Loading summary
Transcript273 lines
- [00:00]
Jon Favreau
Pod Save America is brought to you by Simplisafe Home Security. Right now you're listening to us. Maybe you have headphones on. Maybe you're at the gym, maybe you're driving, you're locked in. If your security camera sends you an alert right now, are you going to see it right away? Probably not. Passive security relies on you paying attention. Real security works even when you're listening to Love It Rant. Traditional security systems only act after someone has already broken in. That's too late. Simplisafe's active guard outdoor protection can help prevent break ins before they happen or while other security companies lock you in. Simplisafe comes with no long term contract. They earn your trust every day by keeping you safe and satisfied. They're so confident in the protection they provide, they even back it with an anti theft guarantee. SimpleLife protects over 4 million people. They have 20 years of experience in home security. They were just named best home security system of 2026 by U.S. news World Report. And here's John Lovett right here.
- [00:50]
Jon Lovett
I set up a SimpliSafe home security system. Incredibly easy to do once it was set up, Boom. Secure. Good app, good customer support. Good.
- [01:00]
Jon Favreau
Just good. We love it. Right now our listeners can get 50% off their new SimpliSafe system at simplisafe.com crooked that's simplisafe.com crooked. There's no safe like Simplisafe with Verbocare.
- [01:15]
Jon Lovett
Help is always ready before, during and after your stay. We've planned for the plot twists so support is always available because a great trip starts with peace of mind.
- [01:48]
Jon Favreau
Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- [01:50]
Jon Lovett
I'm Jon Levitt.
- [01:51]
Jon Favreau
Tommy's off this week. I think he's with his friend Lindsay at Disney World.
- [01:55]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, Lindsey. Lindsey was saying that he wanted to go to Epcot and get the UK and France to take over Morocco. I don't know what that was about.
- [02:06]
Jon Favreau
I love the countries at Epcot. All right. On today's show, we'll talk about how Trump is touting diplomatic progress with Iran by threatening the country with war crimes. Why most experts think we're all underestimating the economic disaster that's coming. And Republicans new plan to pay for the war by cutting your health care. We'll also talk about the new fight between House and Senate Republicans that's keeping the Department of Homeland Security shut down while Congress takes a two week vacation. And of course, the critical work of building Trump's ballroom is about to begin. Even though no one wants it and the design makes no sense. Then you'll hear Tommy's interview with Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek. Quick reminder, please consider becoming a crooked media subscriber if you haven't already, so that you don't miss out on any of the great content or putting out. For our Friends of the Pod subscribers, get our new extra episode of Pod Save America called Pod Save America. Only friends. Other subscriber only shows like Polar Coaster with Dan Pfeiffer, access to all of our excellent substack newsletters like Pod Save America, open tabs ad free episodes of all your favorite crooked pods, and you get to feel good about supporting one of the few independent, proudly pro democracy media outlets left in Trump's America. So head to crooked.com friends and subscribe. All right, let's get to the news. We are now entering the second month of Donald Trump's brief excursion in Iran. 50,000Americans are now deployed in the Middle east. More than 8,700 people have died. Tens of thousands are wounded. Millions have been displaced. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to the worst oil shock in history and a global economic crisis that's getting worse by the day. President keeps trying to calm the markets by claiming that there's been, quote, great progress in direct negotiations with Iran while simultaneously threatening to destroy the entire country's access to electricity and water, which would be a war crime. And something you definitely say when you're on the verge of a diplomatic breakthrough. On Sunday night, after multiple reports that Trump is nearing a decision on sending in ground troops to take control of the Strait and or remove nuclear material from inside Iran, the President talked to reporters on Air Force One about the fateful choice that's weighing heavily on his mind.
- [04:17]
Donald Trump
I did something today. We just got these in from the architects. A lot of people are talking about how beautiful the ballroom floor is. Another view. This is coming from right opposite the Treasury Building. Beautiful Capitol, beautiful building. One of the. I think it'll be the finest ballroom of its kind anywhere in the world. A lot of people are giving in really good reviews. Some are giving good reviews without even seeing the building. Just like we're ahead of schedule on the ballroom in a much bigger way. We're ahead of schedule with Iran doing extremely well. And I think. I fucking kidding. You never know with Iran because we negotiate with them and then we always have to blow them up. I think we'll make a deal with them. Pretty sure whether it's possible we won't. I Think we've had regime change. We can't do much better than that. The regime that was really bad, really evil was the first one that was done. The second was appointed, and they're gone. They're all dead. Other than one who may have a little life. And then the third group and the third group of people that seem to be much more reasonable. It truly is regime change.
- [05:33]
Jon Favreau
He really did it. He did the State of the Union segue that we always joke about between domestic and foreign policy, except it was. And as we are ahead of schedule on the ballroom, so are we ahead of schedule in Iran?
- [05:48]
Jon Lovett
It's actually a great metaphor, I think, but maybe we can save that for the ballroom section of the show. Unbelievable. Unbelievable.
- [05:59]
Jon Favreau
All right, I got the war going on, the oil shock, this DHS is shut down. I gotta go back to the press and the plane and Air Force One and just talk to them. I'm gonna take some questions. So I got some pictures of the ballroom. That's how he starts.
- [06:12]
Jon Lovett
Sorry, guys, I can't focus on the war today. I also got a board meeting at the Kennedy Center. I'm late to.
- [06:18]
Jon Favreau
So, Lovett, what are your theories about why Trump seems so eager to allege progress in negotiations that no one else has been able to confirm are even happening?
- [06:26]
Jon Lovett
So, I'm sorry, I actually think it does make sense. So what's happening? He is signaling to markets that the conflict won't escalate with the hopes that that reduces the volatility of the markets. That allows also those who support the conflict to say, those who are afraid that it's spiraling out of control, that Trump is actually being quite reasonable. And then when he says the regime's already been changed, the new guys are so reasonable, they're easy to work with. He's suggesting that while maybe in the past they've used negotiation as a cover to murder everyone in the room or do strikes on Iran. That is a new group of people. And you can take my word that you can trust what I'm saying now, because I genuinely want someone in Iran, I can work with the other side.
- [07:13]
Jon Favreau
You mean he's sending that signal to Iran? Yeah.
- [07:16]
Jon Lovett
And then the other side of it, though, is Trump is trying to kind of put an asbestos blanket on the fire he started in the markets. That is not just because he wants the consequences of the ongoing conflict to have less of an impact on the US he wants to increase his leverage over Iran. The less pain we're experiencing, the more leverage he has in the conflict, which frees him up to escalate, which suggests that escalation won't be as big of a price for the US to pay. And when he says that we're already negotiating, Iran knows whether that's true or not, that that's Trump telling the world that if it falls apart, Iran is to blame. So it's. Trump is trying to lower the cost of what happens if he decides to, to escalate. That. That, to me is like. But the only way that makes sense is if Trump is someone who only thinks short term and discounts the cost of everyone thinking he's a liar in the future. But that's what he does. That's. That's. Trump is only a rational actor in the very short term. And so I think that's how you kind of can make sense of the threats of escalation and the promise of negotiation.
- [08:16]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I was thinking about this. Like, if. So if you're Donald Trump and you have decided privately that you have painted yourself into a corner and that you're kind of fucked and need to get out of this war and you're looking for an off ramp, what are your options for how to communicate that publicly? Because it's. I mean, no president would really want to do this, but especially Trump. You're not going to be like, I really want a deal. You're not going to be like, come to the table. So you have to act like everything is going wonderfully and they're the ones who are begging for a deal. And you also bet that no one's going to believe them because they're the Iranian regime. So if they, they contradict you, then who cares? And so part of this, I think, is to just say, like, yeah, we've dominated them so severely that they are just begging for a deal and things are going well while, like you said, communicating, I guess, to Iran that you actually do want some negotiations. And we should just know, like, yeah, could there be secret negotiations happening here and there? Like, maybe. But, you know, Pakistan has offered to host the negotiations. They already hosted some countries. The United States and Iran were not there. No representatives were there. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said today that, like, there's been no talks directly with the United states since the 28th, since February 28th, and that there won't be any talks until the military campaign ends. Also, the New York Times had this piece, too, that it is unclear who's in charge. And this is, like, according to Western and American intelligence officials. And so they don't really know who they're negotiating with or who has the authority to make decisions in Iran right now, though? I noticed this from intelligence officials in the piece, too. It says, what's more, officials say hardliners within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have become more influential, exerting more power than the religious leadership nominally in charge. So not a great sign that the irgc, who are the, you know, the most hard line hardliners in the whole country, are the ones in charge right now.
- [10:15]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, we also just. Everyone involved in this is a egomaniac liar. So it's just like impol. Because it's hard to know what's really happening because they're also negotiating in public. Right. Like, we know some of the states that the terms of the negotiation tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, what have you. Right? Like, they.
- [10:32]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, but, like, that's a good example of what Iran has asked for and what the United States wants in their 15 fucking point plan. They're so far, they're not even negotiating over the same thing. Like, like Iran's like, yeah, we don't, we don't want any more. We don't want US Military bases anywhere in the Middle East.
- [10:50]
Jon Lovett
Yeah.
- [10:51]
Jon Favreau
Like, it's not. I just think they're. I don't know how they even get kind of close right now.
- [10:55]
Jon Lovett
Well, it's like a game of chicken, except we've already rammed the cars into each other. It's like, I don't know, what are you. We're just yelling at each other across two blown airbags.
- [11:05]
Jon Favreau
It's. Fuck it. It's really, it's really bad. I mean, Trump also gave an interview to the Financial Times where he said, quote, maybe we take Carg island, maybe we don't. And, quote, to be honest with you, my favorite thing is to get the oil in Iran. But some stupid people back in the U.S. say, why are you doing that? But they're stupid people. That's a great quote. He's also claiming that Iran's parliamentary speaker has been allowing a few oil tankers through the strait as a, quote, tribute and a sign of respect to the United States. Though that same parliamentary speaker is moving forward in Parliament with a plan to institute a permanent toll for all ships passing through Hormuz and then blocking Israel and the United States completely. The speaker also said, now this is, remember, this is the hottest option. This is the new guy that Trump has said that they're probably negotiating with. He also said that Iranian forces are, quote, waiting for U.S. ground troops to enter the country so they can, quote, set Them on fire. Does he seem like someone looking for an off ramp?
