Which Democrats Have What It Takes to Win the White House?

Summary

Pod Save America: "Which Democrats Have What It Takes to Win the White House?"

Episode Date: May 17, 2026
Host: Dan Pfeiffer
Guest: David Axelrod
Theme: Analyzing Democratic hopefuls for 2028, party strategy post-midterms, and what it takes to win the White House.

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Episode Overview

Dan Pfeiffer sits down with longtime Democratic strategist and CNN commentator David Axelrod for a deep dive into the current landscape of Democratic politics following pivotal midterms and major court rulings. The conversation explores how internal party dynamics, shifting voter moods, and candidate qualities will shape the next presidential cycle. With midterm results still reverberating, they break down emerging talent, campaign messaging, and the crucial issues likely to define 2028.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Anti-Establishment Wave in Both Parties

• Voter Discontent: Axelrod highlights a profound distrust of Washington, referencing polling where "70% of people... say the system is corrupt and rigged against them." (02:46, 20:12)
• Maine Primary Shakeup: The victory of grassroots candidate Platner over the establishment-aligned Janet Mills is seen as symptomatic of a larger anti-incumbent, anti-gerontocracy sentiment. (02:46–07:18)
  • Quote: “Getting drafted against your will is a bad way to enter a race. Don’t back into a race.” — David Axelrod [07:18]
• Lessons from Obama’s 2008 Campaign: Success came from critiquing both parties and institutional DC, resonating with a desire for change.

2. Texas as a Senate Battleground

• James Talarico's Emergence: Seen as a uniquely talented, persuasive candidate with significant inroads among Latino voters; Obama's support indicates campaign confidence. (12:16–32:31)
  • Quote: “If anyone can do it, it’s James Talarico… In this year, particularly against Paxton.” — Dan Pfeiffer [12:21]
• Trump’s Focus on Religious and Cultural Attacks: Notable clip with Trump attempting to brand Talarico as a “vegan,” “anti-Jesus” candidate, suggesting early Republican nervousness. (07:58, 25:24)
• Latino Voter Shifts: Trump’s standing with Latino voters has plummeted by 30 points since 2024; Talarico’s strategy includes leveraging his faith to build cross-cultural appeal. (12:21–13:44)
  • Quote: “Talarico is clearly very… serious about his faith. And that's one of the reasons he is where he is, because that's translated really well.” — David Axelrod [10:16]

3. Senate Map Analysis

• States to Watch: Alaska, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Nebraska — Dems need wins in at least two states carried by Trump by double digits in 2024. (15:04–17:30; 37:29–39:54)
  • Alaska: Mary Peltola’s chances boosted by ranked choice voting and a weak GOP incumbent.
  • Ohio: Sherrod Brown, described as a true economic populist, is positioned strongly against an unknown GOP appointee.

4. The Maine Senate Race: Platner vs. Susan Collins

• Platner Favored: Seen as the de facto nominee matching the anti-establishment mood. (19:56–24:45, 39:14–41:36)
• Susan Collins Vulnerable: Despite her reputation for bipartisanship, voters are skeptical (“she's only bipartisan when it doesn't count.” — Focus Group via Axelrod [40:47])

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Democratic Messaging & Party Challenges

1. Affordability and Economic Reform

• Key Issue: “Affordability, affordability...” is repeatedly cited but Axelrod argues it’s not enough without deeper economic reform proposals. (41:36–45:12)
• The Obama Warning: Citizens United’s legacy — “We are awash in money and dark money and pernicious influence, and it all conspires against working people.” — David Axelrod [42:00]

2. Appealing Beyond the Base

• Cultural Disconnect: Democrats risk sounding condescending to working-class voters and must avoid “missionary and anthropologist” approaches, instead valuing all kinds of work. (66:46–68:36)
  • Quote: “We approach [working people] like missionaries and anthropologists, and we show up and we say, we’re here to help you become more like us.” — David Axelrod [66:46]

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Candidate Deep Dives: 2028 Democratic Hopefuls

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)

• Motivation Over Ambition: AOC’s viral answer underscores her commitment to policy impact over office-seeking. (47:14, 48:18)
  • Quote: “My ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go… but single payer, healthcare is forever…” — AOC [47:14]
• Future Plans: Axelrod predicts she’s more likely to run for Senate than president, citing her authenticity and the impact she could have in that chamber. (48:18–52:43)

Jon Ossoff

• Strengths: Outstanding speechmaker, youthful, not yet seen as "corrupted." (57:09–59:04)
  • Quote: “He checks a lot of those boxes… hasn’t been there long enough to be… inside the beltway.” — Axelrod [57:47]
• Challenge: Need to demonstrate relatability in settings outside standard political events — “can he pass the podcast test?” (60:38–60:56)

Pete Buttigieg

• Talent: “As bright and thoughtful as anybody… since Barack Obama… very, very talented.” (61:52)
• Relatability & Authenticity: Sometimes “at a remove,” but recent media moments show increased authenticity. (64:22–64:40)
  • Quote: “He was so frustrated and so angered by the stupidity… It was really one of his most authentic moments.” — Dan Pfeiffer [64:46]

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

• Empathy & Electability: Praised for his “outsider” stance and empathetic crisis leadership; can connect with Black churches and working-class communities. (65:57–68:36)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

• Popularity & Coalition-Building: Exceptionally popular, uniquely able to unite new Democratic base with traditional working-class voters. Seen as effective on “making government work.” (68:39–72:01)

Kamala Harris

• Challenges: Concerns about her “Back to the Future” appeal and ability to distance her candidacy from Biden’s legacy. Weakness in real-time engagement (e.g., podcast avoidance, tough interview moments). (74:58–77:57)
  • Quote: “I don’t think America is going to… ultimately go for the ‘Back to the Future’ candidate.” — David Axelrod [74:58]
• Strengths: Early lead among Black voters in polls could matter in primaries but may not sustain.

Other Notables

• Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Rahm Emanuel, and Cory Booker are mentioned as potential contenders, each with varying strengths in resources, base affection, and character-based campaigning. (79:08–81:51)
• Open to Outsiders: Axelrod notes the moment might be right for a true outsider, even referencing potential wildcards like Mark Cuban or Jon Stewart.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Don't let yourself get talked into running for an office you don't want to run for, because it's never going to end well." — David Axelrod [06:29]
• On post-Trump politics: “This is one place where [Trump’s] right. Nobody's ever seen corruption at this scale before.” — Axelrod [04:04]
• “Tariffs and no civil service and so on from the 19th century and then, you know, sort of Rooseveltian structures in the 20th century and we're in the 21st century…” — David Axelrod [43:20]
• Election parallels to 1976: “People wanted to give Washington an angioplasty… Empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility. All the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to be prized in 2028.” — Axelrod [45:13]
• On AOC’s motivation: “I’m not in politics for a job. I’m in politics for goals…” — Axelrod [48:18]
• “If you think that it's such a prize to live in a gilded prison, you're making a mistake.” — Axelrod on running for president [51:21]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:46 – 07:18: Maine primary, anti-establishment mood, Platner vs. Mills
• 12:16 – 32:31: Texas race, Talarico’s appeal, impact of Latino voters and Obama’s support
• 37:29 – 39:54: Senate battle map breakdown (Alaska, Ohio, etc.)
• 41:36 – 45:12: Affordability messaging, structural economic issues
• 47:14 – 53:23: Discussion of AOC’s ambition, likely 2028 path
• 57:09 – 61:00: Jon Ossoff analysis
• 61:09 – 65:54: Pete Buttigieg’s talents, communication style, electoral obstacles
• 65:57 – 68:36: Andy Beshear’s electability and messaging
• 68:39 – 72:01: Josh Shapiro on Democratic vision & challenges
• 74:58 – 77:57: Kamala Harris’s standing and challenges
• 79:08 – 81:51: Other contenders (Newsom, Pritzker, Rahm, Booker, wildcards)

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Episode Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is candid, insightful, and steeped in hard-learned political lessons. Both Pfeiffer and Axelrod combine optimism about an energetic, reform-minded bench with skepticism about establishment inertia and the challenges of authentically connecting with disaffected voters. Listeners come away with a clear sense that 2028 is wide open, but that generational and structural change—along with genuine empathy and reform messaging—will be critical assets in winning back the White House.

