Econ Battle Zone: Budget Showdown

Summary

Planet Money: Econ Battle Zone – Budget Showdown Episode: Econ Battle Zone: Budget Showdown | Release Date: June 25, 2025

---

Planet Money, hosted by NPR, dives deep into the intricate forces shaping our economy, making complex topics accessible and engaging. In the special episode titled "Econ Battle Zone: Budget Showdown", listeners are treated to a compelling competition where reporters tackle pressing economic debates with creativity and flair.

Introduction to the Battlezone

The episode kicks off with Keith Romer setting the stage for an intense showdown centered around the federal budget and national deficit debates. Following an exciting previous battle where Erica Barris claimed victory, two fresh contenders, Mary Childs from Richmond, Virginia, and Kenny Malone from Meadville, Pennsylvania, enter the arena, eager to claim the coveted Econ Battlezone belt.

Keith Romer [02:02]: "Our country is in the midst of a great debate about the federal budget and the deficit."

The Challenges and Secret Ingredients

Each contestant is tasked with addressing a significant economic question, complemented by a unique "secret ingredient" that they must incorporate into their presentation.

• Mary Childs receives the challenge: "What effect will extending the 2017 tax cuts have on economic growth? And why do different economic models give different answers to that question?" Her secret ingredient: Rhyme.

  Mary Childs [03:15]: "I like rhyme. I don't often get to make my shows rhyme, so that's exciting."

• Kenny Malone is asked: "What signs do economists look for to know whether our country's $36 trillion national debt has reached a level where it has begun to hurt the economy?" He must present his findings in the genre of a Romantic Comedy.

• The reigning champion, Erica Barris, faces her final challenge: "What are the three most important events in Medicaid history from its creation in 1965 to the present day?" Her secret ingredient: Musical Number.

Contestants’ Strategies and Preparations

Mary Childs embraces her challenge by collaborating with rapper RexLife Raj from Berkeley, California, aiming to weave economic insights into a catchy rhyme format.

Mary Childs [15:03]: "So that would be the Tax Foundation predicted forecast 16%, and the Tax Policy Center said 6%."

Meanwhile, Kenny Malone dives into the world of romantic comedies, attempting to create a trailer featuring renowned economist Ken Rogoff. Despite his humorous struggles with genre constraints, Kenny seeks to balance economic depth with entertaining storytelling.

Kenny Malone [13:22]: "I'm so mortified that what I'm gonna present is so bad and dumb. Oh, God."

Erica Barris leverages her musical challenge by teaming up with Merle Hazard and the Grammy-winning banjo player Alison Brown, crafting a country song that narrates Medicaid's evolution over decades.

Lara Schmiese [33:21]: "My assignment was to select the three most important moments in Medicaid funding."

Presentations and Performances

Mary Childs’ Tax Cut Rap

Mary delivers an insightful rap detailing the impact of extending tax cuts on GDP growth. With RexLife Raj’s rhythmic assistance, she breaks down complex economic models and their varying predictions.

RexLife Raj [23:32]: "Today we're going to try to figure out tax cuts. Would they boost economic growth? The political rhetoric is that it's supposed to help everybody. So does it?"

Her performance combines factual analysis with lyrical creativity, effectively communicating the nuanced effects of tax policies.

Kenny Malone’s Rom-Com Trailer

Kenny presents his romantic comedy-style trailer, featuring an imagined interaction with Ken Rogoff. The trailer humorously explores indicators that signal when national debt becomes detrimental to the economy, blending economic theory with cinematic tropes.

Kenny Malone [28:25]: "Kenny is a down on his luck. Podcaster."

Despite technical hiccups and comedic missteps, Kenny's effort brings a fresh and entertaining perspective to economic discourse.

Erica Barris’ Medicaid Country Song

Erica's country song meticulously outlines Medicaid's growth and pivotal policy changes since its inception. Supported by her talented band, EB and the Entitlement, she delivers a heartfelt narrative that underscores the program's significance.

Lara Schmiese [34:36]: "It all started in 1965 when the government said health insurance, you needed to stay alive."

Her performance not only educates but also resonates emotionally, highlighting the societal impacts of Medicaid expansions.

Judges’ Feedback and Deliberation

The esteemed panel of judges, Betsy Stevenson from the University of Michigan and David Kestenbaum of This American Life, provide thoughtful critiques of each presentation.

• On Mary’s Rap:

  Betsy Stevenson [27:01]: "I love it. I actually think it's just so clever."

  David Kestenbaum [26:29]: "I definitely admired the ingenuity and getting Raj to do that."

• On Kenny’s Rom-Com Trailer:

  Betsy Stevenson [33:11]: "Probably the most important concept is what you covered, the idea that the interest rate can go up."

  David Kestenbaum [31:32]: "Very nicely done."

• On Erica’s Country Song:

  Betsy Stevenson [37:52]: "I tell you, I love the song. I'm really glad that you jumped right into it and you smashed it with the singing."

  David Kestenbaum [37:34]: "It was very enjoyable to listen to."

The Winner Crowned

After careful deliberation, the judges commend all contestants for their creativity and depth. However, Kenny Malone emerges victorious for his effective blend of economic insight and engaging storytelling within the romantic comedy framework.

David Kestenbaum [39:44]: "Mary, yours was really great... But Kenny, the belt is yours."

Kenny celebrates his win with enthusiasm, proudly holding up the shiny Econ Battlezone belt, marking a significant achievement in his professional journey.

