First Look At Trump's Second Term

Summary

Pod Save America: First Look At Trump's Second Term

Hosts: Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor
Guest: Congressman Pat Ryan
Episode Title: First Look At Trump's Second Term

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Overview In this compelling episode of Pod Save America, hosts Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, and Tommy Vietor delve deep into the potential ramifications of Donald Trump securing a second term as President. The discussion covers a wide array of topics, including Trump's staffing choices, legislative maneuvers, immigration policies, foreign policy appointments, and threats to political adversaries. The episode also features an insightful conversation with New York Congressman Pat Ryan, who shares his strategies for winning in a challenging swing district.

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1. Senate and House Race Outcomes [02:08–04:35]

Jon Favreau begins by updating listeners on the closely contested Senate and House races following the election. Key highlights include:

• Ruben Gallego in California has nearly secured his Senate seat.
• Arizona's race remains undecided, with Bob Casey trailing in Pennsylvania despite the AP declaring the race.
• Colorado Democrat Yadira Caravago has conceded her race, contributing to a narrow Republican majority prediction in the House.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Favreau ([02:12]): "Trump starts staffing his administration with some of the worst people you know."
• Jon Lovett ([03:25]): "Nothing hopeful on the majority front, to be honest."

2. Trump’s Administration Staffing Moves [05:07–11:42]

The hosts scrutinize Trump's strategy of filling his administration with staunch allies and controversial figures, bypassing traditional Senate confirmation processes. A significant focus is on Trump's nomination of Susie Wiles as White House Chief of Staff.

Key Points:

• Susie Wiles is highlighted as a seasoned political operative with deep ties to the MAGA movement.
• Concerns are raised about her ability to navigate internal conflicts and implement Trump's agenda effectively.

Notable Quotes:

• Tommy Vietor ([10:42]): "It's a behind-the-scenes operator. She is just a former lobbyist."
• Jon Lovett ([11:42]): "Trumpier Republican Senate is going to be very easy for Trump to get his top positions filled with whoever he wants."

3. Immigration Policy Proposals [12:46–20:47]

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Trump's proposed immigration policies, raising alarms about potential mass deportations and family separations.

Key Points:

• Tom Homan, Trump's nominee for Border Czar, has a record linked to family separation policies.
• Trump vows to target the "worst of the worst," but skepticisms about humane implementation persist.
• Debates on the legality and practicality of implementing such stringent immigration reforms.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Lovett ([15:20]): "He classifies the worst of the worst as people on the terrorist watch list."
• Tommy Vietor ([19:45]): "This is going to be family separation everywhere."

4. Foreign Policy Appointments [21:23–25:30]

The episode examines Trump's foreign policy stance through his nominations for key positions, particularly Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador and Lee Zeldin as EPA Administrator.

Key Points:

• Elise Stefanik is perceived as a loyal Trump supporter, raising concerns about her foreign policy direction.
• Lee Zeldin's nomination suggests a potential rollback of environmental regulations and a shift towards an "America First" ideology.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Lovett ([23:47]): "He doesn't trust her."
• Tommy Vietor ([24:27]): "She will probably pull out of the Paris Climate Accords."

5. Conflict with Fed Chair Jerome Powell [26:16–28:58]

The hosts discuss the tense relationship between Trump and Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, speculating on potential attempts by Trump to undermine Powell's position.

Key Points:

• Trump may attempt to pressure Powell to resign or be removed, risking a constitutional battle.
• Legal experts debate the extent of presidential power in altering the Federal Reserve’s leadership.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Lovett ([27:16]): "You believe the President has the power to fire or demote you? Not permitted under the law."
• Tommy Vietor ([28:19]): "Trump probably wins that."

6. Majority Leader Selection [29:14–43:56]

The focus shifts to the selection of the Republican Senate Majority Leader, with Rick Scott emerging as the favored candidate amidst internal party pressures.

Key Points:

• Rick Scott receives significant endorsements from influential figures like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson.
• Concerns about Scott’s capability and alignment with Trump’s aggressive agenda.
• The potential for recess appointments to bypass Senate confirmations if Republicans secure slender majorities.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Favreau ([35:54]): "Great job. Now your boss is going to be Rick Scott."
• Tommy Vietor ([36:21]): "Rick Scott has proven himself to be very bad at politics."

7. Potential Use of Recess Appointments [39:05–44:25]

Discussion on the constitutional provisions for recess appointments and how Trump might exploit them to bypass traditional Senate confirmations for his nominees.

Key Points:

• Legal debates on whether Trump can effectively use recess appointments to fill key positions without Senate approval.
• The strategic importance of maintaining a slim majority to facilitate these appointments without triggering backlash.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Lovett ([40:53]): "Trump could confirm a lot of these folks with just a majority vote."
• Jon Favreau ([43:56]): "They have a lot of ways to get around this without even having to get to recess appointments."

8. Threats to Political Enemies [44:38–52:20]

A concerning segment where the hosts explore Trump's potential use of government mechanisms to target political adversaries, including threats to revoke security clearances and prosecute opponents.

Key Points:

• Donald Trump has hinted at using the Department of Justice and other agencies to go after enemies within the political landscape.
• Legal experts express fears over the chilling effects on whistleblowers and dissent within the government.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Favreau ([46:39]): "It's going to be a chilling effect on whistleblowers and dissent."
• Jon Lovett ([51:18]): "Trump is running an ongoing criminal operation."

9. Interview with Congressman Pat Ryan [57:07–85:37]

The episode features an insightful interview with Congressman Pat Ryan from New York, who discusses his remarkable victory in a traditionally Democratic district. Ryan shares valuable lessons for Democrats on effective campaigning and reconnecting with voters.

Key Points:

• District Composition: A blend of NYC suburbs, rural areas, affluent cities, and multiple universities, reflecting diverse voter bases.
• Winning Strategy: Emphasis on constituent services, listening sessions, and addressing local issues like utility billing problems.
• Substance and Style: Balancing policy-driven narratives with genuine, on-the-ground engagement to rebuild trust.
• Cultural Messaging: Advocating for a unifying "freedom" framework to connect with voters beyond partisan divides.

Notable Quotes:

• Pat Ryan ([58:02]): "There are people on the ground dealing with major pain points like affordability, and we had to connect with them."
• Pat Ryan ([67:21]): "Freedom is the most unifying American value at a values level."
• Pat Ryan ([73:49]): "We have to be manning the ramparts and holding the line."

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10. Conclusion and Future Outlook [85:37–89:38]

The hosts wrap up the episode by reflecting on the possibility of Kamala Harris becoming President and debunking election-related conspiracy theories about missing votes. They emphasize the resilience of American institutions against authoritarian shifts and the importance of staying informed.

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Lovett ([88:16]): "The election wasn't stolen in 2020. There's no conspiracy to steal 15 million votes this time."
• Jon Favreau ([89:13]): "It's very disheartening to see votes really matter less because of conspiracy theories."

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Key Takeaways:

• Trump's Potential Second Term: Raises significant concerns about authoritarian shifts, aggressive immigration policies, and the undermining of democratic institutions.
• Senate Majority Leader Selection: The choice of Rick Scott indicates a move towards a more Trump-aligned Senate, potentially facilitating recess appointments.
• Immigration and Foreign Policy: Policies suggest a harsher stance on immigration and a rollback of environmental and foreign commitments.
• Threats to Political Enemies: Alarming possibilities of using governmental power to target adversaries, creating a climate of fear and suppression.
• Democratic Strategies: Congressman Pat Ryan's success underscores the importance of grassroots engagement, addressing constituent needs, and balancing substance with relatable messaging.

Final Thoughts: This episode of Pod Save America provides a thorough analysis of the potential impacts of a Trump second term, highlighting the urgent need for strategic responses from Democrats to safeguard democratic norms and reconnect with the electorate.

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Notable Timestamped Quotes:

• Jon Favreau ([02:12]): "Trump starts staffing his administration with some of the worst people you know."
• Jon Lovett ([11:42]): "Trumpier Republican Senate is going to be very easy for Trump to get his top positions filled with whoever he wants."
• Jon Lovett ([15:20]): "He classifies the worst of the worst as people on the terrorist watch list."
• Tommy Vietor ([19:45]): "This is going to be family separation everywhere."
• Jon Lovett ([27:16]): "You believe the President has the power to fire or demote you? Not permitted under the law."
• Pat Ryan ([58:02]): "There are people on the ground dealing with major pain points like affordability, and we had to connect with them."
• Pat Ryan ([73:49]): "We have to be manning the ramparts and holding the line."
• Jon Lovett ([88:16]): "The election wasn't stolen in 2020. There's no conspiracy to steal 15 million votes this time."

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This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive understanding for those who haven't listened to the full podcast.

Transcript

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[Jon Favreau]

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.

[Jon Lovett]

I'm Jon Levitt.

[Tommy Vitor]

I'm Tommy Vitor.

[Jon Favreau]

On today's show, Trump starts staffing his administration with some of the worst people you know. And he also wants a Senate Majority Leader who will let him appoint whoever he wants for his cabinet, administration and even the judiciary without any Senate confirmation. We'll also get into what we know and still don't know about Trump's plans for his second term, including the prospects for exacting revenge on his political enemies. Then New York Congressman Pat Ryan, one of the Dems who hung on in a very tough district by quite a lot, stops by to talk to Tommy about how he pulled it off and what lessons the party needs to learn if we want to actually hold power again. Wouldn't that be nice?

[Jon Lovett]

That's how it's pronounced. Power, power, power.

[Jon Favreau]

But first, votes are still being counted in key Senate and House races. Here's what we know as of Monday afternoon, California time. In the Senate, Ruben Gallego has just about won. In Arizona, though, the race hasn't been officially called by anyone but decision desk hq. He's got it. Yeah, I think Kerry Lake's run out of Runway there with the votes coming in. Yeah, Bob Casey is still behind in Pennsylvania. And while the AP has called the race, many other outlets have not. And Casey hasn't conceded because of the amount of votes still out there. There's like 100,000 votes.

[Tommy Vitor]

It's a lot of votes that have.

[Jon Favreau]

A lot of congressional ballots.

[Jon Lovett]

Take your time. Consequently, California, some of these districts are like 38%, 45. Look what's going on here.

[Jon Favreau]

I know. Well, you know, it's, it's Northern California that's the real problem. I think LA county is doing much better than like Alameda is like, at 40%.

