Trump's Secret Plan for a 3rd Term

Summary

Pod Save America — "Trump’s Secret Plan for a 3rd Term"

Date: October 28, 2025
Hosts: Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor
Featured Guest: Mark Elias (founder of Democracy Docket, prominent Democratic elections attorney)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into recent claims by Steve Bannon that Donald Trump has a plan to serve a third term as president—a clear violation of the 22nd Amendment. The hosts analyze whether such rhetoric should be taken seriously, what risks it presents to democracy, and how to respond without feeding the flames of Trumpian spectacle. They address ongoing Republican efforts to undermine confidence in upcoming elections, escalating threats to voting rights, and Trump’s attempts to delegitimize democratic institutions. The episode also covers the 2025 elections, the government shutdown, threats to New York City if Zoran Mamdani wins the mayoralty, and broader fears of rising authoritarianism.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s “Third Term” Chatter & Authoritarian Undercurrents

• Steve Bannon’s Provocations: Bannon claimed there’s a “plan” for a Trump third term, calling Trump the “instrument of divine will.” (03:48)
• Trump’s Response: Trump, when asked, didn’t rule it out, vainly referencing his high poll numbers and attacking opponents with trademark insults. (04:01)
• How Should This Be Handled?
  • Lovett: Seriousness is warranted, but don’t grant credibility:
    “Will he do it? Will he try? Yes. Will he succeed? No. ... There’s no secret part of the Constitution we’re not aware of with ‘king mode’ in it.” (05:37)
  • Vietor: The dangers are real, but Bannon/Trump are “trolling” as much as actually plotting. Worth monitoring, but don’t catastrophize.
  • Polling Data:
    • 91% of Democrats and 77% of independents oppose Trump running again. (07:31)
    • Even among Republicans, a majority supports two-term limits.
  • On GOP Cowardice:
    Lovett: “Look at all these pathetic Republicans around him... standing there while Trump is promising some kind of, like, dictatorship.” (10:07)
  • On the Lame Duck Issue (Favreau):
    “The most benign explanation is...to avoid appearing like a lame duck. ... Of course, Trump doesn’t have to wait until 2028 to screw with our elections.” (11:19)

2. Preemptive Election Delegitimization & the DOJ’s Role

• Trump’s New Claims: He’s calling the upcoming Prop 50 election in California “rigged,” urging the DOJ to monitor and seed doubt. (11:53)
• Use of DOJ “Monitors”:
  • Lovett (w/ Elias’s analysis): These moves are a pretext to challenge results and delegitimize future contests—particularly concerning for 2026.
    “This is a illegitimate use of election monitoring as a pretext for calling elections false...” (14:37)
  • DOJ monitors sent only to Democratic strongholds, especially in diverse communities.
• Contrast with Voting Reality: Lovett shares the “wholesome and democratic” reality of voting in CA, highlighting how Trumpists are detached from actual process. (13:56)
• Fear of Escalation: This tactic is about creating permission structures for escalated interference and narrative-building ahead of bigger races.

3. Congressional Shenanigans & The Erosion of Norms

• Refusal to Seat Elected Democrats: Speaker Mike Johnson blocks Adelita Grijalva from being sworn into the House, potentially previewing future norm-breaking. (17:08)
  • Legal Gray Area:
    “The Constitution is not self-executing...not unconstitutional not to swear in, just a huge breach of norms.” (18:01 - Vietor)
  • Multiplicity of Dangers: Johnson could duplicate this in 2026 if midterms are close, simply refusing to seat Democratic winners under thin pretexts. (19:21)
  • Built-in Checks: There are “natural systems defenses”—eventually, even GOP members will want to preserve legitimacy for their own seats. (21:36)
• Historical Context: House is “ultimate judge” of its own elections; such reversals are rare but not unprecedented.

4. Trump’s DOJ & Retaliation Fantasies

• Calls to Prosecute Opponents: Trump wants his DOJ to go after Jack Smith, Merrick Garland, former FBI officials over the “Arctic Frost” investigation into phone data (23:02)
  • Reality Check: It was about tolling data, not wiretaps. Demonizing normal investigative steps, Trump seeks to criminalize those who held him accountable.
  • Lovett: “These guys are acting as if the idea that they would ever be part of a scheme to overturn the election is so ridiculous ... A fucking disgrace.” (24:02)
• Judicial Norms: Ironically, Garland’s DOJ blocked effort to oust Judge Eileen Cannon, despite claims that he’s engaged in political witch hunts. (25:22)

5. Focus on the 2025 New York Mayoral Election & the AOC/Bernie Left

• Trump’s Threats to NYC:
  • Threatens to cut off federal funding and even to try to strip Zoran Mamdani of citizenship if he wins. (28:12)
  • Republican House members talk openly about denaturalization of political opposition—an overtly authoritarian escalation.
• Massive Progressive Rally:
  • Bernie, AOC, and Gov. Hochul rally with Mamdani; 13,000+ attendees signal rising left energy. (29:13)
• Mamdani’s Political Savvy:
  • “He is just, like, effortlessly charming.” (30:42 - Vietor)
  • Straddles idealism and pragmatic politics, adapting positions, charming power brokers even as he remains authentic. (31:19 - Lovett)
• Republican Strategy:
  • Making Mamdani the face of the national Democratic Party, relying on Islamophobic and xenophobic attacks.
  • On denaturalization: Favreau: “If [Trump] tries to deport a leader of the opposition...then I think every single American should take to the streets.” (35:18)

6. The Ongoing Government Shutdown

• Shutdown Impact:
  • Looming pain for 40M on SNAP, Head Start, ACA premiums spiking up to 30%+, airport dangers, and more. (40:00)
  • Trump refuses to spend contingency funds for social welfare, making things worse on purpose.
• Republican Messaging:
  • Mike Johnson claims House is “doing the most meaningful work of their career” while on recess—pure spin. (41:21)
• Democratic Calculus:
  • Consensus to stand strong, as public polling supports Democrats’ stance against GOP’s moves.
• Private Army?
  • MAGA billionaire Timothy Mellon donates $130M so the military can make payroll—potentially illegal and deeply troubling as perverse privatization of state power. (48:20)
  • Favreau: “I don’t like a privately funded army... under the control of the President and maybe that guy.” (49:49)

7. Inflation & Trump’s Tariff Tantrums

• Recent Tariffs:
  • Trump raises tariffs against Canada after an ad used a 1987 Reagan speech. This move directly increases costs for US consumers and farmers. (52:05)
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, a hedge fund slumlord, laughably claims kinship with soybean farmers while personally profiting from related land. (53:04)
• Populist Disconnect:
  • Despite harsh Trump policies hurting farmers and a localized depression in Iowa, his base’s support remains unmoved. (59:41)

8. The Futility—and Necessity—of Democratic Engagement

• Despite national polls showing races remain closely divided, even after catastrophic Republican policies, the hosts emphasize the critical need for sustained organizing, activism, and legal vigilance.

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Mark Elias Interview: Protecting Democracy Against the MAGA Playbook

[65:16 – 92:23]

Key Takeaways:

• Take Trump’s Threats Both “Literally and Seriously”
  “He wants a third term. I fully expect he is going to try to get a third term. ... There’s no constitutional loophole here ... but that won’t stop Donald Trump...” (65:47 - Elias)
• Most Likely Endgame: January 6th Redux
  MAGA isn’t planning subtle legal circumvention; they’re more prone to “bulldozing” norms, inciting unrest, and counting on a loyal bureaucracy at DOJ, ICE, and possibly the military to interfere in or refuse to certify results. (68:36)
• Delegitimization by Narrative & Vigilantism
  • The use of DOJ “election monitors” under the guise of voting-rights enforcement is a pretext for seeding claims of fraud and justifying intervention in future (2026, 2028) elections (71:18)
  • Expect mass voter challenges and direct intimidation (i.e., people in body armor staking out ballot dropboxes)
• Weak Norms, Strong Activism
  • When Republicans make moves in public, they often back down if met with substantial, visible opposition (the Wayne County, MI Board exemplified this after 2020). (82:03)
  • “They can only steal elections in quiet... but if people are paying attention, by and large they wind up doing the thing that is right.” (84:47)
• Practical Steps for Listeners
  • “The single most important thing that anyone can do...is speak up.” Have the hard conversations, don’t sit out political discussions. (88:30)
  • If you can, volunteer or donate to campaigns, ballot initiatives, or civic organizations, or become a poll worker.
  • Sunshine, oversight, and activism can prevent subversion at crucial points.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Lovett (on the “third term”):

  "Will he do it? Will he try? Yes. Will he succeed? No. ... There’s no secret part of the Constitution we’re not aware of with ‘king mode’ in it." (05:37)

• Elias (on Trump’s intentions):

  "Take him both literally and seriously. ... There’s no legal way for him to seek a third term. But that won’t stop Donald Trump from trying to do so anyway." (65:47)

• Favreau (on the denaturalization threat):

  "If Donald Trump and the ruling party decide that they’re gonna try to deport a leader of the opposition ... then I think every single American should take to the streets." (35:18)

• Lovett (on voting rights):

  "If that is fragile, then citizenship itself is fragile. It’s incredibly dangerous. ... Not just for politics—it’s a principle." (36:23)

• Elias (on actions listeners can take):

  “Cowards are the ones who are trying to suppress the vote and they do not withstand a little sunshine.” (91:07)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Trump 3rd Term/Bannon Comments — 03:48–11:52
• DOJ, Prop 50, Election Monitoring — 11:53–15:54
• Congressional Norms/Election Seating — 17:08–21:15
• DOJ/Operation Arctic Frost — 23:02–26:03
• Mamdani, AOC, NYC Mayoral Politics — 28:12–39:34
• Government Shutdown & Republican Leverage — 40:00–46:19
• Private Donors Funding Government Functions — 48:20–52:05
• Tariffs, Inflation, Soybean “Slumlords” — 52:37–55:58
• Stubborn Polls, Democratic Challenges — 57:14–60:12
• Mark Elias Interview (Election Subversion Tactics & Defenses) — 65:16–92:23

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Episode Tone & Style

The conversation blends urgency, irreverence, and dark humor. Hosts highlight the absurdity of MAGA tactics but remain soberingly clear-eyed about the stakes for democracy and citizen responsibility.

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Summary for Listeners

This episode arms listeners with clear information about the legally and normatively impossible MAGA fantasy of Trump’s third term, exposes the real authoritarian maneuvers Republican leaders are preparing, and rallies listeners to become visible, vocal participants in defending democracy. Whether you’re worried about mass intimidation at the ballot box, norm-busting in Congress, or creeping executive overreach, the take-home message is clear: vigilance, activism, and solidarity are the best antidotes to Trumpist chaos.

“The most important thing everyone can do is speak up and participate. Sunshine and activism are stronger than their tactics—if we choose to act.” — Mark Elias (88:30)

Transcript

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Lovett]

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Mark Elias]

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Lovett]

I'm Jon Levitt.

[Jon Favreau]

Tom on today's show, we'll talk about Donald Trump's latest musings about doing away with the Constitution to become president for life, why he's already calling next week's elections rigged, and what the resistance looks like right now as AOC and Bernie rally with Zoran Mamdani. With a week to go before the 2025 elections, we'll also get to the latest on the shutdown and the various scary deadlines the White House is hoping will force Democrats to cave. Then Lovett talks with Democratic elections attorney and democracy docket founder Mark Elias about the third term chatter from Trump and the biggest threats to this year's elections and the midterms. So let's start there. Steve Bannon, our good friend, kicked up the Trump 2028 lunacy in a recent interview with the Economist where he said that, quote, there's a plan for Trump to serve a third term. Specifically, quote, trump is going to be president in 28, and people ought to just get accommodated with that because Trump is, quote, an instrument of divine will, end quote.