- [12:03]
Jon Lovett
So just trying to see the other side of this. Take the same incentives in reverse. Iran has to say that the US and global markets will pay a very high price for the conflict continuing that Iran will endure a long term conflict and Trump's threats of escalation are not effective leverage. And you would do this while underplaying negotiations, while signaling with actions that you actually do prefer a deal? Because for the same reason, Trump wants to claim negotiations are ongoing in case he escalates. Iran wants to say there are no negotiations so they can blame Trump if he does decide to go after Kharg Island. So it's I like, I think it is totally possible we are ramping up towards boots on the ground in Iran. Right. We have Trump threatening it, we have Trump moving troops into the region, while at the same time you have Rubio saying he doesn't believe troops on the ground are necessary. Right. That's what we're getting on the record. The problem with all of this is both assurances to the market and threats that you don't act on. Right. Those both have a clock. Right? Like if the assurances stop working, suddenly Iran's leverage goes up. Right. What does Trump do to respond? Does he cave? Does he take a great blow to his personal ego to end the conflict in a way that seems like it redounds to Iran's benefit? Or does he have to reset the clock by doing something escalatory? Right. Like that? That's where, that's what makes us all so dangerous. Because Trump only thinks one or two days ahead. And so that, to me, is what makes all of this so alarming. You can see your way to look, look, you're right. They're so far apart, we have no idea what the actual contours of a negotiation would look like. But the truth is both Iran and the United States would benefit from the conflict ending. That is like the undergirding truth of this entire war that never should have been fought in the first place. But that can often be true while a war escalates and spins out of control.
- [13:55]
Jon Favreau
Caroline Levitt was asked about all this and sort of Trump's conflicting messages at the briefing. And she's talking about the negotiations and who they're negotiating with. And she said at one point, some of the previous leaders are now no longer on planet Earth because they lied to the United States and they strung us along in negotiations. And that was unacceptable to the President, which is why many of the previous leaders were killed. I do not. I think if you were one of the current leaders in Iran, I think that. I don't know if that gets you to the table. Negotiate with us or die.
- [14:29]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, yeah.
- [14:31]
Jon Favreau
You think that's gonna get them, get them to the table, get them into a negotiating mood?
- [14:35]
Jon Lovett
Trump has this belief in this strategic ambiguity. And I'm not imputing secret method and like magic to Donald Trump's ability to negotiate, but he absolutely believes that there's value to being ambiguous, that that gives you leverage. But eventually, eventually you have to actually say what you're for, right? Like, lay out what the actual end game would look like and accept some kind of a deal. Or the conflict goes on forever. The, like threats from the White House press secretary that you're going to kill more people unless you get a deal that has favorable terms. Like, all of that is the stick, but, like, what is the carrot? What does the deal look like? What would you accept? It can't look like Obama's deal, Right? Because that's the dreaded Obama deal. It has to be favorable enough that Iran's willing to accept it. So what does it look like to be a real world actor here?
- [15:27]
Jon Favreau
So he's, you know, there's all these reports over the weekend, like we said that. So they're thinking of taking Carg island or some of the other islands. They can control the oil or at least use the. Use the control of the islands as a bargaining chip in a negotiation. Because I think, as Trump and the rest of the government recognize, that maybe taking Kharg island is easier than holding Kharg island, because then you have a bunch of troops on these islands, and now the Iranians can just, you know, shoot away at them and try to pick them off. And you've got, you know, holding it is. Is pretty difficult. And the same with the incredibly complicated and dangerous mission of going into Iran and getting out the nuclear material. And so you're starting to hear, you know, Rubio said maybe we don't need ground troops for the objectives. And they think that maybe in a deal with Iran, you get the Iranians to, like, go with you to get the nuclear material to take it out or, or give it to themselves or whatever else. And. But then the question is, why would the Iranians voluntarily give the nuclear material to the US or open up the Strait of Hormuz? And maybe Trump thinks they would do it so that they wouldn't have all of their power plants and desalination plants bombed and that the bombing would stop. Although Trump's like, we have about 3,000 targets left, and then we're done. So then what happens when the 3,000 targets are done and the regime is still standing and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and the nuclear materials are still inside Iran, and from the end, then you're fucked. Then you have nothing else to do.
- [16:49]
Jon Lovett
And then on the other side of
- [16:50]
Jon Favreau
it, which is why he's threatening war crimes for the civilian population, because he thinks he's like, well, I need some kind of a leverage.
- [16:54]
Jon Lovett
Well, and I don't even. Like, he's just thinking of it as something very hard to rebuild quickly, something that would exact a great price for the. The government. But. But on the other side of it, that's. The two sides were incredibly far apart, apparently before this war. Right. There wasn't a deal on the table before this war. And so why would Iran suddenly say, oh, we're going to toll the Strait of Hormuz, and here are all these other things we're going to demand? Because they have to anchor this into a negotiation in which there's some cost to the US Some benefit to Iran for having endured this war. Right. They can't just go back to the status quo ante before minus the nuclear program. At least that's what you would. That's what you do in a negotiation.
- [17:34]
Jon Favreau
For them, the regime surviving even with all this damage is a win for them, because then they can say, and they can show the world the United States and Israel gave it everything they had, and they did not destroy the regime. We're still standing. We were able to control the Strait of Hormuz, and now we get, you know, we lost a bunch of our leaders, but, like, we're Iran and they're the United States and Israel, and we're still standing right now.
- [17:57]
Jon Lovett
Yeah.
- [17:57]
Jon Favreau
And they're like, that. That's a win. It's not like the. The biggest win for them, but it's still a win. You know, the other.
- [18:02]
Jon Lovett
There's been just all these reports that, oh, wow, the Iranians are actually surprised by how easy it was to secure the Strait of Hormuz, that they've learned something from this conflict that gives them greater leverage in the future. All of this is about making the war a heavy price for the US to have to pay.
- [18:18]
Jon Favreau
I noticed that the Rubio did a interview today, and I think with Stephanopoulos, and then, like, the State Department was tweeting out some of the clips, and the State Department's like, the objectives of Epic Fury are clear destruction of The Iranian Air Force, destruction of the Navy, diminishing of missile launching capability and destruction of factories. That was it. Those are the, those are the objectives. Nothing on the nuclear material. Nothing on. Obviously, we've left behind, like the Iranian people rising up and taking over their government. We've left that behind too. Not even something on the strait. Reopening the strait, which was surprising, although it is kind of ridiculous that now the objective of the war has become undoing.
- [19:02]
Jon Lovett
Undoing, a retaliation.
- [19:03]
Donald Trump
Yeah, yeah.
- [19:04]
Jon Favreau
So that. But like, is there a scenario where they're just like leaving and they're like, well, we'll figure out this straight at some point. But our objectives were very clear. We sunk a bunch of their ships and destroyed a bunch of their missiles and some factories that build the missiles. And that's it. That's all we wanted.
- [19:20]
Jon Lovett
And the goal of the war was to destroy their missile capability so that in the event of a war, they wouldn't have the missile capability. Rubio also was actually very clear about this. He said, he said, and almost as an aside, that after the conflict is over, I'm paraphrasing, but after the conflict is over, then we're going to have to figure out what to do about the Strait of Hormuz. So they've even conceded that this is a problem that's gonna be continuing.
- [19:44]
Jon Favreau
Cause I think if they decide not to go with ground troops, then they're gonna wanna say, we didn't do the ground troops. Big win, they surrendered, they're begging for a deal. And you know, we're gonna do some kind of negotiations, but we're done, we're out. And the rest of the world's gonna be like, well, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, there's still a toll and blah, blah. And they're like, oh, we'll figure that out later.
- [20:02]
Josh Turek
Foreign.
- [20:10]
Jon Lovett
This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Whether you're dealing with anxiety, depression, conflict in relationships, or simply need an impartial third party to help you deal with daily stress, better Help is there to connect you with the support you need. Better Help therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences in their 12 plus years of experience. Experience. An industry leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored Rex with over 30, 000 therapists. BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 6 million people globally and it works with an average rating of 4.9 out of 5 for a live session based on over 1.7 million client reviews. We love therapy. Therapy's great. You should get some therapy. Everybody should get therapy. We're therapy boys. And as I said before, I'm not currently in therapy because I'm so busy.
- [21:03]
Jon Favreau
It's make time for you, but when
- [21:06]
Jon Lovett
life is feeling overwhelming, therapy can help. Sign up and get 10% off@betterhelp.com PSA that's betterhelp.com P S A
- [21:16]
Jon Favreau
pod Save America is brought to you by hims. ED is more common than you think and simpler to treat than ever. Through hims, you can connect online with a licensed provider to access personalized treatment options discreetly and on your terms. HIMS offers access to ED treatment options ranging from personalized products to trusted generic that cost 95% less than brand names if prescribed. You shouldn't have to go out of your way to feel like yourself. HIMSS brings expert care straight to you with 100% online access to personalized treatments that put your goals first. This isn't one size fits all care that forgets you in the waiting room. It's your health and goals put first with real medical providers making sure you get what you need to get results. Think of HIMS as your digital front door that gets you back to your old self with simple 100% online access to trusted treatments for ED and more all in one place.
- [21:58]
Jon Lovett
Take that grower to the big show with hims you know.
- [22:03]
Jon Favreau
To get simple online access to personalized affordable care for ED, weight loss and more, visit hims.com crooked that's hims.com crooked for your free online visit hims.com crooked featured products include compounded drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety, effectiveness or quality. Prescription requires the website for details, restrictions and important safety information. Actual price will depend on product and subscription plan. Let's talk about the economic fallout from the war because that is Iran's biggest leverage right now. Economists and energy industry experts keep telling reporters that the fallout is only just beginning, even if the war ends soon. Bloomberg talked to more than three dozen of these experts and said that, quote one message was repeated over and over. The world still hasn't grasped the severity of the situation. Other countries are already dealing with energy shortages, food supply shortages, price shocks. Here's European Central Bank President President Christine Lagarde summing up the view that the worst is yet to come in an interview with the Economist. We are facing a real shock that is probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.
- [23:10]
Jon Lovett
Do you think there is just a
- [23:11]
Jon Favreau
sort of blind optimism that somehow this
- [23:14]
Jon Lovett
is going to be over and the world will go back to normal?
- [23:16]
Jon Favreau
Well, maybe they are overly optimistic and determined to stay optimistic. Too much has already been damaged and there is no way that it can be restored in a matter of months. Most people are actually talking about years. And I think this is a. A crisis where we are learning almost bit by bit, day by day, what the actual consequences will be, what countries
- [23:35]
Jon Lovett
will be most affected, what of the
- [23:37]
Jon Favreau
commodities will be the most in demand. I saw some people comparing this moment to March of 2020, where a lot of the wonks and nerds and public health experts and economists were warning about how bad things were about to get because of COVID While the public hadn't caught up quite yet. The top energy advisor for the S and P called the relatively mild market response so far that we're seeing, quote, irrational optimism. What do you think?
