Rahm Emanuel is Not NOT Running for President

Summary

Pod Save America: "Rahm Emanuel is Not NOT Running for President"

Date: December 21, 2025
Host: Tommy Vietor (Crooked Media)
Guest: Rahm Emanuel (former Obama Chief of Staff, former Mayor of Chicago, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan)

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Overview of the Episode

In this lively, candid, and at times contentious conversation, Tommy Vietor sits down with political heavyweight Rahm Emanuel to discuss the future of the Democratic Party, reasons behind the party’s 2024 loss, and Emanuel’s not-nonexistent presidential ambitions. The interview dives into political strategy and party branding, grapples with hot-button cultural issues, explores post-October 7 U.S.-Israel policy, and revisits tough Obama-era decisions on counterterrorism. Throughout, Emanuel’s signature directness, strategic thinking, and willingness to disagree with liberal orthodoxy shine through.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is Rahm Running for President?

[04:02]

• Emanuel is noncommittal but suggests he’s seriously considering a run, traveling the country, pitching policy proposals, and gauging public response.
  • Quote: “If I have something to say in a way to say it, that I think strikes a chord that not only with the public but I think addresses the challenges ... I’ll do it.” (Rahm Emanuel, 05:56)

2. Critique & Diagnosis of the Democrats’ 2024 Loss

[06:53]

• Emanuel argues 2024 was winnable but for poor candidate quality, campaign strategy, and messaging.
• He believes the DNC autopsy report on 2024 should be released, but timing must avoid stepping on GOP weaknesses.
  • Quote: “I do think the report has to be public because ... the only way to get right in ‘28 is to understand what went wrong in ‘24.” (Rahm Emanuel, 07:12)
• Sees a chronic messaging issue: Democrats fail to cross “cultural terrain” needed for economic credibility, unlike Clinton, Obama, or JFK.
  • Democrats “get caught up in ... bathroom access and locker room access, not on classroom excellence ... pronouns ...” (Rahm Emanuel, 11:07)
• Advocates for a cultural grounding that signals strength and middle-class values, citing “Sister Soulja” (Clinton) and Obama’s “parenting and fatherhood” speeches.

3. Culture Wars, LGBTQ+ Rights, and Democratic Branding

[11:26–17:36]

• Tommy Vietor pushes back on the idea that the party focused excessively on trans rights, noting Republicans made it a wedge issue.
  • Quote: “I ... think on immigration, [Democrats] missed warning signs, but I don’t think [trans rights] was why we lost.” (Tommy Vietor, 14:57)
• Emanuel insists that the party’s brand came to be defined by “advocacy,” not “acceptance,” on contentious cultural issues, alienating moderate voters.
  • Quote: “We were permissive on this topic ... permissive on immigration ... You look like, you sound like you’re from Mars.” (Rahm Emanuel, 16:10)
• The two agree to disagree, but Emanuel warns this dynamic became politically toxic.

4. Fixing the Democratic Party’s Brand

[19:19]

• Emanuel sketches a populist, opportunity-focused vision:
  • Focus on making the American Dream affordable and accessible: “You know what’s not up? People’s paycheck.”
  • Warns that concentrated wealth and a blocked ladder to the middle class make democracy unstable.
  • Emphasizes it’s not just about fighting Trump, but delivering for ordinary Americans on wages, housing, and affordability.
  • Urges the party to “fight for that home”—good job, homeownership, retirement, healthcare, kids’ education.
  • Quote: “The rules ... are skewed towards Tommy and Rahm and our families for our heads out, we win, tails, you lose. ... If the American dream becomes unaffordable, democracy becomes unstable.” (Rahm Emanuel, 21:00, 22:07)
• Acknowledges the generational change and need for perceived strength, not just newness in candidates.
• Responds to inevitable critiques of being a “creature of Washington” by highlighting his record taking on tough fights (financial industry, insurance, opioids, tobacco, gun lobby).

5. On Trump, the Courts, and Corruption

[30:31]

• Emanuel lambastes the Roberts Supreme Court for gutting institutional guardrails and enabling a politicized presidency.
  • Quote: “The Roberts court is corrupt. Corporate America is spineless. Republicans in Congress ... are useless. So we’re down to the judgment of the American people.” (Rahm Emanuel, 35:14)
• Sees MAGA voters’ anger as rooted in betrayal by elites, highlighting that power is now concentrated and unaccountable.

6. U.S.-Israel Policy & the Middle East Post-October 7

[38:38–51:59]

• Emanuel sees Israel as more strategically secure than ever but more politically isolated, thanks largely to Netanyahu.
• Suggests strong measures: no-fly lists for violent settlers, more restrictions/boundaries on U.S. military aid tied to behavior in the West Bank, and cutting off tax benefits for settlement expansion.
  • Quote: “Any settler who’s involved in any violence on the West Bank is on a no fly zone ... nothing would make them more upset.” (Rahm Emanuel, 43:21)
• Openly critiques both sides: Palestinian Authority for squandering peace opportunities, Israel’s leadership for entrenching the status quo.
• Warns the U.S. must attach real costs for violating the two-state solution, but also recognizes deep traumas and political constraints on both sides.
• Agrees with using leverage—not automatic support—to incentivize better Israeli decisions.
• On the myth of “burn-it-all-down” politics, Rahm repeatedly argues that delivering tangible improvements for Americans’ lives is the antidote.

7. On Iran, Counterterrorism, and Lessons From the Obama Era

[55:30–72:58]

• Defends (narrowly) Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites, citing credibility and historic context.
• Illuminates major internal tremors within Iran; predicts possible regime instability driven by economic and societal collapse.
  • Quote: “There is a gulf of legitimacy between the society and the government that is wider than we’ve ever experienced.” (Rahm Emanuel, 57:12)
• Reflects on the tough choices of the Obama years—what got prioritized, and consequences for both domestic and global politics.
• On drones and counterterrorism: recalls palpable, immediate threats in 2009–10, expresses some uncertainty but stands by U.S. efforts to prevent attacks on U.S. soil, while admitting that terrorism has become more decentralized worldwide.
• Narrative on “Old Testament justice” and populist anger against big banks—believes Democrats should have harnessed that more aggressively after the 2008 crisis.

8. Asia, China, and Japan’s Changing Role

[63:12–68:51]

• Discusses his time as Ambassador to Japan: credits Japan’s new leadership for willingness to confront China and increase defense preparedness.
• Notes Japan’s shift from military passivity to proactivity, and the U.S. goal to “isolate the isolator” regarding China’s regional ambitions.
• Warns that U.S. fecklessness in the Pacific could trigger a dangerous nuclear arms race.

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Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On considering a presidential run:
  “If people react the way I think they’re reacting ... and if I have something to say, I’ll do it.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [04:02–06:24]

• On the Democratic Party’s brand:
  “We in 2024 … get caught up in bathroom access and locker room access, not on classroom excellence. … We get caught up on pronouns.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [11:07]

• On the key to winning:
  “The three most successful electoral Democrats had to cross a cultural land to get heard on economics. They had to ground themselves in what I call middle class values.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [10:11]

• On MAGA and the institutions:
  “The Roberts court is corrupt. Corporate America is spineless. Republicans in Congress … are useless. So we’re down to the judgment of the American people and thank God for them.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [35:14]

• On strategic U.S.-Israel relations:
  “Israel has never been more strategically secure … but more politically vulnerable.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [39:33]

• On wealth inequality and democracy:
  “If the American dream becomes unaffordable is when our democracy becomes unstable. If you think the system is rigged for your failure, you’re gonna get pretty angry.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [22:07]

• On foreign policy realism:
  “You will not hold America’s foreign policy. … You want to spark a nation? … That’s a losing bet.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [44:37]