[Jon Lovett]

Like how you don't like sushi when you first try it.

[Jon Favreau]

You know, Trump got asked about that on Air Force One on Monday morning as he traveled to Japan as he spoke to reporters with Marco Rubio at his side. Let's take a listen.

[Mark Elias]

I would. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever. It's very terrible. Well, we have great people. We have J.D. obviously, the Vice president is great. I think Marco's great. I think. I'm not sure if anybody would run against us. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that they have Jasmine Crockett, a low IQ person. They have AOC's low IQ. You give her an IQ test, have her pass, like the exams that I decided to take. The first couple of questions are easy. A tiger, an elephant, a giraffe, you know, they couldn't come close to answering any of those questions.

[Tommy Vietor]

They cut the part where we go, Marco Daikok. Marco Daiko.

[Jon Favreau]

If you're watching this, Marco is going between, like, he's sort of smiling Then he's looking down. Then he's looking a little like, what?

[Tommy Vietor]

I just want to invade Venezuela. Boston making fun of me.

[Jon Favreau]

AOC did tweet this clip out by saying, hi, Mr. President. Do they have you draw a clock? So we'll get to AOC in a minute. We'll leave the legal analysis to Mark Elias.

[Tommy Vietor]

And love it.

[Jon Favreau]

And love it.

[Jon Lovett]

They did take an lsat.

[Jon Favreau]

LSAT champion. Right? I do want to start with a question about how you guys think all of us democracy lovers should be handling the fact that Trump and MAGA world just keep talking about a third term. There is a will he or won't he debate with no definitive answer for now. But what are we supposed to do with the information that Trump might try to serve a third term? Or at least keeps telling us that he might?

[Jon Lovett]

So I talked about this with Marco Elias, and I talked about the legal questions, which I think are really worth listening to, but also this sort of question for us, which is like, how do we take it seriously without lending it more credibility than it deserves? And I think, to answer your question, will he do it? Will he try? Yes. Will he succeed? No. Right. Like, we have to be unequivocal in saying that Donald Trump will not be the President of the United States in January of 2029. That is not possible. That is not in cards. He may try, he may think he should be, but he won't be. And as Mark points out, as a lot of people have pointed out, there's no secret part of the Constitution we're not aware of with that has, like, king mode in it. Right. Like, there's no. There's no, like, information that Steve Bannon is sitting on that were we to learn, it would terrify us to our very core. Like, we shouldn't imbue them with more power or, like, kind of magic sense of the American spirit than they actually have. So, like, we have to, like, treat it really seriously. He is going to try, but we have to not act as if he's already succeeding by being so afraid and terrified that he'll succeed.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's a bit of a conundrum, because I think they're trying to troll us. But also it's something that Bannon and Trump would seriously like to do. And so I struggle with that. I mean, I think Bannon's whole life is about trolling. And the White House is full of trolls who do things like put Trump 2028 hats on the Oval Office desk. When Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are in there. You see that little anecdote and then.

[Jon Favreau]

Just tweet out pictures of it. Whether they're pictures are AI or not.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And like, that's it. Like, also, Trump, we know on January 6th, we all remember that, and he said he wants to stay in charge. Also, building a $300 million ballroom, it's not necessarily the behavior of someone who's ready to leave.

[Jon Lovett]

Not a renter's move.

[Tommy Vietor]

Not a renter's move. But I agree with you, Lovett. I mean, I do think, like, okay, so what do you do with that information? You do the same thing you would otherwise do. Like, we win the midterms, we drive down as favorables, we fight all the things we're going to fight. And we also remember, like you just.

[Jon Lovett]

Said, it's not popular.

[Tommy Vietor]

There's some polling on this. Back in August, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think Trump will run again because we like to catastrophize. But it's not popular broadly. I mean, 91% of Democrats, 77% of independents said that Trump should not try to run again.

[Jon Favreau]

When asked what those 9% of Democrats.

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't know what they're doing. Maybe they think he'll lose.

[Jon Favreau]

You have a Republican number there.

[Tommy Vietor]

There is a question about whether presidents should only be able to serve two terms. 52% of Republicans agreed. So it's an uphill battle for Mr. Trump to win a third term. Not saying he can't do it.

[Jon Favreau]

I honestly, I think we cannot predict even whether he'll try or not. And we can't predict whether it'll work or not because, like, who knows what might happen? We couldn't have predicted anything in the last 10 years. But I actually just don't think you have to predict either or even wonder about either. I think the three choices are you either ignore it. You say that we shouldn't tear up the Constitution to install Donald Trump as a dictator.

[Tommy Vietor]

I like that choice.

[Jon Favreau]

You know, maybe we just campaign against it, start moving public opinion against it. So keep. Get those numbers up that Tommy was talking about. Or we trolled them right back by saying, Obama will see him on the campaign trail, we'll see him right there. Like, we just. I mean, if you want to read tea leaves about. Because, like, you'd say, okay, the Supreme Court's never gonna allow that, which I think there's good evidence for. Amy Coney Barrett, on her book tour, was asked about it twice. The first time, she was like, well, yeah, that's what the 22nd Amendment says, and then people still didn't. Were like, she wasn't cut and dry or whatever else. And then she was asked again by Nora o' Donnell in her book, she writes that the Constitution, quote, leaves no room for second guessing when it comes to term limits. So she was, and then she was like, yes, that's what I said. That's what I wrote in the book. So she's pretty clear, you can imagine that Roberts is in the same place as her. Cause she, you know, and so it's like, but could he defy the Supreme Court? Could he take over the. Who the fuck knows?

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I think, but that's why it's like, do I think that, like my saying Donald Trump will not be president in 2029, might there be egg on my face? What a bad day that will be when I feel like I'm embarrassed by this moment. Like we should be, I think definitive in part, because either this will continue to be America or it won't be. And if Donald Trump is president after his term, this isn't America anymore. It's a completely different place. And I don't understand that place. And that's where I'll live and I'll come to learn about it.

[Jon Favreau]

But I like that, see that to like the most honest answer.

[Jon Lovett]

But, so, so I, but, but like, but, but I believe this is still America and so I believe it will not happen. I don't know what the path is that I don't know how hard Donald Trump will try. I don't know what other Republicans will do. But the part of the reason I think you need to say that is say like, well, why is Donald Trump doing that? I think it's partly because he wants to part. It's because he's trolling us. Partly because he doesn't want to be a lame duck.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

And he doesn't want to be a guy that has less power than he does. But I think it, that it tells us something not just about him, it tells us something about the Republicans all around him. Donald Trump doesn't want to be a lame duck because so much of his power comes from the fact that he is terrifying to people who criticize him, to his fellow Republicans who don't want to get on his bad side. And because so much of his power has been kind of people afraid to defy him in advance and giving him powers he doesn't have. And look at all these pathetic Republicans around him, like Marco Rubio claims to be a great defender of democracy standing there while Donald Trump is Promising some kind of, like, dictatorship, whether by going around the Constitution or by putting his hands through Marco's sleeves and operating the buttons, like, through his coat jacket. And he's just fucking standing there. These Republicans are embarrassing. They're afraid to stand up to him and they're afraid of what the world looks like when Donald Trump is gone, because all they do now is focus on his needs and his interests. They have no vision, no platform, no idea of what they stand for once he's gone.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, well, it's also going to be. We're going to find out soon enough because a year from now, once the midterms are over, J.D. marco, they're all going to have to make a decision and start running.

[Tommy Vietor]

That'll be really fun to watch. I know he's just, like, paralyzing them. They're scared to go to Iowa. They're scared to fly over Iowa, Des Moines.

[Jon Favreau]

But it's like, it's like, gonna have to happen at some point. I do think that the lame duck thing is the most benign explanation for why Trump might continue to say this. Like, say he's not gonna try right then. The reason he's doing this is to avoid appearing like a lame duck. It's the reason why people who seem like they have no chance of running for president at all or might not run for president, continue to let it. Let people think that they might run for president so that their interviews get a little more attention. Same kind of idea. Of course, Trump doesn't have to wait till 2028 to screw with our elections. We got a few before then that he could really fuck up.

[Tommy Vietor]

Exciting.

[Jon Favreau]

Including the 2025 elections. One week from today, Trump is already trying to frame an expected loss on Prop 50 here in California. That's the redistricting ballot initiative as illegitimate. On Sunday afternoon, he wrote a post about how the stealing of the 2020 election was a much bigger deal than the NBA betting scandal. And he urged the Justice Department, which now takes orders directly from Trump, to keep investigating 2020. If not, he wrote, it will happen again, including the upcoming midterms. No mail in or early voting. Yes to voter id. Watch how totally dishonest the California prop vote is. Millions of ballots being shipped. Get smart Republicans before it is too late. This came just days after DOJ announced that it would deploy election monitors to polling places in California and New Jersey next week. Lovett, I know you talked to Mark about this, but how common or uncommon is this? And what specifically should we be worried about? Just a couple DOJ Officials just watching the ballot box. I don't know what's going on.

[Jon Lovett]

So I talked to Mark about this, and I think the way in which this is most concerning is this is a pretext for 2026. That is the fear, like, Donald Trump will not be able to undo the results of Prop 50. He can make trouble in one county in New Jersey, and as Mark points out, he's not doing this in Virginia, where there's another statewide election because there's a Republican governor. So this is a lot about pretext for what they will say after and what they will try. Try to do in future elections. I also just want to say, like, I voted in Prop 50 over the weekend. I dropped my ballot off at.

[Jon Favreau]

Thank you for your vote.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Who'd you vote for?

[Jon Lovett]

I voted yes for putting a knife in that fucking independent commission.

[Tommy Vietor]

You're an Arnold guy.

[Jon Favreau]

Opposite.

[Jon Lovett]

But I went to the Presbyterian Church in Koreatown to drop off my ballot, and it's the most.

[Jon Favreau]

Did you light on fire when you walked in?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, Takeaway Mo.

[Jon Lovett]

I was like, this is all fake. You sweet. You sweet Korean neighbors. You're all part of some kind of a scheme.

[Tommy Vietor]

Why didn't you mail it back?

[Jon Lovett]

I always like dropping it off. I like the feeling of dropping it off, handing it in, seeing it go in the box.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it feels good.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. And Ari wanted to vote in person, so we did it together. Each voted twice, as is our wife. That's what we get away with otherwise. But, you know, you're in this. It was the first day of early voting or early and early voting. And they were so sweet and careful about the rules, schools, and wanting everybody. And it's such a wholesome and democratic experience. And it just stands in such contrast to this thing that could only be persuasive to you if you've. I don't know, no contact with the actual world and the actual people running elections in. In California. But all that aside, like, has Chavez.

[Jon Favreau]

Made any updates to the Dominion voting machines?

[Tommy Vietor]

No, I called him, he said he's still dead.

[Jon Lovett]

It was. Yeah, there was a. There was a little shrine to him, which was interesting. People lighting little candles. It's very sort of multicultural in a sense, but it was just like. It was a reminder, too. This is all such fucking bullshit. But, like, to the Mark Elias point about it is, yeah, there's part of the Voting Rights act has election monitors as part of it. What matters is that this DOJ is not run by any of those previous attorneys general. This is Donald Trump's Department of Justice. And this is a illegitimate use of election monitoring as a pretext for calling elections false and using it to ramp up to something bigger and more dangerous in 2020. Mark talks about in their conversation, I.

