Election Night Cheat Sheet (feat. Steve Kornacki)

Summary

Pod Save America Episode Summary: "Election Night Cheat Sheet (feat. Steve Kornacki)"

Date of Episode: [Insert Air Date]
Hosts: Dan Pfeiffer & Steve Kornacki
Duration: Approximately 50 minutes

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1. Introduction

In this special election night episode of Pod Save America, host Dan Pfeiffer engages in a comprehensive discussion with Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent for NBC News and MSNBC, renowned for his expertise with the "magic wall." The conversation delves into the current state of the 2024 election race, focusing on polling accuracy, key battleground states, and strategic insights as Election Day approaches.

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2. Preparing for Election Night

Dan begins by inquiring about Steve's personal preparations for election night, emphasizing the high-stress nature of the event.

Dan Pfeiffer [02:04]:
“Do you have one big meal early on? Do you stop drinking water at like 3? How much caffeine do you take?”

Steve Kornacki [02:25]:
“It's not too elaborate. The excitement of, you know, everything gets me easily through the night.”
He mentions the importance of maintaining a clear head by taking a walk during the afternoon.

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3. Polling Accuracy and Historical Insights

The discussion transitions to the reliability of current polling data compared to past elections, particularly referencing the polling misses in 2016 and 2020.

Dan Pfeiffer [02:46]:
“Poll misses do not always have to favor Republicans. Yes, we've seen it before.”

Steve Kornacki [04:03]:
“The more confidently somebody's asserting they see something in the polls or the early vote, the more skeptical I become.”
He expresses cautious optimism, noting that the reduction in mail-in ballots compared to 2020 might lead to quicker and more accurate results.

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4. Analysis of Key Battleground States

a. Georgia

Steve outlines his focus areas in Georgia, particularly the Atlanta metro area ("Blue Blob"), which plays a crucial role in statewide results. He highlights the significance of:

• County Demographics: Expansion of Democratic-leaning counties.
• Suburban Enthusiasm: Growing enthusiasm in suburban areas as a positive sign for Democrats.
• Republican Strategies: Efforts by Republicans to regain ground in traditionally conservative counties like Cherokee.

Steve Kornacki [06:59]:
“If the Republicans are trying to arrest that slide, that’s what they’re counting on.”

b. North Carolina

Steve discusses North Carolina's swing counties, focusing on:

• Eastern Rural Counties: Potential Democratic gains in areas with large Black populations.
• Suburban Counties Outside Charlotte and Raleigh: Monitoring whether Republicans are maintaining or regaining support.

Dan Pfeiffer [12:06]:
“Is he making peace with Trump and they're just ready to go?”

c. Florida

The conversation touches on Florida's Latino vote dynamics:

• Osceola County: A majority Puerto Rican county where Trump's gains are notable.
• Vote Counting Efficiency: Florida's rapid reporting system could provide early insights.

Steve Kornacki [16:15]:
“Osceola was actually the more dramatic example of [Trump’s] gains.”

d. Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is identified as a pivotal state, with emphasis on:

• Suburban Counties: Chester, Lackawanna, and others near Philadelphia.
• Latino Belt: Growth in Hispanic populations in cities like Allentown and Reading.
• Scranton County: Potential battleground influenced by local dynamics related to Biden.

Steve Kornacki [21:17]:
“Is Kamala able to keep growing in those collar counties?”

e. Michigan

Steve highlights the complexities in Michigan, particularly:

• Wayne County (Detroit): High-stakes area where small shifts can significantly impact statewide results.
• Macomb County: Historical significance as a bellwether for Trump’s support among working-class white men.

Dan Pfeiffer [25:51]:
“Macomb County is the quintessential home of the Reagan Democrat.”

f. Wisconsin

Wisconsin's battleground status is examined with a focus on:

• Dane County: Democratic stronghold that must compensate for rural losses.
• Ozaukee and Brown Counties: Monitoring whether Trump regains previously lost ground.

Steve Kornacki [28:53]:
“If he gets back to where he was in the Brown and Ozaukee counties, that’s significant.”

g. Arizona

Arizona is noted for its tight race and demographic shifts:

• Maricopa County: Breakdown by congressional districts to assess vulnerabilities.
• Hispanic Voter Influence: Examining Trump's performance among Puerto Rican voters and overall Latino support.

Dan Pfeiffer [31:48]:
“This state feels the worst about among the seven, although many believe it's still very winnable.”

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5. Senate and House Races

Steve provides a brief overview of the Senate and House races:

• Senate Control: Predicted to be decided within the first 24 hours based on major states like Ohio.
• House Races: Expected to remain undecided for weeks due to slow vote counts in states like California and New York.

Steve Kornacki [32:38]:
“Barring something like that, if Ohio is a four or five point win for the Republicans, you'll know that on election night.”

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6. Listener Q&A

In the latter part of the episode, Dan and Caroline Reston, producer of the subscriber show "Polarcoaster," address listener questions focusing on campaign participation and polling concerns.

Q1: Impact of Out-of-State Voter Contact Calier338 asks if phone calls/texts from out-of-state can sway undecided voters.

Dan Pfeiffer [38:00]:
“Everything helps. Do what you can from a blue state or a deeply red state, either one, it definitely helps.”

Q2: Polling Accuracy Amidst Biases Swinging Liberal 901 inquires about the effect of inherent sexism and racial biases on polling accuracy.

Dan Pfeiffer [39:15]:
“There isn't a lot of evidence that inherent or silent sexism is why the polls were wrong in 2020.”
He clarifies that while sexism and racism are significant factors, they don't appear to skew polling data.

Q3: Coping with Election Night Outcomes Anna Delhunt expresses anxiety about potential election loss and seeks advice.

Dan Pfeiffer [41:45]:
“Take that energy and focus it on trying to win this race because it is so close. It is very winnable.”

Q4: Productive Election Day Activities 96 asks about ways to stay productive on Election Day beyond watching the news.

Dan Pfeiffer [42:59]:
“You can absolutely volunteer on election Day. From phone banking to driving people to the polls, there's so much you can do.”

Q5: Celebrity Endorsements Influence Super Skink wonders if late celebrity endorsements, like LeBron James endorsing Kamala Harris, can sway voters.

Dan Pfeiffer [45:35]:
“The reflected glory of the celebrities brings more attention to the candidate and their positions.”
He acknowledges that while endorsements remind people to vote, they might not directly change voter preferences.

