Planet Money – NPR

Episode: The Supreme Court struck down a bunch of Trump's tariffs. Now what?
Date: February 21, 2026

Brief Overview

This episode tackles the Supreme Court’s landmark decision overturning a broad set of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The hosts dig into what the ruling means for small businesses like Kara Dyer’s, the complexity of pursuing refunds, new markets springing up for speculative refund claims, and the broader implications for tariff policy moving forward. The episode features insights from trade experts, a customs lawyer, and business owners directly impacted by the volatile trade environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Supreme Court’s Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs

• [00:22–03:17] The Supreme Court declared Trump’s sweeping tariffs (imposed via IEEPA, a law never before used this way) illegal.
• The ruling affects tariffs imposed on a vast array of products from nearly every country, with businesses hopeful they might recover billions already paid.
• Kara Dyer, a small business owner, expresses relief and hope for clarity and possible refunds but also uncertainty about what comes next.
• Notable Quote:
  “Now they've ruled that it's illegal. Now we need to take some action and get those refunds back into the hands of businesses.” – Kara Dyer [01:44]

2. How Did We Get Here? The Mechanics of the Law

• [04:18–06:53] Legal expert Kathleen Claussen explains that IEEPA wasn’t crafted for tariffs:
  • The law’s language says the President may ‘regulate importation’ but doesn’t specify authority to impose tariffs.
  • The Court held “those words cannot bear such weight,” rejecting the administration’s broad interpretation.
• Notable Quote:
  “The Chief Justice says those words cannot bear such weight. Those words cannot bear such weight. That's the key phrase.” – Kathleen Claussen [06:07]

3. Will Anyone Get Their Money Back?

• [06:53–12:19] Host Jeff Guo asks directly if refunds are forthcoming.
  • Prof. Claussen: There’s no clear path—Supreme Court stayed silent on refunds.
  • Customs lawyer Maureen Thorson identifies three possible paths:
    • Option 1: File a post summary correction with U.S. Customs (limited time window – 300 days after import).
      • “You can do an oopsie, take backsies.” – Kara Dyer [09:29]
    • Option 2: File a lawsuit against the U.S. Government.
    • Option 3: Wait for an official process from the administration (speculative and slow).
  • For most consumers, refunds are unlikely unless they paid customs duties directly (not just higher prices due to tariffs).
• Notable Quote:
  “You got a long, long road to hoe there, my friend, if that's what you're going for.” – Kathleen Claussen [07:01]

4. The Rise of a “Tariff Refund Market”

• [12:19–17:19] A niche financial market emerges for buying and selling speculative tariff refund rights.
  • Many companies, stuck with uncertainty, sold their possible future refunds at a discount to hedge funds via brokers like Wes Harrell (Seaport Global).
  • Deals started at about 20% payout (hedge funds gamble on winning full refunds); post-Supreme Court, sellers fetch up to 40%.
  • Apparel and footwear importers especially active.
  • “No modern parallel for the magnitude of this unwind.” – Wes Harrell [16:58]
• Notable Quote:
  “There are hedge funds, Wes's clients, that … are looking for ways to make bets on litigation or anything weird or risky … At what price would you be interested in buying it?” – Mary Childs [14:07]

5. Not All Trump Tariffs Are Gone – The Limit of the Ruling and New Moves

• [18:40–22:28] The Supreme Court decision only nixes tariffs imposed using IEEPA—not those set using other laws.
  • Section 301, 232, and similar laws still allow targeted tariffs (like many on China). The ‘three-digit’ statutes, as trade insiders say, still stand.
  • Trump pivots and announces a new 10% across-the-board tariff under Section 122—a never-before-used law that could allow temporary tariffs (for balance-of-payments reasons, up to 150 days with possible Congressional extension).
  • Legal experts anticipate new lawsuits around this strategy as courts and Congress test the boundaries.
• Notable Quote:
  “That's the big news of the day … welcome to Section 122. It allows the President to impose a tariff of up to 15% for a limited period of time to address a balance of payments deficit.” – Kathleen Claussen [20:54]

6. The Real-World Impact on Small Businesses & Consumers

• [22:28–26:36] Kara Dyer describes how the unpredictability and cost of tariffs forced her to shrink orders, change suppliers, and rethink her business strategy.
  • She resisted offers from Chinese suppliers to underreport shipments (“tempting, but super risky”).
  • Dyer spent the year diversifying products (like a new Red Riding Hood set), only placing a big container order after seeing signs tariffs might end—saving around $15,000 due to the Supreme Court’s ruling.
  • She’s cautiously hopeful but wary as new tariffs loom: “I don’t know if it’s the end of tariffs or not … today I want to feel hopeful about it.”
  • For Dyer, the $20,000 she paid in tariffs is significant and worth pursuing a refund, but she worries about the cost and complexity of hiring a lawyer.
• Notable Quote:
  “I feel angry about that, especially when it really felt like just while it was going on, you didn't see any reason for it. Were we getting a better deal from China, you know, because we did this? No.” – Kara Dyer [26:02]

Memorable Quotes by Segment

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |:-----------:|:------------------:|:------| | [01:44] | Kara Dyer | "Now they've ruled that it's illegal. Now we need to take some action and get those refunds back into the hands of businesses." | | [06:07] | Kathleen Claussen | “The Chief Justice says those words cannot bear such weight. Those words cannot bear such weight. That's the key phrase.” | | [07:01] | Kathleen Claussen | "You got a long, long road to hoe there, my friend, if that's what you're going for.” | | [09:29] | Kara Dyer | "An oopsie take backsies. Yes." | | [14:07] | Mary Childs | "There are hedge funds, Wes's clients, that … are looking for ways to make bets on litigation or anything weird or risky … At what price would you be interested in buying it?" | | [16:58] | Wes Harrell | "There really is no modern parallel for the magnitude of this unwind." | | [20:54] | Kathleen Claussen | "That's the big news of the day … welcome to Section 122. It allows the President to impose a tariff of up to 15% for a limited period of time to address a balance of payments deficit." | | [26:02] | Kara Dyer | "I feel angry about that, especially when it really felt like just while it was going on, you didn't see any reason for it. Were we getting a better deal from China, you know, because we did this? No." |

Important Timestamps

• [00:22–03:17] Introduction; Why the ruling matters for businesses
• [04:18–06:53] Legal reasoning behind the Supreme Court’s decision
• [06:53–12:19] Navigating refund options post-ruling
• [12:19–17:19] The speculative market for tariff rebate claims
• [18:40–22:28] Which tariffs are still standing, Trump’s new move with Section 122
• [22:28–26:36] How tariffs upended small business; real-world anecdotes

Tone & Style Notes

The episode maintains Planet Money’s trademark mix of playful curiosity, economic clarity, and journalistic rigor. The hosts are conversational, making complex trade law and financial speculation not just understandable, but genuinely interesting. Guests (especially trade and customs lawyers) embrace the “nerd out” aspect, but explanations remain accessible and lively.

Final Takeaway

The Supreme Court’s takedown of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs is a huge legal and economic reset, with potential refunds on the line—but distribution will be complicated and slow. Meanwhile, both hedge funds and hopeful small business owners are scrambling for a piece of the action, and the trade war roller coaster is far from over, with new legal and political maneuvers already in motion.