Pod Save America Episode Summary: "Can Biden Stop Trump’s Revenge Tour?"

Release Date: December 6, 2024
Hosts: Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer
Guest: Steve Schale, Democratic Strategist

1. Biden's Consideration of Preemptive Pardons ([01:24] - [14:56])

Overview:
The episode delves into the emerging discussion within the Democratic Party about President Joe Biden issuing preemptive pardons for individuals that former President Donald Trump and his allies have threatened to prosecute. This strategy aims to mitigate potential retaliatory legal actions against Democratic figures.

Key Points:

• Background:
  On Tuesday’s show, hosts Jon Favreau and Tommy Vietor floated the idea of Biden issuing blanket pardons to protect certain Democratic officials from anticipated prosecutions. Politico’s Jonathan Martin reported that the White House is now considering this option, highlighting a "vigorous internal debate" among senior aides, though President Biden has not yet joined the discussions ([02:30] Favreau).

• Pros and Cons Discussion:

  • Pros:
    • Protection Against Retribution: Dan Pfeiffer argues that given Trump’s explicit threats to prosecute political opponents, a preemptive pardon would be a rational defensive move. He emphasizes Trump’s "literal enemies list" as a clear indication of the threat ([05:10] Pfeiffer).
  • Cons:
    • Public Trust Issues: Pardoning individuals without clear evidence of wrongdoing could erode public trust. Jon Favreau notes the risk that voters might perceive the pardons as an admission of guilt, thus undermining the Biden administration's integrity ([06:18] Favreau).
    • Scope and Limitations: Determining who qualifies for pardons is challenging. Pfeiffer highlights the potential for a slippery slope, questioning where to draw the line and who else might be included inadvertently ([07:58] Pfeiffer).
    • Legal Uncertainties: Such broad pardons are unprecedented and lack clear Supreme Court guidance, posing legal risks ([09:55] Favreau).

• Norms and Perceptions:
  Both hosts discuss how preemptive pardons could reinforce negative perceptions of governmental corruption. Favreau argues that in the current political climate, norms around pardoning have been significantly eroded, making such actions more controversial ([14:46] Favreau).

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Pfeiffer ([05:10]):
  "The idea of preemptive pardons is a rational response to what Trump is promising to do with his words and his actions."

• Jon Favreau ([06:18] - [07:02]):
  "It's hard to explain to the median voter that we need these pardons because of someone named Cash Patel. Like, that doesn't make sense."

• Dan Pfeiffer ([11:51] - [12:05]):
  "They can just come in and say, everyone should go commit crimes... it's just crazy."

2. House Democrats' Committee Strategies ([28:13] onward)

Overview:
With Democrats holding a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, the hosts discuss strategic moves to enhance the party's effectiveness, particularly in committee roles. The focus is on replacing older ranking members with younger, more media-savvy Democrats to improve performance during hearings and investigations.

Key Points:

• Committee Leadership Changes:

  • Judiciary Committee: Maryland Congressman Jamie Raskin challenges Jerry Nadler for the ranking member position after Nadler announces his withdrawal. AOC has expressed interest in Raskin’s former spot ([18:13] Favreau).
  • Agriculture and Natural Resources Committees: Similar strategic placements are occurring to invigorate these committees with dynamic leaders.

• Rationale Behind the Shift:

  • Media Savvy: Younger members are seen as more adept at handling the performative aspects of committee hearings, which are increasingly about media presence and public perception.
  • Telegenic Appeal: The move aims to capitalize on members who can deliver compelling performances that resonate on television and social media, thereby attracting broader attention and support.

• Impact on Democratic Strategy:

  • Oversight Committees: The focus is on having members who can effectively conduct investigations and hold Republicans accountable, thereby maintaining pressure and visibility.
  • Potential Candidates: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is highlighted as a prime candidate due to her exceptional communication skills and ability to engage audiences both in-person and online.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Pfeiffer ([18:22] - [18:30]):
  "Democrats have lost touch with younger voters... Trying to put younger faces forward is absolutely essential."

• Jon Favreau ([21:47] - [22:14]):
  "AOC is probably the best communicator in the Democratic Party right now... her content is so compelling that other people are trying to draft off of it for engagement by reposting their videos."