Q6: Final Predictions Toughie asks who will win the election.

Dan Pfeiffer [47:46]:
“I will not answer this question. It is a cardinal rule of Pod Save America that after 2016, we don't make predictions.”
He outlines three reasons for optimism regarding Kamala Harris:

1. Democratic Enthusiasm: Comparable to Obama's 2000 campaign.
2. Economic Credibility: Improvement in perceptions regarding economic leadership.
3. Demographic Shifts: Positive changes in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

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7. Conclusion

Dan Pfeiffer wraps up the episode by thanking Steve Kornacki and addressing listeners as the team prepares for the upcoming election. Emphasis is placed on the critical nature of the final days leading up to Election Day and the importance of active participation in the democratic process.

Dan Pfeiffer [49:51]:
“This is an incredibly close race. You can make a reasonable, rational, credible argument that either candidate is favored.”
He reiterates the factors contributing to Kamala Harris's potential success while maintaining neutrality on the election outcome.

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Notable Quotes

• Steve Kornacki [04:03]:
  “I don't think it's going to change dramatically. I don't know if I'd even trust it if a bunch of polls suddenly showed some kind of movement.”

• Dan Pfeiffer [31:48]:
  “This state feels the worst about among the seven, although many believe it's still very winnable.”

• Dan Pfeiffer [39:15]:
  “There isn't a lot of evidence that inherent or silent sexism is why the polls were wrong in 2020.”

• Dan Pfeiffer [47:46]:
  “I will not answer this question. It is a cardinal rule of Pod Save America that after 2016, we don't make predictions.”

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Key Takeaways

• Polling Trends: Current polls suggest an exceptionally close race, with heightened skepticism about sudden shifts in polling data.

• Battleground States Focus: Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona are critical, each with unique demographic and historical voting patterns influencing the outcome.

• Demographic Shifts: Changes in voter demographics, particularly among Hispanic and suburban voters, play a crucial role in potential election outcomes.

• Voter Engagement: Active participation through volunteering, phone banking, and other means remains vital as Election Day approaches.

• Celebrity Influence: While not directly altering voter preferences, celebrity endorsements can increase visibility and voter turnout.

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This detailed summary encapsulates the essential discussions from the "Election Night Cheat Sheet" episode of Pod Save America, providing listeners with a clear and comprehensive overview of the conversation for those who haven't tuned in.

Transcript

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

Good Burger welcome to another special episode of Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. This is the final bonus pod I'll be hosting on Sundays in the lead up to the election. If you like these episodes, I highly recommend you sign up to get my subscriber show Polarcoaster by subscribing to friends of the [e-mail] friends or through the Apple podcast feed. It's where we really dig deep into polling and political trends. It's a great way to support crooked media and we have a 25% off discount for annual subscriptions right now. In today's episode, we're going to dig deep into the state of the race as we approach the final days of the election. And I can think of no better person to join me in this conversation than Steve Kornacki. He's national political correspondent for NBC News and msnbc. And the man behind the magic wall. Steve, welcome to Pod Save America.

[Steve Kornacki]

Thanks. Great to be here.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So before we get into the nuts and bolts of the race and what we're going to see in this election, I do have to ask you, what is your plan for how to get ready for election night? Do you have one big meal early on? Do you stop drinking water at like 3? How much caffeine do you take? I mean, you are on call for days potentially. How do you get ready?

[Steve Kornacki]

It's not too elaborate. The excitement of, you know, everything gets me easily through the night. I don't have to do, you know, anything artificial for that. I guess the big thing is I always, I carve out like two hours in the middle of the afternoon to go take A walk, just clear my head. You know, you get all those anecdotal turnout reports, they're useless. So, you know, just ignore it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I know you guys have game planned a whole bunch of different scenarios about how this election could go. We didn't learn for several days in 2020. Have you guys thought about, based on changes in who's voting, how votes are being counted, when we're likely to get a result here or what some of the different scenarios may be?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, I mean, I'm sort of cautiously optimistic it's going to be quicker, maybe significantly quicker. The main difference is just the volume of vote by mail. This time around, it's down dramatically. That's what really clogged it up in 2020 in some of these states. Plus some have changed their procedures to make it even better. Others that haven't even changed the procedures. At least they have more experience with it now. A couple elections under their belt. So, yeah, I remind people you go back one election further. 2016, it was a close election. It was a couple states by about 50,000 votes, 75,000 votes. We had the verdict by 1:30 in the morning.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I would say that is a verdict. I remember quite well when that came down. As you can imagine, all of the polling suggests that this is one of the closest races in history. We're basically at a one point Harris lead in most of the national polling averages. Battleground states are at least, if you look at the New York Times average, all under two points, many of them tied or under one point. How are you sort of seeing the race along those lines?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, I'm sort of at the point where I don't think it's going to change dramatically. I don't know if I'd even trust it if a bunch of polls suddenly showed some kind of movement. And my overall thing here the last two months really has been I just don't trust confidence, period. The more confidently somebody's asserting they see something in the polls or the early vote, the more skeptical I become.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I think that's fair, particularly when it comes to the early vote. 2020, 2016, marked in many people's minds by a pretty significant polling miss. Mostly on the state side in 2016, everywhere in 2020. Do you have greater confidence that the polls are accurate this time? If so, why?

[Steve Kornacki]

Well, yeah, it's one of those cautiously optimistic things again, but there's an argument that the fact that they're so close right now, across the board, Trump is running at a higher number than he polled at in the past and the race is closer than it ever was in the polling in 16. That the sign that the Trump voters who were missed in 1620 are now being accounted for, whether that's because of methodological changes from pollsters. Did it self correct? Was the big miss in 2020 more the product of just the weirdness of COVID the pandemic did that somehow. So I mean that's one way to look at it. But yeah, I mean when it's happened two elections in a row, I don't discount the possibility that again, the Trump votes undercounted, maybe not by as much, but even by a little would make a huge difference. And poll misses do not always have to favor Republicans. Yes, we've seen it before. The other. And that I'm very alert to that possibility too.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

The other thing I try to tell people is if the polling has Harris up one in Michigan and Trump wins by two, that's not actually a polling error. That is within the range of expected outcomes. There's a chance that this could end up where we have a big polling miss one way or the other. But it's more the more likely scenario in a race this close. If you look at 16 and 20 as benchmarks, is the outcome is likely within the margin of error of the polling average, which is not an error, it just is the reality of it's like 2022.

