Trump's War on Blue America

Summary

Pod Save America: "Trump’s War on Blue America"

Date: October 7, 2025
Hosts: Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor
Guest (interview): Ben Smith (Editor-in-Chief of Semaphore)

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Overview

This episode dives deep into the Trump administration’s escalating federal crackdowns on Democratic ("blue") cities, specifically targeting Chicago and Portland using militarized immigration raids and National Guard deployments. The hosts examine the legal, political, and human impact of these actions, critique the administration’s motives, discuss public reaction and polling, and analyze the media ecosystem in the Trump era. Additionally, the episode touches on an upcoming California ballot initiative (Prop 50) designed to counter Republican gerrymandering, and features an insightful interview with journalist Ben Smith about media shakeups and Trump’s information bubble.

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Main Topics and Key Points

1. Trump’s Militarized Crackdown on “Blue America”

Chicago: Operation Midway Blitz

• What Happened:
  • Armed federal agents, Black Hawk helicopters, and military-style raids conducted on South Side apartment buildings, involving flashbang grenades and mass detentions—including legal residents and U.S. citizens, children, and city officials—without warrants or legal representation.
  • Tear gas used outside schools and against civilians/journalists.
  • Scenes filmed for social media, used by politicians like Kristi Noem for political messaging.
• Federal/Military Escalation:
  • Trump deployed 300 IL National Guard troops (against the governor’s wishes), plus 200 TX Guard troops to Chicago.
  • State and city officials, including Governor Pritzker, are suing to stop federal deployments.
• Trump’s Stance:
  • [04:39] Donald Trump: “We’re going to make Chicago really great again, and we’re going to stop this crime. Then we’re going to go do another one, and we’re going to go city by city. We’re going to have safe cities...I believe they’re afraid. They’re scared for their lives.”

Hosts’ Analysis and Reactions

• Political Strategy of Chaos:
  • Tommy Vietor: "He wants these images on TV of what looks like violent and chaotic. And so he sends ICE into these communities in the most inflammatory way possible to try to make that happen." [06:39]
  • Use of military tactics meant for warzones now deployed in American cities is “clearly a strategy” to activate a siege mentality and agitate political divisions.
• Propaganda and Disinformation:
  • Jon Lovett: “They’ve released no information about that. They can’t be trusted. They said a bunch of people who were innocent were gang members when they shipped them off to El Salvador. So we can’t take their word for it.” [07:45]

Human Rights and Legal Overreach

• Dehumanization and Militarization:
  • Forces detaining even children naked, ICE agents reportedly saying “fuck them kids.”
  • Deployment of military equipment and tactics (e.g., MRAPs), previously reserved for the War on Terror, now on U.S. streets.
• Impunity and Quotas:
  • Jon Favreau: "They are trying to meet Stephen Miller's quota of 3,000 arrests per day and I guess a million deportations a year." [09:42]

Public Opinion and Politics

• Polling Shows Backlash:
  • 58% of voters disapprove of National Guard deployments; only 39% support sending military to cities (including 70% of independents disapprove). [28:54]
• Political Risk/Bubble:
  • Images of children and protests seem more damaging than helpful for Trump.
  • Despite this, administration continues, showing willingness to govern by force, not popularity.

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2. Portland: Legal Resistance and “Civil War by Administration”

Escalation and Judicial Response

• Federal National Guard Deployments:

  • Trump attempted to send Guard troops to Portland in response to minor protests (e.g., fewer than 20 people outside a single ICE facility since June).
  • Oregon’s governor and the city sued; Judge (Trump appointee Karen Immergut) temporarily blocked the deployment, finding Trump’s claims “simply untethered to the facts” and likely unconstitutional under the 10th Amendment. [15:00]
  • Trump tried to circumvent the ruling via out-of-state deployments; Judge called this “not clever” and blocked all such troop orders.

• Presidential Rhetoric:

  • [15:46] Donald Trump: "Portland's been on fire for years... it's a burning hellhole. And then you have a judge that lost her way...pretend that there’s no problem."

