Are Trump Voters Feeling Buyer's Remorse? (With Sarah Longwell)

Summary

Pod Save America: Are Trump Voters Feeling Buyer's Remorse? (with Sarah Longwell)

Date: April 26, 2026
Host: Tommy Vietor
Guest: Sarah Longwell (Publisher, The Bulwark)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Tommy Vietor sits down with Sarah Longwell—a veteran political strategist, Bulwark publisher, and focus group guru—to discuss what’s really on Trump voters’ minds six months out from the midterms. The conversation dives deep into the growing sense of buyer’s remorse among segments of the Trump coalition, the messaging that resonates (or doesn’t) in 2026, how coalitions are fracturing, and what both parties are getting right and wrong. With insights drawn from thousands of hours of voter focus groups, Longwell brings a granular, on-the-ground perspective that cuts through the usual polling noise.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The National Mood: “Vibes” Are Bad for Everyone

• Across the board pessimism: Every focus group begins with “How do you think things are going in the country?” and the response is universally negative—even among Trump’s remaining supporters.
  • “It is bad. Nobody thinks things are good, including some of the people who still support Trump. They don't think things are going well.” —Sarah Longwell (04:10)
• Cost of living dominates: High prices and economic stress are the top issues. Even Trump loyalists are losing faith that things will improve.
• Country feels like a ‘powder keg’: Beyond economics, participants across the spectrum feel the nation is too divided, fearing possible civil conflict.

2. Focus Group Insights: Erosion in Trump’s Base

• Optimism eroding: Where once strong Trump supporters insisted he would fix things, now “the sliding off of the optimism” is clear as voters see conditions worsening.
  • “Every week you just see the sliding off of the optimism from Trump voters that say, I think things are gonna get better. Like, they just see things getting worse.” —Longwell (05:04)
• “Below the Bush line”: A term Sarah coined for the core hardcore Trump backers, referencing the dwindling “ride or die” contingent.

3. Corruption Cuts Through: Messaging That Resonates

• Corruption as an economic issue: Framing Trump’s corruption as a story of “he gets rich while you get poor” hits home.
  • “Corruption...can be an economic issue. Right. It's about...he's getting rich while you're getting poorer. Everything has to have the contrast.” —Longwell (09:45)
• Jon Ossoff’s approach admired: Calm, clear, contrast-driven storytelling about Trumpworld’s self-dealing resonates.
  • “I am minorly developing an obsession with Jon Ossoff entirely based on tight shirts and good messages...” —Longwell, joking (10:39)

4. Right-Wing Infighting & Fracturing Coalitions

• Tucker Carlson’s remorse: Recent public apologies from figures like Tucker Carlson for supporting Trump (13:02-14:00) become ammo for Democrats to highlight Republican fractures.
  • “Use the shit out of all of it, right? Like amplify the fractures in their coalition...You want them to fall apart.” —Longwell (14:32)
• “No gatekeeping” on coalitions: While Democrats debate “welcoming” controversial figures into their coalition, the focus should remain on amplifying GOP divisions for political advantage.

5. Messaging Pitfalls: Avoiding False “Unity”

• On alliances with figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene: There’s skepticism about sincerity, but an acknowledgment that politics creates strange issue-based alliances.
  • “Politics is always like that, right? Politics finds strange bedfellows...you want your coalition to be as big as possible.” —Longwell (24:27-26:24)
• Democrats’ sluggishness: Voters want more aggressive—not necessarily more ideological—opposition to Trump (“be more aggressive, not more moderate or progressive,” 51:16).

6. Iran War & Trump’s Broken Promises

• Key voter resentment: The Iran war is damaging Trump with his base due to broken promises, higher costs at home, and a sense of betrayal.
  • “You said no more of this stuff...We hired you to do one thing, man, maybe two. Maybe we wanted you to also secure the border, but like it was about prices and you're not doing it.” —Longwell (29:35)
• Deepening divides: Anti-war MAGA types (e.g. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson) now openly criticize Trump for neocon foreign policy pivot.

7. The Epstein Files/Fetish & Rise of Conspiratorial Thinking

• Epstein as a symbol: The failure to release Epstein files feels to many Trump voters like a broken promise on “transparency.”
  • “The main thing again is it goes to...the grammar of hidden knowledge...Trump was gonna disrupt all that. When you don't get the Epstein files...it disrupts the central promise.” —Longwell (31:33)
• Conspiracies go mainstream: Voters now openly own conspiracy thinking as an identity (“I'm a big conspiracy theorist”), revealing a new form of politics-as-entertainment.
  • “You used to hear people start their sentences with, ‘I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but’...Now they're like, ‘I'm a big conspiracy theorist.’” —Longwell (33:08)

8. The Tech Oligarchs: An Undervalued Political Villain

• AI & Big Tech as campaign fodder: Anger at AI data centers (over water/energy usage) is rising, but Longwell urges Dems to sharpen the focus on tech oligarchs (Musk, Thiel, Zuckerberg) as responsible for division and misinformation.
  • “Can you guys just please really focus on the big tech oligarchs?...they are algorithmically, for their own profit...making us want to hate each other.” —Longwell (41:47)

9. MAHA, Vaccines, and the Limits of the Anti-Institutional Left

• Initial resonance, now disappointment: Some voters were initially “MAHA-curious” (anti-vax/anti-chemical), but frustration set in as “nothing really got done.”
• Scientific gutting’s delayed pain: Voters keenly feel economic pain (war, tariffs) but the consequences of Trump’s anti-science approach may only show up a decade later.

10. Congressional Approval and Voter Disillusionment

• Record lows: Approval at 10%—even lower among Dems—reflects mass anger at inaction (50:39-51:16).
• Anger at leadership: Democratic voters want their party to be “more aggressive” and feel let down by geriatric leadership (“down with the gerontocracy”).

11. 2028 GOP & Dem Speculation: “Strange New Respect”

• Rubio vs. Vance: Rubio emerges in focus groups as the “only non-clown” in Trump’s orbit, though many voters are just meeting him for the first time (57:50-60:49).
• J.D. Vance similarities to DeSantis: Voters’ interest wanes the more they see of him.
• Tucker’s presidential ambitions: Remains a possible wild card, with instant base appeal but uncertain willingness to run.
• Dem bench: Longwell’s favorites include Jon Ossoff (“doing the thing that I'm desperate for Democrats to do”), Pete Buttigieg (“inspires love in people”), and (under certain conditions) Josh Shapiro.
  • “The Democrat who is gonna win...manages to...have a very clear sense of vision, hope, future, how we come back together as a country. I do think people are hungry for that. I think he [Ossoff] has it.” —Longwell (65:24)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Corruption Framing:
  “Trump’s getting richer, you're getting poorer. That's the contrast.” —Sarah Longwell (11:42)
• On “Buyer’s Remorse”:
  “Voters know what caused it. Voters know that tariffs caused the price increases. And they know that the war in Iran is causing gas price increases...You said no more of this stuff.” —Sarah Longwell (29:35)
• On Conspiracy Theories:
  “Now they're like, I'm a big conspiracy theorist. And let me tell you what I think about Erica Kirk's like, the body's buried in her basement.” —Sarah Longwell (33:08)
• On Democratic Messaging:
  “All the voters really want is for it (the Democratic Party) to be more aggressive.” —Sarah Longwell (51:16)
• On Big Tech:
  “They are the poisoners in many cases, or they're the platforms that deliver the poison and try and keep you there...Elon Musk should be an enemy that we name.” —Sarah Longwell (41:47)
• On 2028:
  “Rubio is maybe the first candidate I've seen where like a meme seems to be springing to life...there is one person in this administration who's not a total clown.” —Sarah Longwell (57:50)
• On what Dems should look for in a candidate:
  “...the Democrat who is gonna win...does have a very clear sense of vision, hope future, how we come back together as a country. I do think people are hungry for that.” —Sarah Longwell (65:24)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Sarah on the Bad “Vibes”: 04:10
• Corruption Messaging & Ossoff Praise: 09:41–11:42
• Tucker Carlson Clip & GOP Disunity: 13:02–14:32
• MAHA/Anti-Vax/Wellness Crowd: 47:17–49:10
• Epstein Files as Trust Issue: 31:33
• Tech Oligarchs as Political Enemy: 41:47–44:18
• Congressional Approval & Dem Discontent: 50:39–52:52
• 2028 Republican Bench (Rubio vs. Vance): 57:28–60:49
• Democratic Bench Speculation (Ossoff, Buttigieg, Shapiro): 61:54–66:24