[Steve Kornacki]

Right, right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Some states they underpredicted Democrats, some states were right on. But historically accurate polls, right?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah. I mean like the big miss in 20, for instance, was Wisconsin. It was the worst of any swing state. The Average was about 8 1/2 for Biden going into election day 610 of 1 point was the final result. There was a famous ABC poll, October 2020 in Wisconsin that had Biden up 17 points. I mean that's the scale of what we were talking about four years ago.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. So it's election night. Right. The first battleground state where the polls go is going to be Georgia. What are you going to be looking at in Georgia? And I think one of the things I just want to tell voters is, you know, everyone has their model. Right. That's all these polling is a model of what people think the electorate is going to look like. Republican turnout, Democratic turnout by demographic group, by age. And sometimes we learn early on that that model is off. Are there specific counties in Georgia, specific things you'll be looking for when those polls come in then North Carolina obviously comes 30 minutes later.

[Steve Kornacki]

Right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But just what are we sort of your warning. Warning signs.

[Steve Kornacki]

So I'M going to look in a couple places in Georgia. First is what I call the Blue Blob, and it's the Atlanta metro area. It's now nine counties in that core that Biden won by cumulatively like 37 points in 2020, accounts for more than 40% of the vote statewide. It's just getting bluer and bluer every election. My question there is, I guess one of them is, is the blob expanding? There's one county in that area that's been moving pretty dramatically towards the Democrats, but just missed Fayette county the last time around. If the Democrats are flipping that this time around and expanding that blob, I think that's a sign because that's talking about enthusiasm in the suburbs. One of the things Democrats are hoping for here, that would be a very good sign for them of that. Then I look further north, the fringes of the Atlanta metro. Two giant counties there, Cherokee county and Forsyth County. Cherokee, in fact, I think used to be one of the top plurality producing counties for Republicans anywhere in the country. Country. It's just massive and has stayed heavily Republican. But you still see it there. Whereas Romney was winning that county by like 50 points back in 2012. In 2020 it was just under 40 for Trump. So I want to see the Trump people believe they've arrested that slide. They think it's a bunch of things. It's four years of Biden has changed attitudes there a bit. They think Trump has mended fences with Brian Kemp, who did very well in a place like Cherokee County. Is that true? Has Trump arrested the slide there? Has he clawed stuff back? That's what they're counting on. There's a whole swath of counties, many of them rural, many of them with significant black populations, where Democrats are hoping for higher turnout, something they saw in a lot of cases with Raphael Warnock when he won his first runoff victory back at the start of 2021. So I want to see what's happening in those places, too.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

We tend to get the vote pretty late out of Atlanta. Is that right?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, Fulton, DeKalb. And that's a wild card. Everywhere this year is just the sequence and how this is gonna happen. So I think what we're gonna get in Georgia, though early, is more of the pre election day vote. Then we'll start getting the election day. We saw huge, huge disparities obviously in 2020, where the election day vote was so Republican friendly. The only I say from these early voting stats that we're seeing is clearly there's more interest from Republicans in voting early this time, does that just mean we're going to look up and say, wow, there's a lot less Republicans voting on Election Day than last time?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You know, I mean, that is such the big question here because, you know, obviously I find most of the early voting prognostication to be kind of like sorcery race. You can read into whatever you want, right? You have all these people talking about the gender gap. And the gender gap is huge in the early voting across the board. Now, if you dig deep, it's also the same gender gap as 2020. Is that still good because you have more Republicans voting, therefore more men? Hard to say. The one place where I do take it incredibly seriously is John Raulston in Nevada, who has been quite dark on Democratic prospects. Are you seeing anything in Nevada?

[Steve Kornacki]

I mean, I see what you're seeing from him because I have the same attitude. You make the exception for him because it's so established. Go back decades doing this in the state and he has a great track record. But again, it's, I think what hangs in my head here a little bit in Nevada and everywhere is just we're so tied into the patterns that we saw in 2020. And I just think when you talk about early vote and these different vote method, I think there's volatility there in how, you know, how voters are going to make these choices. And I think the fact of Trump and the Republicans deciding this time, they want to embrace it. So much coverage, you know, even in conservative media the last four years about, wow, this might have been a blown opportunity. And so I just, you know, we may end up looking back at this and saying, wow, everything was inverted this time in these patterns. And so that's kind of in my head too.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You would assume, I mean, this is pure anecdotal assumption that the Republican voters most likely to switch to male voting would be stalwart Republican Election Day voters. But you guys actually have an analysis from your decision desk folks today about Arizona, saying that you're a whole bunch of newly registered men turning out in Arizona.

[Steve Kornacki]

And also the best, the sort of John Ralston of Arizona was also looking at it and looking at the turnout rates was interesting to me, was if you look in Maricopa, which is pretty much the ballgame out there, or close to it, it is the first Congressional District and that's one of the most competitive. That's Dave Schweickert, the Republican who barely survived in 22. This is one of the races on the side of The House. This is the highest income area in Maricopa county, highest college degree concentration. This is a place where Democrats think, you know, just demographically, based on some of those factors, they can make more progress this time. And the turnout levels there? Significantly higher than elsewhere in Maricopa county, like the core city of Phoenix or Tempe or something like that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And what does that tell you, if anything?

[Steve Kornacki]