Hosts’ Reactions

• Legal Analysis:
  • Jon Lovett: “The judge also said, ‘This is a nation of constitutional law, not martial law.’... The ruling, by the way, it’s a beautiful piece of logic and it’s actually pretty conservative.” [18:13]
  • Tommy Vietor: "[Sending troops from one state to another] is basically an administration-orchestrated civil war." [16:31]
• Fascist Rhetoric:
  • Highlights escalation in Stephen Miller’s statements, branding judges as “legal insurrectionists” and accusing Democrats of “left wing terrorism.”
  • Jon Favreau: “He is trying to set the predicate for much more extreme action.” [22:51]

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3. The Insurrection Act & Limits of Federal Power

• Legal Ambiguity and Danger:
  • Discussion of what the Insurrection Act allows (troops performing law enforcement vs. federal property defense) and the real but not unlimited dangers—there is no true “martial law” loophole for the President.
  • Jon Lovett: “There is no martial law in this country. Even if there’s military in our streets, you still have your constitutional rights.” [25:19]
• Administrative Overreach:
  • Hosts argue the administration is already acting as if under the Insurrection Act, justifying extreme actions with a siege mentality—more to galvanize the MAGA base than sway the broader public.

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4. Political Fallout and Shutdown Negotiations

Shutdown and ACA Negotiations

• State of Play:
  • Federal government remains shut down, little progress in Congress; Trump sending mixed messages about willingness to negotiate on ACA subsidies.
• Trump’s Stream-of-Consciousness Leadership:
  • [39:41] Donald Trump: “If we made the right deal, I’d make a deal...I want to see great health care. I’m a Republican, but I want to see health care much more so than the Democrats.”
• Democratic Strategy:
  • Senate Dems holding the line on ACA subsidies; uncertainty over how long they can maintain unity.
• Public Perception:
  • CBS poll: Slight edge for Dems, but most blame is shared and issue salience is low (“they all suck”). Issues like inflation and economy still top of mind, more than crime or immigration, which Trump tries to foreground.

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5. Prop 50: Ballot Measure in California to Counter Gerrymandering

Context and Stakes

• What Prop 50 Does:
  • Governor Newsom’s initiative to suspend California’s nonpartisan maps, letting Dems partially counteract Republican gerrymandering in other states (e.g., Texas, Missouri).
  • Early polls show support (54% yes), but off-year conditions mean turnout and organizing are everything.
  • Ballots are out; early in-person voting starts Oct 25.
• Campaign Strategy:
  • Heavy emphasis on relational organizing; hosts urge listeners to tell friends in California to vote Yes.
  • Tommy Vietor: “Everyone vote YES on Prop 50, get your ballots and do it soon.” [51:12]

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6. Media Interview: Ben Smith on Bari Weiss, CBS, and Trump’s Media Bubble

[65:04–86:48]

CBS News Shakeup

• Barry Weiss as New Editor-in-Chief:
  • Paramount (CBS parent) acquired The Free Press for $150m, installs Bari Weiss despite lack of TV news experience. Owners reportedly share Weiss's right-leaning, pro-Israel, anti-"woke" views.
  • Likely a move to curry Trump’s favor as CBS seeks regulatory approval for future mergers/acquisitions.
  • Ben Smith: "This is the Titanic, like, well, after it has hit the iceberg in a place that has been in a kind of state of real crisis and decline for many, many years." [66:46]
• Staff Mood and Prospects:
  • Morale low, CBS News viewed as "95% of the headaches" for its parent company.
  • Questions if this will shore up business or simply accelerate CBS’s decline.

Trump’s Information Bubble

• How Trump Now Consumes Information:
  • No longer immerses himself in Twitter or mainstream coverage; relies on Truth Social "bubble", pro-Trump TV (Fox, OAN, Newsmax), and a tight inner circle filtering what he sees.
  • One aide, Natalie Harp, is his “gatekeeper” with an iPad.
  • Ben Smith: "He is trapped in an information bubble." [80:05]
• Potential Consequences:
  • Increasingly out-of-touch with public mood and actual reality; prone to conspiracy theories and memes.
  • Tommy Vietor: "God help us all. I mean... he tweeted this video... about med beds... AI renders his own voice for a made up technology." [78:22]