[Jon Lovett]

What's going on up there?

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know. Consequently, Chuck Schumer did not invite Casey's Republican challenger, Dave McCormick to Senate orientation, though he didn't invite Gallego either. Yes, I'm not even going to get into that again. We're, we're talking here about a 47 seat minority versus a 48 seat minority for Democrats in the House. Unfortunately, the fight to eke out a Democratic majority is all but over. Colorado Democrat Yadira Caravago conceded her race. The count right now, according to the AP, is 204 Democrats to 214 Republicans. With 17 seats still undetermined. Democrats might still win a bunch of these uncalled races, but right now it's looking like a very narrow Republican majority, maybe even just one or two seats smaller than last time, but still a majority. Anything you guys have seen out there about the race counts that's particularly hopeful or interesting?

[Tommy Vitor]

Nothing hopeful on the majority front, to be honest. I mean, there was a glimmer of hope in one of the California races we're waiting on, which is George Whiteside is a little ahead at the moment. The Republican incumbent Mike Garcia won that seat by six points in 2022, which gave me a little hope maybe that like Derek Tran, Dave Minn, Will Rollins and the other California Dems that we're waiting on vote totals for might pull it out, but we don't know.

[Jon Favreau]

I know. I thought I saw that like Derek Tran had a couple of good ballot dumps and then I think he fell behind again against Michelle Steele.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I do think one just like, look, there's been a lot of quick and dirty takes about does field matter? Does organizing matter? And then you look and you see that like Dave Min May eke it out. Some of those races in Nevada were going to eke it out. And you just think like those House races where a bunch of people that listen to the show got on buses and went and knocked on doors, like, it will make the difference and it will make Republicans jobs harder.

[Jon Favreau]

Also with Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Alyssa Slotkin in Michigan, we had a number of Senate candidates who just, you know, Jackie Rosen in Nevada who like hung on by the skin of their teeth.

[Tommy Vitor]

Good candidates, good campaigns do matter. I mean, Carrie Lake is going to underperform Donald Trump by 8 points.

[Jon Favreau]

That's enormous margin, which is some of the worst underperformance of any other Republican except Deb Fisher, who underperformed in relation because of Dan Osborne and Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz underperformed Trump by more than Kari Lake.

[Tommy Vitor]

I want Colin to run off here.

[Jon Favreau]

I know that's, that's what exactly, that's what makes you think, like, if Colin Allred was running in a midterm, like, he could have done it, he could have done it. So we saw how difficult it was for Mike Johnson to get things through the last Congress and his margin this time might be even tighter. A two or three seat majority in the Senate isn't that big either. How are you guys thinking about how much the final numbers matter here and sort of the margins that Republicans will have in both houses?

[Tommy Vitor]

I mean, a very slim majority is tough to manage. And we've seen Speaker Johnson fumble the bag over the last couple of years a few times. That said, I'm worried that Johnson's job gets easier when he feels that he is implementing the Trump agenda or when Trump feels like he is implementing the Trump agenda. And he has a bunch of members who are worried primarily about Trump figuring out a primary challenger to them if they don't go along with what he says. Now, long term, that means that you could have a bunch of moderates taking a lot of Bad votes that hurt them in the midterms. So that's a reason to be hopeful two years from now. But in the short term, it feels like they will be a little more pliant.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I don't know. I'm not sure. Look, I think a slimmer majority is better. There will be. I think it also, I think depends on what happens with Trump's popularity. Right. Like what happens as he starts to implement other policies that start to draw a backlash. I also think just how pliant the Senate is matters. Right. Because you could imagine House Republicans kind of just passing things along and then the hope is that they get killed in the Senate. But I'm not as sure of that this time when you have, we'll get to it. But Republican candidates for Majority leader kind of bending over backwards to suck Trump's cock. So it's very like that, sort of, please, please, please, sir. You know, and so I.

[Tommy Vitor]

2024 is a different vibe.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

It's trying to be the liberal Joe Rogan over here.

[Tommy Vitor]

Classic. Such a bro. Such.

[Jon Lovett]

Do you think that I wouldn't win? Do you think I wouldn't. I guess I wouldn't have said that if Kamala won, but I would have said it before.

[Jon Favreau]

True. So, yeah, Trump is basically, we'll get into this, but he's basically gonna be running the House and the Senate. Right. He's never been known to be a master legislator, so that's cause for hope. And I do think, like Tommy said, a lot of these Republican, I don't even wanna call them moderates. We'll call them frontline members. Sure. But they are gonna be very vulnerable in 2026. And it's going to be, you know, either, either like the rest of the House and Senate bend to their will to try to keep them from losing in 2026. Or what's more likely in the Republican Party, they just make them take all those bad votes.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, I think what I, what I suspect, because I do think they're going to be very worried about drawing the evil eye as Tommy mentioned, but at the same time they're going to be afraid of taking some really hard votes, as you see kind of behind the scenes wrangling to try to kind of take out the most offensive parts of some of these proposals and then, and then get them through and Trump doesn't give a fuck.

[Tommy Vitor]

So we'll declare victory until Trump makes them pass the no elections until I say so act of 2024.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I do think in this, in the Senate, it's 47 versus 48 here. So you gotta think the Republican majority in the Senate is built on having Susan Collins, who's gonna be up again and maybe retiring and has always been more moderate than the rest of her colleagues, Lisa Murkowski. So on some of the real crazy shit, you may lose Collins and Murkowski, Tom Tillis. And Tom Tillis, who's going to be up in North Carolina, a state that when all is said and done, looks like it performed better than some of the other swing states like Arizona, and didn't swing nearly as much to the right as the rest of the country. So, you know, those three are senators to watch on some of the, again, they're going to go along with most of the shit, but on some of the truly crazy shit, I would watch those three and figure out what the final count is to really see how much trouble we're in. One thing we do know about the new Trumpier Republican Senate is that it's going to be very easy for Trump to get his top positions filled with whoever he wants. Trump has already made quite a few staff announcements. Campaign manager Susie Wiles will be his White House chief of staff, a position that does not require Senate confirmation. Essentially. Wiles has already served as Trump's chief of staff since 2021, when he was in political exile in Florida. Even from Republicans in the wake of January 6th. She's a former lobbyist known for working behind the scenes. She's like a very well known, very well respected political operative in Florida, Maybe one of the best political operatives in Florida. Even Democrats have praised her skills.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, but second place is just an alligator with a hat.

[Jon Favreau]

And of course she's being given credit for running Trump's most disciplined campaign yet. How are we feeling about Susie Wiles, guys?

[Tommy Vitor]

I mean, take away, I know how we feeling. Suze, I think he chose a confidant and a MAGA insider versus a relative outsider like even Reince Priebus, John Kelly, Mick Mulvaney, Mark Meadows, previous chiefs of staff. Those guys were seen as knowing how the party worked or Congress worked or being a general that could like install discipline in some way. And she's just, you know, she's a well known Republican but someone who is a part of MAGA world and respected and apparently the Don Jr. And the kids wanted her to get the job. So I could view it two ways. Like the glass half full version is she's not a total right wing ideologue. It could have been Stephen Miller who will be her deputy. That really sucks. But you know, could have been worse. Wiles was once a moderate. She started working with Jack Kemp in the beginning of her career. I don't know what she believes now. The glass half empty version, though, is that she has proven to be incredibly effective. And she could be the kind of person that helps them get done things they failed to get done last time because Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner were fighting in the news or whatever. So I don't know. We'll see.

[Jon Favreau]

It's also a question of whether she survives all of those other assholes and the knife fighting and all that kind of stuff.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, that was sort of what I, I went back and looked at what the write ups were when Reince Priebus was named. And we forget how far the Republican Party has shifted to Trump because a lot of that discussion was about how Priebus was an olive branch to House Republicans and Senate Republicans. He was an establishment person. And my fear about someone like Susie Wiles is in the first Trump administration, you had the establishment types that were there in their minds to kind of straitjacket Trump. And then you have the kooks who were there to let Trump loose but were pretty incompetent. And I feel like now not only does Trump have control of the Republican Party, no olive branches needed, in fact, the branches are coming the other fucking direction. It's more competent advisers who believe it is their job to implement Trump's vision. And that to me, is what's scary about Susie Wiles, because she does. She is just a, a behind the scenes operator. She is a former lobbyist. And by the way, that's a word that I would be using more that Susie Wells is lobbyist.

[Tommy Vitor]

Drain the swamp.

[Jon Lovett]

But yeah, that was my concern, pinning.

[Jon Favreau]

All my hopes on Susie Wiles. It shows you how bad everything is. You know, I'm like, it is, it's like, would I rather Susie Wiles in charge than Steven Miller or Stephen Bannon? Yes, no doubt. Of course. Michael Cruz at Politico had a great profile of her in April. Very long profile in Politico. She also worked for Romney, Mitt Romney at some point. She's a self described moderate working for Trump.

[Tommy Vitor]

First woman to ever be chief of staff. That is shocking. 2024, also Pat Summerall's daughter.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, crazy. A lot of that profile was about sort of her relationship with him and Carlos Curbelo, who's the former Republican congressman from Florida who like lost and then became sort of a never. Trumper said, if Donald Trump is going to be president, I want Susie Wiles involved. So, you know, on the scale from inmates running the asylum to Committee to Save America. Remember, a Committee to Save America. They're back.

[Tommy Vitor]

We're going to miss it. Unbelievable.

[Jon Favreau]

You know, the first time around, I'll tell you, though, I was. We were. We all did this. We're like, oh, the community save America. They suck. Why don't they just come out and say he's awful and resign? And in all their excuses about we're just there to try to prevent the bad stuff from happening. I've had a bit of a change of heart now. If there's people there who want to be the Committee to Save America and want to try to stop bad things from happening, you stick around. Sure, stick around. Do your best. Do your best. Because one of Susie Wild's deputies will be Santa Monica's own Stephen Miller, Trump's former head speechwriter, who will now have the title deputy chief of staff for policy. He'll be in charge of Trump's deportation agenda, along with Tom Homan, who's Trump's former acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ice, who will now be Trump's border czar. Homan is out there acknowledging that the deportations will be large scale, but he told Fox News on Sunday, it's going to be a, quote, humane operation. And the Sunday Times of London that they're first, quote, going to concentrate on the worst of the worst, and then it's going to be a lot different to what the liberal media is saying it's going to be.