Kenny Malone [40:46]: "It's so big and shiny. I don't have any words."

Conclusion

"Econ Battle Zone: Budget Showdown" masterfully combines economic education with entertaining formats, showcasing how complex topics like federal budgets and national debt can be communicated creatively. Through rap, romantic comedies, and country music, Planet Money not only informs but also captivates its audience, making the world of economics accessible and enjoyable.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Mary Childs [03:15]: "I like rhyme. I don't often get to make my shows rhyme, so that's exciting."
• Betsy Stevenson [27:01]: "I love it. I actually think it's just so clever."
• Kenny Malone [13:22]: "I'm so mortified that what I'm gonna present is so bad and dumb. Oh, God."
• David Kestenbaum [26:29]: "I definitely admired the ingenuity and getting Raj to do that."

---

Planet Money continues to illuminate the economic threads woven into everyday life, encouraging listeners to understand not just the numbers, but the human stories behind them.

Transcript

[Mary Childs]

This message comes from Carrier, committed to providing climate and energy products and services to help enhance lives. More information [e-mail] Carrier for the World we share.

[Lara Schmiese]

You're listening to the NPR Network.

[Mary Childs]

Live from NPR News.

[Lara Schmiese]

I'm Lara Schmiese. A living, breathing record of your neighborhood, the country, the world, told by thousands of local journalists who live in the places where stories unfold. Backed by a national newsroom that puts it all in perspective. Hear the whole country's story. Hear ways of thinking that challenge your own. Hear the bigger picture with npr. This is Planet Money from npr.

[Keith Romer]

Last time on Battlezone, Erica emerged victorious.

[Lara Schmiese]

I can't believe I won. Anything is possible.

[Keith Romer]

And was awarded the Econ battlezone belt.

[Lara Schmiese]

It's a lot of gold. There is a lot of gold on this.

[Keith Romer]

Today, two new Planet Money reporters enter Akon Battlezone Stadium.

[Kenny Malone]

I'm Kenny from Meadville, Pennsylvania.

[Mary Childs]

I'm Mary from Richmond, Virginia.

[Keith Romer]

Ready to do whatever it takes to get their hands on the belt.

[Mary Childs]

I love shiny things, like a raven.

[Kenny Malone]

I would wear that belt for a full month everywhere I went.

[Lara Schmiese]

I'm not giving this belt up.

[Keith Romer]

This is my welcome to a special episode of battlezone. Today, Mary and Kenny come for the champ. Let's have today's contestants join us in Econ battlezone Stadium. Erica, Mary, Kenny, the rules are simple. You will each be assigned at random your own Econ challenge question and secret ingredient. You will need to answer that question, include your secret ingredient and delight and inform our judges.

[Mary Childs]

Since I don't know what we're doing, there's no real way to prepare.

[Kenny Malone]

I'm already panicking about how I haven't spent 24 hours panicking.

[Keith Romer]

Our country is in the midst of a great debate about the federal budget and the deficit. Should we shrink the size of the federal government? Should Congress extend the tax cuts from President Donald Trump's first term? Today's Econ challenge questions all have something to do with that budget debate. Computer, please shuffle today's questions and today's mystery ingredients. Mary, you're first.

[Mary Childs]

Nice.

[Keith Romer]

What effect will extending the 2017 tax cuts have on economic growth? And why do different economic models give different answers to that question?

[Mary Childs]

Okay.

[Keith Romer]

And now, computer, what is Mary's mystery ingredient? Rhyme. To succeed, your piece must include as much rhyming as possible. Mary, how are you feeling about your challenge?

[Mary Childs]

Listen, when you said deficit, I was like, oh, these jokers are knocked out like you better. I am ready for deficit. I have been living here, and then it was about tax cuts, but I like rhyme. I don't often get to make my shows rhyme, so that's exciting.

[Keith Romer]

All right, let's move on to our next competitor. Computer, what is Kenny's economic challenge question? Kenny, your question is, what signs do economists look for to know whether our country's $36 trillion national debt has reached a level where it has begun to hurt the. The economy?

[Kenny Malone]

Okay, I can do this. Mary looks mad. Mary, did you want this one?

[Mary Childs]

Yeah, this one's a slam dunk for me. That's all right. You can have it.

[Kenny Malone]

I feel like the stakes are higher now. I really can't botch this.

[Keith Romer]

Computer, what will Kenny's challenge be? Genre. Kenny, your story must belong to one of the following three genres. Science fiction, romantic comedy, or horror.

[Kenny Malone]

Only one? Okay, okay, okay.

[Keith Romer]

All right. That leads us to our defending champion, Erica Barris. Erica, there is only one challenge remaining and only one mystery ingredient.

[Lara Schmiese]

Here we go.

[Keith Romer]

Computer, what she got. Erica, your question is about the fight over whether to cut hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicaid funding or over the next decade. So how did we get here? What are the three most important events in Medicaid history from its creation in 1965 to the present day? Okay, and Erica, your piece must contain a musical number.

[Lara Schmiese]

Woo.

[Kenny Malone]

That is great.

[Lara Schmiese]

Oh, no, see, that's not the dream, Erica. That is not the dream. Are you kidding me? I hate musicals and I am tone deaf, and I don't want any part of this.

[Keith Romer]

Contestants, remember, you have just 48 hours to become experts in the federal budget debate. Locate and interview your guests and explain everything to us in just three minutes. Whoever impresses our judges the most will. Will take home the title of Econ battlezone champion. How's that sound?