Media Climate and Power Dynamics

• Conservative Corporate Control:
  • Both Smith and the hosts worry major media companies are increasingly controlled by right-leaning or Trump-fearing executives (David Ellison at Paramount, Elon Musk at Twitter, TikTok deal).
  • The focus is no longer ideological journalism, but on not angering the government or losing business.
• Talent Leverage:
  • When ABC/Disney caved to right-wing pressure, it was A-list entertainers (not journalists) who forced a reversal on the Jimmy Kimmel suspension. [84:35]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Federal Raids

  • Jon Favreau: “This is also the war on terror coming home to roost because...there’s all this leftover military equipment...ICE has a Black Hawk helicopter in Chicago for some reason. What are we doing here?” [09:27]
  • Tommy Vietor: “They drive a tank through the wall and pull out Andre the Hairdresser from the other side. It's like, come on, guys, this is bull.” [10:45]

• On Political Strategy

  • Jon Lovett: “They do have a siege mentality now...Stephen Miller's whole, like, there’s a country under siege. Our side is under siege. And so they respond with siege-like tactics...” [11:05]

• On Portland Court Ruling

  • Jon Favreau: “This is a nation of constitutional law, not martial law...I should note here that this radical left Marxist Judge Karen Immergut was appointed...by Donald Trump.” [15:03]
  • Lovett: “Sending one state's National Guard to another...is basically an administration-orchestrated civil war.” [16:31]

• On Media Bubble

  • Ben Smith (on CBS): “I don’t know if you are a regular viewer of the CBS Evening News. If you are, you are very unusual for our age group.” [66:46]
  • Ben Smith (on Trump): “He is trapped in an information bubble. In his case, Truth Social, where he sometimes goes on these sprees of retrofitting really weird memes...” [80:05]

• On Democrats’ Political Weakness

  • Jon Lovett: “If we cave, we are giving in to the idea that we are weak. If we hold the line, there's an issue where we can prove our bona fides...Let’s prove to people we can fight and win.” [44:56]

• On Prop 50/Gerrymandering

  • Jon Favreau: “It is...off-year election...so you have to remember, the ballot’s coming, I gotta fill it out. What is Prop 50? Tell your friends if you live in California. I think it’s really, really important.” [51:42]
  • Tommy Vietor: “The real like X factor is there's a lawsuit in court right now challenging Texas's plan...but we need to do this in California. So everyone vote yes on Prop 50, get your ballots and do it soon.” [51:12]

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Timestamps by Segment

• [02:13] – [12:05]: Chicago crackdowns, Operation Midway Blitz, constitutional, moral, and human rights concerns
• [13:59] – [22:51]: Portland crackdown, court battles, legal arguments, escalation, Stephen Miller’s rhetoric
• [24:01] – [31:33]: Insurrection Act, limits of power, legal risks, political analysis and polling
• [39:30] – [49:16]: Shutdown, negotiations on ACA, polling, strategic debate for Dems
• [49:43] – [57:54]: Prop 50 (California), gerrymandering, organizing, plus discussion of affordable housing and Newsom’s record
• [65:04] – [86:48]: Ben Smith interview: media shakeups, Bari Weiss at CBS, Trump’s info bubble, ABC/Kimmel, the corporate rightward slide of media

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Takeaway for Listeners

This episode exposes an alarming shift toward hostile, force-based governance in Trump's America, especially targeting Democratic cities. The hosts unmask the misinformation and cynical spectacle fueling these actions and sift through the fallout—legal, political, and human. Listeners are encouraged to fight back at every level, from informed voting on local ballot measures to demanding independent, accountable journalism, and confronting the ways the new media environment empowers reactionary forces and silences dissent.

To Get Involved:

• If in California, vote YES on Prop 50 and tell your friends ([51:12]–[53:32]).
• Support independent media and stay engaged; defenders of democracy need every tool available in this climate.

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For more information and direct action links, visit votesaveamerica.com/Prop50.

Transcript

[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Favreau]

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.

[Jon Lovett]

I'm Jon Levitt.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm Tom Iguitor.