• On generational and strength axis in leadership:
  “There’s an axis. One way of saying ‘new’ … is generational, young versus old. The other is strength versus weak.”
  —Rahm Emanuel, [27:26]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Presidential Ambition & Education Reform: [04:02–06:24]
• 2024 Democratic Party Loss Analysis: [06:34–14:13]
• Dem Messaging, Trans Rights & Cultural Debates: [14:13–17:36]
• Party Brand & American Dream Focus: [19:19–25:20]
• Response to "Washington Insider" Critiques: [26:33–28:31]
• The Courts, Trump, and Corruption: [30:31–36:12]
• US-Israel Policy, Gaza & Middle East: [38:49–51:59]
• Iran, Counterterrorism, Obama-Era Dilemmas: [55:30–72:58]
• Japan, China, and Pacific Security: [63:12–68:51]

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Memorable Moments

• Tommy teasing Rahm about his brother (Ari) and comparing 2025’s political scandals to their own efforts creating blind trusts during the Obama years ([30:31]).
• Rahm, on being publicly called a “self-hating Jew” by Netanyahu, and swapping barbs with both Bibi and colleagues in the West Wing ([39:33]).
• A spirited disagreement about the prominence (or not) of trans rights in the Democratic platform, and how it impacted the 2024 loss ([14:13–17:36]).
• Rahm’s storytelling about catching the “marriage worked” terrorism plot and the agony of immediate homeland threats as Obama’s Chief ([69:03–72:58]).

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Tone & Style

The episode is fast-paced, unsparing, and jargon-rich with lots of political “deep cuts.” Emanuel is forthright, combative in his critiques (of both parties), and unapologetically focused on strategy and winning, while Vietor pushes for nuance and represents the liberal base. The interplay between two Obama-era insiders makes for sharp insights and a candid examination of both the party’s and country’s direction.

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This episode is a must-listen for political junkies and progressives looking to dissect the left’s recent failures, understand the cross-currents of cultural and economic crisis, and get a taste of what a Rahm Emanuel candidacy—or a retooled Democratic message—might look like.

Transcript

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Rahm Emanuel]

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[Tommy Vietor]

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Tommy Vitor. I just wrapped up my conversation with Rahm Emanuel, who is Obama's Chief of Staff. He was the mayor of Chicago, he was a member of Congress for several years and he was just the ambassador to Japan for Joe Biden. He seems like he's running for president. I asked him about whether he's running for President. You'll hear his answer. It's a little non committal, but the vibe suggests he is. We had a ranging conversation. We talked about why he thinks the Democratic party lost in 2024, how we can fix our brand and put forward a platform that actually wins back the voters. We lost to Donald Trump. We also geeked out on some foreign policy. We talked about how Democrats should adjust their policy towards Israel in the wake of the war in Gaza, whether it was right for the Trump administration to bomb Iran. We talked about China. We talked about Rahm's time as ambassador to Japan. And then how, with the benefit of hindsight, he views some of the more controversial kind of Obama era counterterrorism policies like drones. It was fun to talk to Ron. It was fun to mix it up. We, we had to agree to disagree at a bunch of different points. But I think you will find it interesting and he certainly has a vision and view for where the party should go and he is hitting the road to make that known. And I think you'll enjoy it. So without further ado, here's Rahm Emanuel. Rahm Emanuel, great to see you.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Nice to see you.

[Tommy Vietor]

First question, you haven't aged a bit. I'm trying is me interviewing you as weird for you as it is for me?

[Rahm Emanuel]

It's a little out of body experience that I have to be nice at this point.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm used to staffing you, maybe scurrying away, hiding in the back of a meeting.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Let's just say this. To prepare for this, I had to do about two hours of meditation.

[Tommy Vietor]

Good. I hope it was mindful. All right, so the Atlantic recently ran a big profile of you by great reporter Ashley Parker. The headline was Rahm Emanuel for President question mark. That's a question a lot of people are asking. Are you running for president?

[Rahm Emanuel]

I haven't decided. I'm out talking to people, hearing what they have to say, giving some of my ideas on take a couple subjects as like I recently announced that I think we should follow Australia and ban social media apps for kids 16 and younger. And I think you're either when it comes to adolescence, going to have an adult raise a child or you're going to have an algorithm. And right now the algorithms are winning and parents feel hopeless, helpless in this case. And that has struck a nerve I have talked about, which is something I care about. And you know this from when I ran for mayor. The reason is we have 2/3 of our kids or 50% of our kids are not reading and doing math at grade level, lowest in 30 years. You know more about the president's position on Windmills than you know what he wants to do to fix that. And you haven't heard from any governor about calling an emergency meeting. I've laid out a case of what K through 8 should be. Get back to the fundamentals on reading and math. An hour and 15 minutes on the topics, the type of support, but fundamentally reform high school. We in Chicago. Did you get a B average? First, city free community college. You earn it with a B average. Second, bring college classes into high school so kids through dual credit, dual enrollment, advanced placement, International Baccalaureate. 50% of the kids in Chicago are graduating with college credit. And then third, you can't earn your high school degree without showing a letter of acceptance on college, community college, a branch of the armed forces or a vocational act. Every child will not just walk, but they'll tell you where they're walking to. And we got 98% compliance in Chicago. But we have to fundamentally change our education, both reading and math and what high school is about, so we can give everybody a shot at the future. And then the most important is making the American dream more affordable and accessible. And as I talk about this, if people react the way I think they're reacting to date and everybody's nice right now, but the rubber hasn't really met the road, then I'll do it. If I have something to say in a way to say it, that I think strikes a chord that I think not only with the public, but I think addresses what I think are the challenges. And I want to talk about later on. Having been away from the United States for three years, I learned a lot about seeing America from a distance that I couldn't see right here in the arena. I'll do it.

[Tommy Vietor]

The 2006 Obama kind of book tour vibe check. Campaign swing that I think ultimately got me.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Some of us were winning the House back, but yes, you were very busy.

[Tommy Vietor]

You were very busy.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Some of us didn't have time to read that book.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. Pushing around stories about Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley. Deep cuts for the nerds out there. Okay. Speaking of presidential campaign, the DNC has been working on this autopsy report about what happened in 2024. Apparently, they're gonna spike that thing and never release it. Curious what you think about that. But more importantly, why do you think we lost in 2024?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay, first to the first part. Tommy. I'm kind of like the middle child, so I'll give a. There's kind of two camps here. Let me give you a two and a half camp here. I wouldn't release it now because right now you have the Republicans on the run on healthcare. And I wouldn't divert that. We kicked their butts down in Miami. It was a mayor's race. I was there. And the Republicans are flipped out. I wouldn't change the story. I do think the report has to be public because I think the only way to get right in 2028 is to understand what went wrong in 2024. Those of us like you and I who are addicts about this and want to know the information and I think it's important, put it out kind of in a slow area. End of the year, those of us who care will read it and digest it. But right now the Republicans are scurrying out of Washington hoping nobody noticed that in a period of the fact that people are worried about health care costs, theirs are going to jack up 20%. Why would you want to change that narrative?

[Tommy Vietor]

So you're saying like punt it a little bit, don't kill it.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I wouldn't, I wouldn't even punt it. I would like do an on site kick. Okay. No, but I would move it.

[Tommy Vietor]

New Year's Day release.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah. And you and I and others will read it and understand it and we'll grapple with it. But right now I don't want to take the spotlight off the Republicans. So I'm kind of of. It's not an either or choice, it's a when choice. That's kind of where I'm at. Okay. And my thing is with the Republicans running in the dark of night out of Washington, nail them and don't change it. Make sure that by the time they come home and do a couple town halls, all they get is health care.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay, now number two in 2024, this is where I'm hoping the meditation kicks in. So we'll evaluate whether I really did my Zen. Okay, so I have kind of three things that I think you have to evaluate. And I do think, contrary to CW, that 2024 was winnable even with a 70% countries on the wrong track. Not a good candidate, not a good campaign, and clearly not a good message.