[Kenny Malone]

It sounds terrifying. And Erica, it sounds like you got some musical lessons to take. I'll be honest.

[Keith Romer]

I'm your host, Keith Romer, and this is battlezone.

[Lara Schmiese]

Can I keep talking about how I feel about this? I don't think it's fair. Why do I have to do a musical number?

[Mary Childs]

Support comes from our 2025 lead sponsor of Planet Money, Amazon Business. How can you free your team from time consuming office tasks? Amazon Business empowers leaders to not only streamline purchasing, but better support their teams. Smart business buying tools enable buyers to find and purchase items fast so they can focus on strategy and growth. It's time to free up your teams and focus on your future. Learn more about the technology insights and Support [e-mail] this message comes from Charles Schwab. When it comes to managing your wealth Schwab gives you more choices like full service, wealth management and advice when you need it. You can also invest on your own and trade on thinkorswim. Visit schwab.com to learn more Support for.

[Lara Schmiese]

This podcast and the following message come from Middlesex County, New Jersey. Whether expanding a Fortune 500 company or launching a startup, businesses that move to Middlesex county thrive in Middlesex County. You will benefit from talent, investment and infrastructure that make Middlesex county one of the most innovative business destinations in the US and your business can be there too. Go to discover middlesex.com thrive to learn all of the advantages businesses enjoy and get in touch with a dedicated business advisor.

[Keith Romer]

Welcome back to Econ battlezone. I'm joined now by our two guest judges. First up is Betsy Stevenson, who teaches economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. Betsy, what can you tell us about the challenge facing our contestants today? What's going to separate a good economic answer from a great one?

[Betsy Stevenson]

Well, these are all kind of meaty economic questions, I think in particular Kenny's question trying to understand that point at which debt becomes too much. I don't think anybody actually fully knows the answer.

[Keith Romer]

What about for Mary? What relationship are you looking for in terms of the effect individual tax cuts will have on growth?

[Betsy Stevenson]

Economic growth fundamentally and always comes down to innovation. So now we've got to understand how giving people more money somehow spurs innovation in the economy. That can be true, but sometimes it's not.

[Keith Romer]

And then finally for Erica's challenge, what's going to be the mark of success for you there?

[Betsy Stevenson]

What are the three most important events in Medicaid history? Is that important to the well being of the public? Is that important for debt? Is that important for health care? I want to see what she thinks is important and then see if she can make a case for that.

[Keith Romer]

Our second judge is one of the senior editors of this American Life and a former host of Planet Money, David Kestenbaum. David, what about the special challenges facing our contestants?

[David Kestenbaum]

I think the challenge with all of them is like there's a great cringe danger. You know also that it would distract from the explaining that you're trying to do. But also, you know, I want to see if they can do it.

[Keith Romer]

While our judges awaited the outcome, our contestants were already feeling the pressure, especially the returning champion, Erica.

[Lara Schmiese]

I'm pretty sure I have the Medicaid part of this down. The musical number part of this is really tripping me up.

[Keith Romer]

Erica did not consider herself a musical person.

[Lara Schmiese]

I took piano when I was 10 and four weeks in the teacher Told my parents they should just save their money. And that was the end of that experience.

[Keith Romer]

So she started looking for allies.

[Lara Schmiese]

I am sending an email to this country singing economist and his name is Merle Hazard, which, you know, it's kind of funny. And he's got all these great songs like how long will interest rates stay low? It's kind of a shot in the dark. I don't know if he's going to respond even, but, you know, he's just gotta try things.

[Keith Romer]

Meanwhile, Kenny was also out there trying things.

[Kenny Malone]

So here's what I'm thinking. I throw off Erica and Mary, make sure they're not going to the staff meeting. And we should not go to the noon staff meeting. Correct. And then I'll go to the staff meeting.

[Mary Childs]

Correct.

[Lara Schmiese]

No, I'm not going.

[Kenny Malone]

And use that to brainstorm some ideas.

[Keith Romer]

He took his question about warning signs that the national debt had grown too large to the planet money Zoom meeting.

[Kenny Malone]

Anyone I should talk to about when the national debt triggers a problem? The research is all over the map on this.

[Keith Romer]

But, like, you could talk to three economists and you get five opinions on this. But, like, the economy is doing great and we're, like, growing a bunch. It doesn't really matter. Like, it can go up to, like, a huge percentage of gdp or like, it could be a weight that is suppressing growth. And if it keeps growing, then it's siphoning away both government investment and private investment. Kenny also had questions about the genre he had chosen for his romantic comedy. On that front, the team was less helpful.

[Kenny Malone]

It almost immediately was, like, waylaid by a debate over whether Lost in Translation even is a ROM com or not. Wikipedia says it's a Rom com.

[Keith Romer]

Lost in Translation.

[Kenny Malone]

It's not a comm.

[Lara Schmiese]

I don't know if it's even very rom. It's just.

[Keith Romer]

It's not a ROM or a calm God.

[Kenny Malone]

And I was just like, I don't know what to do.

[Keith Romer]

Mary began by diving into the substance of her assignment. Why economic models disagree about the effect of extending tax cuts. What have you learned?

[Mary Childs]

I learned that there are differences in how you can model these things. Like, if you and I both built a model, we might differ on how elastic the world is to our changes. So, for example, I might think that labor is not that responsive to changes in taxes and that people aren't going to necessarily work a ton more, that that response isn't going to be huge. And you might be, like, really optimistic about that.