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Tone & Language

The tone of the episode is candid, sharp, and a blend of humor and hard-nosed analysis—Sarah Longwell and Tommy Vietor lean into “real talk” about modern politics. They cut through platitudes and get honest about the motivations and anxieties of voters from all stripes, poking fun at themselves and the political actors involved while offering serious advice for the left.

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking a nuanced, on-the-ground read of the electorate in 2026. Sarah Longwell’s focus group lens reveals deep disillusionment—most acutely among Trump’s own base—along with growing public cynicism, the new centrality of “vibe checks,” and why clear, contrast-driven messaging around corruption and big tech could prove crucial for Democrats. The landscape is shifting, the old coalitions are breaking up, and both parties face rising expectations (and scrutiny) from their own voters.

Transcript

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[Sarah Longwell]

I'm Kiana, and I leveled up my business with Shopify. Once I figured out that Shopify was a thing, I never turned back. I can create a site with my eyes closed. Shopify thinks ahead of us, you know, and it thinks about the more than anything. Every day I'm thinking about some other new business. But Shopify is doing it to me because it's so easy to use. It's like, I can't stop. I'm addicted. Start your free [e-mail].

[Tommy Vietor]

Welcome to Pot Save America. My guest today is an old friend of mine. She actually stole my car, literally 25 years ago. She gave it back. It's fine without cassing it, without casting it. Long story. But today, Sarah Longwell has left a life of crime behind her to become the publisher of the Bulwark. You can find her on excellent podcasts like the Next Level, the Focus Group. Sarah, it's great to see you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Thanks, man. It's great to see you. You are in my office, just so people know.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's very nice. It's a very professional, very nice office here in D.C. and I'm so grateful to be here because I wanted to take stock of this political moment. We're like six months out from the midterms. We're all letting ourselves get excited. But you do more focus groups with voters than anyone I know. Like several a week.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Tommy Vietor]

And I want to ask you about those conversations because we're all sickos who, you know, hoover up the latest polls. But I think you can really learn interesting insights by listening to voters. What a crazy concept.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's almost like they're the people who comprise this democracy of ours.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's almost like they make the decisions. And by the way, if listeners are as obsessed with this stuff as we are and they wanna learn more, you should right now, pause the podcast and pre order Sarah's book, How to Eat an Elephant. One voter at a time. You'll learn about Sarah's life, her time in politics, the insight she's gleaned from literally thousands of hours of focus group conversations with voters. And also, if you pre order it now, what that means is when the New York Times Bestseller list comes out, she will be on it and Don Jr's triggered two or whatever Bullshit book is getting bulk ordered by the rnc will get bounced.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[Tommy Vietor]

So I think this is important.

[Sarah Longwell]

It is important to me that no super PAC is buying this book to get it on the list that it is made up of real people in large part because I want people to hear. And sometimes people are like, oh my God, do I have to listen to voters? And I'm like, yes, yes.

[Tommy Vietor]

Was you doing a JVL impression right there?

[Sarah Longwell]

I was doing a JVL impression, yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Sarah in the Bulwark team, they're independent, pro democracy media. So are we at Crooked Media. Check out everything the Bulwark is doing. Go to Substack. They have amazing podcasts. They do written content. You should be a subscriber. I've been a subscriber. Subscriber for a long time, so.

[Sarah Longwell]

Good. Nice of you.

[Tommy Vietor]

I mean, it's great stuff. And by the way, please follow Podcast America here on YouTube and consider becoming a subscriber to what we're doing here. Go to crooked.com friends because as Sarah knows, subscribing is like literally the best thing you can do for independent media. Advertising is great, but it is not enough. But if you subscribe, you get ad free episodes. You get bonus episodes. POD Save America deep dives into polling with Dan Pfeiffer. So it's a good deal. Crooked.com friends okay, so Sarah, let's start with what you're hearing about Donald Trump himself on the focus group POD you guys recently talked about. It was like Catholic Trump in Harris voters. You talked about. It was Trump voters who were angry at him. There was an interesting Iran war podcast. Like, there's tons of great episodes people should check out. But like, what are the big themes and problems and concerns that kind of keep arising?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, okay, so the easy one is, so we asked the same question at the beginning of every group. How do you think things are going in the country? There is only one answer to that question that we are hearing right now.

[Tommy Vietor]

Great. Two thumbs up.

[Sarah Longwell]

It is bad. Nobody thinks things are good, including some of the people who still support Trump. They don't think things are going well. People who are still riding with Trump just tend to have hope that maybe they will start going well at some point. Because you gotta trust the plan, Tommy. You trust the plan, we might get there. But the big thing is just costs, right? Everybody talks about, how do you think things are going in country. People say bad gas prices are high. We're suddenly in a war with Iran. I wanted Trump to deport criminals but he's doing all this other stuff and it's this pervasive feeling. In fact, we just did a focus group and I really liked this group. It was people who are still approvers of Trump, people who are still rocking with him. That 32%. I've got my Bush line. Right. But people who are. Call it below the Bush line. People who are like, I'm still in it with Trump. Surprised I managed to get that by you without you giggling.

[Tommy Vietor]

I did smile.

[Sarah Longwell]

You can't. Do you know that? I coined that phrase entirely innocently and only until I said it to Tim Miller.

[Tommy Vietor]

And the reason I'm laughing is cuz I was texting with Tim about this today and I asked him for oppo about you and he responded the Bush line.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, well, he. They bastardize things that I take purely.

[Tommy Vietor]

You're so innocent when compared to him.

[Sarah Longwell]

So. But the people who are still riding with Trump, who think things are going great, even they think that the state of the country, like the way that we relate to each other is awful. Like, they feel like the country's a powder keg. They feel like we're too divided, they're scared about civil war. And so there's this like deep pervading sense or pervasive sense of unease. But the prices are the things you hear, because when prices are high, people's anxiety is high. And they've been high kind of now for a long time. And so people are starting to crack. And I gotta tell you, a year ago, what we would hear from these voters is, okay, like, Trump is gonna fix it, and like, Rome wasn't built in a day, but I think he's gonna get there. And like every week you just see the sort of, the sliding off of the optimism from Trump voters that say, I think things are gonna get better. Like, they just see things getting worse.