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For further details or a transcript, listeners are invited to email [e-mail].

Transcript

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

Welcome to POD Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Joining me today is former senior advisor to President Obama, David Axelrod. You all know Axe. Maybe you've heard him on this pod, listened to either of his shows, Hax on Tap or the Axe Files, or you've likely seen him on cnn. Axe is an all around expert that can speak to anything in Democratic politics. I asked Axe to come on the show because I wanted to talk to someone smart about the midterms, both what the map looks like for the Dems after a series of devastating court rulings and what he thinks of some of the candidates running up and down the ballot. I also wanted to talk to him about messaging, namely how some of the party's leading voices and likely 2028 candidates are talking about the administration and if their theories of the case are actually any good. We shared a great and wide ranging conversation, which we'll get to in a minute. But before we do, if you're a friend of the POD subscriber, which if you aren't, you should be, you can now buy tickets for this year's CrookedCon. There's a special presale just for subscribers, but if you're not a subscriber because you hate pro democracy media and love listening to podcast ads, you can buy Crooked. Com tickets next week starting on May 19th. Either way, it'll be a big fun party right after the midterms November 5th to 7th in Washington, DC. Go to crookedcom.com for more details, including how to become a friend of the POD subscriber. All right, let's get to the show. Here's David Axelrod. What about what did you make of what happened in Maine? Because that seems to be sort of indicative of a shift in the party, a shift in what people are looking for, maybe a sense that the Senate leadership or the establishment is at least in that race and was not in touch with the voters wanted.

[David Axelrod]

There are a lot of factors here. One is that I think we're in an anti establishment moment and that's true in both parties. I think there is a real jaundice about the status quo. You know, I mentioned earlier, you know, 70% of people in polling say the system is rigged, is corrupt and rigged against them. I think there is a sense that Washington, you know, when you'll remember back in the day, Dan, when Barack Obama ran, one of the reasons he won was because his campaign was a full out critique of Washington generally. Not just the Republicans, but Democrats as well, and the sort of red, blue, who's up, who's down, kind of struggle for power that had nothing to do with people's lives, lives or principal concerns. I think we're back there again. And so establishment candidates are at a disadvantage. And Jan Mills is a perfectly good person and has served honorably, was very much the establishment candidate and she had the stamp of Senator Schumer on her to certify that she was the establishment candidate. And she would have been 79 years old when she got sworn in. So part of the other discontent people feel after two octogenarian presidents is with the gerontocracy in Washington, which also speaks to establishment politics. People don't feel like the folks in Washington are in touch with their lives or focused on their lives. And I think Trump has exacerbated it because he ran contending that he was. And then, you know, and now we're into, you know, ballrooms and monuments and, you know, graft on a scale we've never seen before. This is one place where he says nobody's ever seen anything like this before. He's right about this. Nobody's ever seen corruption at this scale before. And so people feel betrayed, those who voted for him or who had some hope for him. And all of this, I think, makes a candidate like Platner in Maine appealing because he's a grassroots guy. He seems to be speaking the language and living the life of people who feel unrepresented.

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[David Axelrod]

I mean it. But it was stunning the degree to which he was able to take that, you know, by storm. I mean, just literally blow the incumbent governor out of the race. You know, I actually wonder a little bit if he would have been better served by her hanging around for a while.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I 100 agree with that. You know, there was no need to start freight. I'm not surprised Platner won. I was very frustrated at the DSCC and Schumer for endorsing Mills to begin with for all the reasons you said, just the idea that we were just going to decide from on high in Washington that our best chance against Susan Collins was a 79 year old establishment politician. And I say that as someone who likes Janet Mills and interviewed her on the show.

[David Axelrod]

She's no Joe Biden. No, she's not.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But it's just the model everyone rejected last time and Platner turned out to be. I certainly thought he would definitely win prior to all the online posts and then thought he navigated that well enough to survive and then knock her out of the water. But he would have been much better off if this had gone to the end. And just to beat her, you delay the general election by another month. Instead, now he's already got negatives against him from proceeds of conscle.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, I don't blame her though. She ran out of money and I'm not sure that she was that eager to hang around. She just to let him claim the trophy, you know, so the thing, one other thing, I think this underscores and you know this from your own career, don't let yourself get talked into running for an office you don't want to run for because it's never going to end well, you're not going to be an effective candidate. You know, I, I mean, Platner, by the time she dropped out, he had done, I think more than 50 town hall meetings in the state. She had done, I think zero. You know, and if you guys have a huge listenership, so if I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will tell me it's

[Dan Pfeiffer]

a number closer to zero than 50, I'll tell you that.

[David Axelrod]

Yes, well, there's no doubt about it. Yes. And you know, he's hungry for this and he's eager for it and he's young and he's going after it. And so getting drafted against your will is a bad way to enter a race. Don't back into a race.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Another race the Democrats are very excited about and very interested in is Texas. Our old boss made his first campaign appearance of the cycle getting some tacos with James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa, who's running for governor. Trump weighed in on the race on his way back from China on Air Force One. Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

[Donald Trump (clip)]

The Democrats have a weird, a weird candidate, six genders, a real hit on Jesus. I mean, this guy is bad news with his mask from relatively recently. And he's a vegan. He's a vegan. All of a sudden, he's not a vegan. He was a vegan. Now all of a sudden he's not. Texas doesn't like vegans. I do believe either one of them will easily win the race. I think that the candidate the Democrats have in Texas is a very flawed, very weak, very. I think he's a pathetic candidate, especially for Texas.

[David Axelrod]

You know that, that Shakespeare thing about thou doth protest too much. But you know what's interesting about the dynamic in the Republican primary is that the, the folks who want John Cornyn, they'll say privately that they think Talarico's too left for Texas. They've got plenty of stuff they can take them out, but they're not saying anything because right now what they're saying is Talarico can win unless we knock Paxton out of the race. If Paxton wins, Talarico can win. Once this primary is over, they're going to open up on him and they're going to along the contours of what Trump is saying. I'm sure he was briefed. A bunch of his guys are working on the Cornyn campaign. But interestingly, he hasn't endorsed Cornyn. I trust that when Talarico went out for tacos that he had beef or chicken.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

She's not a vegan. As Trump.

[Donald Trump (clip)]

Not a vegan.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. Not a vegan.

[David Axelrod]

Taco, not a vegan. Did he say, did I hear that right, that he's bad on Jesus or something? What did he say there?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He said he had a hit on Jesus, which references, I think I'm guessing here, which shows I'm way too online. The great question, I think it was at the same time he said the six genders thing. I don't really know, but this is. There have been some clips from a speech he gave in 2020, I imagine, or right after that that have been going around. I think Trump has obviously seen those and he is doing it. But I'm not sure the idea that James Hillary goes anti Jesus is going to sell.

