Plain English with Derek Thompson

Episode: The Future of Entertainment, Part 2: What’s the Matter With Broadway?

Date: October 14, 2025

Guest: John Johnson, Broadway Producer

Brief Overview

In this episode, Derek Thompson interviews Broadway producer John Johnson about the state of Broadway in 2025. They explore Broadway’s current economic challenges, demographic shifts in its audience, the impact of COVID-19, the rise of celebrity casting, and why the "middle class" of Broadway is struggling. The conversation reflects on what it takes to produce hits, the venture-capital-like risk profile of producing theater, and the broader context of entertainment’s evolution in America.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Broadway’s Recent History and the “Golden Decade”

• [07:26] How the Past Two Decades Were Boom Years
  • Johnson charts out a Broadway “tech boom” from the 2000s to the 2010s, highlighted by consistent hits:
    • “The Producers,” “Wicked,” “Jersey Boys” (2000s)
    • “Book of Mormon,” “Hamilton,” “Dear Evan Hansen,” “Come From Away,” “Waitress,” and “School of Rock” (2010s)
  • The pattern: One giant hit per year, accompanied by multiple strong shows, national tours, London transfers, and cast albums.
  • “Almost every year you had a hit, and not only did you have one hit, but you had at least two or three others that would sort of follow in its wake.” — John Johnson [07:52]
• [09:42] Pre-COVID Broadway
  • Broadway shows generated returns from multiple streams: primary NYC runs, London, national tours, cast recordings, and licensing for high school/community theaters.
  • The economics resembled venture capital: bets on risky projects, with a few blockbusters covering losses elsewhere.

2. Understanding Broadway's Economics

• [10:32] Broadway Economics Explained
  • Each show is a standalone business with high startup costs and large payrolls.
  • Recoupment triggers profits for investors and creatives, then spinoffs and downstream revenue streams begin.
  • “When a show hits recoupment, that's when it's profitable. And by that point...you say, ‘Hey, come on in on London. Come on in on the national tour.’” — John Johnson [11:10]
• [13:30] Comparisons to Venture Capital
  • Producers rely on rare, high-earning hits to cover multiple other investments.
  • “For the most part, with these shows that we're talking about, they are. And so then you have things like the cast album recording... licensing is a big part of the Broadway industry.” — John Johnson [11:34]

3. COVID-19’s Seismic Disruption

• [14:32] What Changed Post-Pandemic
  • Rising costs became universal: materials, labor, security, HR, and mental health support.
  • Audience demographics shifted dramatically — suburban “matinee ladies” (predominately women 60+) cut back on attendance, replaced by city-living Gen X and elder millennials eager for live events post-lockdown.
  • “Instead of coming six to eight times a year, they started coming twice a year post Covid. And so that was a big seismic shift.” — John Johnson [16:55]
  • Zip code data revealed heat maps shifting from suburbs to financial district, Brooklyn, and Manhattan strongholds.

4. Demographic and Content Evolution

• [18:53] Impact on Content and Theaters
  • Younger, urban audiences favor Off Broadway, intimate venues—especially for shows starring celebrities.
  • “Shows that are starting out in 200 seat theaters down in the West Village are actually more attractive to that new core audience...” — John Johnson [19:34]
• [21:06] The Growth of Celebrity Casting
  • The flood of Hollywood talent on Broadway has accelerated, driven by shorter TV contracts and more flexible film schedules post-streaming boom.
  • Both established “theater creatures” and bucket-list seekers like George Clooney are drawn to Broadway, with shows turning into full-on celebrity experiences.

5. The Central Crisis: Costs Up, Risk Aversion Up

• [23:17] Analyzing the “Crisis” Narrative
  • Costs are up everywhere due to inflation and new protocols; competition for attention is fiercer thanks to streaming and social media.
  • Musicals, in particular, are pressured: expensive to develop, requiring larger staffs, and a minimum five- to seven-year development period.
  • “Musicals take longer to develop... shows that are even landing this season on Broadway started their journey in 2018, 2017, at a time at which... the audience has shifted.” — John Johnson [24:53]
• [27:45] Criticisms About “Weird,” “Woke,” or Avant Garde Content
  • Johnson: Critique is overblown—producers are trying to push forms and capture new audiences, but hits are inherently hard to time and many projects began before the pandemic changed the audience profile.
  • “Every show isn't for everyone. But ultimately Hadestown... is not exactly like a Rodgers and Hammerstein South Pacific... but yet that show has been able to continue to be a hit five years later.” — John Johnson [28:18]

6. The Economics Solution: Rethinking the Model

• [31:14 & 32:41] Can the Model Be Fixed?
  • Discussion about the viability of dynamic ticket pricing: charging more for wealthy attendees in prime seats, subsidizing cheaper tickets for others.
  • “How to build shows smarter, how to build shows in a more strategic way... is by having them be sustainable for a run.” — John Johnson [33:22]
  • The recent realization: Can’t just assume audiences & revenues will return to pre-pandemic levels.