- [24:05]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, I think people think about this as oil being affected, but. There's helium, which is needed for semiconductor manufacturing and MRI machines. Qatar produces 35% of the world helium. Key ingredients for fertilizer like ammonia, urea, sulfur and phosphates. You have liquid natural gas. Aluminum production in Qatar is down, Dow told its customers, increasing the price of plastic. John,
- [24:35]
Jon Favreau
thank you for that. It's also. So it's not just hitting the rest of the world, probably even harder than the United States, and we're already seeing that. Just going to read you a couple of quotes from different world leaders. South Korea's president today said, quote, the world is in turmoil over the energy crisis. The situation is so serious that it has even kept me up at night. The immediate problem is grave enough, but the outlook ahead seems even more unstable. The situation is worse than expected. Italy's defense minister. Of course, I have to make another hit for that. I am forced now to think. I am forced now to know things about what would happen in the coming week and the effects it will have on the economy and our daily lives that no longer allow me to sleep. Not a lot of sleep for foreign leaders all around the world.
- [25:30]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, there are ways the US Might be insulated. We have a lot. We have a lot of natural gas and more helium than Qatar. But the possibility of a global recession will not spare us. I think this is it. I think this was like a world Historic mistake, John. I'm really worried about it.
- [25:57]
Jon Favreau
Okay, I'm glad. Anyway, we're taking this seriously.
- [26:01]
Jon Lovett
We are taking this.
- [26:02]
Jon Favreau
Talk to us like in a couple weeks. You play back that clip when. Yeah, yeah, there's like 2, 000 points in the stock market and there's, you know, gas lines everywhere. No, it's really bad.
- [26:12]
Jon Lovett
It's really bad.
- [26:13]
Jon Favreau
And we did that to prove a point. We were highlighting. Yes, highlighting the point.
- [26:18]
Jon Lovett
And if this gets this information in front of more people, perhaps that was the goal too. Yeah. And the destruction also, even if you open the strait, things will not bounce back. There'll be ripple effects for a long time. I genuinely think, like you see this with Rubio, he's implying this a lot of times that he's trying to tell the Europeans and other countries we need you to open the straight ahead moves because honestly, Iran is just like so mad at us. But also because it's going to hit you more, because we do actually have more helium. We do have natural gas. Right. We are insulated from some of this. But in the long term, the ripple effects of this, the way this will ricochet across all different sectors, all different countries, like it will come for us. We will not be spared.
- [26:58]
Jon Favreau
We are insulated better than other countries, but we are also more sensitive than other countries because our consumers are pussies. It's just like, oh, a couple cents. Like, no, they. Iran is banking on the fact here that, you know, American consumers paying higher gas prices is going to cause a much bigger political problem for Donald Trump, relatively speaking, than even some of these much more severe crises in the rest of the world. And we're not insulated because, you know, once there's a, if there's a global recession, God forbid, like that is going to affect the United States. You can't fucking escape that.
- [27:32]
Jon Lovett
And a recession while gas prices are cresting over $5 a gallon. People are already upset about, about prices like that is a worst case scenario politically for Trump and the.
- [27:43]
Jon Favreau
And again, we're talking about the strait being opened again. But like that attack in Qatar on the natural gas like knocked out roughly 28 million tons of supply from the market this year of liquid natural gas. That represents nearly the entire global supply growth forecast for 2026. It could take years. This is from the New York Times. Years for the flow of liquid natural gas from the Mideast to return to pre war levels. And that is just like forget if the straight open tomorrow. That's just, it's done, it's destroyed and
- [28:13]
Jon Lovett
that might benefit some American fossil fuel companies. That might actually help some prices. But we will. Consumers will not benefit from that. Consumers will pay for a global change in supply.
- [28:26]
Jon Favreau
Also Trump's jawboning the him trying to calm the markets with his crazy truths not really working anymore. It's already start like, like he did it. Well first of all, did you see our new guy in Iran that we're negotiating with the speaker of Parliament trolling Trump on Twitter now I did see this heads up. Pre market, so called news or truth is often just a setup for profit taking. Basically it's a reverse indicator. Do the opposite. If they pump it, short it, if they dump it, go long, see something tomorrow, you know the drill.
- [28:59]
Jon Lovett
The idea that we're in a back and forth where you have Trump trying to work the markets to avoid him feeling pressure to end the war and you have Iran trying to work the markets in the opposite direction just so publicly, so baldly. Because if the markets don't respond to what Trump is saying, he loses leverage in the negotiation. I mean maybe honestly as I'm talking myself into seeing it as a sign for hope. John.
- [29:19]
Jon Favreau
Well, but I think that like when Trump the latest truth when he said great progress and stuff like that, it just didn't. It's changing the markets less. Like the markets are responding not as much as they used to. The price of oil right now is still now way above 100. It was like 110, whatever.
- [29:36]
Jon Lovett
I don't remember which firm, but a firm has created a kind of pressure index. So there's a taco index that a financial firm has created and basically it looks at a couple different indicators to come together to put them together to suggest the amount of pressure Donald Trump is under to argue for when he will cave on something important and because the reason I think that matters is because yeah, you're right, the individual statements aren't causing the same kind of like corrections as we were seeing in the past. But I do think the underlying problem and it speaks to what's going on in this conflict too is that the markets ultimately expect Trump to respect the markets. Right. That, that, that the whole, the whole kind of irrational optimism of the markets is based on the idea that Donald Trump cares what happens to these markets. And that is like not something that's going to show ups and downs but is going to be baked into an overall expectation. Right. And the question is when does that give?
- [30:33]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, well that gives because at some point Donald Trump caring about the markets isn't enough. Donald Trump Respecting the markets or being worried about the markets isn't enough. Because if the oil isn't there or the gas isn't there, you know, like, or the fertilizer isn't there, there's nothing he can do about it.
- [30:47]
Jon Lovett
It stops being a symbolic television fight and it starts being a real world
- [30:51]
Jon Favreau
consequence, which is where you can see from the price of oil and the markets right now, like, that is where we're getting to now, where they realize, like, okay, Donald Trump can care all he wants about the stock market and his approval rating, all that stuff doesn't matter. He can't stop it. He doesn't have the only vote here. One group of people who can't be accused of irrational optimism are the MAGA types who've broken with Trump on Iran. There was a great Twitter exchange on Sunday where Ann Coulter tweeted, quote, this is Ann Coulter watching Fox News assure viewers the Iran war is going super well and Trump is a total stud is like watching the same network assure viewers that the Dominion voting Systems rigged the 2020 election and Trump was the winner. To which Marjorie Taylor Greene responded, quote, fox News is now the fake news. Brainwashing boomers to support what we voted against. What an exchange.
- [31:41]
Jon Lovett
I love it. There's nothing that makes me happier when Republicans get a taste for just a moment of what it feels like to be a Democrat. It's like they can't what is happening. They're misinforming the public. They're inoculating them against the reality of what's going on on the ground in a way that I find displeasing.
- [32:02]
Jon Favreau
Brainwashing the boomers. They just started brainwashing the boomers.
- [32:06]
Tommy Vietor
Hey, hey.
- [32:07]
Jon Lovett
Somebody call the police. Fox News has begun brainwashing the boomers.
- [32:12]
Jon Favreau
Breaking news. Things didn't seem to be going much better over at cpac. The annual conservative get together that just wrapped in Texas. Let's take a listen.
- [32:20]
Jon Lovett
A ground invasion of Iran will make our country poorer and less safe. It will mean higher gas prices, higher food prices, and I'm not sure we would end up killing more terrorists than we would create when it comes to Iran. How do you feel about that? I'm not happy.
- [32:38]
Tommy Vietor
I'm not happy at all.
- [32:39]
Jon Lovett
I mean, President Trump ran on no new wars.
- [32:42]
Josh Turek
I do question some of the things when it to comes, are we just going to bend over everything for Israel? You know, this isn't, you know, what I voted for.
- [32:49]
Jon Favreau
What I voted for was domestic policy change at home and, you know, realistic foreign policy.
- [32:52]
Tommy Vietor
I think a lot of people, conservatives,
- [32:55]
Jon Lovett
young conservatives right now, kind of disillusioned with Trump. And I would consider myself one of those.
- [33:00]
Jon Favreau
So what could he do to win you back? At this point?
- [33:04]
Jon Lovett
Not much.
- [33:05]
Jon Favreau
What a bunch of lib cucks. Was that a, was that a DSA meeting or was that.
- [33:11]
Jon Lovett
There was somebody, Matt Gaetz, There was somebody in the Times story said that Mag MAGA is dying and that it was like a young person that said they felt like they had more in common at this point with the left than they did with older members of the Republican.
- [33:23]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, she's. Yeah, she was like a 27 year old Florida strategist. Maga's dying. What a, what a, what a quote. Politico's up with a story full of more quotes like that from young men who attended. And we played this last week on a couple of our YouTubes. But you've probably seen the crowd unexpectedly cheered the mention of articles of impeachment from Matt Schlapp. What do you make of the seeming discrepancy between what the polls are showing in terms of MAGA support for the war and what we are seeing and hearing from both very prominent MAGA types and some of the attendees at cpac?
- [33:56]
Jon Lovett
So if you break up Trump supporters by age, and this is what Politico did as well, that more than 2/3 of those over 35 think Trump has a plan when it's less than half of those under 35, 2/3 of older MAGA men were willing to sacrifice American lives in Iran compared with less than half of younger MAGA men. If you get your news on television or through Facebook, kind of in the old economy. And the old economy looks a lot like what Marjorie Taylor Greene is saying about Fox. But if you're younger, you're not watching cable the same way young people. Forget maga. No young people are watching cable. So where are you getting your news? You're consuming it from digital right wing news, which is much less interventionist, much more heterodox generally. And so because it's an older coalition, a huge shift amongst younger supporters might not not show as big of an impact in the polls, but it does represent where they're headed. And I think the thing that's interesting about what you're seeing here at cpac, and I think same can probably be said about Turning Point USA is the whole old right wing media machine that Fox News came out of, radio came out of. It existed to create a space that was in defiance of the mainstream media and that was the enemy. The enemy was the mainstream media. And you were defying that, that consensus. But the attitude, whether it's Tucker Carlson or Daily Wire or any of these other. Or the Rogan kind of independent universe, it's less about defying any one institution or defining yourself against the mainstream media than it more is about just being comfortable with being heterodox and being willing to say when even your own side is wrong. I think that's a genuinely different vibe from Fox, as you would find in, say, the Daily Wire. And these young people are of that world which is willing to be like, hey, we didn't vote for this. Like, fuck this, we're not on. This is not about teams.