[Jon Favreau]

Love you said millions of ballots being shipped. Like, you mean mailed to us? Because we all got, we get our ballots mailed to us in California.

[Tommy Vietor]

So also it's not the most important thing. But the NBA betting scandal, part of that truth social post is very funny to me because first of all, cosplay Cash Patel like clearly thought this was a huge deal. And he like went to the press conference in New York and wore his little special FBI whistleblower windbreaker thing or whatever because he wanted credit. And also, it's not just like an NBA story. It's about the mobile, like the five families, La Cosa Nostra, rigging card games, the way sports gambling is impacting billion dollar industries. Like, it's a huge deal. But Trump had to diminish his own DOJ and make it about himself, which is kind of funny.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, he had to go back to the, his core message. He's, he's very, I mean, it was a, he's like, I'm just going to use the NBA thing as a way in to get to my core message.

[Jon Lovett]

He's got Pokemon. Go to the insurrection.

[Tommy Vietor]

There's a way to do it where he's like, hey, great job DOJ busting this thing. You know what else is important? This. I hope you'll approach it with the same vigor. No, he's just a dick about it. But also, I mean, look, the monitoring, monitoring by DOJ of our elections is obviously bad. It will happen in just Democratic districts and like where places where people of color live. And especially in California, it's like some of the most heavily Latino parts of the state. In Jersey, it's like one county. I think with a lot of immigrants, there is a concern that they'll just collect information that Trump will then feed into his, you know, disinformation propaganda machine. But also it's just very dumb because in California, I think the 2021 special recall election was 91% vote by mail. The last cycle was I think 80% mail in ballot. So you're not monitoring that much of the election, sir. You know, most of us are voting from home. Unless you're sending DOJ people to all of our houses to watch us fill.

[Jon Favreau]

Out the ballot or just like hanging out at the post office. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Also, you know, DOJ is not sending people to Virginia because Democrats are going to win big. And also because there's a Republican governor.

[Jon Favreau]

So we haven't talked much about Mike Johnson's refusal to swear in a Democrat, Adelita Grijalva, for a House seat that she won over a month ago. Now. But Tommy, you and I were talking the other day about how this could be a sign of things to come for the 2026 midterms. You want to expand on your concern there?

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't think that was me.

[Jon Favreau]

Was that not you?

[Tommy Vietor]

Wouldn't that be a funny answer you confusing with Dan?

[Jon Lovett]

That was Dan.

[Jon Favreau]

That was Dan.

[Tommy Vietor]

That was Dan.

[Jon Favreau]

That was Dan.

[Tommy Vietor]

No, we were talking about this in part because I was talking to our very, our radicalized redistricting friend Brian Tyler Cohen has been very focused on this as well. We should just say, look, what is driving his refusal to seat Grahalva is because she would be the 218th member to sign a disharged petition that would force the release of the Epstein files. So this is all part of a giant cover up of one of the most disgusting sexual predators in modern American history. Just worth noting.

[Jon Favreau]

Cover up happening. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

So I'm not later. I'm not a lawyer or an expert in this. I should have run into your interview and screamed the mic at Elias. But the way it's been explained to me is like the Constitution is not self executing. There's not like a clear statute that says when a member of Congress needs to be sworn in. Often there's language like new members shall be sworn in by X date from the election. But that's not the case here. So I'm told it's just, it's not unconstitutional not to swear and it's just a huge breach of norms. And so much of our democracy is propped up on norms which are being shredded in the Trump era. And I think there's a lot of concern that this, the Arizona AG has a lawsuit trying to force Johnson to seat her. And if that fails there could create, that could create legal precedent that seems to bolster his argument. And a lot of experts seem to think he is almost certain to lose because you're basically asking the courts to adjudicate or dictate how the speaker runs. The House of Representatives, including elections and SCOTUS in the past has found that Congress is the ultimate authority on how to handle those elections as we Learned and in 2021, 2020. So you know, it's, it's just, it's concerning that you can imagine a scenario going forward where there's closely contested midterm elections at 2026. And Johnson is like, oh, we're just not going to seat all those ones the Dems won. Yeah. Because by the way, he just ceded two members who won special elections in Florida within, like, 24 hours after their election, even though they were not in session.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I worry about this a lot ever since I read Steve Posner, the professor wrote in the Bulwark, like a month or two ago, this piece about the. What Johnson might do in the midterms. So in the Constitution, it says, each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members. And what that means is, say you have an election that's decided by a couple votes, 20 votes, 100 votes, whatever. There's a recount, State certifies it for either the Republican or the Democrat. But then you go to Congress and say, I don't trust the state certification and we need another investigation of the election. So the House Rules Committee or some committee in the House then can do their own investigation. And then the House, without any judicial review, can make the final vote on who to seat. And in the last. Since the first session of Congress in 1700s, 128 races have been overturned out of 35,000. So it doesn't happen often, but it has happened before where the House decides to seat someone.

[Jon Lovett]

So I didn't get into it in too much depth because I was really. There's a lot of. There's a lot of dark Democratic news. And we were just trying to get to the places where we have some levers and this is to come. But what Elias was talking about with me, which is worth listening to, is that there's a lot of shenanigans Johnson can get up to in the lame duck. Who the clerk is actually matters. Like, there's, like, details that will matter because you're thinking about this with norms, not laws. But on the other hand, come 2027, Mike Johnson isn't the speaker of the House. He's not. He may have sort of more power, ostensibly than other members, but the clerk will call the roll, you know, so there's like. That doesn't mean they can't get up to a lot of dangerous and nasty shenanigans. But it's just in part, we just don't know because we've never been in that situation.

[Jon Favreau]

I keep thinking about that slogan from 2024. It turned out to be Trump's best slogan. Too big to rig for all this stuff. Yeah, it's gonna be too big to rig. Cause you Know, you have Democratic seats, they're winning by 1 2%. You're like, okay, well that's, that's gonna be hard. I mean, you can still try to do it, but that's gonna be much harder to do with public opinion, you know.

[Jon Lovett]

Yes, I also do think that, like, I don't put anything past Republicans these days, but Republicans wanna be seated in a Democratic House in the future. There are some like, sort of natural systems, kind of defenses that are built in Republicans not wanting to gerrymander themselves into tough races every couple years.

[Jon Favreau]

Like there are 100% crazy just yet.

[Jon Lovett]

Right. And, and you know that again, another.

[Tommy Vietor]

Reason why a lot of long term thinking these days. I don't know.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, right.

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't have a lot of confidence in that one.

[Jon Lovett]

Not in all of them. Not in all of you don't need to be all. You just need food.

[Jon Favreau]

You'd have to get almost every single Republican, especially given to make this work. Last election, Trump tried to overturn the 2020 presidential that he lost, still a big focus for him and his government. On Friday, Trump added a few names to his list of people he wants his Justice Department to prosecute. Former Special counsel Jack Smith, former Attorney General Merrick Garland, former FBI Director Chris Wray, and former Deputy AG Lisa Monaco. Trump seemed to accuse them of signing off on the collection of Republican lawmakers phone information in 2023 as part of the inquiry into Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which he also accused them of rigging even though he was president. And none of them, except for Wray, were in government at the time. The Post concluded these radical left lunatics should be prosecuted for their illegal and highly unethical behavior. So in the post, Trump referred to Operation Arctic Frost. Anyone want to explain what that is and why Republicans are trying to make it famous? Tommy, you want to do Arctic Frost?

[Tommy Vietor]

Sure. What they're really mad about. So this is the FBA effort to look into the false elector scheme and Trump's efforts to steal the 2020 election. The FBI sought what is called tolling data for the cell phones of eight or nine lawmakers from January 4th until 7th, 2021. And what that tells you is who these people called, when they called them, the duration of the call and the location of the call, not the contents of the call. Like Josh Hawley was saying, I was wiretapped. That's not what happened here.

[Jon Favreau]

Which is basically what Trump was saying in his post, too. They were recorded.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And look like that tolling information, it's incredibly invasive. You can learn a lot about a person about by who they called, when and how long, etc. But I mean, it isn't a wiretap, just if we're being technical. And so, you know, this was just sort of looking into who he may have been scheming with to try to overturn the results elections. It seems like the kind of thing you would want to look into in the course of this kind of investigation. But now we're going to arrest Merrick Garland, I guess. Seems like the thing.

[Jon Lovett]

By the way, we have senators like Ron Johnson kind of with envelopes full of fake electors in their pockets. Right. It's not a. These guys are acting as if the idea that they would ever be part of a scheme to overturn the election is so ridiculous and ludicrous that it defies imagination. A fucking disgrace. Meanwhile, Josh Hawley put his fucking fist up in the air. A bunch of Republicans tried to overturn the election. It's completely reasonable to look into what their actual involvement was in the scheme. And they're trying to because they need to pretend as though the insurrection either didn't happen or was some kind of a protest with a few broken windows that everyone is politicized. They have to now pretend that any sense in which this might have been a broader conspiracy that involved them is offensive to even suggest.

[Jon Favreau]

You guys see any of the excerpts from John Carl's new book?

[Tommy Vietor]

I have a copy of it in my house, but I've not read it.

[Jon Favreau]

Yet, so I just saw one excerpt I think he tweeted out. Do you know that Jack Smith and his team wanted to move to disqualify Eileen Cannon as judge because of all the shit she was pulling and at least tried to, you know, wanted to at least file a motion to see if they could do that. And you know who stopped them?

[Jon Lovett]

No.

[Jon Favreau]

Merrick Garland's Justice Department. So, yeah, that's the guy that was spying on Republican members of Congress and trying to get Donald Trump. He was at the same. He was a double agent.

[Tommy Vietor]

A lot of Trump's biggest benefactors are getting prosecuted. Jim Comey, Merrick Garland.

[Jon Favreau]

It's true.

[Jon Lovett]

Fucking put him in the Norm's wing at the federal prison. They're all gonna fucking end up in the Garland wing. He is the Garland wing.

[Jon Favreau]

It's a monument to. Yeah, you know, he's the embodiment of norms.

[Jon Lovett]

We. We really did bend over backwards to say like, maybe it does just take this long. Maybe it is this hard. Maybe it was this slow. Absolutely fucking Unbelievable.

[Jon Favreau]

And we're bent over the other way. You know, I guess I should nice.

[Jon Lovett]

To be bent over one way or the other.

[Tommy Vietor]

Bent over forwards. That would hurt. Yeah. We only.

[Jon Lovett]

Hey, hey, John. A lesson in politics. You can only bend over one way, my friend.

[Tommy Vietor]

The Pilates.

[Jon Favreau]

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[Angie Hicks]

Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co founder of Angie. One thing I've learned is that you buy a house, but you make it a home. And for decades, Angie's helped millions of homeowners hire skilled pros for the projects that matter. Get all your jobs done well. @angie.com.

[Jon Favreau]

Trump and Maga are also quite focused on elections that have little to do with him, like the New York mayoral race. The President is openly predicting that Zoran Mamdani will win next Tuesday, telling reporters, quote, we're going to have a communist as the mayor of New York. But adding here's the good news, he's got to go through the White House. Everything goes through the White House. At least this White House, it does. Talk about a fucking mob boss, right? Seriously. Trump has threatened to illegally cut all federal funding for New York if Mamdani wins. And some Republicans in Congress are making even darker threats. At least two House members are pushing to look into whether the federal government can strip Mamdani of his citizenship. And Speaker Mike Johnson took time out of his shutdown press conference to attack Hakeem Jeffries for his endorsement of Mamdani on Friday. He called it, quote, shocking and along with the rest of the party, is arguing that at the very least, Mamdani is now the face of the national Democratic Party. Meanwhile, 13,000 people turned out at Forest Hill Stadium in Queens on Sunday night to hear AOC Bernie Sanders and Governor Kathy Hochul rally with Mamdani.

