Trump’s 4th Threesome

Summary

Pod Save America: "Trump’s 4th Threesome"

Date: July 2, 2026
Hosts: Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer, Tommy Vietor

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Episode Overview

On this early-recorded 4th of July episode, Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer dive into how Donald Trump is marking America’s 250th birthday—from opulent Air Force One trips and AI conversations with Teddy Roosevelt, to fireworks spectacles and a polarizing presidential style. The hosts cut through major headlines including Trump’s jaw-dropping $2 billion presidential profits, the right-wing freakout over the Supreme Court’s ruling on birthright citizenship, the dynamics in progressive Democratic primaries, and newly dropped New York Times polls shaping the Senate map for the upcoming midterms.

With their signature mix of sharp analysis, exasperated humor, and real talk about the state of the country, the Pod Save America crew offer a dense, insightful, and often hilarious rundown of what actually matters in the news right now.

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1. 4th of July: Trump’s America 250 & The AI Teddy Roosevelt (03:37–08:26)

• Trump’s celebration: President Trump is making a show of America’s 250th Independence Day with “the most spectacular Trump rally of them all” (03:31), including record-setting fireworks and a “long speech” in 107-degree heat. He’s also appeared with an AI-generated Teddy Roosevelt at the opening of the new presidential library.
• Hosts’ take: The event is cast as gaudy, self-serving, and disconnected from most Americans’ mood.
  • Jon Favreau jokes about whether Trump understands he’s talking to an AI Chatbot (“Does he think he’s talking to Teddy Roosevelt? Does he understand how an AI Chatbot hologram works?” – 07:49), before Dan Pfeiffer ponders if Democrats should debut their own AI Ronald Reagan at the next convention.

Memorable Moment

“Trump then jets back to D.C. for what he’s calling, ‘the most spectacular Trump rally of them all,’ which will reportedly include over 800,000 fireworks…”
– Jon Favreau (04:00)

Notable Quote

“Now, as I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I think I’m going to give one to myself, one to them, and we’ll have a threesome. Okay?”
– (AI) Donald Trump impersonation, quoting from Trump’s speech (06:14)

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2. Right-Wing Reaction to AI, Corruption, and Over-Politicalized Holiday (08:26–13:14)

• AI & Government Ownership: Discussion of OpenAI offering a US government stake—an idea also floated by progressives, but with major pitfalls if handled by Trump.
• Trump’s “Threesome” Gaffe: The hosts riff on Trump’s odd medal “threesome” comment, noting:

  “I suspect that Trump, as someone who’s lived the life he’s lived, is very familiar with threesomes.”
  – Dan Pfeiffer (09:37)

• America 250 events: The consensus: Most Americans aren’t paying attention. The spectacle is more self-aggrandizement for Trump than a unifying national celebration.

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3. Trump’s 250 Pardons, $2 Billion Profits & Congress’s Silence (13:14–19:36)

• 250 Pardons Proposal: Trump is floating the idea of 250 presidential pardons to mark the anniversary—framed as "Trump the merciful.”
• Presidential Corruption: Trump’s financial disclosures show over $2 billion in presidential income (esp. via a crypto “Ponzi scheme”). The hosts lambaste the lack of congressional oversight or GOP accountability.
  • Jon Favreau is incredulous: “I must have missed the announcement from the Republican Congress that they will be launching impeachment hearings over this. Did you catch it?” (14:38)
  • Dan Pfeiffer: “He weaponized their adoration for him and their trust in him, got them to buy bogus crypto coins, essentially pulled the rug out from underneath them…” (16:29)
• Political Impact: The consensus is that Trump’s corruption is “baked in” for voters (approval at 37%), but Democrats must tie the “stink” to the Republican Congress ahead of the midterms:
  • “We got to get some of that stink on the Republican Congress.”
    – Jon Favreau (19:04)

Notable Quotes

“People think Trump always believed Trump was corrupt in some way, shape or form. And they also think most politicians are corrupt. Trump just dips his beak a little deeper than everyone else.”
– Dan Pfeiffer (18:07)

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4. Supreme Court’s Birthright Citizenship Ruling & MAGA Freakout (23:33–29:33)

• Court Decision: The Supreme Court affirms the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of birthright citizenship, striking down Trump’s attempted executive order to end it.
• Far-Right Outrage: MAGA pundits (Matt Walsh, Sean Davis, Stephen Miller) erupt in apocalyptic rhetoric—suggesting bans on entry for pregnant foreigners and forced sterilization (24:57–27:28).
• Host Response: Favreau and Pfeiffer dissect the absurdity and racism behind these reactions, comparing them to Reagan’s “welfare queens” strategy and noting the minuscule size (or outright fabrication) of “birth tourism.”
  • Dan Pfeiffer: “These people are just disgusting, opportunistic, delusional ghouls…” (24:57)
  • Jon Favreau: “What about foreign nationals who are legal permanent residents…? Who gets to decide who’s a citizen? Trump and Stephen Miller get to decide? They get that power?” (29:13)

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5. Progressive Primary Upsets in Colorado & Party Dynamics (29:35–38:49)

• Colorado Surge: DSA candidate Milat Kiros ousts 15-term incumbent Diana DeGette in Denver, driven by both left policy and anti-establishment anger.
• Host Analysis: The pattern echoes New York’s recent insurgent wins and larger anti-establishment sentiment.
  • “These are all different. They do speak to the fact that you really don’t want to be a longtime Democratic establishment figure like that. You are vulnerable in a way in which you’ve never been before.”
    – Dan Pfeiffer (35:12)
• Factors: Loss of trust in establishment, Gaza/Israel divides, a hunger for candidates who will actually fight—and generational change.

Memorable Exchange:

Interviewer: “I believe that the ad also suggested that centrist Democrats suck shit. Is that your belief as well?”
– (Local news interview re: Kiros campaign, 31:02)

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6. National Trends, DSA Momentum & 2028 Election Foreshadowing (43:18–49:15)

• Steve Bannon Remarks: Bannon warns the GOP not to dismiss DSA and progressive momentum (“They campaign as anti-establishment very smartly… It’s very sophisticated and it clearly resonates.” – 43:27).
• Kamala Harris 2028: Reports surface she’s reaching out to AOC, Zoran Mamdani, and uncommitted movement leaders, suggesting plans for a more leftward, anti-establishment presidential run.
  • Dan Pfeiffer: “She has to do what people around her were saying during the campaign was…very real empathy for the Palestinians and anger at the Israelis that she was never willing to say out loud…” (46:17)
  • Both agree: if she pivots, it must be authentic, not focus-grouped.

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7. Deep Dive: Senate Polls & the Fall Map (50:43–76:56)

• Senate Landscape: New NYT/Siena polls show Democrats tied or trailing in vital races; the path to a majority is tough in red states like Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio.
  • “These polls are a somewhat painful reality check of just how tough the Senate map is.”
    – Dan Pfeiffer (51:42)
• Main Challenges:
  • Democratic overperformance in candidate favorability isn’t enough given the generic ballot edge for Republicans in most key states.
  • The anti-establishment, anti-incumbent mood is real—but there’s still a persistent national dislike/wariness toward the Democratic brand in red states.
  • Sherrod Brown (OH) lauded for maintaining a positive image, but the specifics of the electorate (older, whiter, less mobile) work against Democrats in places like Ohio and Iowa.
• Maine Race: Focus on Graham Platner versus Susan Collins. Attack ads hone in on corruption and government accountability, but hosts argue that tying Collins to Trump (“a vote for Susan Collins is a vote for Trump and another Trump Supreme Court justice”) is the sharper message (70:20–76:51).
  • “There should never be an ad run that is not Susan Collins standing in the Oval Office holding that MAGA hat.”
    – Dan Pfeiffer (70:20)

Key Timestamps

• 04:02: Trump’s 4th of July plans and spectacle
• 06:14: Trump’s “threesome” comment and hosts’ mockery
• 13:14: 250 pardons and financial corruption segment
• 23:33: Reaction to Supreme Court birthright citizenship case
• 29:35: Progressive primary results breakdown
• 43:27: Steve Bannon’s warning to the GOP
• 50:43: Senate map and polling deep dive
• 70:20: Targeted strategy for defeating Susan Collins in Maine

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Noteworthy Quotes & Moments

• On Abnormal Political Times:

  “It’s all dumb and gross. Which I guess is kind of the theme of the entire era in which we’re living.”
  – Dan Pfeiffer (26:15)

• On the Democratic Establishment:

  “There’s a generational element to this, too.”
  – Dan Pfeiffer (38:24)

• On Kamala’s 2028 Challenge:

  “You can’t focus group it… You can’t worry about Joe Biden.”
  – Dan Pfeiffer (47:26)

• Closing out the show:

  “We need a bunch of people who want the Democrats to control the Senate to vote for Graham Platner. If you do that, you will win.”
  – Dan Pfeiffer (76:51)

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Conclusion

This episode is a fast-moving, insightful, and wry take on how Trump’s personal politics and spectacle dominate headlines on a milestone American holiday—while undercurrents of anti-establishment energy, progressive insurgency, and Senate election anxieties shape the real battlegrounds to come. The hosts blend cutting critique, policy depth, and offbeat banter to make sense of another wild political summer.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

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[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

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[Dan Pfeiffer]

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[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

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[Jon Favreau]

Refreshers contain caffeine. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

[Jon Favreau]

Happy 4th. We decided to record a little early ahead of the long weekend. Long week for me. I'm heading to Maine for vacation to see if I can get some of those Harris Collins voters back on side. You know, you POD boys saying nice things about platinum. I'm just gonna try to go to Maine and get it done myself.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You know, if there's any group we have a lot of sway with, it is older women, Susan Collins voters in Maine.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, I'm telling you, I'm going to where I'm going. That is the place.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's right. Emily's been on the ground for weeks.

[Jon Favreau]

I know.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Platinum numbers.

[Jon Favreau]

I know. I'm bringing in reinforcements. What are you guys up to for the Fourth? Are you sticking around?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

We're sticking around. We're having a bunch of people over. It's very chill Fourth.

[Jon Favreau]

You're not gonna.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Very patriotic, but chill Fourth, you're not

[Jon Favreau]

gonna check out the California exhibit at the great state fair in D.C. and listen to Trump's speech.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

We are gonna listen to Trump's speech. We're gonna gather everyone around the tv. We're gonna watch it together as a family, as any America would do.

[Jon Favreau]

Perfect. Perfect. The kids will always remember how they spent their America's 250 with their half century old dad. I mean, I heard that. I heard that's what your kids are calling you.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's what my. That's what Kylie keeps saying to me. She's like, dad, you're now a half a century old.

[Jon Favreau]

That is brutal. That hit me hard. Mainly because I'm only a couple years away, but.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, trust me, I will make sure that your children call you half century in five years or whatever it is.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, you could probably get Charlie going on that now. All right, we got some news to cover before we take off for the break. Trump making $2 billion since taking office, the right wing freakout over birthright citizenship, more progressive primary wins in Colorado, and you and I are going to nerd the hell out over some brand new New York Times polls on all the biggest Senate races. Fun. But first, let's talk about how our president is celebrating America's 250th birthday by jumping on his brand new Qatari palace in the sky, formerly known as Air Force One, which touched down in the Dakotas for the opening of Teddy Roosevelt's presidential library and a fireworks show at Mount Rushmore, even though people there were worried it might start a wildfire. The veepiest thing ever. Trump then jets back to D.C. for what he's calling, quote, the most spectacular Trump rally of them all, which will reportedly include over 800,000 fireworks in an attempt to set the Guinness World Record. Trump seems to be going for another record as well. He said, quote, it's going to be approximately 107 degrees out and I'm gonna make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That is the American spirit.

[Jon Favreau]

That is the American spirit. This is apparently why the fireworks aren't starting until after 11pm Eastern. Very cool, very considerate. Trump's really been on one this week. Here he is talking about and to Teddy Roosevelt at the opening of the museum this week.

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

Theodore Roosevelt, he had great passion. The colonel they called him was an American man. He was really a great he man. They say it was 40 pounds of muscle. I don't know how the hell that happened. They didn't have modern day drugs, of course. The modern day drugs don't do that either, do they? In fact, they actually take away the muscle. That's not good. His son was brave. It's genetics, you know, it's like the racehorse theory. They're the only father and son pair to receive our nation's highest military award for courage above and beyond. Now, as I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I think I'm going to give one to myself, one to them, and we'll have a threesome. Okay? I even had a conversation with Theodore Roosevelt. I said, what did you think about the Panama Canal? Do you consider that your greatest achievement? How do you feel about the fact that the Democrats gave the Panama Canal away to Panama for $1?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Keep your nerve and remember, the nation comes first. You get through, I know you, you got healing yourself.

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

Well, I appreciate those words. Those words are fantastic. And I just want to say it's an honor to be with you today. We are making a little bit of a tour. Some of the fantastic things you've done.

[Jon Favreau]

There he is. There he is, Jacked AI Teddy Roosevelt, all muscle. He and his son, big winners. And maybe Trump and his son can also be winners and have a threesome. What do you think?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It just doesn't seem to me like Trump fully understands what's happening in the conversation with the AI Teddy Roosevelt?

[Jon Favreau]

No, I don't know that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Does he think he's talking to Teddy Roose? Does he understand how an AI Chatbot hologram works?

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I'm sure.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Should we be doing more of this? Should Democrats have a AI Ronald Reagan at our convention to talk about how Trump is, is not a Republican? I mean, there are all kinds of things you could do here.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Trump was deep in the weeds on the executive order to lift the export controls on, on Fable and, and mythos, the Claude LLMs. He was, he's, he's deep in the weeds there because he has a lot of thoughts on those models, so I'm sure he understands.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Speaking of AI, did you, did you see that OpenAI offered the US government a 5% stake in the company?

[Jon Favreau]

Yes. You know, that's also an idea on the left, by the way, that some have proposed. I believe Ro Khanna has proposed that.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It is.

[Jon Favreau]

Now the challenge is, and Bernie has proposed that too. The idea is the government gets a stake of it and then the government distributes like on the upside of these AI companies that have used, the government distributes that to people as like a, like, like an oil royalty for, for our age. Of course, the challenge is what happens when Donald Trump is in charge or another Donald Trump is in charge. Right. Like you'd want to, you'd want to have that kind of power in the hands of a president who's into redistribution?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, you'd have to write, you'd have to write a law that like the, like the oil royalties in Alaska. But that's, that's, that's all.

[Jon Favreau]

That's neither here nor there. Trump's talking to AI Teddy Roosevelt, talking about threesomes with his kids. Do you think he caught that? Do you think afterwards someone was like, hey, people are laughing because you did talk. Because the word threesome usually doesn't just mean you and your sons having medals.

[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, I suspect that Trump, as someone who's lived the life he's lived, is very familiar with threesomes.

[Jon Favreau]

You think he's that generous?

[Tommy Vietor]

Maybe he.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Maybe.

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

I mean,

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I know. I think threesome Trump is a sign of selfishness is my guess. Also. Poor Baron.

[Jon Favreau]

I know.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Didn't, didn't make the familial threesome.

[Jon Favreau]

That kid caught a lucky break, I guess. Larger question for you. How do you think all These Trump Organized America 250 events are landing with people who aren't MAGA fans or whiny America hating libs like us you think most people are seeing all this?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I kind of presume they're not seeing it. It's just. It's not. It's not really breaking through in any way, shape or form. None of it's exciting, none of it's interesting. People are pretty busy. They have a million options for how to spend their. Their limited attention. To the extent they hear anything, Trump is. Trump has made it all political. And so there's a whole group of people, like, people like us will either make fun of it or. Or ignore it. And then the people who don't really care about politics or actively avoid politics will immediately turn away from. Like, you could see a world potentially where a different president does something different that is more in the theoretical spirit of America, that is more bipartisan. You know, you could see a world where a Democratic president, or even a different Republican president who comes from a different Republican Party in an alternative universe has on stage the Obamas, the Bidens, the Clintons, the Bushes, and we're, you know, basically Obama library opening. But. But, you know, I just. I went back and looked a lot of, like, what happened in 1976. And so much of it, it happened in an election year, which is notable. But also just so much of the attention to. It also had a lot to do with the fact that we lived in a world where there were three TV station channels and you had to watch it, and so you couldn't. It just. It was, like, beamed into the brains of American people. People did get kind of involved. Like, I saw a whole thing about how people decorated all their. Painted all the fire hydrants red, white. Some of them turn into, like, very funny, like, Abe Lincoln fire hydrants and things like that. But just in this day and age, it's hard to get people's attention like that. And Trump is not trying to actually do that. He's trying to make it about himself. And that was doomed to fail.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, the attention of the country is pretty much World cup is America's.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, that's like the 250th celebration was last night in the World cup game where everyone came together and now wants to throw tea in the pool of the referee who gave us the red card, I guess would be the appropriate colonial response.

