
Right-wing influencers and conspiracy theorists lose it over a Justice Department memo that says there’s no evidence Jeffrey Epstein had a “client list” or blackmailed his associates. Criticism of DOGE’s cuts to the National Weather Service resurface after catastrophic floods hit central Texas. In a Fourth of July ceremony, President Trump signs his disastrous economic plan into law. Jon and Tommy break down the Medicaid cuts, ICE funding, and the highly unusual tax breaks that made it into the final “Big Beautiful Bill.” Then they check in on Elon Musk’s growing threat to launch a new political party, and they discuss Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s allegation that he was tortured in El Salvador’s CECOT megaprison.
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Jon Favreau
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Jon Favreau
Foreign welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
Tommy Vitor
I'm Tommy Vitor.
Jon Favreau
Love it is off this week, so guess we're gonna do our best to fill the 30 or 40 minutes of insight we typically get from him.
Tommy Vitor
Wow. Okay. Apparently you did like his joke about your your Twitter habits when you were on vacation.
Jon Favreau
Look, it was a big piece of legislation.
Tommy Vitor
It was, it was a big beautiful.
Jon Favreau
And my tweets did not matter as we as we have found out at all they did nothing. Fortunately, we do have a lot to cover. Today we're going to talk about what's next for Trump's big shitty bill. Now that it's a big shitty law. Talk about ice becoming bigger than most countries militaries as part of the bill. Elon Musk's New America Party can't wait to join. Launched on July 4th weekend.
Tommy Vitor
It's like the Innovation Party.
Jon Favreau
It is deep cut. I was wondering who would make the Innovation Party joke First it was you and MAGA world turning on Trump over the latest Jeffrey Epstein revelations or lack thereof I guess. So we will dig into that as well. We do want to start with the horrific floods that hit Kerr County, Texas over the weekend, which is a county just northwest of San Antonio. As of late Monday afternoon, at least 89 people have died, including 27 campers and staff from Camp mystic, which is an all girls summer camp that was essentially washed away by the floods. Many more people are missing as of right now. It has been absolutely just gut wrenching to see photos of these 8 and 9 year old girls who died, to hear their parents talk about them, to hear from the parents who are like just still at this moment looking for their kids. It's just an unimaginable tragedy. This is now one of the deadliest floods of the last century. And this area of Texas in particular is one of the most dangerous regions in the country for floods. So naturally there have been plenty of questions about whether anything could have been done to get people out of harm's way. Earlier, the Trump administration is getting criticism for the doge cuts to the national weather service, the NWS, where 10% of the staff has been fired, including meteorologists. And two of the offices that now have vacancies are in the area of the flood. The NWS has also had to delay weather balloon launches across the country and those help forecast storms. All that said, the National Weather Service did issue timely warnings about this flood. The problem was that those warnings didn't get to the people who were in danger. This is known as the last mile problem. Apparently Kerr county opted against investing in a flood warning System back in 2017 because they thought it was too expensive. So Trump responded to some of the criticism over the weekend when he took questions from reporters at his golf club in New Jersey. Here he is, accompanied by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
David Plouffe
Are you investigating whether some of the cuts to the federal government left key.
Jon Favreau
Vacancies at the National Weather Service or the emergency coordination?
Donald Trump
They did not. They did. I'll tell you, you look at that, that what a situation that all is. And that was really the Biden set up. That was not our setup. But I wouldn't blame Biden for it either. I would just say this is a hundred year catastrophe and it's just so horrible to watch.
David Plouffe
In light of the floods. Do you think that the federal government needs to hire back any of the meteorologists who were fired in the last few months?
Donald Trump
I wouldn't know that. I really wouldn't.
Jon Favreau
I would think not still planning to phase out fema?
Donald Trump
Well, FEMA is something we can talk about later, but right now they're busy working.
Jon Favreau
What the fuck is the water situation? The water setup.
Tommy Vitor
I could blame Biden, but I won't blame Biden. But I just did blame Biden for the water setup. I just, I found the political fighting over this pretty tough to stomach or really engage with. Like, it's just, you know, you watch these interviews with some dad combing through like this rubble, trying to find his kids, and it's just like, it's sort of all you can think about. It does sound like what you said was right, like the last mile problem, getting the warnings to people who are in rural areas, no cell service in the middle of the night. Like that does sound like that was the broader problem than predicting the flood. But I thought the letters in or the questions in Chuck Schumer's letter were appropriate and important.
Jon Favreau
Like we should know, we should say that on Monday morning, Chuck Schumer sent a letter to the inspector general at the Commerce Department demanding an investigation. So that's the, that's the letter? Yeah, like we need to asking in.
Tommy Vitor
The letter basically if cuts to National Weather Service slowed down things or put people at risk. And I think that's an important question going forward. I could have done without the like instant, you know, leap to blame. Name your political opponent for this tragedy on Twitter. I think that stuff's just gross.
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I mean, I think. Well, I think the really gross stuff was I saw some people be like, well, Texas, you voted for Trump. And this is what you get. And you're like, we're Americans.
Tommy Vitor
We're all Americans. Don't do that shit.
Jon Favreau
I think that two things can be true. The DOGE cuts to the National Weather Service in this case had nothing to do with the tragedy. You know, it seems like the National Weather Service, like I said, did send out a timely warning. It just didn't get to people. And that's, you know, not the Trump administration saying that that's independent meteorologists and experts have all said this, but it is true that we are now facing worsening climate disasters. That's just a fact. Whether or not you believe in climate change, it's still a fact. You can look at the record, it's recorded now, which is the hurricanes, floods, droughts, you name it, they've been more frequent and more intense over the last couple decades. And so now, you know, we need to figure out what to do about that. And there's two things you can do about it, aside from efforts to combat climate change. But in the immediate, you can figure out how to prepare for these disasters and you can figure out how to respond to them. On the preparation side, you know, you cut 10% of the national weather staff. Much of meteorologists were not predicting. Then you have meteorologists way before this hit saying, like, we're about to head into a hurricane season where we can't predict storms as well, and we're all flying blind here. It's, like, really bad. So it's horrible that they made those cuts. And then on the other end, you know, Trump had been talking about getting rid of fema. They installed a director at FEMA who told the FEMA staff when he got there that he wasn't aware that we had a hurricane season.
Tommy Vitor
That seems bad. Yeah, we probably should have thought twice about shooting down that Chinese balloon. Could have used that thing.
Jon Favreau
That's right.
Tommy Vitor
You know what I'm saying? No. Back in February, the Trump administration fired hundreds of FEMA employees and they offered buyouts to hundreds more, maybe thousands more. So, yeah, they're definitely gutting fema. They also rescinded grants that are designed to help communities prepare for climate disasters, which seems like a very bad idea. They disbanded all these FEMA advisory councils made up of actual professionals who understand disaster relief. And then they put in place new politicized entities in their stead. And to your point, yet Trump now wants to get rid of FEMA after hurricane season. He says, you know, you'll disperse those responsibilities to the states, but I have no confidence that'll happen.
Jon Favreau
And states don't have the same money, they don't have the same resources to.
Tommy Vitor
Do, and they have finite resources. So, you know, they're going to put it to the things that are the most acute political need for whoever that leader is. And then, great. The big, big picture stuff is we're pulling out of Paris climate accords. We are gutting tax credits for renewable energy in this big, beautiful bill where Trump's doing everything he can to prioritize oil and gas and coal, which will exacerbate climate change. And there's. Republicans can't seem to agree on the fact that this is exacerbating climate disasters in their communities as well.
Jon Favreau
And it's just. It's hard because when Doge was doing what Doge did, you know, there were almost too many cuts, too many stories, too many horrors to focus on any one of them. But I remember the National Weather Service cuts. I remember thinking that was crazy.
Tommy Vitor
It seemed crazy.
Jon Favreau
And we didn't really talk much about it at the time. And there was a bunch of, like, meteorologists who are usually not partisan types, like local meteorologists, some of them during their broadcast being like, hey, by the way, usually I can tell you there's this guy in Florida who's like, usually I can tell you when the hurricane's gonna turn, if it's gonna turn. I actually can't tell you now. We don't know. And so, again, you don't wanna talk about it in the midst of tragedy, especially if it doesn't directly have to do with the tragedy. But a couple weeks from now are people who's gonna be talking about the National Weather Service cuts?