[Jon Lovett]

At least a handful of people showed up for Hochul. Poor Hochul.

[Jon Favreau]

Here's a taste of what they heard.

[Jon Lovett]

It is a time, such as today, when demanding affordable housing is considered a radical and outlandish act. That we can afford our lives, our groceries, our transit is considered considered an outlandish and radical act.

[Tommy Vietor]

We are not the outlandish ones. New York City.

[Jon Lovett]

They want us to.

[Tommy Vietor]

Think we are crazy.

[Jon Lovett]

We are sane.

[Jon Favreau]

And what the oligarchs fear, what they fear is that people will start understanding that this country belongs to us, not them.

[Mark Elias]

Together New York.

[Jon Favreau]

And we're going to freeze the.

[Mark Elias]

Together New York. We're going to make buses fast and freeze. Together New York. We're going to deliver universal. We will make our city one where.

[Jon Lovett]

Every person who calls it home can live a dignified life.

[Mark Elias]

No New Yorker should ever be priced.

[Jon Lovett]

Out of anything they need to survive.

[Jon Favreau]

Sounds so radical and dangerous and hateful, huh?

[Tommy Vietor]

Did you guys have a chance to watch the full Zoran speech?

[Jon Favreau]

I did.

[Tommy Vietor]

God, he's really good.

[Jon Favreau]

Really good.

[Tommy Vietor]

He is just, like, effortlessly charming. The speech started. He goes, you know, a candidate is only as good as the team around him. And right now I'd like to ask that team, can you please turn on the teleprompter because this is all going off the dome. It was so funny and like, God, and it was, like, brutal on Cuomo. Absolutely brutal. Like, let our cheers ring out so that he can hear us in his $8,000 a month apartment in Westchester if he's there for the night. And his puppet master in the White House can hear us like, I know they are.

[Jon Favreau]

They are running through the tape.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes, hammering Bill Ackman in the Billionaire class. And just like, it was fantastic. It was a great speech. Good for him.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, he's, he's an extraordinary politician. He just is. And like, there's, there's a small thing. So there's these housing measures on the ballot in New York and Republican and beret, where Curtis Sliwa has come out against them. Cuomo is in favor. A lot of people on the city council are against them. It's like a classic sort of like Yimby debate. There's some antip. There's. There's some opposition from unions and from left groups. And he actually hasn't said, like, Mamdani hasn't said how he's going to vote on it. Right. And it just sort of speaks to the fact that, like, there's one thing that he's doing that I think is like, makes him a really amazing politician, is the ways in which he is a politician while remaining like, authentic and charismatic, enthusiastic and like, smart about how he's running this campaign. If you watch his interviews, he's so disciplined. He's so disciplined yet, because you know where he's coming from, you know, it's coming from a place of authenticity. He has the kind of the space to do that. But here he's trying to kind of be careful because he's for freezing the rent. He knows that there's some opposition to that from people that think they want market race housing, and that's going to sort of hurt the situation. He's come out more in favor of some market rate building and development. Right. Recognizing he's evolved on that issue, as you see that, like, he is this kind of defiant figure, like, represents the left in this bold way, exciting in a way, while at the same time being kind of like thoughtful about politics on a number of issues. Kind of meeting with like, leaders in business who may not like him, but like, he's sort of charming them. Right. Like, there's something about the way he's doing this that like, belies. But beneath the enthusiasm is just an incredibly sophisticated political operation.

[Jon Favreau]

So you're on the fence.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. I mean, between him and Cuomo, it's.

[Mark Elias]

A tough fucking call.

[Jon Favreau]

The ghoul who thinks it's not a SLIWA guy, the ghoul who thinks it's.

[Jon Lovett]

A waste of his time to even be participating in this election. It is unbelievable.

[Jon Favreau]

Not running through the tape.

[Tommy Vietor]

Zoro is a great speaker. It was a great speech. I mean, he obviously going to get punched in the face by like, the reality of governing that city and city hall and the state and whatever the hell Trump's going to do them. I would just like to quickly point out that Hakeem Jeffries, like, you're still getting the worst attacks from Speaker Johnson and Republicans by waiting to endorse, but in the process, you got the entire left mad at you.

[Jon Favreau]

I cannot.

[Tommy Vietor]

What was the thinking here? I'd still like to know. Also, we are gonna be doing, like, Tupac at Coachella, Bernie hologram speeches at rallies in 2050, and they're still gonna play, don't you think?

[Jon Favreau]

It's so funny.

[Tommy Vietor]

Same speech. It's still like, he's so consistent, but it works.

[Jon Favreau]

Still hits. What do you guys make of the intense focus on Mamdani by Trump and Republicans, the threats they're making and their attempts to make him, which will certainly heat up should he win the election, the new face of the Democratic Party nationally?

[Tommy Vietor]

I mean, I do think initially it was an attempt to scare voters away from voting for him, but I think they've probably given up on that by now. I mean, my God, the Islamophobia that this man has dealt with in the last few months is just disgusting. It is so rampant. It's been rampant in Republican politics for a very long time, but the overt nature of it in the Trump era is just hideous. Like, this woman, I think she was what, like the anti Semitism czar under the Trump administration, posted a photo of the planes hitting the Twin Towers and the. And a man jumping out of one of the upper floors of the building and was like, vote accordingly. I mean, it's just, like, sickening. But also, obviously, we know, like, that's a big piece of the puzzle for Trump. And then he just wants to paint every liberal run city as a hellhole filled with crime and corruption. And so he's getting started early, he's laying the groundwork early, starting now, because he's just going to hammer it going forward. Will he be successful against Mamdani? We don't know. Like, Mamdani is a pretty nimble politician, but Trump will be able to punish him in weird ways that we probably haven't thought of.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I think. I mean, I put these into a couple categories, like the. The attempt by now two House members and several MAGA influencers online to continue to push that. They're going to hopefully denaturalize Zoran Mamdani and deport him. And I take. I mean, talk about taking things seriously. I take that very seriously, very much. Because Stephen Miller has wanted to expand denaturalizations, which are very rare and complicated and hard to do. But he wants to like, supercharge it. He said this publicly for this term. They're looking into it. And if Donald Trump and the ruling party decide that they're gonna try to deport a leader of the opposition who runs America's biggest city by stripping him of his citizenship, then I think every single American should take to the streets. And every single politician, Democrat or Republican, whether you like Zorin or not, especially if you don't, I would say should stand up and fight that and protest that malada is next. Because that is some dark shit to be like. It's Islamophobia for sure. And then there's specific Islamophobia that he has faced. It also intersects with the xenophobia, the larger xenophobia and the anti immigrant push. And it's also just like the most authoritarian shit you can imagine that this guy, this is the guy who runs now the biggest city in America and he's of the different party and I don't like him and so I'm gonna try to deport him.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. Which is why I don't think it would ever succeed. He is a citizen of this country. And like, just on the principle of it, a naturalized citizen is just as much a citizen as someone born here. That is, that is the way it works. And if that is fragile, then citizenship itself is fragile. It's incredibly dangerous. Dangerous. Regardless how you feel about the politics. It seems like, like I remember when I talked to Waleed Jahid about Mamdani a few weeks ago, part of this was about what happens when someone like, from the left has a chance to govern. Right. Like he's gonna put it on its feet. Right. And there's gonna be compromises. That's probably gonna anger people on one side of his coalition. He's gonna pursue policies that people more on the center left predict aren't gonna work. Maybe they'll be more successful than they think. Maybe they won't be. He has to govern and put his governing on his feet. Right. He's bringing in people that, like, he's gonna keep the police commissioner in place, like Brad, like, he's bringing Brad Lander. He's thinking about the people that are gonna be part of the group that are gonna help him govern. Now Trump is gonna try to use the powers of the federal government to make him fail. Not for the ways in which his policies work or don't work, but to try to make him a failure before he's even walked in the door. And so that, to me, is what makes that so dangerous. Right. They wanna claim that he's a communist, danger, anti American, whatever, racism, Islamophobia, all that. Throw it all at him and then try to make sure he fails before he's even had a chance. And he also doesn't have the right to do that, to deny funds to the City of New York or the State of New York because he doesn't like the mayor. But he'll try and he'll have to fight it, and that'll become something that occupies his mayorship, even though it shouldn't. It will make his job harder, but that's the job.

[Jon Favreau]

I'll say. Republicans have been trying to make AOC the face of the National Democratic Party for several years now. Before that, it was Pelosi. They always try to take sort of the furthest left politician and make that person the face of the party.

[Tommy Vietor]

Or the oldest face.

[Jon Favreau]

Or the oldest face. Right. I think if you're a. I'm trying to model good behavior here, because I think the Hakeem Jeffrey strategy, as we acknowledge, probably didn't work that well. Like, if someone says, oh, you're the party of Mamdani now, and you don't agree with Mamdani, it's like, big tent party. There's like, you know that the people of New York nominated him in the Democratic primary, and then the broader electorate voted for him as mayor if he ends up winning. And so I respect that process and I'll work with him. And, like, you don't. It's not that hard. Right. If you really don't agree with him and you're worried about it.

[Jon Lovett]

Right.

[Jon Favreau]

Like, if you like him, you should just say, I like him and I like his policies. And great. But, like, if you don't, I don't think it's a real hard thing. Just be like, yeah, he's got different beliefs than me. We're a big tent party. And that's that.

[Jon Lovett]

That's what made it also that's what makes the Hakeem Jeffries things waiting so long so strange. First of all, you were right. Didn't get him anything. But it kind of is an insult to both the people that like Mamdani, people that like Hakeem Jeffries, people that don't like Mamdani, it's like, you know, is Mamdani the faith. Like this question is it? Is who's the future of the Democratic Party? Is it Abigail Spanberger or is it Zoran Mamdani? And we have to be confident enough to Say yes, like, it's both of them. It's gonna be a big enough party for everybody from Fetterman to Mandani and that, like, part of our job, we're.

[Jon Favreau]

Not a cult like them.

[Jon Lovett]

Part of our job is being part of this, like, big coalition is, like, kind of resisting the effort to divide ourselves based on whether you like Mamdani's politics more than, say, you like, like the politics of whether of. Of like, of Mallory McMorrow or whoever it might be. Because, like, they want to make us one thing. We can't let that work in either direction. We have to just say, like, this is for all of us and anybody's welcome.

[Jon Favreau]

All right, let's talk about the shutdown, because the government has now been closed for almost a month. We're a little over a week away from this becoming the longest shutdown in history. And on November 1st, the pain starts to get even worse. For one thing, that's when people can start buying health insurance for next year through the Affordable Care act, where the average premium is set to rise by 30% if Republicans keep refusing to pass an extension of the subsidies. That is the biggest increase in years. Like 17 million people, it will hit. November 1 is also when the federal government will run out of money for the food assistance that 40 million low income Americans count on, known as SNAP benefits, partly because the Trump administration is refusing to spend contingency funds to keep it going. Other impacted programs include Head Start, which funds education, health and nutrition services for almost a million kids, nutrition assistance for low income mothers and babies, and federal paychecks. Meanwhile, flight delays are starting to pile up. There was a ground stop here at LAX over the weekend, apparently because of air traffic controller shortages. On Sunday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was asked whether it's even safe to fly now, and he did not respond with an unqualified yes, which, you know, gave me a little extra anxiety.

[Jon Lovett]

I love it.