[Tommy Vietor]

So pre or post?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Biden, I'm talking about. Well, post. Okay. Kamala Harris gets the nomination. Biden. Harris is down 8 within a week because she has change. She goes plus 3 and she runs on change and focused on. And her best testing ad is about housing and affordability, et cetera, all the way through. Call it the debate, all the high points, convention debate. She wins. And also kind of getting the baton and making it her own somewhere afterwards. They go from the economy and change as she is different than Biden and Trump with a campaign based on democracy as on the ballot, et cetera, to being Biden's continuity in his message. And she goes from plus three to minus one and a half. Unbelievably, when I find the person that decided it wasn't the economy and change and wanted to go with continuity and Biden, I'm going to kill him.

[Tommy Vietor]

Wasn't it Joe Biden? I mean, he apparently was like calling her, saying no daylight kid.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah, but, but here's, here's my view. You're your own person, right? And you pay for all this. You spent $3 billion he didn't tell you to run on his message number. That's one, two, I think in a core message and I think this for the party. Now, Tommy, you and I worked together, obviously with President Obama. I worked also with President Clinton. Okay, all three. And this is something the party has to learn. For 2028, the three most successful electoral Democrats had to cross a cultural land to get heard on economics. They had to ground themselves in what I call middle class values. We shortchange it for President Clinton. On Sister Soulja, President Obama talks about parenting and fatherhood and then deals with his own pastor. Right. President Kennedy goes down to Texas and says, I will not be a Catholic president and take direction from the Pope, but I will be a president who is Catholic. Okay, everyone. One side note. President Clinton, the number one topic, 40% of his advertising primary in general, was on end. Welfare, as we know it, was not on the economy, stupid. Was not on the middle class tax cut. And so that is essential terrain. We in 2024 as a party get caught up in what I call, you know, bathroom access and locker room access, not on classroom excellence. We get caught up on pronouns. We get caught up on a host of subjects.

[Tommy Vietor]

But do we get caught up because Kamala Harris barely mentions, like, trans issues, trans rights in her campaign, Republicans talked about these issues constantly. They ran $50 million worth of ads attacking her. And I think some people would argue, actually the problem was Democrats didn't fight back and defend and explain our position.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Well, for a lot of reasons, mainly because we allowed constituents, constituent groups to dictate message that is not the people that do it. Yes, they made it an issue, but that's a campaign, okay? Your job is to make what you want the issue. You have to not only rebut it, you have to turn it. And we did things. It was a recent report on immigration in the early days in the transition for Biden. And they allowed Washington constituency groups to drive not only policy, but message. And then the political consequences. That is also true on a whole host of other cultural subjects. And I'm using culture in a capital sense. Broad sense. Yeah. But if you look at the history of successful Democrats, they cross a cultural terrain that gives them legitimacy to get hurt on the rest. Let me take this message or this point just a further in 06, as you know, we kind of modeled first ever using people out of not using, but recruiting people out of the national security apparatus to run for office. The tactic or believing that messenger was message was their biography opened up a slew of voters that you'd normally get the mute button on as a Democrat. In the same way on presidential if you don't look like one, you're grounded where they are in the family room and two, that you have the strength to take on a member of the family and say you're wrong. Pastor Wright, Sister Soulja going on, you can't get heard on the where you want the campaign to be, which is a dichotomy between who we're fighting for and who the Republicans are protecting.

[Tommy Vietor]

So I hear you.

[Rahm Emanuel]

So that's my analysis of 2024. There's other things to kind of go through, but money wasn't the problem. Usually in campaigns, money was the problem. You got $3 billion.

[Tommy Vietor]

We had a lot of money.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay. The message and how you operated as a campaign, in my view, and I can say this from a distance, in July and August, I was arguing with the campaign from a distance about calling for a national ban on cell phones in classrooms. And I must have made so I don't get a legal charge. I was doing it in after hours, but I was making tons of calls to anybody that would answer. Couldn't get anybody to move.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, I think with the and I'm.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Not saying that would have won it, but it would have given you that cultural edge I'm talking about.

[Tommy Vietor]

I think that's a really interesting point. And it's something that hits people directly. I do think, look, I think on immigration, you're right, there was an abject failure to read pretty glaring warning signs, to watch the coverage on Fox News to see how every day they were focused on the border and it felt like chaos and a crisis and the Biden people didn't move. I do think there's been this emphasis in the wake of 2024 on the suggestion that Democrats ran on trans rights or were constantly Talking about the bathroom or were constantly talking about, you know, whatever or pronouns. And I just. I don't think that's accurate. And I think it leads to the trans community feeling like they were blamed for a loss that I think was about inflation and economic issues and others. And I think if we.

[Rahm Emanuel]

We.

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't want us to miss the point. And I think that was really the real problem.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I. It's your show, but I just slightly disagree.

[Tommy Vietor]

You can disagree.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Here's why. One, you come out your. Let's dial. Put the clock back a little and look at the video again. We spent two years shutting schools down during COVID Much longer than the science, actually, and people knew it. Yeah. And the moment we opened that school door, we blew open the bathroom door. There was debates about bathroom access, there was debate about locker room access, and there was debate about sports. And we were. This is where I disagree. We weren't a party of acceptance. We were a party of advocacy on a set of subjects that weren't core to people and not that people. As somebody who in 2016, as mayor, dealt with bathroom access, I just didn't make it primary. Yeah, but there was to act like there wasn't heat on these topics and that we were more than silent. And we went from trying to create an environment of acceptance to one that was advocating for them. And then there are other cultural issues. Don't put them in boxes. How? We were permissive. We were permissive on this topic. We were permissive on immigration. We were permissive on a host of other cultural issues that boxed us in a place that took a whole group of voters, that we could have won. And they said, look, you look like you sound like you're from Mars.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, look, we might have to agree to disagree. You're right.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I think we should.

[Tommy Vietor]

There was heat on this issue.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Right.

[Tommy Vietor]

Look, I think the right policy approach is basically libertarian, which is like, let people make their own medical decisions. Let families, parents and kids make their own medical decisions. Get RFK and Dr. Oz the fuck out of my conversation with my doctor. When it comes to sports, of course there's questions of sports fairness, but that's not a one size fits all approach. Let's let local communities figure that out. Then there's just this question of like, of empathy. Right. And communities feeling heard. And imagine you're. Look, think back to high school, like I was a nerdy kid. Sometimes you feel left out. You feel different than others. Imagine you're like a trans kid and you turn on the tv, you're looking.

[Rahm Emanuel]

At a guy who's Donald Trump is.

[Tommy Vietor]

Mocking trans athletes like every day at.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Rallies and in high school. We have to fight for those in the bell and taking ballet in the 70s.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And trust me, I was the only kid male in that class.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay. I'm very. I'm about an accepting culture without becoming an advocacy culture. We are going to disagree. To disagree because I think you are underestimating how much that became a brand and a profile, knowing full well that the other side was going to use it.

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[Tommy Vietor]

So the the harder question. We have a broader Democratic Party brand problem. I think we both agree on that. Sketch out for Me like the Rahm Emanuel vision for the Democratic Party. How do we fix this challenge we have? Because we're not. We're not doing a lot of that right now.