[David Axelrod]

No, I'm sure that he would love to have that conversation directly with the president. You know, you can't like violate like many of the major Ten Commandments and then start going after someone else over their Christianity. You know, I mean, I mean, Talarico is clearly very, you know, serious about his faith. And that's one of the reasons he is where he is, because that's translated really well. And he, you know, he has preached the gospel of the brotherhood of man, and people who are so tired of all this conflict are responding to him. So we'll see what happens. Look, I think Texas is hard. You and I have gone through campaigns together where we held out hope for states like Missouri at one point, and it always turned out to be fool's gold. And the question is that the case here? One of the wild cards in Texas is that Trump won a solid victory there, but it was with a lot of Hispanic votes, particularly in South Texas. The two biggest losses in terms of support for Trump have been among Hispanics and young people. Hispanic voters, I think they're very sensitive to economic issues. They're a working class constituency in the main. And I think the. In South Texas, I think they were eager for border control. They weren't eager to be racially profile. And I think because of all the stuff that ICE has done combined with the economic stuff, he has completely dealt away the advantages that he gained among Hispanic voters. That puts Texas more in play. It also means that they're probably not going to capture all the seats they thought they were going to capture when they gerrymandered the state.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Talarico is a uniquely talented candidate.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, he's great.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, he's. He's very good. He is. He is. I think if anyone can do it, it's James Talarico. In this year, particularly against Paxton, he, you know, the, the Latino numbers you point out are very notable. Pew has a poll out today which shows that Trump's approval rating among Latino Trump voters is down 30 points since Election Day 2024, which is, you know, that, that's a big chunk of voters. You know, we saw this in the primary. Right? It's a primary, but Talarico got more primary votes than Kamala Harris got votes in. You know, sometimes by magnitude of 2 or 3. In some of these Rio Grande Valley counties, she got two or three times the number of votes Kamala Harris got on election day in 2024. So there's obviously some persuasion. This is not just turnout. There's some persuasion happening here because a lot of these people, these Latinos who voted for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's interesting.

[David Axelrod]

No, I was going to say just on the Hispanic issue, I think one of the reasons Trump is harping on him and Christ is that I think it's very advantageous for Talarico to be able to go into churches across Texas, including Hispanic churches, and as fluent as he is in Scripture. And so I think Trump is trying to chip away at that. What were you going to say?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I was going to say I was going to ask you about the decision to have Obama come to Texas for him. Like, this is a race where he's got to win. Trump won Texas by 13. I think he's got to get a bunch of people who pulled the lever for Trump to vote for him. Do you think bringing Obama was a good move?

[David Axelrod]

You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but my guess is that looking at his numbers nationally, they're not. They're not bad. And there is a. You know, Obama's not campaigning that much for candidates at this juncture. I'm sure he will, but there is a stature thing. It kind of elevates Talarico and the race. And he may just want to, you know, because of the whole Vagan thing, as you say, Trump said me, maybe he just wanted a guy who really appreciated a good beef taco.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. And look, I think also, I imagine I'd have to look at it, but I imagine that Obama's numbers with Latino voters, even Latino voters who voted for Trump, are quite good. And so with, like, Talarico's smart. His campaign's being run by smart people. They're not just doing this because it's good for TikTok views. Like, they obviously have looked at their data that suggests that with their target voters, Obama is a plus. And the other. It's not like there are a bunch of Republicans who are going to stay home because they're mad at Trump. And all of a sudden, Barack Obama shows up for tacos one day in May, and they're like, okay, we're turning

[David Axelrod]

out one last thing on this. I mean, one of the reasons Trump's going after Talarico is because it seems pretty clear that he's decided to stay out of this race. There was a presumption that he was going to endorse John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. He's now been convinced that either of them can win. But the Paxton question is really an open one, because he's a guy who is absolutely freighted with scandal. And while he's very popular with the Republican base, he could be very vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs, around the big cities there. I don't think Obama's going to play badly with those voters. I don't think it's going to hurt Talarico to have him there with those, with those voters. So we'll see. But I will say, I mean, because of the fool's gold. P.S. pTSD. I have, you know, I'm looking, you know, I look at Iowa, for example, and I'm wondering, is Iowa ultimately going to be a better shot than Texas? Is Alaska with Mary Peltola and the ranked choice voting system against a very weak incumbent in Sullivan, does that give you a better chance? Here's the thing. When you, you know, you have to win a couple of states where Trump won by double digits in any case, and you want as many opportunities as possible. So Democrats can turn to Alaska, to Iowa, to Texas even, and I think it's the longest of them. But even Nebraska, where you have an independent candidate supported by Democrats who did very well in a Trump landslide last time against Ricketts, the, the senator, the incumbent senator, former governor. You know, I think that there's a better than 50, 50 chance that Democrats can piece it together, assuming that the wave is what we think the wave could be. And remember, the wave is more important in these Senate races. You know, they may piece districts together to hold down the House margin, but statewide, you know, harder.

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

What about what did you make of what happened in Maine? Because that seems to be sort of indicative of a shift in the party, a shift in what people are looking for. Maybe a sense that the Senate leadership or the establishment is at least in that race and not was not in touch with the voters wanted.

[David Axelrod]

There are a lot of factors here. One is that I think we're in an anti establishment moment and that's true in both parties. I think there is a real jaundice about the status quo. You know, I mentioned earlier, you know, 70% of people in polling say the system is, is corrupt and rigged against them. I think there is a sense that Washington, you know, when you'll remember back in the day, Dan, when Barack Obama ran, one of the reasons he won was because his campaign was a full out critique of Washington generally. Not just the Republicans, but Democrats as well. And the sort of red, blue, who's up, who's down kind of struggle for power that had nothing to do with people's lives. Lives are principal concerns. I think we're back There again. And so establishment candidates are at a disadvantage. And Jan Mills, who's a perfectly good person and has served honorably, was very much the establishment candidate. And she had the stamp of Senator Schumer on her to certify that she was the establishment candidate. And she would have been 79 years old when she got sworn in. So part of the other discontent people feel after two octogenarian presidents is with the gerontocracy in Washington, which also speaks to establishment politics. People don't feel like the folks in Washington are in touch with their lives or focused on their lives. And I think Trump has exacerbated it because he ran contending that he was. And then, you know, and now we're into, you know, ballrooms and monuments and, you know, graft on a scale we've never seen before. This is one place where he says, nobody's ever seen anything like this before. He's right about this. Nobody's ever seen corruption at this scale before. And so people feel betrayed, you know, you know, those who voted for him or who had some hope for him. And all of this, I think, makes a candidate like Platner in Maine, you know, appealing because he's a grassroots guy. He seems to be speaking the language and living the life of people who feel unrepresented. And I mean it. But it was stunning, the degree to which he was able to take that, you know, by storm. I mean, just literally blow the incumbent governor out of the race. You know, I actually wonder a little bit if he would have been better served by her hanging around for a while.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I 100% agree with that. You know, there was no need to start free his for. I'm not surprised. Platner1. I was very frustrated at the DSCC and Schumer for endorsing Mills to begin with for these all the reasons you said, just the idea that we were just going to decide from on high in Washington that our best chance against Susan Collins was a 79 year old establishment politician. And I say that as someone who likes Janet Mills and interviewed her on the show.