[Jon Favreau]

And yet, despite all of this, Mike Johnson still has the House in recess, which he said on Monday is actually a great thing for all involved. Let's listen.

[Mark Elias]

I don't know what the Democrats are doing other than publicity stunts, but I.

[Jon Favreau]

Can tell you the House Republicans are.

[Mark Elias]

Doing some of the most meaningful work of their career. They are in their districts, working around the clock with their constituents, helping them not only to negotiate the crisis that's been created by this Democrat shutdown, but all the other matters that they need.

[Jon Favreau]

To attend to the most meaningful work of their careers.

[Tommy Vietor]

He's just so bad. That's just not compelling. What Are you talking about?

[Jon Lovett]

Dude, when I'm legislating, I can't really be present for what I need to do to make Donald Trump happy. Now I can really work it, you know, Now I can really put my head into what I am trying to do, really get at all the parts of what it takes to make Donald Trump feel satisfied.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Wow. What's the app called?

[Tommy Vietor]

Covenant Eyes.

[Jon Favreau]

Covenant Eyes.

[Tommy Vietor]

Covenant Eyes.

[Jon Favreau]

Covenant Eyes.

[Tommy Vietor]

Anyway, you guys write laws for a living, right?

[Jon Favreau]

Could do that. Could do that.

[Tommy Vietor]

Just checking.

[Jon Favreau]

Could do some lot of work there. Also, on Monday, the country's largest union representing federal workers urged both parties to reopen the government as soon as possible. Do you guys think any of this should change the calculus for Democrats who have so far stood strong and have been reading encouraging polls?

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't think the AFGE comments, the big government union comments should change the calculus, I think.

[Jon Favreau]

Or any of it, just more broadly, too.

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, yeah, but just on the AFGE point, I mean, I do think they were saying the same thing before the shutdown started. Look, the Democrats have said we're closing down the government to prevent people from taking their health care costs, maybe double. I just saw an article that New Jerseyans who purchase health insurance through the state's exchange will see an average increase of nearly 175% in their premiums next year. It's like that's what Democrats are fighting for. That's what we're fighting to fix. The problem has not been addressed, not even close. So I think we need to stick to our guns here. I know it's going to get really tough, but I'm just not seeing anything that would change my calculus. Even Sean Duffy not being good at the job. Also, he wants to run NASA too, by the way.

[Jon Favreau]

Great.

[Jon Lovett]

Makes sense, guys, in outer fucking space. So the SNAP example that you mentioned, I think it's worth talking about for a second. So there's this contingency fund for funding gaps for snap. It's about like five or six billion dollars sitting there. They got it. The USDA had a memo that said in the event of a shutdown, that's one of the contingencies. We'll have this money and we can use it to help people. Doesn't cover everything, but it'll work for a time. Through a funding gap that was posted on their website. That was something they all seemed to believe was true. They took that down and now they're saying, no, legally, we can't use the money during a shutdown. Now, Trump was willing to kind of extralegally move money around to pay troops at the Pentagon, both moving money inside of that budget and also getting money.

[Tommy Vietor]

From the outside and ICE agents too.

[Jon Lovett]

But when it comes to supplemental nutrition assistance, they're gonna draw the line. Why are they doing it? They wanna make the shutdown worse for people. They wanna make people feel the pain of not like of kids to feel the pain of not having the food assistance that their parents rely on. And then they wanna visit that pain.

[Jon Favreau]

But it's for a good card.

[Jon Lovett]

But for a good cards. Cutting healthcare.

[Jon Favreau]

The sacrifice you're making is so that others, many others can make the sacrifice of paying more in health care premiums. And keep in mind, so that they can keep the filibuster because again, Republicans could end the shutdown tomorrow and so.

[Jon Lovett]

That they keep in place the several trillion dollars in tax cuts that they want for the richest human beings on earth. So to me, like, that should be galvanizing for what this fight is about. Like, that's what they're willing to do. They're willing to, they have the power to send out checks to people to provide food assistance and they're choosing not to to make the shutdown worse so that they can visit political pain on Democrats. But that's a small example of the larger way in which they're governing, which is what the shutdown is about.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, yeah. I would just keep saying, like, look, either sit down with us to talk about ways to prevent premiums from increasing or end the shutdown yourself by changing the Senate rules if you think it's so painful.

[Tommy Vietor]

And the point of Speaker Johnson's bizarre spin there is that Republicans are not even in Washington.

[Jon Lovett]

Washington.

[Jon Favreau]

Right.

[Tommy Vietor]

They're not even in session to come together and meet and have figure out a way through this.

[Jon Favreau]

Also come November 1st, a lot of people think, you know, once the. So the open enrollment in ACA and the Affordable Care act, the window's open now so people can go shopping this week and look online and see what the prices are. So people are starting to realize that the prices are going up and November 1st you can start enrolling. And most of the experts think that, you know, once you get past November 1st, even if they make a deal, they're not going to stop be able to stop premium increases from hitting in 2026 at best, if they extend the subsidies, they'll be able to save 2027. But we're getting to the point now where it's just going to be too late to even fix the premium increases. So then it's like, then what are they doing?

[Jon Lovett]

I didn't realize that.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, it's getting, it's getting very, very late because they, you know, like, they think if a deal was made, like by the end of this week, they could go back in the States, could recalculate, and the insurance companies could recalculate, but it's like, it's getting much, much tougher. Pod Save America is brought to you by Helix. Helix mattresses are great. I know John has some here.

[Jon Lovett]

I bet I do.

[Jon Favreau]

We have a couple Helix mattresses as well, including for our eldest child. And super comfortable. Great. And they're like tailored to you. You take the sleep quiz, they give you the exact right mattress for your body and your sleep style. Helix knows there's no better way to test out a new mattress than by sleeping on it in your own home. That's why they offer a 100 night trial and a 10 to 15 year warranty to try out your new Helix mattress. They have several different mattress models to choose from. Since everyone's unique and everyone sleeps differently, each is designed for specific sleep positions and feel preferences. So how will you know which Helix matrix works best for you and your body? Take the Helix sleep quiz and find your perfect Mattress in under 2 minutes. Your personalized mattress is shipped straight to your door free of charge. All you have to do is go to helixsleep.com crooked that's helixsleep.com crooked for 20% off site wide. Make sure you enter our show name after checkout so they know we sent you helixsleep.com crooked hi, I'm Angie Hicks.

[Angie Hicks]

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[Jon Favreau]

One of the major leverage points for Republicans was supposed to be paychecks for the troops. But as you've probably seen, MAGA billionaire Timothy Mellon has stepped in anonymously to put up $130 million to offset some of the missed checks and benefits. Not the way things usually work. Private donations to. That's why we have a tax system, actually. And a government might be illegal ostensibly, but what do you guys think?

[Jon Lovett]

Sure.

[Tommy Vietor]

Seems illegal. There's A law called the Anti Deficiency act that prohibits federal agencies from spending money beyond what Congress is appropriated. Also, just as a practical matter, $130 million, that's a lot of money. But there's 1.3 million US service members, so it's like 100 bucks a pop. So it's not really going to cover the shortfall. I'm not sure what they're going to do with it.

[Jon Favreau]

It covers one third of one day's pay for the force. That's what AEI came out with, one missile.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's just. It's just weird. Like, this whole thing is weird. I don't know that I want to focus only on the donation to pay for the troops, because that feels like historically good messaging.

[Jon Favreau]

But, like, you know, I'd love to.

[Tommy Vietor]

See Democrats total up all the special interest money going towards doing favors from. For Donald Trump, like, all the corporations that are swooping in to bribe him by paying for the new Trump Ballroom. That's part of it. Like, there's all the money. That's the crypto cash, the real estate deals, the plane from the Qataris. Like, just. We got to find a way to drive more attention to this stuff and put more scrutiny on it and just ask why. What is Timothy Mellon getting in exchange? Why would anyone do this? It's very weird.

[Jon Favreau]

I'll tell you what, I don't like a privately funded army. No. Under the control of the President and maybe that guy. Funded by one of his biggest donors. Yeah, I don't think that's a good. I don't think that's good. The Constitution, bad messages.

[Jon Lovett]

Constitution's pretty clear. Concrete, clear. The power of the purse belongs to.

[Tommy Vietor]

That guy, Timothy Mellon.

[Jon Favreau]

So, yeah, he can raise an army. And Donald Trump gets to control us.

[Jon Lovett]

Yep.

[Jon Favreau]

Cool.

[Jon Lovett]

There are a lot, like, you know, this is one of those classic things, like, you know, we've been trained by years in kind of old politics. That's like money for troops. Good. Right. And you get attacked if you don't want money for troops. So this Guy's gonna make $130 million donation. It's hard to total up the fortune of the Mellon family. It's vast. It's vast fortunes. But it's, you know, somewhere around, let's say, $14 billion, by some estimates, benefit. Benefiting vastly from Trump's tax cuts. Billionaires added a trillion dollars in net worth during Trump's first term. One year of the tax law gives $117 billion to the top 1% of taxpayers. I'm glad this Guy wants to feel like a patriot because he paid the troops for 45 minutes or the better part of the day. And you know what? I'd rather the money go there.

[Jon Favreau]

Some reporter dug it up.

[Jon Lovett]

I'd rather the money go there. I also think air traffic controllers deserve to be paid. I think nurses at the Veterans affairs deserve to be paid.

[Jon Favreau]

Talk about who's making an anonymous donation to the air traffic controllers.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, maybe we should have a system where we get to the airport. We can pay them ourselves, everybody. The pilots can go around with a little fucking bag. We go put money in to pay the air traffic controllers. We have a way to do this. And, like, you know, Donald Trump understands as well as anybody that there's no such thing as a free lunch. Like, maybe this guy was moved, his heartstrings were tugged. He also apparently donated money to find Amelia Earhart's planes. He seems to have an emotional relationship to his money, and he does things with it as his as he can. Because we live in a society with an elite class of people that inherited vast wealth like this person. But there's a reason we don't want the ballroom to be paid for by corporations and we don't want to go to the crypto.com arena state for fucking dinner because we live in a democracy and we collectively decide where the money goes. We have a great way for billionaires to pay for the military. It is through the tax system, and they have made that more difficult while allowing this man to feel like a hero of the week for covering the first shift. And that's bullshit.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, one more clear cut example of Trump unilaterally inflicting economic pain on the whole country is his punishing tariff regime, which is why inflation is now higher than it's been since the Biden years. The current president doesn't seem to know or care. Late last week, Trump halted trade talks with Canada and raised tariffs by 10% on all the goods we get from our neighbor to the north because of an ad run by the Province of Ontario that dared to feature Excerpts from a 1987 Ronald Reagan speech where Reagan cautioned against imposing tariffs.

[Tommy Vietor]

And the Katy Perry, Trudeau thing.

[Jon Favreau]

Every once in a while, you feel fucking stupider just saying the sentence. Yeah, like what? American farmers are also suffering from the tariffs, especially soybean farmers, thanks to retaliation from China. Not to worry, though, because if you are a soybean farmer, hedge fund manager turned treasury secretary, Scott Besant, he wants you to know that he is you. He is you.

[Tommy Vietor]

I am him.

[Mark Elias]

In Case you don't know it, I'm.

[Tommy Vietor]

Actually a soybean farmer, so I have felt this pain too.

[Jon Favreau]

I could watch that clip like 10 times. That hit so hard. Can we play that clip again?

[Tommy Vietor]

One more time, Run it back.

[Mark Elias]

In case you don't know it, I'm.

[Tommy Vietor]

Actually a soybean farmer, so I have. I have felt this pain too. He's stiff in the weirdest way.

[Jon Lovett]

I don't.