Well, then that's the question. How do you read it? Are those the types of Republican voters who are kind of turned off by Trump because demographically, that's where Trump has struggled among traditional Republicans? Or have they made peace with Trump and they're just, you know, they're ready to go? Yeah, I'm like you. That's why there's that sorcery we're talking about here.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Let's move around to North Carolina. It's the next state where the polls will close. Anything you're looking for specifically in North Carolina, and do you guys have any sense of whether the hurricane is going to have impact on vote counting in that state?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, I don't get the sense on the vote counting side. I guess there's been some reports that the little bit less participation in the western North Carolina area. We were running the numbers, though, the other day, and I didn't see a very big difference there. What I'm looking for mainly is a couple of things. Similar to Georgia, eastern North Carolina, there's a swath of large black population, generally rural counties. Obama did very well there when he won a state in 08. That's the last time a Democrat carried it. Can Democrats recapture that a bit? One thing they got to worry about there is the black populations have been declining in a lot of these counties, too. So it's not just a turnout question in some places. But I want to see if the Democrats are making meaningful gains there. And then I want to look at there's counties outside of the sort of big major metro. It's just outside of in bedroom community counties. Down by Charlotte, you got Union county. And similar to what I was describing with Cherokee and Georgia, big bedroom community suburbs. You know, a lot of banking industry kind of affiliations there. Went for Trump by 30 points in 2016, came down to 24 in 2020. Is he arresting the slide? Is he clawing it back? Similar just outside Wake county, you know, where Raleigh is, you know, the other big population, Hub Johnston county just outside of there. Similar story. I want to look at that. Nash county is right around there. That's when a lot of people are talking about so in all these states too, there's the question of you can't pinpoint a single county, but you've just got this collection of, in North Carolina, dozens of counties, rural, small population counties where Trump has expanded the Republican support by leaps and bounds even from where it was under Romney 12 years ago. Take those collectively. Is he continuing that trend or not?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Right. And you are running into diminishing returns with some of that. Right. In most of these states, the population that has fueled that surge, white, non college educated voters, has gone down as a percentage of the electorate over the last four years and certainly over time. North Carolina is the one exception to that, where I think it has stayed flat. When the results come in, we're testing a bunch of propositions that have been manifest in the polling. The three big ones. One is, is Trump making gains with black voters, particularly black men, working class black men? We will get a sense of that in Georgia and North Carolina, depending if he is improving on his margins in those counties you talked about, particularly those rural black counties in both those states. Then the second one is, is he really making gains with Latinos? Right. Have we snapped back to where we were? Is he getting across that, what, that sort of magical 40% number? Do you think you can get any sense of that in those early states, or do we have to wait till we go west to know that?

[Steve Kornacki]

I'm gonna cautiously look at Florida, which closes at 7 and reports very efficiently. Not for Miami Dade, because Miami Dade Trump made huge gains there. Demographically, though, lots of Cuban Americans. It's different than a lot of other heavily Latino areas. Where I'm gonna look in Florida in particular is Osceola county, which is just south of Orlando. It's one of three majority Hispanic counties in the state and it's the one with the highest concentration of Puerto Rican voters. It's about one third Puerto Rican as a whole. The county, it's a big sized county. Obviously you wanna see there if there's any evidence that the events so the last week have had any impact. But it's also notable because this showed that Trump's gains with Hispanic voters in 2020, Miami Dade got all the attention, but again, because of the Cuban American factor, I think Osceola was actually the more dramatic example of it. Trump gained 11 points, he lost it by 25. Osceola the first time he ran, got it all the way down to 14 the next time out. It's one of his best improvements in any county in Florida. And that's exactly the kind of place that his campaign has felt they're going to make more gains in big gains in the kind of place where like, you know, the way they've been talking, a Trump victory in that county, you know, would be something in the range of what they're thinking. So I want to see if that's happening there. I know Florida, it's, you can't extrapolate as much as you used to, but I think that one might be more meaningful than Miami Dade.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it was, and I probably left off my list because it's A, not competitive and B, a lot of emotional PTSD as a Democrat in Florida over the last few cycles. But it is also, I mean, that is when every Democrat knew we were in big trouble. In six was when Florida dumped in the mail and early vote. And all of a sudden it looked very different than we thought. In part, that election was less about Latino gains, but then similar in 20, big alarm. And we're going to get that vote pretty fast, right? In Florida, at least, it is state.

[Steve Kornacki]

Law within 30 minutes of poll close, they have to report out all the mail and early vote, typically that's like 65, 70% of the vote in a county. Everything but the sort of small panhandle part of the state that's 90% of the state is going to do that. So by 7:30 you've got just about every county has lighted up one color or the other and then they just add the same day to it. And that can be very quick. You can have full counties by 8 o'clock.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I wish Florida was competitive for Democrats. It would make our electoral math easier. I will appreciate not being in the situation where you are hanging on waiting for the votes for Miami Dade and Broward to come in and possibly make up that gap. Because it always takes longer than you think and it doesn't go as far as you want it to. At least have that emotional trauma removed. Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back.

[Caroline Reston]

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[Gabe]

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[Caroline Reston]

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[Gabe]

Thank you.

[Caroline Reston]

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

All right, let's switch to Pennsylvania, viewed by many as the state that will decide this election. Because if you don't win it, it comes very hard to piece together the replacement electoral votes to get to 270, particularly for Kamala Harris. What are you thinking in Pennsylvania now.

[Steve Kornacki]

You'Re talking about a more significant Latino voting population than like in North Carolina. So you're starting to really see it here. You look in Philadelphia. First of all, Democrats obviously depend on massive pluralities and turnout from Philadelphia. So you want to see if you can get a sense of the turnout early. But also you saw in 2020 in Philadelphia, progress for Trump in working class, majority Hispanic areas. Not huge, but he did actually, while losing ground in Pennsylvania as a whole, he actually improved in the city of Philadelphia, which is Philadelphia County. So you want to see that. And then you want to see again for the Latino vote in Pennsylvania. Another area that Trump folks have targeted for growth is, you can call it the Route 222 corridor. Some people have called it the Latino belt. But you've got this sort of like network of small, mid sized cities with large and really fast growing Hispanic populations. You know, Allentown, Reading, Hazleton. Hazleton is, it's a small city, but, you know, turn of the century it was 5% Latino. Now it's almost 70% Latino. These are places where if you looked inside the cities, Trump made gains of 10, 15 points net points in 2020, even as he lost the state. So this is where his campaign, you know, the way they've been talking about this, if that's happening, this is where you're gonna see it dramatically. So look there, you know, you wanna look at the collar counties, this is where the Democrats Chester county is in the Trump era. There's no county in Pennsylvania that has moved more in the Democrats direction than Chester. High college educated concentration right outside Philadelphia is like his hair is cracking 60% there. They wanna keep growing there. And then the one bucks is a big swing county there. And the other one I really wanna look at is Lackawanna Scranton. It's interesting because it's very classic for the Midwest region, whatever you wanna call it. I know nobody up there would say they're in the Midwest, but Obama won it by 28 in 2012, came all the way down to three for Hillary Clinton. In 2016, Biden comes along and he brought it back up to nine. And it's interesting because Scranton is where he's from originally. Was there a local effect for Biden that produced that or was there something else? Is Trump able to bring that back down and maybe even flip that county? I'm paying close attention there.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