[Jon Favreau]

On today's show, the shutdown continues with no end in sight. The November elections are a month away and this week we're gonna talk about Gavin Newsom's ballot measure here in California to neutralize Republican gerrymandering. Then you'll hear Tommy's interview with Ben Smith. It's Semaphore about the impact of Bari Weiss taking over at CBS News, how Donald Trump's media filter may be impacting his decisions, and whether the ABC News Jimmy Kimmel saga has changed corporate media. But let's start with the president's war against blue America, which has now come to Chicago and Portland. I'll just quickly go through the facts of what's been happening on the ground and then you guys can respond. In Chicago, armed federal agents have been engaged in military style immigration raids they're calling Operation Midway Blitz. Last week, Black Hawk helicopters landed on a South side apartment building in the middle of the night where about 100 agents in tactical gear used flashbang grenades to bust through the residents doors, dragged them outside, including legal residents and US Citizens, including children, some naked and zip, tied them together for hours. No warrants, no lawyers, kids crying, separated from their families. They have also deployed tear gas outside schools and on streets, not just against peaceful protesters, but people who were just passing by. They arrested a city council member in a hospital who had merely asked to see a warrant. They've shot rubber bullets and pepper balls at multiple journalists who just filed a lawsuit. They shot lethal bullets at a woman in a vehicle they said was trying to ram them. Though just before we started recording, I said that they had this. The body cam footage shows that maybe they rammed her as they're going through the court proceedings. So of course, you can't trust anything they say. Some of the raids they filmed for social media so Kristi Noem could tweet them out. She was there in person last week in Chicago, whining after local officials in one building didn't let her use the potty, then promising that Trump would be sending in the Department of War, which he did. On Saturday, the president announced he'd be deploying 300 troops from the Illinois National Guard over the objections of Governor Pritzker. And then on Sunday, he decided to send 200 troops from the Texas National Guard to Chicago as well. Governor J.B. pritzker and the city of Chicago are suing to stop the deployments. And the judge scheduled a hearing for later this week. Here's Donald Trump crowing about his progress on Monday afternoon in the Oval Office, followed by Pritzker's response to the takeover.

[Donald Trump]

We're going to make Chicago really great again, and we're going to Stop this crime. Then we're going to go do another one, and we're going to go city by city. We're going to have safe cities. I believe that Pritzker and this mayor of Chicago that like to say about, we have it, they don't have it under control. Not only is it not under control, it's the opposite. And I believe they're afraid. They're scared for their lives.

[Jon Favreau]

You think they can fool us all into thinking that the way to get.

[Jon Lovett]

Out of this crisis that they created.

[Jon Favreau]

Is to give them free reign?

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, that plan will only work if we let it. The state of Illinois is going to use every lever at our disposal to resist this power grab and get Noem's thugs the hell out of Chicago. I'm not afraid. I am not afraid, and I won't back down.

[Jon Favreau]

So last week we had Trump telling an audience of generals that they're now fighting, quote, an enemy within, urged them to use America's cities as, quote, training grounds. Looks like we're seeing that now. We'll get to what's happening in Portland in a second. But what do you guys make of the situation in Chicago, which, as Trump said, is not only not under control, but the opposite? Yeah, that could be out of control.

[Jon Lovett]

Right? It's the opposite of under control over control. That's not right. That's not right.

[Tommy Vietor]

Even the terminology is kind of chilling. Operation Midway Blitz. The Blitz was when the Germans bombed the shit out of London for about a year.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I thought that was for, like, foreign military operations. We give names to, like, just even.

[Jon Lovett]

You know, you're claiming you're doing this on behalf of the people of Chicago. Call it something like safe, safe dish, deep dish, hot dish, deep safety, tavern style safety.

[Tommy Vietor]

Do you see the videos of the Chicago cops who were tear gassed by ice, too?

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, yeah, I forgot about that. There's so many of these videos that I've forgot to include them all.