Tommy Vitor
I know it's hard because you don't want to be like Trump. You don't want to be the guy who is literally attacking California elected officials for the LA fires while they were still burning. Right. Like that. That is disgusting. You don't want to be like him and claiming that he turned some valve in Northern California and thus saved all of us by allowing the water to flow down. Right. But it is beyond frustrating that the fires, extreme weather events, all of this is going to get worse because of Trump's climate policies, and yet we can't seem to get people to tie the last two together. I guess we just have to keep making the case.
Jon Favreau
And on the micro level, you know, there's the 2017 Kerr county first, you know, thought about and then ultimately rejected this, like, warning system. Right. And part of that was because a couple years earlier, there had been a flood, a deadly flood, too, and there was a county next door that actually did have this system in place. And this is a kind of system where, you know, right now you can get alerts on your phone, but if you are out of cell phone range or it's the middle of the night, like, it was here. Phone off. Yeah, you had your phone off. Or you're going to see, like, oh, flash flood alert, you know, but they have things like they can have sirens, like they do for tornadoes. They have these systems they can do. And this county, right, is, you know, was probably like, I don't think taxpayers want to do that because, you know, no one, especially sometimes in red states and red state officials, like, they don't want to pay for the things that you have to pay for because government's always inefficient. Government's stupid. But, like, you know what? When we're going to be facing many more climate disasters and they're going to become more extreme, they're going to become more frequent, like, yeah, I think it's, like, time to make a case that investing in government preparedness and response is really fucking important.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, definitely. It's a tragedy.
Jon Favreau
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Jon Favreau
All right, let's talk about Donald Trump's economic plan, which the Republican Congress passed and the president signed into law at a Fourth of July ceremony at the White House. That obviously included a B2 bomber flyover. The next big fight now will be overselling the wildly unpopular law to a very skeptical public. And it appears that the administration's primary strategy is to just keep lying about it. What the law does, who it harms. Scott Besant was out on the Sunday shows peddling the bullshit that the only people affected by the trillion dollar cut to Medicaid will be able bodied adults who choose not to work, despite the fact that only 8% 8% of Medicaid recipients fit this description. Here's a clip Besant putting A work.
David Plouffe
Requirement is by definition a change to benefits.
Jon Favreau
No, there are no change in benefits. There is a change in requirements to get the benefits. The able bodied Americans are not vulnerable Americans. People can get off Medicaid and get a job that has good health care benefits. It is a group of Democrats who unfortunately seem to think that poor people are stupid. I don't think poor people are stupid. I think they have agency. To be fair. I think he thinks we're all stupid.
Tommy Vitor
I think he does too. He is really dishonest. Not a very good messenger.
Jon Favreau
No, I don't think I've really heard.
Tommy Vitor
Him talk that much. He was terrible there. I mean, the truth IS experts think 17 million people are going to lose their health insurance because of this bill. Most of that is because they're going to use red tape and bureaucracy to undo a lot of the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care act, basically provisions that allowed the working poor to get Medicaid. And they're just going to do it through red tape because they know that if you're on Medicaid and you're trying to cobble together a bunch of part time jobs to pay the bills, it's going to be difficult to prove that you worked 80 hours that month or volunteered for 80 hours. They also know most Medicaid recipients are already working. And you mentioned the 92% stat. The way that breaks down is 2/3 of adults age 19 to 64 on Medicaid are working. This is according to a Kaiser Family foundation study. And then nearly 3 in 10 were not working because they're caregivers, are sick or have disabilities or attending school and otherwise they qualify for exemption. So that means, well, we're going to wring this much savings out of 8% of the expansion population. No, what's going to happen is what's happened in Arkansas when they put in place a policy like this where 18,000 people lost coverage because of work requirements and there was no increase in employment because those people were already working. They just got pushed out of the system because they couldn't do the bureaucracy.
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I just. It's the first time I caught this in that clip is Scott Besant being like, I think people can get off Medicaid and get a job. There's been this. You hear it from Besson, you hear from Trump people, MAGA people that they're like, everyone's sitting home collecting Medicaid benefits. That's not how Medicaid works. Cause you don't get a check. It's not benefits. You go to the hospital and you have health insurance, or you go see a doctor, you have health insurance. And just like people who don't have Medicaid have health insurance when, like, it gets paid for when you go to the doctor. Right. Or sometimes you have to, you know, have a CO pay, which, by the way, CO pays are gonna be raised as part of this as well. So it's not just the work requirements, but like, this idea that people are just sitting there collecting Medicaid benefits is not. It's just fucking ludicrous.
Tommy Vitor
Makes no sense.
Jon Favreau
Apparently only 31% of the cuts. Steve Ratner had a piece about this in the New York Times. Only 31% of the cuts to Medicaid are due to the work requirements. So even if even as unfair as it is that you just mentioned that all the work requirements and how onerous they are and how they're gonna result a lot of people losing it, that's still only 31% of the trillion dollar cut there. So the rest of it is just Medicaid cuts that have nothing to do with work requirements. Annie Lowery had a great piece about this in the Atlantic, and she made the point that other people have made, which is, this is not really a work requirement, it's a work reporting requirement.
Tommy Vitor
Exactly.
Jon Favreau
And it's the reporting that's the bullshit. That's the hard part. You think to yourself, okay, well, if you're working, shouldn't you just. Don't you just check a box and say, I'm working. And that's it? It's like, no, no, no. You have to like, create an ID and a login and Then upload verification documents and you have to collect the documents. And if you miss a call from a caseworker, you lose your healthcare. And like, this is how this works. The other state you mentioned, Arkansas, that has these requirements is Georgia has this. Georgia pays. The states also, by the way, have to now set up and pay for these verification systems for Medicaid. So Georgia pays $9 in overhead for every $1 it spends on care for its Medicaid program just to do the verification thing, which again, hasn't led to more people working and has just kicked people off the program.
Tommy Vitor
And they're talking about this because they know it's popular. Like the again, Kaiser Family foundation did a poll, 68% of voters supported Medicaid work requirements as described by the House bill. But once you'd informed them that the majority of Medicaid recipients were already working and you explained to them sort of the risk of losing coverage that we just talked about via bureaucracy, the support for Medicaid work requirements dropped as low as 35%. So a 33 point decrease in support for that policy. When people really understand it. The hard part is getting people to understand it.
Jon Favreau
So those are the work requirements. But obviously there was a lot more in the bill that passed. I don't know. I wasn't here last week. But I know, and I know you haven't got a chance to talk about the bill broadly yet since it, since it passed, at least on this podcast. What did you make of the bill now that you've had a few more days to digest? Like, what's actually in it?
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, I mean, it's sort of a combination of the worst of like Reaganomics antisocial safety net with like old school disgusting pork barrel politics. Like if you look at the tax cuts, here's some people who get or people or entities who get a tax cut thanks to this big beautiful bill. The Bill eliminates a $200 firearm registration fee when you purchase a gun silencer. So good news for you. I know you're in the market. That's crazy. There's a tax break solely for Alaskan fishing boats and processing plants. There's also a special deduction for Alaskan whaling boat captains. So thank God we're finally helping other people killing whales. There's a specific tax break for the venture capital industry that's going to cost the rest of US $17 billion. $2 billion tax break for the rum industry. Oil and gas industry gets exempted from paying the bare minimum 15% tax on big corporations. If you're worth up to $30 million. You no longer have to pay the estate tax if you're a couple individuals. That's exempted up to 14 million. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos get a special $1 billion provision that will allow them to sell tax exempt bonds to build spaceports. Very important.
Jon Favreau
What a great, what a great gift for Jeff Bezos. You're welcome.
Tommy Vitor
Yes.
Jon Favreau
Over the, over the weekend where he spent $50 million to rent Venice. Was it 50 million, $50 million where they basically, they basically took over Venice and flew a bunch of private jets there, had a big wedding like the split screen of that. Because it's like most people in the country, like, I don't know, were they paying attention to the bill or were they paying attention to like all the pop culture entertainment coverage of the Bezos?
Tommy Vitor
Well, no, no one was paying attention to the bill because if you, you weren't staring at cable like we were, it was all Diddy coverage and then the Idaho murder case, like zero coverage of this bill is actually very depressing. There's also a huge tax break for business owners and people who get paid through, pass through business entities like S Corps and stuff that costs $800 billion. So yeah, I mean this thing is just like your classic special interest corporate tax break bill along with the cruelest Medicaid cuts and then these just idiotic gutting of renewable energy companies.