- [35:39]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. It's also very anti institutionalist. And Fox has obviously never really been that maybe when they first started. But like, they are the institution. Right. One of the most common mistakes made in analyzing polls is that they are always, always, always a lagging indicator and that a poll is telling you about what public opinion was two or three, four weeks earlier. I mean, just in the way that the poll was actually fielded, but also in just the way public opinion sort of filters down to folks who aren't paying as close attention to the news, but maybe still answer a poll. So, like, even today, you know, in Nate Silver's polling average of Trump's approval, He has Trump sub 40, like 39.7 for the first time. It's his average approval rating, 39.7. He said his net approval is negative 17.4. That's the approval and the disapproval. Just by comparison, Trump was negative 19.1 after January 6th, so he's 17.4 now. Biden bottomed out at negative 20.5 after the debate. So Trump is like just in the worst territory that he's ever been and that other presidents have been. And to the point about the base, and Nate goes into this as well. Trump's strong approval. People who approve strongly of Trump is down to 22.4%, which is its lowest. And the strong approval number has declined by more than his overall support. Which means that, like, maybe you're not seeing it in like, do you like Trump or not like Trump, but the people who really like Trump, the base, the people who are excited about him, are down to 22%.
- [37:18]
Jon Lovett
Yeah. It's why you see a lot of reports about CPAC being a bit more space than usual in those ballrooms, that there's not the enthusiasm. There was. Yeah. And that there was a poll. I think it was the Harvard poll that came out today that showed more Americans prefer the Biden economy than the Trump economy. A lot of people re evaluating the comparison of Biden to Trump right now.
- [37:39]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I mean, and I think that's because at least at the beginning of the Biden economy when inflation was really bad, there was like, well, there was Covid. He inherited Covid. And then like over time, you know, people had less patience for Biden not having fixed inflation. But again, with Trump, the difference is he did this. Like, it's been so rare that there's been a crisis like this, like an economic crisis, especially where you're like, not, oh, the president presided over recession. And maybe you can blame them for this or that, but like, no, no, no. This was a. He did the tariffs, he did the war. He just did them. No one made him do it. He just did it.
- [38:15]
Jon Lovett
The Trump kind of yo yo of attention on him leads his approval rating to fall sub 40 if you're lucky. And then it bounces back to mid fort and kind of hovers. I do feel like we're into the more end of the Biden term, he shouldn't be running and we're still mad about inflation or post Katrina Bush where he's kind of found a floor and there's no way off of it that people have kind of come to a conclusion about Trump. I think that's where we're at.
- [38:41]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. Meanwhile, the yahoos who are running in the midterms, the Republicans, they seem to be running some kind of experiment on just how unpopular they can make this war with voters in an election year. I gave you the following Axios headline from Monday morning that's undoubtedly coming to a message box near you. Quote, GOP weighs health care cuts to pay for Iran war. Amazing.
- [39:07]
Jon Lovett
Just Axios puts up that the message box shapes spotlight on the cloud. Dan on spring break.
- [39:14]
Jon Favreau
Dan's on spring break? Yeah, he's with his family. He probably just like, what, what should
- [39:17]
Jon Lovett
you hear that like presses three keys on a piano, a little door opens up, he takes the pole down to the message box cave.
- [39:23]
Jon Favreau
Apparently, Republicans in Congress are thinking about putting together a big new budget bill that would fund both the war in Iran and ice, paid for in part by cutting Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare. Just one idea. We're just floating the idea, but boy, is it a good one. For my question here, I'll just read you Axios why it matters bullet. New efforts to rein in health programs are sure to be controversial and open the GOP up to election year attacks that they're cutting healthcare to pay for an Unpopular war.
- [39:54]
Tommy Vietor
No shit.
- [39:55]
Jon Lovett
You think there's. Steve Scalise was asked about this and he said that they're looking for waste, fraud and abuse.
- [40:03]
Jon Favreau
They always are.
- [40:04]
Jon Lovett
So galling. It's so galling because it was a year ago when they passed the big beautiful bill and cut a trillion dollars from healthcare claiming it was waste, fraud and abuse. So are we meant to believe.
- [40:13]
Jon Favreau
Steve, they didn't get it all. They gotta go back in.
- [40:15]
Jon Lovett
Did you leave some behind?
- [40:16]
Jon Favreau
They looked like the nuclear dust in Iran.
- [40:18]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, like, just like a to go bag of waste, fraud and abuse that you were gonna come back to later. I can't think of a less popular way for them to try to find $200 billion to spend on the war in Iran. But they're getting close.
- [40:34]
Jon Favreau
Now this would be a budget reconciliation bill because they know there's no way they could get 60 votes in the Senate. It would only need 51 votes in the Senate, which Republicans do technically have. What do you think the chances are they can get to 51? And I, I should say, I guess I said that assuming that the House will pass it, but I don't even know if I assume that the House will pass it.
- [40:55]
Jon Lovett
I don't assume the House will pass it. They don't have that much wiggle room in the House. Less and less all the time. Boebert has come out pretty forcefully against any kind of a supplemental. I don't think it gets better when the pay fors are healthcare. But then again, some of these Republicans, even ones that haven't spoken yet have. One of the only places they've been willing to draw a line is they will not vote for bills that raise the deficit. So it seems like they will need to find some kind of a pay for. So I don't know how this thing gets through the House in terms of the Senate. You got to assume Collins is a no. Gotta assume. Could you imagine it's inconceivable that she'd be. I mean, look, she's. Who knows. But you assume she's a no. You assume Rand Paul is a no. So they can only lose one more. Murkowski has expressed skepticism.
- [41:36]
Jon Favreau
She's a no. There's no way she'll do that.
- [41:38]
Jon Lovett
So then that's it then.
- [41:40]
Jon Favreau
I bet like if she's a no, why would Dan Sullivan be a yes? Because he's running against Mary Poltola who
- [41:47]
Jon Lovett
just has a new poll ahead.
- [41:48]
Jon Favreau
Right. So it's like then you maybe lose Sullivan. You're right. Tillis there, by the way.
- [41:54]
Jon Lovett
If Cornyn gets through this primary. We don't know when this vote will be, but, you know, before the vote. Cornyn's politics are fucked anyway you slice it. But I would assume if you're in the Senate, what you're saying is we're not gonna touch this unless the House passes it? Because I do think it's really hard to figure out how you get this kind of a thing through.
- [42:12]
Jon Favreau
Now, maybe they pick up John Fetterman also on the side, but what a vote for John Fetterman that would be. We're gonna fully fund ice. We're gonna fully fund this war. We're. Cut your health. Now, I bet at the end, the healthcare cuts. If you had to ask them whether they'd rather stomach healthcare cuts or a bill that raises the deficit in order to fund the war, I think they would go for. I think this republic, Most Republicans in this caucus would go for the.
- [42:38]
Jon Lovett
Doesn't reconciliation. Like there are rules in reconciliation. That. So you're gonna have to find some fake way to pay for it.
- [42:44]
Jon Favreau
Fake accounting bullshit.
- [42:45]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, but look, then. But then we're talking about parliamentarians again and. Do you have Republicans in the Senate who are committed to that?
- [42:52]
Jon Favreau
I don't know.
- [42:53]
Jon Lovett
The politics of this are dog shit. And Fetterman aside, gotta assume you have not a single Democratic vote for this.
- [43:02]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I don't think you do.
- [43:04]
Jon Lovett
I hope that's the same in the House. But you don't know. It's just the. They. They couldn't make the politics of this worse.
- [43:08]
Jon Favreau
No, they couldn't.
- [43:18]
Jon Lovett
POD Save America is brought to you by Policy Genius. Spring is a season of growth and renewal. The perfect time to ensure the life you're building is protected. Keeping your loved ones secure is a top priority. And Policy Genius makes finding the right insurance policy straightforward and simple. Policy Genius is an online insurance marketplace that allows you to compare quotes from some of America's top insurers side by side for free. Their licensed team helps you get what you need fast so you can get on with your life easily. Find what you need. Coverage, amounts, prices, terms. No guesswork, just clarity. Policygenius helps you find the most affordable policy that meets your needs. They answer questions, handle paperwork, and advocate for you throughout the process. Policygenius has thousands of five star reviews on Google and trustpilot from customers who found the best policy fit for their needs. I was just talking to a friend of mine. He's the third in line in Just in a country, and obviously he's really concerned. Yeah, just really concerned. About making sure he has the best life insurance policy. And I said, check out policy genius.
- [44:14]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, forget about the job security. Yeah. It's more about the. More with the life security.
- [44:17]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, this was just somebody who say, like, hey, I want to make sure, you know, because I was seventh in line and then some. I was.
- [44:22]
Jon Favreau
There were some developments and I was
- [44:25]
Jon Lovett
like, oh man, it sounds like things are pretty crazy in that country right now. He's like, yeah, it's pretty crazy in this country right now. Policy.
- [44:33]
Jon Favreau
It's Germany and I'm talking.
- [44:34]
Tommy Vietor
Yes, of course, German.
- [44:34]
Jon Lovett
Lichtenstein. Project your family with a policy that grows with your life. With policy Genius, you can see if you can find 20 year life insurance policies starting at $276 a year for $1 million in coverage. Head to policygenius.com crooked to compare life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save. That's policygenius.com Crooked.
- [44:57]
Jon Favreau
Speaking of ICE and DHS, the agency is still closed nearly 50 days into the shutdown, despite the fact that the Senate Senate unanimously passed a bill on Friday that would fund all of dhs, including tsa, except for ICE and Border Patrol. But then House Republicans decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by rejecting the Senate's unanimous bipartisan deal, passing a bill instead that would fund all of DHS for another 60 days and then leaving town for a two week recess. Trump then sided with the House right after signing a likely illegal executive order to pay TSA workers, which I guess is now happening, but raises the question of why didn't he do that weeks ago? Trump also still hasn't given up on coercing Congress to pass the SAVE act and was asked about all of this on Air Force One.
- [45:43]
Donald Trump
ICE is vital to the well being of our country and they are able to protect us from the animals. I think the Senate is playing, playing too soft left. We're dealing with very sick individuals. The Democrats are sick. There's something wrong. They're like terrorists.
- [46:03]
Jon Favreau
Leader Thune told me that they do
- [46:05]
Jon Lovett
not have the votes to terminate the filibuster.
- [46:06]
Donald Trump
I know, but that's part of being a leader. You have to get the votes.
- [46:09]
Jon Favreau
You have confidence.
- [46:10]
Donald Trump
I mean, I like him so much. He's a high quality person, but that's what being a leader is. You have to get the votes. You have to get the votes.