We had Bob Casey at a Paz America show in Philly a couple weeks ago. And I'm sure you know this Bob Casey is a very big map guy. He calls himself the Steve Kornacki of the Senate. And we went through the map and Lackawanna county was the county where he was most focused. And obviously it's where he's from. So it means a lot to him. And for his race, he's got to get big numbers out of there. But he also pointed that out as a place where if that snaps back to 16, that's a hard place for Biden to find those votes. Pennsylvania, to me is the real test about the suburbs. Is she beating Biden's numbers in the suburbs? Which if you believe there is some bleed anywhere. Right. If it's a little bleed with black men, with Latino voters, with young voters, with all the different possible groups, white, non college educated voters, even if she loses a point or two with any of those groups, she's got to make it up somewhere. The most likely place, I believe, and I think the polling shows to make it up is in these suburbs. Is she juicing those numbers? Is she getting some of these Haley voters, these Republican leaning independents? And I think you will see some of that in Georgia and North Carolina. But Pennsylvania is the one where I think it really comes home because it's so critical to her. Right?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah. Of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania, there are 10 that have actually gotten more Democratic since 2012. And obviously as a whole, Democrats are doing worse in Pennsylvania than they were when Obama ran in 12. But there's 10 counties where they've actually gotten even better than they did under Obama. And Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, these collar counties right outside what you're talking about, these big suburban counties right outside Philly, a little bit of a sleeper one, south central Pennsylvania is Cumberland county, where Carlisle is. There's actually been Democratic growth in that area. It has a lot of these demographic characteristics. And you go out Allegheny county, you think Pittsburgh, it's 1.2 million people. There's a lot of inner suburbs within Allegheny county that again, fit this demographic profile that's been so rich for Democrats. So, yeah, I mean, a place like Chester county, an easy benchmark to start with. Is she over 60% because Biden was able to get it up to the high 50s. Could she crack 60% there? That starts to get into, I think, an encouraging territory for her.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Let's move to Michigan. I think Michigan is perhaps one of the more confusing states to look at because of the kind of hard to gauge impact of the uncommitted movement, protest over Gaza, the very large Arab American population. What are you looking at in Michigan?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, Wayne county is going to cover a lot of the uncertainty you're talking about. That's where Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck, you have cities with large Muslim American, large Arab American populations. The way they do the vote counting in Michigan, they do it at the municipal level. So I think we should be able to have access to some of those individual results. Hopefully early they could start answering that. Also in Wayne, obviously, that's where Detroit is. Detroit, same story really, as Philadelphia as a city. Trump actually made a little bit of progress there in 2020. That's a place. Where is Trump gaining, as you're saying, small but meaningful support with black voters, particularly black men. And what's the turnout level in Detroit? What's the turnout level among black voters in Detroit? Because you look at it, Biden was able to win Wayne County 68 to 30 last time around. When you start playing with the numbers, if it just went to 64, 34 in terms of raw votes, because Wayne county, it's 25% of the state, just that one county. So that's going to move massively raw votes. And then the other quick test I have in that region, because you got Wayne, you got Washtenaw, where University of Michigan is, and then you got the two big suburban counties, Oakland, higher income, high college plus suburb, McComb, blue collar auto industry suburbs. And measure McComb against Oakland. This is one of the tests I'm gonna do in 16 when Trump won Michigan by a sliver, his support in Macomb, he won it by 12, almost completely canceled out Hillary's support in Oakland, which she won by eight. Basically canceled. These are out in 20. When Biden won, Biden won Oakland by 14 and Trump only won McComb by eight. And there was actually a net difference of 70,000 votes in the Democrats favor and they won the state by 154,000. So almost half just came from that disparity. So I mean, I want to know, are we looking at a tiny, insignificant disparity between them or is it netting out in the Democrats favor like it did four years ago?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And for our listeners who may not know, Macomb county is the quintessential home of the Reagan Democrat. This were the famous study that Stan Greenberg, Clinton's pollster, did to look at why Democrats were losing working class white men. This is Macomb county and once again finding a similar level of significance because for a long time that was a county everyone was looking at to see if we were holding onto the New Deal coalition or not. So it's welcome back to the news. Macomb County. All right, let's move to Wisconsin. Wisconsin is interesting because on paper it should be the most difficult of the blue wall states for Democrats. It's the whitest. It's the most rural. It's been the closest. Not that any of them had large margins recently, but Wisconsin was about a half a percentage point. Yet for a long time it's the one Democrats felt best about. I think that's shifted a little bit in the last few weeks here as the polls have narrowed there and the Tammy Baldwin's race has narrowed as well. Wisconsin. I'm gonna look at two things. I'm curious what you're looking at. One is the. Wow. Counties around Milwaukee and then also the massive growth in Dane county in population. And whether we. Because it is one of the most Democratic counties in the country. And so at least among the battleground states. And can you get even more vote out there to make up for any losses in the rural areas? What are you looking at?

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, no, I mean, exactly. It's geographically Wisconsin, just if you paint the map is very red right now. The Democratic support, as we see in so many places, increasingly geographically concentrated, they just keep squeezing more and more out of Dane county every election, I think every election this century, the Democratic plurality in Dane has grown. There's a test right there because they increasingly need it to compensate for these losses they've taken everywhere else in the state Milwaukee. Again, very similar to what we talked about with Detroit and Philadelphia. Trump showed a little bit of signs of inroads there in 2020. Are we seeing more of that or not? Of the three wow counties around Milwaukee, Ozaki is the one that I'm most interested in because it's moved the most dramatically away from the Republicans. It was 5543 for Trump in 2020. That was the best performance for a Democrat there Since LBJ in 64. It has the second highest concentration of white college educated voters of anywhere in Wisconsin, second to Dane Harris is threatening to win a place like Ozaukee County. And then we say wow. I like to say Bow wow because you've got Brown out of Gamey in Winnebago Counties, Fox River Valley, and they all tell the exact same story. This is Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh, and they tell the exact same story. Trump got up to about a 1012 point win in 2016 in these counties and then he gave back some of those gains, not all, but some. And he lost them by mid high single digits. And so is he back at 16 levels in the Bao counties or is he still back in the single digits? Because he needs to get back to where he was there.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So let's end this little tour of the map in Arizona, which is a state that I think Democrats genuinely feel the worst about among the seven, although many believe it's still very winnable. But it's the one in the polling average where Trump has the largest lead. Once again, that large lead is two. So it's not gigantic.