Jon Favreau
Trump is now has got to sell the bill. You know, so he's got Besson out there and everyone else lying about the work requirement stuff. They also, he's also enlisting the federal government in this whole effort, the propaganda campaign, which, you know, used to be something that violated some kind of law and now we're just like, oh, whatever. He had the Social Security Administration supposed to be a, just a, just a bunch of civil servants and a non partisan entity, the Social Security Administration. They sent an email to all Social Security beneficiaries, quote, celebrating the passage of the one big beautiful bill, a landmark piece of legislation that delivers long awaited tax relief to millions of older Americans. That I guess is referring to the provision that temporarily provides a $6,000 senior deduction, which is meant to fulfill Trump's campaign promise to end taxes on Social Security, which the bill doesn't do, even though Trump and the White House keep.
Tommy Vitor
Saying it does, just stating as fact that it does. It's a lie. Yeah, it's a lie.
Jon Favreau
Do you think shit like that works and just talk about the Social Security thing and then in general, like how easy or difficult do you think it'll be for Trump to make this law popular, using the bully pulpit and sort of, I guess, the entire federal government?
Tommy Vitor
I mean, I wish I could scoff at, like, that Social Security email or have faith that people eventually learn that it's a lie when they get their tax bill. But I always think back to how powerful it was for Trump to put his name on the stimulus checks and how much that stuck with people. And just I worry that this was an official government communication that went to 71 million people. 71 million people got a total lie from the US government. And like, this policy, like so many policies in this bill, does nothing for the poorest seniors. It'll help out ones that are wealthier. So some challenges for him in terms of selling this bill. It's like the 2017 tax cuts were extended in this bill. I would imagine that in 2018 or 19, people, like, saw that their tax bill went down. That won't really be the case here if it's just an extension, so maybe that'll help us fight it. It's useful that the Cato Institute is saying this is going to add 6 trillion in debt to the company. That's really bad. And it's going to cost us up to $1.9 trillion in debt servicing alone by, like, 2036. It's nice to see voices you don't always see attacking Trump talking about this, but Elon Musk being out there calling it a disaster, utterly insane and destructive, like, that was a verbatim quote. I think is. Is really helpful. It does suck, though, like, in terms of just helping people feel the impact. Like the no tax on tips provision. Some of the things Trump really wants, they go into effect right away. But the cuts to Medicaid are delayed a couple years. So we're gonna have to help people understand how bad those are going to be before there are elections.
Jon Favreau
I think that there's two parts to this, to the selling of this and how people feel about it. I think one is which narrative you buy about the bill, whether Trump's or what the Democrats are gonna say, what we're all gonna say. And part of that is dependent on who makes the better case for some of the stuff that doesn't happen until later. Then there's just, you know, I was calling it his economic plan, which I kind of think we go back and forth and, like, should we call it the bill, the beautiful bill, this, bill that? But it's like, it's his economic plan, right? And Trump and Republicans, they went all in on it, they said, this is our plan to. We ran for Trump, ran for president, Republicans ran for office to say they're gonna bring down costs, because everyone was very pissed about high costs. And this is the plan to do that. And so now, in 2026, people can ask themselves, do I feel like I can afford things again? Do I think the prices are down? Do I think that I can afford a house? You spend $4 trillion at a time of high interest rates, high prices that haven't come down, high costs that haven't come down. Partly because he has just also levied a sales tax, essentially with tariffs on everything we buy from all over the world. Just as we recorded this today, he announced another, like, 25% tariff. He sent a letter to South Korea and Japan, each telling them, like, oh, I'm going to levy 25% tariffs on both of your countries, so why not? And there's gonna be more, I guess Tunisia got a letter, too.
Tommy Vitor
Tunisia.
Jon Favreau
Tunisia, yes. There's gonna be more of these now. And so you're gonna have people paying slightly higher taxes. Well, it depends on the product, on all the stuff they buy. And you don't have. You have inflation that has come down, but you still have prices that are high. Interest rates are not coming down anytime soon, which is why he's yelling at Jerome Powell and, like, threatening to fire him. Right. And so I think that you can make a case whether or not some of these provisions go into effect that, like, hey, in 2026, are you happy with your cost of living? Are you happy with, like, what you're able to afford? If not, then, like, I thought Donald Trump was supposed to fucking fix it.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah. I do think the. There's a lot of sort of, like, macroeconomic factors that will determine how people feel about him in 2026, and then hopefully not him, but maybe J.D. vance in 2028. Right. Yeah. If inflation is still high, it is very, very bad for him. And just in terms of, like, kind of feeling the impact on healthcare, you are starting to see reports of rural hospitals closing or not getting reopened. I imagine we're gonna see a lot of that, because those rural hospitals are gonna be the ones who are the most financially impacted by these changes. And that's gonna really impact people's lives. If there's no hospital within 50 miles of you, all of a sudden, that's. You can't live like that.
Jon Favreau
Yeah. And it's a good. Like, that is happening now. There's a new Times piece about a county in eastern North Carolina that's been trying to reopen their one hospital with Medicaid money, which they almost certainly won't be able to do. Now. The key quote from a local real estate agent who's leading the charge said, quote, not having the hospital here is costing lives. This is the most important thing for us. One clinic in rural Nebraska has already closed. The guy who runs it said in a statement that the expected Medicaid cuts are a reason why they're closing. This is. This is what I got in a fight with Don Bacon about. Don Bacon was like. He's like, it's liberals hate work. That's what he tweeted. He goes, liberals hate work. That's why they're mad about the work requirements. And I was like, work requirements aside, like, stupid. Like someone in your own state is saying they're closing a hospital. He's like, that's a lot. How could you say the hospital's gonna close? The cuts haven't even gone into effect yet. The bill hasn't even passed. And I was like, I'm not the one who said it. It's the fucking Nebraskan who runs the rural county hospital. And I think these stories are why. These stories of these rural hospitals closing. And this is why, like, before the bill passed, Republicans in Congress were saying stuff like this. The White House has made a commitment. The President said over and over and over, we're not going to touch Social Security, Medicare, Medicare or Medicaid. We've made the same commitment.
Tommy Vitor
I am fully committed and I'm leading legislation to make sure that, you know.
Jon Favreau
Whatever cuts take place in Washington, that Medicaid recipients don't bear the brunt of that.
Tommy Vitor
I've been very clear. I will not support cuts to eligible beneficiaries on Medicaid if, during this budget reconciliation process, they're gonna try to cut rural healthcare, I am not on board.
Jon Favreau
So much for that.
Tommy Vitor
Tough quotes, tough quotes there from all those frontline Republicans.
Jon Favreau
So, you know you mentioned some of the Medicaid cuts don't take effect until after the midterms. Others don't hit until 2028. How do you think that's gonna affect Democrats ability to make this an issue for voters in 2026.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, I mean, this is the hard part. I mean, Priorities USA did some polling. They found that half of Americans, nearly half, hadn't heard anything about the big beau. And only 8% of all Americans named Medicaid cuts as the detail of the bill they had heard about that suggests we have a big, big messaging challenge. I just do think this is going to have to be. We have to find a way to talk about this every single week. The Democratic Party, I mean, this has got to be relentless because Trump is going to try to make it about immigration and the ICE funding. And you saw J.D. vance's tweets, right? About how actually the Medicaid cuts and all renewable energy, that is immaterial, I think was the word he used. What really matters is getting all these migrants out of the country and that somehow that's gonna have an economic benefit. That's what they wanna talk about. We have to make sure people understand the reality.
Jon Favreau
I also think, you know, we mentioned the rural hospitals closing down. Part of this is he owns the healthcare system now. Right. Just like we owned the healthcare system when we passed the Affordable Care Act. And even though something would happen in healthcare, you know, costs would go up or premiums would go up and everyone would blame Obamacare and we'd be like, no, it was actually, that wasn't Obamacare. This hasn't been implement. And like, people like, I don't fucking care.
Tommy Vitor
They blame you in charge.
Jon Favreau
So when bad things happen, and some of them, by the way, like these rural hospitals closing will be because of the law, ACA premiums, which, you know, one of the things that happened, you've mentioned this on the show before, the ACA subsidies that people were getting to bring down their premiums or to help them pay for insurance on the exchanges, they were not extended. So those ACA premiums, Axios reported this will probably increase by more than seven and a half percent on average starting in January.
Tommy Vitor
Talk about inflation.