3. Trump Campaign's Targeting of Swing Voters vs. Harris Campaign ([29:35] onward)

Overview:
The discussion turns to the Trump campaign’s innovative strategies for targeting swing voters through streaming services, contrasting it with the Harris campaign’s more traditional regional and zip code-based approach. This segment analyzes the effectiveness and implications of these differing strategies.

Key Points:

• Trump Campaign’s Approach:

  • Streaming Persuadables: The Trump campaign identified 6.3 million individual battleground state voters, termed "streaming persuadables," who heavily use streaming services like Tubi and Roku. They utilized targeted ads on these platforms to maximize reach and efficiency ([29:35] Favreau).
  • Efficiency: According to the Trump campaign, this method allowed them to stretch their advertising dollars further by focusing on persuadable voters rather than entrenched supporters or opponents.

• Harris Campaign’s Approach:

  • Regional Targeting: The Harris campaign opted for geographically-based targeting, focusing on zip codes in battleground states. This broad approach aimed to mobilize existing Democratic voters and appeal to moderates and independents within those regions ([32:16] Pfeiffer).
  • Challenges: Such targeting can be less efficient due to the diverse needs and voting behaviors within each zip code, making it harder to tailor messages effectively.

• Impact of Advertising Strategies:

  • Data Utilization: While the Trump campaign leveraged individualized targeting to engage specific voters, the Harris campaign’s broader approach may have diluted their messaging impact.
  • Future Implications: The shift towards streaming services indicates a changing landscape in political advertising, with potential long-term consequences for Democratic strategies as traditional advantages in paid linear television diminish ([35:55] Pfeiffer).

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Pfeiffer ([29:35] - [32:16]):
  "Trump's campaign did a very good job of communicating with their target voters through a variety of means... It's not as brilliant as maybe they would like us to believe, but it obviously worked."

• Jon Favreau ([35:35] - [36:09]):
  "There's got to be diminishing marginal utility at some point... billions of dollars were spent to reach like 12 million people in the country."

4. Turnout vs. Persuasion in Election Loss ([37:19] onward)

Overview:
Favreau and Pfeiffer tackle the perennial debate on whether Democratic losses are primarily due to lower turnout among their base or persuasion failures among swing voters. They reference Nate Cohn’s analysis from The New York Times to shed light on this issue.

Key Points:

• Nate Cohn’s Analysis:

  • Turnout: Lower Democratic turnout was significant in non-battleground states but not in battleground ones, where turnout was higher.
  • Voter Switching: Biden 2020 voters who stayed home were often moderates who might have been equally likely to support Trump if they had voted.

• Hosts’ Perspectives:

  • Dan Pfeiffer: Argues that the fundamental issue is Trump’s ability to attract and convert Democratic voters, emphasizing that simple narratives about turnout or persuasion miss the complexity of voter behavior.
  • Jon Favreau: Highlights the magnitude of Trump’s voter base expansion, noting that Trump added millions of voters between 2016 and 2024, many of whom were former Democrats.

• Strategic Implications:

  • Acknowledging Reality: Both hosts stress the necessity for Democrats to recognize Trump’s success in swaying Democratic voters and to adjust strategies accordingly.
  • Complexity of Voter Behavior: Voters are influenced by a multitude of factors, and simplistic explanations fail to capture the nuanced reasons behind election outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Pfeiffer ([38:50] - [40:07]):
  "Donald Trump convinced our voters to leave us and join him. Yeah, that is what happened."

• Jon Favreau ([40:34] - [41:10]):
  "Donald Trump added like millions and millions and millions of votes to his total between 2016 and 2024."

5. Interview with Steve Schale: Democratic Collapse in Florida and National Implications ([53:11] onward)

Overview:
Steve Schale, a seasoned Democratic strategist with extensive experience in Florida politics, joins the show to discuss the Democratic Party’s struggles in Florida—a bellwether state that reflected broader national trends. Schale provides insights into the breakdown of Democratic support among Hispanic voters and offers recommendations for revitalizing the party’s strategy both in Florida and nationwide.

Key Points:

• Decline in Hispanic Support in Florida:

  • Historical Context: During the Clinton years, Democrats enjoyed substantial support from Hispanic voters in Florida, often winning by large margins.
  • Slippage Factors: Starting as early as 2018, Hispanic support began to decline, particularly among non-Mexican groups like Cubans and Venezuelans. This was attributed to perceptions of Democratic rhetoric around policing and socialism, which resonated negatively with these communities ([53:58] Schale).

