Trump Loses the Gerrymander War

Summary

Pod Save America — “Trump Loses the Gerrymander War”

Date: April 24, 2026
Hosts: Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer, Tommy Vietor
Guest: Mark Leibovich (The Atlantic)

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Overview

In this episode, the hosts break down a tumultuous week in American politics, covering ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the implications of the redistricting wars for Democrats and Republicans, and the growing crises within the Trump administration. They provide detailed analysis of the Democrats' win in Virginia’s referendum to redraw congressional maps and explore how Republican gerrymandering efforts have ultimately backfired. The show also features a deep-dive interview with The Atlantic's Mark Leibovich about the California governor’s race, and looks ahead to the drama surrounding the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump set to attend for the first time as president.

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Key Discussion Points & Political Analysis

1. The Middle East “Forever War” Stalemate

Timestamps: 06:55–17:15

• Ongoing War: Trump claimed victory over Iran 43 days ago, but the U.S. is mired in a Middle East conflict, with a faltering ceasefire and escalating tanker seizures in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Pentagon Report: Classified briefings indicate it could take six months after the war ends to fully reopen the Strait, leaving global energy markets in turmoil.
• Trump’s Posturing: Trump continues to extend ceasefire deadlines without concrete results, demonstrating little actual desire to resume open conflict:
  • Quote: “He’s given, I think it is now five deadlines with threats, and at every single one of them, he’s extended the deadline without getting a single thing he wanted.” — Dan Pfeiffer (09:38)
  • Quote: “Anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it.” — Dan Pfeiffer (13:11)
• Democratic Response: Senate Democrats repeatedly attempt war powers resolutions, but lack Republican support to limit Trump’s authority.
• Political Calculus: The war’s unpopularity, high economic costs, and Trump’s weak bargaining position are causing further political headaches for the administration.

2. Trump Administration Turmoil

Timestamps: 13:19–17:13; 46:13–53:17

• Personnel Chaos: Key dismissals include the Secretary of the Navy and other high-ranking officials amid bureaucratic infighting and ideological purges targeting “WOKE” initiatives.
  • Quote: “The only wars that Pete Hegseth can win are bureaucratic ones.” — Dan Pfeiffer (13:42)
• Scandal Watch: Stories about FBI Director Kash Patel’s alleged misconduct (“J. Edgar Boozer” allegations) and internal DOJ/AG disputes escalate.
  • Quote: “Just an average, everyday American who loves hockey.” — Jon Favreau, mocking Patel’s self-defense (48:21)
• National Security Risks: Discussion of a DHS official’s “sugar daddy” relationships as blackmail vulnerability—hosts joke, but underscore the seriousness of security risks.
  • Quote: “Kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government.” — Jon Favreau (51:47)

3. Democrats’ Big Win in Virginia and Gerrymander Wars

Timestamps: 20:03–40:55

• Virginia Referendum Success: Democrats pass a referendum to redraw the state’s congressional maps, likely netting four more seats and essentially evening the partisan split.
• Republican Fallout: Trump and the GOP decry the result as “rigged”; Republicans express regret for starting the gerrymandering fight.
  • Quote: “Republicans started this ridiculous war. Democrats could have crawled into the fetal position… Gavin Newsom stepped up, Hakeem Jeffries stepped up… Virginia would not have happened without Hakeem Jeffries for sure.” — Dan Pfeiffer (22:56)
  • Quote (on Republican complaints): “Wah, wah, wah.” — Jon Favreau (22:03)
• Consistency and Reform: Hosts highlight Democratic support for anti-gerrymandering measures nationwide, urging Republicans to “be consistent for once on the reforms they support.”
• Voter Trends: High turnout among Asian American and Black voters was pivotal. Independents skewed against the measure, reflecting process fatigue.
• Outcomes: The episode concludes that Democrats “won redistricting” overall and that GOP “buyer’s remorse” is rampant.
  • Quote: “If you try to do this, we will do it too. And you’re not going to get that much, and… the juice won’t be worth the squeeze.” — Dan Pfeiffer (31:10)

4. 2026 Midterm Political Landscape

Timestamps: 33:09–40:55

• Polls: Trump approval ratings hit historic lows (33% in AP, 32% in ARG), and Democrats open up to a 6-point advantage in swing House districts.
• Senate Outlook: Even the Senate—a difficult climb for Democrats—now appears winnable with strong over-performance in special elections.
• Republican Turnout: GOP “can’t nationalize” special elections, but expect more competitiveness as November approaches.
  • Quote: “The political environment looks about as good as we ever possibly could have hoped for Democrats right now.” — Dan Pfeiffer (33:58)

5. Democratic Fundraising Shortfall

Timestamps: 42:03–45:43

• Money Worries: The DNC is briefly in the red; GOP super PACs and dark money groups massively outraise Democrats.
  • Quote (on DNC spin): “Let’s try running it back with no money.” — Dan Pfeiffer (43:48)
• Strategic Donations: Campaigns’ dollars go further than super PACs because of ad rate laws, so emphasis should be on donating directly to candidates.

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Interview: Mark Leibovich on the California Governor’s Race and D.C. Culture

Timestamps: 56:51–83:17

1. The “Stupid Circus” of California’s Gubernatorial Race

• Field Breakdown: Lack of star power following Kamala Harris’s and Alex Padilla’s absence leads to a splintered Democratic field and the real possibility of two Republicans advancing to the November runoff.
  • Quote: “There’s not like a giant in the race… just the math of seven Democrats splitting their votes seven ways.” — Mark Leibovich (60:50)
• Influence of Money: Tom Steyer flooding the race with $140 million and taking extreme positions, but faces backlash over perceived ‘buying’ of the nomination.
• Recent Surge: Becerra’s surprise rise in polls and funding after public skepticism and a weak debate performance.
• National Attention Economy: Difficulty for non-famous or non-nationalized figures to break through in mega-state races.

2. A Reluctant Kingmaker — Gavin Newsom’s Role

• Governor’s Reluctance: Newsom hesitant to endorse, reportedly underwhelmed by the field, and waiting for someone to break out (“process of elimination” pick).
  • Quote: “I think he is as underwhelmed as a lot of other Democrats are about this field… I think he was really looking for a reason to have someone like Becerra sort of, like, make his decision for him.” — Mark Leibovich (68:13)

3. The White House Correspondents’ Dinner — Trump Returns

• Back in the Ballroom: Trump to attend for first time as president since 2011.
• A Loaded Affair: Anticipation of how the event will handle the notorious adversary of the press, and the potential for Trump-driven disruption or spectacle.
  • Quote: “It would not surprise me at all if he was just intentionally antagonistic, prepared something not the least bit clever, not the least bit funny, not the least bit gracious.” — Mark Leibovich (71:04)
• Press Complicity: Debate over the awkward tradition of toasting the president—especially one hostile to press freedoms.
  • Quote: “There are other ways to raise money for journalists’ scholarships that don’t involve a toast to a president who disbanded the White House press pool.” — Dan Pfeiffer (75:57)
• Washington’s Changing Culture: Discussion of whether D.C.’s old bipartisan social scene and “one party circuit” have truly faded in the MAGA era.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Trump and Foreign Policy:

  • “Anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it.” — Dan Pfeiffer (13:11)

• On Republican Gerrymandering Complaints:

  • “Wah, wah, wah.” — Jon Favreau (22:03)

• On Democratic Consistency:

  • “I just think that maybe Republicans could be consistent for once on the reforms they support and when they support them.” — Jon Favreau (24:53)

• On Staff Scandals:

  • “Kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government.” — Jon Favreau (51:47)

• On Washington’s Social Scene:

  • “It was actually possible to have bipartisan friendships. It’s hard…MAGA…it’s a whole different dimension and they don’t seem to want to have much to do with mainstream journalists…” — Mark Leibovich (80:56)

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Additional Resources

• CrookedCon.com: Updates for the upcoming conference in D.C.
• MessageBoxPro.com: Dan Pfeiffer’s new political consulting product.

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Summary Table of Timestamps & Topics

| Timestamp | Topic | Speaker Highlight | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------------| | 06:55–17:13 | Middle East War, U.S. stalemate | Jon, Dan | | 20:03–40:55 | Virginia redistricting & midterm implications | All hosts | | 42:03–45:43 | Dem fundraising crisis | Dan | | 46:13–53:17 | Scandals in Trump admin; security risks | Jon, Dan, Tommy | | 56:51–83:17 | Mark Leibovich interview (CA race, D.C. life) | Mark Leibovich |

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Tone & Language

The episode maintains Pod Save America’s signature informal, blunt, and sarcastic tone, with in-jokes, candid swearing, and pointed critiques of both parties—though particular scorn is reserved for GOP hypocrisy and Trump administration dysfunction.

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For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode captures urgent themes: the international fallout of impulsive Trump policies, the potentially epochal shift in redistricting power, and a Democratic Party at an inflection point as it navigates a fractured Republican Party, internal challenges, and an unpredictable media-political circus. Featuring analysis that is sharp, accessible, and darkly comic, the episode gives a comprehensive briefing for political junkies and casual followers alike.

Transcript

[Jon Favreau]

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[Tommy Vietor]

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Favreau]

Welcome to pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

[Jon Favreau]

Look at us, we're here in dc.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Back where it all started.

[Jon Favreau]

Back where it all started. Beautiful city. Beautiful city. They haven't started work on the arch yet?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No. Did you check out the ballroom?