- [46:20]
Jon Favreau
He sounds like an online lefty pundit. You gotta get. You just. It's leadership or righty or right wing pundit too.
- [46:28]
Jon Lovett
You go get the votes.
- [46:29]
Jon Favreau
Votes? What do you mean? That's what being a leader's about. You get the votes.
- [46:34]
Jon Lovett
Yeah. One thing just to note that if Mike Johnson had brought the Senate bill that had passed unanimously to the floor of the House, it would have passed with a huge majority of Republicans and Democrats, huge majority. It would have gotten through fine. So he's doing his own politics, he's protecting himself against a few members of his caucus. He's worrying about Trump. That's what's happening, happening here.
- [46:56]
Jon Favreau
So now the House Republicans and like Mike Lee and others in the Senate are trying to say that the Senate Republicans have, quote, buyers remorse over their compromise. That's what Steve Scalise told abc and you know, Mike Lee said the Senate should reconvene immediately. How did they fuck this up so badly? And like, do you think that flies? So, oh, we actually had buyer's remorse. We didn't know, we didn't know that we were cutting a deal with the Democrats to reopen the government.
- [47:22]
Jon Lovett
It doesn't matter what they say, how they describe it. They left DHS shut down and went on vacation. Trump is paying TSA agents cuz that's what's been getting the worst headlines. But I don't see what the argument would be for why TSA agents should be paid but not the other 50,000 or 100,000 people that are going without a salary who also work for the Coast Guard and do other all kinds of vital work that are also working without p but that Americans don't see day to day when they're traveling.
- [47:49]
Jon Favreau
It's also retroactive the EO that Trump signed for tsa, so he's now paid them for the two paychecks they missed. But no one knows what happens as we continue to go on and the shutdown drags on like there's no pool of money to pay them in the future unless the government opens up. So we're sort of going to be right back where we were. So like the lines in the airports are better today, but like what happens a couple weeks from now?
- [48:12]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, so let's assume that the filibuster continues to hold and we don't have a reason to think it won't though I could see the Republicans realizing their only way out of this is with Democratic votes. And so they need to start threatening to remove the filibuster to get some Democrats to be more amenable to some kind of compromise. That's just one path that this could go. But assume the filibuster is holding. Democrats have A pretty simple position. We talked about this with Murphy, Chris Murphy, on Friday. Senator from Connecticut. We won't pay for ICE unless there are reforms, and we've laid out those reforms. Now, originally, when this shutdown began, it was so that there would be a negotiation over what the level of reform would be, and the reforms necessary are impossible. Funding without the reforms would be unacceptable. So you'd end up with some kind of compromise. There are people on the left that say the agency and some other online warriors that are not ideologically from the left, that, like any kind of compromise, is unacceptable. Meanwhile, because ICE is funded through the big, beautiful bill, the only way of changing ICE is actually through funding it. That's just the reality. So that's what the original contours in negotiation were, but now actually, we're actually trying to extract something else, which is to force ICE to live off the money that it spent on the big, beautiful bill without our votes. Right. But Republicans don't seem to be able to pass something without us. So I don't know what happens from here.
- [49:28]
Jon Favreau
But again, I just want to understand. They have the. If they do another reconciliation bill, they have the ability, per the deal that was passed unanimously in the Senate, to fund ICE without the Democrats, because they just need 50 votes in the Senate, 51 votes in the Senate, and they need a majority in the House. So just fucking open the rest of DHS like everyone else voted to do in the Senate, Republicans and Democrats. And then the Democrats can say, like, we didn't vote to fund ICE or to give ICE more money, but if the Republicans really feel so strongly about ice, they can fund ICE through reconciliation.
- [50:02]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, I. I do think this starts to boil down to how they pay for the $200 billion supplemental, plus additional money for ICE.
- [50:10]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. And then we get back to our last conversation about why passing a new budget bill is just so hard. Yeah.
- [50:14]
Jon Lovett
I will just say, like, one hiccup in all of this is if they really can't get to some kind of a deal without Democrats, if the House won't accept anything, Democrats will accept, and the Senate won't get rid of the filibuster. Added political pressure on reconciliation. If they. How can they possibly do a supplemental for Iran without funding dhs? You're telling me we're not gonna fund the Coast Guard, but we're gonna buy bombs for a war nobody voted for?
- [50:37]
Jon Favreau
They think it's gonna. And that's probably part of the pressure, too. It's like, where, oh, you're gonna keep everything shut down, maybe they can make the funding bill about DHS and not necessarily the war, which also seems fucking crazy. I mentioned earlier that both the Senate and the House are in a two week recess. TMZ has become very politicized now. The outlet, they're hungry for the juicy details of what members of Congress are doing while are quote, according to tmz, selling their blood to keep a roof over their heads. They caught Lindsey Graham at Disney World and posted some of these photos with the headline Lindsey Graham living in Fantasyland as government shutdown drags on. TMZ also posted a story about Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia being in Vegas, though Garcia responded by pointing out that his dad lives in Vegas and they quote, speaker Mike Johnson should have never sent us all home, making it clear that the House could have simply passed the Senate's compromise. Garcia also said like call us back, we'll come back, we'll pass it anytime, you know. What do you think about the recess as an additional pain point for Republicans in the politics of all this? And do you think it's enough for Democrats to just say what Garcia did
- [51:43]
Jon Lovett
about recess Republicans because of a fight between Donald Trump, Senate Republicans and House Republicans. That's who the fight is between. Kept the Department of Homeland Security. Right. Meant to protect us from all kinds
- [51:56]
Jon Favreau
of threats which are rising in a time of war that they started.
- [52:00]
Jon Lovett
They have not been able to come to agreement amongst themselves to fund DHS. There is an agreement with Democrats. We made one, we passed 1020 in the Senate. Not a single objection. 100 to 0. Passed a bipartisan funding bill to cover DHS and allows ICE to continue to operate right. According to what Republicans wanted. Because ICE has a sitting on tens of billions of dollars on the big beautiful bill. And in the last moments Republicans abandoned that and then left the city. Just left while that is ongoing. So of course we should be exploiting it. And yeah, Robert Garcia can go visit Vegas. You know, put a couple.
- [52:38]
Jon Favreau
Republicans can do whatever they want because it's like you want. Democrats have nothing to do with this. At this point. If Democrats went back to D.C. and we're hanging out in Congress, they still can't do anything. Yeah, like they don't control Congress. They can't figure out, they can't solve the fucking Republicans problem for them.
- [52:55]
Jon Lovett
We, we do so much like so much of politics now is just like all these kinds of like symbolic battles. And like the truth is Lindsey Graham being at Disney World is like a symbol is an aesthetically bad thing. Right. Because he should be in D.C. working the problem is Congress isn't in session because Republicans don't know what to do anyway. And they all want to go do whatever they do on their recess in their districts and on their free time.
- [53:19]
Jon Favreau
Except for Lindsey Graham, I guess, is to go to Disney World with friends. I thought. I was like, oh, he's there with a nephew or a niece. He was just there with friends, going on Space Mountain, apparently holding a toy for a young girl who was going into the bathroom. I was like, very weird.
- [53:36]
Jon Lovett
I don't understand. Listen. I don't understand Lady Graham's life. I don't understand it. I don't know what brings him joy.
- [53:41]
Jon Favreau
I'll tell you what brings him joy.
- [53:42]
Jon Lovett
Space Mountain.
- [53:44]
Jon Favreau
Dropping bombs. Dropping bombs in Iran brings him joy.
- [53:47]
Jon Lovett
Yeah, yeah, I saw him at. He was also. He was at the buffet at the Contemporary at the Contemporary Hotel. I've been at that buffet. I've been at the buffet.
- [53:55]
Jon Favreau
Me, too.
- [53:55]
Jon Lovett
On the hour, the big mouse comes out, says hi to the kids there with my nephew at the time. So that's what Lindsey Graham is up to.
- [54:07]
Jon Favreau
We should just stop there.
- [54:08]
Jon Lovett
Yeah.
- [54:09]
Jon Favreau
Speaking of Homeland Security shutdowns, you see the Washington Examiner's story about how Border Patrol had to shut down several social media accounts that Greg Bravino tried to bring with him to retirement after being booted from Minneapolis and Trump's good graces? It's a funny story.
- [54:25]
Jon Lovett
I did see that. You know, back when LA used to make television shows, people would talk about what showrunners would be the hardest people to work for. And inevitably, it was like, like, men in their, like, 50s who just fucking hated their wives and their lives because all they had was their jobs. And so, like, even though the show would. Basically, they had written the script, it's already done, and they'd be like, we gotta keep working. We gotta keep going. We gotta power through. Because they didn't really want to go home. I feel like Greg Bovino maybe doesn't want to go home. Wants to keep working. Wants to keep posting.
- [54:53]
Jon Favreau
Wants to keep posting. Apparently, he'd amassed 850,000 followers on Facebook, Instagram, and X combined. And so when they tried to take those accounts back because they were the government accounts that belong to whoever the commander is out in California or wherever it was, he said, those are my followers, so I'm taking them with me.
- [55:13]
Jon Lovett
It's, hey, man, Pavino, you want your RSS feed? You gotta negotiate that.
- [55:17]
Jon Favreau
It's a present, Todd. I'm doing it.
- [55:19]
Jon Lovett
It's ridiculous. Ridiculous.
- [55:21]
Jon Favreau
It is funny, because when you Go to the Twitter account now. That used to be Greg Bevino and now it's just like, you know, whatever that central command for border patrol is. It looks like an official account and there's no picture of any person attached to it. But the tweet at the top is Governor Pritzker. Perhaps you'll get a clue and realize illegal aliens, all caps will continue killing Americans until they're removed. Like Stein in NC and Newsome with spelled O, M E in California. This is your fault. Thumbs down. Thumbs down.
- [55:52]
Jon Lovett
Just an official account with a lot of posts calling women sweetie. Yeah, no, it's. Yeah.
- [55:59]
Jon Favreau
Anyway, good luck, Mark Wayne Mullen, trying to get your arms around that department. All right, one last thing before we go. As you heard a bit earlier, Trump isn't letting the war and the shutdown get in the way of his real priority. Building the ballroom, which he explained in great detail to the reporters on Air Force One, even flipping through visual aids that he'd brought along for the occasion. Let's take a look.
- [56:19]
Donald Trump
These pictures we just made today, we have all bulletproof glass. We have drone proof roofs, ceilings. Everything's drone proof. This a view of the columns.
- [56:34]
Jon Favreau
Beautiful.