[Tommy Vitor]

Okay.

[Jon Favreau]

Any idea what you guys think this might look like in reality?

[Tommy Vitor]

I mean, I think this is sort of the worst case when it comes to immigration. I talked to Jacob Soboroff a couple weeks ago on Pod Save the World. He is a great NBC reporter who did a lot of reporting and wrote a book about the family separation policy. And he said that Tom Homan was one of the main drivers of family separation in the Trump administration. And the combination of Tom Homan and Stephen Miller make me fear the absolute worst when it comes to immigration and mass deportation. And I think it's just good to remember that mass deportation is family separation on steroids. And Homan has vowed to run, quote, the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen. So they're not scaling this back.

[Jon Lovett]

It's not also reassuring that the person who was a champion of family separation is describing this as humane. A former acting director of ICE under Obama just noted that there aren't a million, quote, unquote, criminals to get if you're starting to talk about those numbers. You're talking about separating families. There are 4.5 million mixed status households. These are people that will be swept up in it. I do like they are. They're, you know, Donald Trump has said every single version of what this could look like. Right. He's described it as targeting the worst. He's describing as getting all undocumented people in the country out. And my fear about how this unfolds is they start with more targeted approaches. They try to excite a liberal backlash that they can paint as being a bunch of out of touch progressives trying to defend the worst criminals. They kind of inure the public to slowly rising numbers of mass deportations until we are seeing far more people being removed from the country and it becomes almost routine. So that's, that is my fear in the way they're talking about this. They are trying to gin up that kind of. The liberals are losing their minds. We're not going to do anything. That's my fear.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. So just to dig into what they've said so far, what he said, what they've said, he has said that and he told 60 Minutes this in an interview before the election, that they don't want to do family separation, that families can be deported together to avoid separation.

[Tommy Vitor]

So nice.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And wants to go into sanctuary cities, go after sanctuary cities. Said that if state or local officials block them and won't offer help from the police, that he said that's fine, ICE will just do it alone without police help. He didn't say anything about, he said no military police needed, just ice. He's got a lot of faith in ice. Obviously he's a former ICE guy. He said, quote to CBS, it's not going to be a mass sweep of neighborhoods. It's not going to be building concentration camps. I've read it all. It's ridiculous. And then of course he said he classifies the worst of the worst as people on the terrorist watch list. Criminal threats get prioritized. Which by the way, this is like the idea that the Biden administration is allowing undocumented immigrants who've committed violent crimes to just run free by choice and not because like they haven't been able to been found by law enforcement is insane. But anyway, so that's what he says. And then, you know, in Project 2025, they specifically cite the first round that they of of undocumented immigrants they want to go after are people who committed felonies, crimes of violence, DUIs and previous removal. So if you have Been removed once before, obviously, then remain in Mex will come back. Which is Trump's policy of if you are going to come here and ask for asylum, instead of coming over the border and being detained here or allowed to stay here, you have to stay in Mexico. Biden rescinded that, so they'll bring that back. What's still unknown, and this is the big stuff here. What happens with TPS status. Vance and Trump both said they were going to rescind TPS status. That's what a lot of the Haitian migrants have in Ohio and Springfield, but also a lot of other places. So they want to basically reset. So they have said in the campaign they would rescind tps, but we don't.

[Tommy Vitor]

Just, just to clarify what TPS is, TPS is temporary protected status, which is something that's given to a group of people that are coming here from a country that is so dangerous you cannot return them to that country. So like Haiti, ever since the assassination of the President was it 2021 has descended into war zone like levels of violence. And the idea of just plucking people out of Ohio and sending them on planes back to Hait and acting like they're going to be okay there is ludicrous.

[Jon Favreau]

And these people are, you know, they're legal again. And Trump and Vance and the rest of them say they're not legal because they think that the action of giving them temporary protected status was illegal is what they're saying, which is insane. Also unknown, what happens with the dreamers, undocumented children of immigrants. Also just the working, law abiding undocumented immigrants who've been here for years, decades. We don't know what's going to happen with that.

[Tommy Vitor]

People served in the military.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. So those are all big question marks. They of course, haven't said anything about them yet, but we, we will see.

[Tommy Vitor]

I just like that that CBS interview is such bullshit. The idea that this process is going to be neat and tidy and families are going to go together as a package and people aren't going to do everything they can to protect their kids, to hide them, to give themselves up, to protect their families. Like, give me a fucking break. This is going to be family separation everywhere.

[Jon Lovett]

Right. It's sort of a. Well, if you don't want us to separate your family, your child who speaks English, has never been to Mexico, can leave with you and start a new life from scratch in a country that your child does not know. Or you can leave your children behind and your spouse potentially.

[Jon Favreau]

Look, I think this is where really good reporting is going to come into play here. Because like you said, if they start deporting and making a big show of deporting people who have committed violent crimes here, then, you know, the liberal backlash will only help them, you know, but what we're going to have to really watch for is, you know, them making a big show of that, but then quietly deporting, you know, children and other people who, you know, any other Democratic administration or even normal Republican administration would, you know, provide a path to citizenship.

[Jon Lovett]

For Trump rescinded the family separation order.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes.

[Jon Lovett]

Under backlash and scrutiny and negative press and just, I know sometimes we act as though gravity doesn't apply to him.

[Tommy Vitor]

He didn't like how he looked on tv, right? Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Trump announced over the weekend that he will not be inviting either Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo to join his administration.

[Pat Ryan]

Oh, no.

[Jon Favreau]

I guess because he enjoys publicly humiliating people who ran against him or thought about running against him. In Pompeo's case, he will instead be nominating the sycophantic moderate turned MAGA Congresswoman Elise Stefanik to be UN Ambassador. The New York Republican is currently the House Conference Chair. That's number three in the House, and her departure would narrow the House majority even further and trigger a special election. Tommy, what do we know about her foreign policy views and what is this signal, if anything, about Trump's foreign policy writ large?

[Tommy Vitor]

I don't know that we know that much about her foreign policy views. I mean, there's part of me that thinks that Trump naming Elise Stefanik to the UN might be the first and last time he ever says her name, you know, and just forgets that she exists. In reality, she will probably use the perch to do a bunch of high profile things to defend Israel in various ways and, like, reaffirm her bona fides there, like she did at the hearings with the college presidents about antisemitism. What this signals to me about foreign policy I think is important. Like, the Nikki Haley thing didn't surprise me. She ran against him, she stayed in a long time. She didn't kiss the ring.

[Jon Lovett]

And he knows he can't trust her. Yeah, it's like, totally. Right.

[Tommy Vitor]

He doesn't trust her.

[Jon Lovett]

She's not trustworthy. Right.

[Tommy Vitor]

Pompeo, though, was like, he's a MAGA loyalist. And I think it's an important signal about the direction they're going. And I reached out to someone who's a very close Trump watcher to say, like, what do you think this means? And this person said, this means that Don Jr. And J.D. vance are in charge of personnel right now. And the Pompeo in particular, to me felt like those guys taking like a neocon establishment head, cutting it off and sticking it on a pike for all others to see as they think about applying to jobs in the administration. And it suggested this time around the national security team will not be retired four star generals and Jim Mattis and like squishy business guys like Rex Tillerson. It is going to be America first ideologues and all those people are going.

[Jon Favreau]

To be like fascists. Don't even come near here. That's.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, like last time Trump was general, he was America first on the streets, establishment cuck in the sheets. I mean, so it doesn't bode well for Ukraine. It suggests Trump will pull US Troops out of, you know, Syria, Somalia. If I lived in Taiwan or South Korea, I would be nervous. And look, not all of this is bad. I mean, I think there is popular support for some parts of this agenda. There's clearly some of the, like, you know, war on terror, US military establishment, you know, infrastructure that should be sunsetted at some point, but. And also silver lining that John Bolton is not going to be administration silver lining that ultra hawks like Tom Cotton are not even applying for jobs. But I viewed it as a big signal.

[Jon Favreau]

I was sort of surprised that Marco Rubio keeps getting floated for a potential national security job because I'm like, he, I know he is now extremely Trumpy, but he's still a neocon enough that I feel like he does not quite fit with the, with the America first group.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. But he's been brought to heel. I mean, Elise Stefanik would, I think, had she been around longer before she made her turn, been a Marco Rubio type, at least by instinct. But they've shown themselves to be quite pliant.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

You know, just on the UN piece, like the UN relies on the US for about a third of its budget. There's all these component parts to it that matter a lot to people like us. We do half the funding for the World Food Program, you know, they'll probably pull out of the Paris Climate Accords. Unrwa, which does all the humanitarian relief in Gaza and the surrounding areas for Palestinians, will probably get gutted again. I'm guessing RFK Jr is not a big fan of the World Health Organization, which is a part of the un so it could be a lot of changes.

[Jon Favreau]

You know, Elise Stefanik vacating that seat now, she won the district by quite a bit. But I don't know. It's 80 days by new York state law to schedule a special election after she officially vacates the seat. You start off your first hundred days of the administration with one less seat and an already very thin House majority. Also, that's before any other potential Republican House members. It's a little dicey. It's getting close in the House majority there.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. Yeah. I can see why she wants the job, though.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

It's just sort of like being in opposition is fun. She loved being in opposition to Democrats. Now she gets to be in opposition to the UN and all that it represents to the right. It was also, it's funny to think too, like that was Nikki Haley's job.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

And now we've shifted from him putting in place kind of more establishment type Republicans to someone who has completely loyal to him.

[Jon Favreau]

So Trump just announced he's nominating another New Yorker who was in Congress, former Congressman Lee Zeldin, to be the EPA administrator. A lot of New Yorkers getting the nod. Tom Homan, also from New York. His lifetime score from the League of Conservation of Voters is a whopping 14%.

[Jon Lovett]

14% better than a lot of Republicans.

[Jon Favreau]

What do we know about Zeldin, aside from the fact that he's a Trump loyalist and lost the governor's race to Kathy Hochul?

[Jon Lovett]

I don't really know that we need to know much. He's expressed some climate skepticism, though he did join a climate solutions caucus. It's interesting that we're going with Lee Zeldin who's not like, doesn't have a big record on environmental issues. The previous lawyer. Right, he's a lawyer. Previous head of the epa was a co lobbyist. That was who was there the first term. But I think we can just expect there's also somebody who voted against certifying the elections, a Trumpy guy.