[David Axelrod]

Biden? No, she's not.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But it's just, it's the model everyone rejected last time. And Platner turned out to be, you know, I certainly thought he would definitely win prior to all the online posts and then thought he, you know, he navigated that well enough to survive and then knock her out of the water. But he would have been much better off if this had gone to the end just to beat her. You delay the general election by Another month instead. Now he's already got negatives against him from proceeds of counsel.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, I don't blame her, though. She ran out of money, and I'm not sure that she was that eager to hang around just to let him claim the trophy. So, one other thing I think this underscores, and you know this from your own career, don't let yourself get talked into running for an office you don't want to run for, because it's never going to end well. You're not going to be an effective candidate. You know, I mean, Platner, by the time she dropped out, he had done, I think, more than 50 town hall meetings in the state. She had done, I think zero. You know, and if you guys have a huge listenership, so if I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will tell me it's

[Dan Pfeiffer]

a number closer to zero than 50, I'll tell you that.

[David Axelrod]

Yes. Well, there's no doubt about it. Yes. And, you know, he's hungry for this and he's eager for it and he's young and he's going after it. And so getting drafted against your will is a bad way to enter a race. Don't back into a race.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Another race the Democrats are very excited about and very interested in is Texas. Our old boss made his first campaign appearance of the cycle, getting some tacos with James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa, who's running for governor. Trump weighed in on the race on his way back from China on Air Force One. Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

[Donald Trump (clip)]

The Democrats have a weird. A weird candidate, six genders, a real hit on Jesus. I mean, this guy is bad news with his mask from relatively recently. And he's vegan. He's a vegan. All of a sudden, he's not a vegan. He was a vegan. Now all of a sudden he's not. Texas doesn't like vegans. I do believe either one of them will easily win the race. I think that the candidate the Democrats have in Texas is a very flawed, very weak, very. I think he's a pathetic candidate, especially for Texas.

[David Axelrod]

You know, that, that Shakespeare thing about Dove protest too much. But you know what's interesting about the dynamic in the Republican primary is that the, the folks who want John Cornyn, they'll say privately that they think Talarico's too left for Texas. They've got plenty of stuff, they can take them out, but they're not saying anything because right now what they're saying is Talarico can win unless we knock Paxton out of the race. If Paxton wins, Talarico can win. Once this primary is over, they're going to open up on him and they're going to along the contours of what Trump is saying. I'm sure he was briefed. A bunch of his guys are working on the Cornyn campaign, but interestingly, he hasn't endorsed Cornyn. I trust that when Talarico went out for tacos that he had beef or chicken.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

She's not a vegan as Trump. Yes, not a vegan.

[David Axelrod]

Taco, not a vegan. Did he say, did I hear that right, that he's bad on Jesus or something? What did he say there?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He said he had a hit on Jesus, which references I think, think I'm guessing here, which shows I'm way too online. The great question, I think it was at the same time he said the six genders thing. I don't really know, but this is. There have been some clips from a speech he gave in 2020, I imagine, or right after that that have been going around. I think Trump has obviously seen those and he is doing it. But I'm not sure the idea that James Hillary goes anti Jesus is going to sell.

[David Axelrod]

No, I'm sure that he would love to have that conversation directly with the president. You know, you can't like violate like many of the major ten Commandments and then start going after someone else over their Christianity. You know, I mean, I mean, Talarico is clearly very, you know, serious about his faith, and that's one of the reasons he is where he is, because that's translated really well. And he, you know, he has preached the gospel of the brotherhood of man. And people who are so tired of all this conflict are responding to him. So we'll see what happens. Look, I think Texas is hard. You and I have gone through campaigns together where we held out hope for states like Missouri at one point, and it always turned out to be fool's gold. And the question is that the case here? One of the wild cards in Texas is that, you know, Trump won a solid victory there, but it was with a lot of Hispanic votes, particularly in South Texas. The two biggest losses in terms of support for Trump have been among Hispanics and young people. You know, Hispanic voters, I think they're very sensitive to economic issues. They're a working class constituency in the main. And I think the in South Texas, I think they were eager for border control. They weren't eager to be racially profile. And I think because of all the stuff that ICE has done, combined with the economic stuff, he has completely dealt away the advantages that he gained among Hispanic voters. That puts Texas more in play. It also means that they're probably not going to capture all the seats they thought they were going to capture when they gerrymandered the state.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Talarico is a uniquely talented candidate.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, he's great. Yeah, he's.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He's very good. He is. He is. I think if anyone can do it, it's James Talarico. In this year, particularly against Paxton, he. You know, the. The Latino numbers you point out are very notable. Pew has a poll out today which shows that Trump's approval rating among Latino Trump voters is down 30 points since Election Day 2024, which is. You know, that's a big chunk of voters. You know, we saw this in the primary. Right? It's a primary, but Talarico got more primary votes than Kamala Harris got votes in, you know, sometimes by magnitude of 2 or 3, in some of these Rio Grande Valley counties, she got two or three times the number of votes Kamala Harris got on election day in 2024. So there's obviously some persuasion. This is not just turnout. There's some persuasion happening here because a lot of these people, these Latinos who voted for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's interesting.

[David Axelrod]

No, I was going to say, just on the Hispanic issue, I think one of the reasons Trump is harping on him and Christ, is that I think it's very advantageous for Talarico to be able to go into churches across Texas, including Hispanic churches, and as fluent as he is in Scripture. And so I think Trump is trying to chip away at that. What were you going to say?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I was going to say I was going to ask you about the decision to have Obama come to Texas for him. Like, it is a race where he's got to win. You know, Trump won Texas by 13. I think he's got to get a bunch of people who pull the lever for Trump to vote for him. Do you think bringing Obama was a good move?

[David Axelrod]

You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but my guess is that looking at his numbers nationally, they're not. They're not bad. And there is a. You know, Obama's not campaigning that much for candidates at this juncture. I'm sure he will, but there is a stature thing. It kind of elevates Talarico and the race. And he may just want to, you know, because of the whole Vagan thing. As you said, Trump said me, maybe he just wanted a guy who really appreciated a good beef taco.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. And look, I think also, I imagine I'd have to look at what. I imagine that Obama's numbers with Latino voters, even Latino voters who voted for Trump, are quite good. And so with, like, Talarico, smart, his campaign's being run by smart people. They're not just doing this because it's good for TikTok views. Like, they obviously have looked at their data that suggests that with their target voters, Obama is a plus. And the other, it's not like there are a bunch of Republicans who are going to stay home because they're mad at Trump. And all of a sudden, Barack Obama shows up for tacos one day in May and like, okay, we're turning out

[David Axelrod]

one last thing on this. I mean, one of the reasons Trump's going after Talarico is because it seems pretty clear that he's decided to stay out of this race. There was a presumption that he was going to endorse John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. He's now been convinced that either of them can win. But the Paxton question is really an open one because he's a guy who is absolutely freighted with scandal. And while he's very popular with the Republican base, he could be very vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs, around the big cities there. I don't think Obama's going to play badly with those voters. I don't think it's going to hurt Talarico to have him there with those, with those voters. So we'll see. But I will say, I mean, because of the fool's gold. P.S. pTSD. I have, you know, I'm looking, you know, I look at Iowa, for example, and I'm wondering, is Iowa ultimately going to be a better shot than Texas? Is Alaska with Mary Peltola and the ranked choice voting system against a very weak incumbent in Sullivan, does that give you a better chance? Here's the thing. When you, you know, you have to win a couple of states where Trump won by double digits in any case, and you want as many opportunities as possible. So Democrats can turn to Alaska, to Iowa, to Texas even, and I think it's the longest of them. But even Nebraska, where you have an independent candidate supported by Democrats who did very well in a Trump landslide last time against Ricketts, the, the senator, the incumbent senator, former governor, you know, I think that there's a better than 50, 50 chance that Democrats can piece it together. Assuming that the wave is what we think the wave could be. And remember, the wave is more important in these Senate races. You know, they may piece districts together to hold down the House margin to but statewide, you know, harder.