[Jon Favreau]

I was just. When we were landing, I was excited to see that the monument was still standing because I was. I didn't know.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's good. Yeah. The Lincoln Memorial painted MAGA red.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Right. So everything looks normal so far. All right. On today's show, we're going to talk about the latest developments in our new forever war and why it could take six more months to open the Strait of Hormuz even after the war ends. We'll also cover Democrats big win in Virginia in the state of the redistricting wars, which Republicans are starting to regret. We'll check in on our boy Kash Patel, who can't quite shake the J. Edgar boozer allegations.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Just a top notch, top 10 all time pot saving American title, I would say.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know who came up with it. They're all on the line, so someone knows, but we're not with them.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Lovett's saying it was him.

[Jon Favreau]

It definitely was not Lovett.

[Mark Leibovich]

That's all I care about.

[Jon Favreau]

And why. The biggest national security threat that we face, Maybe sugar daddies. Then our friend Mark Leibovich of the Atlantic joins us here in studio to talk about the California governor's race in this town's super bowl, the White House Correspondents dinner this weekend, why we're here. We couldn't stay away. And with Trump in attendance for the first time as president and the first time since 2011. What happened in 2011, we're not gonna get into that again. If you're listening to this show and you don't know the story of 2011, then you have not paid attention. Crooked Con is coming back, Dan. Right here in this city. Washington, D.C. washington, D.C. november 5th through 7th. It's gonna be right after the midterms.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Is it being held in the ballroom?

[Jon Favreau]

Maybe. Maybe. Yeah, we're scoping it out. If it's done by then, we're gonna have more panels, more speakers, more opportunities to connect with people who care about politics. And plus, there's gonna be live tapings of Love it or Leave It, Pods of America and strict scrutiny. So head to crookedcon.com, sign up for updates, including ticket release dates, lineup announcements and a lot more. Also, huge news for campaigns Candidates and anyone who wants to be super smart about politics, take it away. Yes, we. Dan.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Thank you, John. So for years we've heard from candidates, staffers, organizers that they are forced to turn to Pod Save America for political strategy and messaging guidance because they can't afford a pollster, a consultant. They're not getting support from the national party. Obviously it's very flattering that they listen to us for advice. But also it's a pretty shameful indictment of how the whole system works. The fact that the people who need the most help get the least help. The fact that the best spoke consultants, the best pollsters, only work for the candidates who have the most money, who tend to be the candidates who need the least help. So to try to fill that gap, I'm launching a brand new product called Messagebox Pro. This is a consulting subscription service for people who work at all levels of politics. Whether you're running for office, you're working for a campaign, you work for a politician, you're just organizing to defeat mag and protect democracy in your community. Subscribers get weekly strategy memos from me, polling guidance, data driven insights and advice on how to get your message out in this crazy media environment. For more information go to messageboxpro.com you can sign up there. The first 250 people who sign up get lock in a special founding member price forever. Www.messageboxpro.com this is a project I'm very excited about.

[Jon Favreau]

Is there a co host discount?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No, just wondering.

[Jon Favreau]

I'm kind of interested.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Maybe I can comp you.

[Mark Leibovich]

Okay.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

All co hosts will be comped.

[Mark Leibovich]

Okay, good, good.

[Jon Favreau]

Well that's exciting. Everyone check it out. You get to have weekly strategy memos from Dan. Wow. I mean that's pretty great. It's a pretty exciting product. Dan, I'm really excited you're doing this. We've been talking about this for a while, so I'm glad you got it off the ground. Messageboxpro.com youm can also go to the

[Dan Pfeiffer]

notorious Yesweet crooked.com YeswedID that's another option,

[Jon Favreau]

but that's also to donate to your future races.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No, no, no, no.

[Mark Leibovich]

Okay.

[Jon Favreau]

All right, let's get to the news and what seems to be a stalemate in a war that's been going on for seven weeks and counting. Quick reminder, it's now been 43 days since Trump first declared victory in Iran. Now we are on week seven and counting. So we're recording this mid afternoon east coast time on Thursday, a little earlier than usual and Trump is about to do an event in the Oval Office where he may take questions. Our producers are monitoring the situation. Reid, you're just gonna give us a wave, big wave, in case there's throw

[Dan Pfeiffer]

his sweet green bowl at us.

[Jon Favreau]

It's gonna be big news, though. Big news. All right. But for now, Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday, didn't put a new deadline on it, and it's unclear if we still have a ceasefire because then Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the US has seized a couple tankers, including on Thursday, a tanker of Iranian oil. And. And there's still no word on whether there will be another round of negotiations. J.D. vance, just sitting at the airport waiting to get the call so he can jump on a plane. Trump is still posting through it. This is all just today claiming that, quote, we have total control of the Strait, which we obviously don't, as evidenced in part by his next post that he's ordering the Navy to, quote, shoot and kill any boat laying mines there, which he claims is already happening, but wants it to continue at a, quote, tripled up level. That's technical speak 3x. Yeah, tripled up level. He also shared two posts from warmonger Mark Thiessen. Yeah, my predecessor at the White House that suggested he should kill the Iranians who don't want to deal. So he said there's a couple of factions. There's the want to deal faction and the don't want to deal faction. And Thiessen said he should kill all the Iranians who don't want to deal with. But also that Trump doesn't need a deal. So there's a few problems there. Meanwhile, this is all after the Pentagon reportedly told Congress in a classified briefing. This is from the Washington Post, that it could take six months to clear the Strait from the date the war ends. So if the war ends tomorrow, we're looking at six months until the Strait is open again and global energy supplies go back to normal and the price of gas comes down and oil and all the other. And the supply shock and all the other problems that have befallen the global economy because of this. So looks like the administration is trying to spin the ceasefire extension as a temporary act of mercy. They're saying on background three to five days to, quote, allow the Iranians to get their shit together. This is what they told Axios. And Trump keeps threatening that huge strikes will resume. How eager do you think he actually is to restart this war?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, he's given, I think it is now five deadlines with threats a Lot of deadlines, and at every single one of them, he's extended the deadline without getting a single thing he wanted. So I'm getting the sense that he does not want to restart this war. He really wants the strait to be open and the war to be over and it to be seen as an unalloyed American victory. But all of this is an impossible

[Jon Favreau]

one tough circle to square.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, it is an impossible circle to square. So we are stuck in this place and every day that we're still in the stalemate, because really, stalemate is not a term you want to use with a war in the Middle East.

[Jon Favreau]

No, been there before.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Every day that the stalemate continues makes it worse for the US and the global economy. The oil shock gets worse, the shortage gets worse. I think if you read what people, experts in the oil industry say is that the markets, the political conversation is dramatically underestimating how bad this is and what the medium term consequences are like. Europe is headed towards a potential jet fuel shortage.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Uganza canceled like 20,000 short flights already. It's really bad.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it's very, very bad. With very, very real implications for people's daily lives. Not just gas prices, but every single part of their life. The strength of the economy, overall inflation, the cost of food. And as we point out, from the day you end the war, you have six months till you can get to something hopefully resembling normalcy and begin to unwind all of this. And we have no idea when that day one will be.

[Jon Favreau]

And per usual, Trump is making his problems worse because he has made it clear to the Iranians and the world that he's horny for a deal, which the Iranians know, which is why they're gonna make it harder for him to get a good deal that he can feel confident about, which he also needs to avoid seeming weak, because he can't seem weak. So it's just. And you can tell that, like, the Iranians are sort of showing a little more confidence in the way they're posting and talking about this. And also they're like, it's clear, like the IRGC is in charge and the hardliners. And there's a long New York Times piece today about the new ayatollah. And he is apparently still very injured and very ill. But it's like the way they described how Iran's being governed right now is that it's a board of directors and the new ayatollah is the chairman of the board, but all the generals and all the IRGC people have almost just as much of a say or certainly more of a say than they did when his father was in charge. So that's probably not good for world peace or getting a deal. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's just there. There are such different incentive structures here. All the IRGC cares about is staying in power.

[Jon Favreau]

And they have. They can. They can wait it out because they are a repressive, awful regime. They don't care how much pain they inflict on their own people. And it's not like they have elections coming up. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

There is no one sitting at IRGC headquarters worried about the generic ballot right now.

[Mark Leibovich]

Right.

[Jon Favreau]

And they know that Donald Trump just wants out, both because he's worried about the politics and because he has no attention Spanish.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And it's just not clear what he could do to change the calculus here, because all he can do is bomb more things.

[Jon Favreau]

What we all have to hope is that they end up doing a deal that's probably better for the Iranians than we would have hoped. And Trump pretends that it's some great deal and tries to take credit for it, but at least it ends the war. Like that, to me, is now the best possible outcome. Because there is no outcome where we get a great deal.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No, I mean, the fundamental challenges here is anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

That's about where we are right now. You see that Pete Hegseth fired the Secretary of the Navy, which is an interesting thing to do here in the middle of the biggest naval blockade operation in decades. Another heroic background quote to Axios. Quote, he didn't understand he wasn't the boss. His job is to follow orders given, not follow the orders he thinks should be given.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

The only wars that Pete Hegseth can win are bureaucratic ones.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes. Doesn't seem great that they're losing the Secretary of the Navy. It seems like this guy went, too, because he was having trouble with Hegseth and fighting with Hegseth. And part of it was based on Hegseth wants to eliminate the WOKE army, the DEI agenda. And so he was trying to make sure. He looked at every application for a possible job and scrubbed social media to make sure there were no signs of WOKE or. Or DEI anywhere in the resume or in the social media. So it doesn't seem like that's a good thing since there's a lot of people now, I feel like, at upper levels of the Pentagon who have been let go again in the middle of a war.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. We keep getting rid of people who know what they're doing, replacing them with people who don't.