[Jon Favreau]

Find his pool. Just dump it with. Dump it. Dump some tea in it. Yeah, no, I. I've been really into some of, like, the, you know, opinion pieces on this. I was, like, watching that Netflix has a good doc, the American Experiment, that I was.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Have you been watching that?

[Jon Favreau]

I was. I was Watching that. I'm a sucker for, like, Revolutionary War history. And. But then I was. And I was, like, thinking about it a lot, and I thought I was maybe gonna write something about it. I'm like, really? This is just a. A small circle of people talking to each other who already talk to each other on Substack and other places.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Hey, don't. Do not knock that. Do not knock. A small circle. People talk to each other very much.

[Jon Favreau]

Readers and New York Times readers and podcasts. I'm like, it is, you know, the people trying to get most of the country to pay attention to the 250th anniversary seems like a tall order when Donald Trump is president and everything else is going on.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I just want to caution you that if your new logic is it's only going to reach a small group of people talking to each other, you're going to stop doing all things.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, I would talk to people about other. Other issues.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay, fair enough.

[Jon Favreau]

Like, what am I trying to convince people of? That it's. That this is what America's really about. Yeah, like, that's. We're all on board. All right. Few other Trump items to discuss. Lest you think he's trying to make this anniversary all about himself, Trump is reportedly considering an idea described as 250 pardons for 250 years. That's how a person close to the White House described it to the Atlantic in an effort to, quote, reinforce an image he has long sought to cultivate. Trump the merciful. Yeah, that's that. He's really been working hard on that. I don't know how much progress he's made. The piece goes on to say, quote, the prospect of a mass pardon has set off an international frenzy of lobbying and deal making in which even slight proximity to the president can be monetized. No shit. And speaking of monetizing the presidency, Trump's 2025 financial disclosure just came out and shows that the President of the United States raked in at least 2.2 billion last year while in office, with at least 1.4 billion of that coming from his family's cryptocurrency business, Ponzi scheme. What better way for a president to celebrate America's 250th than by using his office to make $2 billion off a Ponzi scheme and then also pardon all of his rich criminal friends. I must have missed the announcement from the Republican Congress that they will be launching impeachment hearings over this. Did you catch it?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No. I must have missed it, too. I was so Busy taking in the. The sights of the. Of the Great American State Fair that I might have missed this. The, the 250 pardons thing is so funny because there's a line in the story which says. I'm going to read it here. One advisor said there had been polling that suggested a mass pardon could benefit the President.

[Jon Favreau]

I caught that. I caught that. Where do you think.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

How do you think they handle that? Yeah. So you know who commissioned that poll? A bunch of criminals or a bunch of people making money off the criminals? Like, that's who commissioned that poll. There is no poll that suggests a mass pardon of. Frankly, anyone like, pardons can be good. Commuting people's sentences who have unfair drug sentences, all these other. Like, there's good use of pardon power. Even that is never popular. A mass pardon is not popular. It's an insane thing. It's something that someone told Trump in order to get him to pardon people that has hired this advisor to do.

[Jon Favreau]

I was honestly trying to think of how the question would be worded to get a good result. And it would be like, do you think the president should reduce the sentences of people who've been unfairly imprisoned by a weaponized justice, wrongly convicted?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. If the. Are you. Would you approve or disapprove of the President releasing people, innocent people from prison like that?

[Jon Favreau]

Yes, that is probably. Yeah. That probably showed that he was going to give him a little boost.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Now, on the corruption thing, it is. I mean, the amount of money Trump's made is truly unbelievable. And the thing that makes it so much worse than it could possibly be, and it's hard to imagine it could be worse than that, is it's not like Trump just picked a bunch of smart stocks or even got inside information or inside access to some IPO that took off or even did some sweetheart real estate deals, which he was trying

[Jon Favreau]

to say yesterday when asked about it, he was like, well, everyone's profiting because the S and P is up. Like, no, that's not what's happening.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, no, that's not exactly what happened there. And most of his money is not in this, although he does do a lot of day trading. What is most of the money here is from the crypto money, and that is a very specific Ponzi scheme run against his most loyal supporters. He took money, he. He weaponized their adoration for him and their trust in him, got them to buy bogus crypto coins, essentially pulled the rug out from underneath them, and sold a chunk of the company to the. To an emirati fund perhaps in exchange for selling America's most valuable technology to the Emirates.

[Jon Favreau]

The story about this in the Times, as you said. Yeah, the, the cryptocurrency coin created by World Liberty Financial has sunk to less than 6 cents, a more than 80% drop from its peak, generating enormous losses for investors who bought it at a higher price.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And Trump made money on all. It's not just the value of the coin. He also was making money off the sale of all the coins as well.

[Jon Favreau]

Yep, just a total grift. I mean, what do you think about this? Like it's, I, I mentioned the Republican Congress, cuz and you know, we're gonna talk about this in a bit with the polls but it's like, yeah, people think that Trump is corrupt. Message delivered. And, but we're not trying to beat Trump in the midterms, we are trying to beat the Republican Congress. And these people could do something about it. They could be like, hey, the President is profiting off a Ponzi scheme while in office. There's all this kinds of corrupt dealings going on. There's all kinds of foreign entanglements as you mentioned, and potentially foreign corruption, foreign influence that he's working on. Nothing.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean Tommy and I talked about this a little bit in onlyfriends yesterday, but I think the corruption stuff is already in, it's already price into the baseline here in two ways. One, people think Trump always believed Trump was corrupt in some way, shape or form. And they also think most politicians are corrupt. Trump just dips his beak a little deeper than everyone else. But he, he is suffering from the full weight of all of these things. I mean his approval ratings at 37%. Like how much lower do we expect it to go? And is it just because of the corruption? No. Is there one more piece of corruption that's going to come out that's going to drive him to 32?

[Tommy Vietor]

No.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But the way I think about all these things is they are all affordability related. This is just all the shit he's doing that's not helping you. And that stuff hit different when prices were low and it, and it's much worse for Trump when prices are high. And so people do care. Maybe not as much as we want them to care, but it does hurt him politically. It absolutely does. And we're already seeing that in the polls.

[Jon Favreau]

No, my point is that we got to get some of that stink on the Republican Congress.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I mean they're. Yes, yes. And you see that in.

[Jon Favreau]

Because you're right, look. No, I completely agree with everything you said. Like we can't. Like we did it. People know that he's a bad president. You look poll after poll after poll after poll like he is losing that argument. But he is also a lame duck president who is not on the ballot this November.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. And there's a question about whether that is putting the stink. We'll talk about this in the next section. Whether that's putting the stink on the Republicans or taking the stink off the Democrats is the best route to doing that.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. Plenty of stink or a more likely

[Dan Pfeiffer]

combination of the two.

[Jon Favreau]

Plenty of stink to go around. Should say that hiring also slowed to 57,000 jobs added last month. The jobs numbers came out way below expectations. And the last two months that they were celebrating, of course, have been revised down. So not a great economy unless you're Donald Trump and you have a crypto scheme that you're profiting off of. Even the Wall Street Journal. By the way, just see there's a Wall Street Journal editorial.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No, how did I miss this?

[Jon Favreau]

About Donald Trump, about Donald Trump's corruption, which is notable because I know you and Tommy talked about the New York Post did an editorial just criticizing Trump's corruption and now Wall Street Journal. So all the Murdoch properties except for Fox, they even said yowzers, yowsers. The Wall Street Journal said the main difference between Hunter Biden's foreign dealings and the Trump projects is that the Trumps are brazenly open about theirs. But there will be political costs for Republicans if Democrats take back the House or Senate. They will field day probing the Trump family deals. Charges of GOP corruption will resound through 2028. This will feed the left's class warfare and narrative that billionaire oligarchs are getting rich off government. Will it feed that narrative? I wonder why. Probably because it's a true narrative.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's right. Yes. Would it tell people what's happening?

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's what happened.

[Jon Favreau]

Anyway. That's. That's from your liberal friends at the Wall Street Journal. So.