[Rahm Emanuel]

No. Well, one is the nominee will. I'm not. Let me back up. The nominee will go a long way that you can't go without a nominee and a primary fight before that. There's a couple rules about the different people conflate 2026 and 2028. 2026 is a referendum election. On them. They own the House, the White House and the. And the Congress. When you have that like in 2010, 2018, 1994 or 2006, that is a referendum election. You have a high turnout about the party out of power. We have seen in every election across the country in the last year. Exactly. That independents are going to break 2 to 1 for the party out of power. We have seen it in every election in every part of the country since November 2024. And there'll be a low turnout among Republicans which we have seen in every election for the last year. That is what this election's about. And like we did in 06, somewhere in the spring you announce a. Like we did a six in 06. You should announce a six in 2026. Some modicum of a minimum wage things that we're going to work on, healthcare cost control, things that actually reflect the message of affordability and accessibility and income growth. I actually think one of the arguments, one topic. If I couldn't do a shout out, your groceries are up, housing costs are up, utility rates are up, health care costs are up. You know what's not up? People's paycheck.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And we need to. If one person in this state is getting a trillion dollar pay package, how about giving people a minimum wage increase across the country? They haven't had an increase in wages. And with all this technology coming and productivity coming. Well, the contract calls for an increase in wages. So if other things are right. So that's a 2026 referendum. 2028 is a choice election. Now, one of my things that I think is a problem for the party is we've allowed Donald Trump to blind us. And what I mean by that is everything we're doing is about and there's a lot to fight Donald Trump on. He's doing a lot that's damaging to the core of America. But we have to be able to also prove that we can fight for America as much as we are fighting with every viber and every vigor of our body in fighting Trump and that centers around, in my core view, both on a message standpoint and then what the brand of the party is that the American dream. And you and I were talking about our kids earlier before, it's not affordable and it's not accessible to the broad base of America. It's inaccessible. And for those of us that over our course of our careers have made it, our kids, one way or another are going to be okay. But it can't be the American dream when only 10% of the kids of America get access to it. The rules. When people say, I feel like I can't win, there's a reason. Because you can't win, it is skewed towards Tommy and Rahm and our families for our heads out, we win, tails, you lose. And our message. And the truth of the matter is, and I think Tommy, you and I read a lot of history, et cetera. The moment the American dream becomes unaffordable is when our democracy becomes unstable. If you think the system is rigged for your failure, you're gonna get pretty angry. Agreed. And the party is about fighting for that home. And the contract is not really hard. Good job, own a home safe for your retirement, save for your kids education and be able to afford health care. That is not really a lot to ask for out of a country. And we don't have that now. We have to be honest, we didn't get here overnight. It was not a Republican vote. It's happened over the last 30 years. Each thing incrementally over a period of time. The ladder got pulled up, the door got shut and double latches were put on. And you can see there's never been a greater concentration of wealth in this country in a period of time, both on home and on the stock market. I mean, the two things that generate, well, like now and the idea that the next generation just literally gets handed their entire life's income plus just handed to them, and the tax code encourages you to do it. It's crazy.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it's crazy.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And so to me, that's the core. And it would open up to a group of voters over a period of time. And it's not a one election thing. Every day you're doing sweat equity, pushing this. And I think knowing that, as you know, the joke is paranoid people have enemies. That system is not only skewed, you are rather than striving to get into a status, you're struggling to maintain it and you are getting the shaft. Look, when I left college, I earned less than $20,000 and I was able to get an apartment today. My son worked in the Navy, leaves college. He gets without going in much north of what I got but he gets a housing stipend and without that housing stipend his life would be more difficult. A lot of people are making three times what their parents made and they're stuck in the basement. This is a lived, they're not paranoid. And the next thing is if mom and dad want to sell the house, the kids come in with the house because they can't get out of there. They can't afford an apartment where I was making a third less than what kids, my own kids, but other kids are making and I can afford to live on my own where today kids cannot. They have to have three or four roommates or they have to live in their parents basement. This is insane. So that's what I think is the.

[Tommy Vietor]

That's right.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I think that is how you get right with the American people. You make it core to who you are, what you are, what you're going to fight about. I think there are other things that if we're strong at home, and I say this going back to what I said about Japan. I learned a lot about Japan, learned a lot about the Indo Pacific. Being away from America, 8,000 miles in 12 hours. I got a chance to learn a lot about America, probably more about America than any other thing. And we have nothing. China is doing scares me. It's what we are not doing at home. China doesn't decide whether 50% of our kids can't do reading and math at grade level. China doesn't decide whether we declare war on our research universities while they're racing ahead. China doesn't decide whether we don't do all of the above on energy but only pick oil and gas. And we're going to bet everything on it we have made. There are challenges, other things we have to do, but the things we are not doing at home to take care of the home front is making us weaker both at home and abroad. That is, and it's, and it's really becoming at a higher and higher price to us.

[Tommy Vietor]

Look, I think, I think that is the right message. I think people feel like the system is rigged because it is rigged. You're hearing it, you're seeing in polling, you're seeing in focus groups like you know, swing left is knocking on doors. The number one thing they're hearing is not necessarily affordability. It's like the system is broken. It doesn't burn it all down. And so that leads me to question like, look, I think on paper you are. It's hard to argue anyone else is better prepared to be president. You've been served in Congress. You were a mayor, you were an ambassador, you were the White House chief of staff. Like literally no other job that a White House chief of staff could prepare you to do the job of president. Right. But I think politically you're going to encounter voters who are like, fuck Washington. Burn that place down. Burn what they've done down over the last 30 years. And they might blame you for NAFTA, the finance things we. Our response to the financial crisis in the Obama years, things Congress did. How do you respond to that?

[Rahm Emanuel]

How do you deal with that? A couple things. One is you're not wrong about. Let me say there's an axis. One way of saying new, which is a bigger kind of call about change is generational, young versus old. The other one is strength versus weak, which is a part of the party brand. And having somebody with strength would be different for the party. As you all know, when it came to taking on the financial industry, who got the call and who got the ball? When it came to taking on the insurance companies for kids health care, who got the call? Who got the ball? Who was the first municipality to sue the pharmaceutical industry over opiates? Who has had the toughest regulations as it relates to tobacco and kids, who took on the national gun lobby. So strength would be a whole new quality to the Democratic Party. And second is as it relates to the financial industry, I would just say some of us were advocating for Old Testament justice. I don't want to relitigate this.

[Tommy Vietor]

I recall.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay. Some of us said, I wish you.

[Tommy Vietor]

Had won that fight.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay, no, well, actually, this actually is a good lesson. And I just did this yesterday with a bunch of high school kids and.

[Tommy Vietor]

In Vegas, Old Testament justice.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Well, no, in the sense of, you know, the president in the Oval Office, there are two choices, bad and worse. There's never good and bad. The people that were advocating health care first were not wrong that every day that you didn't do it is a day you probably can't get it done. Those of us who are arguing for taking on the financial industry and making the banks and insurance companies your enemy were actually, were right both on the economics, but more importantly, right also on the politics, which is you needed an enemy of an interest group the American people were angry at. In the end of the day, he got 300 plus electoral votes. He makes the big decision. He picked health care. We did get health care, but there was a political cost called the Tea Party. And none of these are 100% right and zero wrong. I do believe that we should have taken on the fine after both tarp, the bailout for the banks and insurance companies, and then after the recovery act of $1.6 trillion collectively. And that's when $1.6 trillion was real money. The political. The culture of the country needed a Old Testament justice and you couldn't do both. And the president said of the three kids, cap and trade, health care and financial reform, his favorite child was health care. That was his joke that Saturday. And he wasn't wrong. We got it done. But don't think that it doesn't come with a consequence, both in the sense of straight off. Yeah. Because to pass healthcare, the insurance companies had to sit on the same table. That was the lesson from hillarycare. Fighting banks would have been a better fight. That said, healthcare has become the kind of the beaches of Okinawa for the Republican Party. Yeah, that's right.

[Tommy Vietor]

I wanna ask you one kind of LA question before we get to that LA question. Yeah. You're in LA at the moment. I think you got a relative who works in the movie business. I think he's like a PA or something.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I try to forget that he's my brother.

[Tommy Vietor]

So what do you make of this battle between Paramount and Netflix to buy Warner Brothers? And in particular, like President Trump's efforts to inject himself into the process and pick the winner? Like, I'm imagining 2010, Barack Obama calling up Warner Brothers and saying, like, you must greenlight the town too.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Let me wait before we get to this. How many times a day do you say to yourself, if we had done every day. Okay, like that's 10 times before 9am yeah. Yeah. I can't believe I spent $300,000 creating a blind trust as chief executive. I mean, chief of staff. I can't believe I did that. And I look at this, and also another couple hundred for ambassador. I look at people coming out of prison are already nominated. Like, what? What am I, the schmuck in the room?