[Jon Favreau]

Senate Democrats brought up a war powers vote on Wednesday. Republicans voted it down now for the fifth time this year. What else can or should Democrats be doing? It seems like they're just gonna keep bringing these votes up. And it seems like each time they are getting like more Republicans who are at least considering voting for the War Powers Resolution. And the time limit's up in terms of, even if you don't have, even if you don't think that the War Powers Resolution does anything, the President can only be at war for a certain number of days, and that's the time limit's coming up there. And so now they're trying to figure out a way to get around that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I'm always torn on the War Powers Resolution thing as a tactic here, because one thing we've known for some of the polling we've seen is that people are very, very against this war. They don't understand why we're in it. They hate the costs of it. They think it's stupid. The least effective argument is the process one. But morally, constitutionally, from a governance perspective, the process one is very important. That is a case that should be made. And even if we were to pass it, Trump, we're not going to pass with a veto proof majority. So it sort of is what it is. And so we have to think about using these votes to put as many Republicans on the record as for Trump's illegal war as possible.

[Jon Favreau]

I have noticed that all the talk about the supplemental war funding has kind of died down. Remember, it was going to be $200 billion and then someone said maybe it's closer to 100 billion that the White House is going to ask for. But I don't see that legislation getting fast tracked anytime soon, do you?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, I just don't know what the immediate urgency is. What will push this is it's very, very, when the Pentagon wants something, the Pentagon is very, very good at ensuring that everyone knows they want it. And so if they actually, like Trump and Russ Vote, have made a mockery of all sort of budgeting laws. So they could be robbing from all sorts of places to avoid this. But at some point they're going to need that money and, and they're going to have to go to Congress for it. And then that becomes the most important, most politically salient vote people will take on this war.

[Jon Favreau]

I would bet their calculation is he's trying to get a deal, he's trying to get us out of this. Let's just try to wait to ask for the funding until the war is over, and then we can say it has nothing to do with the war, the war is over. This is just to refill our munitions, which are running low. And now there's reporting from Alex Ward in the Wall Street Journal that munitions are so low that if we ever had to go to war with, say, China that we wouldn't be able to have enough munitions. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, the risk to that strategy is the later you wait, the closer you put it to the election. Right. We're in late April now. Congress is going to take like the last thing. The worst possible scenario for Republicans is they have to deal with this in September right before the election.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. As gas prices are like over $5 a gallon at that.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay, you, that's a life stage.

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[Mark Leibovich]

it took, took a little longer than

[Jon Favreau]

expected but that's younger than me. That's nice. And lifestyle factors such as plant based diet. So you get support that's actually right for you. Adding nutrifold to your daily routine is easy. Order online, no prescription needed. With automated deliveries and free shipping to keep you on track. Let your hair become one less thing taking up space in your head. And see thicker, stronger, faster growing hair with less shedding in just three to six months with Nutrafol. For a limited time, Nutrafol is offering our listeners $10 off your first month subscription and free shipping when you visit nutrafol.com and enter promo code CROOKED. That's nutrafol.com spelled N U T R A F O L.com, promo code CROOKED. All right, let's talk about the great news of the week. Democrats won the Virginia referendum to redraw the state's congressional maps, which will likely NET Dems another four seats in the Commonwealth and hold 10 of the 11 congressional seats there. It is now going to be a 101 split in Virginia, Democrats and Republicans Trump said the election was rigged, obviously called on the courts to fix this travesty of justice. That was his quote. And of course, indeed, a Republican circuit judge in Virginia blocked the results on Wednesday, which was expected. This judge had blocked the referendum earlier and Attorney General J. Jones vowed to appeal. Now Virginia's Supreme Court will decide. Republicans and right wing media join Trump in bitching about the results. And Democrats aren't feeling too guilty. Here's Jesse Watters, Jessica Tarlov and aoc.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You guys have been gerrymandering for quite some time.

[Jon Favreau]

You're very good at it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Trump tried his hand at it, did

[Jon Favreau]

it in Texas, got some good results. And then you guys have just been running the table. Can you stop? Can you slow down? No. All gas, no brakes.

[Tommy Vietor]

What do you make of Republicans saying that Virginia is.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You guys getting? Democrats getting. Wow.

[Jon Favreau]

First of all, what do you think about the Republican complaining? If you could expand on. Wah, wah, wah. I mean, because I saw it from like a lot of, a lot of Republican strategists who I think know better. Many of them live in Virginia, as many Republican strategists and Democratic strategists do in Northern Virginia, but they are very upset. And when you say, well, Texas started it, they're like, well, no, Democrats started it first before Texas and other cycles. And in New York, they did it in 2020 and all this fucking bullshit.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay, so what is it the Republicans love to say? Fuck around and find out, because that's exactly what happened here. But let's just.

[Jon Favreau]

That's what Hakeem Jeffrey said.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Did he say that?

[Jon Favreau]

And he actually said fuck.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Did he? Yeah, that's very authentic. Good for him.

[Jon Favreau]

Very authentic. Here's honestly, good for it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

We should.

[Jon Favreau]

Hakeem Jeffries. Hakeem Jeffries gets a lot of credit.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He absolutely. Republicans started this ridiculous war. Democrats could have crawled into the fetal position. Gavin Newsom stepped up. Hakeem Jeffries stepped up. Hakeem Jeffries.

[Jon Favreau]

And he did work. He, like went to these states, went to these legislatures, pushed people like, it was a lot of behind the scenes

[Dan Pfeiffer]

work, but he did work. Virginia would not have happened without Hakeem Jeffries for sure. So he gets a ton of credit here. But let's just be clear about this. In 2021, there was a vote to ban gerrymandering. Every single Democrat voted for it. Every single Republican voted against it. One party supports a national ban on gerrymandering. This is the only way to do. This is a national ban. One party supports it's the Democrats one party opposes. It's the Republicans. What they don't like here is they started a dumb fight and they lost it.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. I just think we should be consistent in the positions we hold on reform that sort of reforms corruption and rigged system and gives people more of a voice and like, yeah, we're for ending gerrymandering everywhere. And if the Republicans don't like the bill from 2021, that would end partisan gerrymandering for whatever reason, because some of them have some problems with the way it's. Then tell us what you want to do. Give us a bill that would, and then maybe we can negotiate on it. But I feel the same thing with money in politics and Citizens United and. Oh, Democrats are spending money, too. No, we want to overturn Citizens United. We want to get rid of money in politics. Do you also. Then let's do it. I think that there should be term limits and maybe age limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices. Great, let's do it all. I think we should get rid of the filibuster. Everyone's like, oh, well, now they're Republicans. Would you be pissed if the filibuster wasn't there? Yeah, I would be annoyed that they maybe could pass a few more things, but I believe the filibuster is bad, and so I believe that it is bad no matter what. I just think that maybe Republicans could be consistent for once on the reforms they support and when they support them.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. I mean, there's two things there. One, there's consistent. The other one is whether Democrats should be required to unilaterally disarm when things remain legal if we're trying to change it.

[Jon Favreau]

And the answer is, of course not. Yes, that is an absurd fucking position.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I do think in a different era, and maybe even the first Trump era, Democrats would not have responded as aggressively to this, because we do believe gerrymandering is wrong. We would have thought that. Not everyone. I don't think you and I would have thought that, but I think many in the party would have thought that it is dirty pool. Two wrongs don't make a right. We should not do it. And the fact that we did turns that Democrats have learned a lesson, finally, of the Trump era, which is you. If you are going to take on fascism, you have to be willing to fight fire with fire. You have to use. Everything Democrats are doing is legal. It is a maximum use of allowable political power.

[Jon Favreau]

The way to fix unfair rules is to fix the rules, not just sit there and let your ass get beat. So last year, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia beat her opponent by 15 points. The referendum passed by three. It's a 12 point swing. Why do you think it was so close?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

A couple reasons here. One, so the most obvious comparison point is the California measure that passed in November that passed by about 30 points. This is three points. California is more Democratic than Virginia, but it's not 10 times more democratic than Virginia.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. And if it passed by 30 points, isn't it like a, isn't it like a D plus 20 state usually?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. And Kamala Harris won Virginia by 5.8 points. But some reasons why it was closer. One, this was a very Republican turnout was quite good. It was actually as big 2021 levels when we lost. Yep. When Glenn Yenkin was elected, the Republicans did mount a very good campaign here. They actually used Barack Obama in their ads. Both sides used Obama in their ads. The no side used Obama footage of Obama talking about what gerrymandering was bad in their ads. And then the yes side used more recent footage from Obama saying pass this

[Jon Favreau]

amendment smarter than no side.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And they spent real money, less money than the yes side. The other issue here that made it closer was independence. So independence in the last Washington Post poll, that was a couple weeks before the election, had independence at plus 10 on the no side, which is a huge swing from Spanberg, who won them by more than 20 points in 2025. And that kind of makes sense because if you're an independent who is upset with Trump, maybe you voted for Youngkin in 2021, maybe you voted for Spanberg in 2025. Robert 24. And you're mad at Trump. You see this, a process oriented anti pro gerrymandering amendment is something that you can still vote against.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And I don't know how the vote broke down in any of the individual districts, but I also think it is very understandable if you're an independent or if you're Republican and you're deciding whether to come out and vote or not, or vote like if you're in a district that's going to get gerrymandered. And so you no longer really have a, have a say and you're a member of Congress or you're not going to ever get a Republican, I could see why you vote against it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

This is why gerrymandering in general is bad and they shouldn't have sent us down this path.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And interesting, the one group that blew the doors off and it's probably why Democrats won was Asian American voters.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And black Americans, too. I saw both Asian and the Asian vote, and the black vote were quite high. Yeah. Because again, especially black voters, like, know what it is to be gerrymandered.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Let's talk about what the redistricting war Trump started with Texas hath wrought. When you add up all the states now that have redrawn their maps, Democrats are, as of this moment, plus one in the overall count. The only state left is Florida, where the legislature has a special session scheduled for next week. But it's actually unclear if DeSantis changes. Changing the maps will net Republicans any additional seats. And some in the party are already feeling what Axios described as, quote, buyer's remorse.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You bet.