7. The Death of the “Middle”: American Entertainment's Parallel

• [34:28 & 35:28] The Struggling Middle Class of Broadway
  • The “event” megahits (Hamilton, Wicked, Lion King) are stronger than ever, but shows without brand recognition or massive scale, especially new musicals and plays, face financial hardship.
  • Hollywood faces the same challenge: major blockbusters thrive, but mid-range films struggle.
  • “These events, these capital E event shows…have the effect of someone going, you know what, I'll pay $250 to see Hamilton instead of $120 to take a risk.” — John Johnson [36:03]
• Surprises Still Happen
  • Breakout successes like “Omar” and “Stereophonic” prove that hits can still emerge from unexpected places.

8. Why Invest in Risk?

• [38:10] The Producer’s Motivation
  • Johnson values the magic and mission of finding shows that wouldn’t otherwise exist.
  • “If we don't bring this play to Broadway, what are we doing here?” — John Johnson [39:24]
  • Willing to risk on passion projects, knowing even a financial miss on Broadway can ripple outward in licensing and future adaptations.

9. The Art and Science of Taste

• [40:56] On Picking Hits: Art, Science, or Gut?
  • Johnson: Success requires balancing personal taste with a sharp sense of public mood—a “projected taste” for audiences who aren’t you.
  • “You have to lean a little bit more towards what you think others will, but you can't get too far away from your gut. So maybe it's 70, 30, maybe it's 65, 35.” — John Johnson [45:10]
  • Using friends, family, and casual conversations as a kind of ongoing focus group.

10. What’s Changed Most in Producing?

• [45:59] Comparing 2003 to Now
  • “I didn't think [producing] was that aspect of it, but I think having learned it, especially post pandemic, you just always have to be on your toes and you can't take anything for granted in that way.” — John Johnson [46:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On COVID’s audience shift:
  “Instead of coming six to eight times a year, they started coming twice a year post Covid.” — John Johnson [16:55]

• On venture capital parallels:
  “It’s like walking into a casino, hitting big in one table and then going, this table over here and this table over here, start doubling down your money.” — John Johnson [12:10]

• On the enduring power of mega-hits:
  “Hamilton is as big as ever. Wicked is as big as ever. Lion King…these titles are getting stronger every day. What seems to be weaker, though, is this middle class on Broadway.” — Derek Thompson [34:43]

• On risking for passion projects:
  “If we don’t bring this play to Broadway, what are we doing here?” — John Johnson [39:24]

• On balancing gut and public taste:
  “You do have to lean a little bit more towards what you think others will, but you can’t get too far away from your gut. So maybe it’s 70, 30, maybe it’s 65, 35.” — John Johnson [45:10]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [06:08] — Who is John Johnson? Background & connection to Derek
• [07:26] — The “golden age” of Broadway: tech boom analogy
• [10:32] — Economics of a Broadway show demystified
• [14:32] — COVID-19: impact on costs, security, audience behavior
• [18:53] — The new, younger city-dwelling Broadway audience
• [21:06] — Rise of celebrities on Broadway
• [24:39] — Are things “dire”? Deeper look at the NYT’s alarmism
• [27:45] — “Weird”/avant garde musicals and the shifting tastes critique
• [31:14] — Can Broadway’s economic model be fixed?
• [34:28] — The trouble with Broadway’s “middle class”
• [38:10] — Why stick with high-risk, high-reward producing?
• [40:56] — Taste, intuition, and how to pick hits
• [45:59] — How the job of producing has changed since 2003

Episode Takeaways

• Broadway faces a crossroads: surging costs, shifting demographics, and the evaporation of its reliable “middle class” of shows.
• Hits still burst forth, often from unexpected quarters, but most investors are forced to swing big or stay safe.
• The industry’s resilience is rooted in both a love for the art form and a willingness to adapt and experiment.
• The nostalgia for Broadway’s recent “boom years” is real, but Johnson remains optimistic about the cycle swinging back.

Final Reflection

This conversation captures both a sober assessment of Broadway’s challenges and a passionate defense of its enduring relevance. Johnson’s venture-capital metaphor, insider economics, and stories from the trenches—all delivered in a direct, conversational tone—make this a must-listen for anyone curious about theater, risk, and cultural change.