[Keith Romer]

But it wasn't long before she turned her attention to her mystery ingredient. Rhyme. At the tone, please record your message.

[Mary Childs]

Hi, this is Mary Childs calling. I was just calling with a bit of an odd request. I have a, like a reality show style challenge. I explain an economic concept in three minutes. It has to rhyme. And I was hoping to get help from run the jewels. I have a really weird and time sensitive request for juicy J. I think you are still working with two chains, possibly. I was wondering if Andre 3000 might be available today. Oh, and it has to be today, which I realize is insane. Okay, thank you so much. Bye.

[Keith Romer]

While Mary waited to hear back, Erica had already managed to land a collaborator.

[Lara Schmiese]

Um, the guy who's gonna be singing with me is a country music singing economist.

[Keith Romer]

Merle Hazard had agreed to help and to connect Erica with some of his musical friends.

[Lara Schmiese]

Well, I just booked a grammy winning banjo player and an entire Nashville band to work with me on this. So I don't know. I don't know. I'm in a pretty good place.

[Keith Romer]

Kenny, on the other hand, was feeling less in control.

[Kenny Malone]

So I think my plan, which has literally developed in the last seven minutes while I was making coffee, is to make a trailer for a rom com.

[Keith Romer]

A trailer for a rom com about the national debt.

[Kenny Malone]

I'm so mortified that what I'm gonna present is so bad and dumb. Oh, God.

[Keith Romer]

As the second day of the challenge began, Kenny tried to learn how to pull off his plan.

[Kenny Malone]

It's 4:30 in the morning. Rom com trailer school begins.

[Keith Romer]

What was that?

[Mary Childs]

What did she say? That sounded serious.

[Kenny Malone]

All right, so I've noticed something. Come with us. If your husband wouldn't mind.

[Mary Childs]

She doesn't have a husband.

[Keith Romer]

I don't have a husband.

[Kenny Malone]

Come on, let's go when everything's changing and have boom hit of like awesome pop song from exactly that year.

[Lara Schmiese]

I only came to tell you that this can't go anywhere beyond this evening.

[Keith Romer]

And you should have worn a different dress.

[Kenny Malone]

So the narrator says, lead number one's name. Lead number two's name. Reb Mark Ruffalo. Then there's a little moment from the movie.

[Keith Romer]

John Heater. Like 99.9% parched here. Could really use a cola.

[Kenny Malone]

There's the name of the movie, Just like habit. And then there's a final little moment from the movie.

[Keith Romer]

Excuse me. Pardon me. What's wrong with him?

[Kenny Malone]

So I think that is how our trailer needs to end.

[Keith Romer]

Mary's plans also started to take shape, Beginning with a call to Ari Simon at the record label Empire.

[David Kestenbaum]

The only thing I would say is like, we're up against the fact that you need it tomorrow and the fact that, like, really what you're asking for is, like, three minutes of someone, like, rapping continuously about a topic they probably don't know a ton about.

[Mary Childs]

Okay, okay.

[Keith Romer]

But Ari did connect Mary with someone who was at least willing to give it a shot.

[RexLife Raj]

I'm RexLife Raj. I'm a recording artist out of Berkeley, California. I rap, I sing, and everything in between.

[Keith Romer]

And Mary and Raj got to work trying to bridge the gap between dropping taxes and dropping bars.

[RexLife Raj]

Like, what exactly are we talking about? Just how tax cuts affect the economy. Yes.

[Mary Childs]

How tax cuts do or don't generate economic growth.

[Keith Romer]

Mary explained that different models made different predictions about the effects of extending tax cuts on growth and on how little of the lost tax revenue might be made up by that growth.

[RexLife Raj]

And so, I'm sorry, who projected that it would be 6 to 16%.

[Mary Childs]

So that would be the. The tax foundation predicted forecast 16%, and the Tax Policy center said 6%.

[Keith Romer]

In turn, Raj worked with Mary to find a rhyme to explain the importance of factors not included in those economic models.

[Mary Childs]

Endogeneity.

[RexLife Raj]

Right, Endogeneity.

[Mary Childs]

Doesn't it feel like there's a lot to work with there?

[RexLife Raj]

Yeah, definitely.

[Mary Childs]

Nice.

[RexLife Raj]

Indigenous. I'm going to put that in my phone.

[Keith Romer]

Meanwhile, Erica tried to put a country spin on how Medicaid spending had grown over the decades as Congress extended coverage to different groups of people.

[Lara Schmiese]

The thing is that the. The big thing in this is the 1972 expansion.

[Keith Romer]

She and her new band in Nashville met for a writing session and kicked around ideas about how to transmute Medicaid's increasing percentage of federal spending into country music. Gold by 80. Budget share was 2.4. But there were still bigger changes in store.

[Mary Childs]

Yeah, that's good, John.

[Keith Romer]

The material was not a natural fit.

[Mary Childs]

So the main thing was that in 91, it was 4% of the budget, but then by 2000, it was 6.6.

[Lara Schmiese]

I actually have to say the Ward's Affordable Care act somewhere in there.

[Keith Romer]

Okay, okay. But I mean, does that.

[Mary Childs]

The Affordable Congress.

[Lara Schmiese]

Affordable Care Act.

[Mary Childs]

Yeah.

[Keith Romer]

Can we try again? But by the end of the night, they had the beginnings of a song. Does all the money flow like that? Does that sound okay, Erica?

[Lara Schmiese]

It sounds great.

[Keith Romer]

Okay.

[Betsy Stevenson]

Really?