[Jon Favreau]

It's a bummer, huh? When asked if the redistricting effort was worth it, the chair of the nrcc, whose job it is to keep Republicans House majority, told Axios, quote, it's not for me to say, because really, it wasn't my decision. And California independent Kevin Kiely, who was a Republican and now caucuses with the Republicans, still told Axios, quote, I wish none of this had happened.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He lost a seat.

[Jon Favreau]

Exactly. Did we win redistricting?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. I mean, yeah. Yes, we won redistricting. You know, when Florida is done, it could come out that we are a seat or two behind. Florida is interesting because DeSantis could redraw the maps. One just worth noting that partisan gerrymandering in Florida is illegal according to the Constitution. To the Constitution. So he's gonna need to.

[Jon Favreau]

So that seems like a hurdle.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It is a hurdle. I would say the legal reasoning of the Florida Supreme Court is malleable.

[Jon Favreau]

Eileen cannons on that thing.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. And so there's some thought that they're gonna find a way to twist the illegal pretzel enough to get it done. But even if you draw it right. So this is the problem. DeSantis is under pressure to. To do what Newsom did because DeSantis wants to run for president in 2028. Potentially, this is his chance to show himself to be an important Republican player. But if he drew. Experts who look at this think that anything more than adding two Republican seats puts them at real risk of what you call a dummy bander, which is where you draw the districts in a way that in a bad year, you lose a bunch of seats. So even I think even if DeSantis were to do it, he's going to get two seats at max, so we end up minus one for the whole thing. And what I think in the sense that we won I'm not sure anyone's going to do this again in mid year. Right. Obviously we're going to have to do this again after the 2030 census in every state. But I think Democrats sent a message to Republicans that if you try to do this, we will do it too. And you're not going to get that much and it's not going to be worth the juice. Won't be worth the squeeze.

[Jon Favreau]

A longtime Florida Republican consultant talking to Politico, he ran the numbers and that person ran the numbers and concluded the new map could net Republicans zero seats for the reasons you talked about. So because right now they hold a 20 to 8 edge because basically there's nowhere left to cram Democrats without exposing safe Republicans to incumbents. So it's going to be really hard even if the Supreme Court doesn't, even if the Supreme Court allows it. The other thing that we've been waiting for is this Supreme Court case that could upend the map and the Voting Rights act and basically say that all majority minority districts can be redrawn, which would cost Democrats a bunch of seat. But I do think as of now, it's like too late. It's too late for it to matter in 2026. Partly, apparently, because two Southern states, which is where it would heavily affect, it was affect southern states more than anyone. Two southern states have already held primaries and candidate filing deadlines have passed in every state but Florida. So even if the Supreme Court says it matters for this election, like they

[Dan Pfeiffer]

just can't, it would be mass chaos if they were to try to make it in place.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes. And it's just like for the states that already held primaries, you can't do anything. I guess you can. I guess the legislature could go try to change a filing deadline by passing legislation.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They'd have to pass new laws to basically do emergency elections. To do it. You have new filing deadlines. People have to get signatures for those petitions. Then you'd have to have a primary. Then you have to have a. Then the general election. November seems. And you have to draw the districts at some point in that too.

[Jon Favreau]

So seems fine for 2026. It is a problem and it seems like the decision will be bad, but a problem for another day.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Enjoy that majority while we have it

[Jon Favreau]

for the next two years. The redistricting fiasco only adds to the Republicans midterm woes. Trump and the party continue to hit new lows in polling. Both the AP and ARG had Trump's approval at 33% and 32% respectively. So that's fun. As Sarah Longwell says, that's the Bush line right there. Cook Political Report released a new poll on Thursday finding that just in swing districts that Trump won in 2024 by an average of 2 points, Democrats now hold a 6 point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. So that's pretty big. And in a new Fox poll voters gave Democrats the edge over Republicans on inflation and the for the first time since 2010. I think that's a six point spread in the generic ballot as well. How much hopium are you huffing these days?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I'm not really a hopium huffer per se.

[Jon Favreau]

I know, that's why I'm asking.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Look, I think that the political environment looks about as good as we ever possibly could have hoped for Democrats right now. And the poll that everyone should really be paying attention to is the Cook Political Report poll of the 36 districts that will decide the House. All of the toss up lean Republican, lean Democratic districts.

[Jon Favreau]

And that was the one that was the, that I, that's 6.36.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And in that one Democrats have big double digit advantages on lowering prices and on the economy, which is something that has changed. Trump's unpopular Republican base is divided like we have the opportunity before us as we get we'll get to this conversation. There are some hurdles to maximizing that opportunity but this has the potential to be a 1994, 2006, 2018 style election for Democrats where is a massive rebuke to the president, incumbent president and his party.

[Jon Favreau]

And we've been talking about the House but headline of Nate Cohn's newsletter earlier this week was why a Democratic Senate, once unthinkable, is now a real possibility. What did you make of Nate's reasoning? Because he's not someone who just no,

[Dan Pfeiffer]

he is not a hopium huffer, flies

[Jon Favreau]

off the handle, just starts making predictions.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

We've made this case, I've made this case on polar coaster multiple times and we've talked about a little bit here. But once again as we've said, it is a tall order to get the Senate because you have to win two of four states that Trump won by double digits. In addition to winning, holding all of our ones, we have Winnie Maine in North Carolina. But the advantages we have are we have good candidates, very, very good candidates in three of those four. The four state is Iowa which hasn't had its primary yet. So you have Mary Paltola in Alaska, top notch candidate Sherrod Brown in Ohio, top notch candidate James Hellerico in Texas, top notch candidate and there's some view

[Jon Favreau]

and Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And Roy Cooper in the. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and then Maine.

[Mark Leibovich]

Right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's not one of the four may. It's not a race. Anyone's rattling this podcast. So you know, it's an under the radar race. And the Democrats are overperforming in special elections by a margin that would deliver. It puts all those states in play. Right. We got to win those. We need plus 10, plus 11 environment to win those states. And we're seeing that's the sort of environment we're in right now. And then you can add some additional points to that because you have candidates who are going to perform better than a generic Democrat.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, the paragraph in Nate's piece that really stuck out to me was I was talking about Sherrod and Mary Paltola. It says in Ohio, Mr. Brown lost by 3.6 points in 2024. Ms. Peltola lost by around 2 points. In Alaska today, the Democrats are faring about 8 points better on the generic congressional ballot than they did in the 2024 combined US congressional popular vote. Or put another way, Mr. Brown and Ms. Peltola probably would have won reelection in 2024 if those contests had been held in this political environment. So that's pre Echelon did a set of polls in the Senate states. Echelon really good pollster run by Republicans Patrick Raffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson. They have Ossoff up 51:44 in Georgia. In Maine they have Platner up on Collins 51 45. They have Mills up by a narrower 48 46.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's that main Senate race.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, that's who's running that. I'm just holding my tongue on that. In Iowa they have Zach Walls a two point lead and Josh Turek a one point lead. So they do have a tiny lead inside the margin area in Iowa. And then the only tough one there is in Ohio, they have Sherrod down 51:45. And there's been a few Ohio polls that have been kind of troubling lately, but we'll see. So speaking of Patrick Raffini, who literally wrote the book on the so called realignment that delivered Trump to the White House in 24, he tweeted a few days before the Virginia election that if the referendum passed by around a five point margin, of course it passed by three. It meant Republicans quote, have some fight in them and can quote, hold down Dem seat gains in the House and keep the Senate. What did you make of his Case it's not crazy.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So the original point here is Democrats tout every time we overperform. And so he's gonna go around and tout the one time we underperform. So, you know, sporting. I guess what I think is, and I want to stipulate that a process oriented ballot measure is very different than a candidate race where the candidate. It's hard to hold the no on redistricting measure accountable for why you're angry at Trump.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And just to your point about ballot measures, let us not forget all the abortion ballot measures in deep red states that made us excited that maybe we were gonna win those states. Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Or minimum wage ballot.

