How hard is it to do revenue forecasts for the State of North Dakota, which is heavily dependent on revenues from commodity-driven industries like agriculture and energy? On this Plain Talk, Joe Morrissette, director of the Office of Management and Budget, gave one example: For 1$ that oil prices move, there's a roughly $36 million swing in state revenues.

The war in Iran hasn't just driven oil prices $1 over projects. It's as much as $30 over, with no real certainty on where it will level off. "It's a significant significant swing in the state's financial picture in just a short time," Morrissette said.

Still, all that additional revenue isn't expected to change production activity -- oil and gas producers aren't going to invest heavily in chasing a price that's probably not going to be sustained -- and doesn't change the state's budget picture all that much.

"Even though we've got this inflow of oil tax revenues, it's really not changing significantly," he said. "Changing a little bit, but not significantly changing our budget challenge in the next biennium."

Also on this episode, co-host Chad Oban and I react to all the controversy stemming from the North Dakota Republican Party's divisive and dismal state convention. The populist activists who now control the party are attacking incumbents for not attending the convention, yet many of them have skipped past conventions, and even campaigned against convention-endorsed candidates.

Former lawmaker Rick Becker, for instance, participate in a press conference that was critical of incumbents for skipping the convention. Yet Becker skipped the 2026 vacation to take a vacation in Belize. In 2024, he campaigned against convention-endorsed candidate Alex Balazs for the U.S. House. In 2022, he campaigned against convention-endorsed Sen. John Hoeven in the U.S. Senate race.

Plus, we react to some listener feedback, including one message which argues that Democrats ought to use the votes some Republican lawmakers cast against approving a school meals bill against them this cycle.

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