- [56:35]
Donald Trump
They are going to be made, they're going to be hand carved, top of the line. They'll be Corinthian, which is considered the best, most beautiful by far. This is a view of it from the north. And that's if you see it. It's fits in with the White House. It's almost a twin to the White House. It's something. We just wanted to pay tribute to the White House. And so that fits in beautifully. Let me just see another one. Here's another one. Excuse me.
- [57:05]
Jon Lovett
Wait.
- [57:06]
Donald Trump
I thought I'd do this now because it's easier. I'm so busy that I don't have time to do this.
- [57:10]
Jon Lovett
I'm so busy.
- [57:11]
Donald Trump
But I'm fighting wars and other things. But this, this is very important because this is gonna be with us for a long time.
- [57:21]
Jon Lovett
Very important.
- [57:22]
Jon Favreau
Times had an incredible piece this weekend titled Trump's Ballroom Design has barely been scrutinized. Architects say it shows. What'd you make of their critiques? I think we have a. We can actually. The Times did very tall yeoman's work here.
- [57:38]
Jon Lovett
Very tall. Very tall.
- [57:40]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, you see right there, it says very tall. Grand staircase doesn't lead to ballroom. There's another arrow that just says no entrance here. And then another arrow on the side that says entrance is actually here. One just says unnecessarily big.
- [57:56]
Jon Lovett
So yeah, first of all. So, man, when you're walking into a building and someone just says, don't worry, it's drone proof, it doesn't make you feel good. It doesn't make you excited about it. So there's no way to build I don't know what was 90,000 square foot ballroom without it being a hideous monstrosity. You're adding a Walmart to the White House. So it's gonna be ugly. I don't care how many Corinthian columns you throw at the thing. Trump made the point that just as we're ahead of schedule on the ballroom, we're also ahead of schedule on the war in Iran. I actually do think it's a good analogy because he knocked down the East Wing in a completely capricious and unplanned way, only to turn around and quickly, kind of based on just sort of sketches. Approve a massive change to the White House. And the second you start peering at it closely, it raises all kinds of questions, questions that nobody seems to have asked because they're all being driven by Donald Trump, who only wants to be told, yes, sir, great idea, sir. Taller than ever, sir. Corinthian column, sir.
- [59:00]
Jon Favreau
Also, the first architect went the way of the first ayatollah.
- [59:04]
Josh Turek
Yeah, yeah.
- [59:06]
Jon Favreau
They shit can. The first architect. This is the second one. And they also have, like, fake windows on the north side with bathroom stalls behind them. Apparently. This thing looks like I had. Not really, because there's a lot going on, really concentrated on how ugly and stupid this thing looks. But it is really bad that it's vandalism.
- [59:31]
Jon Lovett
These are these people. These people are vandals.
- [59:33]
Jon Favreau
It's three. The ballroom is more than three times as large as the White House residence. That's. So there's the West Wing. The White House residence is everything you see mostly when you look at pictures of the White House. It is three times the size of that. What a fucking eyesore that's gonna be.
- [59:51]
Jon Lovett
Yeah. So I remember, like, Ryan, we remember, we, like, made that graphic, that show. I couldn't believe what they were saying, that they were really making something this big. Because if you actually look at the. The footprint that they were talking about before we saw the plans, it's like, that can't be. It's so much bigger than the actual White House. But then you look at what they've actually laid out, and that is what it is. And as these drawings make clear, it's just going to be a blight in that area. It's going to change all kinds of sites. It's going to be bigger than the White House. You're going to see it because it's so big. So that's what you'll see. You won't see the White House.
- [60:20]
Jon Favreau
It's all you'll see. When we first started talking about this and people were really angry about it, I was like. And they were like, oh, every Democratic candidate who runs for president has to promise to immediately bulldoze the Trump Ballroom. And I was like, you know, at the end of the day, Trump built it. But if it's a ballroom, that's nice or whatever, I don't think any president should have put it in. I certainly don't think Trump would have. But, like, you're really gonna bulldoze it. That seems like this. Yeah, I think you fucking take this thing down them that's three times the size of the fucking resident.
- [60:51]
Jon Lovett
I think before we even get there. I do think it's clearly been something that broke through for people and the idea that we are at a time when people are spending so much for gas, when we're at war, when people feel like the Trump has fundamentally failed to care about the things he said he was going to do. The fact that they are building this monstrosity is just going to be a beacon of everything that has gone wrong with this administration, and we should should use it that way. And by the way, I don't know how you're gonna build something this big as quickly as they claim they're going to build it. He's already behind. Freddie already fired one architect to get somebody who's willing to do this. So it is going to be. It is already a debacle, and it will continue to be a debacle. And no, it's not the most important thing in the world that he's doing this. But as a symbol of everything, Trump represents this vanity project where he's kind of like vandalizing DC for his own egomaniacal purposes while the world burns, I think is like a fitting tribute.
- [61:49]
Jon Favreau
I'll tell you, if the approval ratings keep going down and, you know, they lose the midterms and all that, and it's like year seven and eight, and he's got us in whatever other fucking God knows what wars, and he's sitting at like 25, 30% approval. He's going to be spending most of his days just. He's going to be the foreman of the foreman of the project. He's just going to be wandering around this old man in the ballroom.
- [62:11]
Jon Lovett
Look at that cornerstone, hard hat on, little light, walking around like, oh, this was beautiful. This is from. This is corre. Beautiful stuff here. Every. I chose every toilet. I chose every toilet. They said, they said it couldn't be done to have this kind of a toilet here. I said we could have this kind of a toilet.
- [62:26]
Jon Favreau
Just the smallest possible coterie of AIDS and sycophants around him being like, sir, the ballroom is going great today. It's amazing.
- [62:35]
Jon Lovett
J.D. vance is in Iowa claiming that he never wanted the war with Turkey and that he actually wasn't for it.
- [62:43]
Jon Favreau
All right. Right. Speaking of the midterms, Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek stopped by the Crooked studios on Friday to talk with Tommy all about his race. You'll hear that right after the break. Pod Save America is brought to you by ActBlue. ActBlue provides Democrats up and down the ballot with the tools they need to run effective campaigns and win. Fundraise organizers build campaign websites and donate with solutions that are easy to use. ActBlue has been there through our country's biggest moments. Our partners at Vote Save America create digital fundraising pages on ActBlue platform for initiatives like the anxiety relief program. It's easy to create the donation pages and add features like goal tracking, monitors and design custom branding. And the funds are processed quickly and safely. ActBlue never sells your data or personal information. They focus on security so you can focus on what matters Most. We love ActBlue. You know, vote Save America uses it. It's critical to the Democratic Party's infrastructure.
- [63:47]
Jon Lovett
Why are Republicans trying to go after it in unfair ways? Well, because they know it helps, it's effective.
- [63:50]
Jon Favreau
And what's the magic? The magic is it's easy to use and easy to donate. That's it. That's what's great about it. So whether you're running for office or want to make an impact, ActBlue has the tools to help you make it happen, because the right time to get involved is right now. Donate, organize and raise money for candidates and causes you believe in@actblue.com Crooked
- [64:12]
Jon Lovett
my
- [64:12]
Tommy Vietor
guest today is running to be the Democratic nominee in this year's Iowa Senate race. Josh Turek, great to have you in studio.
- [64:18]
Josh Turek
Thanks for having me.
- [64:19]
Tommy Vietor
Thanks for being here. So you and Zach Walls, you're running to be the Democratic nominee. It's an open seat. We've invited Zach to come on, too. We're trying to figure that out. The primary is June 2nd. I just want to say at the top, I am very bullish on Iowa. The cycle we Have a huge opportunity in Iowa, I think, because we got Rob sand running for governor. He's a great candidate. You have a wide open Senate race. You have three targeted House races, and you can run in Iowa for just a little less money than Texas, would you say? A lot less money.
- [64:49]
Josh Turek
We're a cheap date.
- [64:49]
Tommy Vietor
You're a cheap date. And a state that I think, for a lot of structural reasons that we'll get into, is primed for a flip. So I just hope people who are listening think about Iowa, invest in Iowa, because it's not the flashiest state right now in terms of, like, you know, where the attention is in the media. But I think it's really important. Let's just start with your story, though.
- [65:10]
Josh Turek
Sure.
- [65:10]
Tommy Vietor
You represented the United States in four Paralympic Games.
- [65:14]
Jon Lovett
That's right.
- [65:14]
Tommy Vietor
You said you won two gold medals in wheelchair basketball. More amazingly, I think I heard you say you got cut six times before you made the team.
- [65:22]
Josh Turek
I did.
- [65:24]
Tommy Vietor
Can you just tell us your story and your experience, like how you got there?
- [65:26]
Josh Turek
Yeah. Well, first born with my disability, born with a condition called spina bifida due to my father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam. So I had my first surgery at one day old. I had 21 surgeries before I was 12, almost all of which took place at Shriners Hospital in Minnesota because it's the only way that my family could afford it. Yeah. And wheelchair basketball was one of the things that honestly saved me as a kid. I was bullied really, really badly and actually ended up leaving public school briefly because of how badly I was bul. And wheelchair basketball really gave me something to fight for and. And fell in love with it. Got a scholarship to play at Southwest Minnesota State university. Scored over 4,000 career points there. So just barely. Barely beat out Casual Flex there with the fourth points. Something I'm really proud of. And then I had an amazing opportunity of something I didn't even know existed, which was to play professional wheelchair basketball. Doesn't exist here in the States. And I had the amazing opportunity to play and live in places like Spain and Italy and France and Australia. By the time I was done between club and country, got to live in every continent on, or at least visit every continent, play basketball in every continent on earth besides Antarctica. And then the highlight of my career, without a doubt, was four Paralympic Games, two gold medals, and you were right. I made my very first Paralympic team straight out of college, and that was 2004. And as you know, as a basketball nation, if you don't win, it's basically like gold or failure. And we got knocked out in the quarterfinals and then they changed coach coaches. And I say there's a beauty and a beef to represent in the USA in basketball. The beauty is that you're going to have an amazing opportunity to win a gold medal. The beast is there's so many good players that you never know if you're going to have the opportunity to represent again. And they switch coaches and for six straight years, cut, cut, cut, cut. And I just kept coming back and I said, eventually you are not going to take my dream away from me. Eventually I'm going to get so good that you're going to take me. And I finally made the team again in 2011, which was the qualifier for the, for the Paralympics. And then in 2012 won a bronze medal in London. I led the team in scoring and rebounding. And that bronze medal means almost as much to me as those gold medals because it represents that hard work and struggle of trying to get back there. And then had the fort like the great fortune of being able to end my career back to back gold medals. That was amazing with my brother. And you create a real deep brotherhood.