[Tommy Vietor]

And, like, look, I just think that the political take home is this, to me, is the fight Trump wants. He wants to call us weak on both immigration and soft on crime. And I think he wants these images on TV of, like, what looks like violent and chaotic. And so he sends ICE into these communities in the most inflammatory way possible to try to make that happen. And like, these ICE raids like that, Black Hawk helicopters kicking down doors at night with flashbangs. That is like what the special Forces did for two decades in Afghanistan or Iraq. And they have their social media teams, like, filming it all and releasing it. The Hype video they did released reminded me of the video Bukele released when we first sent all the Venezuelan men to Sukkot. And so it's like clearly a strategy. I don't think it's a smart strategy. We'll get into some of the polling later, but like 58% of voters in the CBS poll. So they disapprove of National Guard deployments. I'm not sure, like, they want to see, you know, people getting brutalized in these communities, but Stephen Miller does.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, to the point of not being able to believe the word they said. So first of all, they're rappelling into the roof. To what end? For what purpose? Like they're trying to get out of Abbottabad before the Pakistanis find us.

[Jon Favreau]

It's filled with trend Aragua.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, that's the other thing. They're like, we were actually doing this to get gang members. They've released no information about that. They can't be trusted. They said a bunch of people who were innocent were gang members when they shipped them off to El Salvador. So we can't take their, their word for it. All we do see are images of Americans and legal residents being bound up and complaining about this happening in their building. It's a completely ridiculous outside show of force which they're doing for the cameras to make their fascist agitprop and you know, the fence, they're gonna release information at some point saying, look at all these people that Democrats wish were still in these buildings. As if it is not possible for our laws to be enforced without a Blackhawk helicopter over an American city and people rappelling down onto the roof.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. I mean, imagine if, let's take their word for it that there were trend gang members in that building and get a warrant from a judge. There's a million ways that you can go into the building and arrest these people without them running away or knowing that you're coming. Right.

[Tommy Vietor]

Stairs.

[Jon Favreau]

Stairs. Right. Like not Blackhawk helicopters.

[Jon Lovett]

It's a five story building, by the way. This isn't, this isn't right.

[Jon Favreau]

This isn't like 2 Sears Tower, but also like there's a lot of people in there. They took all the residents out and, and they're definitely lying, at least about some of the people because a lot of citizens and legal residents have already been released because they didn't do anything. But they were out in the cold for hours. These kids are screaming like little kid. This eyewitness is talking to like a local television channel there and just said it was like Horrifying. These kids who are, like, some of them were naked, some of them weren't, like, fully clothed, and they're crying and they're separated from their parents, and one of the ICE agents is saying, fuck them, kids. And. And, like, they just don't care.

[Tommy Vietor]

And this is also the war on terror coming home to roost because, like, the cops now have MRAPs because there's all this leftover military equipment from Iraq and Afghanistan. ICE has a Blackhawk helicopter in Chicago for some reason. What are we doing here? We completely militarized policing in this country.

[Jon Favreau]

And they are. The ICE agents now are acting with impunity because they have good reason to believe they're not going to be held accountable, and because they are trying to meet Stephen Miller's quota of 3,000 arrests per day and I guess a million deportations a year. And so they're gonna just arrest everyone who they see. And, like, this is. This is what we're getting to your point about strategy, Tommy. Like, it's definitely. It's interesting. Like, their strategy for sure, is they want people to see that this is a militarized operation and that they are happy to use force.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

The difference is, like, the lie is about who it's directed towards. Right. So they want to put out, keep putting out videos that tell you, yes, they're using. It's a militarized operation. Yes, they're using force, but it's against the worst of the worst, these terrible crimes. And Democrats are against it. And the videos that we're actually seeing are them using force against. Not the videos they're putting out, but the videos that we're seeing otherwise are them using force against cops, kids, innocent people, American citizens, peaceful protesters.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right. They drive a tank through the wall and they pull out Andre the Hairdresser from the other side. It's like, come on, guys, this is bull.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. The other thing, too, is it's like, it's all predicated. Like, they do have a siege mentality now. Right. These ICE officers themselves feel like they're under siege. They've been made. They've internalized that. Stephen Miller's whole, like, there's a country under siege. Our side is under siege. And so they respond with siege, like, tactics. And who does that work for? Well, it works for people that are, like. It works fully for people that are only imbibing information in their ecosystem. Right. Because they see the reports about how these cities are in turmoil and in crisis, and then they see positive reports from Kristi Noem and all these people defending what they're doing. If you're outside of that bubble, you see a mix, right? You see what these guys are claiming. You see the local leaders saying that this is ridiculous. You see footage of Portland and Chicago being normal places. Yes, there are areas where there have been like, a few blocks of protests, even unruly, and protests that have, that have turned chaotic and even violent. But for the most part, of course, this is ridiculous. And so then you end up with like, the vast majority of Americans in these pollings saying, look, I don't support this. I certainly wouldn't want it in my city. Right. They may not trust Democrats to enforce either immigration laws or to be strong on crime. Right. They see Democrats as weak. That's in the CBS poll. But they certainly don't want this crackdown.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Jon Favreau]