[Jon Favreau]

And don't worry, coal enthusiasts, you'll still have your, you'll be fine.

[Jon Lovett]

But I think he is being sent there to gut climate and clean energy regulations with gusto. And that is what he will do. Right. That is the plan.

[Jon Favreau]

Again, what the people asked for in the election. One last top government job to cover. Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell famously do not get along. After appointing Powell in 2017, Trump reportedly spent the rest of his administration second guessing the decision. That's new. And in 2018, per the Wall Street Journal, Powell even considered footing his own legal bills to hold onto the job if Trump fired him. Now the question is whether Trump is still flirting with firing Powell, whose term ends in 2026, as some of Trump's supporters want him to. Powell has a different idea. Here he is at a news conference last Thursday. Some of the President's elect's advisors have.

[Jon Lovett]

Suggested that you should resign. If he asked you to leave, would you go?

[Pat Ryan]

No.

[Jon Favreau]

Can you follow up on, do you.

[Tommy Vitor]

Think that legally he did.

[Jon Favreau]

You're not required to leave?

[Pat Ryan]

No. You believe the President has the power.

[Tommy Vitor]

To fire or demote you?

[Pat Ryan]

And has the Fed determined the legality of a president demoting at will any of the other governors with leadership positions? Not permitted under the law.

[Tommy Vitor]

Not what? Not permitted under the law.

[Jon Favreau]

I love that. That's it. That's all they gave. No, no. Not permitted under the law. What do you guys think Trump will do here? Fucking what can he do?

[Jon Lovett]

Well, I mean, look, Republicans, Republicans believe that Democrats can't fire anyone. And Republicans can fire whoever they want. Right. They believe that federal power rests solely in the executive and that if Congress has tried to limit that, that that's an unconstitutional use of their power. So I'm sure they would want to take this all the way to the Supreme Court if they could. The question is, does he want that fight? I have no fucking idea.

[Tommy Vitor]

I love a scrappy nerd. Yeah, you know, battle back. It feels like there's three options. Trump says, I'm firing you for cause. They battle it out in a conservative court. Trump probably wins that. Second, he could ask, you know, supporters in Congress to put forward legislation putting the Fed fully under his control. I think Mike Lee, Republican Senator, has put forward such a proposal in the past, or the like super authoritarian version is have some treasury staffers go down to his office, pack up his shit, put it on the sidewalk and be like, you're gone.

[Jon Favreau]

I think that my guess on this one is that Trump doesn't do well. So a senior adviser told CNN he's likely to let Powell stay. But, you know, it's Trump world, so who knows what the senior advisers take them at their take it with a grain of salt. I think that the Supreme Court has ruled before that if Congress has created the agency that's independent, the President doesn't have the authority to do this. But we'll see.

[Jon Lovett]

We'll see.

[Jon Favreau]

And I think that Trump probably doesn't want the fight, although, you know, just wait until people are pissed that interest rates haven't come down fast enough, even though he's going to do, you know, another rate cut. And people are still pissed about high mortgage interest rates and you in car loans and all that kind of stuff. And then Trump gets mad. Then, you know, I guess then we'll see.

[Jon Lovett]

I like yes, my Trump like Trump. That's what he did as president. We've lived through this already. He likes to work the refs at the feds. He wants to kind of push them and push them and push them. So we'll see if that gets him what he wants or if he feels like he's done enough or if he wants to go further.

[Tommy Vitor]

But I tank the markets. Right.

[Jon Lovett]

Does he want to have the fight? Does he want to have the fight?

[Jon Favreau]

Right. Right. Knowing that the fight could affect the markets and he doesn't want. He doesn't want that.

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Tommy Vitor]

Little Spoon is great. The only problem you're going to have is not eating it yourself.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, some of those plates that we have, Teddy's starting to eat those too. I looked at them. I'm like I could eat that.

[Tommy Vitor]

Do you see all the snacks that people in our office stole from the kids? Little Spoon sent us a bunch of stuff and all these adults here just chowed down thieves.

[Jon Favreau]

Simplify your kiddos mealtime with 30% off your first order. Go to little spoon.com PSA and enter our code PSA at checkout to get 30% off your first Little spoon order. One position that Trump's trying to exert control over is Republican Senate Majority Leader Rhino. Trump hater Mitch McConnell is stepping down. Not gonna have Mitch to kick around anymore. And going into the weekend, it seemed like the frontrunners to replace him were Southern Dakota's John Thune and Texas John Cornyn, both of whom have served in Senate leadership for quite a while. But then Trump posted over the weekend that whoever becomes leader needs to be willing to adjourn the Senate so that Trump can staff his Cabinet and administration without Senate confirmation, a maneuver known as recess appointments. Thune and Cornyn kind of sort of agreed, but not as enthusiastically as Florida Senator Rick Scott, who had been a dark horse candidate until MAGA World decided that he's their favorite. And the other two are now Rhinos. Scott has now gotten endorsements from Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, RFK Jr. Charlie Kirk, Vivek, the whole gang. The whole gang. Benny Johnson even posted a whip count to pressure Republican senators. So far, Scott has actual Senate endorsements from five senators, including Marco Rubio. Playbook reported this morning that the outside pressure to elect Scott is creating a backlash among Senate Republicans who will be voting for this position via secret ballot. But what do you guys think? Does that. Does the secret ballot save the people who don't want Scott?

[Tommy Vitor]

I don't think so. I mean, we're talking about 100 people. That's what I think.

[Sponsor Announcer]

50, 53 people.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, right.

[Tommy Vitor]

Sorry, you're right. I mean, the 100 senators, I mean, this is not gonna be that hard. Like journalists do whip counts.

[Jon Lovett]

They're gonna ask, who did you vote for?

[Tommy Vitor]

The political.

[Jon Favreau]

That's what's gonna happen. They're gonna haul them on, haul them on tv. You go to front of Sean Hannity, you tell us who you voted for.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. So I don't know, and I don't have any faith in these guys finding a spine because, you know, again, Trump can find someone who's up in 20, 26, float a primary challenge to them, they freak out and move on.

[Jon Favreau]

One of the. One of the Rhino cucks that the mag world went after for his support of Jon Thune, Josh Hawley is getting shit.

[Jon Lovett]

This is all I really like. It's all just sort of like they've decided Rick Scott is better versus these other two. A part of Me at some point thinks like Trump is going to have to brush back the Elon Tucker public kind of wrangling to make clear the decisions are coming from him.

[Tommy Vitor]

I bet it's coming from Don Jr. To those guys. Do you think Elon Musk has. We'll talk about this in a second. Do you think Elon Musk has ever thought about recess appointments before? He tweeted about the other day. I'm guessing zero.

[Jon Lovett]

So he's being fed this for sure.

[Tommy Vitor]

It feels coordinated. I mean, also, could you talk one second about what a failure Mitch McConnell is because he was like, he didn't vote to impeach. He turtled at every Trump demand because he said he wanted to protect the institution of the Senate and protect the party. Well, now your power is getting gutted, buddy.

[Jon Favreau]

Great job. Now your boss is going to be Rick Scott.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, it's because maybe because we did a fair amount of blaming Joe Biden and I'm glad we did that. But Mitch McConnell deciding he's the reason. He is the reason we're here. Because I do think, like, if Nikki Haley had been the candidate or one of these other Republicans have been the candidate, I'm not sure they would have done worse. I think they would probably would have done a lot better. And then we wouldn't be dealing with Donald Trump's bullshit and, and chaos for four years. That is on Mitch McConnell.

[Jon Favreau]

Practical difference between Majority Leader Thune or Cornyn and Majority Leader Scott. I mean, I think it's like, I think with Scott, it's just, well, first of all, Scott's an idiot, but it's also, it would be like there's zero daylight between Rick Scott and Donald Trump. And I don't think there'd be much daylight between John Thune and, or John Cornyn and Donald Trump. But again, when we're talking, like, if we're talking really crazy shit from Donald Trump, like at the extremes, like you could imagine a Thune or a Cornyn not wanting to default on the debt or something like that. I don't know.

[Jon Lovett]

This goes back to, and there's one, one point I just wanted to make, too, because this is why the, the Casey seat matters. But if Casey doesn't eke it out, you can't imagine votes where they let Attilis, A. Collins and A. Murkowski go and bring JD Vance in to break the tie. And then it really is about what the Senate majority is willing to do with his majority. Right. And I do think Rick Scott is for that reason. I think A little bit more sleazy than the other two, which is probably what Tucker and the rest of them have figured out as well.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I mean, look, I think it's the difference between having a leader in the Senate who has respect for the institution and respect for himself and one who does not. And there are probably some very fringe, unqualified people that could get through a Rick Scott led Senate, but not a Jon Thune led Senate. Like a lot of even MAGA types think Laura Loomer is toxic. You know, remember, she was on the plane with Trump at the end. Apparently, according to Tim Alberta's reporting, there were lots of even MAGA people that were like, hey, get her off. She's toxic. Rick Scott recently went on her podcast and defended her. So the maybe some bright side for Democrats is Rick Scott as a repellent figure. He has proven himself to be very bad at politics. And at a time when there is this big populist surge. This is a dude who ran a company that defrauded Medicare. You know, I mean, he's like, he's.

[Jon Favreau]

Like, is he the richest member of the Senate or one of the richest members of the senate?

[Tommy Vitor]

He fined $1.7 billion at the time.

[Jon Lovett]

He also put forward that plan to gut Medicare and Social Security. That became a huge liability that all these Republicans had to run away.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes, I realize that Trump is the billionaire rich guy who doesn't code as a billionaire, but we got Elon, Rick Scott.

[Jon Lovett]

It's getting really lobbyists, Susie Wiles, lot.

[Jon Favreau]

Of oligarchs up there. I do think I'm looking forward to hopefully all of these people eventually knifing each other. The Elons, the Trumps, the Don Juniors, the Rick Scotts. It can't. You can't. The honeymoon can't last forever.

[Tommy Vitor]

You know, Again, Elon jumping on calls with Zelensky and Trump. What is happening?

[Jon Favreau]

Christ, he did such good work at Twitter. Let's talk about the recess appointment thing, because that's. Because maybe it doesn't matter who is the majority leader in the Senate because Trump gets everyone confirmed without the Senate. Anyone want to briefly explain what a recess appointment is and whether Trump can actually staff his Cabinet and confirm judges without the Senate.