- [67:56]
Tommy Vietor
That's incredible. I mean like, okay, I mean that's gritty as hell. Getting cut twice would probably end me, but six times and you're just stuck to it. Like you, what were you doing with the rest of your time? Were you like working and then training?
- [68:11]
Josh Turek
I was playing professionally.
- [68:12]
Tommy Vietor
Okay, so you're playing professionally, training every day there and then trying out for the team and just like just couldn't vibe with this coach.
- [68:19]
Josh Turek
It wasn't a matter of vibe. I mean I just. You had to get bigger, faster, stronger, better. I mean, you're looking at being one of the 12 best players in the entire country. Right? And, but I had that discipline and that, that work ethic of whether it was focusing on my diet or my supplementation or my sleep. I was just willing to do whatever it took to get to that next level. I would go and shoot a thousand shots every single day, rain or shine, hot or cold, go and lift weights every day. Most days I would end my day with a road push in my, in my everyday wheelchair and I would go for somewhere between seven and 14 miles. I mean, I was just willing to do the work, which honestly I think was some of the very best preparation for what modern politics has turned into. Like that discipline and hard work and ability also to just ignore the external noise and just keep your head down and do the work. It's, it's really been great preparation for this.
- [69:09]
Tommy Vietor
I was going to say most politicians, we can't get them to like, show up to vote.
- [69:12]
Jon Favreau
So I feel like you're, you're a
- [69:13]
Tommy Vietor
little ahead of the game there. You mentioned spina bifida. Your dad served in Vietnam. He had Asian orange exposure, which is linked to spina bifida, caused spina bifida, but also I think makes you eligible for VA benefits, correct?
- [69:24]
Josh Turek
That is correct.
- [69:25]
Jon Favreau
Yeah.
- [69:26]
Tommy Vietor
So I'm just curious, you know, that is a very different connection to the military in war than most Americans have. And we are at this moment, we're recording this Friday, March 27th. By the time it comes out on Tuesday, we could have troops on the ground in Iran. In yet another crazy, in my opinion, regime change, war in the Middle East. I just wondered how your experience of a, like hearing your father's story and going through the VA care process has shaped your views of these issues.
- [69:58]
Josh Turek
Yeah, and we're looking at going into another forever unnecessary conflict that I've seen far too often in my life. It's not just my direct family connection. It's in my time in wheelchair basketball as well. I've played with so many men and women that have come back missing arms, missing legs that are just never the same, same. And then my daddy spent 22 months in Vietnam exposed to, to Agent Orange. And it's reason for my disability. And these conflicts, they don't just disappear. They have generational consequences. And, and certainly I'm, I'm living proof of that generational consequence. And for example, like a state like Iowa, we, even though we don't have boots on the ground in Iran, we are already paying a high price for this conflict. We've already lost three Iowans because the base it was hit in Kuwait, those were largely National Guardsmen from, from, from Iowa. And we're looking at spending a billion dollars there. No strategy, no idea what's happening, why we're there. And you know, we've got a, a state like Iowa where we are dead last for economic growth. One of two states already in economic decline. We're closing hospitals and schools dead last from road quality. We could use that billion dollars a day in a state like Iowa as opposed to another UN Unnecessary forever conflict.
- [71:15]
Tommy Vietor
Yeah, I mean, the, there are a bunch of reports. We don't know if they'll actually do this, but that the administration was going to go to Congress to request $200 billion for the war in Iran. And I just, you know, I think in the beginning there was this Sense of, like, should Democrats vote for it? Will they be called weak? Will they be told they're not supporting the troops? I hope by now, Democrats in Washington understand that this is an enormous opportunity to show voters that we want to spend that money anywhere else.
- [71:42]
Josh Turek
Correct?
- [71:43]
Tommy Vietor
Anywhere. Schools, roads, bridges, like, anything you want in Iowa. Like, not bombs that get dropped on faraway places and people.
- [71:50]
Josh Turek
We cut a trillion dollars with the big, beautiful bill to people's health care. 110,000 Iowans lose their health care benefits. Thousands more lose their food assistance. We don't have money for the ACA subsidies to continue, which is another 117,000 Iowans looking at premiums doubling or tripling. We've closed in the last 15 years in Iowa, 250 more medical clinics than we've opened. And so we're closing nursing homes and skilled nursing facilities and rural hospitals all over the state. But we have money for an unnecessary war in Iran. It's just such a disconnect. And it's not America First.
- [72:25]
Tommy Vietor
No, it really isn't America First. And you're seeing a lot of Republicans get extremely pissed off and turn away from Trump. Changing gears a bit. So California Governor Gavin Newsom often talks about having dyslexia and, like, sort of the. The obstacles it's created in his life, how he's overcome them. I think President Trump must have caught an interview with him talking about that, probably in the context of his book tour, and now just attacks Gavin Newsom about it constantly. Here's one example. I wanted to play for you and sort of get your reaction.
- [72:53]
Donald Trump
Gavin Newscomb has admitted that he is a. That he has learning disabilities. Honestly, I'm all for people with learning disabilities, but not for my president. I don't want. I think a president should not have learning disabilities. Okay. And. And I know it's highly controversial to say such a horrible thing. The President of the United States, Gavin Newscomb, admitted that he has learning disabilities, dyslexia. Everything about him is dumb.
- [73:23]
Tommy Vietor
So he's an asshole. What message do you think those comments send to kids in this country with dyslexia or learning disabilities? Really? Any disability.
- [73:33]
Josh Turek
It's gross. It's not the first time he's done it either. I mean, unfortunately, I've dealt with bullies my whole life, and we've got a bully in the OV Oval Office. And I think my message would be to any disabled person out there, any disabled kids, is don't let what anyone says to you, including the President of the United States, prevent you from living your Best life or being able to live your dream. And you can look at someone like me. I grew up poor, I grew up disabled. 21 surgeries. I feel like I am the American dream. But I have the American dream because of something like the American with Disabilities Act. The father of the American with Disabilities Act. Zach. Senator Tom Harkin from Iowa. And don't let that define you. I think that's my message, is that you, you can ultimately be what you want to and you can do what you want here in America and do not let anyone stop you or make you feel like you are less, including the president, United States.
- [74:27]
Jon Favreau
Yeah.
- [74:28]
Josh Turek
And unfortunately, I will say that, you know, one of the reasons why I got into politics initially, I got involved in politics for two reasons. Reasons. One is because the privatization of Medicaid in Iowa. It was driving up rates, denials and delays a thousand percent since we had privatized. That was hurting the disabled population the most. Second reason why ran is because there had never been a permanently disabled member in the Iowa legislature. We're a state of 150 years, governing body of 150 members. We didn't even have a ramp in the capital. It's the people's house. It should be open to the people and the disabled population. One in five Iowans, blind, deaf, intellectually disabled, physically disabled, and yet almost no representation. And one of the reasons why I'm doing this as well, running for the US Senate is I don't think we have enough individuals up in the U.S. senate, you know, that are disabled, that come from my minority group. I think you could make the argument that out of any minority group, we are the most underrepresented at every single level of government. And then additionally, I think we need more people in D.C. from places like Council Bliss, Iowa, with real lived experience, both on the economic and on the health care side. Because when you have lived it firsthand, you'll have a different level of fight and you'll have a different level of empathy. And that's what we need. We need folks that are going to go up there and fight for the people and fight for our workers and fight for the middle class, fight for the people that can't afford, you know, to make political donations or have a lobbyist.
- [75:46]
Tommy Vietor
Yeah, it's remarkable. I remember early on, Trump at a rally made fun of a disabled reporter, right? And it was like, it was like a big deal. Yeah, he made fun of this church called. He was actually like, I used to work in the press office on the campaign for Obama. And then the White House. And he was one of the scariest reporters out there because he was so good. This guy was the heaviest hitter. And then Trump's belittling him for something. He's the worst person in the world. And it's a decade later, he's still pulling this shit. We're kind of like a nerd to it. But your point about just the total lack of empathy in government and the lack of focus on people who he doesn't understand or who, who don't have a lobbyist or representation. And the interesting thing is that Iowa actually has this really proud history of having a fighter named Tom Harkin who's like the greatest champion for a lot of communities. Could you just talk about Tom Harkin and sort of what he means to the state and what he's meant to you?
- [76:42]
Josh Turek
Yeah. For 30 years, we had the amazing opportunity to have Senator Tom Harkin as our senator from Iowa. He was championing issues like FMLA to make sure that you've got leave. And certainly he is the father of the American with Disabilities Act. And it's great because I now have a friendship with him. And they say, never meet your heroes. And he was everything and more and just an amazing human being. And this is one of the reasons why I'm also running for this, is because for 30 years in Iowa, we had this amazing opportunity to have somebody that was really fighting for the people. People fighting for the most vulnerable. The elderly, the disabled, the homeless, the poor, children, you know, the schools. A true prairie populace, the same way that I define myself, looking for a livable wage, affordable housing, affordable health care. That's what he was fighting for. And I, I think that this is a once in a generation opportunity that we have here in Iowa to win his seat back and that we can once again from Iowa having someone that's really fighting for the people. People.
- [77:49]
Tommy Vietor
Yeah, I agree. It's once a generation opportunity. Iowa is a huge ag state, and President Trump seems to be doing everything he can to piss off farmers, to make their lives harder, to destroy their industries, and literally decades of work in some cases. There's tariffs. There's Trump pitching a $20 billion bailout for Argentina, where a bunch of farmers are growing soybeans that compete with Iowa farmers, literally. Now there's this war with Iran that is preventing fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which is jacking up prices in America and starving people in Southeast Asia, potentially. What is the impact of Trump's policies been on farmers in your state? And what would you Say to a listener who thinks, you know what, you guys talk about this stuff all the time. You act like economic concerns are what move voters. But then you'll have these farmers who will get mad about some segment on Fox News and they'll vote on some culture.
- [78:44]
Donald Trump
Sure thing.
- [78:45]
Josh Turek
It's a real farm crisis. What I'm calling a, a farmageddon. Our, our farmers, we now lead the nation in farm foreclosures. In Iowa, it is a massive problem. You're looking at commodities prices being upside down, and that is largely driven because of the tariffs. That's also because of us giving $20 billion to Argentina so the Chinese can buy their soybeans. Meanwhile, our isolation, Iowa soybean farmers just left out there hanging these markets where maybe will never come back. You're absolutely right as well. You're looking at fertilizers. You're looking at now somewhere between 25 and 30% of Iowa farmers do not have fertilizer. Meanwhile, we're maybe a month or two away from planting season.
- [79:28]
Tommy Vietor
So what does that mean for them? Can they plant their crops if they don't have fertilizer? I mean, the yield will be way down.