All right, let's turn to war ravaged Portland, where Trump announced at the end of September he was deploying troops to use, quote, full force if necessary, against protests outside a single ice facility that haven't involved more than 20 people since June. There've been about 20 people outside this one ICE facility since the end of June, like a couple weeks in June. It was pretty unruly, and I know that because it's in the court document. It's in the ruling that we're gonna talk about. So, like Governor Pritzker, Governor Tina Kotek opposed the deployment of the Oregon National Guard and sued the Trump administration. On Saturday, a federal judge agreed to block the deployment, at least temporarily, saying that Trump's claims about violent unrest in the city are, quote, unquote, simply untethered to the facts and that, quote, the plaintiffs are likely to succeed on their claim that the president exceeded his constitutional authority and violated the 10th Amendment. The 10th Amendment, for those who don't know, is if it's not explicitly spelled out in the Constitution as a power and authority that the federal government has, those authorities are. They go to the states. The states have.

[Jon Lovett]

And the people, John. The people and the fucking people.

[Jon Favreau]

That's us. Yeah. The judge also said, quote, this is a nation of constitutional law, not martial law. I should note here that this radical left Marxist Judge Karen Immergut, was appointed in 2019 by Donald Trump. The White House then tried to get around the ruling by sending troops from California to Oregon instead. Texas is also trying to send troops to Portland. Judge Immergut didn't think this move was all that clever. She wasn't too happy about this. And she held a second emergency hearing on Sunday night where she clarified that no Guard troops from any state could be deployed to Portland for the time being. The administration appealed that ruling to the Ninth Circuit. As of this recording, we are waiting for them to rule. Trump had some choice words about Portland and the judge. Let's listen.

[Donald Trump]

Portland is, is on fire. Portland's been on fire for years and not so much saving it. We have to save something else, because I think that's all insurrection. You look at what's happened with Portland over the years. It's, it's a burning hellhole. And then you have a judge that lost her way, that tries to pretend that like there's no problem.

[Jon Favreau]

She lost her way. She lost her way. Trump also said on Sunday that he only nominated emergut in his first term because he got bad advice. What'd you guys make of her ruling and Trump's reaction?

[Tommy Vietor]

He doesn't know why he nominated her. What does he.

[Jon Lovett]

A list he approved that came across his dad.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. Leah Littman did a great video breaking down what happened in Portland with this ruling on the strict scrutiny YouTube. I highly, highly recommend it. But in that video she made the point that sending one state's National Guard to another state is basically an administration orchestrated civil war. And I think that's how we should see this. And you know, as you mentioned, like, the judge in this case could not have been more scathing. You can see these protesters, their videos are all over Twitter. It is like 20 people.

[Jon Favreau]

A lot of them are old.

[Tommy Vietor]

People are in Halloween costumes.

[Jon Favreau]

There's a chicken suit, there's a dude.

[Tommy Vietor]

Dressed like Yoshi or something. Like, it's.

[Jon Lovett]

Look, lawn chairs are involved.

[Tommy Vietor]

At one point back in June, some shit went down. But like, when people are violent, they should be arrested. But like, the idea that the Portland cops couldn't handle that is crazy. If people say mean things, guess what? That's protected speech. And that's how it goes. I talked to Ben Smith about this. I do wonder if, like, comments like what we just saw do stem from his information bubble. Because in Trump's world, untrue social, it's all adulation and like antifa videos from 2020 of people throwing, you know, bricks through Starbucks windows. And the reality is very different. But like, either way, the suggestion that ICE can't do their jobs in Portland without a National Guard deployment is ludicrous on its face. The Trump judge said as much. And like, I can't even believe we're talking about this.