[Jon Favreau]

Was that a joke?

[Jon Lovett]

Maybe.

[Jon Favreau]

He owns soybean farmers.

[Tommy Vietor]

He's a soybean slumlord.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, he's a soybean slumlord. He owns $25 million worth of soybean and corn farmland in North Dakota. So he owns most of North Dakota.

[Tommy Vietor]

He's a soy boy.

[Jon Favreau]

He's a soybean farmer. He actually, he just owns North Dakota. Right. Is what really was going on there. He apparently receives as much as $1 million a year in rental income from his soybean farmland. He is worth half a billion dollars. The Treasury Secretary who is a soybean.

[Jon Lovett]

Farmer, King Louis XVI could barely sleep with all the racket outside the castle. All these people saying how hungry they are. We're all feeling the pain of pre revolution France.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like, it's a tired observation, but imagine if a Democrat said that like Fox News, what they would do to the Yale educated protege of George Soros who is now Treasury Secretary and calling himself a farmer.

[Jon Favreau]

They still call Tim Geithner some Wall street banker. And the guy never worked on Wall Street.

[Tommy Vietor]

Very good point.

[Jon Favreau]

He was never even Wall Street.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's also like he like, okay, so historically, China's been the top buyer of U.S. soybeans. It was like $12 billion annually. China stopped buying U.S. soybeans to punish us in the trade war. They've been buying retaliation from the Brazilians and Argentina, et cetera. So what, what Besant is actually doing there is bragging about the gigantic conflict of interest that he personally has in being the one to negotiate this deal with China, trying to get them to come back and purchase more of the U.S. soybeans. And so he, he recently on Sunday announced that the. He negotiated the Chinese to do a quote, of substantial purchase of U. S. Soy. It's not clear what that means because the Chinese have already bought all the soybeans they need to make whatever the fuck you make out of it. And so it's not clear how much more they will buy. But like, Trump keeps stepping on this same rake. Like in 2018 and 2019, China stopped buying soybeans to hurt US farmers we had to bail them out. It seems like we're coasting towards that outcome again.

[Jon Favreau]

Do you think tofu is one thing you can make?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

Soy sauce.

[Jon Favreau]

Here we go.

[Jon Lovett]

Edamame again.

[Tommy Vietor]

Soy boys.

[Jon Favreau]

Do you. You guys think American consumers understand that the higher prices we'll all be paying are a necessary sacrifice to punish Ontario for running a TV ad that made Donald Trump mad? It's like, I'm sorry. I'm sorry, folks. They ran a nasty TV ad up in Ontario. So now you're all paying more money.

[Jon Lovett]

I'm raising the cost of goods at Walmart.

[Jon Favreau]

Because I was mad about an ad in Ontario. That feature that was. That was honest. That featured Ronald Reagan just saying something.

[Jon Lovett]

We're so fucking far.

[Jon Favreau]

Also the legal. Down the rabbit hole here. It's really gonna. I'm telling you, it's not gonna help the. The legal case. I was about to say the reason he's not consulting Congress on the tariffs is because it's a national security. It's an emergency.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I like. I do think back to that. That ruling by Immerget about how, like, you can be deferential to the president while recognizing that words have meaning. Did Congress really intend to. To make the president kind of a fucking petulant tariff? God, who can punish speech in other countries he doesn't like, or actually in this case, speech in our own country from another country that he doesn't like with a 10% tariff on all these fucking businesses. Domestic businesses, domestic buyers, domestic consumers. Because he's kind of fucking annoyed that Ronald Reagan's words are being thrown in his face to send a signal what to other countries not to dare speak ill of him in our public arena.

[Tommy Vietor]

They also already stopped the ad. Yeah, it wasn't like Mark Carney did.

[Jon Favreau]

This, but the tariffs remain.

[Tommy Vietor]

So such a petulant baby.

[Jon Favreau]

Here's some tough news after all this. Did you guys see that? The argument at a national poll. What would happen if Trump and Kamala ran against each other in 2028?

[Tommy Vietor]

No.

[Jon Favreau]

You want to know the results?

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, tell me.

[Tommy Vietor]

Kinda, I do.

[Jon Favreau]

51, 49. Kamala, I just think she is on top. 5,000, 149. So there's some progress. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Moe, baby. I just hate living in a country where it's like Trump could bomb New York and it's like 48, 50.

[Jon Favreau]

He did lose some of those young people that he won in 2024. But the base is. The base remains.

[Jon Lovett]

I think it was funny, the approval rating. The approval rating. I think you made this point when the approval rating has basically been static since about 2015. It's just, it really is, it's innervating, that's for sure.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's like also, we're still trapped in this world where like you regularly hear someone cite baskets of deplorables as this horrible thing that happened. Right. They were still slapping Hillary Clinton around for that.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

And Trump, Trump posts an AI video of himself dumping on Harry Sisson, I believe, and a bunch of Democratic.

[Jon Favreau]

And everyone, everyone who protests in the.

[Tommy Vietor]

New York Times article, I was reading about it that mentioned it today, said he dumped brown liquid. I was like, I think we know what the liquid was.

[Jon Favreau]

Couldn't tell what it was. Couldn't tell what it was.

[Jon Lovett]

I mean, I think that's, I mean, honestly, I think it's fair reporting. They have to go find out what he. It's artorial. It's artist's intent. Yeah. Like, this is where I kind of like stepping back to, like, there's so many confident people about, like, the direction the Democratic Party should go and like, this should be our message. This shouldn't be our message. Like, these are the people that understand what the future of the party is or how this is where Biden went wrong, whatever. And like, I just, like, it is so hard to move people now. It is so hard. There's so many kind of counter indicators all the time. And that's where I kind of, I find myself struggling to even know what we do in a situation where the president has launched an all out assault on the economy through tariffs, is applying them to our biggest allies because he didn't like a television commercial. The wealthy landlord is doing interviews on CNBC referring to himself as a fucking soybean farmer.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And right. And to your point on votes not moving.

[Mark Elias]

Right.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like Obama won Iowa twice. There was a great piece in the Times over the weekend about how Trump's policies are absolutely crushing Iowa.

[Jon Favreau]

It's like a depression. It's like a local depression.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's a local depression. It's soybean farmers. It's Trump canceling all these wind energy projects. It's the immigration actions, getting rid of all the workers that work on these farms. Like these Iowa farmers are getting killed, but it's not leading some like populist revolt against him. They're kind of like, well, we don't, I mean, I guess, look, we had a big governor's race next year, Rob Sands running, maybe he can pull this out. There's a big Senate race there as well.

[Jon Favreau]

We'll see But I'm also just, you know, polls are polls, but I'm interested in the results in the 2025 elections.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes, me too.

[Jon Favreau]

See where we are. We'll get at least some read on where everyone is or at least people in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City and a few other states after, in California, after, after a week from Tuesday. All right, when we get back from the break, you'll hear Lovett's conversation with Mark Elias about our elections and the 22nd Amendment. Two quick things before we do that, a reminder. It's time to start holiday shopping and we are ready for you at the Crooked Store. We got merch from all your favorite Crooked pods, plus holiday exclusives. You can now [e-mail] store or if you're more of an in person shopper, do they come here? Oh, a selection of our merch will be available at CrookedCon.

[Tommy Vietor]

Smart idea.

[Jon Favreau]

We open up a brick and mortar here in the office. Speaking of Crooked Con, another reminder, we're just 10 days away. As I mentioned on the Friday show, I'm hosting a panel about Democratic messaging with Jen Psaki, Faz Shakir and Democratic strategist Liz Smith, Rebecca Katz and Adam Jennelson. Tommy and Ben are going to be doing a panel about what a forward looking Democratic foreign policy should look like in 2025.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm looking backwards. We're also going to do, I'm also doing a panel about we're going to talk to some of the lead consultants on the 2025 races, whether they won or lost, what the lessons were, what we did right, what we got wrong, what they observed. So that'll be cool.

[Jon Favreau]

I love that. And you did cut off the panelists and you and Ben's Ro Khanna and Yassamin Ansari are going to be on that panel, which is great.

[Tommy Vietor]

Excellent.

[Jon Favreau]

Lovett's going to be hosting a panel called are We Having Fun yet with Hasan Piker, Simone Sanders Townsend, Tim Miller and Jessica Tarloff. That's a fun what a panel.

[Jon Lovett]

It's gonna be fun. We're talking about why Democrats seem like such downers and what it will take.

[Jon Favreau]

To, I don't know, just listen to our show.

[Tommy Vietor]

I had a good ass time last hour.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, well, present company excluded.

[Tommy Vietor]

Of course.

[Jon Favreau]

Tommy Levitt and Dan will also be doing one on one interviews with Lina Khan, Ruben Gallego and Chris Murphy. And Alex Wagner is going to be talking with Andy Beshear. And on top of all of that, there's the Vote Save America Action Hub to see the full Schedule, get tickets. Head to crookedcon.com.

[Tommy Vietor]

That'S where you get some action.

[Jon Favreau]

That's right. As we discussed, the whole hub for it.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, it's like the Olympic village.

[Jon Favreau]

There'll be fewer condoms.

[Tommy Vietor]

Crookedcondoms.com no, you got it.

[Jon Lovett]

That's the point. You got it. You got where I was going. We're good.

[Tommy Vietor]

Because love it doesn't mean I was.

[Jon Lovett]

Going to say more. Yeah, because we don't need them. Why would he cut.

[Mark Elias]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Oh, we got some of those.

[Jon Favreau]

That's right. That's right. That's right. Abundance fans. There was just an abundance joke. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

We promise there'll be some abundance bros in the house, if you know what I'm saying.

[Jon Favreau]

That is the first condom related abundance joke that has been told. I don't know. We can check with Ezra and Derek on that. But I believe it's the first.

[Jon Lovett]

Foreign.

[Jon Favreau]

Is brought to you by Quint. As the weather cools, I'm swapping in the pieces that actually get the job.

[Jon Lovett]

Done for getting the fall job done.

[Jon Favreau]

The important thing is that's how I talk.

[Jon Lovett]

We talk about our pieces.

[Jon Favreau]

I'm like, you're wearing a nice piece today.

[Jon Lovett]

What a beautiful. What a beautiful autumn piece.

[Jon Favreau]

Have you thought about swapping it out for some a different color?

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. Well, because it is cozy season, John.

[Jon Favreau]

And that's, you know what you need in cozy season? What? Warm, durable and built to last. And guess who that is.

[Jon Lovett]

Who is that? It's Quince.

[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Lovett]

And in some sense, every room in every air conditioned building is somewhere between spring and fall. You know, when you think about it.

[Jon Favreau]

Or if you're in our winter. Summer. It's winter and summer. Quinn's has the kind of fall staples you'll actually want to wear on repeat. Like 100% Mongolian cashmere from just $60. $60 for Mongolian cashmere? What? Classic fit denim and real leather and wool outerwear that looks sharp and holds up. Got my eye on a suede trucker jacket, perfect for layering and looks really casual. But put together by partnering directly with ethical factories and top artisans, Quince cuts out the middlemen to deliver premium quality at half the cost of similar brands. I know it's only October, but if you're thinking of holiday shopping as I am, I think I'm going to go on quints and see what kind of stuff they got because I bought a lot of clothes from quints and I bet a lot of people in my life would would really enjoy them. Layer up this fall with pieces that feel as good as they look. Go to quint.com crooked for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q U I n c e.com qriket free shipping and 365 day returns.