[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

Foreign

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

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[Tommy Vietor]

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[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

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[Jon Favreau]

we should also discuss the absolute freakout in Magaworld over the Supreme Court's decision to affirm the right to citizenship that comes with being born in the United States as granted by the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. After slavery was abolished more than 150 years ago, the court struck down Trump's effort to end birthright citizenship via executive order. But the President's reaction to this was pretty mild compared to Trump allies like the Daily Wire's Matt Walsh, who said that America's committing suicide and the fact that his children are having their birthright destroyed, quote, fills me with rage so deep I can't describe it. Sean Davis, co founder of the Federalist, tweeted out some potential remedies that include denying entry to the US to all female foreigners, all pregnant women, and requiring sterilization of all foreign visitors prior to entry. And you know who says he's looking into these ideas? Stephen Miller, who has been absolutely hysterical about this. He's talking about national suicide, national self obliteration, and, quote, a deep knife wound in the heart of the American republic. All right, what do you make of the reaction, and specifically, what do you make of Stephen Miller and other White House officials considering this crackdown on pregnant women entering the country? Can't believe I had to say those words.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And these people are just disgusting, opportunistic, delusional ghouls. Like, it is, it's so. It is, it's just so stupid. And it is so, like, just think of, think about this, right? In 2018, Republican, like there is some political in their. I try to, like, sometimes try to put myself in their heads, pretend that they are quasi rational political actors. Like, I think Stephen Miller is doing this from a just purely sincere, deeply held racial, racial animus.

[Jon Favreau]

100.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I think other people in the MAGA world are looking at this. While they certainly share some of that racial animus, they are also looking this politically and in their mind.

[Jon Favreau]

I think, I think Sean Davis and Matt Walsh are absolutely genuine.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. But, you know, I think they look at this and say, we're getting killed on all the, on affordability, all these other issues. What is the one issue where Trump is not 20,000 leagues underwater and that is border security. And so can we move the conversation back to border security now? The flaw in this plan is that in 2018, when Republicans were getting ready to lose the midterms, they concocted a fake story about a caravan of Ms. 13 members marching to America. And the 2026 version of that is a bunch of pregnant with tourists.

[Jon Favreau]

It's just so fucking. It's, it's the, it's the grossest thing.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it's just, it's so stupid. It's just so. It's also so stupid. Like, dude, you really. It means it's so painfully dumb and gross. It's all dumb and gross. Which I guess is kind of the theme of the entire era in which we're living.

[Jon Favreau]

But the center for Immigration Studies, which is the far right immigration organization, they. Because their whole argument here, Trump's argument, Miller's argument, is this like birth tourism, right? That people are coming here illegally and then they're having kids so they can be American citizens. And then, you know, I guess then the whole country falls apart. But even they say that this is. They put birth tourism at roughly 20,000 cases a year. There are about 3.61 million births in the United States every year, so that is well under 1%. And that number, the 20,000, is contested by just about everyone. Because this is a right wing organization. Some people think it's far, far less like a couple thousand. But even if you go by their arguments, it is like it is just again, much like their voter fraud shit, completely made up argument.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It is the danger, like it seems absurd to us. The danger of it is you take the most egregious, outlandish, rarest, if possibly non existent example and you use it to take down an entire system like this is Ronald Reagan and the welfare queens all over again, where this is a way to try to undo birthright citizenship, which as you and I Talked about on YouTube after the hearing, you know, you have a potential Supreme Court majority or near majority at this point, who would suggest that that could be done statutorily. And so you kind of understand, like, I understand the short term political argument there, the longer term thing is to try to make people think this is something that's really happening when it's not actually happening.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And then the flip side of that from picking the most egregious example is basically what John Roberts argued about the dissent in this case, which was the dissent was like, well, the word domicile should mean where the parents have allegiance to. And if the parents were born in some other country and have allegiance to that country and owe something to that country, then, you know, then we shouldn't, then the child shouldn't be a U.S. citizen. And Roberts was like, okay, well what about foreign nationals who are legal permanent residents in this country? And if you're a foreign national, if you have dual citizenship or even if you just have a, you know, you're a legal permanent resident in this country and you're still a citizen of another country. You do have some allegiance to that other country and you are still pay some taxes to that other country. And so now we're saying that all foreign born people in this country who have children here, those children are American citizens. And then at that point, who gets to decide who's a citizen? Trump. Trump gets Trump and Stephen Miller get to decide who's a citizen. They get that power. The government gets to decide.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's their argument.

[Jon Favreau]

And I think that is the argument that most people in this country would not get behind that your citizenship is determined not by your birth, not by where your parents are from, but by Donald Trump and Stephen Miller.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, that's right. That's right.

[Jon Favreau]

All right, let's talk about what's happening with the people who are trying to bounce these jokers out of office. On Tuesday, Colorado held its primaries and once again progressive candidates won the day. In the first district, which is basically the heart of metro Denver, 29 year old immigrant turned lawyer turned insurgent, DSA candidate Milat Quiros beat Diana DeGette, a 15 term incumbent, by about 10 points. Quiros is a PhD student who lost her job at a prominent law firm in 2023 after refusing to take down an open letter she wrote about what she saw as a crackdown on criticism of Israel. How did she manage to beat an entrenched incumbent like Diana deget? In part because of exchanges like this from a debate in early June.

[Range Rover Sport Advertiser / Guest Voice]

And when we have that opportunity again, we have to pass Medicare for all, cancel all medical debt and break up big medicine to drive back competition in the healthcare industry. If we do that, then whatever sycophant fills the shoes of Donald Trump in the 2032 presidential election, who tries to lay blame on our most vulnerable communities for a rigged system, it will ring hollow to the voters because as a party, we can point to what we accomplished in achieving health care for all and say this is what Democrats achieved for working people. This is how we deliver. Pretty good.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Very good.

[Jon Favreau]

It's not just policy where Kyros has managed to draw a sharp distinction. Here's a question she got in a local news interview a week ago about an ad she reposted from a super PAC supporting her.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I believe that the ad also suggested that centrist Democrats suck shit.

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

Is that your belief as well?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay,

[Jon Favreau]

Just hearing him, just hearing the interviewer say that was enjoyable. Because of the makeup of the district, Kyrus is almost certainly to win the general election and she has said she won't vote For Hakeem Jeffries for speaker if he takes corporate PAC money. In the primary for the states 8th district northeast of Denver, Progressive State Representative Manny Rootnell defeated a more moderate Democrat by 28 points. He will take on vulnerable Republican Gabe Evans, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. A big frontline race. And in the governor's race, the progressive but not DSA State Attorney General Phil Weiser beat out Senator Michael Bennett by about 12 points. Know you and Tommy talked about this on Pod Save America. Only friends. But what were your thoughts on Colorado and where it fits in with the New York results and what's to come?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So I think the Kiros race against the get fits very squarely in the narrative coming out of New York. We have a progressive insurgent candidate running against a long entrenched Democratic establishment figure. And like in New York, the Democrat is not a moderate per se, but is. I mean, Deget's a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus now, more moderate than Kiros and maybe more moderate than some of the voters of this district that Kamala Harris won by 56 points. And so this district, I know it's in Colorado and so we think of it differently. It is just about as Democratic as the three in New York.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, that's very important.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Caros won by more than 50 points in all of them. And it speaks to the very real anger that exists within the party towards the Democratic establishment, the status quo and the system. And we talk about what you and I in the New York, we talked about the New York races just last week, I think talked about the ways in which those anger manifests itself. And Kira's ran a great race. She won by double digits. And so that fits in that narrative. The other two races don't fit exactly in that narrative. What is true of the wiser Bennett race? I guess it is fair to say that Weiser is a progressive, but he's not that much more notably progressive than Bennett and he is not an insurgent. He is the two term Attorney General of the state who worked for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. What he did do was he did weaponize that anger against the establishment in one of the elements of it, which is Bennett's been in Washington for a couple decades now, or almost two decades. He was appointed in 2009, I believe to replace Ken Salazar, but he had attacked him for not fighting hard enough against Trump, being part of an establishment that let Trump win and then ran on all the things that Weiser had done as a very good Attorney general fighting back against Trump with lawsuits and other sorts of things. And so but it's not, he's not a member of the dsa. It's different. He also was someone with he as good of name ID and probably more like recent depth of knowledge relationship with the voters than Bennett because he's the attorney. He's a high profile attorney general in the state and Bennett's been in Washington. And then the Rootnell Shannon Bird race is interesting and kind of speaks to how progressive candidates I think will win in these frontline districts. If the running is. Rootnell did not run to the left.