[Jon Favreau]

And they did not. We did.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

25 point congressional over performance in Georgia from three weeks ago or whatever it was is a better indicator than this. Also, it is certainly not evidence of an improving political environment. Trump's actually doing worse than he was before. The generic ballot is getting bigger, not smaller. And so I think it's a bit of a vacuum. What I think is true is that what Republicans effectively did here is they nationalized that election. And when you nationalize an election, that gives them the chance to turn out more of their voters. Because we are winning both through massive Democratic turnout, persuasion and diminished Republican turnout, they're not going to drive down our turnout. They're probably not going to do a lot of persuasion. But the one thing they can do is drive their turnout up. And that is the difference between us winning a bunch of Trump plus 12 seats and us not winning Trump plus 12 seats.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And the other, the other point I found compelling about Patrick's argument is he basically said, in all these special elections that we've had so far, Republicans really haven't been able to sort of up the stakes and make voters feel like there's a lot at stake in this election. And in Virginia, they were able to do that because they made it seem like you could lose your voice and your district forever. And so once you get closer to the actual midterms and everything's nationalized, as you said, and the stakes are higher and, and they're spending, you know, all the money they have, which we're about to talk about, then you could get a closer environment than you've had in some of these special elections, which I do think is possible.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Republicans are going to get their shit together in some way, shape or form that is going to happen. It always does. The. I don't. They're not going to get Trump level turnout, they're not going to get the turnout they want, but they're going to get better turnout than they've been getting in some of these special elections, and that is going to hold. That is not enough to save the House. It may be enough to save the Senate, but it's not enough to save the House. But it could hold down the market. The difference between democrats picking up 15 seats and 25 seats.

[Tommy Vietor]

This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all in one website platform designed to elevate your online presence and drive your success. Squarespace provides all the tools you need to remote and get paid for your services in one platform. Whether you offer consultations, events or other experiences, Squarespace can help you grow your business. Squarespace offers a complete library of professionally designed and award winning website templates with options for every use and category. No matter where you start. Your website is flexible to what you need with intuitive drag and drop editing, beautiful styling options, unrivaled visual design effects on brand, AI content, and more ways to list what you offer. No experience required. Every dream Needs a Domain Squarespace domains make it easy to find the best name for your business at one fair, all inclusive price. No hidden fees or add ons required. Every Squarespace domain comes with advanced privacy and security tools included to ensure your domain remains online and protected. Plus, Squarespace provides everything you need to bring more of your dream to life. Whether that means building a website or adding a professional email service, don't wait to claim your name. Invest in your dream domain today. Head to squarespace.com for a free trial and when you're ready to Launch, go to squarespace.com crooked to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain, that's squarespace.com crooked this episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.

[Jon Favreau]

Whether you're dealing with anxiety, depression, conflict in relationships, financial struggles or simply need an impartial third party to help you deal with daily stress, BetterHelp is there to connect you with the Support you need. BetterHelp therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US. BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences and their 12 plus years of experience and industry leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time for their tailored wrecks. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 6 million people globally and it works with an average of 4.9 out of 5 for a live session based on over 1.7 million client reviews. You need therapy. You might not think you do, but you do. You do. It always helps to talk to someone. Even if you feel like you're doing great, you go talk to someone, you realize, oh, now I feel even better. We're therapy boys. We can vouch for that right here. When life feels overwhelming, therapy can help. Sign up and get 10% [e-mail] PSA that's better. H E L P.com PSA the New York Times reported this week that Republican Party political committees and allied groups currently have a massive $600 million financial advantage over the Democrats and their political committees and allied groups. The DNC's total cash is actually negative 4.5 million, which seems less than ideal. What do you make of the overall disparity there?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I would say one of the funniest things I've read in a long time is there was a political reporter was passing along Natasha Correcky, I think was passing along some of the spin from Democrats and one of the spin from some of the Democrats about this was, well, we had all this money in 2024 and we lost anyway, so let's

[Jon Favreau]

try running it back with no money. In 2024 we had a candidate and we lost.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Let's try no candidate. That's good thinking. Here's what I'd say. It is bad when the DNC has negative money, okay?

[Jon Favreau]

That is bad going on.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It is not as consequential as I think people on the Internet think. The DNC is not intimately involved in funding House races or Senate races. That is the DCCC and the dscc. They have less money than their Republican counterparts, but that's a much narrower gap. And then where Republicans are truly crushing us is in super PAC and nonprofit money and dark money. And that's not even counting all of the hundreds of million dollars in the AI and crypto super PACs, which are mostly going to help Republicans. But where Democrats are crushing us, our candidates are raising a lot more money than their candidates. And here's why that matters. Because every dollar in political fundraising is not equal by law. Television stations have to sell TV ads to campaigns run by candidates, the actual candidates at what is called the lowest unit rate. They have to do that. What the going rate is is what they charge a candidate. They gouge the living shit out of super PACs. So super PACs in the last 60 days before an election are paying 2, 3, 4 times the amount of the campaign. So let's take North Carolina, right, where Cooper's raised a gazillion dollars. Let's say the Republicans plus Michael Watley's Republican nominee have $80 million. That's equivalent to 20 million to, you know, 20 or 20 or $30 million of recoupers money. And so, like, it is bad we should have more money. It is bad that we are being outraged like this. But give money to campaigns because those dollars go further, which you can do

[Jon Favreau]

by going to votesavemerica.com and we'll tell you the best place to send your money. Don't want to be wasting any of it. Seems like Trump is responding to the grim political outlook with his tried and true method of firing people. So he's reportedly considering forcing out more members of his cabinet. Laurie Chavez Duramer, the Labor secretary, resigned this week in scandal following Kristi Noemi and Pam Bondi. There's some speculation that Howard, I almost just said Nutlik.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You can say that.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. It's just, it's natural.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Now, was he gonna sue you?

[Jon Favreau]

No. I guess maybe that maybe Nutlik could be next. Or possibly Kash Patel, who's again not having the easiest time rebutting Tulsi Gabbard, too.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Could be.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, I saw Tulsi Gabbard. Yeah. Cash is having trouble rebutting the Atlantic story that did lead to his new nickname, J. Edgar Pusser. Here's Patel and his boss, acting AG Todd Blanch, responding to questions about the Atlantic story at a DOJ press conference on Tuesday. Let's play the clip. Can you say definitively that you have

[Dan Pfeiffer]

not been intoxicated or absent during your tenure as FBI director?

[Tommy Vietor]

I can say unequivocally that I never listen to the fake news mafia. I'm like an everyday American who loves his country, loves the sport of hockey, and champions my friends when they raise a gold medal and invite me in to celebrate. I've never been intoxicated on the job.

[Jon Favreau]

Obviously you've read the Atlantic article that's now a subject of a defamation lawsuit brought.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I absolutely did not read that article. You're being extraordinarily rude, and I know maybe that's part of your profession, but please just stop. Your lawsuit contends that you were not able to log into the system. What did you think after you were unable to log into the system?

[Tommy Vietor]

Let's have a survey. How many of you people believe that's true? It was never said. It never happened. I was never locked out of My systems. Anybody who says it says the opposite.

[Jon Favreau]

Your lawsuit says the opposite is the

[Mark Leibovich]

key line from the reporter at the end.

[Jon Favreau]

Meanwhile, the Times reported on Tuesday that the FBI began investigating one of the New York Times reporters, Elizabeth Williamson, after she broke the story last month that Patel has had as assigned FBI SWAT teams to protect his girlfriend and drive her to her concerts because she is a country music sensation and even a hair appointment. Patel is now denying that the FBI investigated, even though the bureau basically confirmed to the Times that they had looked into Williamson's, quote, methods. How hard is Cash Patel crushing it right now? What'd you think of that press conference?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Oh, man. Oh, Uncomfortable in every situation.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Just trying too hard at all times. Just an average, everyday American who loves hockey.

[Jon Favreau]

The lawsuit is helpful if you read the lawsuit, because it does detail every allegation that is bad in the Atlantic piece. And one helpful page just puts them all down, one through four.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

What was the Atlantic article so long you couldn't get through it?

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, no, it basically gave you the summary of it right in the lawsuit and did essentially admit that the story about not being able to log into his email or his system was true. Do you think Trump gets rid of Cash?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I don't know. Even more than Bondi and Kristi Noem, I think that this would be seen as an admission of failure on Trump's part, at least. The other. Yeah, it just. I don't.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, I mean, first of all, Trump's, you know, had never had a drink. He doesn't drink. And so I think he doesn't like the idea that someone is, like, running around drunk in the FBI and not because he, like, I think it. This is all through the prism of, like, it makes Trump look bad. Right. This is not about. He doesn't care about, like, the safety and security of the country. And also what Trump wants is revenge on his enemies. And I mean, look, that. That press conference was about indictments they brought against the Southern Poverty Law center for. It seems like crazy charges, but did seem crazy. Yeah, but so I think Trump's annoyed with that. So we'll see. I don't know. I would have said. I said this on Tuesday's show, but I would have said, no, he'll keep him. If it was before Bondi and Gnome, but now that he's got those two out, I feel like he's got a taste of, like, oh, I fire someone, it's a story for a day, and then we move on.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So would you. I know we don't predict on this show. But if you were on some sort of prediction market platform, would you put any of your hard earned coin on the idea that Cash Patel will not be in this role on Thanksgiving?

[Jon Favreau]

Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You think he'll be gone by Thanksgiving?

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I think they'll. Yeah. Because he definitely post midterms. Not definitely, but I feel your guess would be like if you told me like by 4th of July, I'd be like, yeah. So you think he wants to bring,

[Dan Pfeiffer]

you think post midterms, but definitely before the end of the year?

[Jon Favreau]

I think so. I put money on that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know how much money, but I put money on it. Speaking of money and staff behaving badly, it is our solemn duty to discuss the case of Julia Varvaro, the 29 year old who is serving as deputy assistant Secretary for counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security. Don't worry about it. That's not a big job. According to a former romantic partner who filed a formal complaint against Varvaro, she is actively on dating sites where, quote, sugar daddies agree to fund the lifestyles of younger women, including one called Seeking, where she offered, quote, mutually beneficial relationships. According to the Daily Mail, the whistleblower slash ex said he'd spend $40,000 not betting that on cash, leaving on gifts and travel for Varara over the course of their three month relationship. And he thinks she's under financial stress. That constitutes a national security risk. Seems like the government agreed because she was placed on administrative leave after the story came out. As you know, Dan, our producers are constantly urging us not to kink shame on the show, even though I continue to stress that kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

What if threatening national security is your kink?