[Tommy Vietor]

It jives with what I've heard from others. Like folks probably heard of Swing Left, they're a great grassroots organization. They're doing this big canvassing project called Ground Truth where they don't do like a walk list. It's not like the Democratic Party saying, like, hey, knock on these Democratic doors. They're knocking on every door and they're trying to have longer conversations. And, you know, issues rise and fall, right? Like the Iran war happens and all of a sudden that spikes in what they're hearing. But the number one issue, like, lingering, pervasive issue, is about the integrity of the political system itself. It's about trust. And that ranges from corruption. It's people feeling like politicians lie and they're self dealing. It's that the system is corrupted or captured by corporate interests. And it's just, you know, it's interesting that they're hearing that you're hearing the same thing. Like that is like the mood music.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And I think, like, to the extent that we now take, our signals are also bifurcated and everywhere, but they all come together in this thing that we now call vibes. And one of the things I talk about in the book is the rise of the vibes voter. And the vibes are bad and Trump's vibes are bad. And it's funny the way you just said it, which is around corruption and things. A lot of the things about doing the focus groups is you get a lot of specifics into that. So what are people angry about? Well, they're angry that Trump lied and said we weren't gonna get into these stupid wars and now we're at war with Iran. They're upset about Epstein. Epstein comes up a lot. I think a lot of people thought like, this isn't a real story. This isn't actually gonna matter. But for a lot of the voters, Epstein isn't just about Epstein. It's about the idea that Trump was supposed to be somebody who was going to be transparent. Right. And he was gonna put people in his cabinet. There's a secret cabal running everything. But we're gonna tell you the truth, we are on your side. And there's a sense of betrayal around that, which is why I always think about the people who are still part of the people who approve of Trump. For them, what they have is like they're keeping the faith in Trump that it's gonna come, but they're clear that it hasn't come yet, and we're not getting it right now.

[Tommy Vietor]

Interesting. So we both are in the media world now, but, like, at heart, we're political hacks who especially focus on messaging and how to go after Trump. The messaging that resonates with me, my bias, my prior is around corruption, because I think the corruption bucket gives you the why, right? It's like it explains why Trump is pushing bad tax policies because his donors want them. Bad foreign policy, crypto, like, it can apply to everything. And I think Senator John Ossoff has been messaging this and I think a really effective, interesting way. We'll drop in a clip here.

[John Ossoff (clip)]

How much do you guys know about Jared Kushner, Ivanka's husband? He's on the Saudi payroll for $2 billion, and now he's leading American diplomacy in the Middle east, apparently, while at the very same time asking princes and sheikhs across the Arab world to give him billions more. Can you imagine, like a normal sitting US Ambassador just hitting up Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for billions of dollars? The rules are for us, not for them. And it's not just Jared getting in on the action. A company owned in part by Eric and Don Jr. Has been pitching Gulf kingdoms on its drone interceptors during this war. Never before have we seen so little effort to hide so much corruption.

[Tommy Vietor]

Do you think this is effective messaging? What Ossoff is saying? Is this kind of thing, like popping in groups?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And here's the thing about corruption. Okay. So I'm going to put a different frame on it, which is, like I said, people are focused on prices, they're focused on affordability. But you can make everything an economic issue. Corruption, especially, can be an economic issue. Right. It's about a total story you're telling, and it's saying, he's getting rich while you're getting poor. Everything has to have the contrast to it. You know, I remember I'm talking to people. I'm like, him bad. You good. Like, let's get, like, some real basics, right? Trump bad, you good. Republicans bad. Damn, that's right. He break, we fix. It's like, get the contrast in there. I am minorly developing an obsession with Jon Ossoff entirely based on tight shirts and good messages, which is funny because that's not for me exactly. But it is.

[Tommy Vietor]

Me either. But it's hard not to see it yet.

[Sarah Longwell]

But, man, the calm stuff just has me swooning.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes. The demeanor, the vibes, the way he's doing.

[Sarah Longwell]

So there's a couple things he's doing. One is cadence. He's holding an audience in his hand. And that's the stuff you can't teach. Some of it is the handsomeness of it all. Like, the optics of feeling like, oh, you look like a person I could see being president. He's got nice young man energy, similar to Obama and some others. Pete Buttigieg has some of that nice young man energy, which I think works with a lot of the moms. I think there's always a soccer mom or a security mom or whatever. Let's just have the nice young man moms. They could be coming out for Democrats this time. But the thing about Ossoff is that he is a natural contrast storyteller. He is saying. And a lot of people get. They worry, well, look, if I start talking about Corruption, People are gonna get bored or they don't understand the ins and outs. He trusts people to understand where he's going with it. And he says, have you heard? Did you know?

[Tommy Vietor]

Did you see this?

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm here to give you this information if you haven't been getting it in your bubbles.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's so good, it's so simple. It's like an old Leno bit. It's like, did you hear about this one? You read this one?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And so I am finding him, from an optics, cadence and message discipline standpoint, to be doing the thing that I've been feeling pretty desperate for politicians to do, which is find a way to rhetorically get your arms around the chaos and people get distracted. It feels like it's so much, and the voters feel like it's too much. But he's like, no, gonna focus your attention on these things. And they provide the contrast, not just him versus Trump, but the way in which he's approaching issues versus the corruption of Trump and corruption. Trump's getting richer, you're getting poorer. That's the contrast.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. Maria Bartiromo saying, congrats, Don and Eric, on your drone contract from the Pentagon or whatever.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know if you know this, but Hunter Biden had a painting.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Ye.

[Tommy Vietor]

I want to talk about how Democrats should chip away at this Trump coalition from 2024 and kind of build their own big, motley, anti Trump coalition. You and your co hosts on the next level had a spirited debate about Tucker Carlson and his turn from Trump and denunciation of Trump. Let's listen to Tucker talking about that.

[Tucker Carlson (clip)]

You and I and everyone else who supported him. You wrote speeches for him. I campaigned for him. I mean, we're implicated in this for sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Tucker Carlson (clip)]

It's not enough to say, well, I changed my mind, or like, oh, this is bad, I'm out. It's like, in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Tucker Carlson (clip)]

So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people and was not intentional. That's all I'll say.

[Tommy Vietor]

You and JBL and Tim, I think you guys had sort of different takes on how to respond to Tucker or what you made of Tucker. I'll let you talk about that, but I think I sort of landed in a middle ground listening to you Guys, Yes. Tucker is someone I think we should be skeptical of because he's sort of in the media political business. It was knowable and there's evidence that he did know that Trump was a charlatan. But I do think he was sincerely disappointed and angry that Trump went full neocon and like invaded Venezuela and now is at war with Iran. A lot of it is undergirded by this anger at the Israeli government and Bibi Netanyahu that can bear into anti Semitism and we have to watch that. But I'm curious, like, how do you think Democrats use these comments? Because it's him, it's Alex Jones, it's Candace Owens. Not like Lib fan favorites usually, but saying things that are potentially helpful to us.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, this, I think this ends up being like kind of weirdly an academic debate as opposed to a practical one, because as a practical matter, use the shit out of all of it, right? Like amplify the fractures in their coalition, like again, just with the framework of him Good, they bad, like you want them to fall apart. You want to hold your side together, like. And I think that though people get wrapped up a little bit in whether you have to sort of welcome people into the tent. This is a phrase. People decide who's in the coalition and who's out of the coalition. Is there a gate somewhere?

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, this has been a big, big conversation lately, right? I mean, I know you guys have also talked about Hasan Piker, who is a more leftist sort of twitch streamer who said some offensive things about Israel or a bunch of other topics. And that's been part of this question too. And like, I don't know. How do you think about that? How do you. How do we define whether there are gates?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, I think, look, there's sort of like, is something somebody says bad objectively? Right. So I think Tucker Carlson is a malign actor. I think he is a liar. I think the reason that he has decided to take on Trump on this issue isn't because he's got super sincerely held beliefs, or maybe he does as part of his worldview. But also he was specifically brought into the White House multiple times, I think, tried to talk Trump out of Iran. Trump went against him, now Tucker's going against him. They're all falling apart. But Tucker is not a good person, in my opinion. I think he has been a malign actor on our politics and I think he does overall more damage. That doesn't mean that Tucker Carlson doesn't have an audience and doesn't play a role in helping to sort of fracture that coalition. And so sometimes amplifying his disagreements. He is a particular kind of messenger for people. But that's like a utility. It's not, hey, let's have them in the coalition. And because there is no.