Jon Favreau
So that's a. That's like January of 2026, you know, so that's like a big talking point. And actually that probably affects, you know, a lot more midterm voters, fortunately, than some of the people who were on Medicaid. That will lose their Medicaid much later. And a bunch of hospitals will be doing what those two hospitals we just mentioned do. And a bunch of states are going to have to start making budget decisions about Medicaid sooner rather than later. And so that's gonna start bringing all these effects in a little bit earlier. But I do think that we just have to make them own everything about healthcare and everything about the economy. Yeah, there's also a couple things, other things we haven't talked about in this bill, like the SNAP cuts. People SNAP people. Most people don't know what SNAP is, but it's food assistance. There was a Politico story, I saw it Says food banks aren't ready to handle all the people who will now need them. So we're cutting food assistance for a bunch of people. Food assistance, just like, people are gonna go hungry and so they're gonna have to turn to fucking food banks. And now food banks aren't gonna have the capacity to help people. Some of these nonprofit organizations have estimated that 6 to 9 billion meals will be eliminated.
Tommy Vitor
Wow.
Jon Favreau
And much like the rural hospitals, grocery stores in low income rural areas, they rely on money from people who have food assistance. Right.
Tommy Vitor
You see it advertised?
Jon Favreau
Yeah. And so if they lose that money, then some of those grocery stores they're worried are now could now close as well.
Tommy Vitor
This bill is just so cruel on the merits. And I also think that there are changes, at least in the House version of the bill that disaggregated eligibility for SNAP and Medicaid. Like some states, you just sort of had to apply for one and you were eligible for both, and they split that up to make it just harder to get food or harder to get health care. So everything about this is just like bureaucratic cruelty, which it does speak to why the votes around the bill, you saw a lot of agonized Republicans, they all voted for it, but a lot of people, like, on the merits, this thing was just awful.
Jon Favreau
No one really.
Tommy Vitor
No one's excited about it.
Jon Favreau
No one. No one's excited about this except, like, Trump and the biggest sycophants there.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah. And like, you know, big industries.
Jon Favreau
It's also a bill that really sort of robs from future generations. Because I just thought about this with the senior provision, the $6,000 senior deduction, which, as you pointed out, it doesn't even go to the poorest seniors. But for kids, for young people especially, like, you know, Trump did so well with Gen Z in this election, college loans are going to become more expensive. Right. Because they cut college loans. So the typical loan recipient with a college degree and an annual income of $80,000 is going to have to pay $3,000 more per year now. So this is like. So we're giving seniors wealthier. Seniors are going to get, like, a little bit of a tax deduction that only lasts until 2028. But people just starting out looking for jobs are going to be paying more.
Tommy Vitor
On college loans, and it'll also make Social Security insolvent a couple years earlier.
Jon Favreau
Yes. So, and then, of course, adding to the debt means that, like, you know, our children and grandchildren are going to end up paying higher interest rates and have to pay this off later. It's bad. One good piece of news is that our friends at Vote Save America are launching a really cool new program on candidate recruitment for local offices. We'll have more on the details of that a bit later in the show, but it seems pretty clear that we need more people fired up and running for office. Any other ideas before we move off of this on how Democrats can keep this bill in people's minds over the next 16 months? I just, I'm very cognizant of the fact that, like, it seems like a big deal now. Even if the midterms were this November where we're sitting here, what, it's July this November, it would be hard to like, keep people remembering this. We have 16 months to make this election about this bill.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, it's going to be very difficult. I mean, first of all, I just want to say on this candidate recruitment idea, a midterm election, like, this is a really big opportunity, I think, for Democrats. We need candidates running at every level for every single office. The odds are there will be headwinds for Trump and the Republican Party. The odds are we'll win elections we might not otherwise be competitive in. So if you're thinking about running, check out Vote Save America site and consider this being the year you do it because it's really, really, really important. I just think, you know, yes, in 16 months, God knows what we'll be talking about. Right. There could be a war. There could be a terrorist attack. There could be, who knows what. I do think just continuing to highlight the stories we talked about, the community hospitals closing, the individuals who get hurt, the people who lost their food stamps or their coverage, like personalizing this kind of wonky policy story is going to be the key. And just doing events and talking about this like, Democrats have been great over the last few months about doing town halls in Republican districts. That's a great way to make sure that some of those constituents at least are hearing about these terrible votes. I hope Democrats are going to every one of the, like, targeted districts all the time and talking about this bill and just kind of pounding it.
Jon Favreau
Yeah. And I think the one thing we have going for us is, you know, you're trying to flip the House. These are district level campaigns. So, you know, the problem that we run into in presidential elections is there's a whole bunch of voters who just don't pay that much attention and it's hard to reach them because they're not following the news. You know, you're running a campaign in a House district. You could reach A lot more people. Yeah. And so I think, you know, Void Save America has the list, but this is the list of people we were trying to get everyone to call. Like, you know, David Valadao in California, who has, you know, more Medicaid recipients in his district than anyone else in the country. And also, by the way, is represents a lot of farmers, people in the agriculture industry who are getting deported. So I think whoever runs against, whoever ends up running against David Valadao, that's a, that's a pretty, pretty solid campaign you can run there.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah. So Hakeem Jeffries office put out some specific stats on the impact district by district. David Valdeo, they estimate 65,000 people would lose access to health care from this bill. 60,000 households could lose access to food assistance, and then 3,600 energy jobs could be lost. So that's pretty much specific about the bill and the district and worth just hammering.
Jon Favreau
Yeah. And I do think, like you said, every piece of bad news directly related to this bill or not, whether it's with the economy, health care, we still have the doge cuts that are taking effects and stuff like that. Like, you just, we just got to make them own it from now until the midterms. So we mentioned earlier that Vote Save America is launching a drive to recruit candidates for local races. Here's the deal. This is a pilot program that they're launching, trying to recruit candidates from our audiences in Arizona, North Carolina and Texas. We mean you, you listener. This is a program where we are hoping that some of you who listen to this, who live in Arizona, North Carolina and Texas think, you know what, I should run for office. And it doesn't have to be House, Senate.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, you don't have to run against Texas. You can run for school board, city council, county commissioner, town clerk, state legislature. Like we, there's hundreds, maybe even thousands of races where no Democrat runs. Look, 2026, we hope, will be a big year for Democrats. We hope there are headwinds for Donald Trump. We hope we win a lot of races. And if we're not running in places we can't win. So we're hoping you will consider taking this next step.
Jon Favreau
The team picked Arizona, North Carolina and Texas. Cause these are three states that, you know, they're purple states. Texas is always out there is where. Hoping that we can. But look, if we want to, if we want to have a majority in this country, majority in the Senate, if we want to have a majority in Electoral College, if we want to actually just build power in these states, These are three states that we have to flip. And flipping them is not just like on the presidential level or on the Senate level. Like, it starts by winning these local races. And to win these local races, we need good candidates. And one of the biggest things that Vote Save America heard from all the partner organizations they worked with in these states after 2024 is that there's just a lack of candidate quality across the whole ecosystem. And we just need more candidates to run. And that's where all you come in.
Tommy Vitor
And this is how you recruit talent. I mean, this is how we build the base of the Democratic Party. You run for these small offices, school board, city council, et cetera, and you get good at the job and you learn and you build a political base and supporters and learn how to fundraise and do all the things that are required to take the next step. And those are the future leaders of the party in the country. So we hope you'll consider taking the plunge. You've knocked doors, you volunteered, you've donated. Why not run for office?
Jon Favreau
Why not run for office? I think it's easier than you think. And you will feel like we both know many people who've run for office and some have won and some have lost, but all of them, the experience is really meaningful. And I think a lot of people believe it's easier than they thought it would be to get started. It's pretty grueling once you do it, but it's the best, most effective way to get involved. And this isn't just Vote Save America, like saying, go do it. Like, they have great partners on the ground in these states who have identified the races that need candidates and they are ready, these organizations to help you run for office. So you can learn about the program and sign up@votesaveamerica.com run if you're interested. You'll be paired with partner organizations in your state and they will help you figure out the next steps. The program launches today, July 8th. And I think, Tommy, you're hosting a kickoff call with some of these partner organizations on July 16th.
Tommy Vitor
Damn right. So sign up soon.