- [79:33]
Josh Turek
Yield would be dramatically different. I mean, you're in, you're already looking at all these folks being upside down. I mean, our farmers have not made money in a decade, and now their commodities prices are actually upside down. So they are planting soybeans and they are losing money on that. And this is, and it's not just exclusive the tariffs. They've been getting beaten up because of consolidation and anti, you know, we've not done anything to break up the monopolies. We've not done anything on antitrust. And farmers are hurting. And I, I tell you everywhere that I'm going, all across Iowa, but the place that we are getting the biggest amounts of, of, of turn turnouts of Republicans is in rural communities. And the word that we hear the most is betrayal. And they say these, these folks will say, we turned out. We voted for Trump. And now look what you've done. And you go in these rural communities and they've lost their, their pharmacies are gone, they've lost their grocery stores, their healthcare clinics are closing, particularly in the rural areas. Their schools are closing. We closed 16 schools in the last three years in Iowa, almost all in the rural communities. And you go down their main streets. It looks like a vacuum's come through there. And now we're leading the nation in farm foreclosures. These are folks that are waking up and saying, Enough is enough. The state and the country needs change. And I think that they're gonna be willing to vote for someone like me. A common sense prairie populist.
- [80:51]
Tommy Vietor
The other area where I'm seeing a lot of accusations of betrayal is the Maha movement, the Make America Healthy Again movement, which, you know, I think sort of kicked off with vaccines and vaccine hesitancy, if not outright sort of anti vaccine sentiment. But there's also just like healthy foods and getting dyes out of food.
- [81:10]
Jon Favreau
Right.
- [81:11]
Tommy Vietor
There's a lot of it that's like, makes sense, common sense. But it seems like a recent Trump decision to give immunity from lawsuits to companies that make the weed killer Roundup has infuriated those voters. I know Roundup has ties to cancer, can cause cancer. And I read somewhere recently that the highest concentration of Roundup is in Iowa, which also happens to be part of the cancer belt, which is sort of the highest concentration, concentration of cancer. What is the impact of that ruling on your state? And like, you know, I was talking to Rob sand when he was in here and he said, every single town hall he has, some person in their 30s will say, I have cancer, my friend has cancer, my family has cancer. And like, it didn't used to be that way.
- [81:53]
Josh Turek
That is correct. Yeah. Iowa, we are the only state with a growing cancer rate. We have the second highest rates of cancer behind Kentucky, and we are quickly catching Kentucky. This is an issue that, that I actually think day by day is growing in terms of. There's not a single town hall that I have done where I haven't heard this issue about addressing the cancer rates and addressing the water quality issues. And it is, it's. There is a direct correlation to what we're seeing with the nitrate levels, with the pesticide levels that is leading unquestionably to the cancer rates. And certainly this is an issue that has touched my life personally. I lost my grandma to pancreatic cancer cancer. My father, because of exposure to Agent Orange. He's dealt with several bouts of cancer. And nearly the day that I launched my campaign, my sister got diagnosed with stage two breast cancer. And to. Yeah, yeah, she just underwent a double mastectomy about two weeks ago. To tell you how broken the health care system is.
- [82:48]
Donald Trump
Her.
- [82:48]
Josh Turek
She has private insurance. And her private insurance came to her and basically said, you don't have enough cancer. They said because you. Yeah, they said, because you only have stage 2 breast cancer cancer, not stage 3 or stage 4. We will not cover the PET scan to see if the cancer spread to other parts of Your body.
- [83:03]
Tommy Vietor
That's insane.
- [83:04]
Josh Turek
So we did not know if the cancer had spread to her lymph nodes or any other place until she went under, under the knife. I mean, this is what is so fundamentally wrong with the healthcare system is you're maximizing profits just for the off the backs of the most vulnerable. But absolutely, this, addressing the cancer rate and direct. Addressing the root cause, which is the lack of regulations in place on what we're seeing, seeing with the nitrate levels. And there's some common sense things that we can do that the farmers are in favor of doing. We don't have to go after the farmers. We could put a lot of incentives in place. We could put incentives so that they don't put down fertilizer in the fall and in the, in, in the winter. We can put down incentives so that they, they put down cover crops or have land barriers like many other states do. Or we can at least have an EPA that's well funded and with some enforcements mechanisms in place and, and maybe droplets allow with nitrate levels. But it's certainly something that is resonating with all Iowans, regardless of where they sit on the political spectrum.
- [83:57]
Tommy Vietor
Yeah, I think it's a, it's a, it crosses across. All families are dealing with, you know, a crisis of, of someone and Iowans
- [84:04]
Josh Turek
are tired of us just looking out for large corporations and billionaires.
- [84:07]
Tommy Vietor
Well, and giving this chemical company like, I think they had a national security exemption because some version of Roundup is used as like, like white phosphate or something, some military use. It's insane.
- [84:18]
Jon Favreau
It's awful.
- [84:19]
Tommy Vietor
Anyway, so you're in a Democratic party primary. I realize you are probably Iowa. Nice. But ultimately, like, voters are going to have to hear why you're better at the job than Zach Walls would be. What's the pitch and why do you think you're more likely to win in November?
- [84:34]
Josh Turek
I will be. Iowa. Nice. And I won't say anything disparaging about my, my, my primary opponent, but I will, I will say this first and foremost. I think this comes down to electability. I represent the reddest district that is represented by a Democrat that was won on election day. The two communities that I represent, Carter Lake, Trump won by 18 points. In my hometown of Council Bluffs, Trump won by 10 points. And I was able to win my district by nearly six points. That is 50% more over performance than any other Democrat in the state. My opponent comes from a Harris +37, has never even run against Republican. So I know that I have proven results of being able to resonate with. Resonate with the 35% of the voters that are independents and also with moderate Republicans. Even though I was so far down ballot, I actually got more raw votes than Kamala Harris did. I know that there's something specific about my story, my background, my resume, that really resonates with independence and with moderate Republicans. And I know that especially my story, the hard work of focusing on the economic populism, that's going to resonate with a lot of people in rural communities and with farmers. Second, I would say that it's meaningful and important that the people that have left the race, like J.D. scholten and Nathan Sage, the people that know us best, that were out there on the campaign trail with us, have endorsed me. I also think that it's really important that I've got far more endorsements of the people that work up at the Iowa Capitol with me and with Zach. They know us the best. I've gotten by far the most amount of endorsements there. I think that means a lot to me and raised the most money since I've been in the race. And then I also think that there is an authenticity and a credibility that I think really, really resonates. I come from a working class family, a working class community. I'm the only one in this race. It's not a millionaire. And I think that that's what Iowans are looking for. They're looking for someone that's genuine, that is not doing this for the position, for the money, for the fame, but is really doing this because we need people in D.C. not from wealth, not from privilege, but are really going up there to do like what Senator Harkin did and fight for the people of Iowa and fight for small businesses and fight for small family farms and. And. And fight for social and economic justice and fight for social safety nets that are being eroded. These social safety nets like Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security and are going to go up there and fight for people's health care and a livable wage because. And my state is really, really struggling like no other state dead last for economic growth.
- [86:58]
Tommy Vietor
Yeah. So right now the attention's on like Texas and some of the other states. Do we want to keep it that way? Do you want people to pay more attention to Iowa? Do you like that the national media is focused elsewhere and you can kind of just run your own race focused on Iowa issues?
- [87:14]
Josh Turek
You know, I don't want this to be siloed. I don't want this to be about. I want to get to the US Senate, and to heck with everybody else. And so I like the attention being on Iowa. And my message to your viewers would be, be the very best place to invest this year is in Iowa. Iowa. I understand that people on the coast will say Iowa is a red state, but we are not. We are a common sense state that has masqueraded more red than what we are 30 years. We voted for Senator Harkin. We're a state that has voted twice for Obama, three times for Trump. We have more Obama, Trump counties than any other state in the union. But in much more recent history, Trump's last midterm, we won three of the four congressional races. We almost won all four. Three points away.
- [87:52]
Jon Favreau
Yeah.
- [87:52]
Josh Turek
And in the last midterm that we had, we were 1.5% away from having three of our six statewide officials being Democrats. That means your average Iowa voter went and voted for three Dems, three Rs. We also are a state that has bottomed out. And sometimes I think you have to bottom out as a state like Kansas did before. People are willing to go a different direction. But we are dead last for economic growth. We're 48th for personal income growth. We're one of two states already in an economic decline line. We're basically dead last for every single health care metric. Closing healthcare facilities all over the state. We lead the nation in cancer rates, and now we lead the nation in foreign foreclosures. We have bottomed out, and then we have no power of incumbency. This is the first time since 1968, open governor's race and open Senate race and two open congressional races. Iowa is going to be the center of the political universe. This is a state that we can legitimately see flipping three congressional races races. We can win this open governor's race and we can win this open Senate race. I mean, we had an independent poll that came out that showed myself and Ashley Henson tied. So that's why I want the national attention in that regard of. This isn't just about me. This is about. We in Iowa have this once in a generation opportunity where if we go and we're organized and we're coordinated, we not only have the opportunity to change our cities or change our communities, you know, change our counter counties, we can fundamentally change the state. And the amazing opportunity we've got in Iowa is if we're able to flip these three congressional races, we flip Congress. But then the amazing opportunity, which people would have said was blasphemous to talk about a year ago, which is, you need four states to. To flip the senate. Maybe North Carolina, maybe Maine. That looks really good. Ohio looks very good with Sherrod Brown. But seat number 51 in the U. S. Senate majority control, I believe it's Iowa. And we can win this, and we can win it with a candidate like me.
- [89:41]
Tommy Vietor
I think. I think we should be investing a lot of money and time in Iowa. If voters want to, if they like what they're hearing and they want to help you out, where do they go?
- [89:48]
Josh Turek
Yeah, they go to my website. Turek. T U R E k the number four Iowa. Turekforiowa.com we are not taking any corporate PAC money. We're relying off of individual donors. And so if people all around the country hear this, please support. We really can. We can win this race and we can not only change the state of Iowa, we can change this country. And we can once again have in the US Senate someone from Iowa that is fighting for the people like we did for so long with my political hero, Senator Tom Harkin.
- [90:15]
Tommy Vietor
We can do it, folks. Well, Josh, great to meet you. Thank you for coming.
- [90:18]
Josh Turek
Yeah, thank you for having me.
- [90:19]
Tommy Vietor
Best of luck of the campaign.
- [90:25]
Jon Favreau
That's our show for today. Thanks to Josh Turek for coming on. Dan and I will be back with a new show on Friday. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricket.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrienne Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Kanter is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Hayley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Kirill Pelaviev, David Toles, and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.