• Broader National Trends:

  • Non-College White Voters: Similar to Florida, there has been a significant loss of support among non-college-educated white voters, exacerbating Democratic challenges.
  • Organizational Weakness: Schale points out that Florida lacks a robust Democratic infrastructure, resulting in minimal sustained party presence outside of high-stakes presidential campaigns ([57:33] Schale).

• Recommendations for Democrats:

  • Investment in Infrastructure: Building a permanent, on-the-ground Democratic infrastructure in key states like Florida is crucial. This involves sustained voter engagement and grassroots organizing beyond presidential elections.
  • Reconnecting with Hispanic Voters: Democrats need to redefine their identity in Hispanic communities by emphasizing core issues like healthcare, education, and economic opportunities over divisive social issues. This requires significant financial investment and consistent, culturally sensitive communication ([60:02] Schale).
  • Diversifying Campaign Leadership: Emphasizing diverse, relatable, and media-savvy leaders can help rejuvenate the party’s appeal among younger and minority voters.

• Strategic Shifts:

  • Early and Broad Engagement: Engaging voters early in the campaign cycle and broadening the scope of outreach beyond traditional demographic categories can help capture persuadable voters.
  • Message Refinement: Moving away from overly simplistic narratives about voter motivation and embracing the complexity of voter identities and concerns.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Schale ([53:58] - [55:38]):
  "The sense in a lot of these communities is that we've gotten away from it... we're now entirely focused on these social issues which often kind of runs contrary to sort of the faith-based sense of who they are as a people."

• Dan Pfeiffer ([57:33] - [57:58]):
  "The Florida Democratic Party at this point literally operates out of a rented third-floor building... they maybe have three or four full-time staffers in a state of 23 million people. It's hard to win from there."

• Steve Schale ([61:17] - [67:25]):
  "We have to redefine who we are as a party with those voters... We have to spend a lot of money communicating earlier... we have to cast a broader net and we have to kind of accept where the median voter is, even if it's not where we want them to be."

Conclusion

The episode "Can Biden Stop Trump’s Revenge Tour?" provides a comprehensive analysis of the Democratic Party’s current challenges and strategic considerations in the face of former President Trump’s persistent influence. From the contentious debate over preemptive pardons to the tactical shifts in committee leadership and campaign strategies, the hosts and guest Steve Schale highlight the complexities of modern American politics. The insights underscore the necessity for Democrats to adapt by investing in robust party infrastructure, redefining their engagement with key voter demographics, and embracing multifaceted strategies to rebuild and expand their coalition.

Overall Insights:

• Strategic Reflexivity: The Democratic Party must continuously evaluate and adapt its strategies to counteract shifting voter behaviors and external threats.
• Infrastructure Investment: Sustained investment in party infrastructure, especially in swing and diverse states like Florida, is critical for future electoral success.
• Voter Engagement: Moving beyond simplistic voter classifications to embrace the nuanced motivations and identities of voters can enhance outreach and persuasion efforts.
• Media Savvy Leadership: Empowering younger, media-savvy leaders can improve the party’s performance in high-stakes committee hearings and public engagements, thereby increasing visibility and influence.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Dan Pfeiffer ([05:10]):
  "The idea of preemptive pardons is a rational response to what Trump is promising to do with his words and his actions."

• Jon Favreau ([06:18]):
  "It's hard to explain to the median voter that we need these pardons because of someone named Cash Patel."

• Dan Pfeiffer ([18:22]):
  "Democrats have lost touch with younger voters... Trying to put younger faces forward is absolutely essential."

• Steve Schale ([53:58]):
  "The sense in a lot of these communities is that we've gotten away from it... we're now entirely focused on these social issues which often kind of runs contrary to sort of the faith-based sense of who they are as a people."

• Jon Favreau ([35:35]):
  "There's got to be diminishing marginal utility at some point... billions of dollars were spent to reach like 12 million people in the country."

This episode offers a deep dive into the multifaceted strategies and challenges facing the Democratic Party as it navigates a polarized and rapidly evolving political landscape. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on the importance of adaptive strategies, robust infrastructure, and nuanced voter engagement to counteract the enduring influence of Trump’s political legacy.