[Angie Hicks]

Quince.com crooked hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co founder of Angie. When you use Angie for your home projects, you know all your jobs will be done well. Roof repair done well. Kitchen sink install done well. Deck upgrades done well. Electrical Upgrade, done well. Angie's been connecting homeowners with skilled pros for nearly 30 years. So we know the difference between done and done well. Hire high quality [e-mail].

[Jon Lovett]

Mark Elias leads the Elias Law Group and is the founder of Democracy Docket, a digital news organization dedicated to protecting democracy and voting rights. Mark, welcome back to the pod.

[Mark Elias]

Thanks for having me back.

[Jon Lovett]

Lots to talk about. All of it great. Steve Bannon said.

[Mark Elias]

Is it really all great?

[Jon Lovett]

It's all great. Steve Bannon said that Trump will get a third term and quote, people just ought to get accommodated with that. Trump didn't rule out a third term when asked about Bannon's comments. How seriously should we take this?

[Mark Elias]

So one of the things I've always said is that we got terrible advice to take Donald Trump seriously, but not literally. I think we have to take him both literally and seriously. And so Donald Trump wants a third term. I fully expect he is going to try to get a third term. That is, there is no constitutional loophole here. There's no legal way for him to seek a third term. There's no like special provision that Steve Bannon has found that none of us but. But that won't stop Donald Trump from trying to do so anyway. Remember he incited a violent insurrection in the nation's capital the last time he tried to. But take a term that wasn't his.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. So that's why I'm of two minds of it. On the one hand, I think we need to say unequivocally he will not have a third term. But we need to say that in a way that doesn't act as if it won't be something that is pursued that Donald Trump doesn't see as a possibility. To your point, there's no secret king mode inside of the Constitution that when Bannon says, oh, we have a plan, they have no access to any secret information that would make that possible. So then it's incumbent on us to understand what that plan could look like. And tell me if I'm wrong. One would be they just defy the Constitution, he just doesn't leave office. That's a possibility. And then the other is a whole collection of end runs around the Constitution. Like, you know, the speaker of the House, no rule says can't be a dog kind of stuff. Which one are you more worried about and how do you take it literally and seriously, like, how do you prepare for something like this?

[Mark Elias]

Yes, I take the first. More, more, more seriously than the second, because there is no end run around the Constitution. You know, like, there's no, there's no, there's no secret way, like I said, for him to be the Vice President or that. I mean, the closest thing there would be to a secret way would be, frankly, that he does what Vladimir Putin did after his first term, which is that someone else is technically the president, like, for example, Don Jr. And he is, he is just like the power behind the throne. But that's, but that's not an end run around the Constitution. I mean, that's just, you know, that, that, that just is what it is. I think what Steve Bannon and others have in mind, I suspect, is something that looks much more like January 6th. I mean, let's be clear, he already has military in a number of major cities in the United States. That number will grow. He is already building what would be, I don't remember if it's the sixth or the eighth largest military in the world in ice. You know, like when you look at the by budget size, a force that will be very loyal to him. And, you know, we've recently learned that he's planning on deploying Department of Justice monitors in seven counties in California around a ballot, a state ballot initiative, and in New Jersey in Passaic county, which is 43% Hispanic, for a gubernatorial election. Now, I don't think he's going to affect the outcome of those, but do I think he's doing that because he's looking forward to 2026 and then ultimately 2028. Sure.

[Jon Lovett]

So I want to get to 2025 and 2026. But before we move on from this, you know, Steve Bannon makes this comment, and now we're having a conversation about how powerful and dangerous Donald Trump is when whatever their plans are, Donald Trump doesn't want to be perceived as A lame duck. And is there any way in which you worry that we're even in sort of following this lead imbuing Trump with more power and political will than he actually has?

[Mark Elias]

No, and here's why. Look, I represented President Biden in the aftermath of the 2020 election, and we won 64 of 65 cases. What? Those cases got more and more desperate over time. They got less and less meritorious over time, but they actually gained more and more political support among Republicans. You know, people don't remember this, but the, one of the last cases that went forward was the state of Texas suing four Democratic states directly in the Supreme Court to throw out the election results. Now, that case was never going to succeed. But what happened was that wound up getting the support of a majority. Almost all of the Republican state attorneys general signed on to a amicus brief there, as did 126 House members. Those 126 House members were led by and organized by a backbench Republican at the time from Louisiana named Mike Johnson. And 126 Republicans signed on to this effort. And then on, on the night of January six, after the violent insurrect, 139 Republicans supported that. So it actually gained support through the, through January 6th. So I don't think this is going to succeed. I don't think Donald Trump, like I said, there's no secret plan. There's no way that the military, I think, could be deployed to overturn the results of a free and fair election. But all of these things have to be treated seriously because January 6th had to be treated seriously. Those lawsuits had to be treated seriously. It didn't mean they were going to succeed. It just meant that you couldn't dismiss them. So people shouldn't be despairing about this. People shouldn't give Donald Trump powers he doesn't have, because he have these powers. But we also should recognize that, like, he's not above using violence. You know, he's not above going outside the Constitution. He's not above bulldozing part of the White House. And so we need to be prepared and we need to be serious minded about it. But if we are, we will be able to prevent him from, you know, serving past his, his sell by date on January 20, 2029.

[Jon Lovett]

Okay, so let's talk about how we do that. We have 2026, but before that, we're here in 2025. DOJ has said they're, they will monitor elections in California and New Jersey, as you mentioned. What does that mean in practice? And then how does it set them up for something more dangerous in 2026?

[Mark Elias]

So, look, one of the most dangerous things I think, that is happening on the center and center left is that people are finding excuses for the abnormality of the Trump administration. Administration. So you will hear people say, well, hasn't the Department of Justice always sent monitors, federal monitors, to elections? I mean, after all, it was after the passage of the Civil Rights act that this federal monitor program got going and really took off. And the idea was you'd have DOJ monitors go to places with histories of discrimination against minority voters, and you'd have them observe to make sure that those minority voters were not being discriminated against. This is not that doj. This is not the Merrick Garland doj. This is not the Bill Barr doj. This is not the, you know, I could, you could go back in time. This is Donald Trump's Department of Justice. This is the Department of Justice run by Pam Bondi for the. And they're not sending out these monitors in order to protect minority voting rights. They're sending them out because they are trying to test the fence. Now, they're not going to overturn the results of the ballot initiative. They're only in seven counties. They're in one county in New Jersey. But it is notable. They are not, for example, in Virginia, which is also having gubernatorial elections, but which where Republicans run the state. And so what I think is happening here is two things. Number one, they're sending these monitors out so that Donald Trump can lie about what happens when he loses the ballot initiative in California, when Gavin Newsom and the voters of California pass this ballot initiative. Donald Trump wants to be able to lie about California elections. Why? Because he's always lying about California elections. And he wants to. He wants to, to create a permission structure to do so. Same in New Jersey when Mikey Sher wins that election, as he moves forward, though, to 2026, that lie both helps start to delegitimize those elections in 2026, create a permission structure for these federal monitors to be much more widely deployed in 2026. Because they'll say, look, we deployed them in 2025 and nothing bad happened. In fact, they uncovered fraud. Right? So you can see the building of a big line narrative that these monitors are part of. And then in 2026, you have more monitors, more places, military, more places. You have, you know, you have Donald Trump claiming that there should be no vote by mail. There should be no, there should be no states that have absentee voting except for people in the military. And in his latest social media post, he says there should be no early voting. That's right, no early voting. And so you can start to see all of these things coalesce as we head towards 2026 in which he lies about what happened in 2025. He uses that as an excuse to do more egregious things in 2026. And then he claims that there's fraudulent voting that requires greater federal action.

[Jon Lovett]

And do you worry about that being in place in 2026 in such a way that election results will be questioned, that there's a possibility that even in 2026 we won't be able to count on the outcomes of those elections? Or is that more for 2028?

[Mark Elias]

No, I think you put your finger right on it. And I think you use the right, I think you use the right versus questioned. Right. I am, I'm not saying that we will not have elections in 2026. Of course we'll have elections in 2026. Actually, dictators quite like elections. The question is how fair and free they are. And I suspect in 2026 they will look less fair and free than they were in 2024 and perhaps more fair and free than they will in 2028. Right. So it's someplace in between. And so what I suspect that he is laddering up to in 2026 is to be able to make it marginally higher, harder for people to vote. Right. Maybe some Republican states, for example, repeal their mail in voting laws or cut back on how easy it is to vote early. Right. Remember, Republican legislatures and Republican governors have proven themselves quite willing to scale back on democracy when Donald Trump asks them to. So maybe you see that, maybe you also see an increase in election vigilantes in, in some Democratic states.

[Jon Lovett]

So can we then, I'm sorry, before we get on to what's next, I want to stop on that for a second because you, you put together two things and I think they're both important. One can be overcome with information and turnout, which we have also seen. Right. As Republicans have tried to come after legitimate and done through legal means come out, come after, maybe with rhetoric that's not true, whatever, but they've come after some kinds of access to voting. And we've seen Democratic campaigns and, and, and those in favor of more voting overcome them. That is a separate matter than vigilantism and intimidating people out of voting, which can't be ultimately is very difficult to even measure. So can you, like, let's put aside for a moment Republicans hearing his Call to get rid of early voting or mail in voting, which by the way, it's not even clear hurts Democrats. Like that's it. That is, that's. I don't think, I think it's stupid, but it's overcomeable. It's something we can deal with. What, what, what, what does intimidation look like to you?

[Mark Elias]

Yeah, so look, I, we have been, I've been warning about a particular type of intimidation for several election cycles now. We've seen a rise in it and it is this idea of right wing election vigilantism and it has basically taken two forms. The first is mass voter challenges. Now we have seen there's always been some number of people who get challenged in their right to vote. But what we have seen over the course of the last two election cycles is the building of right wing organizations and right wing organizations with, with voter files that essentially create one stop shopping for right wing activists to download lists of thousands and tens of thousands of voters that they then take to their local election office or mail into their local county and say these 10,000 people or 20,000 people should not be allowed to vote at all. They are ineligible. They're not properly registered. We've seen this in the hundreds of thousands in states like Georgia. We've seen it in the thousands, so not in the tens or hundreds of thousands in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and even in New Hampshire and New York. And we're seeing that grow every election cycle in scale and in scope because it's becoming easier to use big data from these right wing groups. And so we're seeing more and more of that. That's probably the primary way. And my legal team and I, we fight against it. As you say, it's hard to organize around. Sometimes it's even hard to know what's going on. The other is more traditional types of intentions intimidation in which you see people. For example, in Arizona we saw outside of Maricopa county, we saw people in body armor and video cameras staking out dropboxes. Right. Intimidating people returning their mail in ballot. Right now we are. The Republican Party is in court in Minnesota to try to strike down a law that prohibits voter intimidation around the polls. Right. We've seen this movement by Republicans and conservative organizations try to strike down state laws that prohibit this under the guise of free speech. So this is, those are the sort of the two twins that we see. And that's before you get to things that are done by the federal government itself.

[Jon Lovett]

So now let's turn to what those are. I want to Break it down. And it's, it's, it's all very daunting. Okay, so now we've got efforts to get people's names off the polls. We've got people intimidating people out of voting. Now the votes are cast. What are you worried about from that point forward? Because I think that is where people feel the most disempowered. Right. They feel the most scared. Like what, what am I meant to do? I did my part. I got everybody to vote. We voted. Now what's. Now what happens?