[Tommy Vietor]

Because they're not part of. They don't wanna be part of the coalition.

[Sarah Longwell]

But also because there is no gatekeeping around the coalition. Right. Like, there's nobody who decides, really. I mean, the DNC can decide who speaks at a. Who gets a platform. But like. And that was sort of, you know, my argument with Tim around Piker was I felt like Tim, and Tim knows this. I don't want to, like, speak out of school because he's not here to defend himself. But I felt like he was kind of downplaying some of the toxicity of the things that Piker was saying. And more than that, I just cared about on our platform. I didn't want it to sound like we didn't have a clear sense of who this guy is and what he is saying and what he talks about. But, like, if that guy says, I like Jon Ossoff because I agree with his views on this, well, I'm like, okay, that's. So I just. This idea of people being gatekeepers on this stuff. But I do think we should all, as moral actors be gatekeepers about what is right and what is wrong. And so for me, if my lines are liberal versus illiberal, then when people are using violent rhetoric, if they side with terrorists or wanna pump up terrorists or celebrate them in ways, or the Chinese Communist government or Putin's annexation of Crimea or that 911 happening was a. What was it? America deserved 9 11. And people are like, these are out of context. And then I go and watch the context and I'm like, they're not out of context. You have an explanation for why you think these things to be true. Okay, well, that's an academic debate or an intellectual debate, and we can have that debate. I'm just telling you I think those things are wrong. And I think as a moral line, I think that they're not good. But that doesn't mean. But the idea that podcasters can't talk to each other or people can't debate ideas.

[Tommy Vietor]

So you're not de platforming because that was very 2018 through 2020. Right. It's like all the scolding of people who went on Joe Rogan or scolding of barstool sports or things.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, but people conflate the idea of saying I think that person's ideas are bad or I object to what that person's saying. I don't think stealing stuff from stores is an act of righteous courage against corporations. Like I think that is. I think that's basically you've decided, okay, well, we're just going to opt out of having a society and laws. And to me, those are illiberal things and I'm trying to. Part of the reason I objected to Donald Trump was the illiberalism of Donald Trump, the violent rhetoric of Donald Trump. Now, Sam Piker's like a streamer who most of the country doesn't know about.

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, yeah, he's not President Trump's president.

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[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

because you don't want to fall to that lower space.

[Pete (Pod Save America co-host)]

It's called the Region Beta Paradox.

[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

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[Pete (Pod Save America co-host)]

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[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

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[Tommy Vietor]

Maybe like a less discussed, maybe more complicated, more interesting case is Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Okay.

[Tommy Vietor]

Who has voted in some bad ways, said some noxious things, it's held some terrible views. But I gotta say, I listened to her, I've been listening to her pretty closely for the better part of a year. Talk about her opposition to the war in Iran, some of the things she said about the war in Venezuela, things she's been saying about Gaza. And it just, it strikes me as totally sincere. And now maybe it's all a political game that is setting up a run for the presidency in 2028. Whatever, we'll find out. But it was interesting. I was talking to Ilhan Omar a couple weeks ago about this and whether she had reached out to Marjorie Taylor Greene and it was interesting to hear like Ilhan Omar, who's taken more attacks, who's been treated more viciously by mtg. And a lot of Republicans showed such grace and was like, yeah, we should, you know, give her a hug, welcome her to the coalition. I thought it was interesting to hear that from her that she was thinking like that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And I think, look, I think grace is good. And I think part of what's happening, though, is like, they're finding common ground. Right. Like, they share their feelings about Israel, I think are, like, both sincerely held and are maybe closer to each other than Marjorie Taylor Greene's are to many in her own party.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

And that might be true of Ilhan Omar and some of the members of her own party. And so if they can, they find that common ground. And so. But, like, that might not be true if they didn't have, like, an issue that was binding them together that they both care passionately about. And that is. I think that increased skepticism of Israel is totally warranted in this moment. I think that increased skepticism of the American government is quite warranted in this moment. But that wouldn't necessarily bind me together with somebody. That wouldn't be the glue that holds us together. But I think that we have and have had now for a while, a fracturing of the old way of politics orienting the parties. And so as these issues shift and there's these huge changes in the way people are thinking about different things, Israel being one of them, you're gonna start to see sort of the strange bedfellows.

[Tommy Vietor]

Totally.

[Sarah Longwell]

But politics is always like that, Right? Politics finds strange bedfellows, and I think that is fine. Again, this is. Where is it really welcoming somebody into a coalition? Because I think there's a difference. And this is when you say, I carry you, we're together in this. And this is why the question of, do politicians go on these more really incendiary podcasters, people who are more sort of shock jock politics? It's like, okay, there's two sides of that coin. There's the side that's trying to reach audience. And so you need to go do everything everywhere all at once. You got to be going, finding audience, going into uncomfortable places, having new conversations. You also have the judgment to know that for some people, you will end up owning some of their baggage and some of the worst things that they said if you're not willing to press them on it or engage in it. And so that is the thing with Marjorie Taylor Greene is like, I think that she got into Congress and thought maybe it was gonna be easier for her to just love Trump enough to get things done. And then that didn't happen, and now maybe she's mad she didn't have enough influence or whatever. She's looking for influence in other ways. I just don't know that I think I'm not gonna be like, boy, I really wanna run, hang out with Marjorie Taylor Greene, but JBL does.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'd love to work out with her, Maybe do a little crossfit. No, it's just an interesting conversation. Just sort of like thinking about how Democrats offer grace, whether the amount, number of hoops we make you jump through to kind of, like, get to be treated as sincere versus Trump, who's like, oh, you like Trump? Oh, you called me Hitler back in the day. You're VP now, J.D. vance. You know what I mean? Like, oh, Bobby Kennedy, you like Trump now? You hate these vaccines. Fuck it. I hate vaccines, too. You're like, come on in.

[Sarah Longwell]

But that's bad, right? We think it's bad.

[Tommy Vietor]

It was a brittle coalition ultimately.

[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

But we ultimately don't think it's good as a objective matter that J.D. vance specifically, who did say Trump was Hitler, then was like, please, Mr. Trump, let me be all your things, all for you. I just love you.

[Tommy Vietor]

I hope you hear Goebbels. I will do what you need.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, it's a joke, but. So I guess there's the part of me that is. Again, every successful political coalition that has ever existed has involved, like, especially at really fractious times, has involved lots of strange bedfellows, has involved lots of weird coalitions. So I think you want your coalition to be as big as possible. And I don't think we can or, like, we can't, like, police who everybody talks to. Like, what you want out of your political leadership is you want somebody who's so good up here. This is why what I was objecting to is the idea that you have to go on someone's podcast to reach their audience. My point is a bigger point that's much beyond, like, a particular person. It is. If Jon Ossoff is really good, he will make me and Hasan Piker be like, I support that guy. Not because he comes to us to, like, reach our audience. I think we've gotten a little too obsessed with the. These micro conversations around Joe Rogan of the left or podcasters in general. Actually, it's about the candidates. It's the candidates. Can they show leadership and can we find ways to say, I can support that person? And can they appeal to a really large coalition for A variety of reasons. And you want it to be because they're leaning into the good things, the things that we're like, yes, I find goodness in this person. And a lot of people tag into them. Not, hey, I hate the same people you do, right?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes, for sure. We want unifying messages, especially on our side. Let me just ask you a couple more things about Iran, because I can imagine like a half dozen ways that this is bad for Trump politically. There's gas prices are up, people are sick of wars in the Middle east. Generally. The price tag of the war itself is huge. Like 30 billion, $40 billion already has been burned. Then there's the fact that Trump lied and he said he would not go to war in the Middle East. What are you hearing, though, from voters who are expressing frustration about the war, especially the Trump supporters you guys have talked to who've spoken out?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I would say the main thing is people thought, and this was always my take on it was Trump could get away with it if it was a really short period of time. Because if it was kind of an in and out, like the first Iran

[Tommy Vietor]

bombing was 12 day war.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's like voters, by the time it's happened, it's like it's our. You already buy it with the voters and they're back to caring just about costs. The longer this goes on, you've got two things. You've got the impacts here at home, which is really around gas prices, but ultimately is going to be all things getting more expensive, which on top of the tariffs. And this is the thing about something like the Iran war. Voters know what caused it. Voters know that tariffs caused the price increases. And they know that the war in Iran is causing gas. Gas price increases. Okay? When they know where it came from, that's the first bucket of the problem. Then you get to the second bucket of the problem, which is you said no more of this stuff. You want to go in and do a smash and grab job like Venezuela or whatever, and I don't have to feel it, fine. You end up in a prolonged thing where now I'm listening to you be like, hey, Vietnam was 18 years. What are you guys complaining about?