[Jon Favreau]

No, he ran to the center.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He ran to the center. He even denounced his own former veganism.

[Jon Favreau]

But he did attack, unlike Talarico. He really was a vegan.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, he actually was a vegan. He was a PETA activist in one of the top farm districts in the country and has walked away from that.

[Jon Favreau]

He sort of walked away from Medicare for All also.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. And being a DSA member. But where he went after which is I think also interesting notice where he went after Bird was on ice because Bird had had a vote or two in the state legislature that suggested I

[Jon Favreau]

think it was like cooperation. It was like state cooperation.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

ICE cooperations. Yes. Wasn't like she was endorsing ICE or wearing like ICE T shirts. But that was a major issue in the race. And so these are all different. They do speak to the fact that you really don't want to be particularly in the wiser and Kiros race. You really don't want to be a longtime Democratic establishment figure like that. Like you are, you are vulnerable in a way in which you've never been before.

[Jon Favreau]

And that the voter anger at the establishment and specifically the fact that the establishment has not done enough to improve the lives of working people in this country or enough to beat back Donald Trump and Republicans is probably at least what the primaries are telling us. Probably even more powerful than anger at Democrats for being too centrist or too moderate.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, yes. I think the issue and that it's

[Jon Favreau]

race dependent, of course. But clearly in the Bennett race, in the rootinel race, in some of the other ones we're seeing like that is a factor that, that is a factor that is uniting all of this, all of this anti establishment fervor.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

The ideological thing is hard to parse because it's talked about one way by the pundits analyzing the race and I think it's viewed by voters in a different way. Yeah, like and I think a big issue in a lot of these races is obviously Israel and Gaza.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And it's played itself in different ways. It was. It was obviously a central part of Kiros's race and her political identity and her entry into politics was because of her views on Israel and Gaza. And it does represent the issue where there's the greatest distance between the party establishment and the voter, and particularly the Democratic primary voter and the most active Democratic primary voters. And I think that issue, it's ideological. It's also a litmus test of sorts, in the sense that it says, if you were unwilling to, in the minds of voters, call what is what you. What everyone is seeing with their eyes, genocide or to react to it in the right way, it says something about who you are and who you stand for. And so, like, is it. I think it's too easy to say that. It's like just people want to say it's all about being more progressive than being not progressive. And it's more complicated than that. It's also, I think, more complicated than being just like, who's a fighter? Like, you definitely wouldn't want to be a fighter. Like, not being a fighter is bad. Like, there aren't a lot of. There aren't a lot of people waving the white flag who are winning these primaries or in elections in general. But. But I always find myself struggling with this because the conversation is more complicated and dynamic than the terms in which we generally try to have the talk about it and sort of how votes do it.

[Jon Favreau]

Because when people say moderate, liberal, progressive, there's an umbrella over all the issues. And in reality, it's issue by issue for different voters and in different parts of the country and in different races. Right, because.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And these aren't moderates who are losing, with the exception of Goldman against Lander and Goldman, particularly. The issue where Goldman was most moderate was Israel. But Espiat. Not a moderate.

[Jon Favreau]

Not a moderate to get.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Not a moderate.

[Jon Favreau]

No, but been there a while.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. There's a generational element to this, too.

[Jon Favreau]

Coming attractions. You see, AOC endorsed Abdul El Said in Michigan. So there's the Michigan primary, where obviously the Senate race is the marquee race. I believe there's also like a House race there as well. Sri Thanadar is a Democratic congressman there who's facing a primary challenge. There's a few more. Do you have any. Do you know who the other one.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, there's Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Debbie Wasserman Schultz against Elijah Manley and apparently Luther Campbell, formerly of 2 Live Crew, which I did not realize until I read the New York Times story of it. Yes. Then she is not. She is running in a district that's not hers because it was redrawn. So it's a little bit more like the Al Green and Julie Johnson losses earlier this cycle.

[Jon Favreau]

Steven lynch in Massachusetts.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Steven lynch in Massachusetts.

[Jon Favreau]

Been there forever.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Ed Markey in Massachusetts, John Larson in Connecticut, Wesley Bell, who beat Cori Bush two years ago. This is not a generational one. This is more of a moderate, progressive one. But Cori Bush is now, and he won in large part because of Apex spending in that race. He was their candidate. And so Cori Bush is now running for her seat again. That's one in Missouri, which comes up in August, I believe.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So we got. We got a. We got. There is plenty of time for panic and overly hot takes and unnuanced takes about all of these things going forward.

[Jon Favreau]

Can't wait.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

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[Tommy Vietor]

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[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

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[Jon Favreau]

Did you see Steve Bannon's comment in Playbook this morning?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

AI? Steve Bannon would have said that. Like I could have told you exactly what that was going to be.

[Jon Favreau]

He basically said that Republicans ignore or mock the election of DSA candidates and progressive candidates at their peril. He said, quote, they campaign as anti establishment very smartly. They're not really even campaigning on Trump. He gets a mention. But they're very much like the Tea Party, like old Breitbart. They're going against the Democratic establishment. The reason we have a problem is not Trump. It's the people that should be stopping Trump are actually co opted by him. It's very sophisticated and it clearly resonates. What do you think about that?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I think, I mean, it's like an overly facile, self serving. I mean, basically what he's saying is, look how smart these people are. They're doing exactly what I did 10 years ago, 15 years ago.

[Jon Favreau]

And he's like a populist, you know.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I mean, sort of. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, no, I think, I think with Bannon, he's a populist in that. In all the wrong ways, in all the like xenophobic, terrible ways. But he's also a genuine populist on economic stuff. That he has like always pushed Trump to actually do populist economic shit. And then Trump has never done it in two terms.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. I think he genuinely believes that populism is the best politics for the Republican Party. That I agree with, which is why he has been so skeptical of Big Tech. I mean, he takes a lot of money from billionaires for a populist. But, but his argument was for a populist, for MAGA to be a populist working class movement. And he sees Democrats trying to do something similar and being willing to take on their own in order to do it. So it's, it's notable on the subject

[Jon Favreau]

of DSA momentum, I don't know if you saw Axios had a report on Wednesday that Kamala Harris has quietly been reaching out to Zoran Mamdani AOC and the leaders of the uncommitted movement, indicating that she's making plans potentially for a 2028 run and perhaps another ideological reinvention. What'd you think about that?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So we are getting more and more evidence that Kamala Harris is seriously thinking about running. If you'd asked me six Months ago, I would have bet a fair amount of money that she was not gonna run. But she keeps doing things that suggest she's at least seriously thinking about it. You and I have heard lots of rumors of her talking to all kinds of different people in the party. I think if she is running and is being smart about it, there is no path for her to the nomination that does not involve a massive pivot away from Biden's Israel and Gaza policy. And so having some conversations about how you would do that and how that would be received by people in the community, particularly when she clearly did not engage with that community enough to fully understand the power of the issue in 2024 is what you would be doing. Will that work? Will she be able to pull it off?

[Jon Favreau]

That was going to be my next question. How much, how much credibility do you think she gets?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I think it would depend on how she delivers it and how she can. If she were to do it, she cannot be. She cannot hedge her words. You cannot worry about Joe Biden's reaction to her words. You cannot worry about whether she's going to anger people in the national security world or the Biden national security team. She has to do what people around her were saying during the campaign was this legitimate, very real empathy for the Palestinians and anger at the Israelis that she was never willing to say out loud on the campaign and made a bunch of, I think, really tactical mistakes. Like, in the end, the idea that you couldn't give one slot at the convention to a speaker who would talk about. About what was going on in Gaza is a. Just seems so crazy now in hindsight. So it would have to be for her to pull it off. It would have to be just as. I mean, it has to be a level of authenticity and visceral emotion and legitimate anger at what happened before and that you cannot miss it. But you can't. You can't focus group it. You can't hem your words. You can't worry about Joe Biden.