[Lara Schmiese]

Yeah. It sounds so good. It sounds like a real song.

[Keith Romer]

Yeah, this will work. And then there was Kenny. He had booked an economist he was sure could answer his question about when the size of the national debt starts to hurt the economy.

[Kenny Malone]

Hello? Hello? Can you Hear me?

[Keith Romer]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, that works. Harvard professor Ken Rogoff. Now, I have to start out by saying that the whole premise of what you're asking me about there's no answer to. Kenny hoped to use the interview as raw material for a charming romantic comedy movie trailer. What was your plan for your interview with Ken Rogoff?

[Kenny Malone]

So I was like, what do I specifically need from Kenny? Some kind of physical comedy is good. It's good to have a pet. And I have a dog that wears diapers. He could walk through the background like, that might be funny. And I came down to this list. I needed the meet cute on tape. I needed a moment of tension with him on tape. And then I needed a moment of softening reconciliation. What's your exposure to romantic comedies? My wife watches a lot. Uh huh.

[Keith Romer]

And how well did your plan work out?

[Kenny Malone]

Poorly, I would say. Poorly. Okay, sorry. I'm sorry about the. This dog is out of control. I've lost total control of my house. So I feel like we've gone through everything at this point. Absolutely, Professor. Yep. Now, I will edit it so that it sounds like Ken Rogoff and I had a delightful interaction. It's possible, though, if you ask him, he will be like, I talked to this guy at Planet Money, and he must be the dumbest reporter I've ever met in my entire life.

[Keith Romer]

As the deadline closed in, the contestants worried whether their creations would be ready in time.

[Mary Childs]

The stakes are high. I'm gonna open this file. If it works, it works. If it doesn't, well, I don't know what we'll do.

[Lara Schmiese]

Literally everything that could possibly have gone wrong technically went wrong.

[Kenny Malone]

Oh, my God, this is so bad. This is so bad. I have half an hour. I have half an hour. I'm not even close to finishing this. I'm so. I'm.

[Lara Schmiese]

Ah.

[Keith Romer]

All right, time is up. Hands up.

[Lara Schmiese]

Oh, no.

[Keith Romer]

Hands up. From your editing software. Erica Barras. How are you feeling about your piece?

[Lara Schmiese]

Um, I feel like medium. Medium rare? Is that what I'm gonna call it? I'm a medium rare right now.

[Keith Romer]

Mary, how are you feeling about your piece?

[Mary Childs]

Mm. Well, Keith, if I may pull from one of the greats, there's a certain slant of light winter afternoons that oppresses like the heft of cathedral tunes Heavenly hurt it gives us we can find no scar but internal difference where the meanings are.

[Keith Romer]

But, Mary, how do you feel about your piece?

[Mary Childs]

Oh, sorry, was that the question? Decent.

[Keith Romer]

You know, Kenny, I'm gonna go to you next, y' all.

[Kenny Malone]

It was. I haven't heard it, so I don't.

[Lara Schmiese]

That's not good.

[Kenny Malone]

I don't know.

[Mary Childs]

It's not good, man.

[Kenny Malone]

And frankly, I don't know what piece of audio I put in at the end.

[Keith Romer]

Coming up, the contestants present their stories to our judges and we all learn who will secure the Econ battlezone belt.

[H]

This message comes from Discover. Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the last 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] credit card Based on the February 2024 Nielsen report, this message comes from Capital One.

[Mary Childs]

Your business requires commercial banking solutions that prioritize your long term success with Capital One. Get a full suite of financial products and services tailored to meet your needs today and goals for tomorrow. Learn [e-mail] Commercial Member FDIC this message.

[H]

Comes from Capella University. Imagine an education that teaches you the skills you need to succeed at Capella University. You'll get a competency based education where you can take what you learn from your courses right to the workplace. They'll teach professional skills that'll help you pursue the goals you hope to achieve and you can apply those skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn [e-mail].

[Lara Schmiese]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Insperity. Providing HR services and technology from payroll benefits and HR compliance to talent development. Learn [e-mail] HR Matters.

[Keith Romer]

Welcome back to Econ Battlezone. We've assembled our three contestants and our guest judges here in Econ Battle Zone Stadium, this American Life's David Kestenbaum.

[David Kestenbaum]

Hi.

[Keith Romer]

And from the University of Michigan, Betsy Stevenson.

[Betsy Stevenson]

Hello.

[Keith Romer]

Let's get right into it. Mary, you're up first. What have you brought our judges today?

[Mary Childs]

Good morning, judges. My mission was to investigate what effect a tax cut extension would have on GDP growth and then explain why different economic models might give different answers to that question. The economist I talked to said yes, it could generate some growth largely by incentivizing lower income workers to work more hours. But everyone agreed it would not be nearly enough to make up the lost future tax revenue. For help with my challenge, which was rhyming, I called in some trusted professionals, award winning children's book author Liz Garten Scanlon and Planet Money producer extraordinaire James Sneed. And then I got help writing and performing from a rapper in Berkeley named rexliferaj. And the result of that collaboration is what you're about to hear.

[RexLife Raj]

Yo, what's up?

[Mary Childs]

It's RexLife Raj and I'm Mary Childs. Hello, and welcome to Planet Money. Raj, thanks for helping do the most.

[RexLife Raj]

Today we're going to try to figure out tax cuts. Would they boost economic growth? The political rhetoric is that it's supposed to help everybody. So does it?