[Jon Favreau]

I also think that it was in Ben's piece on this, on Trump's media filter bubble. It's the people around him too, right? And so they know what his media diet is. And so Stephen Miller is telling him things are so much worse than they are. And, and you know, Ben brought up that quote that Trump told Oregon's governor in late September, am I watching things on television that are different from what's happening? My people tell me different, which I kind of believe.

[Jon Lovett]

There, there is, there is a moment too where in one press conference, Kodak talks about talking to Trump and Trump's like, oh, well, we'll just keep talking, right? He's very kind of like convivial on the phone. The ruling, by the way, like, it's a just a. I recommend reading at least excerpts of it. It's like a beautiful piece of logic and it's actually pretty conservative. It goes through the case methodically and not with any kind of grand hyperbole. But it just starts from principle. And what I appreciate about it is two things. One uses these exact kind of words from Trump against him, where she, she basically says, this is not in good faith. Look at how he's describing Portland. That is not accurate. That is not what's happening on the ground. And the other part of it is, you know, there's been a lot of question about how deferential courts have to be to Trump these words. They're not defined. Insurrection, rebellion. Right. And she's very careful of saying, yes, the President gets a great deal of deference, of course, but deference is not equivalent to ignoring the facts on the ground. And I do think that's really important because even if you are being deferential to the President. No. Like you do not to be so open minded that your brain falls out of your head. There's no invasion, there's no rebellion, there's no insurrection. The laws are still operating, the courts are still operating. This is ridiculous on its face. And you can be deferential to the executive on these without giving into that. It's just a very careful argument, including asking as to whether or not this fits into a permitted range of honest judgment, which, by the way, is not just about this law. It's also about the Insurrection act, which I know we're gonna talk about, but I do think is important.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, clearly this is all like the brainchild of Stephen Miller, who by all accounts is the person actually running the federal government. He went a bit further than Trump. In a series of tweets over the weekend that sound like a fascist chatbot, he used the term, quote, legal insurrection. Called the decision one of the most egregious and thunderous, thunderous violations of the constitutional order we have ever seen and an attempt to, quote, nullify the 2024 election by fiat. He also claimed that there's a large organized movement of, quote, left wing terrorism being shielded by far left Democrat judges, prosecutors and attorneys general. The only remedy is to use legitimate state power to dismantle terrorism and terrorism networks. He just, he was on a fucking Tear. He called Sam Stein repugnant.

[Tommy Vietor]

Sam Stein, like, the least repugnant, who.

[Jon Favreau]

Just basically, quote, tweeted the legal insurrection quote, and was like, what a thing to say on a Saturday night. And he's like, you are repugnant. Representative Dan Goldman, broken clock. We were.

[Tommy Vietor]

We were all watching in our office, Stephen Miller doing this CNN interview earlier today. And you notice he does every interview from kind of a weird angle, and he has this shrieking, shrill, like, aggrieved tone. It's just, like, so clearly, and it's remarkable to watch Stephen Miller rant and rave about domestic terrorism and nullifying the results of an election when, like, the clearest act of domestic terrorism in this country's recent history with January 6th. And he defends that, like, I assume this is the continuation of the post Charlie Kirk rhetoric where they are trying to build a conspiracy that will allow them to pull in, like, funders and progressive groups and say that they're somehow providing material support for terrorism and go after, like, the Soros foundation, the Ford foundation, or, like, center for American Progress or whatever groups that they decide are their enemies. But it's risable. It's laughable.

[Jon Favreau]

After all of those tweets from Stephen Miller and the interview that we saw today in the office, he tweeted something just now that he accused Democrats of raving histrionics. Okay.

