Planet Money vs. the NBA’s Tanking Problem
Podcast: Planet Money (NPR)
Hosts: Keith Romer, Erica Barris
Guests: Zach Lowe (NBA journalist), Jayna Hefford (Hockey Hall of Famer/PWHL), Sam Mewis (World Cup Soccer Champion)
Release Date: March 6, 2026
Overview
In this episode, Planet Money tackles "tanking" in the NBA—when teams deliberately lose games to improve their odds in the NBA Draft. Hosts Keith Romer and Erica Barris, joined by sports experts, break down the incentives behind tanking, the history of draft reform, and introduce three radical proposals to fix the system. The episode dives deep into the economic logic, ethical issues, and the search for a draft model that incentivizes success rather than strategic losing.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. What is Tanking? Why Does It Happen?
[00:26–03:21]
- Keith Romer explains how, each spring, NBA fans bizarrely root against their own teams—hoping for losses to improve draft positioning.
- NBA teams with the worst records get the best chances at top picks, creating an incentive to lose on purpose.
- “Right now, some of the greatest athletes in the history of the world are being paid millions of dollars to lose.” – Erica Barris [01:00]
- Commissioner Adam Silver admits tanking is at a new level and the league is exploring remedies.
- “Are we seeing behavior that is worse this year than we've seen in recent memory? Yes, is my view.” – Adam Silver [02:23]
2. Economic Logic & Perverse Incentives
[03:00–06:15]
- System design creates incentives; to change behavior, you must change the system.
- “Every system of rules creates incentives... If you want to change the behavior... change the rules.” – Erica Barris [03:00]
- Historical review: from coin flips and reverse-order drafts to lotteries with weighted odds.
3. History of the NBA Draft and Tanking
[06:15–11:04]
- Early drafts gave bad teams top picks, intending to foster parity—but teams "gamed" the system.
- The 1984 Houston Rockets saga: Lost 14 of last 17 games to land Akeem Olajuwon, fueling the league's long battle against tanking.
- "Lottery" introduced to randomize picks among worst teams, with repeated tweaks to balance hope for bad teams and discourage intentional losing.
- “It's trying to discourage, abject, obvious, horrible tanking.” – Zach Lowe on the lottery [09:19]
4. Why Basketball Is Especially Prone to Tanking
[11:17–11:38]
- The single superstar effect: One transformative player (like LeBron) can dramatically change team fortunes.
- “A superstar is uniquely valuable in basketball.” – Zach Lowe [11:28]
5. Three Radical Proposals for Fixing the Draft
I. The Draft Wheel
[12:13–16:28]
- Origin: Boston Celtics executive Mike Zarin's idea (as related by Zach Lowe).
- How it works: Teams cycle through all 30 draft positions over 30 years, regardless of performance.
- “You pick where the wheel says you pick. So there's no benefit to you being bad... because the wheel sets the order.” – Zach Lowe [14:11]
- Pros: No incentive to tank; mathematical parity; every team gets top-6 pick every 5 years.
- Cons: Bad teams might not get help when most needed; small-market teams worry about loss of access to talent.
- “Are bad teams going to get trapped into badness for longer?” – Zach Lowe [14:59]
- Why it failed: Required 75% buy-in; small-market teams feared losing their pathway to relevance.
II. The Gold Plan (PWHL Experiment)
[16:55–21:21]
- Host Interview: Jayna Hefford, Hall of Fame hockey player and PWHL executive.
- How it works: Once a team is eliminated from playoff contention, each win counts toward draft positioning; the eliminated team with most post-elimination wins gets the top pick.
- “You actually have to be the highest performing team to get the first overall pick.” – Jayna Hefford [18:48]
- Pros: Incentivizes effort all season, gives fans a reason to keep cheering; avoids outright tanking.
- “Fans... have reason to continue to show up and to continue to cheer for their team to win games and earn points so that they can earn the top draft pick.” – Jayna Hefford [19:58]
- Cons: Truly hopeless teams may still struggle to get better; teams could theoretically tank early, then try hard post-elimination.
- “If you did have a team that got eliminated very early and they still didn't get the number one draft pick, it would be challenging for them.” – Jayna Hefford [20:40]
III. No Draft (The NWSL Free Market Approach)
[23:50–28:06]
- Host Interview: Sam Mewis, World Cup Champion and analyst.
- How it works: No draft. Players negotiate and sign with any team, subject to salary cap.
- “Players who want to enter the league can just enter into conversations with teams that they're interested in... and they can negotiate a contract.” – Sam Mewis [24:44]
- Motivation for NWSL: Players seeking better leagues overseas, and the desire to give teenagers (often under 18) control over where they play.
- Pros: No incentive for losing; encourages teams to innovate facilities, coaching, culture to attract talent.
- “Clubs are competing to have the best facilities, the best coach, the best environment, the best culture, the best fans.” – Sam Mewis [25:09]
- Cons: Possibly entrenches power for wealthiest owners; may harm parity.
- “The wealthiest owners who are the most dedicated... are going to win, and the top four teams are probably going to keep getting better.” – Sam Mewis [28:00]
- Player autonomy: Skewed heavily toward player choice, addressing issues of abuse and local laws.
- “Player autonomy and seeing these players as like human beings who have a say... leads to better performance, better engagement with fans, better relationship with the club.” – Sam Mewis [28:24]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Tanking’s Absurdity:
“Somebody gonna see this score and wonder if we even tried. No, good sir. No, we did not.” – Keith Romer [00:54] -
On How Rules Shape Economies (and the NBA):
“Every system of rules creates incentives... If you want to change the behavior... change the rules.” – Erica Barris [03:00] -
The Gold Plan Visualized:
“Imagine that it comes down to the very last game of the season and Vancouver and Seattle are playing head to head... now their fans are going wild because they know if their team wins, they will get the better pick in next year’s draft. Like, that would be amazing sports theater.” – Keith Romer [20:09] -
On Player Autonomy and Social Issues:
“Different states have different laws about women’s rights and different levels of friendliness towards LGBTQ people. I also like to think that player autonomy... leads to better performance, better engagement with fans...” – Sam Mewis [28:24]
Timestamps for Important Segments
| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|---------------| | What is tanking? League reaction | 00:26–03:21 | | Incentives & history of the draft | 06:15–11:04 | | Why NBA is prone to tanking, superstar value| 11:17–11:38 | | Draft Wheel explained | 13:10–16:28 | | Gold Plan and PWHL interview | 16:55–21:21 | | NWSL’s no-draft free market | 23:59–28:06 | | Host verdicts and conclusion | 29:27–30:53 |
Tone & Language
- The hosts balance humor and sports fandom with clear economic reasoning.
- They use direct, informal, and sometimes playful language ("the pox on the game of basketball"; “Shout out to Andy and his fandom”).
- Experts and athletes provide insider context, but everything remains highly accessible.
Conclusion
Planet Money presents the NBA’s tanking problem as a classic incentives design challenge, highlighting the tension between parity, integrity, and innovation. The draft wheel, Gold Plan, and NWSL’s free agency system each offer different tradeoffs on fairness, excitement, and team-building. As the NBA looks to reform, the episode underscores a universal truth—every system creates new incentives and new loopholes. What matters most is ensuring everyone in the game, from fans to players to owners, wants to give their best effort.
As Zach Lowe puts it:
"I've come to just sort of think more about what does the world look like when everyone has to try every year?" [30:41]
Final takeaway: Just try—play the game. That’s what fans (and economists) really want.