Jon Favreau
Yeah, sign up. Listen to Tommy on July 16th. Check it out. And again, if you're interested, votesaveamerica.com run to learn more. Pod Save America is brought to you by article. We have some great article furniture here in the Cricut office. We got some couches, I believe. We got some bookcases. Yeah, sure. And I got some patio furniture at home. We love article. Article makes it effortless to create a stylish long lasting home at an unbeatable price with a curated range of mid century, modern, coastal and scandi inspired pieces. Article products are designed to shine on their own or pair seamlessly with nearly any other Article product. This thoughtful design approach makes it incredibly easy to mix and match, helping you create a space that feels cohesive and stylish. Article takes great care in curating its collection, focusing solely on high quality, meaningful pieces that will stand the test of time. Every item is chosen for its craftsmanship, design and lasting value. Article carefully curates its collection, selecting only high quality, meaningful and enduring pieces. Article offers fast, affordable shipping across the US and Canada with options for professional assembly. If you prefer a hands off experience, have a question or need help with your design choices? Article's customer care team is available seven days a week offering knowledgeable support and even free interior design services to help you get your home just right. With Article's 30 day satisfaction guarantee, you can shop with confidence, knowing that if you're not completely in love with your new furniture, you can easily return it. This peace of mind ensures you can invest in your home without hesitation. Articles now offering our listeners $50 off your first purchase of $100 or more. To claim, visit article.comcrooked and the discount will be automatically applied at checkout. That's article.com crooked for $50 off your first purchase of $100 or more.
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Jon Favreau
One part of the bill we haven't talked about as much is the $170 billion it spends to supercharge Trump's mass deportation regime. ICE will now become the country's largest federal law enforcement agency, bigger than the FBI, bigger than the DEA. Stephen Miller gets to hire 10,000 new ICE agents that he's basically responsible for. They basically report to him. Since Christine Ohm is like, you know, just the face of the Department of Homeland Security. But. But Miller's really the boss. Yeah, and same thing is true, I guess, with the Department of Justice. This is Jason Zengerly has a whole piece about Stephen Miller in the New York Times where everyone's saying that he's, he's the real power center, that all these Cabinet secretaries, they're just sort of there to go on TV. Yeah, Miller gets to hire 10,000 new ICE agents. They're going to build enough new detention centers to hold more than 100,000 people. ICE's new budget will be larger than most of the world's militaries, including Israel's. The idea that we're going to have ICE that has a bigger budget than the IDF is a little scary. Yeah, it's pretty scary. And this is all so that they can hit Stephen Miller's goal of 1 million deportations per year, which they're trying to reach by arresting every immigrant they can find, even people without criminal records, even people who are here legally. This is certainly what some Trump voters wanted, but not all of them. Here's one prominent Trump supporter from a few days ago.
Tommy Vitor
It's insane. We were told there would be no. Well, there's two things that are insane. One is the targeting of migrant workers. Not cartel members, not gang members, not drug dealers, just construction workers showing up in construction sites raiding them Gardeners.
Jon Favreau
Yeah. Like, really. And of course, was Joe Rogan. Love it on. On a recent episode of his podcast. So I know Democrats haven't been talking as much about this part of the bill because the Medicaid cuts and the tax cuts for the rich are much more unpopular, at least according to the polls. I still think it's maybe the most alarming part of the new law. What do you think?
Tommy Vitor
It's terrifying. I mean, the idea of this just sort of like hybrid militarized police force running through our cities. It's very scary. I also think. I think there's a real opportunity to talk about ICE agents wearing masks. I think blue states need to pass laws requiring ICE agents to show their faces, show proper id. I would love to force a big fight over that because, like, who. Who disagrees with that idea?
Jon Favreau
Yeah.
Tommy Vitor
But I also think, like, you know, there was early on Democrats were very unsteady when talking about immigration. I just think they have to understand that the ground has shifted a bit. Like, Pew just had a big survey last month on a bunch of immigration stuff that was useful. 54% of voters disapprove of increasing ICE raids on workplaces. 60% of Americans oppose suspending most asylum applications. 59% oppose ending TPS for immigrants who fled war or natural disasters. 65% of the country says there should be a way for immigrants to stay in the country legally if they are meeting certain requirements. And 61% of Americans disapprove of sending immigrants to prison in El Salvador. So the original fight we were having about this that everyone was worried about, like, oh, no, should we be talking About Kilmar, Abrego Garcia or these Venezuelan men who were sent to El Salvador. Like, vast majority of the country thinks that's fucked up and wrong and shouldn't happen.
Jon Favreau
I don't know if we're seeing this more just because we live in Los Angeles, but the videos of these ICE raids that.
Tommy Vitor
See one today.
Jon Favreau
Yeah. Which one?
Tommy Vitor
There's one in California in Los angeles.
Jon Favreau
Oh, at MacArthur Park, I think.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah.
Jon Favreau
I guess Karen Bass went down there, too. But, like, there's nothing Karen Bass can do, right? She's there to witness it, but there's nothing else you can do. They're hitting up all the car washes, and there's these people who've worked there for, like, 20, 30 years. They're just grabbing them. And it's the masks, like you said. It's also, they're in plain clothes often. They're always in unmarked vehicles almost. My Instagram feed is filled with these videos. My TikTok feed is filled with these videos. And, you know, I always double check them, too, to see if they're, you know, if they're real or not. Are you worried about that? But most of them are from, like, local news broadcasts, which, by the way, like, I do, you know, you go on social media and you, as you and I do a lot, tweet about this and you get a bunch of, like, MAGA crazies that are like, this is what we voted for. To the poll numbers that you just mentioned. People who are home watching the local news, which is some news. Sometimes that's the only news people are getting. They're not paying attention to national news. They're just watching their local news, are seeing these raids all the time. And I bet that they're fucking terrified.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, I mean, like, the stories of the guy who got the shit kicked out of him, I think it was in San Diego, and three of his sons served in the Marines. I mean, stories like that offend everyone.
Jon Favreau
The number of people I know and know of here in Los Angeles who are. They're documented, they're legal residents. They may not be citizens, but they're legal residents. And they are canceling plans, afraid to leave the house, afraid to go to.
Tommy Vitor
Work, afraid to go to student graduations.
Jon Favreau
Afraid to go to graduations because of. This is wild.
Tommy Vitor
That is the real story of these raids. It is communities being terrorized, mostly Latino communities. And Trump wants us to be brave law enforcement agents versus the sanctuary cities who oppose them and coddle criminals. The reality is very, very different. It is people going to Home Depot kicking the shit out of people who may or may not be undocumented. There's been some really high profile mistakes. I think we just have to constantly lift up those examples and talk about them.
Jon Favreau
And I think the truly scary thing about this is on the arrest side, it's like warrantless arrests with guys with masks on and their arms, stuff like that. But then on the judicial side, it's not like a real judicial system half the time, Right. Like, they're thrown in detention centers and, you know, eventually you can get a lawyer and you can get into court or whatever, but they're just, you know, alligator Alcatraz. They're just, like, building. They have. They have the National Guard now helping to, like, run the immigration judicial system in this quasi judicial system and alligator Alcatraz and some of these fucking detention centers. It's wild.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, the alligator Alcatraz thing is just so weird. I mean, the way Republicans are sort of like, fetishizing it, too. Do you think that fucking creep Benny Johnson, second time we mentioned him on the show, showing off his alligator Alcatraz merch. And then Trump was joking with reporters that if you escape, you need to learn to run in a zigzag fashion so you don't get eaten by an alligator.
Jon Favreau
And again, it's like, Laura Loomer, I think you brought that one.
Donald Trump
Yeah.
Tommy Vitor
Laura Loomer essentially tweeted, like, 65 million more to go, which is the aggregate number of Latinos in this country.
Jon Favreau
And more to go about, like, alligators eating them.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah. Suggesting we should send them all to jail and then have them eaten. And, like, less than 10% of people arrested or booked by ICE are accused of violent crimes and suggesting that they should go to a prison where they get eaten by an alligator. Like, I think most people are like, what the fuck? What are you talking about?
Jon Favreau
And, you know, obviously, we've already. We're seeing the dangers of giving Stephen Miller and ICE this much power. On Monday, the Department of justice told Judge Paula Zinnis that if Kilmar Abrego Garcia gets released on bond in his criminal case in Tennessee, they will deport him to a third country, which the Supreme Court officially cleared the way for them to do in a pair of recent rulings, one of which allowed the administration to send eight man to South Sudan, even though only one of them is from there. So now the floodgates are open to deporting people to third countries. And a third country, by the way, is, you know, a country that's not your country. That you like. So you're deported from the United States not to the country where you came from, but just somewhere you probably have never been before.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah.
Jon Favreau
So that can happen now. Last week in a court filing, Abrego Garcia's lawyers also alleged that he was subject to severe beatings and psychological torture during his time in El Salvador's Secot Megaprison. And the administration also just made another 50,000 legal residents eligible for deportation by terminating temporary protected status for Honduran and Nicaraguan immigrants. This is status. They've had temporary protected status for those two countries since 1999.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, these people have been here for decades.