[Jon Favreau]

Well, then what do you do there? I don't know.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Ask the producers.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. No, if people want to go on wherever this is just to get some sugar daddies, that's fine. If you want to be your sugar daddy, that's fine.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

If you want to be a sugar daddy, that's fine. Jon Favro, April 23, 2026 just, you

[Jon Favreau]

know, just when you have a government job, especially one that involves counter terrorism and homeland security, I don't know, I have to. You don't want to put yourself in a position of being blackmailed.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I have to admit to you that when we were slacking about this yesterday, I was on my plane. I did not know about this story. It was all news to Me. Then I went to my computer and I was about to type in Sugar Daddy politics, and I thought better of it.

[Jon Favreau]

There's a lot of pictures of this guy of the sugar daddy with her that the Daily Mail has published. Everyone else. And there's one right as we started recording, of course, of course. Our old friend Travis Helwig, who used to work here, sent it to me. And it's just the sugar daddy standing next to her with a little sign that says, she's horny again, fine. But if you're Deputy Secretary for Counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security, maybe less.

[Tommy Vietor]

Fine.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Counterpoint on the scale of corruption in this administration. This is fucking quaint.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, it's not corruption necessarily. It's just. It's a risk.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's also a corruption risk.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, I guess. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

There's a blackmail risk. Association.

[Jon Favreau]

The reason that a normal FBI cares about all of this, the reason they all did interviews with all of us before our security clearance, stuff like that, is the idea is that if you have lied to the FBI or you have secrets that you haven't revealed, or some foreign actor or someone can blackmail you and say, if you don't do this for me, I will reveal publicly what I know about you, that you go on this website or whatever, then you are more likely to do the thing that the foreign government or actor wants you to do. That's the whole reason anyway. That's that. That's that, Dan. Sugar daddies for dessert. Sugar daddies for dessert. That's what we got for today. All right. When we come back, we will talk to the Atlantic's Mark Leibovich about the shit show in California.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Jon Favreau]

And I don't go anywhere without my Zebiotics or else I will pay for it the next day and be mad at myself.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Jon Favreau]

Dear Friday, Toyota says let's put good times in gear with the tundra Tacoma and 4Runner. Want some cool available features? We've got power tailgates to power game days and a trailer backup guide that's

[Mark Leibovich]

the champ of the ramp.

[Jon Favreau]

Heck, we might even cancel Monday. Toyota trucks find [e-mail] Toyota let's go places. Mark Leibovich, welcome to the pod.

[Mark Leibovich]

Great to be back with you guys.

[Jon Favreau]

Good to see you here in dc.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Thanks for letting us back into the town. You rule Washington, DC.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Mayor. Mayor of DC they call them.

[Mark Leibovich]

It's me. Yep. You know all these parties I'm blacklisted from? I'm not even invited anymore.

[Jon Favreau]

Really?

[Mark Leibovich]

Oh man.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

You were blacklisted from ours until we just.

[Mark Leibovich]

I know. It was just.

[Jon Favreau]

That was Unintentional, unfortunately. It'll be more.

[Mark Leibovich]

Fine. Sorry. Just don't make. Well, I won't say it.

[Jon Favreau]

I won't say it. So you visited our fair state to report on what you and Mike Murphy lovingly referred to as the stupid circus, AKA the California Governor's race.

[Mark Leibovich]

Well, I guess, I guess I kind of.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, you repeat a few times, which I love.

[Mark Leibovich]

Mechanism.

[Jon Favreau]

I think that's a good mechanism.

[Mark Leibovich]

Take the quote and get from it. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

You start the piece at a Little League game with Eric Swalwell, which you note, quote, felt consistent with the wholesome image that the campaign had been straining to project of late, for reasons that would become clear soon enough. Made me laugh out loud. Did you get any bad vibes from your conversation with him?

[Mark Leibovich]

I got bad vibes from everything I had heard about him going into the conversation. This was one of those things where I'd spent the whole week just sort of touching as many bases as I could. And Swalwell basically lives here. I don't know where he lives now, but he lives in D.C. you know, back in the quaint days when he was getting heat for like not really living, spending that much time in California and that was like a scandal for him. He was, you know, he's here a lot. His kids are here, his wife is here. Oh, here in D.C. here in D.C. yeah. Yeah, he lives, I mean, he played at a place on Capitol Hill, so. Or at least he used to. So don't know where he is now, but he is. Look, I'd heard everything. It was, it was starting to perk up on social media. But that was kind of commensurate with whatever momentum he had because there was, there was definitely some movement to him and Trump did him a huge favor. Well, I guess the Patel did him a huge favor by releasing these sort of like completely ridiculous 10 year old file that found no wrongdoing. So, you know, a great, a great way to get elected statewide in California is to be a big target of Donald Trump. And, you know, Adam Schiff proved that and knew some. I mean, well, he certainly got Prop 50 probably over the finish line, so I thought so. But I, I was, I was thinking, you know, how far does this have to go before, I mean, do I ask, do I bring this up at the end or do I wait till another for another conversation? But you know, there as you got,

[Jon Favreau]

there was no other conversation.

[Mark Leibovich]

There wasn't. I mean, literally three days later, the implosion happened. But, I mean, you guys know there's a big gap between stuff that everyone talks about and reportable, actionable stuff. And to the eternal credit to the, to the San Francisco Chronicle first, later, cnn, I mean, they nailed it down and looks like it was kind of tip of the iceberg. So, I mean, I definitely caught, I knew the reputation. I mean, he was, he's a perfectly, he can present. I mean, he's a thoughtful, ish guy. I mean, he's kind of Adam Schiff light in some ways, except without with all the personal baggage. But. So, yeah, and I knew something was coming. And they were clearly very self conscious about it. It was like, and he was going over the top about his kids, Little League thing. I mean, he didn't, you know, understandably wanted to keep his kids out of it, but it was a whole dad thing. He brought his wife along. She seemed very nice. So it was a little over the

[Jon Favreau]

top in all your reporting, like for people who aren't from California, haven't been paying attention to the race. Like, why is this the field?

[Mark Leibovich]

It's a great question. I mean, you know, the short answer is Kamala Harris, Alex Padilla, who apparently everyone wanted to run. I'm not sure I buy that. I think there's a little bit of revisionist history there. But they're big names. They would have, if not cleared the field, definitely would have, you know, probably guaranteed 25%. Certainly Kamala would have maybe a little more.

[Jon Favreau]

And George Clooney lives in France, as you know.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah.

[Mark Leibovich]

And you know, Newsom's term limited. I mean, there are, I mean, there are quite a few, I think, quite talented Congress, members of Congress from the delegation, I think, you know, a couple of mayors. But again, there's not, I mean, there's not like a giant in the race. And there, I don't know if Kamala would have been that person, but there wasn't. So when you have just the math of seven Democrats splitting their votes seven ways, two Republicans who are complete unknowns and, you know, I wouldn't think on elect, I wouldn't think that electable in California under regular circumstances. They're just splitting their vote two ways. You know, this is the math issue. So the Republicans, for anyone who doesn't know, there's a runoff system. Jungle primary. Top two finishers in the June 2 primary, regardless of party, go on to the November election. And in a lot of the polls, the top two finishers have been Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County. Just basically two Republicans that no one's heard of, but they could get there in November and there could be no Democrat on the ballot.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

California is interesting because it's such a big state that it's almost impossible for anyone to be known in it. And we've just had this situation where our last three governors were. Gavin Newsom, who was quite famous when he eventually won because of the gay marriage, Jerry Brown, who had been governor before and was a national figure, had run for president, and Arnold Schwarzenegger before that. And if you are a member of Congress, you cannot. It's so expensive to run for governor there. It's almost impossible for anyone to raise. Unless you're a member of Congress with a national profile, which Smallwell sort of had, it's impossible to raise the money to run there. And you just possible get name ID because we have a million media markets and no one can become famous. And so I think Padilla, who was a statewide elected official before he became senator, even if he had run, he still would have fit into this mix because he's no more well known than Javier Becerra, who had been Attorney General and HHS secretary.

[Jon Favreau]

That just made me think, not to get us off on a tangent, but don't you think that's the future or where we are now of national politics at the presidential level, too? It just seems like if you go back, the nominees of each party, who the president ended up being for the last 10, 15 years, just the way the attention economy works now, if you are not famous, it is very hard to become famous out of nowhere in national politics on a national level.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You have to be someone who is a master at attention. Right. Like Pete Buttigieg is the example. Someone who became famous. He's the one example. So every other candidate in the 2020 Democratic primary finish in order of name ID at the outset, other than Pete Buttigieg.

[Mark Leibovich]

No. But there's a wild card here which is relevant to this race, which is Tom Steyer, who basically became known, you know, got actually under debate stages in 2020. It was actually, you know, finished seventh in New Hampshire in, I think sixth in Iowa or something like that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But he finished third in South Carolina, I think.