[Jon Lovett]

So Reese's appointment. The Constitution allows the president to fill vacancies when the Senate is in recess. Has been something that. What does it mean for the Senate to be in recess? That has been something that's been litigated and controversial. The Obama administration tried to use recess appointments when the Senate was adjourned, but they had technically not been in recess because Republicans were trying to stop the Obama administration from filling vacancies. The court ruled against the Obama administration in that fight. But basically it boils down to this is what you've seen Cornyn and Thune and Rick Scott talking about is basically what happens if Democrats don't allow the Senate to adjourn, keep it in a kind of pro forma session because they don't have enough to break a filibuster to get the Senate out. What will Donald Trump do and what will Senate Republicans do? And the question is, will Senate Republicans use kind of procedural maneuvers to get around this rule to allow Trump to fill Cabinet vacancies, fill lower office vacancies, and potentially even fill judicial vacancies up to and including the Supreme Court.

[Jon Favreau]

Steve Vladek, who is a legal expert, been on strict scrutiny a bunch. He thinks that the motion to adjourn is not subject to filibuster and that you don't need. It doesn't matter what the Democrats want because all you need is a simple majority. You need the Senate majority leader, who in this case would be Thune, Scott, or, or Cornyn to just say, we're in recess, adjourn the Senate, and then Trump can just confirm anyone he wants.

[Jon Lovett]

So what's interesting about that is that may be what they get to, but that's not like even Cornyn was saying, if the Democrats try to keep the Senate in session, we'll make them vote, we'll make them stay.

[Jon Favreau]

That's because he's a rhino cuck.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, I just like, yeah, like maybe let's keep Vladek's fucking peace away from Cornyn. But the filling judicial vacancies thing is scary because there's even the. Vladek was talking about how long those appointments would last. And even if those are appointments that just last until the end of the.

[Jon Favreau]

Next congressional session, because that's what they're supposed to. If you do a judge, it's not. The judge gets a lifetime appointment through recess appointments. They would have to eventually be confirmed once the Senate adjourns, which would be in the end of the next session.

[Tommy Vitor]

Or recess again.

[Jon Lovett]

Or recess appointed again.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. If Donald Trump just keeps winning. Yeah, Right.

[Jon Lovett]

So that would just be the ability of Donald Trump to put anyone on the court without any check whatsoever. And it's.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, as long as the Republicans in power, basically, once a Democrat, once a Democrat, once, once a Democratic Senate or Democratic president came to power, those, all those judges would then be. Have to be.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, of course, I'M just for the next two years.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

I think the thing you need to know is recess appointments made sense when the Senate was first formed and the Senate was not in session for months at a time and people were riding to Washington on horseback. Right. So the President needed to be able to fill slots. That authority has been narrowed over time, as Lovett noted. But I think in practice, what this means is all the people running for Senate Majority Leader, all these Republicans are just handing over like a giant part of their job. They're just taking the knee, bending the knee to Donald Trump on day one, saying, our advising consent authority to vote on your nominees and vet them and hold hearings. We'll happily give it up if you'll be nice to us. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

And you know what? I'll say this is in terms of public outrage or whatever, I think it is a smart thing for them to do, because I do not think, and this is why we are big on getting rid of the filibuster, because it's one that I do not think the public will care about or there'll be backlash to. People don't usually give a shit about process stuff. And so a bunch of people screaming, they're like, oh, the Senate has been adjourned. What are we going to do now? It depends on who he nominates. The scary thing here is the idea that Trump has a 53 or 52 seat Senate Majority and still needs to do all these recess appointments. Like, he should be able to confirm a lot of these folks with just a majority vote, unless he wants, you know, Mike Flynn to come back and some of the real fucking kooks.

[Jon Lovett]

So I. Yeah, so then the question is, right, like, these guys are bending over backwards because they want this job. They are leaving themselves outs when they. Like at least Thune and Cornyn did when they. Yeah, but they are, when they, when they talked about this to basically say how fast they want to move and to lay it at the feet of Democrats, they want to blame Democrats. I think there will be some nominees that Republicans genuinely would like to stop. And then there are some nominees that Republicans don't particularly like, but are more worried about the politics for themselves and would happily allow them to be a recess appointment. That said, we went this, we went through this before. And also Donald Trump can also do a lot of acting positions. Right.

[Jon Favreau]

A lot of options.

[Jon Lovett]

So I, like, I am worried about it too, because I don't. It's not very. It's very disheartening to see these guys immediately Just say, like, no, no, no, the Senate doesn't exist anymore. You know, you can govern by fiat. We're fine. But at the same time, he has a lot of ways to get around this without ever having to get to recess appointments. And I assume that's what they'll want to do.

[Jon Favreau]

They'll want to have the most hanging over.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, it's just instructive. I think that, like, hour one is just filled with these power grabs. Oh, I'm taking the Fed, taking recess appointments. I want all these things. I mean, it sort of confirms a lot of the worst authoritarian concerns about him.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, yeah. Trump also truth that he doesn't want Republicans to approve Biden judicial nominees in a lame duck session before Democrats lose power. Like, okay, there was no danger of that anyway. But he can't control that.

[Jon Lovett]

No, I mean, the only, the only thing he can do right is this. I saw some questions like, will Republicans be absent during this time? And that will allow Democrats to get to some votes quicker. And then there's Joe Manchin, who said he will not confirm anybody that doesn't have Republican support. So this would prevent, basically, there might be some judges that could have garnered some kind of Republican support. Donald Trump saying this makes that nearly impossible. So then it really comes down to what Kyrsten Sinema is willing to do in the last couple of weeks.

[Jon Favreau]

But I also think with Manchin, too, if there's been a bunch of judges in the pipeline that have gotten a vote, and, you know, a lot of them probably may have gotten support from their home state Republican senator, I would bet Manchin counts that as part of support, even if they renege on it. But that's just Trump saying, you know, his bullshit stuff. One other big topic before we get to Congressman Pat Ryan, whether Trump will make good on his threats to use the federal government to investigate, prosecute, or audit his enemies. Peter Nicholas at NBC News had a lengthy story about this today. There was some justifiable hand wringing of folks like former Trump national security official Olivia Troy, who appeared in ads against him. She said she's pretty nervous, worried about, you know, threats to her or her family. Trump, of course, talked a lot about using the military on the enemy within in the latter stages of the campaign and identified Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi as being on that list, whatever that means. Trump, of course, has also said that success would be his revenge. On the other hand, J.D. vance seemed to say on Joe Rogan that they'd be revoking the security clearances of the national Security people who signed a letter in 2020 questioning some of the Hunter Biden laptop stuff. Might not sound like a huge deal, but it would mean a lot of people potentially losing their jobs. The NBC story also quoted Mark zaid, a prominent D.C. lawyer who represented one of Trump's impeachment witnesses and various other anti Trump whistleblow is saying he's advising certain clients to leave the country until it's clear what the new administration is going to do. First of all, just for the sake of everyone's blood pressure, what do we think counts as an enemy? Who do we think counts as an enemy here?

[Tommy Vitor]

Seems like people who turned on him, who he views as directly responsible for something around the 2020 election. I mean, I think if I were Michael Cohen, this former lawyer, I'd be pretty worried about lawfare. But there's a more expansive list, depending on who's in charge of which personnel gets picked. There's this guy, Cash Patel, who was a hardcore MAGA sycophant. He has said on a podcast with Steve Bannon, we are going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. We're going to come after you, whether it's criminally or civilly. We'll figure that out. But, yeah, we're putting you all on notice. Keshe Patel is someone who's been floated for CIA director, FBI director, top national security jobs. Mike Flynn, the former national security adviser, tweeted a threat at Barack Obama.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

Trump has threatened retaliation against Michelle Obama. So we don't know. It's the honest answer.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I just want to take a second. One week ago, we recorded our pod before the election about how hopeful we were. And it's one week later, and we are trying to figure out who exactly constitutes an enemy. And that is terrifying and is. And so, like, I don't know that we can take the blood pressure down just yet. And I don't know that we should. Like, what. What strikes me from what they've been saying is basically going after people's clearances is something they can do pretty easily. And I think one thing we have learned over the years is when you start going after somebody's clearances, it's true of Donald Trump, also true of Hillary Clinton, also true of Joe Biden. You find lapses, you find mistakes. You go through what Olivia Troy has said in every media appearance for a year, you know that they can drum up something to claim she violated some security clearance and revealed some classified information. And so I do think that, like, that alone is pretty terrifying. Right. Because there's I don't know how many hundreds of thousands, millions of people that have cleared. Too many people have clearances, as Tommy's talked about. And that like the chilling effect of this, all these people whose job, either their jobs depend on having a clearance because they're inside the government or they're outside of the government, or they're outside of government now and commentating and afraid of what happens if they speak honestly about Donald Trump for fear that they'll be targeted for abusing their clearance. I think that is just that before you get to some of the more outlandish and wild accusations, is pretty scary.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. There's also a version of this where it's like Trump at his events started making a part of his stump speech, this litany of complaints about Nancy Pelosi and stock trades. So you could imagine him directing DOJ or the SEC to investigate her for insider trading. But there's a softer version that's similar to what you're saying. Love it. Which is like, I don't, you just put out word to all the big law firms in town that anyone who worked for Jack Smith or for the Biden doj, you shouldn't hire them if you want any, you know, business before us, stuff like that. So, like, there's a less authoritarian version that's just sort of intimidation.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Which is still pretty authoritarian. But I know what you're saying, not overt. Because I do think, right. All this could happen about, like the politics for the Trump administration. Right. Because let's pretend that it, let's, let's just stipulate that Trump doesn't have a change of heart and decides to lay off everyone because he's, you know, he's seen God now that he's almost been assassinated twice. Right. But there are political considerations too, for doing this. Right. And if you were the Trump administration, you would probably want to not generate too much sound and furor by going after too many people or too many high profile people at once. Like, I'm just trying to think of various guardrails that could, if we look back and be like, oh, he didn't end up doing all this stuff. Why not? I think it would be because you don't want a backlash from going after high profile people like the Obamas, the Bidens, stuff like that. Or, you know, it's, there's a bunch of people in the Justice Department that are still career officials and that they don't get rid of the Whole Justice Department, and they don't want to do this. I don't know. What do you guys think already, though? Right?