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, the Senate map is, I mean, it's challenging. It's kind of shocking. And it says everything that we'd be sitting here now and you'd say it's a coin flip that we take the Senate or even, maybe even a little bit better than a coin flip. When I look at it, if you're just doing most likely scenarios, I would probably pick Alaska of the Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, probably. I'd pick Alaska just because of the fact that Mary Patol has won in that state. Before there was ranked choice voting. Dan Sullivan is particularly unpopular. And then I think maybe Ohio and

[David Axelrod]

then the other side, listen, I think Ohio. Sherrod Brown came pretty close last time as Trump was carrying the state by double digits. And he's running against a senator who was appointed who's never run on his own statewide and who doesn't have a, you know, a huge image in the state. So he's going to be more associated with Trump just by dint of having no real profile. I mean, he'll try and be, he was DeWine's guy. He'll try and run that way. But he can't run away from Trump. Trump won't allow him. And it's very hard, as you know, to run away from an incumbent president anyway. So, you know, and Sherrod Brown was a economic populist before economic populism was cool. So I think, you know, I'm not sure that I would rate Alaska over Ohio, but I think that the most likely combination if Democrats are to take the Senate would be North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I'm sort of stipulating Maine and North Carolina as must wins because winning three of the other four is hard.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, but he, he Platner is going to you you saw a David French wrote a very tough column in the New York Times this week about him. And I mean, not that people read that, but that was the tenor of what he, you know, they're going to go back at him with more ferocity and but Susan Collins, you know, after all this time and given the nature of the times is, is a, is a really vulnerable candidate. You know, so we'll see. For all the reasons we discussed earlier,

[Dan Pfeiffer]

it's the Susan Collins thing is interesting because she has been like, she is a Republican in a state the Democrats win by nine points. We should beat her. Should have beaten her in 2020. She's very tough to beat. She's been fortunate enough to be able to avoid some of the worst votes this time around because of the Senate margin.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. They cut her loose to do it. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. She didn't have to fight for the big beautiful bill. She got to take a on some of the worst cabinet appointments. But she still is a Republican Democratic state and one who represents status quo. It's going to be a very fascinating race. And the question is, you and I both know the folks working on that race is can Platner with stain what will be a massive amount of scrutiny, some of it from his own side? Because there are people pretty pissed about how this race played out and every possible dollar dumped on his head with some of the nastiest.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. And I mean, I think time will tell about that. Yeah. I heard someone tell me about a focus group in that state, and someone was talking about Susan Collins, and they said she's bipartisan. She's only bipartisan when it doesn't count. And I think that's something that some of a lot of voters there kind of intuit. And, you know, she didn't vote for all of Trump's Supreme Court nominees, but she voted for some.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He's the ones that counted, for sure.

[David Axelrod]

As I pointed out to someone, you know, you can remove a tattoo, but you can't remove a Supreme Court justice. So, you know that. We'll see how this goes. It'll be a fascinating, fascinating race. But I'm assuming that Platner wins the race in the end.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's. That's my hope for sure. You know, both at the House and the Senate, everyone keeps saying the campaign's about affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability. Like, obviously, just saying the word affordability is not actually a message. Although, you know, some Democrats have the habit of reading the stage directions instead of the script. And so they're just saying affordability over again. Is a message around affordability enough? Does it need to be bigger than that? What do you think Democrats should be saying?

[David Axelrod]

Well, I think that we have structural issues in our economy. The affordability issue is hitting people hard, but people have been kind of bobbing in the water and not gaining for a long time, and the polarity in our economy gets worse, and AI is going to turbocharge that, at least in the short run. Maybe in the long run. And I really think, I don't know that it's necessary to win in November. There are discrete things you could propose in order to win in this November. But as I said, it's largely a referendum. Anybody who runs for president better have a much bigger vision about how you reform a system that was broken before. I've always, you know, I think it's a mistake to assume that when you run in 28, that the message could be we're just going to kind of restore everything that Trump knocked down because people weren't that happy with the system before he knocked it down. I mean, they didn't feel they were being well served. And, you know, they felt the system was corrupt. They felt it was rigged against them. They felt that they weren't getting ahead. And that's, you know, it requires big structural kinds of answers that, you know, to not only to put some equity into the system, but also to genuinely try and reform a system that is, you know, since our, you remember when our boss warned people about Citizens United in 2010 and Justice Alito was deeply offended by that and shook his head on the floor. Everything he said has happened. I mean, we are awash in money and dark money and pernicious influence, and it all conspires against working people. So campaign finance reform is really important. We also have to think, I think Democrats, you know, what strikes me, Dan, is that we have this battle going on between the great ideas of the 19th century and the great ideas of the 20th century. Tariffs and no civil service and so on from the 19th century and then, you know, sort of Rooseveltian structures in the 20th century and we're in the 21st century and we ought to be thinking about how do we solve the problems of today using the tools of today and not be wedded to the old ways of doing things, be wedded to creating a country in which people can work hard and get ahead and where we can deal with some of our most pressing problems. But don't assume that the way we approach them in the 20th century is necessarily the way we have to approach them now. I think there's a lot of room for a genuinely reform oriented candidate who has some vision for the future to move this country. I also now you put the quarter and you're getting 10 plays. But I, I expect nothing less.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I love it.

[David Axelrod]

I But, you know, I've been thinking a lot about this election and there no, no two elections are alike. But if you were going to say, well, what is this election most like it goes back to one that you will not remember, but I do, which is the election of 1976. It was the first election I ever voted in when right after Watergate. And the country was stunned by what happened in Watergate, by the corruption of Richard Nixon and by the way, there was a real politicization of the Justice Department, of the CIA, of a lot of these. I mean, it was somewhat analogous to what we're facing today. People wanted to a cleansing, they wanted to give Washington an angioplasty. They wanted a fresh start. And that's how Jimmy Carter emerged in 1976. No one would have known who Jimmy Carter was at this point. And he became the nominee of the party and he won. I don't know who that person is, but I think that two things, qualities of character are going to be very important. Empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility. All the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to be prized in 2028. And the second thing is I think being an outsider who's willing to really challenge orthodoxy in Washington, challenge the institutions on behalf of people, is going to be a candidate who's well received.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

This is a perfect segue to what I want to get to because we're going to have a little fun here. I'm going to play some clips from some 28 potential, 28 contenders and I'll get your take on them both as messengers, what they're saying. But before we get to that, I want to. You sat down with AOC at the Institute of Politics before a live audience. One of her answers went quite viral. I'm going to play it for audience. I'm going to ask you about it.

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

So a couple questions on this. Did that answer was a Rorschach test for people about whether she was going to run for president or not run for president? I wanted to see what do you, how did you take that? Do you think that means she's planning on running for president? Planning running for the Senate doesn't yet know.

