Pod Save America — “Trump Loses the Gerrymander War”

Date: April 24, 2026
Hosts: Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer, Tommy Vietor
Guest: Mark Leibovich (The Atlantic)

Overview

In this episode, the hosts break down a tumultuous week in American politics, covering ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the implications of the redistricting wars for Democrats and Republicans, and the growing crises within the Trump administration. They provide detailed analysis of the Democrats' win in Virginia’s referendum to redraw congressional maps and explore how Republican gerrymandering efforts have ultimately backfired. The show also features a deep-dive interview with The Atlantic's Mark Leibovich about the California governor’s race, and looks ahead to the drama surrounding the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump set to attend for the first time as president.

Key Discussion Points & Political Analysis

1. The Middle East “Forever War” Stalemate

Timestamps: 06:55–17:15

• Ongoing War: Trump claimed victory over Iran 43 days ago, but the U.S. is mired in a Middle East conflict, with a faltering ceasefire and escalating tanker seizures in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Pentagon Report: Classified briefings indicate it could take six months after the war ends to fully reopen the Strait, leaving global energy markets in turmoil.
• Trump’s Posturing: Trump continues to extend ceasefire deadlines without concrete results, demonstrating little actual desire to resume open conflict:
  • Quote: “He’s given, I think it is now five deadlines with threats, and at every single one of them, he’s extended the deadline without getting a single thing he wanted.” — Dan Pfeiffer (09:38)
  • Quote: “Anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it.” — Dan Pfeiffer (13:11)
• Democratic Response: Senate Democrats repeatedly attempt war powers resolutions, but lack Republican support to limit Trump’s authority.
• Political Calculus: The war’s unpopularity, high economic costs, and Trump’s weak bargaining position are causing further political headaches for the administration.

2. Trump Administration Turmoil

Timestamps: 13:19–17:13; 46:13–53:17

• Personnel Chaos: Key dismissals include the Secretary of the Navy and other high-ranking officials amid bureaucratic infighting and ideological purges targeting “WOKE” initiatives.
  • Quote: “The only wars that Pete Hegseth can win are bureaucratic ones.” — Dan Pfeiffer (13:42)
• Scandal Watch: Stories about FBI Director Kash Patel’s alleged misconduct (“J. Edgar Boozer” allegations) and internal DOJ/AG disputes escalate.
  • Quote: “Just an average, everyday American who loves hockey.” — Jon Favreau, mocking Patel’s self-defense (48:21)
• National Security Risks: Discussion of a DHS official’s “sugar daddy” relationships as blackmail vulnerability—hosts joke, but underscore the seriousness of security risks.
  • Quote: “Kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government.” — Jon Favreau (51:47)

3. Democrats’ Big Win in Virginia and Gerrymander Wars

Timestamps: 20:03–40:55

• Virginia Referendum Success: Democrats pass a referendum to redraw the state’s congressional maps, likely netting four more seats and essentially evening the partisan split.
• Republican Fallout: Trump and the GOP decry the result as “rigged”; Republicans express regret for starting the gerrymandering fight.
  • Quote: “Republicans started this ridiculous war. Democrats could have crawled into the fetal position… Gavin Newsom stepped up, Hakeem Jeffries stepped up… Virginia would not have happened without Hakeem Jeffries for sure.” — Dan Pfeiffer (22:56)
  • Quote (on Republican complaints): “Wah, wah, wah.” — Jon Favreau (22:03)
• Consistency and Reform: Hosts highlight Democratic support for anti-gerrymandering measures nationwide, urging Republicans to “be consistent for once on the reforms they support.”
• Voter Trends: High turnout among Asian American and Black voters was pivotal. Independents skewed against the measure, reflecting process fatigue.
• Outcomes: The episode concludes that Democrats “won redistricting” overall and that GOP “buyer’s remorse” is rampant.
  • Quote: “If you try to do this, we will do it too. And you’re not going to get that much, and… the juice won’t be worth the squeeze.” — Dan Pfeiffer (31:10)

4. 2026 Midterm Political Landscape

Timestamps: 33:09–40:55

• Polls: Trump approval ratings hit historic lows (33% in AP, 32% in ARG), and Democrats open up to a 6-point advantage in swing House districts.
• Senate Outlook: Even the Senate—a difficult climb for Democrats—now appears winnable with strong over-performance in special elections.
• Republican Turnout: GOP “can’t nationalize” special elections, but expect more competitiveness as November approaches.
  • Quote: “The political environment looks about as good as we ever possibly could have hoped for Democrats right now.” — Dan Pfeiffer (33:58)

5. Democratic Fundraising Shortfall

Timestamps: 42:03–45:43

• Money Worries: The DNC is briefly in the red; GOP super PACs and dark money groups massively outraise Democrats.
  • Quote (on DNC spin): “Let’s try running it back with no money.” — Dan Pfeiffer (43:48)
• Strategic Donations: Campaigns’ dollars go further than super PACs because of ad rate laws, so emphasis should be on donating directly to candidates.

