go down as the biggest grift day in history. Wednesday, April 9th.

[Kara Swisher]

All right, that's a good one. Those are good ones. And they're all related and they're all really depressing in so many ways. Do you have anything happy? Anything? Anything?

[Scott Galloway]

I don't know.

[Kara Swisher]

I'm excited about the new Mission Impossible is coming. You want to go with me?

[Scott Galloway]

You keep talking about taking me to a movie. I don't really go to many movies anymore. You love Mission Impossible.

[Kara Swisher]

Now that you sent me an intimate picture of us, I think it's time I did.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm your private dancer A dancer for.

[Kara Swisher]

Money I'm your private dancer A dancer for money. I love that album, that whole album. I'm gonna. Let me just. That is a great album. Go listen to that album. I listened to it when I was in my early 20s. I love that fucking album.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah.

[Kara Swisher]

Did you like it?

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah.

[Kara Swisher]

Remember, she made her way back?

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. I think whenever I think of that, I think of Marisa Tomei from the movie the Wrestler. I think I could have ended up with Marisa Tomei.

[Kara Swisher]

She's a beauty. I love her.

[Scott Galloway]

She's beautiful. She's so hot. And she's age appropriate for me anyway, so.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay. All right. You're married. All right.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, her.

[Kara Swisher]

Anyway, anyways.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, wait. You want to go back to my college tour? Someone asked me to personify Duke.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay.

[Scott Galloway]

By the way, did I tell you in the middle, like, you're on these tours and in the middle of the UChicago and Duke tours? I did the same thing with my son. Totally inappropriate. Now he mentions the person giving the tour, said, we want to know the real you. DMV word. And someone asks, what's the admissions rate? Okay. 4% at Duke and the University of Chicago. Insane. Which means that. So everyone is there with their two overprotective parents looking around. So if there's 25 people or 75 people on the tour, which is the average size of the tour. One of those people, one of those kids is getting in. So I said to my son, as soon as they said 4%, I said, let's leave the tour. And he said, why? And I said, let's break up with this bitch before she breaks up with us. And he looked at me and he knew exactly what I meant. And we peaced out, and we went and checked out the stadiums and went and got food. But I'm like, it is so insane. Anyways, back to Duke. They're down to 4%. Duke will produce. Duke is the new Harvard. Duke will produce more presidents in the next 50 years than Harvard. Because presidents are one of two things. They're either really fucking impressive or ridiculously rich. Obama, Clinton, the former, you know, Trump and W. Although I think W is actually a decent man. They're really rich. And Duke has more really, freakishly impressive and really rich people than any university right now.

[Kara Swisher]

All right.

[Scott Galloway]

Duke is the new Harvard.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay. All right. But you're pieced out because you broke up with that bitch.

[Scott Galloway]

4%. Why do we want to put. Why would you want to do. That's like. That's like me.

[Kara Swisher]

It's like the hunger guy.

[Scott Galloway]

That's like me at a bar with hot people. It's just not going to happen. It's just not gonna happen. I mean, have at it. If there was Common App in a bar, I'd be all over it. But, you know, not gonna happen.

[Kara Swisher]

All right. You know, I'm not gonna go into it. Cause we've gotta go. But I taught at Duke for a semester anyway. It's lovely.

[Scott Galloway]

It's a lovely journalism.

[Kara Swisher]

Yes.

[Scott Galloway]

Beautiful campus.

[Kara Swisher]

Anyway, thank you, Scott. It was very thoughtful and it gave me a good laugh last night.

[Scott Galloway]

I'm glad.

[Kara Swisher]

Anyway, it was very touching. Walt never sent me a picture of him nearly naked. If you've got a question of your own that you'd like answered, send it our way. Go to nymag.com pivot submit a question for the show or call 85551. Pivot elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe. This week in Prof. G Conversations, Scott spoke with Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, one of our favorites. Let's listen to a clip.

[Scott Galloway]

Longer term, there are some winners. And China long term will also benefit because the United States will have given up so much reputational capital. And China will be able to take advantage of that, particularly in the Global south, but also to a degree in Asia.

[Kara Swisher]

The Japanese, the South Koreans, to a.

[Scott Galloway]

Degree in Europe, but in the near term, China gets hit really badly. In the near term, Mexico and Canada get hit really badly.

[Kara Swisher]

In the near term, the United States is the comparative winner and I expect.

[Scott Galloway]

That to be reflected in the moment markets.

[Kara Swisher]

So it's a little different from what you were saying, but in the long term.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. And by the way, on anything geopolitics, you know, go with Ian's view. He's very bright.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Scott Read us out.

[Scott Galloway]

Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman Zoe Marcus and Taylor Griffin. Bernina Todd engineered this episode. Jim Mackle edited the video. Thanks also to True Bros. Mia Silvero and Dan Shalon. Nishat Kirwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the [e-mail] pod we'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara the market is down 1100 points. Toxic Uncertainty welcome to the Trump administration.