[Mary Childs]

We're going to call some experts to try to make sense of it. So first let's check the data. What the studies show about if the cuts will help the economy to grow. And the good news is, from nearly every perspective, they drive a little growth, which is the objective. But that comes from lost revenue, federal cash not coming in. The government would have gotten 4 trillion.

[RexLife Raj]

4 trillion of lost revenue. When they cut taxes, 6 to 16% gets recouped on the back end. That's according to analysis, according to the studies, because people will get to keep a little bit more of their money. The way that that's supposed to work is to incentivize, to make workers feel more ambitious and more energized. Tax cuts might generate some economic growth, but a lot of people think that's short term at the most. The question is, will cuts lead to more boots on the clock or just more executive bonuses and buying back stocks? We asked Kent Smedders at Penn. He said both.

[Keith Romer]

The problem with that is that we're.

[Kenny Malone]

Actually finding, yes, it's not big economic growth. In fact, statistically, it's kind of no different than zero.

[RexLife Raj]

So even if you're looking for it, tax cuts aren't the hero because cuts.

[Mary Childs]

Help the rich more. The money, they crave it.

[Kenny Malone]

Higher income people get the money, they're.

[Keith Romer]

Going to probably save it, not spending.

[Mary Childs]

The economy, says economist Benga Agilori. So it doesn't boost growth as much as it could. That's not this story.

[RexLife Raj]

Let's talk about elasticity, something that we should mention. It's how people or businesses respond to incentives, how flexible we are with our time and our money spending. Like, well, tax cuts push us into making different decisions.

[Keith Romer]

Elasticities aren't huge, but it's a big base.

[RexLife Raj]

Eric Zwick at Chicago says that there's a little space for disagreement, for projections to diverge. Who's to say what will stay and what changes will emerge?

[Mary Childs]

Projections also differ based on how you see the world, how reactive we might be, and how changes get unfurled. The fact that things are complex, there's too much to account for. No model gets it all. There's just stuff they must ignore.

[RexLife Raj]

I have a new word that you could say with me.

[Mary Childs]

Okay, Raj, what is it?

[RexLife Raj]

Endogeneity. When feedback loops start to twist and tighten the bolts and something outside of the model starts messing with the results, they use the lower class as the engine of the economy, making you turn your life force to a commodity. Do people work more if the taxes are lower? We gotta see. Will tax cuts make the businesses invest consciously or will it make the working man work more? I just don't know if you gonna get what you hope for. They say that it'll help the working man earn more. That just sound like some rhetoric that we heard before. Tax cuts for economic growth feel like a turf war. I just don't know if you gonna get what you hope for.

[Mary Childs]

Thanks so much, Raj. With rhymes like diamonds glistening. This is npr. Thanks for listening.

[Kenny Malone]

Oh, my gosh.

[RexLife Raj]

Woo.

[Lara Schmiese]

That was out of this world. That was amazing.

[Mary Childs]

Thank you.

[Keith Romer]

David Kestenbaum, what'd you think?

[David Kestenbaum]

Overall, really nice job. Like I thought, oh, rhyming, that's probably one of the easier ones. But then when you hear it, like, it twists, how you have to write every single sentence, it's just really, really challenging. I definitely admired the ingenuity and getting Raj to do that, but I was genuinely interested in unpacking the question in some detail. And maybe that's not possible when you're also asked to rhyme, but I do think as a reporter, you have to figure out how to balance those things and not try and cover too much ground.

[Keith Romer]

Thank you. David and Betsy, how did you feel about the economics of the piece?

[Betsy Stevenson]

You know, I love it. I actually think it's just so clever. I mean, I did not see you drop an endogeneity in there and like some of these phrases like life force to a commodity, just beautiful and really good economics. The main idea is whose behavior is going to be changed? Is it going to be, you know, lower income people or higher income people? And by changing their behavior, is it really getting them to work harder or is it just making them richer?

[Keith Romer]

Thank you, judges. Next, we turn our attention to our second challenger, Kenny. Kenny, tell us a little bit about what you're presenting today.

[Kenny Malone]

Well, for my assignment, I have made a rom com movie trailer featuring the indicators Waylon Wong, narrated by NPR chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley. And in this, hopefully you will hear how one economic sign in particular may give US the clearest warning that the national debt is beginning to hurt the US Economy. I have heard this piece zero times, judges. I didn't have time to listen back. I think all of the parts are in their places, but I don't know for sure.

[Keith Romer]

Well Kenny, let's find out. Go ahead and press play when you're ready, Kenny.

[Kenny Malone]

Happy National Cognac day, Kenny. It's 7:00am Widely believed to have been established by the cognac industry in the United States as a way to spawn.

[Mary Childs]

Some changes economics of made up holidays ago.

[Kenny Malone]

I know.

[Keith Romer]

Kenny is a down on his luck. Podcaster.

[Kenny Malone]

Sheesh.

[Mary Childs]

Is it National Walk with Crutches Day?

[Kenny Malone]

I. I had hip surgery from a running injury.

[Mary Childs]

I knew you'd been running away from serious stories, Kenny, but this is ridiculous.

[Keith Romer]

Ken F. Is a famous Ivy League economist, Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist is out with a new book today. Ken Wilmoff, good to have you on. Good to see you. Two cans. One world apart until one day. Welcome to Econ Battlezone 1 Assignment, Kenny, your topic is national debt would change everything.

[Kenny Malone]

Dear Professor Rogoff, interview request. Urgent interview request.

[Mary Childs]

Ken Rogoff said yes.