Interview: Mark Leibovich on the California Governor’s Race and D.C. Culture

Timestamps: 56:51–83:17

1. The “Stupid Circus” of California’s Gubernatorial Race

• Field Breakdown: Lack of star power following Kamala Harris’s and Alex Padilla’s absence leads to a splintered Democratic field and the real possibility of two Republicans advancing to the November runoff.
  • Quote: “There’s not like a giant in the race… just the math of seven Democrats splitting their votes seven ways.” — Mark Leibovich (60:50)
• Influence of Money: Tom Steyer flooding the race with $140 million and taking extreme positions, but faces backlash over perceived ‘buying’ of the nomination.
• Recent Surge: Becerra’s surprise rise in polls and funding after public skepticism and a weak debate performance.
• National Attention Economy: Difficulty for non-famous or non-nationalized figures to break through in mega-state races.

2. A Reluctant Kingmaker — Gavin Newsom’s Role

• Governor’s Reluctance: Newsom hesitant to endorse, reportedly underwhelmed by the field, and waiting for someone to break out (“process of elimination” pick).
  • Quote: “I think he is as underwhelmed as a lot of other Democrats are about this field… I think he was really looking for a reason to have someone like Becerra sort of, like, make his decision for him.” — Mark Leibovich (68:13)

3. The White House Correspondents’ Dinner — Trump Returns

• Back in the Ballroom: Trump to attend for first time as president since 2011.
• A Loaded Affair: Anticipation of how the event will handle the notorious adversary of the press, and the potential for Trump-driven disruption or spectacle.
  • Quote: “It would not surprise me at all if he was just intentionally antagonistic, prepared something not the least bit clever, not the least bit funny, not the least bit gracious.” — Mark Leibovich (71:04)
• Press Complicity: Debate over the awkward tradition of toasting the president—especially one hostile to press freedoms.
  • Quote: “There are other ways to raise money for journalists’ scholarships that don’t involve a toast to a president who disbanded the White House press pool.” — Dan Pfeiffer (75:57)
• Washington’s Changing Culture: Discussion of whether D.C.’s old bipartisan social scene and “one party circuit” have truly faded in the MAGA era.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Trump and Foreign Policy:

  • “Anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it.” — Dan Pfeiffer (13:11)

• On Republican Gerrymandering Complaints:

  • “Wah, wah, wah.” — Jon Favreau (22:03)

• On Democratic Consistency:

  • “I just think that maybe Republicans could be consistent for once on the reforms they support and when they support them.” — Jon Favreau (24:53)

• On Staff Scandals:

  • “Kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government.” — Jon Favreau (51:47)

• On Washington’s Social Scene:

  • “It was actually possible to have bipartisan friendships. It’s hard…MAGA…it’s a whole different dimension and they don’t seem to want to have much to do with mainstream journalists…” — Mark Leibovich (80:56)

Additional Resources

• CrookedCon.com: Updates for the upcoming conference in D.C.
• MessageBoxPro.com: Dan Pfeiffer’s new political consulting product.

Summary Table of Timestamps & Topics

| Timestamp | Topic | Speaker Highlight | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------------| | 06:55–17:13 | Middle East War, U.S. stalemate | Jon, Dan | | 20:03–40:55 | Virginia redistricting & midterm implications | All hosts | | 42:03–45:43 | Dem fundraising crisis | Dan | | 46:13–53:17 | Scandals in Trump admin; security risks | Jon, Dan, Tommy | | 56:51–83:17 | Mark Leibovich interview (CA race, D.C. life) | Mark Leibovich |

Tone & Language

The episode maintains Pod Save America’s signature informal, blunt, and sarcastic tone, with in-jokes, candid swearing, and pointed critiques of both parties—though particular scorn is reserved for GOP hypocrisy and Trump administration dysfunction.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode captures urgent themes: the international fallout of impulsive Trump policies, the potentially epochal shift in redistricting power, and a Democratic Party at an inflection point as it navigates a fractured Republican Party, internal challenges, and an unpredictable media-political circus. Featuring analysis that is sharp, accessible, and darkly comic, the episode gives a comprehensive briefing for political junkies and casual followers alike.