[Jon Favreau]

I also think two other things. You have to own some responsibility around that 100%. Like, it has to be like. And not. Well, I was vice president enough, so I wasn't supposed to say anything like a genuine, like, I was wrong or I made a mistake or I came to this too late, like. Yep. And I think that it, like, she has to demonstrate that she actually cares about this and it's actually angered her and she's actually regretful for how it was handled and not that she's doing all the things she needs to do, to check the boxes to become the Democratic nominee that the Democratic electorate wants right now. Which is like always my concern about her. You know, it's like I want to, I want to know if Kamala Harris wants to run again, why she wants to run again, and why she wants to be president. And you can already tell like since she, since she lost, since the campaign, she's like trying out a little like, well, I'm sort of an outsider. I've always been an outsider. And it's like, yeah, there's anti establishment fervor right now. I'm gonna jump on that train. That looks good. And I'm not saying that this is exactly what she believes, cuz I don't know. But it could very easily come across like that. And my advice to her would be, what do you actually wanna run for president? What do you really believe? What's really angering you about the last four years? Talk about that. And if people, you know, if people believe that and people find that persuasive, then you'll be the nominee. And if not, they won't. But like you just don't, don't look at the Democratic electorate as a. I gotta get all the pieces together and this is what I have to say and do. And if I press all the right buttons, then suddenly I'll get the nomination. You know, I just, that's. And that goes for any candidate for sure. But, but I think she has a particular challenge there.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Can I tell you something? I think you're going to find perhaps very disturbing and potentially exciting. If we follow by the calendars of the previous cycles, one year from right about now will be the first Democratic primary debate.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, just got nauseous.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it usually happens in the summer of the year prior to the election.

[Jon Favreau]

It's going to be so bad. I'm just telling you. I feel like the, the opening skirmishes will be.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

With that attitude.

[Jon Favreau]

The opening skirmishes of the great democratic war of 2028 have already begun. And so far they haven't been going well. I'm still, I mean we have, we have just this, this is like the, the fucking tip of the iceberg. It is going to get. So it's going to make 2020 look like a fucking field day.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I don't, I'm not sure about that. I'm not sure. I'm not saying it's going to be great. I'm not saying it's going to be great. I think obviously there have to be points of difference in discussion and debate and those will be painful because a lot of times people agree on so much that you really are slicing the salami so thin to get to that difference. I mean, as it was with the Obama, other than the Iraq war on all the issues with Obama and Clinton, we agreed on a lot of stuff. And so policy stuff, approach to politics was very different. But on policy stuff you're fighting over the individual mandate was the main point of dispute. Point Hillary on that one. Yes. So we'll see. We want to talk about this now. You have a plane to catch poll. So we'll keep going.

[Jon Favreau]

We'll keep going. Speaking of the fall elections, we are now just four months out from these midterm elections. Forget about the primary debates and our America 250 gift. Dan was a full round of times. Siena Senate polls that were released Wednesday morning which show Democrats effectively tied but definitely not ahead in the effort to flip Republican held Senate seats. In Alaska they have Mary Peltola just two points behind Dan Sullivan. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is down three to John Husted. In Iowa, Josh Turek is two behind Ashley Hinson. In their polls of Maine and Texas released over the last few days, they have Graham Platner up two points on Susan Collins and James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied. The only clear leader is Democrat Roy Cooper in North Carolina. They have him up 7 on Michael Watley. There were also new Fox News polls out this week that have Platner down three to Susan Collins and Turek up four on Henson in Iowa. Any big picture thoughts before we get into some of the specific races?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

These polls are a somewhat painful reality check.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Of just how tough the Senate map is. When you dig into these, these, you know, as everyone knows, we got to win Maine, we have to win North Carolina, we have to win two of Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio. These are very Republican states. Trump won those four by at least double digits. When you look on the insides of the polls, majorities in all those states think the Democratic Party is too far to the left. This is a group of people we think about how much?

[Jon Favreau]

53%. 53% too far to the left. 8% too far to the right. 35% neither.

[Crooked Media Host (possibly Dan Pfeiffer or Jon Favreau)]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Not great. You like we talk about how angry people are at Trump. His approval rating in these states is all pretty good, like low 40s in most cases. In the they Republicans lead the generic ballot in all these states by at least six points. They want Republican control of Senate by at least six points.

[Jon Favreau]

Except in Maine.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Except in Maine. Let's put Maine aside in North Carolina.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, let's put both. Yeah, that's right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Which is.

[Jon Favreau]

We should talk about that because Roy Cooper's doing well. But the generic ballot in North Carolina is also D plus 6, I believe, which is crazy.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

North Carolina is performing like a pretty Democratic state in this environment. It's D +6. They want Democrats to control the Senate. It is. I mean, people are talking a lot about how great work Cooper's doing. He's doing great. He's a great candidate. But he's actually only overperforming the generic ballot by one point.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And a lot of these candidates in the more Republican states are overperforming the Democratic, the, the generic ballot by 3 to, 3 to 8 points in some cases. You know. And so the point is, we have a shot in all of these races. And that is something that you could not have said six to eight months ago, but it is very hard. And it's also, other than in Texas, Republicans have actually nominated fine candidates. Ashley Hinson, John Hewson are generic Republicans. And Dan Sullivan's like a, maybe a little bit worse than generic Republican, but basically a generic Republican. We have great candidates, but is it going to be enough?

[Jon Favreau]

So this is what I was getting at a little earlier is my take, my overall take on these, these polls. And again, New York Times polls aren't perfect, but they are as close to perfect as we have. You know, they were off again in 2024, but, like, again, the purpose of a poll is not to nail the exact result. I know that's. That might sound shocking, but it's true. It gets you within the ballpark. And in terms of within the ballpark, no one does it better than the New York Times, which is why we take these seriously and dig in a lot on them. So my take overall, if you set all the candidates aside, we have done a great job persuading people, even people in red states, that Donald Trump is doing a terrible job as president. I know you said like 43. It's 43%. That's not a great approval rating in red states. Like, I would have, you know, that's pretty bad. And I know now we're getting used to, because some of these national polls have them in, like, the high 30s. We're getting used to that. But, like, for any 43 is bad. It's enough to lose. Right. If he was running in those states, we have not done a good job persuading people that the Republicans in Congress are the primary reason that Trump has been able to make their lives worse. That's my larger takeaway. Because you would think that the Republican. I mean, and the generic ballot. Right. Like if you take the candidates out of it. Cause people wanna talk about, like, this candidate's more stronger or this one's weaker. And if you take all the candidates out of it and you just look at who do you want to control Congress? You asked that question to the voters, which they did. The generic ballot is just very positive for Republicans in most of these red states, even as Donald Trump's approval rating in those same states is well under 50%. And that's. Why do you think that is?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Because people don't like Democrats. Like, all these candidates are doing great. They are outperforming.

[Jon Favreau]

Except Platner.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, I want to. All the candidates in the four red states.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I'm going to put Roy Cooper Platner aside.

[Jon Favreau]

Okay, great. We're only talking about these for now. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And I'd actually put Texas aside in a little bit here, but in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, those are the Iowa. That's a good model. Those are. That's a good group for.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They are. These are very Republican states in Iowa and Ohio. The hardest part here is these, where Trump has lost ground is mostly with younger voters and Latino voters. And these are very white, very old states. They are whiter than the national average. They are older than national average. And so there's just less the voters who are leaving Trump and coming to our side, there's just fewer of them and it's a more static electric. Alaska is more confusing. Alaska is not actually a white state, but it obviously has a very low Latino and black population as a native population, which just is a little bit different. Texas is interesting because Texas is a majority minority state and has a huge Latino vote, which is why Talarico is tied in that race.

[Jon Favreau]

Though I was surprised in Texas that the generic ballot is still Republican plus 6 if most of the gains are younger voters and Latino voters, because Texas has plenty of both of those.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I mean, it's six in a state that Trump won by 13.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, okay, okay. I forgot that he won that much.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. In every one of these states, Trump won by at least 11. 11 points.