[Jon Lovett]

Like you're just describing the people that have already tried to hold Donald Trump accountable for his malfeasance in the past. Donald Trump is running an ongoing criminal operation. This is going to be the most corrupt administration in history. And so already, just by having this gun on the mantle of threatening people and threatening enemies, even if he doesn't act on it, even if he waits, he is already going to prevent, like the whistleblowers that came forward in the past, they may be much more reluctant to do it this time because think about the people that spoke out against Donald Trump at great personal risk, testified before Congress, testified at impeachment inquiries only to watch him be acquitted and then elected president again. We let those people down specifically, and I don't know who is going to stick their neck out.

[Jon Favreau]

And everyone's ready to toss her over the side because Kamala dared to campaign with her once.

[Jon Lovett]

Right, right, right.

[Jon Favreau]

You know, it's f. I mean, look. No, I totally agree. And it's very. This is all operating within the realm of like, it's bad.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Like, and it could be. It could be. It's like, is it going to be bad? Is it going to be worse? Is it going to be the worse? What do you guys think about potential political backlash? Do you think it wouldn't generate that much, do you think?

[Tommy Vitor]

Depends on who it is. I think it's a person people haven't heard of. It's a one day story. And then that person deals with legal bills and scary meetings with FBI people and no one gives a fuck.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, that's what I worry about.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. I just, you know, we did round after round after round. Like, this is very cynical, but, like, we did these rounds of stories. Like, we did this already. We did this already. Trump going after his enemies or his enemies going after, you know, whistleblowers going after Trump. And it generates tons of headlines, generates tons of attention, it generates hearings, it even generated two impeachments. But ultimately, I think millions upon millions of people dismiss it as noise.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. He is a. He is a convicted felon who's about to be president again. Yep. All right, when we come back from the break, you'll hear Tommy's conversation with Congressman Pat Ryan about how he pulled off a 13 point win in a heavily targeted swing district. But before we do that, in case you missed it, the host of Strict Scrutiny have a new episode breaking down. What last week's election means for the future of the Supreme Court and state courts. We all love Strict because it helps us make sense of how the legal system works without needing a law degree. It's smart and funny focuses on really important issues without feeling like homework. So subscribe to Strict Scrutiny wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube when we come back. Pat Ryan Pod Save America is brought to you by prizepix. Prizepix is the best place to get real money sports action. With over 10 million members and billions of dollars in awarded winnings, Prizepix has made daily fantasy sports accessible to all. You just pick more or less on at least two players for a shot to win up to 100 times your cash. Run your game all season long on Prize Picks. It's also the best way to get action on sports in over 30 states, including California, Florida, Georgia and Texas. Plus, Prizepix is the only real money daily fantasy platform with an injury insurance policy so that your lineups stay in play even if one of your players gets injured. If your player leaves in the first half and doesn't return, Prize Picks keeps your lineup live all right, here's what.

[Tommy Vitor]

I'm going to do this week. Okay, this hurts me because I despise both of these teams. But we got jaden Daniels over 241 pass yards. I feel like that's going to happen. And then Derek Henry over 83 and a half rush yards. So look again. I hate the Commanders. I hate Baltimore. No offense.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean offense.

[Tommy Vitor]

I don't really care at all of you listening. I'm a Patriots fan and I'm an asshole and I endorse that. But prizepex is super fun because it makes you care about games you wouldn't otherwise watch.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, best of luck. We'll check in with you to see how you did.

[Tommy Vitor]

Thank you.

[Jon Favreau]

Download the app today and use Code Cricket to get $50 instantly after you play your first five dollar lineup. That's code CRICKET to get $50 instantly after you Play your first five dollar lineup. Prize picks run your game. Pod Save America is brought to you by GiveWell. You like to optimize things. You've chosen the perfect credit card to maximize your travel points. Shouldn't you handle your charitable giving the same way? GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. Over 100,000 donors have used GiveWell to donate more than $2 billion. Rigorous evidence suggests that these donations will save over 200,000 lives and improve the lives of millions more. GiveWell wants as many donors as possible to make informed decisions about high impact giving. You can find all their research and recommendations on their site for free. You can also make tax deductible donations to their recommended funds or charities and GiveWell doesn't take a cut. Go to givewell.org to find out more or make a donation, select podcast and enter Pod Save America at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Again, that's givewell.org to donate or to find more.

[Sponsor Announcer]

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[Tommy Vitor]

After this brutal election, we are trying to talk with as many smart people as possible about what the hell happened and how we can fix it. That is why we invited Congressman Pat Ryan to the show today to discuss his experience running and winning overwhelmingly, I should say, in a swing district in New York. Congressman, great to see you again.

[Pat Ryan]

Thank you guys for having me. I think it was after another election win over two years ago you had me on and so it's awesome to Be with you. I'm a huge fan and especially in this moment, appreciate that we're all going to do some soul searching here.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, it's soul searching time. And I do want to note that we schedule this interview around your kids nap time, which is how you know, Pat is a real one and not one of those elites that we're all mad at. So you represent the 18th district of New York. Joe Biden won the 18th by, I think, 8 points in 2020. Kamala Harris only won it by 2 points this cycle, while you won it by about 13 points. One of the counties you represent, Orange county, swung nine points to the right at the presidential level, but you won Orange county by seven points. So obviously you were doing something right that the presidential level was not. But just to start, can you give us a sense of the makeup of your district and who you think your voters are?

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah, I mean, so we're an hour and a half to two hours straight north of New York City. And it's a mix of. The southern part of my district is essentially the northern suburbs of New York City. You have nypd, cops, fdny, firefighters, a lot of folks that work in and out of New York City. And then the further north you go, you have more, more exurban, more rural, a lot of agricultural communities and farms. But we also have, along the sort of tight corridor of New York City, some very affluent cities like Beacon and Rhinebeck that are highly educated and quite progressive. And then we have nine universities, from Bard and to West Point, my alma mater. So it's a, I think, a good bellwether of the complexity of our great country, you know, and, and, you know, it's about slight, slight Democratic enrollment advantage, but a huge number of independent, you know, not party aligned voters.

[Sponsor Announcer]

That's interesting.

[Tommy Vitor]

And you wrote this really interesting thread about how, you know, you feel like you were able to win in this, you know, eclectic makeup, swingy district in this political climate that was obviously terrible for Democrats. And I do want to get to that in a second. But first, I mean, I'm curious what you make of why Biden and then Harris lost so much support from 2020 to 2024, both in your district, but also across New York state. Because, you know, on election Day, it was less surprising to me to see Trump win a bunch of highly contested, swingy battleground states, but it was very surprising to see Trump make huge gains in non battleground states like New York and New Jersey. And I'm curious what you made of that.

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah, and it's a little more complicated. In New York, I think there's a huge difference between, like, the New York City numbers and results versus actually these battleground House districts, which we can talk about that if you want. But at the macro level, I think it's like there's two pieces. There's. There's substance and style. On the substance, we. We just completely missed where people are. Everybody. Not. Not Democrats, Republicans, not Latinos or white, not young or old. Like, everybody is dealing with this essentially existential affordability crisis. And if we weren't talking about that every day, I just think you weren't, you know, connecting with people around their major, major pain point that they've been dealing with for many years now. On the style, too, though, I think, like, I mean, I really prioritize. You talked about our Orange county numbers, which I'm super proud of. We had. We had lost this county by 7 or 8% two years ago. We won it by 7 or 8%. And because we just worked the district like, I prioritized going to every single community there, especially the. The redder, more trumpy communities. We did this mobile cares van, which my staff made fun of me for. But it's like we went to all 82 of our towns over and over and over and did constituent services and did listening sessions and just really showed up and. And list, like, truly listened and then did everything we could to deliver and really show the fight like, that we were fighting for people. So I think, like anything, it's a combo of substance and style. And neither alone are both necessary. Neither alone are sufficient.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, And I want to get into both the substance and the style debates and also just be honest and acknowledge that, you know, kind of some of the tactics available to you as a member of Congress representing a district are not available to Kamala Harris.

[Jon Favreau]

Right.

[Tommy Vitor]

Because she can't go to every county or every part of the country all the time. But in your Twitter thread, you wrote, quote, it's not enough to throw these seemingly disparate policies at people. We must articulate a unifying principle and clearly tell folks who's at fault. For me, it was freedom and patriotism, and the fault lies with the same elites in both parties who have run this country for too long. First question, can you unpack the kind of freedom frame a little bit so voters know what that means or so listeners know what that means? And then second, I mean, again, just in fairness to Kamala Harris, like, do you think she could credibly deliver that kind of message after spending four years as the vp.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Pat Ryan]

And I was feeling pretty feisty and that. So forgive that. I think we're all feisty right now and some other efforts.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Pat Ryan]

But yeah, I mean, to me, I'm, I've been obsessed with, especially my district being the home to fdr and spent a lot of time in his presidential library. Got to hold his for freedom speech in my physical hands, which as a huge nerd was awesome and very impactful for me. And I think that this, in fact, I know freedom is the most unifying American value at a values level. Setting aside politics. And we could debate what the, what freedom means, but if we don't start from a place of like, common value alignment where people can feel they have a home to come to, even if they don't agree on every single component, were just already, I think, hurt out of the gate. And so I talked about reproductive freedom, of course, given everything that happened in the last few years. I talked obsessively about economic freedom and echoing FDR's freedom from want, talked about freedom to breathe clean air and water, freedom from gun violence, a lot of other freedoms. And we really, I think, gave a place for people to feel like they could come out and vote for something instead of just against something. I know all this feels like a little cliche, obviously, but we really felt that on the ground. And I think you're right. It's obviously much harder at a presidential national race to do constituent services in the way we did. But I think we have to think about that. It's a team sport, right? We have a, we have a team, we have a brand. And if we all work together, you can see people should know, oh, hey, that Democrat who's a representative, like, did a pretty good job. And I can kind of project that other Democrats would share that sort of ethos and understanding and work ethic. And I think we have a lot of room to improve, clearly in that area. But I also just think it's a message discipline thing. I mean, we were just, I was obsessed with affordability and costs and talking about all the dynamics and, and localizing it with specificity. Like, the single biggest issue I talked about was a battle with one of our local utility monopolies that had totally screwed up their billing. Like thousands of people were irreparably harmed, savings accounts wiped out by autopay. And we actually helped people with that in a very tangible, visceral way. And I think those things matter and also show our willingness to take on big corporate power, but in a way that's not just bumper sticker, but real. Right, right.