[Steve Kornacki]

Yeah, I mean it's in Maricopa county. It's a little bit more than 60% is going to come out of there. And then south of that you got Pima, where Tucson is. Another 15% is going to come out of there. So more than three out of four votes coming from those, those two counties. Unfortunately, with Maricopa, we can break it down by congressional district. So I was mentioning earlier the first congressional district that Dave Schweikert seat, I think that's we want to key in on that one kind of right away. The other question though in Arizona too is it's the Hispanic vote because again by exit polling in 2020, Biden carried the Hispanic vote in Arizona by 24 points, 61 to 37. I pay attention to the polls that come out there and the Hispanic numbers. It's all over the there was one that had Trump up 7 with Hispanic voters in Arizona recently. I think it was the CNN one this week. Had Harris up 18. But that's where again, given how tight the margin was in 2020, even a relatively small gain with Hispanic voters could erase for Trump that gap.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Just a couple more things on the Senate. Barring some sort of recount sort of situation, there's a good chance we're going to know who has the Senate control in the first 24 hours here, given the size of the states where this is happening and where they're going to count. Is that right? Yeah.

[Steve Kornacki]

I mean look, once you take West Virginia officially off the table and the Republicans get that pickup, yeah. Ohio should be a pretty efficient vote counting state. So you'll know kind of Sherrod Brown there. And then if Brown doesn't hang on, I mean, you'll have tester later. But if Brown doesn't hang on, then Democrats have to pull a rabbit out of the hat somewhere. It'll be clear if there's any chance for them to do that in Texas, I think pretty early. And then there's that wild card in Nebraska, I know, not technically a Democrat, all of this stuff. But again, barring something like that, if Ohio is a four or five point win or something for, you know, for the Republicans, you'll know that on election night.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. And then finally the House. Good chance we're not going to the House for weeks. Right. Because we're going to be waiting for California ballots. If the House proceeds as we suspect and there's not some sort of a giant wave and we're down to a few seats probably decided in California. You have second maybe to New York, the largest batch of toss up winnable races. They don't count those votes. Those votes can be postmarked by election day. Is that right? So they're coming in for a while after that?

[Steve Kornacki]

Well, yeah, they're coming in for a while. They're also, they're just, they're very slow at counting it and it's a, it's another conversation. But yeah, for the House it could be election month if we're waiting on them.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, hopefully you don't have to wait on them and you can actually go home and get some sleep over that period of time. Steve Kornacki, thanks so much for joining us. Everyone is smarter from having listened to this conversation and good luck and we will be watching you very attentively on Tuesday night and beyond. Thanks again.

[Steve Kornacki]

Hey, thanks a lot, Dan. This was fun.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You can catch Steve as part of MSNBC's election night coverage on Tuesday, November 5th at 6pm Eastern. Okay. Before we go to break. I have an ask for you. It's officially the last Sunday before the 2024 election, which means this is my last Sunday bonus pod of the cycle. If you like these bonus episodes, you will love Crooked and Pod Save America's subscription program Friends of the Pod. Friends of the Pod perks include ad free Pod Save America episodes, Pod Save the World bonus segments, exclusive podcasts, and access to our Discord community. And most importantly, subscribing to Friends of the POD is the best way to support the work we do at Pod Save America and Crooked Media. Crooked's mission is to create a space for honest conversations about news, politics and the world around us, and we're committed to maintaining that mission no matter the outcome of this election. But we can't do it without your support. Here's why. Building the shows and initiatives that we envision for 2025 takes people time and money. Crooked's offering 25% off new annual subscriptions through Election Day. With an annual subscription, you'll be saving $30 a year and supporting Crooked Media. Subscribe [e-mail] friends or from the Pod Save America feed on Apple Podcast.

[Claude]

FX presents say Nothing based on the gripping true story and New York times bestseller. In 1970s Belfast, two young and idealistic sisters joined the IRA to fight for a united Ireland, graduating from rioting in the streets to robbing banks and planting bombs. Thirty years later, one of them agrees to a tell all interview about her ferocious and fascinating past under the condition it would only be released after her death. FX's say Nothing all episodes now streaming on Hulu.

[Caroline Reston]

Pod Save America is brought to you by Brooklinen. How are you preparing your guest rooms for friends and family? We already have actually with Brooklinen so got you covered Brooklinen because the sheets are great, the bedding's great, the blankets are great and so we have Brooklinen all over our house. Brooklinen's super high quality products have been tested and awarded by experts including Good Housekeeping, gq, Wirecutter and more. Brooklinen sheets are tried and true. With 200,000 plus 5 star reviews and millions of happy customers. They offer everything you need to style your dream bed with layers and textures like throws and blankets. Brooklinen's customizable bundles make it easy to refresh your bed and bathroom, putting everything you need in one place. Which is exactly what we've done in our home. Our bedroom, kids bedrooms and the guest bedrooms. It's perfect. So refresh your space today with Brooklyn's award winning textures Layers and Home essentials. Visit in store or [e-mail] that's B R O K L I N E n com. Get 15% off your first order today. This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. This month is all about gratitude. And along with thanking family or friends, there's another person we don't get to thank enough ourselves.

[Unknown]

Little pat yourself on the back.

[Caroline Reston]

You know, it's sometimes hard to remind ourselves that we're trying our best to make sense of everything. And in this crazy world, that isn't easy.

[Unknown]

It isn't easy.

[Caroline Reston]

Here's a reminder to send some thanks to the people in your life, including yourself.

[Unknown]

I think the term trying our best doesn't mean anything.

[Caroline Reston]

You've never done anything half assed.

[Unknown]

I know. Well, there's no, we're not all trying our best.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's wrong.

[Caroline Reston]

Oh, we're not all.

[Unknown]

Yeah, that's just sort of like, oh.

[Caroline Reston]

You'Re saying, okay, everyone's trying their best.

[Unknown]

Like, oh, well, they're trying their best. Maybe. I mean, I don't, I don't know. Like, do you, like, even when you are trying your best, it's not always clear. Like, are you?

[Caroline Reston]

Sounds like a conversation you should have with your therapist.

[Unknown]

That's what I'm saying.

[Caroline Reston]

If you're thinking of starting therapy, give better help a try. It's entirely online, designed to be convenient, flexible and suited to your schedule. Just fill out a brief questionnaire to get matched with a licensed therapist and switch therapists anytime for no additional charge. Therapy is great. You can go on rants like Lovett just did and the person's paid to listen. Even if you think you're fine, you just go sit down with someone.