Jon Favreau
The administration seems to think shipping people off to foreign torture prisons and war torn countries they've never been to will deter other immigrants from coming here illegally. That might be true. Certainly border crossings have almost completely stopped. But what happens when people from Honduras or Nicaragua or Venezuela or Haiti who've been here legally for years get their temporary protected status revoked and end up in SICAT or South Sudan or one of these countries?
Tommy Vitor
Or Alligator Alcatraz? Yeah, I mean, I just quickly, on the Sudan thing, South Sudan became a country in 2011. Within like two years, the country descended to civil war. There was like a fragile ceasefire power sharing agreement in 2018, but then in 2023 there was a civil war in Sudan, their, their neighbor to the north. So that led to an exodus of refugees and fighting and like inter tribal and ethnic warfare. And basically in 2025 there was a political crisis and clashes between the government and and opposition forces that led the UN peacekeeping mission there to warn that they were on the brink of a full scale civil war. And we're just sending migrants who have no connection to South Sudan, to a country where they know no one, have no opportunity, where 10 million people are on the brink of starvation, where it's about to descend into civil war. Why? To scare a few more people from going up like the Darien Gap.
Jon Favreau
And that would be horrific enough, you know, but now because they are stripping people of their temporary protected status. Right. So people who have been here, like I said 1999, so they have, they're working here, they're living here, they have families here, they know no other country. So what happens to them when they get rounded up by ice? Maybe they go to Alligator Alcatraz, maybe they go to some other detention center. Maybe they get deported to Sea Cot, maybe they get deported to South Danny. We don't know because it's all a fucking black box. Once ICE gets you. Right, like the idea that we're just gonna. Just gonna do this now and send these people to these fucking torture prisons. The document that Brago Garcia's lawyers filed to describe what he's been going through in Zikot like, turned my stomach.
Tommy Vitor
It's horrifying. I mean, he arrives and he's told, welcome to Sukkot. Whoever enters here doesn't leave. He was forced to strip naked. He had his head shaved. We've seen those images. And then when he wasn't putting on his clothes fast enough, they were beating him. They made him kneel for nine hours from 9pm to 6am if you fell over from exhaustion, you were then beaten. You were denied bathroom access. So he soiled himself. He lost 31 pounds in two weeks. He said. You could hear gang members and other cells, like, violently harming each other, and no one did anything. And remember, again, CBS News reviewed the backgrounds of all these men sent to El Salvador. 75% of them had no criminal record in the US or in Venezuela or anywhere else. These are just people who got swept up into the system.
Jon Favreau
I don't know if you saw that in the filing. To Judge Zinnis, the Department of justice has now gone back to acknowledging that they mistakenly administrative sent Abrego Garcia there, which flies in the face of everything that Stephen Miller and Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem are trying. And Trump, I guess, too, if he knows the fucking details, which it doesn't seem like he does, are trying to spin, because they have to make Abrego Garcia a monster. Yep. And to your point about South Sudan, they were very quick to say, oh, the eight people that we sent to South Sudan were the worst of the worst. And they had, like, their rap sheets, and it's like, you know, child rapist and murder and stuff like that. And sure, some of the people that they're rounding up and that they're sending to, people have committed horrific crimes. Right. But if they admit publicly that Abrego Garcia was just caught up mistakenly and sent to seek out space, then everyone's gonna start saying, well, what about Andre Hernandez?
Tommy Vitor
It just unravels a little bit.
Jon Favreau
What about everyone else? And then suddenly we're like, oh, now we're sending people to these torture dungeons to deal with what he just. Dealt with what you just read about. And all they've done is either, I don't know, overstayed a visa or. Or tried to come to the country for a better life or had temporary protected status. Right.
Tommy Vitor
And remember, you know, Naya Bukele, the president of El Salvador. He cut this deal to accept these men down in El Salvador because in part, he wanted to get back a bunch of hardened senior Ms. 13 leaders who are being prosecuted in New York and who could provide evidence about his government's deals with the gangs. So he wanted to get those guys back so they couldn't be, you know, testify against him. So that's. That's the background of this whole thing. Meanwhile, our president is so stupid that he thought Abrego Garcia had the letters Mississippi and the numbers 13 tattooed on his hand when it was like the worst Photoshop Mississippi paint job you've ever seen. Meanwhile, like the. According to this filing by Obrego Garcia, they separated out prisoners with gang tattoos and put them in one cell and everybody else in another. He was in the non gang tattoo cell, and in fact, one of the guards told him, your tattoos are fine. Like, they know this guy's not a gang member. It's only our moron president who seems to think he literally had MS.13 written on his hand.
Jon Favreau
Did you see how Bukele responded to the filing?
Tommy Vitor
No.
Jon Favreau
So Bukele responded to this by posting a video of Abrego Garcia in his cell in the prison that they transferred him to. Cause remember, when Van Hollen went down, they had transferred Abrego Garcia from sicot to another prison. And in this. And at the time, by the way, everyone had reported, oh, this prison is a better prison with better conditions. I think Van Hollen said that once he went down there. So they have videos of him in there, and they have a video of him watching tv. They have a TV on and he's fully clothed, and he doesn't have a uniform on. He's just wearing his clothes and he's like, sitting with Van Hollen for a drink. And so. And all these fucking MAGA people, they're just buying it. They're like, see? Or they're just in on the lie, I guess either or. But like, yeah, so they're trying to just make it a propaganda thing that, like, oh, no, no, he's fine. He's just lying in this court filing. But it's like, yeah, we know. That's a different fucking prison.
Tommy Vitor
These are the same idiots who believed it when Bukele's thugs put margaritas in front of Abrego Garcia and Van Holland. Right? Like, he's a clown. He's a marketer. Like, this is how he rose to power. He's just good at PR and all this bullshit. I hope, like some of the bitcoin people that cut deals with him early on because like El Salvador kind of really explode onto the map. A few years ago, Bukele decided to really embrace bitcoin and he wanted to make it like this crypto future city. And he talked about like building an entire bitcoin city powered by volcano, like the dumbest shit you've ever heard in your life. But all these Silicon Valley idiots embraced him. And I hope they're doing a little bit of soul searching on this.
Jon Favreau
I have been watching that. And you know, they're basically pissed about two things. Three things. And Trump 2.0 now.
Tommy Vitor
Taxes.
Jon Favreau
Yeah, right. No, the debt, the deficit because of the bill and tariffs. And this immigration stuff is actually bothering some of them. Some of, some of them are. Some of them like it, but some, like, you know, you see, like some of the all in guys are like, I don't know about this, this is bad.
Tommy Vitor
Because those morons had Trump on their show and they thought they baited him into saying that like tech founders or like foreign students who are really high performing, who get diplomas in the United States would then get a pathway to citizenship. And of course, he just told them whatever they wanted to hear.
Jon Favreau
Yeah, and I know you and Lovett mentioned this on last Tuesday's show, but the denaturalization thing now is another big fucking flag that there is this, you know, fucking provision in a law left over from the Joe McCarthy era where now they can take citizens, United States citizens who became citizens and put them through denaturalization proceedings. And yeah, do I think like that ends up at the Supreme Court? And the Supreme Court's like, this is fucked up. I don't know. I'd like to hope so. But we have, you know, Alien Enemies act is proof that we have these really dumb fucking old laws on the books. And the court's job is to interpret the law. And they could be like, I don't.
Tommy Vitor
Know, I have no confidence in the courts anymore. Not the Supreme Court. Yeah, it's really scary. And you know, it was very clear early on that they decided to go after pro Palestine protesters is kind of a test to see how much they could curtail free speech and intimidate opponents. And it was pretty effective.
Jon Favreau
Just to wrap this up. Like, I do think I realize, you know, you could pull this a million different ways. And you, you pointed out how the polling has changed on immigration. But like, yes, let's talk about the Medicaid cuts. Yes, absolutely. Talk about tax cuts for the rich. Like, those are at the top of the list. But just from a pure. I think it's the right thing to do. Obviously, we're obviously outraged by all the deportations and the immigration stuff. But just from. If you just wanted to be purely political about it, people seeing their communities torn apart because masked men are just like raiding their workplaces and ripping their colleagues away and disappearing them somewhere, like that's gonna be fucking unpopular. That is worth talking about from now until the midterms.