[Tommy Vitor]

Well, staying on this economic piece and speaking of spicy statements, I'm sure you saw Bernie Sanders statement, the Democrats have abandoned the working class. I read that statement from Bernie and on some level felt like, yeah, he has a point. Democrats need to do more to deliver for working people in this country. But on the other hand, we all know the realities that like Biden worked with Bernie to do a bunch of populist stuff, including the child tax credit capping, insulin at 35 bucks, support for unions. The list goes on. And voters decided, no, we're going to vote against the Democrats who did the populist stuff and for the Republicans that fought against those accomplishments and voted against those accomplishments similarly, like they're like they saw Joe Biden, you know, walk on a picket line with unions and they voted for Donald Trump who says he's going to put Elon Musk, a guy who once said, I disagree with the idea of unions in charge of like government efficiency or spending. And I'm wondering how you make sense of that disconnect.

[Pat Ryan]

I still think it's a little bit, particularly for voters feeling torn or paying less attention because of all the other pressures in their lives. It's still a little bit too policy deep and not enough sort of upstream of politics, values level alignment first. And I just think we lost a group of people around not really connecting with them. Whether that's the in person ways that I talked about at a congressional House level, whether it's just actually what we choose to focus on from a message discipline perspective and what we don't choose to necessarily focus on. But I think you gotta start with the people trusting that you're for them. And if they don't think you're for them, all the rest just doesn't matter. I mean, so it's like what can you do to really show, not tell, but show that you're for people. And in a lot of cases in my district, that was like literally helping them recover money from the IRS or getting them a passport or we have to figure out how to make government actually deliver for people, even if in small ways to start from a place of trust, then you can work on the bigger complex, you know, pieces, whether that's addressing climate change, infrastructure, economic inequality. Like we can't expect people to trust us on those. If we can't just like actually do the blocking and tackling well and show up over and over. And I think it's like there's no shortcut here. We just actually have to rebuild, ground up.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I mean, on this cultural front, you know, Andrew Breitbart, I think, famously said that politics is downstream of culture. Democrats are soul searching and attacking each other on that front too. Some people say Democrats are elitist and annoying and that's why we lost. Others blame COVID policies and lockdowns and masking. Others say Democrats are too focused on identity politics. Your colleague Seth Moulton said Democrats were too worried about offending people and not honest about voter concerns about transgender athletes and youth sports. Do any of those buckets or this broader critique seem relevant to you based on the conversations you had with real voters?

[Pat Ryan]

I'm not like a big finger pointing, negative person. Obviously it was a devastating loss, not just politically, but I would argue morally in the country to have Trump in the White House again. And I say this as somebody who, you know, a lot of people voted for him and voted for me in my district mathematically. But I've always been very clear and upfront about who he is and I think the threats and risks and the harm that he will do viscerally. But I just think we gotta move forward. I mean, we just have to take the energy we have and talk about how to do better rather than the finger pointing and the blame. And to me, it's an actual opportunity. I know that maybe it's a little too soon to say that, but I'm trying to be glass half full and to really lean into something. I think unfortunately in the next two years we will see Trump's true colors again, as we saw for four years. And people are going to need a place to come to after they really remember and see Trump 2.0 on steroids. And it's, we have the moment now to build that. And to me, it is a patriotic place that we have to create and I would argue almost like a patriotic populism. I'm still thinking about the language here. Don't hold me to that one. But I think like, that is the alternative. Trump is a destructive populist. We need to be, I believe, constructive and unifying and positive while still being clear about the macroeconomic inequality and the immediate economic pain around affordability people are dealing with.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, the PP part. Well, there we go.

[Pat Ryan]

Year old would agree with that.

[Tommy Vitor]

I tell you would love that. Well, let me try it this way. Why do you think Democrats got coded as elite while Donald Trump, a guy who is like famous for being rich and elitist and famous and a former president?

[Pat Ryan]

Because he's just real and no, I don't know If I'm allowed to curse, just no bullshit, like, just be straight up and tell me if I can't curse because I'm a pretty kind of a guy, curse away. I just, I mean, there's so many already anecdotes coming out from this campaign, and we've all heard them for years. Like, I don't like a lot of things. I mean, I literally read a quote today. If someone views him as an authoritarian, but at least he's, you know, real or something. I'm paraphrasing, but like, it is, again, connecting on that level of, are you for us or are you part of the elites in both parties and in institutions of business and in other places in this country that have largely, like, failed to help people with the pressure they're. They're dealing with? And. And he is the one person who. Or one of the few who has really understood that, I think at a visceral level and. And maximized on it, obviously, and we've got to have answer to it. That is not destructive. But it's just, I think, just be real. Like, I talk all the time. Especially, I think there's this whole conversation about young men. I talk obsessively about a more healthy, patriotic masculinity that isn't selfish, but provides a place for all people, but especially young people and young men, to feel like they can be part of something bigger than themselves. I talk to a lot of college age and high school age young people in my district, and they're all feeling like they just don't have a place and we need to. I'm obsessed with the national service and going to be working on national service legislation because I think that's one of the ways we can help get at this.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, just a broader sense of community and being part of something bigger.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Pat Ryan]

I think people are desperate for it. And you think about that generation. They just essentially haven't seen it in our politics or in our country in very many ways. And I think the Democratic Party can and must be the place that offers that.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. There's an ongoing debate as well about tactical decisions by the Harris campaign. We had a debate on this show about whether, you know, it was a mistake for Kamala Harris to focus at the end of the campaign on Trump's authoritarian instincts and calling him a fascist versus talking about the economy. Now that we have the election results, I feel even more confident that talking about the fascism piece was a mistake, but much less confident that changing that message would have made almost any difference. The related debate Is like whether it was a mistake to campaign with Liz Cheney versus, I don't know, doing some other sort of economic focused event. Do you think any of those tactical decisions mattered? With only 100 days to go, how do you make sense of the broader headwinds that Kamala Harris was facing? The, you know, the hangover, frustration at Joe Biden versus what, you know, she could have actually controlled?

[Pat Ryan]

I think with the time she. They had and she had and the constraints to your point, structurally, they did. I think they did a very good job. I mean, just to give you a sense, like in our district, President Biden in June, before his debate performance, was down 8% in a district he had won by 8%. So like a massive underwater point. And then Kamala, Vice President Harris won it by about 2%. So you, you think in a few months, her entering the race moved our party like 10 points, which is remarkable. In a few months in a battleground district, I, I think we can all. I mean, my campaign. Lots of things we tactically would. Could improve on, but I think they did a very good job. And it's, It's. We gotta zoom out and have the more macro conversation we've, you know, we're having up to this point, in my view, in terms of substance and style on connecting with the economic pain people are feeling and giving them both short and long term hope again, that somebody gets it and is on the case.

[Tommy Vitor]

Just on this cultural piece. I mean, we're. We're about the same age, you know, like early 40s, some might say mid for. You served in the military? All subjective. You served in the military? I certainly did not. But, like, I don't know. I grew up kind of bro y. Like, I played football and lacrosse and read barstool sports and loved the Patriots and the Red Sox, you know what I mean? And it feels like guys who look like us, like sort of white men, are fleeing the Democratic Party. They think we're annoying. They think we care about cancel culture. I don't know, maybe they hated the, The COVID lockdown rules. I mean, when you're talking to younger men, what do you hear from them about why they think Democrats are now lame? Because we should be honest. They think we're lame. They think it's lame to be a Democrat. They think Trump is cool and kind of rock and roll and counterculture and we just lost that mantle.

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah, I think it's. I have a lot of. I'm part of a big Irish Catholic family, so I talk with a lot of my Younger cousins, I'm the oldest of like 20 something, we've all lost count cousins. So I talk with them a lot as a little sort of focus group that they don't know they're participating in. And yeah, it is cultural, but it's more the things they've seen in the world. They've watched of our two longest wars, a financial meltdown, Trump dominating and the whole tenor and tone of our politics ushered in by Trump, but now spread far and wide. And like, I just think they're deeply, understandably turned off, distrustful. You look at voter registration of young people, they're largely registering unaffiliated, more than either party. And anyone who presents as counter to that and an agent of change and disruption is cool. I mean, I think I get that and I've had a very like, to your point, like more traditional, you know, whatever you want to, whatever you want to call it. Like went to West Point, served in the army, did a small business and now doing government stuff. And I think that probably they see as lame too. I would, but I can at least come in and say, look like I love this country and I put my life on the line for this country and I still think we have.

[Jon Lovett]

Were.

[Pat Ryan]

Better than anyone else by far. And I, you know, like, let's start there. And I think we've been able to by appealing to some higher order patriotism. Actually. I still think we're a deeply patriotic country and we were get, we're, we're, we're getting there, but we didn't quite have enough time to make that far and widely known.

[Tommy Vitor]

I really worry about the masculinity piece too. I mean the fact that like Andrew Tate is this dominating force, especially among teenagers, is really worrisome. He's one of the most like noxious, loathsome people on the Internet, on the planet. But also, you know, even just saying like, we need a more different conversation about masculinity. Like I imagine me today going to me 20 and being like, hey son, you want to have a conversation about masculinity? I'd be like, get the fuck away from you dork. Like, what are you talking about? You know?

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah, I think, yeah, I mean our most popular ad, which we put millions of dollars behind in this campaign in the New York City media market, was basically like me playing building legos with my 5 year old, reading with my 2 year old, like wrestling them on the floor, talking about how I was a different kind of Democrat, not necessarily on a policy level, but on that values and cultural level. And I've done a few campaigns and a lot of ads, I've never seen or felt this kind of reaction to this ad where it was actually pretty war and pretty positive, but felt I just think people are like, thank you for like just not having negative, nasty ads all the time. And I think people are actually searching for a healthier more. Again, I think positive and I would argue patriotic alternative on masculinity. We have to offer it and I think we can because Trump's is so selfish and so ultimately isolating. I actually think for a lot of.

