Plain English with Derek Thompson: Episode Summary – "Is This the Chinese Century?"

Release Date: April 29, 2025

In this compelling episode of Plain English with Derek Thompson, host Derek Thompson engages in an in-depth discussion with Kurt Campbell, Chairman and Co-Founder of the Asia Group, and Rush Doshi, Director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations and Assistant Professor at Georgetown University. Titled "Is This the Chinese Century?", the episode dissects the evolving dynamics between the United States and China, exploring whether the 21st century will be dominated by Chinese geopolitical and economic prowess.

1. The Critical Decade for US-China Relations

Rush Doshi emphasizes the significance of the current decade in shaping the future relationship between the U.S. and China. He states:

"[05:38] 'If we didn't take certain decisive action in the next few years, we could lose really in this next decade... the stakes really are essentially the shape of the future.'"

Doshi outlines the multifaceted threats, including technological lag, economic dependence, and potential military defeats, particularly concerning areas like the Taiwan Strait.

2. The Shift from Engagement to Confrontation

Joe House provides historical context, explaining how the initial theory of economic engagement with China has faltered over the past two decades. He notes:

"[11:37] 'It became clear... that China was determined not just to get more wealthy and more powerful, but to challenge the United States' place on the global stage.'"

House argues that China's strategic ambitions have shifted from mere economic growth to a broader geopolitical challenge, undermining earlier expectations that trade integration would lead to a more liberal and aligned China.

3. China's Industrial Dominance and Strategic Growth

Rush Doshi delves into China's "secret sauce" for growth, highlighting several key factors:

• Protected Markets and Scale: China's ability to scale rapidly in industries like electric vehicles (EVs), consumer drones, and solar panels.

• State-Led Industrial Policy: Coordinated investments in R&D, infrastructure, and subsidies that support long-term technological leadership.

Doshi remarks:

"[39:06] 'The Chinese are making smart investments. And that's what Americans need to understand.'"

He emphasizes that China's approach combines industrial policy with protectionism and deregulation, creating an environment where Chinese companies can dominate global markets.

4. Evaluating the Trump and Biden Administrations' Approaches

Joe House contrasts the Trump administration's erratic trade policies with the Biden administration's more strategic, alliance-focused approach:

"[25:19] 'The steps that China has taken... have been carefully designed to have maximum impact on our business and overall confidence.'"

House criticizes the Trump-era trade war for its lack of coherent strategy and its adverse effects on U.S. alliances, while Rush Doshi advocates for collaborative efforts with allies to outscale China collectively.

5. The Role of Allies and International Cooperation

Rush Doshi posits that the United States cannot match China's scale alone and must transform its alliance architecture into a platform of integrated and pooled capacity. He outlines tangible steps:

• Pooling Manufacturing and Defense Capabilities: Collaborating with allies like Japan, Korea, and European nations to enhance collective industrial and military strength.

• Streamlining Trade Policies: Coordinating tariffs and regulatory barriers to counter China's state-supported market dominance.

Doshi asserts:

"[56:42] 'What we're talking about is really simple things like Japan and Korea helping build American ships... we've got much more to do.'"

6. Addressing China's Internal Challenges

While acknowledging China's formidable growth, both House and Doshi discuss internal issues that could impact China's ascent:

• Demographic Decline: An aging population that could hinder long-term economic and military capabilities.

• Economic Stagnation and Debt: High levels of household, corporate, and government debt posing risks to sustained growth.

Rush Doshi counters these challenges by highlighting China's significant current economic size and its investments in productivity-enhancing technologies like AI:

"[51:49] 'They're optimizing for a different target, a target that matters in political and economic competition. And by the way, they're doing pretty well at it.'"

7. Potential Futures and Strategic Recommendations

Towards the episode's conclusion, the guests explore possible future scenarios and strategies to ensure American resilience:

• Kurt Campbell underscores the necessity of leveraging U.S. alliances to surpass China's scale, emphasizing coordinated industrial and military strategies.

• Rush Doshi remains cautiously optimistic, believing that with intelligent industrial policy and international cooperation, the U.S. can maintain its leadership position despite current challenges.

Doshi encapsulates the episode's core message:

"[68:14] 'We have a better foundation to build on. They've got size, they've got scale... we have a great hand.'"

8. Closing Thoughts

Derek Thompson wraps up the episode by challenging the guests to consider potential miscalculations in their analysis, prompting reflections on possible oversights regarding China's resilience, the efficacy of U.S. strategies, and the benefits of China's economic dominance for American consumers. Both House and Doshi acknowledge these concerns but reaffirm their belief in the importance of proactive and collaborative measures to navigate the complex US-China landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Rush Doshi [05:38]: "If we didn't take certain decisive action in the next few years, we could lose really in this next decade... the stakes really are essentially the shape of the future."

• Joe House [11:37]: "China was determined not just to get more wealthy and more powerful, but to challenge the United States' place on the global stage."

• Rush Doshi [39:06]: "The Chinese are making smart investments. And that's what Americans need to understand."

• Rush Doshi [56:42]: "What we're talking about is really simple things like Japan and Korea helping build American ships... we've got much more to do."

• Rush Doshi [68:14]: "We have a better foundation to build on. They've got size, they've got scale... we have a great hand."

This episode of Plain English offers a nuanced exploration of the US-China rivalry, balancing the acknowledgment of China's impressive growth with strategic insights into how the United States can adapt and collaborate to maintain its global standing. For listeners seeking to understand the intricate interplay of economics, technology, and geopolitics in the 21st century, this episode provides valuable perspectives and actionable takeaways.