[Unknown]

Trust me, I don't think I'm fine.

[Caroline Reston]

Yeah, well, even if you do, let the gratitude flow with BetterHelp, visit betterhelp.compsa today to get 10% off your first month. That's BetterHelp. H E L p.compsa.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Before we go, I wanted to answer some final questions from our subscribers. And joining me now is producer Polarcoaster, the Amazing Caroline Restaurant. Caroline, thank you for being here instead of Elijah. I appreciate it.

[H]

I'm really happy to be here. I don't know if it's because I haven't eaten or I've had two cups of coffee or I'm stressed, but I'm like, actually weirdly shaking right now from anxiety.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Electoral anxiety. You think?

[H]

Yeah, electoral. I mean, after listening to you and Steve Kornacki, I'm just Like, so overwhelmed with anxiety. But I'm very excited. Listeners, do everything you can. Don't be stressed like me.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, channel your stress by doing something in the final days by going to votesafeamerica.com and signing.

[H]

Yeah, be productive with that stress. Okay, so we got some really great discord questions here. The first one is from Calier338. They say I'm from a deeply blue state that is quite far away from most swing states. Is there evidence that texting and calling folks from the other side of the country sways undecided voters? Or how do voters respond from people who are contacting them out of state?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

In general, they may not know you're from out of state, so that's a plus. But the voters, where that is probably most helpful is geo TV calls. And that's usually what if you're signing up to volunteer for a campaign, you're going to be calling people to remind them to vote. These are people the campaign has decided are likely Kamala Harris or Democratic Senate or congressional voters who have not yet voted. So you're just trying to remind them to vote and giving them information about their polling places or early voting options. But everything helps. Do what you can from a blue state or a deeply red state, either one, it definitely helps do it.

[H]

Okay, this next question is something I've been really thinking about too. It's from swinging liberal 901. There is so much conversation about how Harris is polling with key constituencies. But how worried are you about the inability of polls to capture voters, inherent sexism and racial biases?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

This is a great question both of Barack Obama's races, 2016. And then obviously it props in the most vivid way possible in Kamala Harris election. And so we don't know now back many, many years ago, Tom Bradley, who was the black mayor of Los Angeles, ran for governor and the polling showed him winning and then he ended up losing the governor's race. And then that became known as something called the Bradley Effect. And the Bradley Effect was this idea that people will tell pollsters that they are willing to vote for a black candidate, but then when they actually get into the voting booth and are asked to pull the lever or fill in the bubble or whatever you're doing, they won't do it. And so basically this idea is they might have seemed more racially sensitive than they are. There was some sense that a similar thing happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton. Now, studies have shown, like retroactive studies that looked at the Bradley election, that that is actually not what happened? It was actually just a polling error. There have been some political science and sociological experiments to test this proposition and have not found that it exists. There isn't a lot of evidence that inherent or silent sexism is why the polls were wrong in 2020. Now, this is not saying that racial biases and sexism are not huge parts of the electoral calculus for people and overhang these elections. That is absolutely true, but we don't have any evidence that they affect the polls. And we saw no evidence in either one of Barack Obama's elections, either in the primary or the general election in 2008 and 2012, of the Bradley effects, he actually outperformed his polls.

[H]

Oh, okay. So if they're not voting for Kamala Harris, it's not because she's a woman. It's just.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No, no, no, no, no.

[H]

It's just because they hate her.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No, this is a very important point. They may be sexist and racist, but the question I think here is about whether sort of silent sexism or racism or hidden sexism or racism is skewing the polls in her favor. Right. So in other words, people are afraid to say that they aren't supporting her because they're afraid of being labeled sexist or racist. Right. And there's not evidence of that. But I am not trying to argue that misogyny and racism are not huge factors in an election with black woman running for President of the United States.

[H]

All right, all right, all right, next question. Anna Delhunt asks, if we lose, I'm not sure I'm going to find the strength to face the next four years. Obviously, I'm going to do what I can now, but what about on November 6th or whenever we find out? What should I do? Any tips?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I don't know how much value there is in preparing ourselves emotionally for what comes next. If Trump were to win, I think we should focus our energy on doing everything we possibly can to make sure that does not happen. If it does happen, it's obviously a deeply frightening, deeply dangerous. It's a crisis. Right? It's a crisis, and there are people in this country are going to be hurt in terrible ways. It's going to be scary. If that were to happen, we can all get together and figure out what we're going to do after that, because there's going to be huge responsibility for all of us to do what we can to prevent the worst things from happening as we mobilized in 2017. But do not waste your time and energy and mental space right now thinking about that. Is my recommendation it would be take that energy and focus it on trying to win this race because it is so close. It is very winnable. It's in the margin of effort. We can absolutely do that.

[H]

Okay, this is a similar ish question. And then we'll get to something a little more positive. But down the ballot. 96 asked. I already voted. I phone baked. I've canvassed in swing districts and I'm so stressed about having nothing to do on election day. Is there anything productive I can do on Tuesday beyond just watching cable news?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You can absolutely volunteer on election Day. It's one of the most important volunteer days out there because the campaigns are going to have a list of who their target voters are. And they know they have people at the precincts getting updated voter rolls as who's voted. So they have people calling the people who have not yet voted. We may need people who can drive people to the polls. Like, there is all kinds of things you can do on election day, from phone banking to driving people to the polls, to being a poll watcher or working for the campaign on that day, to just helping out in the office to get administrative work or coffee and donuts or whatever it is for the people who are working that day. There's so much you can do. So I would check with your local campaign or local party or go to Vote Save America, look for opportunities.

[H]

What level of creepy is it to call a stranger and be like, hey, do you want me to come pick you up at your home and drive you somewhere?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You don't call them. The campaign calls and offers them a ride because you have a lot of seniors who cannot get there on their own. If you live in a city, parking can be challenging. People can't do public transportation. And so it is a thing that happens all the time is that people do rides to the polls. Oftentimes they're people from your community or your neighborhood, but you can. It is absolutely a thing that happens all the time. You don't call them and say, hey, you don't know me. Meet me outside of my windowless van in 20 minutes. I'll take you the rest of the.

[H]

I don't know why. That's how I'm picturing it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, yes.

[H]

And my dumbass would be like, okay, I'll get into this car with this.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Weird man if you vote. Basically, Uber has normalized that for all of America. So I don't know what the difference is, but you're just taking a free Uber to the polls.