[Tommy Vietor]

What a crazy comment, by the way.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And then they're like, wait a minute, because this is where Trump is boxed in on this. And this is going back to Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson. The thing about them is that they are creating. There's a fracture in the Republican Party right now. There's the America First Wing, which is, no, we're not Gonna do wars, cuz we're gonna focus on people here at home. Then there's the MAGA establishment and that is the Rubio and that is Trump. And. And so America Firsters are like, you are not helping the American people. You are lying. You're not doing what you said. And there was a real part of his coalition that feels betrayed because Trump. And again, this is when I say everything's an economic issue, it's like we hired you to do one thing, man, maybe two. Maybe we wanted you to also secure the border, but like it was about prices and you're not doing it. And so literally everything you're doing that is not. That makes us mad.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, you hear this from Nick Fuentes, you hear this from very vocal people. Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens. A lot of people. Again, a lot of flawed messengers there, but they have audience. You mentioned Epstein a minute ago. So the Epstein files saga, it was long, but it feels like a lifetime ago at this point. But how much does the mishandling of Epstein kind of linger with voters who are angry with him and how, how does it manifest?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, so the main thing again is it goes to. A lot of Trump's voters believed that the essential promise of Trump, of Trump. So I think there's the people who. These are the more casual voters who are just like, Trump's a business guy, he's gonna lower prices. But then there's the voters who are like, no, Trump is gonna smash the system. And all of the things you guys have been hiding from us. The deep state talk a lot about this in the book. The grammar of hidden knowledge, the idea that there are big structural forces keeping information from regular people and meant to keep people down, Trump was gonna disrupt all that.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

When you don't get the Epstein files and for whatever reason, it's funny, if you go back, Kash Patel promised the Epstein files. Bondi promised the Epstein files. Trump didn't really.

[Tommy Vietor]

Trump barely. He was like, yeah, we'll look at that.

[Sarah Longwell]

J.D. vance promised the Epstein files. This was not what Trump wanted to do.

[Tommy Vietor]

It was not.

[Sarah Longwell]

And Trump is mad now.

[Tommy Vietor]

Now we know why, that he is

[Sarah Longwell]

at the center of it. But they feel like it disrupts the central promise of his, which is that I was gonna be your guy who's gonna show you everything and be transparent. And so they just. And they basically have started to be like, probably, yeah, he's in them, you know, and it like, we know he's in them now. And so I do think there's the people who have either decided that matters to them because it is disrupted. So much of this is cumulative. It's not just the Epstein files. It's like, well, I didn't get the Epstein files, and I don't wanna get lower prices. And people are basically like, I guess I get a secure border and like, bad stuff's happening to trans people. Like, that's the only thing.

[Tommy Vietor]

He's mean to my enemies.

[Sarah Longwell]

He's mean to my enemies. Like, that is the only thing that they feel like is going right for Trump and the rest of it they're not getting. And people are like, they'll generally. They'll kind of reach for the trans stuff as something that they're glad about, but, like, that's not driving their votes. That's not the essential thing pushing most people.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And the other interesting thing about Epstein that I was. I think you guys talked about this on one of your focus group episodes was being into conspiracy theories used to be a thing that maybe people were embarrassed about. Now they're like, oh, I'm a big conspiracy theory person. It's like they're proud. And I don't know, maybe they all just feel vindicated by the Epstein thing because, like, QAnon was just kind of aiming at the wrong target in hindsight. But it's interesting.

[Sarah Longwell]

What did one guy say? He was like, how does a conspiracy theory goes turn into effect? And it's like, just give it time. But what is amazing is you used to hear people start their sentences with, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but. And you were always kind of like, okay, I'm waiting to hear the conspiracy.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm waiting time.

[Sarah Longwell]

But now they're like, I'm a big conspiracy theorist. And let me tell you what I think about Erica Kirk's like, the body's buried in her basement. You know, I mean, the Candace Owens of it all. The extent to which the conspiracy, I mean, used to be like, you'd go to the grocery store and there'd be like, bat boy, kill seven or whatever stuff we used to see. And America's always had a strain of, you know, there's a second gunman on the grassy knoll and whatever. They like it. It's fun now. And the way that people own it now shows you how much people are leaning into this as a way of politics, as entertainment, the characters that they watch. And this is something that the right does in some ways, to its benefit and to its detriment, which is that they are creating an ecosystem of, like, Maga soap opera stars that people follow. Like, that's Will Sommer.

[Tommy Vietor]

Oh, I know. Thank God for Will, because I wouldn't know what the hell was going on. Like, who's mad at who and who did what in the ballroom at TPUSA event. Anyway.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And there's a lot of, like, minor celebrities that. I mean, Will Summer's constantly saying, like, well, so and so. And I'm like, I'm sorry, who is that? And he's like, you know, the girl who threw up in the plant at the Mar A Lago? And I'm like, I don't know this story. And so the conspiracy stuff is. And again, you hear it with people saying, well, I trust the plan. Whatever Trump's doing, I trust the plan. I mean, it's sort of like it's all the way from deep QAnon stuff that can be pernicious and kind of dangerous and lead somebody to show up at a pizza shop with a gun all the way over to Bravo doesn't have a new series now. So I'm, like, really into what's happening with Erica.

[Tommy Vietor]

That's so true. And the other thing, I mean, look, I. Having worked in government, I've just found that, like, big government conspiracies are unlikely because when you have a bunch of people read into something, the odds of it remaining a secret are very low, and the government tends to be incompetent at.

[Sarah Longwell]

I was just gonna say, like, you think the government can't figure out how to solve a bunch of these problems, but you think they know how to cover up the moon landing?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, exactly.

[Sarah Longwell]

They fake that stuff, but you can

[Tommy Vietor]

totally see the appeal of it, which is, like, simple answers to why the world can feel chaotic and scary and why bad things happen to good people. Right. Like, oh, it's because of that.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is why, you know, I tend to still be. Despite all of the chaos we see, really, like, firmly pro American voter, because in some ways, they are being poisoned every day and they're being lied to by their government every single day. I think that whether it's Epstein, whether it's the way that Trump has talked about war in Iran, we are both being lied to, and the only way we're getting information is on his janky social media feed. And that's how things are coming. His privately owned. I have a hard time blaming the American people who for a long time are like, but he's the president. He certainly wouldn't lie about all of this stuff. And I just. And they're trying to Parse this new information. Like this propaganda works, which is a nightmare. And there's conflict merchants everywhere telling them who to hate and how to hate and ginning people up. And so I just feel like people. That's why I like the focus groups. They're actually much nicer in person than actually the way when people fight with you on the Internet and they're just screaming things at you. People in the groups, they're really wrestling with stuff. They're just coming away with some wild conclusions. But you can see how they get there if you listen to them based on the world that we live in.