[Tommy Vietor]

We all were.

[Rahm Emanuel]

One funny story. I give the head of the ethics at the State Department, you know, four months out, you have to do an exit ethics report. I said, I will do this, but you must be the Maytag woman, Matt. I mean, is nobody filling up? I look at all these people. Never filled out a financial form. You're chasing me four months afterwards.

[Tommy Vietor]

Crazy.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah. Okay, now that. Thanks for the therapy. So one this. Let me go where I think the problem is this Is the Robert Supreme Court. I blame them because with their decisions about ftc, the securities and Exchange, that you don't. Their view of the unitary power of the presidency means that the President is the ultimate judge and he will insert himself and it won't be the rule of law and it won't be a non political independent body.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I mean, nobody believes this. Justin. Permanent Antitrust Division.

[Tommy Vietor]

No.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay, so they. Noah Feldman in Bloomberg had a fabulous piece. Yes. Yesterday. That all the other justices at the Court of Appeal, you know, Circuit court, court of Appeals, etcetera, have done a fabulous job. And the Supreme Court, the leaders have abandoned the rank and file judges on the field. This is their fault. I'm not a fan of Trump, so I don't want this to be. He has a permission slip to insert himself and all the guardrails about concentrating power in either one person or one of the three branches of government have been eradicated. Forget the Congress, because the Republicans have put their entire manhood into a lockbox. This is Robert's fault. And nobody should kid themselves. The Supreme Court has made a horrendous decision about the balance of power in a country that's based on the rule of law. And you got a decision here. And the President's inserting himself not only against CNN and not only on what he's rewarding friends that have rewarded him. And he's gonna weigh in. This is not a pop quiz. Forget that you and I, I mean, whatever I feel about Donald Trump, you have given the president, whoever he or she may be, a permission slip to have an opinion that's more powerful than the law. This is for originalists or a court system that base thinks of themselves as originals. This is not anywhere close to the original founding framers of the Constitution about how power exercises itself in a political system.

[Tommy Vietor]

I agree.

[Rahm Emanuel]

It's crazy. So everybody's. I mean, look, I've read about Netflix versus Paramount and the concentration and, you know, I don't know. But what I do know is that the Supreme Court has allowed the opinion of a president to outweigh the law in a dramatic way. Not just. And I'm putting aside Donald Trump, there will be another decision of a concentration of power economic. And the Supreme Court has given a green light to whoever is in the presidency to make that decision, not the laws and the interests of the country. And we do have two problems. I think of myself as a free market capitalist, and on one side you have Marxism, on the other side you have monopolists. And right now, the monopolists are winning because that's Donald Trump's economic philosophy. And he gets to decide because he's also going to like he's doing today. And I've talked about this a year ago on Ezra Klein show. Corruption is going to be the issue and I actually think the reason MAGA voters feel the way they do is because they've betrayed rather than worried about their paycheck and their checkbook. He's worried about his paycheck and his checkbook and they know it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, I think. Right, look, I think point well take it on the courts. I also do blame Amazon a little bit for paying $40 million for some boring ass Melania documentary which is self evidently a bribe. But you know, in broad daylight we'll call it what it is, I guess.

[Rahm Emanuel]

No, I mean look, no accountability. This is. And I'm going to do a shout out to the American people. The Roberts court is corrupt. Corporate America is spineless. Republicans in Congress and both branches are useless. So we're down to the judgment of the American people and thank God for them. I know a lot of people in our party. Oh the American people. Why do they vote for this guy? They are going to issue a judgment in 2026 and I'm very confident unless something dramatic happens, it is going to be a verdict of guilty on the president of the Republican party. And thank God for them because they are the thin blue line that's gonna put a stop to Donald Trump. And pause it where Roberts, the Republicans, corporate leaders, titans of media are useless. Yeah. And I'm just trying to make sure that this gets through the FCC what I'm saying. Cuz they are useless. And I could say some other things I used to say when I was chief of staff and you walked in. I cannot stand what they have done.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, I agree.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Every one of them have failed the test of integr. Foreign.

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[Tommy Vietor]

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[Rahm Emanuel]

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[Rahm Emanuel]

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[Tommy Vietor]

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[Rahm Emanuel]

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[Tommy Vietor]

Together, let's drive. All right, so when we talked about setting this up, you wanted to do some foreign policy, which was music to my ears. So let's.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Well, now that I'm a foreign policy fan.

[Tommy Vietor]

You're an expert. You're an expert.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Honestly, I actually may one day get a double breasted suit.

[Tommy Vietor]

There we go.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Work at Foggy Bottom. In the wake of the war In Gaza on October 7, a lot of Democrats have been saying we need to rethink US policy towards Israel. Our friend and former colleague Ben Rhodes wrote this piece in the New York Times a couple of weeks back. He recommended, among other things, that the US cut off military support to Israel, support US recognition of a Palestinian state and refuse to take APAC money. Curious what you think of those recommendations and then like what changes you would propose, if any.

[Rahm Emanuel]

So is Damien, you know this. In 2009, there's only one person the Prime Minister of Israel calls a self hating Jew publicly.

[Tommy Vietor]

You and Axelrod, right?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah. Axelrod is pissed that he never gets with the reclamation. I said you're not that good at Jew, David. You're also not naimed around Israel publicly. And he's also in his book. The only person he attacks in the book is me. His own book.

[Tommy Vietor]

What did he attack you for?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Just that I was anti Israel. You know, the same stuff.

[Tommy Vietor]

Got it.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And if you remember, and I think you do that battle also in the Oval Office where literally the President had to tell the Prime Minister, I'm the President, lay off Iran and so on and so forth. I have a photo of it actually, because we went toe to toe over the housing expansions and settlements expansion in West Bank. Yeah. So here's. Let me. Before it's just about Israel. Let's talk about the Middle east and I'll talk about Israel in that context. I think it's the context that matters. Israel has never been more strategically secure since Ben Gurion was dancing the horror in 1948 in Tel Aviv, but more politically vulnerable. I had never in my life that I thought that a Prime minister of the state of Israel would lead Jews back into the ghetto. And that's what's happening in Israel. That's what's happening in the world and that's what's happening around the world. Jews can't go to Europe and participate in the Eurovision while the UAE is holding hosting the world financially in F1. He has literally in the way he has executed pieces of the last, not just the last two years, but over his time isolated Jews in Israel. The fact of the matter is this is the best strategic terrain Israel's had since the founding. You have peace in Jordan with Israel, you have peace with Egypt, Syria and Lebanon. Basically call it non belligerence. You can use whatever label, but it is in more secure place than ever before. Iran is on their back foot. I do want to spend time on this because I think one of the most unreported stories right now is the collapse of Iran, not just strategically Imploding in society. You don't really have in the near geography a strategic threat. Second, when we were starting in politics, the Gulf was all about just oil. Today, they want to be part of the world economy, which is what Israel's ace is. The uae, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia want to use their petrodollars to be part of the global economy and their citizens to be part of the. That is an invitation for Israel and they're pissing it away with this. Prime Minister Rabin understood that and he was a statesman. And I say because we're on the 30 year eve of his assassination, to seize a moment. Look, these are not easy decisions. You have to make compromises and then kind of leap into the strategic not only unknown, but try to shape the events to your face. You have the Gulf countries ready to accept Israel as part of the region, which has been the dream, the nation among nations since its founding. And B, you have strategic stability and you are perceived as a strategic superpower in the region and an economic superpower. That is an incredible. That is as good a chessboard as Israel has ever had in 77 years. And there is nothing that this prime minister has done, whether it's with Lebanon, Syria or the situations they have done that opened up the Gulf to seize that moment that the IDF created. Now, I would do things that are very clear as it relates to Israel. You've crossed the line on the settlements. Unacceptable. I said this when I was ambassador to Japan, to members of the Biden administration. Any settler who's involved in any violence on the west bank is on a no fly zone. Put them on a no fly zone. Nothing would make them more upset that they can't come. Go to Brooklyn, go to any part of America or go to Europe. Just no fly zone.