[Mark Leibovich]

Did he really?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He danced with juvenile on stage at the end.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah. That's what people remember about that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah. I mean, actually, no one really remembers that Joe Biden was rescued in South Carolina. It's only. It was only that. No. So Tom Steyer, I mean, he Basically, he spent $140 million so far in this race. I mean, it's really quite something. I mean, his strategy is spend as much money as possible, put as many ads out there as possible and take the most liberal position possible and maybe that gets you home. I mean, Swalwell wasn't, was known, but that's because of MSNBC and cnn. I mean it was. And hearings. Right. So. But that's all national, nationalized political news and very Trump centric.

[Jon Favreau]

Becerra, he's one person like surprisingly absent in your piece. Is that, did they, did they not give you an interview?

[Mark Leibovich]

You know, so that was just, I mean, when I wrote it a week ago, he was nowhere and I kind of had to make, I mean I had, you know, 2,500 words. I took about 4,000. And still there's a lot, there's a lot to explain. There are a lot of characters and Becerra seemed kind of back in the pack and a lot of it's just logistical. I mean, I was out there to cover this debate. The debate was canceled. I had 72 hours. I basically could only stick around Southern California. He was in Northern California. So I mean there's sometimes not, not a lot of rhyme or reason. He also might just not have wanted to talk to me as Steyer and Porter didn't, did he? Which was a huge mistake on there.

[Tommy Vietor]

Not much.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean, I, he, I mean, I

[Jon Favreau]

really, I'm trying to figure out. He's had the surge is real with Becerra. Like he's, it's now been a number of polls where he's either in tied for first or right after that and the money has followed. And I'm just like, what happened?

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, well, I mean, the numbers thinned. I mean, Betty Yee, who was at 1%, she dropped out too. So I mean, that's a number. But I mean, Swallow dropped and there was a sense for at least a couple days that Steyer was just going to be okay. He's going to inherit the wind here. And I think there was an immediate backlash and a lot of people I talked to were just instantly just offended by that. Just part of it is just sort of like the basic American ideal that it has hostility towards buying an election, which is basically what this is. And also the guy doesn't particularly present all that well. And I think Becerra, if he ever got a first look, got a first and a half look or something like that, and he's quite credentialed. I mean, he, he was in the Biden administration, he was the AG in California. You know, he's out there. But there was a debate last night. I don't Know how well he did.

[Jon Favreau]

What'd you guys think of the debate?

[Mark Leibovich]

From what you saw, Dan, what'd you think?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I saw highlights of the debate and then I watched parts of it on 3xp this morning in my one hour to do this. If Becerra had delivered a great performance, he could have essentially locked up a spot here, I think. But he did not. And so I think you leave the debate still wondering who the candidate is who could actually solidify in this field because people were really hoping it was going to be Becerra. And California races are largely funded by interest groups, the California teachers, the environmental folks, trial lawyers.

[Mark Leibovich]

And they would rally around him.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, they could have. They're looking for someone to rally around because Swallow had a lot of these labor endorsements. One of them has gone to stire since then. But he could have seized the momentum and I'm not sure he did. Also not sure how many people watched any of it. So it's hard to say.

[Jon Favreau]

I thought Matt Mahan was aggressive in a way that he needs to get attention.

[Mark Leibovich]

Right.

[Jon Favreau]

And so I thought he did well there. Steyer took a lot of incoming, which I was surprised, I guess, because he's still kind of the front runner. And so it was a lot of people attacking Steyr. Becerra didn't seem like. I thought Becerra and Katie Porter were both kind of quiet in the debate. Like they didn't have a lot of big moments.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, Porter was a little better than I thought. Think. I mean, I don't know. I don't think anyone. I don't know if people are going to give her a second look. She kind of stalled. I mean, she, like Swalwell, had a bit of a national profile, was very effective, kind of anti Trump Democrat during the first term and didn't get a lot of traction. I mean, there were. There were some pretty nasty viral videos about her that she caused. I mean, sort of jumping down the throat of staff. But we're just yelling at a staff member, yelling at a reporter, a couple other things. So some reputational issues Newsom told you

[Jon Favreau]

he wouldn't endorse unless it's a break class moment. What's your read from talking to him? Both his relative absence in this race and his seemingly inevitable 2028 campaign or his preference?

[Mark Leibovich]

His preference.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

His preference, I would say.

[Mark Leibovich]

Okay, I have some, I think some informed wisdom on that. I mean, I think he is as underwhelmed as a lot of other people are, a lot of other Democrats are about this field. I think he hasn't been that shy about it, privately, even.

[Jon Favreau]

He told you. He said, I think the field is interesting.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

This field has a great personality.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. You know what? I'm not. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So there's that. I mean, apparently. I mean, he, I think, was looking to have some kind of Becerra breakout. I don't think he has issues. I think he's fine with Becerra. He doesn't like Mahan. I think he has reservations about Porter. I think he has reservations about Steyer, and for a lot of reasons, but I think that he was really looking for a reason to have someone like Becerra sort of, like, make his decision for him. So we'll see. I don't know, though. I mean, I think he would love

[Jon Favreau]

a real process of elimination pick.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, it's not. I mean, unfortunately, you know, Newsom. I mean, he's not always the most decisive guy in the world, but I do think that his indecision here is quite. Or his. His hesitation here is sincere, and I think it's reflective of a larger ambivalence among Democrats.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He did endorse the lieutenant governor's race this week.

[Mark Leibovich]

He did. He did.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So he can do is allowed. Yes.

[Mark Leibovich]

And he has experience as a lieutenant governor. Yes.

[Jon Favreau]

So it's your favorite weekend of the year.

[Mark Leibovich]

It is.

[Jon Favreau]

Your Super Bowl. The White House correspondent by Mardi Gras, the whole thing. Yeah. I guess the only thing different about this year is Trump's gonna be there at the dinner for the first time since 2011. First time as president.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah. That'll be interesting.

[Jon Favreau]

What do you think, though? Has anything changed? Has the dinner regained any of its splendor from years ago? When are you getting to the Grinder party?

[Mark Leibovich]

I haven't been invited to that. So here's the thing. Okay. Full disclosure. Known you guys a long time. I'm 60 years old now. Okay. I'm.

[Jon Favreau]

I'm spring chicken in Congress.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Look great.

[Mark Leibovich]

Thanks. I feel great.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

20. You're 20 years younger than the median Democrat. That's true.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah. I'm too young for the Senate.

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean, I will do a Saturday night. First of all, now that I'm not at the New York Times anymore, I can go to the dinner. The Atlantic has, I think, two tables.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Oh, yeah. I was going to ask about the Atlantic.

[Mark Leibovich]

I went last year. I think I went the year before. They asked if I wanted to go, and I wasn't sure I was allowed to say no, but I tried, and they accepted my answer. Although I will say, I don't know if this is mystique or luster or intrigue or whatever, but from a pure voyeuristic point of view, I mean, I think Trump almost certainly has something planned. I mean, I think like the greatest mass arrestor. No, but some like a really red wedding.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Have you ever seen the Red Wedding?

[Mark Leibovich]

No. I mean, it would not surprise, surprise me at all if he was just intentionally antagonistic, prepared something not the least bit clever, not the least bit funny, not the least bit gracious. I mean, to think about all the opportunities he's had to play that game. I mean, starting with the Al Smith dinner and when he was with Hillary in 2016. And I don't think he would have accepted this. Well, I mean, I think part of him just thinks, all right, what a spectacle. I'll be in the middle of it. You know, who knows how many opportunities I'll have to do this. It'll be different. But I'd be shocked if he didn't have something antagonistic planned. And I mean, the media is not organized. I don't know what they're going to do, but it's. But it'll be kind of a reality show, which is what he does. And I mean, I don't think there's like a great August and, you know, beyond reproach tradition of the White House correspondence dinner that could be lost and that he could soil like he soiled other institutions around Washington. But I do think that, I mean, it could be, there could be some friction there that will be worth watching, and I'm kind of glad enough to be there for it.

[Jon Favreau]

Don't you think it's going to be a problem when his plan runs headlong into those First Amendment pins that the reporters are wearing?

[Mark Leibovich]

That'll do it, man. So when I was. Can I tell the story?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Should I tell now? You have to.

[Mark Leibovich]

So I was. When I went to College in the 80s, I graduated college in the 80s, University of Michigan, they wanted to give an honorary degree to Nelson Mandela. And there was some regent or some rule, the Michigan regents or something. He couldn't be. If you can't be there in person to receive your honorary degree, you can't get your honorary degree. Nelson Mandel had an excuse. We all know what that was at the time. And there was an alternative. You know, those of us who were protesting that wore like a big button and I wore, you can see, on my graduation gown or my thing, it was a Nelson Mandela button. So that was my protest there.

[Tommy Vietor]

Okay.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You could tell that story, I say

[Jon Favreau]

you accepted the award on his behalf. I thought that's right. Yes.

[Mark Leibovich]

Wouldn't that have been fun?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Liberal reporter comes out pro Mandela. Right. You know what?

[Mark Leibovich]

You'd be surprised. Resistance. No.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So what do you think about, I mean, Trump is the, you know, has investigated reporters, has trashed the press, has stomped over the First Amendment. His secretary of defense, who is a guest of the Paramount Corporation, has kicked the reporters out of the Pentagon. Talk to me about how the press thinks about going to that dinner in that context.

[Mark Leibovich]

Well, I think it's uncomfortable at best. I mean, look, I mean, the Atlantic is still going and I mean, I

[Jon Favreau]

assume you guys have been invited to some signal chain, so it's okay.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's right. I mean, everyone in the group chat gets a table.