[Kenny Malone]

This is my chance to do something serious.

[Mary Childs]

Please don't turn this into National National Debt Day.

[Kenny Malone]

Oh, that's not bad at all.

[Mary Childs]

Kenny, back away from the calendar.

[Keith Romer]

What happens?

[Kenny Malone]

Look at my crutches in place here. Oh, okay.

[Keith Romer]

That's when Kens collide.

[Kenny Malone]

We have a shared experience here. You're a Kenneth. My name is also Kenneth. Oh, did you get like I used to get teased. Ken Barbie, Kenny G. No, no. Because it wasn't so common in my era. Anyway, let's move on to but yeah.

[Keith Romer]

Can Toucans teach something to all of us? Specifically teach us what indicators do economists look to for whether the national debt is harming the economy?

[Kenny Malone]

The big thing would be interest rates start going up.

[Keith Romer]

If the markets are already pressuring you.

[Kenny Malone]

Because they're nervous about how much you're.

[Keith Romer]

Borrowing and they see you have a very cavalier attitude towards it, they'll say.

[Kenny Malone]

Fine, I'll keep lending to you. But Instead of just 1%, how about 1 1/2% more that you're gonna have to pay? I see. So that's when you get stuck, you.

[Keith Romer]

Know, in one of these cycles from Peabody award winning Planet Money.

[Kenny Malone]

I mean, he says you only need to look at interest rates.

[Keith Romer]

Comes a story.

[Mary Childs]

Interest rates affect everything, Kenny.

[Keith Romer]

About the interest we owe on our debts.

[Kenny Malone]

When interest rates go up, they've gone up on every on home mortgages. On car loans, on student loans. And the national debt plays a large role in that.

[Keith Romer]

And the debts we owe to the people who interest us.

[Mary Childs]

You can't spell Kenny without Ken.

[Keith Romer]

Kenny Malone, Ken Rogoff and the Indicators. Waylon Wong, coming this summer in nationally indebted to you.

[Lara Schmiese]

How bad could it be? It's not like your dog walked in.

[Mary Childs]

And knocked your crutches on your head once.

[Kenny Malone]

My dog? Hey, Zadie.

[H]

Zadie.

[Kenny Malone]

All right. And the crutches have fallen.

[Lara Schmiese]

That was beautiful. That was unbelievable.

[Mary Childs]

The debts we owe to those who interest us.

[Lara Schmiese]

I can't.

[Keith Romer]

Let's. Let's go ahead and turn to our judges. David Kestenbaum, what'd you make of that?

[David Kestenbaum]

I found that very enjoyable, the presentation of it. I enjoyed the classic Planet Money of trying something funny with the important smart person Ken Rogoff, who is not there for it. So I thought, like, presentationally it was excellent. I thought content wise. I realized I had lots of questions and I really wanted to dig into it. And I just felt like I was just getting started.

[Kenny Malone]

So, yeah, that's all in the movie, the full movie.

[David Kestenbaum]

Anyway, given the complications of the assignment. Very nicely done.

[Keith Romer]

And Betsy, what did you make of the economics in the piece?

[Betsy Stevenson]

Well, I just want to say that was very, very funny and enjoyable piece. Probably the most important concept is what you covered, the idea that the interest rate can go up. There are, though, a lot of other aspects we care a lot about. What's the return on the investment we're making? So are we borrowing for an investment or are we borrowing for consumption? If we're investing in critical minerals so that our auto industry and our computer industry and our AI industry can grow, then basically economic growth is going to stay ahead of the debt. And it was that idea that was missing in the piece. If your goal was to answer the question of when should we become concerned about the size of the debt, what's the tipping point? The tipping point is when the debt is growing faster than the economy.

[Kenny Malone]

Thank you. Thank you, judges.

[Keith Romer]

All right, we've got one contestant left. Our returning champion, Erica Barris. Erica, what'd you bring us today? Okay.

[Lara Schmiese]

My assignment was to select the three most important moments in Medicaid funding. From its creation in 1965 to today. I picked several inflection points. When the program expanded, who could be covered? So in 1966, just 2% of the population was covered by Medicaid. Today, it's 21%. To explain how that happened, I wrote lyrics for a song, and then I had to find Someone to make that song a reality. I found this country singer, economist, his name's Merle Hazzard. He helped me put together a whole band called EB and the Entitlement. The band is Matt, Gary, Tristan, my new good friend Alison Brown, who is a Grammy Award winning banjo player. And they helped me write the music, they helped me tweak some of the lyrics and put this whole thing together. And then I sang the song even though I cannot sing. And it is called the Medicaid song. And here it is.

[Keith Romer]

Here's a little number about all the numbers relating to Medicaid.

[Lara Schmiese]

It all started in 1965 when the government said health insurance, you needed to stay alive. So Congress, they passed a bill, some money from the feds, but managed by the states, low income Americans got preventative care on their plates. It was an entitlement program, if you will. By 1970, Medicaid was 1.4% of the budget through a funding formula that covered people from LA to Nantucket. And the first big change, coverage for more people with disabilities in 72. By 1980, 1.4 was 2.4. But there were still bigger changes in store through the decade. The economy slowed, but health care grew.

[Keith Romer]

Oh, how did we get here? How did Medicaid grow? What happened when and where does the money flow?