[Tommy Vietor]

Biden sort of started some of that process. Trump walked it back.

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[Tommy Vietor]

You want to go further?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay. Without calling it out. There are people that know that I want to go much further.

[Tommy Vietor]

Got it.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Two, you know, and you and I worked on this. President Obama signed the largest security defense package in Israel's history. I would continue that, but there are going to be restraints and boundaries on that. And third, you're either going to make the most of this strategic opportunity, but you will not hold America's foreign policy. You will not hold our strategic interests. I think all the others in Trump administration that basically want to just be a hemispheric. You do not want to give up our position in the Middle East. I think that's a foolish idea and strategically flawed and I would say this is where we're going and you can either be a part of it or you can be on your own. So if you want, Mr. Prime Minister, you want to spart a nation, let me not stop you. But you're going to realize that's a losing bet.

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, but isn't. I mean like a lot of people sort of default to the two state solution, right? But Netanyahu says he opposes a Palestinian state. The Knesset just voted to annex the West Bank. We've been dealing with this right wing government in Israel for 15 years. It's only getting worse. It's, it's like, you know, Ben GVIR and Basil Smotrich are now like extremists who are members. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority has no credibility. It's an undercut.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah, they don't get a pass because they missed three. From Camp David with Echel Barak and Yasser Arafat to what Olmert offered him six years later, it's all the same. But they have missed many opportunity and Israel has since those times and other events from bombs in Disneyland Square to October 7, have to legitimize their position of non dialogue. But it's not a choice.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right. And so like, I guess what I'm getting at is it feels like, look, a lot of Democrats in the US just say, oh, we need a two state solution, we need to negotiate. It feels like that's just a way to punt and we'll perpetuate the status quo. At some point. Don't we need to use our leverage where we can to try to push or pressure Netanyahu into making better decisions?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Well, here's the one thing. And since Netanyahu has decided to play in American politics, I have no problem discussing what the first step on that journey. And I give Naftali Ben David, the former Prime Minister that was kind of the one Prime Minister interrupting Bibi's 17 year run is legitimizing the Arab Israelis to be part of the coalition government. They were, they had 10 seats. That would reduce the stigma, but also legitimize the Arab participa. I mean one third of the pop, not one third. 20% of the population is Arab Israelis. That's first step. Second, there are boundaries. And this was also part of the housing fight that. I mean, Mitchell and I were not on the same page. He thought I was too strident about this at that time. I haven't seen the law since you used to be able in America to get a tax write off if you contribute to building settlements in Israel eliminate it. I don't know if it has been eliminated, but back then it wasn't. That was my position. Two, you cross the line, totally unacceptable. Three, you're part of any violence. You're on a no fly zone. You have to impose political, not just economic. But there are some economic costs to violating the two state solution. Because look, there will never be a river to the sea and there will never be a Greater Israel, which is the inverse of the river to the sea. There's the same thing. Both parties have to give up their extremist position and learn how to live together. There is a legitimate concern by Israel in the sense of a Palestinian Authority that can be a legitimate partner with the interest of finding how to work with the state of Israel. You and I sit here in Beverly Hills as we're taping this.

[Tommy Vietor]

Hollywood. Sure.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay, Hollywood. The trauma on Israel post October 7th horrifying, unimaginable. It took us a decade on September 11th. Yes. And you can't, if you're navigating a democracy, you can't basically ignore that trauma. I agree. And it's real. It's viscerally real. I agree. Finding up. And there's a sad twist of irony because the kibbutzim on the border of Gaza when you look at the vote totals were the most progressive in Israel politics and they destroyed not just Hamas. But the attacks in dizzying off going back 20 years ago destroyed any center of gravity in Israel for finding a partner for peace. That's just a fact for their psyche and their dynamics of their politics. The history of America with Israel is we do. America does things to create a space for a Prime Minister to take the risky political steps. Coddling prime minister saying yes to his actions is not in Israel's self interest. That has not worked. And this course will not work. You will not repress the Palestinian aspiration for a state. On the other hand, the Palestinians have to accept a two state solution, not a river to the sea solution.

[Tommy Vietor]

But would you want to condition military aid so that's not used in the west bank? For example, like you know, you've seen the videos I've seen of Smotris handing out American machine guns to extremists in the West Bank. Like shouldn't there be some strings attached to that money?

[Rahm Emanuel]

A small yes as it relates to the West bank, etc. I get what you're saying. As it relates to the security of Israel and in the relationship. Because the biggest conflict right now in Israel is Gaza. It's not kind of Iran, although Iran's a very serious threat. But I'm saying in the sense of hot or Lebanon. So there's got to without going this policy, there has to be a cost benefit to making sure that Israel realizes the decisions they make to continually repress a Palestinian aspiration. And we're paying for it. America's paying for it. And I think Israel's paying for it through their isolation, both political, strategic and economically. I mean, look, Israeli symphony can't go perform somewhere in Europe and a singer can't perform somewhere in Europe. People, academics can't participate in conferences on biomedicine and some of the great biomedicists and life sciences are being done in Israel or in AI technology. That isolation is going to come with a consequence and forget that I said it. As I like to remind the Prime Minister, Israel is now facing for the first time a net emigration. Your best young minds in this areas of science and technology are leaving and they're going to Berlin, which has its own twist of irony. I said, yeah, you want to keep doing this, go ahead because we're not going to bankroll this because you're bankrupting your own country and you have to be. Nothing helps. As somebody who took on Bibi in 2009 when a lot of other people were lip syncing the talking points out of aipac, nothing helps Israel by saying yes to them automatically. There's a cost to this and we can't keep covering up that cost. So whether your manifestation of is it restrictions on weapons, I'm finding a series of other things that I think would hit a nerve politically and culturally in Israel, that this is not the cost we should be paying. This is not the Rubicon. I'm not disagreeing with you. No, no. The question is which of these restrictions costs would hit the nerve to get them to wake up? Because right now they're living in an illusion that there is no choice they have to make. The choice you're making, which you think is no choice comes at a huge consequence and I'm not covering that bill for you. When I say I meaning the Americans anymore.

[Tommy Vietor]

Agreed on that. Last little thing on this scene mean.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Because we're doing things. If you want to isolate Israel and you, Mr. Prime Minister, give this stupid speech about Sparta, that's you. We're not going to isolate ourselves and what you're doing. We're not going to keep covering because we're not going to get isolated with you. That's not how we're doing this. Score.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. Last little thing on this.

[Rahm Emanuel]

So speaking of President Clinton, who is the superpower?

[Tommy Vietor]

The fucking superpower. We're going to take a quick break, but before we do, Please listen for 30 more seconds. That's your gift to me this holiday season. If you like Crooked Media, if you want to support the work we're doing, please consider becoming a subscriber. Go to crooked.com/friends. It's the best way you could support what we're doing here. You also get tons of great bonus content like Polar Coaster from Dan Pfeiffer where he digs deep into all the polls. He's doing an end of the year wrap up and looking at what all the data might mean going into Trump's, you know, lame duck 2026 midterm year. There's all sorts. Lots of fun shows like Terminally Online. There's bonus behind the scenes stuff. You get lots of great content including ad free episodes of your favorite cricket shows. But also it really helps us as an organization. So crooked.com friends.

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[Rahm Emanuel]

Nice.