[H]

Okay, There is a follow up from a discord user named Super Skink, they say took Wednesday off in case I'm crying in the morning again like in 2016. What should I drink on election night to celebrate Kamala's win?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, first in a classic organic plug, you should drink in zebiotics. They're your first drink of the night. Zebiotics, Zebiotics. Free alcohol. Okay, that one's a freebie. Drink whatever you want. The one thing I would tell you to drink could be a long night. Drink water. Hydrate. Could be a while. You don't want to be this sad drunk as you're waiting for the final votes of Maricopa county to come in at three in the morning. Drink water. Wait till the election is called. If you want to have a champagne. You want to have a cocktail? I will have a cocktail if and when this race is called for Kamala Harris, I hope, you know, maybe that's at 7:30 in the morning. I'm okay with that if that's what happens. But that's where we are.

[H]

Okay, deal. Voter asks LeBron James just endorsed Kamala Harris. I know we tend to dismiss celebrity endorsements, but so close to the election, can this help? Should more celebrities hold their endorsements until its peak GOTV time?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Celebrity endorsements, There's a handful of exceptions. Taylor Swift being one of them. Their value is probably a little overstated. But where it matters is these celebrities have giant social media platforms and followers and they use those to announce endorsement. But also the fact that their endorsement reminds people to vote. Right. LeBron James, one of the most famous people in the world to get a huge following across the country, all ages, all races, all groups. And him telling people to vote could remind people who wouldn't otherwise vote to vote. It is less that the people are like, I wasn't really sure which candidate I liked on minimum wage, but I also care about immigration, but I also care about abortion. What do I do? And it's like, oh, Jennifer Lopez is for I'm in. Like, it doesn't really work that way. It's more that the, the reflected glory of the celebrities brings more attention to the candidate and their positions. And then they use their platforms to remind people to vote. With all due respect to Jennifer Lopez, who gave a great speech at her rally with Kamala Harris last night.

[H]

So there is strategy to all these like mega celebrities waiting until the end to do it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, you know, it's six year halftime. The other. Right. Do you want one post at the end or do you want 12 posts over the last three weeks. Right. You know, it's hard to say.

[H]

Yeah. I was listening to what a Day, and they were talking about the Bad Bunny effect, and Bad Bunny seems like actually a huge endorsement to get right at the end.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. And there's timing to it, too, happening at the exact moment of the offensive comments about Puerto Rico from the Trump rally. Like, it's a very powerful endorsement. Bad Bunny would certainly be on that list with Taylor Swift in terms of the celebrity endorsements people really care about, man.

[H]

I know it's been said before, but Democratic Party is so much more fun. Like, we just are such a better, more fun party. We got all the celebrities, we got all the good music. They have that random comedian.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, that's something we should actually play up. This is something that was very true of the party in the Obama era, and we've sort of lost some of that. But we should be the fun party. We should be the ones with the fun. And Kamala Harris has brought that back. That's the joy, I would say. We had that with Obama. We kind of lost that in the Trump era. And then Kamala Harris has brought it back. Like, her rallies seem fun as hell. They're fun anyway. But the celebrities, it's all great. It's a party.

[H]

It really is. Okay, here's the last question, and it is from yours truly.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Oh, wow.

[H]

Toughie. Okay, Dan, who's going to win?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I will not answer this question. I will not. It is a cardinal rule of Pod Save America that after 2016, we don't make predictions. We focus our energy on trying to make what we want happen as opposed to guess what's going to happen. The thing I will say is this is an incredibly close race. You can make a reasonable, rational, credible argument that either candidate is favored. Trump. The political environment is very much in Trump's favor. Right. The Kamala Harris is the better candidate with a better campaign, I think. And I wrote this in my newsletter message box this morning. I think there are three reasons for optimism for Kamala Harris down the stretch. One is that Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans. That's something that has not been written about much. Democratic enthusiasm is at the same level right now for Kamala Harris that it was for Barack Obama in 2000. And enthusiasm matters a lot, particularly when you have built an organization as the Harris campaign has, to harness that enthusiasm into action and to votes. Second, if you look at the polling, the economy is the top issue for everyone. It is everyone's most important issue. It's one where Trump has had a huge lead. He had a 20 point lead on Biden at one point in the most recent New York Times Siena poll, that lead is down to six points. Kamaras doesn't have to beat Donald Trump in the economy, but she has to reach a certain level of credibility and trust that the voters who are cross pressured where they don't like Trump, they don't like January 6th, they don't like how he acts, but they also are deeply concerned about the cost of gas and the cost of groceries and their economic future trust her enough to be willing to turn the page on Trump. And the third reason is and this is something that everyone listening to this obviously listened to in my conversation with Ron Brownstein last week. But we are not talking enough about how the demographic shifts in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in particular have moved in the Democratic's favor. In Michigan and Wisconsin in particular, the base of the Trump coalition, white, non college educated voters, has shrunk by two points as a sharer of the electorate. His mountain is higher to climb this time because of that. And I think that if Kamala Harris can maximize her gains with core parts of her coalition, then she can win this race.

[H]

All right, that sounds like a great place to end on.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That'll wrap up our episode for today. Thank you to Steve Kornacki and to Caroline and our subscribers for the questions. If you're a friend of the POD subscriber, I'll be on your feet again soon for a new Polar Coaster. Thanks everyone.

[Caroline Reston]

If you want to get ad free episodes, exclusive content and more, consider joining our friends of the pod subscription [e-mail] friends and if you're already doom scrolling, don't forget to follow us at podsave America on Instagram, Twitter and YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content and more. Plus, if you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping us a review to help boost this episode or spice up the group chat by sharing it with friends, family or randos. You want in on this conversation? Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our producers are David Toledo and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safaree. Reed Churlin is our executive editor and Adrian Hill is our executive producer. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer Madeline Herringer is our head of news and programming. Matt de Groot is our head of production. Andy Taft is our Executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Phoebe Bradford, Joseph Dutra, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Molly Lobel, Kirill Pelaviev and David Toll.

[I]

Gifting is hard, but here's a hint. Give the gift of connection from US Cellular. Not sure what that means. Here's a slightly more specific hint. You can choose four free phones and get four lines for $90 a month from US Cellular. Your family wants new phones. How do we know? They told us. The good news is that compared to wrapping presents, you're great at getting hints. So take the hint and get them four free phones and four lines for $90 a month US Cellular built for us.