[Tommy Vietor]

Totally. And the algorithms that they're getting forced into.

[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

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[Tommy Vietor]

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[Pete (Pod Save America co-host)]

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[Pete (Pod Save America co-host)]

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[Tommy Vietor]

A couple of quick issue things I'm just wondering if you're hearing about. Look, I'm skeptical that a midterm is going to be one on like policy per se, but there are some policy areas that are popping. First of all, there's AI, so there's some districts. Politico had a good write up on this the other day. Where fights over AI data centers are really they're big deals in certain communities that don't want them there or do want them there. And then there's also just sort of anger from the left and the right at big tech, at the tech oligarchs. And it's the kind of thing where you could listen, I could read you a sentence and it could be Bernie Sanders or it could be Steve Bannon, right? And it's like verbatim, the same language. How much are you hearing about AI? Big tech in your groups?

[Sarah Longwell]

So tons of AI. Not nearly enough about big tech. And let me so the. I was actually, when I was doing the focus groups, specifically on the races for Mikey Sherrill, Abigail Spanberger, in both those races, the AI data centers were a huge issue. Came up all the time because people know how much water they're using.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

They know that they're raising their energy prices. Again, it's an economic issue for them. They're like. They're like, hey, it's getting more expensive for me. And both of them made them parts of their campaigns, like they were addressing it, because it's clearly something they're hearing from voters all the time. And this is. But on the other thing, on the tech oligarchs, and this is. I also talk about this in the book, and I need you to do

[Tommy Vietor]

me a favor, and I'm in.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay. Go tell all your Democratic friends that they keep doing this thing where they're like, big corporations, they're the bad guys. I'm like, can you guys just. Okay, I'm not here to talk you out of there. Don't say. Could you please just really focus on the big tech oligarchs?

[Tommy Vietor]

Sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

Because they are both becoming outrageously wealthy at the expense of the health, both mental and physical, of the American people. They are taking two of our dominant human emotions, fear and anger, and they are algorithmically, for their own profit. And to keep us on those things, they are making us want to hate each other. They are the poisoners in many cases, or they're the platforms that deliver the poison and try and keep you there. And, like, Elon Musk should be an enemy that we name. Peter Thiel should be an enemy that we name. And you know what? It's not just that these guys walked in to help Trump because they knew he doesn't care about people. He doesn't care about their health and wellbeing, and he was gonna help them be profitable. He's gonna let them raid our data like these. We are not talking enough about the tech oligarchs as a specific element of the problem. You just say big, nameless, faceless corporation. Fine. You know what? Most Americans work for corporations. And so the tech oligarchs, though, they are bleeding us. And look, I think there's lots of promise for AI too, and there's lots of downsides. I'm not just, like, reflexively against it, but we do need to sort of balance our humanity here. And I think that these guys are not. There's a reason Elon Musk talks about immigration all the time. He wants to make sure that we think Immigrants are the problem and not the tech oligarchs. Like, they are playing a distraction game. And I do think people need to. So if you could just tell your friends who we're talking about, I'll tell them the big thing.

[Tommy Vietor]

Hey, listen up. Well, would you include Mark Zuckerberg? What about Google? Tim Cook over at Apple? I mean, look, I fundamentally agree with you. I think that the more specificity in messaging, the better, for a whole host of reasons, but in part, just it's easier to visualize the enemy when you name it. I'm with you, though. My frustration with the AI industry generally is we watched all these tech barons create social media and tell us it was going to bring the world together and fix all our problems. And it created a massive number of problems. And then you have a bunch of the same people kind of running it back and now doing the AI thing. And it goes from Elon to Mark Zuckerberg over at Facebook and then Sam Altman, who is running Y Combinator for a long time and incubating a lot of these companies. And it just seems like there's no lessons learned. In fact, they care even less about being perceived as good guys. They're just rapacious capitalists who want it all.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay? And so, as somebody who doesn't necessarily discount people just because of rapacious capitalism, I would say my favorite description of the bulwark is people are like, you're the capitalist wing of antifa. So good.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's good.

[Sarah Longwell]

But I think that for me, a lot of it is. And that's why, look, I believe in innovation, and I believe in trying to solve big, intractable problems. And I think technology can be a big part of that. What you do want is for it to not live in a place of nihilism like you want. These guys are becoming extraordinarily powerful, extraordinarily powerful in our politics in ways. I mean, this is why I think the specificity of an Elon Musk. Elon Musk is somebody who I think you can look at and say, this person is doing an enormous amount of damage and doing it on purpose. I don't think every tech oligarch is like that. And I think that we should probably be careful about not sort of lumping in everybody together, because I think there are people who are like, actually there are responsible ways to do this, and what are the ways that you could regulate this. But those people are becoming fewer and further between. And one of the reasons that so many people capitulated to Trump, including Zuckerberg, Including Washington Post, Bezos, Bezos, Elon, whatever is. Cuz they were like, oh, this guy will just do what we want. And I'm not here for the social good. I'm here to get what I want. And look, again, doesn't all have to be social good, but it does have to be with like, I don't know, some sense of responsibility to the health of the country. And Elon is happy, happy to become a trillionaire at the expense of us destroying each other.

[Tommy Vietor]

Absolutely destroying anything in his way. Maha, RFK Jr. Obviously he like exploded into the consciousness, into popularity by demagoguing vaccines, primarily the COVID pandemic, supercharged everything that he was doing. But there was a part of Maha that is totally reasonable, right? It's like healthier foods, less processed foods, fewer chemicals in what we're eating. You know, like thinking more about like what we're feeding kids. Like all of that is eminently reasonable. And I have tons of friends, I'm sure you do too, who were like Maha, curious and were like, well, why are you critical of this RFK guy? Like, what's wrong with any of this? Right? And it becomes a complicated conversation. Conversation. But it was always obvious that as a political matter and as a political coalition, there was going to be tension between sincere Maha and Trump's pro corporation deregulation agenda. Getting rid of the epa, things like that. And you saw this explode recently where they gave this sweetheart legal deal to the folks who make Roundup, which is this big weed killer that a lot of Maha folks absolutely hate because they think it's linked to cancer. Are you hearing anything about Maja these days? Is there anger or opportunity for Democrats?

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, I heard a lot about Maha going into the election. I mean, the number of. It's not just women, but it was a lot of women who were like, I want red dyes out of food. Like they had these specific red dyes. Always won that. I was like, and I'm a parent. But I was like, I haven't, like, I haven't been following. But look, there are a bunch of things, I don't know if you feel this way. There are a bunch of things as you become a parent that are happening with kids where you're like, I don't know, it wasn't like this before. Nobody had. There weren't all these nut allergies, right? Or like there wasn't. You didn't know tons of kids who are autistic or like, there's like all

[Tommy Vietor]

these things, things that feel new things

[Sarah Longwell]

that feel new, right? And so you're like, where is this coming from? Why is this happening? And I think for parents who of autistic children who feel like they don't know exactly why, there's a lot of people who are like, okay, well maybe he's gonna get to the bottom of some of this. And actually I think it's. I'm not sure if I think it's less about what you sound like. It's a little bit more like he's basically a crank who has now is like, well, we are getting rid of vaccines everywhere and we're cutting all this medical research. And what I hear about Maha, when I do hear about it is like, oh, I was excited for rfk, but like, they haven't really gotten anywhere on like X, Y or Z, whatever the bespoke issue was that they were interested in doing it. And in fact, there was a spate of time when they came out, there was a lot of people who were upset about the idea of like it was Tylenol causing autism, in part because mothers felt like they were being blamed. Like the idea that they took Tylenol.