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[Tommy Vietor]

Ben Rhodes wrote in his book that you once jokingly referred to him as Hamas. People on the left have taken this anecdote and interpreted as showing that you didn't care about Palestinian rights. People on the right seem to think they like to throw it in Ben's face and suggest you think he was a literal terrorist sympathizer. Do you want to clarify whether in that moment you thought Ben was living in a tunnel somewhere?

[Rahm Emanuel]

I still think academia is a tunnel. No, as I. Well, first of all, you are talking about John Kerry, as chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, calls the president's on the road. He says, Hamas wants to hand me a letter. I said, well, take it. Fact.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I said, bring it. Bring it back so we can see it. I said, don't cut off the communication. And when as soon as the president was back, it was a domestic trip, I said, I approve this. And he says, good. So that's my background. I don't remember that anecdote, but sounds kind of accurate. So it's hard for me to argue about it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Sounds like a harmless joke.

[Rahm Emanuel]

No? Well, yeah, it was probably harmless, but obviously it cut a nerve with Ben because he remembers it. But look, we had disagreements, which is what you're supposed to have on policy and how best to the goal of what we were both trying to achieve. And I don't mean just isolating this to Ben and I. It's ironic. Ben would say what he said about me and then Bibi would say what I said. I think I'm perfectly positioned.

[Tommy Vietor]

You mentioned around a couple times, do you think President Trump was right to bomb Iran's nuclear sites?

[Rahm Emanuel]

The decision, yes. But let me walk back where I think we are. One is we made this threat by all means. Both Democrat Republican presidents have said all options are on the table. Right here was an option and you had a chance for once in a. Because if you didn't do it, you definitely would have been shorter than where we are from. A strategic setback. I actually think one of the things, Tommy, that's underappreciated right now. You have a lot of news around Ukraine. You have what China's doing vis a vis Japan and or Taiwan right now. I think this split between society and the government in Iran is an underappreciated, underreported story. I don't think three years from now Iran is going to be what you and I are sitting here today. You have there's a massive drought where they're talking about moving the capital out of Tehran.

[Tommy Vietor]

Huge drought.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I don't know if anybody knows this, but that's not a minor story. Two, there are bars popping up all over the place and the government can't and won't and will not shut them down. Women now are fully dressing and doing whatever they want as it relates the Hajib law that we talked about from cosmetics, etc. Fourth, music concerts that were restricted are happening all over the place. Fifth, there was recently a marathon run in which women were not were dressing like as if they were any Western city. There is a gulf of legitimacy between the society and the government that is wider than we've ever experienced. Now, a lot of people said the revolution or the collapse of the government is right around the corner. So that I could also be the 20th wrong predictor. But in the last dozen years, you have had three separate manifestations of domestic civil unrest. Something is bubbling. You've also had the economic pressure by the west, led by the United States. And you have given that the government and most importantly the security apparatus failed in its ability to protect the country. I think the religious. And you have, lastly, I should just say a head of state who's 80 plus years old, too old, and there's a transition of power. All those data points always historically, but point to something dramatically about to happen. So the breaking. Yeah, I don't know. It doesn't mean that it goes reformist. I should probably add the President of Iran just said, I can't fix this.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, that was a weird quote.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That was. Yeah. You and I would have grasped him by the collar, pulled him back into the Oval. We're not saying that that's. No. I don't know what happened with the truth medication, but we're changing the dosage here. No, I think so what. Something is. Something's not good in Denmark, to quote William Shakespeare. So something is amiss there and it's not on anybody's radar screen as like the last proposal between the Russians and Ukrainians, for good reason. But something long, short and medium term is happening there of massive significance where the relationship between society and government is under a fundamental change. Does it lead to revolution? I don't know. But when you have that transition of power, there's going to be a break. That's my prediction.

[Tommy Vietor]

So just on the Iranian front, do they go.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I mean, do you think that's a wrong analysis?

[Tommy Vietor]

No, I think it's an interesting analysis. I'm watching as closely as you are. I just think on the nuclear front, I mean, you know, the tale of the tape is, you're right, everyone, every Democrat, Obama included, Republican said all options are on the table, that Obama cuts the jcpoa, the Iran nuclear deal, the US Pulls out of it unilaterally, even though the Iranians are complying. His own staff, his national security team is like, don't do this. This is making us safer. Then he gets into these talks with the Iranians, you know, sort of this iteration this last year. He says he wants to cut a deal, but now they're. The Trump administration is like bragging to the press about how they were actually lying and they were just saying they wanted more talks to, you know, give the Israelis covers to go bomb the shit out.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That's crazy. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

And I just worry about American credibility because who's going to cut a deal with this?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Well, here's the thing, though. So let's take the credibility and thread it. I happen to think when President Obama said to Syria that you're going to cross a red line and we didn't execute on that, it hurt America's credibility. You have a situation, Israel's debombing what they're doing, et cetera. We always had set all options on the table. Had we not chosen to do that, I think American credibility would have taken a hit. I'm not wrong about, look, I supported the agreement with Iran. It's a 5149, but I leaned down the 51. It was not a 80 20. It wasn't a 60 40. That's just my view. It was a close call. It was a bet that if you stymied the nuclear peace, that this thing that I'm talking about, that's happening now because of the demographics of Iran, the youth who wanted to be part of the world would desire. That was the basic bet. Now, what it didn't do was deal with the Shiite crescent from Hezbollah to Syria, et cetera. And what it didn't was deal with the technology on missile delivery, which are false to that agreement. There were blemishes on that agreement.

[Tommy Vietor]

They were part of it.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Right. I mean, look, every agree did do everything. Yeah. As I, you know, I don't know if you know this, but the Obamacare didn't do everything on health care.

[Tommy Vietor]

Exactly.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Right. You just basically you make a decision that this loaf of, this slice of the loaf of the bread is good, if not good enough. Okay. And those were two things that were big problems. You had to make a decision. Were they problems enough not to do it? And that's why I say the President was right to do it. But I'm conscious of it. It's a 5149 call. That was his option on the table. But he always said to get there the military kinetic option had to be there. There was a chance given that what Iran was doing in the final three months prior to that of not participating in the international community and not really opening up the full kimono, you could set back their nuclear timeline. And so again that too to bombing was a 5149 decision. If you asked me, I think it was the right decision.

[Tommy Vietor]

She's worried we're going to be doing it again pretty soon. But you know, we'll see. I do.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That's actually the two things I'd keep a flashing light as Gaza stalls and Israel gets filled with their hubris, specifically the Prime Minister and not make a not have the courage to make the most of the strategic window he has that the IDF gave him. I worry about his decision, what he's going to do with Hezbollah, with Hezbollah up in Lebanon and what he's gonna do that he thinks he has an opportunity to continue to keep Iran on their back heel. And I do worry about that.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

That's why I think America power is not to say us closely aligned. But here is our position and anytime you're going to endanger our strategic position, that's when we have a gulf between us. It's not our job to stay close to you, it's your job to stay close to us.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, yeah. I'm going super long. So you tell me when you gotta go.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I gotta catch a flight. What time is it?

[Tommy Vietor]

10:56.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay. You get like we're gonna do five, no more than 10 minutes, but five.

[Tommy Vietor]

Okay, great.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Okay.

[Tommy Vietor]

All right. So fast around.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Let's go. World globe.

[Tommy Vietor]

So you were Biden's ambassador to Japan.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Rumor has it you're still an ally.

[Tommy Vietor]

You're still an ally.

[Rahm Emanuel]

You had doubts, Tommy. You did not think that it could go three years, let alone three months. Is an ally.

[Tommy Vietor]

Oh, God bless you. There's a lot of turnover over there. So they have a new prime minister, Sanai Takei. She's the first woman to serve as prime minister. Interesting person. Ultra conservative, kind of wonky nationalist like Shinzo Abe protege. But she made waves right out of the gate.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

By saying that the Chinese invade Taiwan. That is like a so called existential threat which would allow Japan under their constitution to deploy troops and use force. That didn't go over well in Beijing. They led to this war of words, diplomatic crisis. And then earlier this month Tokyo says Chinese fighter jets locked radar on their F15s for like 30 minutes.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And it took the United States 10 days, two weeks to say to the long pole, our most trusted ally, that we're going to stand behind you.