[David Axelrod]

First of all, let me say I thought it was a really Powerful answer. You know, I heard Favreau say the other day that if you want to run for president, you better know what you believe. And what she was saying there is, I'm not in politics for a job. I'm in politics for goals that might impact positively on people's lives. The kind of people who I grew up with, the kind of people live all over this country. And I think she really means it, and I think that authenticity is really powerful. That said, if you, you know, she said other things in this answer and elsewhere in this conversation that made me think she really isn't hungering for that job. And if I were her, what I would be thinking is, I want to have an impact, and I'm not ready to sideline myself. The chances of anyone getting elected president, no matter how good they are, are limited. And, you know, she's 36 years old now. She'll be 38. She could walk into that Senate seat in New York. And interestingly, with this crowd of young people, I said, you know, some people would like to see you run for president. And a bunch of them cheered. And I said, and others would like to see you run for Senator Schumer's seat in New York. Louder cheers.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I couldn't tell if they were cheering for her to run for Senate or cheering for the fact that you said Schumer was up.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, no, it was definitely a combination of those two things. You know, she's got a high class problem here. She'd get a lot of votes if she ran for president. But I think the way I interpret what she said is I'm going to go where I think I can continue this fight for those things that I believe in and have the most impact I can have right now. And that led me to conclude that she is more likely headed to the Senate race than to the presidential race. I mean, nothing. She told me nothing. I. But was I reading between the lines? I would be more surprised if she ran for president than if she ran for the Senate. And you and I both know that she would not be one of a hundred if she went to the Senate. She would. When Barack Obama went to the Senate, he was number whatever, 99, 98 in the Senate, but he was not the 98th member of the Senate. People were always interested in what he had to say.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I have seen. I worked for, as you have as well, worked for many politicians who were planning to run for president, who got this question for the years leading up to the actual announcement. And the general approach is to just start Muttering words until the questioner stops paying attention, and they're terrible at it. And this is the. I say this without any hesitation. The best answer I've ever seen of anyone asked that question.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Hands down.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. Well, you know, I mean, it really does help to be motivated by doing something than by being something. I mean, the world of politics divides in these. Into these two cohorts. The people who run because they want to be something, and that's the larger cohort. And then the smaller, more admirable and the more impactful cohort are the people who run for office because they want to do something. And that doesn't mean they don't have personal ambition. But, but you really, you know, honestly, I would say this. Anybody who runs for president, it's too damn hard to do it. I don't mean just to win, but it's such an arduous thing to do. Don't do it unless you know why you're doing it. And, and just, you know, and if you think that it's such a prize to live in a gilded prison, you're making a mistake. You know, no one ever will. No one ever will feel sorry for a President of the United States. But you do change your life forever. And it's not all positive. I mean, you basically give up your, you know, a lot to. To do it. I, you know, I think. I'm not saying that she won't run, and I'm not saying that she won't run someday, but based on what I heard, and if I were betting on it, I would bet that she's going to the one place and not the other.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I had the same impression that she was that he clearly the people who have wanted to be president since they were 17 years old.

[David Axelrod]

She said that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's obvious in the answer, and she's clearly not one of those people.

[David Axelrod]

She said that. She said, I'm not one of these people who've been planning my, my, my, you know, planning my campaign for an office since I was 7, 7 years old. She, she said, you know, you all, we all remember her when she. The night she got elected to, or nominated to the Congress, and she was in her headquarters in a billiards hall in the Bronx with some supporters around her with her hand over her mouth and her eyes wide open, watching these returns come in. She was as surprised as anybody.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Whatever she decides. I think when she first came to Congress, she was clearly one of the best communicators in terms of how you communicate. She understood the modern media environment. Better than almost anyone in Congress, which is not saying a ton. But she's doing Instagram live. She's on social media. She knows how to do it. But I think in the last couple years, she's also become the best, one of the best messengers in the party. Like about what she actually says, it's very powerful and very powerful.

[David Axelrod]

She came there. She's the youngest woman ever elected to the House. I think we've watched her mature as a political leader during those eight years. I think that process is ongoing and I think she knows that too. But she's an impressive person. The reason that she is so good, yes, she knows how to use

[Dan Pfeiffer]

social

[David Axelrod]

media and modern media. But the thing that you can't teach and the thing you can't buy is the ability to communicate authentically and to give people a sense that you're talking honestly with them. That's what great political leaders do. And she has that quality. So that's a hell of a thing to build on.

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

All right, let's. Let's watch some other people. See what you see what you think. I'm gonna start with Jon Ossoff, who may or may not run for president, but he certainly has to win reelection in Georgia. First, let's take a look at one of his recent rally.

[David Axelrod]

How does American politics really work? It's coin operated. Money goes in, favors come out. It's been running on secret money, corporate money, billionaire money. Both sides, Both sides. Citizens United was the worst court decision in modern American history. What do you think? From my hymnbook there.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I know, I know. What do you think about him as a communicator?

[David Axelrod]

You know, he's a great communicator. I haven't seen him as most of the time when I see him, he's behind a podium and, you know, there are other elements of communication and I haven't seen a lot of that, although I just spoke to someone, someone you and I both know who saw him at an event. You may have been at the same event because I think it was out west and said he was really, really good in kind of off the cuff interaction with people and so on. Listen, I, I take him seriously, you know, if you believe what I said earlier about the kind of candidate who will do well, he checks a lot of those boxes and he hasn't been, even though he is a senator, he has not been there long enough to be sort of corrupted in people's minds as a kind of fact As a practitioner of. Of inside the beltway politics, which he's not. So, you know, I mean, it's a quick turnaround. He's young. But I think youth also is an advantage in this election because after two presidents who were in their 80s, I think people are going to be really looking for a more youthful candidate.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, you raise an interesting point, because I think he is the best speech giver that I've seen in a while. He. You know, there's a whole generation of politicians sort of raised on Obama who speak like Obama, and I think he's does the best. Like, you can see it in the tone. You know, he has some of the same pause as the same cadence, but it doesn't look like Obama karaoke, which some apparently.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah, yeah, we've seen that, too. He apparently does a lot of writing. You know, Obama, you know, he had great speechwriters. You work with some of them, but they would tell you that, you know, they. They would give him a product that was in good shape, and then he would buff it up or add things that took it from one level to the next. And he, because of that, he was familiar, he felt organic to the copy he was reading. So I think he has that. But the other thing that people don't appreciate about Obama, and you would, because you travel around with him like, you know those 87 days we spent in Iowa where he was, you know, doing six, eight stops a day, more even in small venues, interacting with people. He was very good at that. Running for president is a decathlon. It's not just one event. So you can be great at pole vaulting, but you still have to throw the javelin. And so the test of campaigns is how do you do you do all the events well enough to. To win. So I don't know that about Ossoff, but he's certainly a promising, promising politician.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I want to see him. You know, I mean, this is a very soft reference way to say, but, like what? Like, can he pass the podcast test? Can he sit and, like, shoot the. Like, I was just watching a clip of Obama.

[David Axelrod]

Well, that's subtle. Pfeiffer.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, I mean, well, he's been on our podcast. He's done fine, but it's like, it's not really, can you come on Positive America hacks on tap? It's. Can you go on Rogan or all the smoke?

[David Axelrod]

Can you.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Can you relate to people on a cultural, personal level? That's not just politics.

[David Axelrod]

The test that Vice President Harris wouldn't take.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, yes. All right. Let's do the next one. Is someone familiar to all of us, Pete Buttigieg.