Tommy Vitor
I agree. Also, there's 483 days until the midterms. We're gonna talk about a lot of stuff, Everybody.
Jon Favreau
And in 18, you know, we've talked about how immigration's gone back and forth. In 18, talking about immigration worked. It was Trump was very child separate family separation was very unpopular. The caravan bullshit didn't work for him, you know, So I just think it's a different. Immigration is a catch all for a lot of different shit and people feel differently about different aspects of it. What he's doing is not pop. Pod Save America is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. Typically, you don't associate speed with quality. For example, you wouldn't expect a gourmet meal from a fast food drive thru. And automated translation tools often sacrifice accuracy for speed. Well, there is an exception to this unwritten rule. If you're hiring, you can find candidates fast who are also extremely qualified for your job. Just use ZipRecruiter and right now you can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com Crooked ZipRecruiter's advanced resume database allows you to proactively find and connect with qualified candidates in minutes, significantly reducing your waiting time. Want to meet with a standout candidate? You can unlock their contact info instantly. 320,000 new resumes are added monthly, which means you can reach more potential hires and fill roles faster. It's no wonder ZipRecruiter is the number one rated hiring site based on G2. We love ZipRecruiter. We've used it here at Cricket. We know that it is tough hiring. Sorting through resumes is difficult. ZipRecruiter helps you do it. We have found some candidates from ZipRecruiter and it's, it's very, very useful experience. Hiring speed and quality. With ZipRecruiter, four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. And if you go to ziprecruiter.com crooked right now, you can try it for free. Again, that's ZipRecruiter.com Crooked ZipRecruiter is the smartest way to hire we all belong outside.
David Plouffe
We're drawn to nature. Whether it's the recorded sounds of the ocean we doze off to or the succulents that adorn our homes. Nature makes all of our lives, well, better. Despite all this, we often go about our busy lives removed from it, but the outdoors is closer than we realize. With Alltrails, you can discover trails nearby and explore confidently with offline maps and on trail navigation. Download the free app today.
Jon Favreau
All right, one last consequence of the President's bill passing that we have to talk about the big, beautiful breakup between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Over the weekend, Elon claimed on Twitter to have launched his new political party, the America Party, which he had vowed to do if the bill passed. He apparently had not filed any paperwork for the new party as of Saturday afternoon. Surprise, surprise. But he did say it would be active in elections next year. On Sunday, Trump responded in typical fashion, let's listen.
Donald Trump
I think it's ridiculous to start a third party. We have a tremendous success with the Republican Party. The Democrats have lost their way, but it's always been a two party system. And I think starting a third party just adds to confusion. It really seems to have been developed for two parties. Third parties have never worked, so he can have fun with it, but I.
Tommy Vitor
Think, I think it's ridiculous confusion. What is this third thing?
Jon Favreau
Trump also wrote a long screen on Truth Social that opened with the sentence I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely off the rails, essentially becoming a train wreck over the past five weeks. He's not wrong. I know. What's your, what's your current assessment of Elon's power in exile? Rising? Falling?
Tommy Vitor
I mean, gutted, right? He's burned every bridge he had in the White House. I'm sure there's elected officials that would love to take his call still, because they want his money, like JD Vance or Speaker Johnson. But doesn't seem like he's very popular with Trump. And then like Tesla's stock price goes down every time he picks a fight with Trump. SpaceX and Starlink are still extremely dependent on government contracts, like Tesla didn't. A lot of the revenue isn't selling cars. A lot of it is selling regulatory tax credits that are designed to encourage automakers to make low emission vehicles. That money is going to dry up over time because other automakers are going to make more EVs and things that and they won't need to Purchase the credits. But also Trump could fuck with them there. So he's in a bad spot.
Jon Favreau
I think he also has no juice. Did he get a single Republican to vote against the bill after? He was like, you're all going to get primaried if you vote against the bill. The Freedom Caucus, they all folded. No Chip Roy, none of them. None of them listened to Elon. Elon made zero difference during any of the debate.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, I, Yeah, I was looking at. I asked Chris Murphy about that, hoping for a little hope, and like, told him about it in real time. He was like, come on, man, we just did that. Like, no one cares what Elon Musk thinks anymore.
Jon Favreau
It's just. What do you think about the third party maneuver? Do you think, do you think this is ever going to happen?
Tommy Vitor
He's so full of shit. I don't believe it for a second. Like, spraying $300 million on pro Trump ads in Pennsylvania or whatever. And like jumping up and down like an idiot at rallies. Like, that's. That's easy. That's fun. Building a political party from the, from scratch, that's hard. That's a slog. You're talking about ballot access and creating, you know, rules and bylaws and policy positions and this and that. Like, I don't think he's got the time or attention for this.
Jon Favreau
It's just like every other fucking tech billionaire who thinks they could run the government better than every other politician. And then sure enough, as soon as you get into it, you're like, oh, this is a little more complicated than I thought. Just like when Elon did Doge. And all of a sudden Lefto's been like, oh, it was much harder to cut government than I thought. He's gonna realize that creating a fucking political party is pretty hard because it's not a national thing. It's state by state. So every state has their own rules. Like you said, he still hasn't filed with the fec. But like, the state level regulations can be really burdensome. They're burdensome even for the third parties that are on the ballots that we see. The Green Party, the Libertarian Party. Like, they still have to get access every election cycle to starfk. Exactly right. Like in Georgia, apparently it's got one of the stricter laws. You need 27,000 signatures per district if you're running for Congress. And so no third party candidate has been on the ballot in Georgia since 1985 because it's so difficult. So, like, the idea that Elon Musk is going to spend, forget about the money, the time and, and like, have a political platform and a program that appeals to enough people. I just don't see it.
Tommy Vitor
Also, like, he's, let's be honest, he's not creating a party, he's creating, trying to create a cult of personality. And who is Elon Musk currently appealing to? Like, he's burning all the MAGA people now all the liberals hate him. They're putting like stickers on their Tesla as I bought this before he went crazy. Like, I guess like you're seeing exactly who you'd expect. Kind of be like, sign me up for this. Like Scaramucci, you know, kind of like the rich, sort of squishy, middle centrist, you know, low tax rich guys.
Jon Favreau
But yeah, it's like the people who is like the Howard Schultz party, remember?
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, exactly.
Jon Favreau
Howard Schultz flirting with us. It's like, like we need some. Well, it used to be we need someone who's like, financially, you know, moderate on economics and centrist financially, but like socially liberal. But Elon Musk isn't even socially liberal anymore.
Tommy Vitor
He's not socially liberal and he's sort of. I mean, the defining image of his time at Doge is him waving around a chainsaw on stage. Like, no one thinks he's kind of.
Jon Favreau
Got all his marbles as he made it possible to kill like thousands of millions of poor children all over the world. So I don't know. Now, he did say that it might just be a few districts, right? Like, if it's a close, close House race and close Senate race, maybe he picks one or two candidates to primary a Republican who voted for the bill in a couple districts. I don't know if that's. Maybe you can have a party in just one or two states that works, but I still think he loses interest in this.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, I just think it's a stupid strategy.
Jon Favreau
If you want primary, what's your goal?
Tommy Vitor
Primary them.
Jon Favreau
Is it just to, like, piss off Trump?
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, it's not at all clear.
Jon Favreau
Yeah.
Tommy Vitor
And Trump will punish him, right? Like, Trump has been quite clear. I will punish you if you do this.
Jon Favreau
Denaturalize him.
Tommy Vitor
Put up or shut up, buddy. Yeah.
Jon Favreau
Remember, he's going to. Yeah, I forgot. The whole cycle, I guess I was gone. He was going to deport Elon.
Tommy Vitor
Yeah, well, Bannon's trying to.
Jon Favreau
He's going to look into it. Yeah, he's going to look into deporting Elon Musk. So that's. He's going to work. He's going to Doge Elon, maybe The surest sign of how punchy Elon's feeling came in the form of a tweet at 1:02am on Monday. Elon's post featured an image of a digital countdown clock reading 0 across the board and labeled the official Jeffrey Epstein pedophile arrest counter. I didn't know that was a thing. Elon added the caption, what's the time? Oh, look, it's no one has been arrested o' clock again. Elon, of course, tweeted during the initial breakup that Trump hasn't released the Epstein files because Trump himself is in the Epstein files. The likely trigger for this post was the news that Trump's FBI and DOJ have determined that there is no Jeffrey Epstein client list. There's no evidence that Epstein blackmailed any of his very prominent friends like Donald Trump, and there's no evidence that Epstein was the victim of a murder and cover up MAGA influencers haven't been taking this well, partly because back in February, Attorney General Pam Bondi told Fox News that Epstein's client list was, quote, sitting on my desk right now. To review. Here's how Caroline Levitt tried to explain away the misconception to Fox News's Peter Doocy during Monday's press briefing. So what happened to the Epstein client list that the Attorney General said she.