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Which is crazy.

[Rahm Emanuel]

With a B52 and some exercises.

[Tommy Vietor]

Which is crazy.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yes.

[Tommy Vietor]

And I'm wondering.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And everybody in the rest of the region was watching the United States fumble the ball.

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, so that's sort of the bigger point. Like, first of all, was this a rookie move on her part? How do you, how did you read what she said? And also, how worried are we that we got like rising China, increasingly nationalist and militarized Japan and then the US who seemed willing to just like sell out Taiwan and walk away if we can get an economic deal from the Chinese?

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah, I just saw the military package by the president that was pretty robust on the check Congress.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Rahm Emanuel]

It did go $11 billion. It was kind of robust. You might be right. I thought it was announced by the administration.

[Tommy Vietor]

Maybe I'm, I could be wrong.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Ok, so let's, let's go on the core here. I don't think her move was rookie. She actually enunciated what had been the policy. And I actually think what China's upset is now it's explicit. What China never wanted was the cost to be explicit. And it isolated China in the region. My constant refrain when I was in the administration and I think we were there, not that I shaped it, but I not that I declared it, but I influenced it, which was our goal is to isolate the isolator. China's strategy is to constantly take one country, use political, economic and other type of power to isolate them, crush them, but by building the coalition of Australia, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, India, Canada, that China is the isolated and they knew it. That's why. So I think what she did is the right. She said what was always implied, never clear, and now China knows the cost. Second, they're doing a series of things on the island chains of Okinawa that go all the way to within 67 miles of Taiwan that things that we worked on that I thought would take a decade are happening. Third, my guess is what she is doing helps him at home. And what she's doing is helping her at home politically because she's in the 70s. As I said, she's the only head of state in the entire developed world that's above 50%. And that's a telling sign. And I think she's done a unique thing as a woman. She's gotten the urban centers of Japan excited about this change. On the other hand, her policies are all very old and traditional. And conservative. So she's kept the LDP's rural base, brought them back into the fold when they were fading away. So she's got this kind of very interesting solid position based on the fact that both by person and by policy, she's put together a coalition that the LDP has been struggling for 20 years to get politically third. You know, Japan is the long pole of America's policy in Indo Pacific.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, a lot of truth.

[Rahm Emanuel]

And for her to say one, they went up under our watch from 1% to 2% of GDP to defense spending from the 9th to the 3rd largest capabilities. They just did something recently that everybody would have said you couldn't do without a constitutional change. They're selling military equipment to Australia that used to be banned. So they are crossing thresholds because of the security threat. Now if the United States was all in giving confidence to our allies Korea, Japan, Australia, not doing what we did in India, which is ridiculous, we have a partner now for a robust strategy that would say to China here are the costs for what you're gonna do. And you better do. You better be thinking about this. And remember one other thing. China's in my view first strategy vis a vis Taiwan is gonna be more of a kind of quarantine.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, a little blockade.

[Rahm Emanuel]

You cannot do that. Given where we are in the Philippines and where Japan is on the southern islands of Okinawa that come part of that first island chain. It is not impossible but very difficult once those capacities are fully mobilized. And so to me the short end of your comments is I think that it wasn't a rookie mistake and I think it's incumbent upon us not to make her look like she has to back down to China because that will not stay in the Japan periphery. That will reverberate in the region. And if we look like we're weak and we look like we're not a permanent Pacific power and presence, there is no way that countries in that region, and I'm thinking of Korea and Japan, don't think over the next 10 years that they have to go nuclear.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Rahm Emanuel]

If you think the cost of non proliferation is expensive, you're going to get sticker shock on proliferation.

[Tommy Vietor]

No shit. Yeah, it's real scary. Last question. Got to get to round it.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

I've been thinking a lot about like early Obama era counterterrorism policies. A lot of critics say there are way too many drone strikes. I the further I get from that time in government, I tend to agree with them.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Really?

[Tommy Vietor]

And while I tend to feel like the so called you know, war on terror writ large has been an abject failure. When you see Al Qaeda, like affiliates, ISIS spreading everywhere. Right. Now, the counterpoint to that is when you were Chief of Staff, 2009, 2010.

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There were some real deals, scary threats.

[Tommy Vietor]

To the United States. You know, the Christmas Day bomber, Times.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Square bomber, the guy from Colorado. I'll walk you through that story.

[Tommy Vietor]

Najiba Elzazi, right? That's right.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I'll never forget.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes, near misses like we luck saved us from catastrophe, Right. And then there were these counterterrorism policies and a lot of those things haven't happened again. So I'm just curious, when you reflect on that time and you think about how you'd keep the country safe from terrorism, how that informs your thinking.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I've always. So I don't know if you remember this story. Some young man in the NSA picked up a word on the telecommunications that said the marriage worked. And he just caught him and says, nobody says that. And then he starts to unravel this and where the call was originally made. Now all the smarty pants, pooh, poohed this kid. And I, not just me, but the president myself, Biden. Well, run it down. Turns out they find out he goes to Walmart, buys 10 backpacks. He goes to one of those kind of bulk buying when you buy stuff for the beauty show. All these giant cases that are essential materials for homemade bombs. And then all the smarty pants who thought the kid was out of his mind because he caught the word. The marriage worked. That's what you say after 20 years, not in 10 seconds, that he was onto something. Then we put. We started finding other stuff in his credit card. And then we put helicopters. And we find out he's starting to drive to New York. Right, to New York. Yeah. And we had cars to New Jersey. So I'll never forget that. 96 hours. I must have aged. And I think the President did too. And we aged. Although we had confidence, we had them in a sense, we had them in our line of vision. But that was breathtaking. And there were other events that you have identified.

[Tommy Vietor]

This guy named Najibelazazi, who along with two friends, was gonna blow up the New York City subway.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I don't know if you remember, but the FBI got ahead of the police department or. No, I think it's the system. No, the police department moved ahead. And it's classic case of the FBI and local law enforcement not exactly being on the same page. But that said got him before anything. And the imam, it's not clear whether he knew it or was protecting him or was acting like he didn't know him, et cetera, or what his intent was. So to me, I haven't, you know, Tommy, I gotta be honest. I hadn't really thought about it in the sense did we did our actions have a reaction that made the situation worse? I do think you have to think about two things. One, people are trying to do harm to the United States. Our border, specifically on the south, have been used by enemies for their advantage. And you have to be that doesn't Donald Trump pulling people's green cards, not letting kids go to school. That's not the end. That's what I want. But I haven't thought a lot recently about whether the policies we were pursuing in the quote, unquote, in the name of the war on terror, both overseas and here, actually perpetuated or accentuated. Because I think actually on one scorecard, we haven't really had a local terrorism attack vis a vis kind of a 911 like. So at one level, from a homeland front, it has worked. Whether it has created its own. The terrorist cells just there's as many before, there's just more of them spread out and smaller. That just may be what both of those are happening in real time, which is we've protected the home front, but we've created more threats overseas.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it's a complicated story. Rahm Emanuel, thank you so much for sitting down.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Yeah, thank you.

[Tommy Vietor]

Great to see you. Could ask you another hour happy and.

[Rahm Emanuel]

A healthy new year. And mazel tough to you and your wife and the young kids.

[Tommy Vietor]

Thank you.

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[Rahm Emanuel]

A massage chair might seem a bit extravagant, especially these days. Eight different settings, adjustable intensity. Plus, it's heated, and it just feels so good. Yes, a massage chair might seem a bit extravagant, but when it can come with a car, suddenly it seems quite practical. The Volkswagen Tiguan Packed with premium features like available massaging front seats, it only feels extravagant.