[Sling TV Advertiser]

There is a powerful American majority for change and for the things we believe in, because right now, you got this administration that's created the illusion that their positions are supported by most Americans, and it's just not true. Most Americans agree that we should be taxing the wealthy more, not giving giant tax cuts to billionaires. Most Americans think it is nuts that we're being told we can't have nice things like rural hospitals and good roads and fully funded public schools at the same time that you got billionaires paying a lower tax rate than the nurses in those hospitals and the workers who work on those roads and the teachers who teach in those schools.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

What do you make of Pete?

[David Axelrod]

Well, look, in many. I've said this before, he is as bright and thoughtful as anybody I've seen since Barack Obama in terms of his ability to sort of think in interesting ways and posit arguments in ways that really are clear and thoughtful. And he's a very, very talented guy. And I really. I like him a lot. I mean, and I think he's underrated in this. You know, I mean, when you hear conversations, he's not. People don't talk about him. But, you know, every time you look at a poll and some of it's name recognition. Yes, but he's well regarded by Democrats. And the things he's articulating out there, kind of, they. They square up with some of the things I'm saying. He's talking about renewal, not restoration. He's talking about reform, you know, like basic, fundamental reforms, you know, now, you know, I don't know whether experience in the Biden administration is advantageous or not. Maybe not.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You know, I guess net neutral at best is my guess.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. Yeah. I wonder. I haven't never had this conversation with him whether, if he had to do it all over again, whether he would have opted for that, he might be in better position than he was. You know, there's always this question about an openly gay man running. Is America ready for that? And look, he. He.

[Donald Trump (clip)]

He.

[David Axelrod]

The one thing that he did not prove in 2020 was that he could win black votes. And that is a really essential task for anybody to get through this process. You know, black voters in the south in particular are really, really important. And so, you know, there are. There are questions, but the talent is. Is. Is undeniable.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I think Pete's incredibly smart. I saw him at an event recently, and he just. He's so good off the Cuff. He's so good. Answering questions.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. And he does the podcast. He passes the podcast.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. All those things. The thing that was always the. I think not like the black voters is like the mass. It's just impossible. You can't win. The math is such. With primaries across the south, the way delegates are allocated, there's no way to do it. That's why. It's why Obama won. It's why Hillary won. Biden won.

[David Axelrod]

Right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But the thing about Pete's communication in 2020 was it always felt to me like a little bit at a remove, like he was so good and so polished that, you know, it just. Like there was this distance between.

[David Axelrod]

I think it's a really. I think that's an important observation. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But I will say, when he was on CNBC a few weeks ago and he was arguing with Joe Kernan.

[David Axelrod]

Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I thought it was some of the best people, like, Pete will go on and he'll have. He'll, like, get every word exactly right on Fox News, and he'll stuff Sean Hannity into a proverbial locker or whatever else. And it's incredible. But he. When he was on the show, Kearney, like, he showed like a real. He was so frustrated and so angered by the stupidity of. And the unfairness of what Cronin was saying. It was really one of his most authentic moments. I thought it was quite. Quite good and I think maybe indicative. His life has changed a lot since 2020. Right. He's got married, he's had kids, he's been through times. And so I think I'll be very interested to see how he's an involved candidate this time around, because if so, he has real potential and he benefits from the fact that New Hampshire is probably the first state, and it's a place where he has a great base of strength.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. And continues to poll. Well. Don't underestimate the value of having run the track before. You know, he know. Or just to use another sports analogy, he knows the lay of the Greens. And running for president is not like running for any other office. So he knows the pressures of it. He knows the cadence of it. He knows. He knows this stuff. That. That is a valuable asset.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

All right, let's look at Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky.

[Andy Beshear]

You've seen how some of this speak has crept into the Democratic Party. And we sound like we're talking down to people. We've got to talk to people and not at them. You know, Kentucky got hit by that opioid epidemic as hard as Anybody, but maybe West Virginia. I mean, we've all lost people we love and care about. I didn't lose one to substance use disorder. I lost them all to addiction. If we want to push back against this president and what he's doing to snap, trying to hold hungry people hostage for political gain, it can't be that there'll be food insecure. It's gotta be that they'll go hungry. We've gotta communicate to people and the values that they know and how they would talk to each other.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Electability is obviously gonna be a huge issue for Democrats as it was in 2020. No one has a better electability story than Yida Bashir. What do you make of them?

[David Axelrod]

Look, I mean, again, going back to the things I told you before, I mean, you have to look at him because he's. He's an outsider. He's also a guy who, by the way, can go into those black churches in a compelling way. And in terms of empathy, most of the time when we've seen him over the last eight years, it's because his state has been beset by some natural disaster or in some cases, a horrific gun incident. And he's really, really good at that. He's great at expressing empathy. I sort of agree with what he said there. The thing I would say is it's not just about the language that we use. It's about, and I've said this a lot of times, my objection to Democrats since the Democratic Party has become a kind of metropolitan, college educated party, is we're still a party of working people, or see us that way, see ourselves that way, but we approach them like missionaries and anthropologists, and we show up and we say, we're here to help you become more like us. And the implied message is that what you do really isn't as important as what we do. Except, Dan, when we have a pandemic and then we're home and we're making our living on our computer and they're out there caring for us, protecting us, making things, shipping things, and doing everything it takes to keep the country going. And then we go out on our balconies and we bang our pots and we say, you're the essential worker until the pandemic's over. And then they sort of become invisible again. So I think it's more. It's about more than just the language. We fundamentally have to think about how we value people in our society.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

All right, last one we'll do is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

[Josh Shapiro]

We have an opportunity to have a real debate within our party about what we stand for, about what our affirmative vision is. It has to be about what we are going to do to make people's lives better. And I think that that is a debate that our party hasn't had for a good long while. And that debate is not only going to help the Democratic Party, I think it's going to be healthy for this country. And what I can tell you for sure is that I want to be a part of that debate, bring the common sense sensibility of what we do in Pennsylvania to that conversation.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Like Bashir Shapiro has won the key state of Pennsylvania. He's likely going to win it again by a very large margin, which will bolster his electability. Case, what do you make of Shapiro?

[David Axelrod]

Look, he's a very talented and very smart and what he said I obviously agree with. He's one of the guys who he can slide into sort of pigeon Obama from time to time and he's taken a lot of criticism for it. He can be a little irascible. And for him I think the, the important thing is to be real. He's so smart and politically savvy that sometimes you feel like he's giving the politically savvy, well manicured answer and you don't know what, you don't see the person behind it. So those would be the concerns that I'd raise. But look, I thought, you know, I thought he should have been the vice presidential candidate and in 2024, probably good for him that he wasn't. But I think highly of him and he's got some good stories to tell. That story about the sort of record pace at which they repaired the fallen bridge in Pennsylvania is a metaphor for something that Democrats need to struggle with is if you're the party of government, how do you assure people that government can work? And he's got some examples to underscore. He also, Dan has he's forged a relationship with working class voters and rural communities in his state. I think he does approach those voters respectfully and has built alliances there that I think is very useful and important and instructive. So again, you've got a good assortment there. I know you only have a short period of time, so you can't put all 1066 aspirants up there, but that's a pretty strong assortment of candidates. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You know, this Shapiro, it's probably not discussed enough how popular he is in Pennsylvania. Being a popular governor of Pennsylvania is not an easy thing to do. This is a state that Donald Trump has won twice and has moved away from Democrats as we, we have moved away from Pennsylvania demographically as a party. He, he basically has a coalition that combines the new version of Democratic Party with these college educated suburbanites outside of and the collar counties around Philadelphia with some of the numbers that Democrats like Obama and Clinton had in the rural parts of the state, in the great expanse between Pennsylvania and between Philly and Pittsburgh. And it's very impressive.