[Jon Favreau]

Right, right.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Jon Favreau]

Let's, let's stay on those three. Iowa, Alaska, Ohio. One thing on Alaska we should note is that Nate cone wrote like a separate thing on why the methodology and the Alaska sample might be a little weird and different. And we're not going to nerd out on that. But the upside is the Alaska results could be actually better than it appears here. Iowa and Ohio I think more fit the issue with it's just white voters everywhere. But I do think what's notable is we have all of our candidates in those states, like you said, are outrunning the generic ballot. So the Democrats are viewed, the Democratic candidates are viewed as less extreme than the national party and they're more liked than average. And the Republican candidates in those states though are also have a higher favorability rating than average. So I do think in those three states especially so it's Dan Sullivan, John Husted and Ashley Hinson who's also in Congress. She's not a senator, but she's a rep. I think like there's a lot of you, there's a lot of work to be done on pinning the last couple years of Donald Trump on those three incumbents who are in Washington. We are in an anti establishment, anti incumbent mood. Those people have been voting for Trump and voting for, in helping Trump 100% not stopping him. So it feels like there's just a lot of work to be done there. Is that. Would you agree?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I would. I would say that it's tricky because what are you moving like in doing that? Are you like the question that's interesting

[Jon Favreau]

you're trying to find in those, in those states. And according to this polls, there are a bunch of Trump disapprovers, don't like Donald Trump who are nonetheless inclined to vote for a Republican candidate for Senate. And I think those are the people that you. You want to get.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I agree with that. The thing that is in the qu. The generic ballot is interesting in this race, in these races. The question that's more interesting, which kind of lines up the generic ballot, but is who do you want to control the Senate?

[Jon Favreau]

Right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And Republicans have a big advantage on that. It's basically akin to the generic ballot. It's 11 in Alaska. They didn't ask a generic ballot question in Alaska because there's only one member of Congress. So they just asked about that race. And that's not, I think, immediately transferable to the political environment because it's a known quantity in Nick Begich there. But that is hard. They're going to make the race be about a vote for Mary Patola is a vote to make Chuck Schumer and a bunch of DSA people or whatever in charge of the Senate.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And so you need a 11. You need 11% of them to say no, we will. We'll take Mary Patel anyway. Like, that's hard. I think Ohio is. Ohio is indicative of the larger challenge here, which is Sherrod Brown has a plus 8 favorable rating in a Trump state that Trump won by 11. A majority of Ohioans do not think that Sherrod Brown is too far to the left. A Although a majority of Ohioans think the Democratic Party is too far left. If the goal is to not be a typical Democrat, Sherrod Brown has fucking nailed it.

[Jon Favreau]

Yep.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He is like, he has a relationship with the voters. They like him. They think he's different than the Democrats they hate.

[Jon Favreau]

And he hasn't moderated his views on anything, by the way. Like, he was just at our house doing a fundraiser a couple weeks ago and he sounds exactly the same as he has for the last several decades.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, now he's down 4.

[Tommy Vietor]

Great.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Thanks for telling everyone that. But, but what's interesting is if you compare the results of this poll to the exit poll of the Ohio senate race in 2024. He is doing exactly the same as he was in that race. Exactly. His percentage of the white non college vote, which is a majority of the basically half the vote in Ohio, is exactly the same. And he's doing no better than Kamala Harris did. Essentially nationally with that vote, he's gained 36%.

[Jon Favreau]

What do we do about that?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, this is why Ohio is such a hard fucking state. Now can he convince some, like, there are places where he can make gains. He can make gains with black voters in this. He can jack up black turnout. He can do better with younger. Like there are places to get there. But this is why he's down three. And this is why these states are so hard. Because even though he is well liked, he is not extreme people. He is not getting more votes than he did four years ago. Two years ago. That's the hard part about running Sherrod Brown. Two years later, you're gonna need some people who voted for Housted to either stay home or voted for Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown to either change their vote or stay home. And that's not super easy.

[Jon Favreau]

The difference is, and this is one of the reasons these polls sort of brought me back down to earth in a serious way is two years ago he was running in a presidential electorate, which is obviously going to be harder for a Democrat in a state like Ohio. I guess I assumed that a midterm electorate would be better for Democrats than it is in these polls. And I always thought that Sherrod's chance, and I still do that Sherrod's chance to win this time versus last time is the fact that he's just going to be running in a different electorate where there's fewer non college educated white voters who turn out to vote in the midterm than there are in a presidential election.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, the problem is Ohio is an older, white, non college turnout state and those people voted a higher rate. And as Nate Cohn pointed out in his analysis of the polls, a lot of the voters who have left Trump don't vote in midterms.

[Jon Favreau]

Right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And, and that is going to be more true in a state like Ohio, which is just a, like, that's interesting. Ohio is just this state that. Because this seems crazy. People who've only been watching politics for the last couple of presidential elections, but prior to that, it was the election, the state that decided the presidency in basically every election. And it has been registered and organized within an inch of Its life. And one reason why it was felt hard for Obama was we always felt like we could do best in states that had large unregistered populations of potential Democrats. North Carolina, Florida, that was dream about Texas over the years. And Ohio just had. There were no new votes to get. Young people were leaving. And so it's a hard, it's, it's a hard state. Can he still win it? Absolutely, he can. But I think it just speaks to how, like why this is hard. It's doable. It's doable in all these states, but these are horror states.

[Jon Favreau]

And by the way, it's why North Carolina and Texas are states that not just this cycle, but many cycles into the future. Democrats just have to win at some point because you don't run into the same older white voters and no new voters issue in those states because so many people have been moving to them over the last decade. They're becoming more diverse, they're becoming younger. And so on paper they should be states that Democrats have a better chance in than places like Ohio and Iowa. Long term. Long term. I am interested in why the generic ballot in North Carolina is so good.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, it is. Think about it this way. It's a state that Trump won by two points, I think.

[Range Rover Sport Advertiser / Guest Voice]

I think.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Two points.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, it was very close.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

He barely only won it by less than a point in 2020. And so if you think the generic ballot is plus 7 or 8 nationally, then it kind of gets you to a plus 6.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, yeah. And so there's, and that's Roy Cooper. There is just, you know, he's just trucking through and not really getting any national attention and the race is kind of quiet and it's benefiting him.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's.

[Jon Favreau]

It's probably a state where getting attention is a bad thing.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, he doesn't need attention because he has high name ID and voters like him.

[Jon Favreau]

Right, right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So he does not need to be doing TikTok dances.

[Jon Favreau]

And then before we get to Maine, because Texas is sort of the opposite issue, which is, I do think in Texas, obviously, James Hellrico is a strong candidate. We've talked about that a lot. And there's been a shift in the ballot, the generic ballot in Texas. But I think it's fair to say that Ken Paxton as the candidate and his, his problems and issues are hurting him in these polls.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, people, it's a little bit like Maine.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, that's what I said. It's the opposite.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's absolutely hurting. What is interesting is I find this impossible to believe. And it may be the factoid that ends linear political television advertising forever, which is the Texas primary was the most expensive primary in history. Ungodly amounts of money were spent by John Cornyn and Cornyn Super PACs. Most of that money was spent by a. Quite the corn inside telling people about what a corrupt dickhead Ken Paxton is. And only 38% of voters. Dude, that was hearing a lot about it.

[Jon Favreau]

And yet when you go to Maine, most voters have heard about Graham platner stuff.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Nearly nine in 10 voters have heard about grand Platner stuff.

[Jon Favreau]

Now, part of this is Maine is a smaller state, much smaller state. And I think it's. Word travels fast there. And people know and, and I think that, you know, there's opportunities there as well for Platner. But I think it does say something about the sort of the gap between when there's a right wing boogeyman and a left wing boogeyman.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, but it is, it's. The thing is, is that there was the entire Republican Party infrastructure was spending hundreds of millions of dollars to tell people this about Ken Paxton, and people still haven't heard it.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So maybe they were doing it in the wrong way.

[Jon Favreau]

I think you're right. I think it's TV stuff. It's like. And online. Like we weren't talking about all of Ken Paxton's problems until it was, you know, time to vote. It just didn't, it didn't break through in the last year the way that Graham Platner stuff broke through. Let's talk about Maine. So Democratic Party machinery is getting behind Platner, grudgingly or otherwise. The Senate focused PAC majority forward. Is that what their first attack ad on Susan Collins? Let's take a look and then we'll talk about the polling there. 30 years living the Washington D.C. lifestyle changes. People getting rich from insider trading should be illegal. But Susan Collins doesn't think so. Susan Collins is trying to keep it

[Tommy Vietor]

so senators can get rich playing the stock market.

[Jon Favreau]

They're making millions of dollars while we

[Dan Pfeiffer]

can't even afford groceries and gas.

[Jon Favreau]

We need to tell Susan Collins to

[Dan Pfeiffer]

stop the Congressional stock trading.