[Mark Leibovich]

No, I mean, look, look, just, I mean, this week, I mean, like Sarah Kirkpatrick, my colleague, I mean, she wrote this Cash Patel story. They, they served us. I mean, they're, they filed lawsuit two days ago, which, I mean, there's, that's a little bit standard. I mean, like, nasty story.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's a constitutional response.

[Mark Leibovich]

The constitutional response, yes. Correct. But I don't see how many, I mean, I, I don't know a lot of journalists who are excited about it any more than they would normally be. Now there's sort of like a sport around. You have to sort of, you know, roll your eyes at the whole thing. It's like, oh, I'm above it, but my bosses are making it. And I mean, you can also get a lot of work done. I mean, if you're one stop shopping and you want to talk to people and stuff. But no, but I mean, I think the dissonance between what Trump talks about, what the administration has done and what the dinner is supposed to stand for kind of is pretty obvious.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, that be highlighted when the Wall Street Journal gets the reward for their Epstein letter story.

[Mark Leibovich]

That'll be an interesting scene, right? I mean, I do wonder about it. I mean, I was actually. I still think there's a non zero chance that he could pull out. Yeah, but who knows?

[Jon Favreau]

250 journalists, Dan Rather, Sam Donaldson signed an open letter demanding that the White House Correspondents association use the podium to condemn Trump by name and toast the First Amendment. You think there's any chance they do that?

[Mark Leibovich]

I was gonna say something snarky, but I would say no, I don't think there's a chance.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, like I said, it's funny because at first I'm like, well, that's not gonna happen. But I'm like, what?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Why should. That.

[Jon Favreau]

I could imagine a condemnation that is not so harsh and unfair that it. Like, I could imagine doing it in a thoughtful way.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, I can see that, but I don't. I mean, who's the president of the Correspondence Association? Well, actually, it's Donald Trump. Marco Rubio is now the.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, the whole thing is. It's always been bizarre. It's more bizarre now. The best argument that the media organizations can make is the money goes to pay for scholarships for young journalists.

[Mark Leibovich]

Scholarships. Yep.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

There are other ways to raise money for journalists of scholarships that don't involve a toast to a president who disbanded the White House press pool. Maybe.

[Mark Leibovich]

But, yeah, the toast to the President of the United States is always. I mean, I don't care who the president is. It just strikes me as distasteful.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

The whole thing, even, like the toast is crazy. Imagining the toast tonight, tomorrow, whenever it is Saturday night, it's crazy.

[Mark Leibovich]

It is.

[Jon Favreau]

It's one thing to be there with him, which is like, you can debate that enough, but the actual toast is just. What are we doing?

[Mark Leibovich]

There are two reasons to go.

[Tommy Vietor]

Go.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean, one, the comedians can be good.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No comedian this year, though, right? It's a mentalist.

[Jon Favreau]

Forget that the manosphere is mentalist, apparently.

[Mark Leibovich]

And there are certain moments when presidents can delay, you know, with good timing. I mean, the guy you worked for can. Can do. Well, I don't think Biden's talks were terribly good. Bush had his moments. I thought Clinton had his moments. I don't know. I mean, but that's. Those days are long gone.

[Jon Favreau]

Last question for you. This town came out in 2013. If you were writing the 2026 edition. What's the opening scene? Who's the central character?

[Mark Leibovich]

Opening scene. Oh, man, you put me on the spot.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Do you want me to do it for you?

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, please.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You're at Butterworth's.

[Mark Leibovich]

No, that story's been done.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

What about that club?

[Jon Favreau]

I thought I texted you about one. There was a funeral. There was another funeral.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean, there have been a lot of funeral.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, because you opened this town, as people know.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean, here's the thing. I mean.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Oh, there was a funeral.

[Jon Favreau]

Wasn't it Carter's. Were you at Carter's funeral?

[Mark Leibovich]

I've done a lot. Okay, so here's the thing. Since that book came out, or Cheney, the New York Times. I did do a Chaney piece, and I've been assigned a number of pieces. I remember one of the last pieces I did for the New York Times. I was kind of playing out the string, cleaning out my desk, and Elizabeth Bumiller, my boss, walked over to me and said, hey, you know, Bob Dole died. And the, the funerals at the Kennedy center, or not the Kennedy center at the National Cathedral on Friday, you got to cover it. So, I mean, there are several moments like that where I was kind of became the funeral guy. That was during COVID too, I remember, like, and it was a huge deal fun beat to wear a mask because you were in a cathedral, you are packed with elderly people, you know, signs everywhere, Wear a mask, wear a mask. DC Rules, the whole thing. And I remember looking, I was sitting in the press area right above where the Senate was seated, where most a lot of the sitting senators were. Every single one of them was wearing a mask, except for Ted Cruz, who was being completely ostentatious about it. And, you know, we're talking elderly people. There's no vaccine yet, you know, right across the way. And I mean, it was a church. I mean, just the whole thing. And, you know, he probably got a shout out for it anyway there. The problem with, I mean, Tim Russert. That was the thing, though. I mean, the critique, which seems very quaint now, was that there was this one world, one Washington, you know, overly chummy world between the media and the money people and the lobbyists and the former people and the elected officials and the White House and Congress. And that was what was insidious at the time. Which, of course, in retrospect, seems like a comedy of matters, manners. I mean, the fact that Trent Lott and John Breaux, a Democrat and a Republican, Republican and a Democrat, would go into business together and make money, I mean, that was like a scandal. And I mean, again, it's almost. I'm not embarrassed by it because it was just a. But it just gives you a sense of how much time has passed.

[Jon Favreau]

The second book was Suck Up Culture, but it was really around Trump.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Trump, yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

And that would be the second term does feel different.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean, I do think. Okay, so I think that it's kind of running on two tracks now. It's Suck up culture around Trump, which is orders of magnitude worse now. I mean, it's gone beyond cult level parody. But there's also. So my book was called thank youk for your Servitude. I don't know if I could talk about this, but I will. Anyway. Jacob Weisberg has a book coming out called Profiles and Cowardice, which I read like a part of it. And it's a similar way there's a lot of that. I mean it's sort of of a piece to that.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know.

[Mark Leibovich]

I mean I do think that it's hard to think of like what the one what the merger of MAGA and sort of normie politics as we know it. Whether, you know, independents, Democrats, some Republicans.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. I mean my sense, like I've been gone from the city for 10 years now, but my sense is there is just less of the stuff that was at the center of your book, which is basically this idea that everyone cosplayed rivals during the day and then they went to the same cocktail parties at night and all hung out and it was the one party circuit. And it doesn't seem like that's necessarily still the case in the same way.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah, I don't see how it could. I honestly don't. I mean, I just have people who, I mean believe, I mean you've all lived here. I mean it was actually possible to have bipartisan friendships. It's hard. Like, I mean MAGA just like it's a whole different dimension and they don't seem to want to have much to do with mainstream journalists, mainstream Democrats, you know, people who have been critical of President Trump and vice versa.

[Jon Favreau]

Democratic institutions.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah. I mean again, I mean I always thought that and, and other presidents have tried variations on this, but I mean blowing off the White House correspondents dinner would, would have been a great move for any president. Not, not just when Trump heard Trump started doing it. I mean I thought, you know, Obama, Bush, whoever would have gotten, you know, would have gotten credit for it in some way. It might have been some grudging, you

[Dan Pfeiffer]

know, people would have come, people would

[Mark Leibovich]

have complained, but they would have walked into your. How disrespectful to the First Amendment. Yeah, that would have been. Been terrible. Yeah. Anyway, no, but so I mean. Yeah, so Trump was obviously he wasn't onto something, but I mean he just sort of, he just trashed the, whatever polite society existed here that was probably too cozy for its own good.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But now he's trying to just run it because he went to the Alfalfa. Didn't he go to the Alfalfa dinner?

[Mark Leibovich]

He did, yeah, he did.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Which makes the White House correspondents dinner look like Buffalo wild wings.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah. Three pretty. That's a good line. No, I've never actually been to the Alfalfa dinner.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I staffed Obama at it once.

[Mark Leibovich]

Really?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I went, I ate Burger King in the, in the back room while he spoke because there they didn't have food for the staff. So. So Reggie and I, Marvin.

[Jon Favreau]

I.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

To go to Burger King to eat.

[Mark Leibovich]

That's perfect. Yeah. You probably had the best time of anyone. Yeah. So, Markovich. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Thank you so much.

[Mark Leibovich]

Thanks, guys.

[Jon Favreau]

Come to our party. We'll toast you. We'll do a toast to the First Amendment specifically.

[Mark Leibovich]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I'll bring your First Amendment pins.

[Mark Leibovich]

Oh, I totally will. Yeah. Actually, you know what, though? There'll be, like a. Like a kitty for us to, like, put money in for the scholarships, right?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, yes, of course.

[Mark Leibovich]

The Pod Save America scholarship. Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

For young podcasters.

[Mark Leibovich]

Young podcast. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Just starting out. All right. Thanks, Leibovich.

[Mark Leibovich]

Buy the tight T shirts. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Thanks to Mark Leibovich for coming on. Tommy will be back with an interview with Sarah Longwell on Sundays psa. And then Tommy and Lovett and I will be back with a new episode in your feed on Tuesdays.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Bye, everyone.

[Jon Favreau]

If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a crooked Media production. Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Frank Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. Jordan Kanter is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Hayley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Kiril Pelaviev, David Toles, and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. A vacation rental shouldn't come with surprises. It should come with verbo Care and 24. 7 Life Support. If the hot tub's broken, that's a verbo care thing.

[Tommy Vietor]

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