[David Axelrod]

Let me ask you a question, and based on you've got your finger on the pulse of the left and the party, the question that comes up oftentimes from Jews and I'm Jewish is, well, can a Jew get elected given the antipathy toward Israel now And now he's been a very strong critic of Bibi Netanyahu. But how big an issue is that? Do you think that's an insuperable barrier for Democratic candidates? I don't. But you would know better.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I don't believe being Jewish is a barrier that cannot be overcome for a Democratic candidate. I think that any Democratic candidate is going to have to have a vociferous criticism of the Netanyahu government. It's going to have to take very strong positions that would have seemed impossible a few years ago about conditions on aid to Israel, about funding the Golden Dome. I mean, even our, your close friend, my old boss Rahm Emanuel came out suggesting he would not be for that. I think what you, you cannot be seen, you don't want to be seen in a Democratic primary as the pro Netanyahu candidate or the APAC candidate or someone who's associated with the Biden's administration's position or policy on Gaza. So I think he can do it. But it's gonna, those are gonna be tricky waters for him to navigate given some of the ways in which he's approached those issues in his past. Well, let me say change his rhetoric and recent, you know.

[David Axelrod]

Yeah. Well, I mean, you know, one thing you said I quite agree with, the attitudes have shifted in ways we wouldn't have predicted because Bibi has done things we never would have predicted. Perhaps we could have or should have. But the way he prosecuted the war in Gaza. I say this as a Jew. I was horrified and angered by what happened on October 7th. But that doesn't mean that I don't grieve for the children of Gaza and that I'm not repulsed by the way that unfolded. And I don't think you're going to find candidates, Jewish or not, who don't agree with that. One interesting thing is that they have an election in Israel in October. Bibi Netanyahu may be gone by the time this campaign begins in earnest. And you wonder whether that changes anything.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it's a very open question of what the world will look like when these candidates actually have to go get votes in New Hampshire or whatever other states in the early part of the calendar in early 2028. I did not play a clip from Kamala Harris. If you had asked me two or three months ago, I would have put the strong odds against her running. I think in the recent months, she's been out there more. She's been doing more things that suggest that maybe she's seriously thinking about running. What do you make of that?

[David Axelrod]

I don't know what to make of it. I mean, she obviously is making noises as if she's going to run. And, you know, once you run for president, especially when you come as close as she did, especially under the circumstances she did, very hard to look around and say, why not me? But I also don't think America is going to. And Democrats are going to ultimately go for the Back to the Future candidate. You know, there's a lot of. There are a lot of seared memories of 24, and a lot of it don't have to do with her, but with her boss, you know, in the White House. But, you know, it didn't end well. There were a lot of Democrats who were hoping that it would. And part of it did have to do with. With her inability or reluctance to do the things that you have to do at that level. You know, go on those podcasts, be real, be open. And of course, the answer on the View under the withering interrogation of the people on the View, to not be able to answer the question that I think any sort of competent candidate for at any level would know how to answer when asked. Did you. You know, is there anything you would have done differently? She didn't have to say, yes. These things she could have said, I'm grateful for the opportunity he gave me. I'm not going to critique him here. I'm here to tell you I'm not running for the. To be the second term of Joe Biden. I'm running to be the first term of Kamala Harris. And I'll tell you what I'm going to do. I mean, there are a million ways to have answered that question. She just couldn't find any of them. And those are the moments that define campaigns.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. From her perspective. Right. You came very close. She believes as many people in the campaign that given more time, she might have actually won that race or if she had not been thrusted, if she had a chance to actually, if Biden had just not run at all and she'd won a primary, she could have maybe actually won. No way to answer that. Counterfactual. But you look at one way she's leading in all the polls right now, and now you and I know, and everyone knows that oftentimes the person leading in the polls at the beginning is leading by dint of name recognition and nothing else. And that falls pretty quickly like it did for Rudy Giuliani in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2004. But it still is true that you're not winning the Democratic nomination without running up the score with black voters across the South. And you look at that field right now and she's the candidate best position to do that. So she could make an argument to herself about how she could win that nomination. Now the question will be, you know, and this was, I think the experience John Kerry had when he was thinking of running again in 2008 is he was all ready to go, picked up the phone and started calling all his old supporters and they were like, Hillary, I'm with Biden, I'm with Hillary, I'm with Obama, I'm with Edwards. And she might have a similar, you know, I don't know.

[David Axelrod]

Not just probably, you know, from what I understand, not just don't. Not just supporters and donors, but even some key staff. You know, look, I respect her and she got thrust into a really difficult position, but I just don't see this. And I, yeah, I mean, I do think she's the beneficiary of early name recognition on this issue. She may well do really well with African American voters in the South. But I keep thinking back to 2019, when she was a co. Front runner with Joe Biden when she entered the race and she never made it to Iowa and her numbers in those southern states weren't that good. So I don't know. I, it's, it's, you know, there's one. I just don't have enough information to know, but I don't think, I think she's going to receive some tough, tough news from some of the people whose support perhaps she was counting on.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Anyone I didn't mention that you have your eye on.

[David Axelrod]

Actually, it's kind of uncanny because you, you, you listed a bunch of folks who, you know, look, I got two guys from Illinois, right?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I was gonna, I was looking for a good Rom clip to play at the end for you, but I didn't want to.

[David Axelrod]

Look, look, Rom. Rom. You know, I would say that Gavin Newsom won the presidential primary of 2025. I think Rahm is doing pretty well in 2026, at least with opinion elites. I mean, he's, he's, he's throwing out a bunch of ideas. He's really aggressive, you know, and we'll see where that takes him. Governor Pritzker is running for reelection, but it seems pretty clear to me that he's headed in that direction. And he's shown a lot more serious political chops than I would have expected when he first ran for office. He's, and he does have affection among some among the Democratic base. You probably hear it in your own. And he's got, obviously he's got the advantage of resources, so I wouldn't draw him out of the circle. Rumors emanate from Washington that Cory Booker might run again. He didn't do that well in 2020, but he's got talents, he's got gifts. And in an election that may be about sort of character and kind of the, you know, to borrow Biden's phrase, though no one should use it, the soul of America, which honestly is going to be important in 2028. You know, he's a, he's a guy who can speak to that, but I don't know if he can do appreciably better than he did. But I'm also open to someone we haven't, someone coming from somewhere we don't even know. Like I said, this is an election that's grooved for an outsider. And it may be you hear about Mark Cuban, you hear other people mention. So who knows? Who knows? I remember calling jon Stewart in 2019 after Zelensky got elected president of Ukraine, before Zelensky became the wartime leader, the Churchill of our time. And I said to John, John, you know, short Jewish comedians, they're all the rage right now. So, you know, don't count him out. All right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, I think that's a great place to leave it. Jon Stewart for president. David Axelrod, thanks for joining us. Always great to talk.

[David Axelrod]

Always good to see you in Chicago.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Absolutely.

[David Axelrod]

Thanks, Dan.

[Co-host (possibly Jon Favreau or Jon Lovett)]

Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and Farah Safari, with Reed Churlin, Elijah Cohn and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt de Groat, Ben Hefcote, Jordan Kantor, Charlotte Landis, Kirill Pelaviev, David Towles, Mia Kellman, Ryan Young and Naomi Singel. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.