[Jon Favreau]

Okay, what do you think of that ad? What do you think of that message? And then your take on the polling in Maine.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I want you to do an Oscar style music. Play me off the stage if you have to go catch a flight. Because I honestly could talk about, honestly, all these polls for five straight hours. I could do a podcast on every one of the polls.

[Jon Favreau]

I think I'm good. It is about an hour to lax. I should make it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay.

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

All right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Just don't let me miss your flight because I will never hear the end of it from your wife. So.

[Jon Favreau]

And she will know now?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. Yes, she will know. I don't think she listens to this podcast.

[Jon Favreau]

That's true. What am I talking about?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

My wife might tell her that's.

[Jon Favreau]

That is true.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So the logic of that ad, because it's always like, you look at this ad, like, this ad sucks, or the message strategy of this ad is bad, then you remember there are very smart people with a ton of data that you and I don't have who make these decisions. So I imagine the strategy of this ad is to say you have a lot of people who voted for Susan Collins in 2020 and in previous elections, like, Susan Collins overperformed. She won by nine when Biden was winning Maine by almost nine. So like a 17, 18 point over performance into this is a stunning stat. In 2008, she won by 23 points when Obama was winning Maine by 17.

[Jon Favreau]

Wow.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

She overperformed by 40 points.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, my God.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So you get a lot of people who voted for Susan Collins. So one way to do that is that you want to create a permission structure to them to say, I did this thing before she's changed. So that's the argument. But if you look at the New York Times poll and it's one poll and it's a public poll, that seems like a bad strategy, because in this poll, two thirds of voters think that Susan Collins has good character and morals. So it seems hard you're going to convince. Even a lot of people are voting for Grant Platner, think Susan Collins is a good person. And so it seems hard that you're going to convince them all of a sudden that she is corrupt. And it seems to me your better argument is you look at the fact that by a margin of, I think, 12 points, I'm just off top of my head. Democrats. People in Maine want the Democrats to control the Senate. And so there should never be an ad run that is not Susan Collins standing in the Oval Office holding that MAGA hat.

[Jon Favreau]

That's probably the more potent argument. Right? Yeah. MAGA hat also. I think that's why. And you see, Platner was doing this in his primary night speech and elsewhere, the Brett Kavanaugh vote feels like a potent attack on her because it is a place where she was basically, I'm doing what Trump wants me to do, and it's gonna be fine. And then it's not fine. And that's probably an easier argument than, oh, this person that you think has brought home federal money to the state and has good character is actually a crook.

[Donald Trump (voice or impersonation)]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

In the poll, 57% of independents in a majority of all Mainers, which I believe is the appropriate term, think that Susan Collins would be too supportive of Donald Trump.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Like that. That is like there is a. There is a world for the Platinum campaign that existed a year ago with none of these revelations. I think it's happened where it's like we are. We are running a campaign to change American politics, reshape the coalitions. This poll suggested those days are over. Although there are some places where Planner is doing better than Sarah Gideon did, which is why he's winning and she lost by nine points.

[Jon Favreau]

And also why comparing this poll to the 2020 polls of where Sarah Gideon was at this point is not a great idea since those polls were all wrong.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. That drives me insane. Even Nate Cohen would say that poll was very, very wrong. The best thing you compare it to is the 2020 exit polls because they actually exit pulled this race in 2020. And Graham Plat, if you look at that, Graham Platner is doing exactly one point better than Sarah Gideon did with white working class voters, which in Maine, where 98% of the voters are white, I believe is just working class voters. And basically the same number that Kamala Harris did in 2024 with White. With working class white voters, according to Catalyst data. Where he is doing better, which is why he is winning and Sarah Gideon was losing by a lot, is he's doing much better with young voters and he's doing better with men.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

The reason why he's not up by more is pretty simple. Susan Collins is getting 10% of Kamala Harris voters, although Platner, to his credit,

[Jon Favreau]

is getting 4% older white women. Which is exactly what Ron Brownstein has been saying and said on this pod that his biggest concern is like, I

[Dan Pfeiffer]

know we all want it. Like, I will stipulate that Graham Platner is being weighed down in some way, shape or form by the things that have come out like that. That is definitely true. He is underperforming. All these other Democrats are over performing the generic ballot. He's underperforming it by eight points, I think.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Because it's 11. Right?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's 11. So it's nine points. It's nine. Underperforming nine points. That is significant. Now, the idea that we were going to beat Susan Collins by 10 points or even five points, I think probably was fanciful because there was definitely some grand plan underperformance. There is no question about. I am not disputing it. There is definitely Susan Collins over performance too.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, yeah. And also because you would like his. His approval is 45, 50, which isn't great, but is not. Not horrible. Right. You can win at 45% approval, which is just look at Donald Trump and hers is 48, 51. Hers was much. Yeah, I was less surprised, actually. I was surprised by both of them. I thought that his favorability might be worse after everything and then I thought hers would. But I thought hers would be worse. 48:51. This seems quite good if you're an incumbent in an anti incumbent wave and you've been there forever and you're as old as Susan Collins. Like that. That, that surprised me.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

There is this misreading of the polls where like they ask people not to compare Platner and Collins on characters and morals. They just ask them if having good characters or good morals describe them. So Susan Collins has these incredible numbers on, you know, in the 60s on character and morals. And Platner seems like his numbers are much lower, but they're still in the mid-40s.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So he's getting 48% of the vote. So there's like 4% of people who are voting for, who don't think Platner necessarily has great character morals and are voting for him anyway. There are 18% of people in some cases who think that Susan Collins is a good person are voting against her anyway.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. I will also say that both Susan Collins and Graham Platner are more popular in this poll than Janet Mills.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. This is the other takeaway. Like, is it possible that like a John Baldacci or a Hannah Pingree, if they had run as a generic Democrat, would be doing better than Graham Platner?

[Jon Favreau]

Probably.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Maybe. Maybe even probably. Maybe even probably.

[Jon Favreau]

They chose not to.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They chose not to in some cases. Were some of these candidates were encouraged not to by Chuck Schumer, according to some reports. But the idea that this poll has a fair amount of evidence that Janet Mills would be doing worse than Graham Platner, certainly not better than Graham Platner. And the bigger thing is not just her favorability rating because that's somewhat dragged down by Platner, people who don't like her. The bigger issue is that more than 8 in 10 Maine voters think the Maine economy is bad.

[Jon Favreau]

I know those numbers.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And when the economy is the number one issue in the election, she actually would be someone who was being like it would be as much a referendum on her as opposed to referendum on the Trump economy. And so that would be a very, very tough order.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. No, I think, look, clearly all of the revelations about Platner have hurt him and he has a lot of work to do. I don't think anything in this poll shows that, like, what's happened is fatal. No, I'm very concerned if other revelations come out.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, yes, yes, yes, for sure.

[Jon Favreau]

I do think if these Cuz then some people will argue, well, the Republicans haven't even spent all their money yet making sure that everyone knows about everything that's come out already on that. I would say, like most of the voters in this poll, what 80% have heard about his problems and his issues. So like, I don't know that there's much more education to do on that front. I think what their hope has to be is that there's more stuff coming out on the Republican side that they can use.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

The thing that I worry more than the character and stuff and the moral stuff is that Platner is seen as more extreme than Susan Collins. And that's where I think that's the ads I think would be more concerning Susan Collins very much. People do not think she's extremely right.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. And it's going to be. That's not pushing on an open door on that. It is. It's much easier to say like, oh, well, she's just, just look at the record. She goes along with Trump and you don't like Trump. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Just a vote for Susan Collins is a vote for Donald Trump. Senate Collins is a vote to confirm another Trump Supreme Court Justice. A vote for Susan Collins is Trump. Trump just, it's like, it's not that complicated. It should just be everything. And like, do not overthink this, people.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Like you need a bunch of people who want the Democrats control the Senate to vote for Graham Platner. If you do that, you will win.

[Jon Favreau]

Yep. All right, that's our show for today, everyone. Have a happy 4th and a great holiday weekend. Tommy and Lovett will be back with a new show on Tuesday and I'll be back a week from Tuesday. Bye, everyone.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Bye, everyone. Have a great fourth pod.

[Jon Favreau]

Save America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and Farah Safari with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Cohn and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt de Groat, Ben Hethcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Carol Pelliver Aviv, David Toles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young and Naomi Singel. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.