[Tommy Vietor]

This is the only thing you can take when you're pregnant for people pain relief. And to suddenly take that away from women and then say, and by the way, you're at fault if your children has a medical problem because you took that, that is so cruel.

[Sarah Longwell]

And if you don't think that those women haven't figured out how to read 11 peer reviewed studies on these things like they have. And so I think that there was some real frustration about that. Now it doesn't come up as much, I think, in part because I actually think that the amount of damage being done, especially on the. I don't know if you saw this the other day, but they have found an MMRA vaccine that is showing tremendous signs of adding longevity to the lives of people with pancreatic cancer.

[Tommy Vietor]

Extraordinary development.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, extraordinary medical breakthrough. You think we've been spending more money on MRNA vaccines these days or not? And so like, and I think what's unfortunate is that unlike Trump's tariffs and unlike the war in Iran, Americans feel acute pain from those things. The cutting of scientific research, the gutting of those things, it's the kind of thing that takes a decade to show up. And it's also when discovery's not made and therefore much harder to figure out. And so you don't hear as much of that as directly, although it's there, but it's much more focused on prices. But I Just know that we are paying, we're paying a lot and it's just, we're going to, we're going to learn about it down the road.

[Tommy Vietor]

Bills come and do later if a couple more things and I'll get the hell out of your office. So we've been talking about the midterms. Gallup just released some new polling this week about approval of Congress. They just asked people like, do you approve or disapprove of Congress? Like 4%, 10% approve.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

86% disapprove.

[Sarah Longwell]

Congrats guys, you did it.

[Tommy Vietor]

You did it. The all time low is 9%. The partisan breakdown was 20% approval from Republicans, 11% vote from independents, 3% from Democrats, which is not surprising. It's a Republican Congress. Now for contact. Congress's approval rating has been mostly underwater since 1974. The average is 28% approve, 65% disapprove, which is bad, but 10% is terrible. Does that help Democrats, that people hate the institution? We maybe have more challengers. How do you think about that?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, Congress is funny because it's weird to get to such a low approval rating when you're not doing anything, literally nothing. And so I'm actually, I'm like, people are mad that they're not doing anything. And especially on the Democratic side. Here's what I do know. I know that Democratic voters are so frustrated with their leadership. I mean, they are mad. They're like down with the gerontocracy. And if Hakeem, Jeffries and Schumer don't start going toe to toe with Trump and they are not satisfied by the answer of were shut out from political power. They're like, I don't know, you're up there, can you go do something? Like they wanna see reflected back to them. I keep kind of rejecting this fight that we have on Twitter about does the Democratic Party need to be more moderate? Does it need to be more progressive? All the voters really want is for it to be more aggressive. They could sort of take or leave which side of the ideological spectrum you're on as long as you are going in there and reflecting the anger and upsetness that they feel at what Trump is doing. And when you're not doing that, they are mad, which is, I think, where you're getting sort of those Democratic numbers. And I think, look, so much of this is just, you gave me a body of the government and I think things are going terribly in the country. And so I wanna tell you that I think they're doing a terrible Job because the country feels bad. So I don't know that I. And just in terms of how it affects the midterms, people blame the party in power. I mean this is the only reason that I think Democrats can't pick up the kind of seats that they picked up in 2018 is cuz there's not enough seats available. Like there's just because it's so close right now, they can't pick up 40 seats. But like they can certainly take control.

[Tommy Vietor]

To win 40 seats, we'd have to be winning like Trump plus 12 districts.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And I think like look, you can get a wave where you are picking up Trump plus seven districts, Trump plus eight districts. I mean that wave would have to be so big. But you know what, I'm not discounting it in part because look, Democrats are extraordinarily motivated and Republicans are sucking wind.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes. And that's where the Tucker stuff I think helps enthusiasm. Pressing that MAGA base, like I love that. Well, one counterpoint to this, the New York Times reported that Republicans have a $600 million advantage in terms of fundraising, like Republican groups over Democratic ones. How much does that worry you? Because I think it's easy after 2024 to be like, we pissed away $1 billion, didn't move the vote a goddamn point. Yeah, who cares anymore? But in midterms it's a bit of a different story often.

[Sarah Longwell]

So okay. It doesn't worry me that much in the sense that the voters are given to the candidates, like the Democratic candidates, like Talarico and Cooper and Mary Patola, like they're putting up huge numbers like way over their Republican counterparts. And so there's an asymmetry that is on either side where the actual Democratic candidates are outraising their Republican counterparts, whereas the Republican infrastructure and the committees are out raising their Democratic counterparts.

[Tommy Vietor]

And the PACs.

[Sarah Longwell]

And so. And the PACs. Right. So there's like tons of the big money coming in. Whereas I think a lot of the big money on the left is. Yeah. Feeling scarred and scared. People don't wanna put their names on FEC reports cuz Trump will go after them. Like that is a real thing that is happening. Which. And that's why, look, I don't know how much money's going into C4s or stuff, but like that money might be evening out somewhere. But there is a lot of chilling of civic participation via donation dollars because people are afraid of showing up on Donald Trump's radar.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And the doj.

[Sarah Longwell]

So it worries me from that shot. It worries me from that point of view. And then it worries me, I think, from. I don't want to just like, you know, crap on Ken Martin, but I do think that the DNC could stand to up its game a little bit.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. Actually, we've been in touch with Ken's team. We're hoping to get him on the show sometime next week to talk about this and the fundraising and some of the concerns because it's a challenging atmosphere. I'm sure it is an absolute slogan for him to try to rebuild that place and clear the decks after 2024. But, yeah, I'm anxious like you are. And also. But you're right, the candidate fundraising is better on the Democratic side. And that's also important because you get more efficient ad rates as a elected official than you do as a party committee or a pac. So that's something.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And for people who are like, oh, get money out of politics and stuff, I totally. Yeah, I hear, I hear you. But as right now, right when you have only so many metrics for things like money, especially to candidates, is a good metric for enthusiasm. And so the idea that these Democratic candidates are outperforming on the money side is just a good metric for, I think, enthusiasm, especially in a midterm and not a presidential.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Tommy Vietor]

Last question. Let's just end with some maybe irresponsible, definitely premature speculation about 2028 on the Republican side. You have a great piece in the Atlantic this week about how groups are the focus groups. Trump voters are talking more and more about Marco Rubio, the archivist. I think that's his only job. And less about J.D. vance. Yeah, tell us more about that.

[Sarah Longwell]

So this is. Marco Rubio is maybe the first candidate I've seen where like a meme seems to be springing to life.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

And so the meme of Marco Rubio in the chair like this with the new job, whatever the job is, like, is he the new coach of the Panthers? Like every, every garbage job that you can get, it actually it is, it is a, it's a funny joke, but what it is showing people, or I think what people are taking away from that is like, there is one person in this administration who's not a total clown.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, and so you gotta give him all the jobs, cuz he's the only actual serious person. And then that's one piece of it. And then another piece is they're kind of looking around and it's like J.D. vance, who people still will say is the heir apparent. And like, okay, yeah, I like JD on the MAGA side. I don't really feel it. He is for me, in focus groups now, having done this long enough to see different candidates rise and fall. He's got total Ron DeSantis vibes from Republican voters.

[Tommy Vietor]

My lips to God's ears.

[Sarah Longwell]

The longer they look at him, the more they're like. And so they wanna like him or they wanna do it, but he's not lighting anybody up. And he's getting himself in a sour spot with those two groups I'm talking about that he thought he was gonna be able to stand over both of them and bring them together. And instead he's sitting in the bad spot where Tucker's got this part marshaled over here and Rubio's starting to marshal the MAGA establishment over here. And so that is just interesting to me. It also doesn't help that Donald Trump walks around his, you know, the White House being like, who do you like better, JD Or Marco?