[Mark Elias]

Yeah. So now we get to the thing that is probably the most concerning of all, and that is, as you say, after people have voted, you have the vote counting and the certification process. And just to be clear, Donald Trump posted on social media on, On Truth Social several months ago. It was the social media post that garnered a lot of attention because he targeted vote by mail and some voting equipment. But if you read down in that social media post, what he said was that the states are the agents, his word, the agents of the federal government for tabulating and counting results. And then he said that the federal government is him because he is the embodiment of the federal government. Now, everything about that is untrue. A, states are not the agents of federal government. B, he is not the federal government and citizens they don't like. He doesn't get to control vote counting. But that is clearly what he has in mind, is that the tabulation of votes and the certification of votes will be the friction point that he can put the most pressure on. We know that he is interested in this because in an Oval office meeting in 2020, on December 16, there was actually a proposal for him to send the FBI into the state of Georgia to seize the ballots and the voting equipment in the 22 after the 2020 election. And that didn't happen because the White House Counsel's office, others in the White House and people at the Department of Justice threatened to resign. Well, we know no one's going to threaten to resign this time if he does that after 2024, 2026. We also know that in the run up of the 2024 election, there were movements in a number of states, including in Georgia, to allow election deniers on county election boards to refuse to certify election results. Okay? If they didn't like the numbers, they could refuse to certify. You may remember this led to litigation and other pressure in Georgia. But it wasn't just Georgia. And again, we've seen a history of this. I sued my law firm and I, we sued Cochise county after the 2022 election because they were refusing to certify the outcome of election. We, we sued after 2022 in Pennsylvania, several counties, for refusing to do so. The only reason why you didn't see this litigation in 2024 is because Donald Trump. Trump won. So you're gonna see election deniers at the county level and at the state level encouraged by the White House to refuse to certify Democrats if they won elections. And that's, of course, before you get to the House of Representatives seating and the Senate seating, which is like the whole, the whole, you know, the whole whole ball of wax in some sense.

[Jon Lovett]

So you've just laid out what their potential levers are to subvert the will of, of voters in individual races across the elections in the midterms. What are our levers? And for people listening to this, who want to feel galvanized and empowered as citizens to do everything they can to make sure we win the midterms, what are their places where they have some way to influence this part of it? So they know with confidence that not only they're going to get people to do everything they can to make sure we win the House and ideally the Senate in the fall, but that we have the power to make sure that, that it actually carries through.

[Mark Elias]

Yeah. So we have a lot of levers and, and ours are stronger than theirs. Okay. Which is the reason why this is not a hopeless conversation. I'm laying out what their game plan is. Just like before the 2020 election, I laid out, frankly, for people what Donald Trump's game plan would be, which is that he wouldn't want to leave the White House.

[Jon Lovett]

But he sounded fucking crazy.

[Mark Elias]

And I said, and people did say I was crazy. Right. And like, it turned out it was true.

[Jon Favreau]

True.

[Mark Elias]

So here's the deal. Number one, one of the. One of the realities of almost all of Donald Trump's anti Democratic actions is that he winds up getting sued and loses. And so the truth is it would be a. It will be. It would be, again, a painful process to have to sue county by county to force certification, but we would sue county by county to force certification, and we would win. And we will win. And we did in 2020. We did in 2022. And if we have to do so again in 2026 or 2028, will do so. So the courts are actually pretty good on these issues. The courts tend not to favor the loser of an election being able to withhold a certificate of election or seating from, from the winner. That's number one. Number two is that this whole process is very fragile, but its fragility favors activism. And so one of the reasons why Republicans have been successful in some quarters here is because, because they've been willing to be very loud. Remember Rudy Giuliani and all the people claiming that they were, you know, they were, they were kept out of the counting and then banging on the windows in Michigan and. Right. Activism matters. And so one of the things that we have seen this year is that Democrats and progressives are very, very excited and very, very engaged. And these voter suppression techniques tend not to survive first contact with, with peaceful activism. They tend not to survive. You know, someone can stand outside a Dropbox and try to intimidate people, but if there are five other people standing out that Dropbox saying, get out of our community. Get away from this Dropbox, honestly, it works. It saves the Dropbox. If people think that they're going to subvert the will of the election after the election by refusing to certify, one of the ways that doesn't happen is that people notice and they protest and they, they go to the county board meetings requiring certification. Let me tell you a really quick story. You know, this whole idea of refusing to certify elections has its origin in, in Wayne County, Michigan, following the 2020 election, when the two Republican members of the Wayne county board were told by the White House not to certify the election. Donald Trump called these local officials. It's a two Republican, two Democratic board. And at first they weren't going to certify. And then, if you remember, people like you sounded the alarm. And the result was that Democrats in Wayne county flooded that county board. It was actually an online canvas. It was in the middle of the pandemic. And as a result, the Republicans, they relented, right? They didn't want it. They were willing to do this in quiet. They were not willing to do it if it was a public spectacle. And the same thing happened at the statewide canvassing board when the, when people thought the Republican canvassing board members at the statewide level would refuse to certify. But there was a public outcry and public attention, and they did certify. And so the truth is that, that, that if people are paying attention to these things and people are engaged and they are, and they are, they are standing up against voter challenges. They're standing up against refusal. Certify. Typically, the, or very oftentimes these, these state boards and county boards, they, they can only steal elections in quiet. You know, they can refuse to certify in quiet in the back rooms, but if there's people paying attention, by and large they, they, they wind up doing the thing that is right.

[Jon Lovett]

So right now, as we're recording this, Mike Johnson is keeping the House out in part because he does not want to seat a Democrat who won a special election because that would give them the votes to do the resolution on the Epstein files. How much does this look like a harbinger to you of the ways in which Republicans in Congress could try to stand in the way of, of Democrats taking back the House? What does that look like? How does that work?

[Mark Elias]

Look, there are a lot of doomsday scenarios around Mike Johnson and the House and seating. I mean, I'll say this. The Senate is a continuing body. As you know, the House is not. So like, whether Mike Johnson likes it or not, you know, in the first days of January, the House is going to reconvene and the clerk is going.

[Jon Lovett]

To call the roll.

[Mark Elias]

And like Mike Johnson actually doesn't have any more power on that day than anyone else. Right. So. So in some sense I'm not, I'm not minimizing the trouble that Mike Johnson can create. I'm not. He can try to do things in the lame duck. He can try to, you know, appoint a new clerk. Like there's all these, like, technical ways that people worry about this. And believe me, I've done more House and Senate contested elections probably than any other lawyer, certainly than virtually any other lawyer if there's some Republican out there. And I just, I think that, that what Democrats need to focus on is winning the elections. We need to worry about passing the registering initiative in California. We need to make sure that because the easiest way for Republicans to essentially rig this process is by gerrymandering so many seats the Democrats can't win or, you know, creating voter confusion or apathy division within the Democratic coalition so that they don't vote. You know, I think if we get to the place where we have won the seats on election night, leave it to the lawyers and the political operatives and Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, they will get it across the finish line. It may not be pretty. It may look a lot like what we saw in 2020, but the main thing everyone can do right now is if you have not already volunteered for a campaign, you don't have to love every Democrat. Pick the Democrat who you love and go give to them and volunteer for them.

[Jon Lovett]

I love every single one of them.

[Mark Elias]

You and me both. This Is the thing about me is I don't do inter party squabbling. I don't do when people say to me, oh, what about cinema and mansion? And what I say is that the only reason why you focus on Cinnamon Mansion is because every Republican votes against voting rights. Every single one of them. And, and the same is true on the left. Like for every complaint people have about a progressive Democrat, I'm like, the only reason why you have to complain about them is because not a single Republican ever does the right thing.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, this is what makes you good. This is why you're our lawyer. You know, you're not, you're not sort of in the, you're not doing this part of it. You're just doing the law. So last question. Are there ways people can get involved in the, like, what is, what is the most effective thing our listeners can do who are really worried about this, who are doom scrolling a lot, who feel hopeless or powerless because this is an assault on their ability to use the power that they believe is theirs by right? What is the most effective things people could do to be part of protecting the vote? 2025, 2026, beyond.

[Mark Elias]

Yeah. So look, the single most important thing that anyone can do and that everyone can do probably is a better way to put it that everyone can do as they can speak up. You know, right now we have a crisis of cowardice in this country. And it is not just the largest institutions that are cowards, although they are pretty cowardice. But honestly, we need more people willing to speak up. And that means for everyone listening, you all have social media, you all have a bridge club, a lunch club, a bowling league. You all get together with other knitters, you are on it, you are in a Facebook group. You have dinner with your friends and your family. And now is the time to not stay silent. Now is the time to speak up up and say that, that what Donald Trump is doing to this country is wrong, what Republicans are trying to do to our democracy is wrong. And that everyone should have the opportunity to be registered, to vote, to cast their ballot and have their ballot counted, and that there should be zero tolerance for anything else. And I know that sounds like a really simple thing, but honestly, there's not enough of that. There are too many people who are just holding back because they don't want to be in the fray. They don't want to be in that line of fire. They'd rather have a polite conversation than a hard conversation. And we need more people willing to have hard conversation. So that's Number one. Number two, you know, if you are able to, if you have the time and if you, or if you could spare a few dollars, find a Democratic candidate or a progressive organization and volunteer for them or give money to them. You know, like I said, you know, your thing in California may be the ballot initiative. You may not like the candidates, but you may like the ballot initiative. So go knock doors and volunteer for the ballot initiative. On the local level, you may say, look, I don't really care for partisan politics at all, but there is a civic organization like the League of Women Voters who is registering voters voters. Or you can go become a poll worker by getting trained. Right, because we need good election officials doing honest work in every place in this country. Right? So there's a way for you to engage locally in, in the community everywhere you go. And then the final thing is, I always say this. You know, people think that judges live in these like separate communities. One of the reasons why we tend to win so many cases is because judges live in the community communities and they go to their kids soccer games just like you do. They go to the local mall just like you do, or the local diner. And the more we create a sense in communities that we expect that our elections will be fair and free and that they will be representative, the more likely we will wind up with good outcomes. You know, the, the, the, the watching, not just the no Kings rallies, which have been inspiring, but watching what's going on in Portland and what's going on in Chicago and, and to some extent in LA is actually quite, it is both terrifying and terrible, but it is also, at a civic engagement level, quite admirable. You're watching people put themselves out there and saying, you're not going to do this in my community. You're not going to drag people out away in the middle of the night on my watch. You're not going to disappear them to gulags while, while in, you know, while they're my neighbors. And we can all do that in all aspects of our life. And when we get closer to voting, that can be part of us too. If you see someone who's afraid to go to the polls, go with them. You know, if you are, if you hear that there are vigilantes staking out a Dropbox, you know, peacefully, safely. But, but make your presence known because cowards are the ones who are trying to suppress the vote and they do not withstand a little sunshine.

[Jon Lovett]

Thank you so much, Mark, for being with us. And Mark will be at CrookedCon. He'll be on a panel, I believe, with Jon Favreau talking about the ways we can fight back. Is that right? I get that Right. So thanks for being part of Crooked Con. Look, I'll see you in person then.

[Mark Elias]

I am really looking forward to it. And anyone, I don't know how many tickets they have left, but if you are in the Washington D.C. area and you've not already gotten your tickets to Crooked Con, please do so. It is going to be great. I looked at the, I looked at the program and there are so many exciting panels that are coming up. So I look forward to seeing you guys there and I hope I see.

[Jon Lovett]

Everybody else will be wild, one might say. Mark Elias, thanks so much.

[Mark Elias]

Thanks.

[Jon Favreau]

That's our show for today. Thanks to Mark Elias for coming on. Dan and I will be back with a new show on Friday. Talk to everybody then. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricket.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our producers are David Toledo, Emma Ilick Frank and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrienne Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Hayley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Carol Pelaviev, David Toles and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America EAS.

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