Tommy Vitor
Had on her desk?
David Plouffe
Well, I think if you go back and look at what the Attorney General said in that interview, which was on your network on Fox News, she was saying the entirety of all of the paperwork, all of the paper in relation to Jeffrey Epstein's crimes. That's what the Attorney General was referring to and I'll let her speak for that.
Jon Favreau
Well, this should put all the conspiracies to rest, don't you think?
Tommy Vitor
Not gonna cut it. John and I did a long YouTube exclusive on the Pod Save America account where we dug into just this for about 15 minutes. If you want a lot more detail, I highly recommend it.
Jon Favreau
Also subscribe to Pot save America on.
Tommy Vitor
YouTub because we're trying to build a Democratic counterbalance to all the right wing garbage you find on YouTube when you search political news. But I have to say I watched a bunch of like right wing podcasts and media today. I watched a lot of Alex Jones and they are melting down. They are losing their minds. Like, I think this is one that stays, I think so sticks with them because it's not going to go away. Like this is still a thing that they claim to care deeply about because they think that it would lead to, to the taking down of some evil, satanic cabal of Democrats led by Jeffrey Epstein, Bill Clinton, blah, blah, blah. But like, Alex Jones, like, he's sort of built an audience and a career off of this. He's not going to let this go just because Trump says so. I mean, they certainly didn't. When Dan Bongino and Cash Patel first said Epstein didn't, that Epstein did kill himself, like, a month or two ago, like that just poured gas on the fire. Yeah, they got really upset. I mean, Alex Jones referred it to the doj, committing seppuku, which is jamming a sword into your stomach and then up into your heart. And it's. You know, he weaves this, like, crazy conspiracy theory about how actually Trump is using this to neutralize the deep states. They don't kill him, and now he can really. It's insane. But it's not going over well. It is not going over well on the far right.
Jon Favreau
It's. I realize it's not funny because at the heart of this is a horrific scandal. You know, Jeffrey Epstein did horrible, horrible things. But these fucking idiots who have been pushing this conspiracy theory for however many years, and it was always a little bit ridiculous to think that Jeffrey Epstein would sort of document all the people he was blackmailing on a list and just kind of keep it in his pocket, waiting for the day where, if he was somehow murdered and covered up, that someone would be able to reveal the list and that it wouldn't leak until then, until Donald Trump ascended back into the White House and gave the okay. But, like, you know, of course, of course. Even when they get their own conspiracy theorists in positions of power, the most power you could have running the federal government, running federal law enforcement agencies, even when they get there and say, no, by the way, there's nothing here, it's still not gonna convince them.
Tommy Vitor
Trump is always the strong man who can take care of everything, but also the victim of the deep state when anything goes wrong. And it drives me absolutely insane. I mean, the conspiracy, you got to.
Jon Favreau
Stay grievance politics requires that you're always a victim, even if you have all the power humanly possible, all the power in the world.
Tommy Vitor
I mean, the conspiracy, the. Epstein's ties with people in power have always been hiding in plain sight. Like in a 2017 interview with Michael Wolff, Jeffrey Epstein claimed that at one point, he was Trump's closest friend. Trump's first Secretary of labor, Alex Acosta, is the guy who gave Epstein the sweetheart deal back in the late 2000s that allowed him to basically serve almost no time and do a six day a week work release and get immunity from future prosecution. And so like, the lawyers for Epstein were Alan Dershowitz, Trump's good buddy. He was Ken Starr. It's like the conspiracy is right there. Like, this is a terrible human being who victimized like a thousand young women, got away with murder because he was rich and powerful and connected. And that is the story. It's not, I mean, as far as we know, it is not that he is like secretly working for the Mossad and MI6 and the CIA and the deep state somehow is running this prosecution. Like, sorry, guys, it's just not, it's not as interesting as that.
Jon Favreau
I want Alex Jones and all those people to know that the list is probably still out there.
Tommy Vitor
I mean, I think. They probably think it is.
Jon Favreau
I would not give up.
Tommy Vitor
Good luck finding it. Donald Trump promised you he'd release it and JD Vance said it was very.
Jon Favreau
Important to do and also hold Caroline Levit's feet to the fire next time you go into that briefing room. You're one of those bloggers or those whatever the lunatics they got there. Keep asking her this. Don't, don't let up.
Tommy Vitor
I do think the professional class, like the Alex Joneses, they'll figure out a way to move on, but there will be a lot of regular people who went down a rabbit hole about Jeffrey Epstein. They probably truly believe that there's a cabal of like evil pedophiles in charge of the world. And the fact that Donald Trump is not doing anything about it, how do you let go of that?
Jon Favreau
Let me tell you, those people aren't so regular anymore. That's our show for today. I will be back on Friday with a new show with a special guest host. Since Dan's gonna be on vacation, I'm gonna be talking with MSNBC's Alex Wagner. So talk to you all then. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free or get access to our subscriber discord and exclusive podcasts, consider joining our friends at the pod community@crooked.com friends or subscribe on Apple Podcasts directly from the Pod Save America feed. Also, please consider leaving us a review to help boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our producers are David Toledo, Emma Ilick, Frank and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Kanter is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Hayley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Kirill Pelaviev, David Toles and Ryan Young, our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America. East.
David Plouffe
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Tommy Vitor
So what are you waiting for?
David Plouffe
Sleep on these savings. Get to DSW asap. It's haul or nothing, people. Shop the DSW semiannual sale today.
Episode Title: MAGA Revolts Over Epstein List Reversal
Release Date: July 8, 2025
Hosts: Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor, Dan Pfeiffer
Produced by: Crooked Media
The hosts dive directly into the pressing political issues of the week, bypassing typical segment introductions to maintain a focused and engaging discussion. The primary focus centers around the backlash from the MAGA movement concerning the reversal of the Epstein client list disclosure and the broader implications of recent legislative actions by the Trump administration.
The episode opens with a heartfelt discussion about the devastating floods in Kerr County, Texas, which resulted in the tragic loss of at least 89 lives, including 27 campers and staff from Camp Mystic. The hosts express deep sorrow over the disaster and critique the inadequate response mechanisms in place.
They highlight the National Weather Service (NWS) cuts under the Trump administration, which led to a 10% reduction in staff, including meteorologists, and vacant offices in the affected flood areas. Despite timely warnings from the NWS, the communication breakdown—known as the "last mile problem"—prevented effective dissemination of crucial information to those in danger.
Key Points:
The discussion shifts to the recently passed economic bill signed by Trump, highlighting its various components and the controversy surrounding them.
Major Elements of the Bill:
Notable Quotes:
A significant portion of the episode critiques the Medicaid cuts, debunking misinformation spread by Republican figures like Scott Besant.
Key Insights:
Notable Quotes:
The hosts delve into the expansion of ICE, led by Stephen Miller, and its implications for immigrants.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
The economic bill includes several provisions that disproportionately benefit the wealthy and specific industries.
Key Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Criticism of FEMA's reduction in workforce and funding, leading to inadequate disaster preparedness and response.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
The bill includes significant reductions to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), exacerbating food insecurity.
Key Insights:
Notable Quotes:
The hosts address the resurgence of conspiracy theories related to Jeffrey Epstein and the MAGA movement's reaction to their debunking.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
The hosts outline actionable strategies for Democrats to counter the negative impacts of the bill and prepare for upcoming elections.
Key Strategies:
Notable Quotes:
A segment scrutinizes Elon Musk’s attempted establishment of a new political party, highlighting its improbability and lack of organizational structure.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
As the episode wraps up, the hosts reiterate the importance of sustained Democratic engagement and proactive candidate recruitment to combat the adverse effects of the new bill.
Final Thoughts: The episode emphasizes the critical need for continuous vigilance and active participation in the political process to address and mitigate the extensive negative consequences of the Trump administration's policies. By focusing on local elections and personalized storytelling, Democrats can effectively communicate the bill's detrimental effects and mobilize support for upcoming electoral battles.
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the pivotal discussions and insights shared during the episode, providing a clear and detailed overview for those who haven't listened. The inclusion of notable quotes with precise timestamps ensures accurate attribution and emphasizes key moments in the conversation.