[Lara Schmiese]

By the 90s, Medicaid had grown in all kinds of ways. Long term care and women and kids no longer had to pay. In 91, Medicaid spending was 4% of the budget. But with the new change, more services were added to the bucket. In 96, welfare reform made it so cash assistance wasn't tied to Medicaid eligibility. What that did was expand the pool of people and gave some folks more flexibility. Then CHIP expanded Medicaid for kids and by the year 2000, federal spending was 6.6.

[Keith Romer]

Oh, how did we get here? How did Medicaid grow? What happened when and where does the money flow? Take it, Alison.

[Lara Schmiese]

And now we arrive at our third big change. It was back in 2010 when Congress enacted the ACA, the Affordable Care act expanded Medicaid. The federal government offered a 90% match, but just for states. That expanded coverage naturally and set up one more way in which states get paid. Now, 9% of the budget goes to Medicaid. Each year, nearly $900 billion. If you want to be clear, a fifth of us use Medicaid. According to Reportage. Under the current proposal, hundreds of billions of dollars would be cut to maybe fill a budgetary gap. But it would leave 8 million people without health care coverage.

[Keith Romer]

How did we get here?

[Lara Schmiese]

How did Medicaid grow?

[Keith Romer]

What happened when and where, oh where.

[Lara Schmiese]

Oh where, oh where does the money flow? Okay.

[Mary Childs]

Incredible.

[Kenny Malone]

Oh, Erica, fantastic.

[Mary Childs]

Grammy award winning, future Grammy award. Winning.

[Keith Romer]

David, let's start with you. What'd you make of it?

[David Kestenbaum]

It was very enjoyable to listen to. Nicely done. There's just something nice to hear about hearing the human voice. You know what I mean? You took advantage of the medium nicely and I enjoyed your Bob Dylan ish delivery.

[Kenny Malone]

Yes.

[Keith Romer]

And Betsy, let's turn to you. What did you make of the economics of this piece?

[Betsy Stevenson]

Erica, you were asked what was important and what you said was how did it grow? And that's your refrain in the song. I love it. And I think you did identify some of the big policy changes that led to the expansion of Medicaid. I mean, the ACA is the biggest expansion of Medicaid and I think a lot of people don't realize that the chip expanding Medicaid to children was also a really important part of that. So I thought you identified some of the real key aspects of how it grew. And I tell you, I love the song. I'm really glad that you jumped right into it and you smashed it with the singing.

[Lara Schmiese]

Thank you, judges.

[Kenny Malone]

Great job.

[Keith Romer]

So who will our judges choose to be the next battlezone champion? Will it be Mary and her tax cut rap, Kenny's rom com take on the national debt, or Erica's Medicaid country song? Mary, Kenny, Erica, you were each tasked with teaching us about one piece of the debate about the federal budget and delighting us in the process. And all three of you should hold your heads high. I will say this is the closest any Econ Battle zone vote has ever been. But there is only one econ battlezone belt, so there can be only one winner. David, Betsy, who's taken home the belt.

[David Kestenbaum]

Can I just say how hard it was before I say if we were.

[Betsy Stevenson]

A jury, we'd be there for days.

[David Kestenbaum]

They're all so impressive. They're all just so impressive. Mary, yours was really great and covered so much ground in so much depth in such a clever way. And then Erica, like, so lovely to hear you sing and go through the history of it. But Kenny, I thought, you know, of all of them, like, you narrowed the scope in a way that was useful. You know, you picked one simple thing you were to convey and you did that in a package that was enjoyable, which I think is in the great, you know, traditions of planet Money. Kenny, the belt is yours.

[Keith Romer]

What?

[Kenny Malone]

Oh my I'm genuinely stunned. Thank you so much. This is one of the greatest achievements of my professional life. To win this in front of Betsy, in front of whom I was worried about falling on my face intellectually, which I feel like I did a little bit still nonetheless. But that's okay. I feel like this justifies everything. Thank you so much.

[Keith Romer]

Kenny Malone, Congratulations. You are the Econ battlezone champion and this is your belt.

[Kenny Malone]

It's so big. It's so shiny. It's so big and shiny. I don't have any words.

[Keith Romer]

Will Kenny get to hold on to his big shiny Econ battlezone belt, or will a new contender walk away victorious? Find out on the next Econ Battlezone. Got a topic? For the next Econ Battlezone? You can email us planetmoneypr.org and if you want to see Kenny with his Econ Battlezone belt, keep an eye on our Instagram Instagram feed. PlanetMoney the Great James Sneed produced this episode of Planet Money. The show was edited by Jess Jiang, engineered by Sina Lofredo with an assist from Jimmy Keeley, and fact checked by Cierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. Special thanks today to Robin Rudewitz and Sarah Rosenbaum and to Erica's backing band, the Entitlements. John Shane, also known as Merle Hazard, Alison Brown, Matt Coles, Gary west and Tristan Scroggins. I'm Keith Romer. This is npr. Thanks for listening.

[H]

This message comes from avid reader Press Legendary investor Ray Dalio's new book, How Countries Go the Big Cycle, explains the mechanics behind big debt crises. Larry Summers says Dalio's brilliant, iconoclastic approach is an invaluable resource, and Hank Paulson says it provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity. Read it to understand one of the greatest economic issues of our time. Available now. Wherever books are sold, this message comes from Jerry. Many people are overpaying on car insurance. Why? Switching providers can be a pain. Jerry helps make the process painless. Jerry is the only app that compares rates from over 50 insurers in minutes and helps you switch fast with no spam calls or hidden fees. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over $1,300 a year. Before you renew your car insurance policy, download the Jerry app or head to Jerry ainpr.