[Tommy Vitor]

People, yeah, I agree with that. And he's just such a whiner. That's what I don't get, why these young guys like him. Anyone who whined like that on the pickup basketball court, that he really won the whole time, you would hate that guy. But somehow he makes it work. On the foreign policy front, I mean, only 4% of voters in exit polls said foreign policy was their top voting concern, but Trump won those voters with 55%. There's some specific issues that clearly impacted the race. Gaza and Ukraine. But bigger picture, the thing that's worrying to me is this sentiment now that Democrats are the pro war party and that Trump is anti war. And my friend Peter Hamby, who writes for Puck and does a show on Snapchat, went to a bunch of college campuses and found kids that were genuinely worried about getting drafted, which obviously is not ever going to happen. But the fact that that was a concern that came up over and over again, I think is notable.

[Sponsor Announcer]

So, you know, you went to West.

[Tommy Vitor]

Point, you served two tours in Iraq, you spent time in Afghanistan, you're on the Armed Services Committee now.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Where do we go wrong?

[Tommy Vitor]

And how do you think Democrats get back this anti war mantle?

[Pat Ryan]

Well, I think I actually, I don't mean to be so dark here, but I actually think those kids aren't wrong. I mean, I think people intuitively understand whether you're a young person or someone who maybe even lived through and remembers World War II, which thankfully, we still have a good number of those folks around. Like, people get it and are way smarter than folks give them credit for. They understand how dangerous, volatile, divided and increasingly authoritarian the world is. And in those moments, again, it's the temptation is to sort of reach for a strongman figure. And I think we have both for wonky national security and foreign policy reasons, need to find our voice in a way that projects more direction and strength. And I hate to. You may never have me on the show again by quoting Ronald Reagan, in terms of, you know, one of his more famous or infamous piece through strength. But I do think that is kind of where the world is, as I think about it. And strength needs to be defined differently and more broadly, and not just militarily, but economically, technologically, intellectually, and academically. And there's a real opportunity for us, I think, to rally the American people behind. And, again, this view of the world is dangerous. We're seeing China, Iran, Russia, North Korea now all kind of coming together in ways that are concerning. We need to lean in in order to prevent war, and I think that's how we need to be talking about it more, which we don't, in order to prevent war, really reinvest and come together as a country. It might be the last sort of hope, I think, to bring us back together in a way that averts a World War 3 scenario.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of truth to that, and I do think people really vote on base feelings. Right. Strong, weak, et cetera. But I also heard so many focus groups and anecdotal pieces of evidence where young people, in particular, of all races, genders, et cetera, were like, why are we sending all this money to Ukraine? That's crazy and stupid. I want to spend that here. You know, and that's just. It's a long explanation to explain why. And that kind of nativism, I think, was powerful for Trump and very effective.

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah, I mean, I think there is a tight case to be made in terms of, I mean, essentially dewonkifying deterrence. I'm not saying I'm the expert at this, but I think we have to be making that case less about supporting Ukraine as much as I support Ukraine, more about stopping Putin and stopping, you know, the growing cooperation with these other parties. And it's a fine line that I actually really wrestle with this idea of, like, you don't want to create a boogeyman to the degree that then creates the inevitable security dilemma and escalates into war. But at the same time, I think not being clear about who the threats are and what the risks are leaves a vacuum for people to misinterpret why we're doing the things we're doing. And they're like, well, it just feels like we're treading water and holding the status quo, and in fact, we're not. And I actually think the Biden administration has got not everything, but a lot right in this regard, and. And yet no one feels that way, obviously, to your. To your points. And again, it comes back to a us and them. And I just don't think we've clarified like, what is the answer. Our equivalent to America first has to be, again, a more. A less selfish and more unifying view of reinvesting here at home to keep us safe and strong abroad.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I think that's right. I also think people saw, I mean, I think that voters really did not like and rejected was hearing about the United States sending billions and billions of billions of dollars worth of weapons to be used in Gaza, only to see both the horrific, you know, civilian cost of that war, but also to see it metastasize and spread into Lebanon in these closing months before the election. I don't think those images did the Biden administration and then Kamala Harris.

[Pat Ryan]

No.

[Tommy Vitor]

Any good. Last question for you. So, you know, it looks like Democrats are likely to be in the minority in the House, which will give Donald Trump total control of the US Government. We know that means all committees are Republican. Dems will not have subpoena power. But what do you think the role. What can Democrats do from the opposition in the House? From your perspective, what do you want to accomplish in the next two years? Small question.

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah. Drinking now. I mean, look, I almost feel foolish saying it given what happened between 2016 and 2020, but I do think there are a few areas where doing my job as a representative, like maybe there's some space to work with the administration to relieve some of the particular economic pain and pressure we've talked about. But I think that's very, very unlikely just given both past performance and all the promises he's made in Project 2025. And I mean, I believe that is the plan 100%. And so we got to be manning the ramparts and holding the line. And I think we're gonna have to get real creative and scrappy and be willing to really shake things up in terms of the tactics in terms of communication. And like, if we're using the current powers of the institutions, we're gonna get rolled. We need to be much smarter using new communication styles, using. You know, I don't have the answers yet, but I think we gotta put our heads together and think about. You know, I actually thought it was pretty cool. I haven't even read it yet, but one of my colleagues who unfortunately got gerrymandered out, Wiley Nichol, just wrote an op ed in the Washington Post saying we should have a shadow cabinet and start operating the way they do in, in the UK Like, I don't know if that works, but like we need to be doing things differently, understanding Trump is on the march towards an authoritarian, if not fascist, way of governing, and that requires us to really step up our game.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, that's a good point. Well, Congressman Ryan, thank you so much for doing the show. Everyone should check out your Twitter thread because there's even more really interesting ideas and arguments in there for what Dems got right and what we got wrong. And I appreciate you being willing to talk to us today and just generally speak candidly about it, because I know it's not easy to criticize your friend sometimes, but it's important. So thanks.

[Pat Ryan]

Yeah, no, thanks for having me. It is Veterans Day, so I'd be remiss not thanking all those that have served. My fellow veterans of all generations.

[Jon Favreau]

That's our show for today. One last item. Did you notice? Love it. You want to talk about this?

[Jon Lovett]

Oh, yes. The idea has been floated that Joe Biden has the opportunity to do something awesome, and that is to resign and make Kamala Harris the nation's first female president. And this is an idea that I already have endorsed on Love it or Leave It.

[Jon Favreau]

You have?

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, as a joke.

[Jon Favreau]

This came from Jamal Simmons.

[Jon Lovett]

Oh, yeah. Jamal Simmons said this.

[Jon Favreau]

Kamala Harris, former communications director, for those of our listeners who don't know.

[Jon Lovett]

And I think it's beautiful, and I think he should do it.

[Jon Favreau]

Really?

[Jon Lovett]

No. Okay, look, I think that.

[Jon Favreau]

I think it's. I think it's treating the presidency like it's a fucking participation trophy.

[Jon Lovett]

No, obviously. Obviously. Obviously. I just think.

[Jon Favreau]

Look, I would be so offended if I was Kamala Harris.

[Jon Lovett]

Yes. I don't. I don't think. I don't think. I obviously don't think that Joe Biden should resign in order to make Kamala Harris a good job President. Way to go, CIS president. But I will say that if given how hard he was struggling on the sand. No, I gotta not do this.

[Tommy Vitor]

I just imagine after four years of us pointing out that Donald Trump wouldn't accept the results of an election, if Joe Biden appointed the person who just lost to the presidency, what message would that send? I know it's temporary. I know it's a different scenario. But can you imagine what the Republicans would say?

[Jon Favreau]

But, Tommy, isn't it true that there are 15 million missing votes out there?

[Jon Lovett]

15 million missing votes.

[Jon Favreau]

Just everyone. Just. So we should just knock it down. It's. There's some stuff going around, even some people who are like, reporters, former reporters. I've seen this a couple places that like, oh, my gosh, you got like 15 million less votes and blah, blah, blah. And I've heard it from like people out and out in the world. Just so you guys all know, like the turnout numbers, they have not finished counting California yet. And when you do the projections, New York Times, Nate Silver, whoever it may be, they think that Trump's gonna win by 1.5% and that Kamala Harris probably ends up with 5 million less fewer votes than Joe Biden. And Donald Trump ends up with 4 million more votes than he got in 2020. And by the way, turnout almost the same little, slightly less in 2024 probably is going to end up at like 2,3 million votes less.

[Jon Lovett]

Yes. Somebody sent me the conspiracy theory, texted me and said, what do you think?

[Jon Favreau]

Is there just one or they're a couple?

[Jon Lovett]

And I said, who sent you this? And they said, a very famous person. And I said, tell that person to go for a walk outside. And it actually, like, for the same reason. No, the election wasn't stolen in 2020. No, there's not some conspiracy to steal 15 million votes this time. Actually another reason that Donald Trump may have some trouble becoming the authoritarian he wants to become. America is big and complicated with various levels of government that make command and control of this big messy country incredibly difficult, if not completely impossible. And like, like, that's why our elections are more secure. That's why the conspiracy theories are fucking stupid. And that is my hope as well.

[Jon Favreau]

But if you want to find those 15 million missing votes, I bet they're in the same place as that 13th key.

[Jon Lovett]

They would have to print a lot. If Kamala Harris did become president over the next month, they would have to reprint a lot of hats to Republicans. It would be expensive.

[Tommy Vitor]

That piece of this is very funny.

[Jon Lovett]

Just for a day. Just for a day.

[Jon Favreau]

That's cool. Now you know what? Now I flipped. Now I'm for it. That's our show for today. I'll be back on Wednesday with a new episode featuring guest host Ezra Klein. Wow, just the two of us and Nancy Pelosi. No, we're going to talk about all the latest and where Democrats go from here. So talk to you then. If you want to get ad free episodes, exclusive content and more, consider joining our friends of the POD subscription [e-mail] friends. And if you're already doom scrolling, don't forget to follow us at podsave America on Instagram, Twitter and YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content and more. Plus, if you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping us a review to help boost this episode or spice up the group chat by sharing it with friends, family or randos. You want in on this conversation? Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our producers are David Toledo and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Faris Safaree, Reed Churlin is our executive editor and Adrian Hill is our executive producer. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer Madeline Herringer is our head of news and programming. Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Andy Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Phoebe Bradford, Joseph Dutra, Ben Hethcote, Mia Kelman, Molly Lobel, Kirill Pelaviev and David Toles.

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[Tommy Vitor]

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[Jon Favreau]

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