[Tommy Vietor]

You know, crazy. Every donor at Margo Lago is getting asked who he likes better, Rubio or Vance. Also like, look, Rubio, I think, gets a lot of credit from the base on Venezuela operation because he's seen as owning that one. Yeah. When it comes to Iran, they started a war and Marco Rubio has disappeared. He went to the States.

[Sarah Longwell]

He went to the ufc fight.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

J.D. vance went over. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

To fucking Pakistan. J.D. vance, like, sits on the tarmac for 21 hours in Pakistan, gets humiliated, flies home, and Marco goes to a UFC fight. But also, Marco Rubio did one press conference where he went up on Capitol Hill and he was like, oh, yeah, we invaded because the Israel, the lobby made us do it. And then he walked away and created this huge disaster for everyone involved and then has not said a word since. He's just divorced himself from this problem. Probably smart politically.

[Sarah Longwell]

Probably smart politically. I think. And this is so, look, I think that those two are an interesting contrast to me. And I just, I think for me, one of the reasons I'm so interested in hearing the strange new respect from Trump voters in the focus groups is I think I had long thought that people from the pre Trump era, Republicans from the pre Trump era were a non starter for voters. But what's interesting is that especially for younger voters, they don't even know Marco Rubio. The Marco Rubio that I was like, oh, this young man, I like him. We'll see what he does.

[Tommy Vietor]

The guy who drank the water.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that's why. But you know, he was like, he was gonna be the new person he led on immigration reform, whatever.

[Tommy Vietor]

Time magazine, right? It was like the future.

[Sarah Longwell]

Nobody thinks that, like, these guys don't know that guy. They just know the guy who's been in the tank for Trump. And so they're sort of meeting him for the first time. People who are like 30 and below. And then for a lot of the other people, he's been enough of a lapdog for Trump and transformed himself enough that like, I obviously would never vote for him in a million years, ever. But a lot of Trump voters might, like, they wouldn't. Nikki Haley, but he's transformed himself enough. That was interesting to me. I will just say on the Republican side, I think this is another reason I don't give Tucker sort of the genuine thing is like, I do think Tucker's thinking about running for president.

[Tommy Vietor]

I think, look, I was talking to someone yesterday who's sort of in that world. I asked this question. He thought, no, because it's like a lot of work. And also you have to have a genuine thick stuff skin. And Tucker doesn't seem like he's someone who's very pugilistic. But look, I, I, yeah, I've long wondered if he, he could jump into a primary and do very well on the Republican side.

[Sarah Longwell]

He would immediately Have a base of support.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it would be interesting. Last question. On the Democratic side, is anyone making your heart flutter?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. So I already mentioned Ossoff and his communication style. Look, I, I tend to be, I, I, I, I, I'm from Pennsylvania. People get mad. They're like, no one will ever nominate Josh Shapiro. But like if you follow Pennsylvania politics closely, he is beloved in Pennsylvania. There's just not that many Democrats who have, you know, a 60% approval rating. He's gonna beat his Democratic challenger. People are like, I'm sorry, his Republican challenger. Everybody's like, I'm sorry, yeah. Who's he even running against?

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't even know.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's a woman. I'm forgetting her name right now. But like it's a non starter. It's not going anywhere.

[Pete (Pod Save America co-host)]

No.

[Sarah Longwell]

He's gonna fire.

[Tommy Vietor]

Cause he crushed Mastriano too.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. And she's a. Well, there's also part of the reason is there's like a now there's like a weird Mastriano write in thing that people are doing. Yeah. It doesn't matter anyway. But Pete, Jon Ossoff Shapiro because he's successful in the biggest swing state. Like all three of them are kind of in my zone for people. But like here's the main reason. And actually I'm not going to put Josh Shapiro in this. He's kind of like a personal. I like him, but I recognize that the Democratic base seems to have some particular feelings about him.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's a matter of how salient Gaza is probably right.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean we're getting at one of my pet theory. Yes. Well that is what people don't like about him.

[Tommy Vietor]

Stacey Garrity, by the way.

[Sarah Longwell]

Stacey Garrity. Good job. Way to effort that.

[Tommy Vietor]

Thank you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do have a pet theory that the way that Democrats deal with what is becoming, I'm not even sure it's as much of a wedge issue because Democratic voters now are pretty, I mean I can't tell you how many focus groups I do with Dems in these Dem primaries. They all know who AIPAC is giving money to. It's not just sort of track aipac, like people are locked in on this issue. They are mad at Israel. It is shifting quickly among Democratic and independent voters. And so I do think, I think that the, one of the ways that Democrats could handle this is by having a Jewish candidate who is deeply critical of Israel. JB Pritzker fits that bill. Ossoff fits that bill and Shapiro fits that bill.

[Tommy Vietor]

Rahm erasure Rahm Emanuel Erasure.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't mean to erase Rahm. I think Rahm's gonna. I think Rahm's gonna inject some interesting energy into the primary.

[Tommy Vietor]

You need a lot of energy.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do not think that's where voters are going to Insider. Yeah. And I just think people are looking for a brand new, like, not brand brand new, but like, someplace we haven't trod before. Not a long history. And so. But the thing is, I'll just say Pete does make my heart go pitter patter, because Pete does the thing that I'm desperate for Democrats to do, which is, look, it's not just going on podcasts. And I saw you guys reacting to his thing, and I did not think you were nice enough to him.

[Tommy Vietor]

Dude, the Pete hive boy, if you are. Like, all I said about Pete was, I think he's one of the best communicators out there. He's unbelievably good. You could set him anywhere. Fox News, conservatives, all in podcasts, anyone. He'll dominate CNBC crush Joe Kernan. But all I said was I thought that is actually kind of a different skill than being able to go into every community and get votes in every community. Because as we've seen, his numbers with black voters, for example, are, like, very, very low. And he really needs to work on that.

[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

That was.

[Tommy Vietor]

It was an observation about data. People take that shit so personally.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, Well, I think part of it is that Pete. Part of the reason that we take it personally is Pete inspires love in people. They really do. And he does that kind of, for me, where I think that he is this idea of like, I'm gonna go to Oklahoma and I'm gonna talk to people there.

[Tommy Vietor]

I think that's great, by the way.

[Sarah Longwell]

And the thing is, is that while we tend to get in these Twitter arguments about, do you go on this podcast or this streamer, he's like, oh, I'm gonna actually go in the world, sit with people. Because that's actually the real thing. The rest of this stuff over here, agreed, is a sideshow to the real voters. And so, because I'm obsessed with listening to voters, I'm obsessed with candidates who care about engaging with voters. This was like young Joe Biden with the arm around people and, like, being around Trump with his stupid rallies, but, like, creating good dance party vibes, like, the Democrat who is gonna win, who I do think is gonna be somebody who manages to not tip over into saccharine or treacle, but does have a very clear sense of vision, hope future, how we come back together as a country. I do think people are hungry for that. I think he has it. And Ossoff has just been. I think messaging matters more now than ever. And I think he is doing it. And every time I see him give a speech, I kind of do a lap in the room with my hands. Yes.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it's hard not to just turn into a cheerleader for the guy. If he wins that Georgia Senate election with which, you know, knock on wood, he will be vaulted into, you know, top, top candidates, and I'll be there vaulting. I'll be pushing him. Sarah Longwell, thank you so much for doing this. Fascinating to talk to you. I really appreciate it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, thanks, Tommy. Good to see you.

[Tommy Vietor]

You too.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'll put gas in your car next time.

[John (Pod Save America co-host)]

If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricket.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. Jordan Kanter is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Hayley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Kiril Pelaviev, David Toles and Ryan Young, our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America EAS.