[Tommy Vietor]

Steve.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

It's unbelievable, right, that if you refer. If you refer to any of this is fascist. You're inciting violence. Meanwhile, the left is an organized terror movement. Our opponents are an enemy. Within the cities are war zones and a training ground for the military. Judges who rule against us are legal insurrectionists. And by the way, these are just facts. And if you don't see that, you're the one that's being emotional.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

It's like, I can't tell what to make of, like, Steve, look, there are all kinds of members of the administration that are saying, you know, Kristi Noem kind of is extreme. There's all different versions of this. But Stephen Miller does stand apart, I think, in the rhetoric that he's using and the extremism and the language he's using. And I really can't tell, like, is he, like, gonna. Is he the boy who cried terrorism? Right. Is he, like, making this all feel less real, even to his own side? Right? Like, does it all feel like it's not gonna lead to anything? Or is this. Or. Or. And. Or is this just a preview of things to come? That now it all feels so crazy, and then all of a sudden they start treating these as facts and go from there. Including insurrect. Like calling the judges insurrectionist is not an accident.

[Jon Favreau]

The language, apart from being extreme and very fascist sounding, is also like, there's a lot of legalese in there in that he is, I think, when you say, is it a sign of things to come? It's what he wants to have happen. And he is the one who continues to push the envelope within the administration, I think. Right. So remember he floated getting rid of habeas corpus and then he sort of walked. Like, he keeps pushing and pushing and pushing. And I think that's what this is about. Right. Which is every time a judge rules against them, even if it's a Trump judge now it's legal insurrection. We got to go after the judges. Every time a Democrat says, every time there's a protest out there, it's Democrat violence, it's left wing terrorism, all this kind of stuff. So he's trying to set the predicate for much more extreme action.

[Jon Lovett]

Right. And he knows the bounds of what it is rhetorical because he knows the bounds of where he's not getting ahead of Trump. Because actually in one of these interviews, he's responding to a question about whether he should be. If the President should be ignoring or breaking the rulings that judges say. And he goes, no, I'm just saying factually accurate things. I'm just saying. I'm just saying what the facts are. And these are legal insurrections. But that no is pretty important. Right? Like, he's not getting ahead of the President on that.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, notably in the Oval on Monday, Trump called what's happening in Portland insurrection and when asked, said he would invoke the Insurrection act if, quote, people were being killed and courts were holding us up or governors or mayors were holding us up.

[Tommy Vietor]

That's quite a range of activities that.

[Jon Favreau]

Would lead to insurrection. I know. Anyone explain, like, what's going on with the Insurrection act and how it's different than what's been happening so far?

[Jon Lovett]

I mean, look, there's the legal scholars for a long time have said the Insurrection act is ridiculously broad and needs to be reformed. Ah, just missed it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, I wish we'd done that.

[Jon Lovett]

That's a real bummer.

[Jon Favreau]

Again, can. Can't even. The government is closed right now, so couldn't do that. Yeah. Let alone reforming the Insurrection Act.

[Jon Lovett]

Not. Not our biggest obstacle. But that's like when I was. When gay marriage wasn't legal. Like, that wasn't my obstacle to marriage. In the same way. But there are multiple parts of the Insurrection Act. Some of them require state buy in, some of them don't. Some of them are broader than others, some of them are not. I don't want to play down the dangers of the President invoking the Insurrection Act. At the same time, if you go back and look at the warnings of how a president could use the Insurrection act warnings from 2022. 2021. Right. What you find is a description of what Trump has already doing. And it seems like what they like is the idea of signaling like the Insurrection act is some, like, final boss for the libs.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

Right. But it's not. And the other part of this, and Brennan center talks about this, legal scholars talk about this, there is no martial law in this country. Even if there's military in our streets, you still have your constitutional rights. Those do not go away. And the court has held that the idea that the Insurrection act is sort of beyond judicial review is just not true. Like, I'm not saying it's a great day, but as I said, the ruling from that judge on the President deploying National Guard references the ruling that says there are limits on the invocation of the Insurrection act as well. So it's scary, but it's not some get out of court free card for them.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, no, they're just so horny to declare martial law. Like Elon Musk was tweeting over the weekend that we need to Bukele the court system here. And what that means is basically throw out any independent judges, pack the courts with loyalists, and then declare what Bukele called a state of exception. It'd be called a state of emergency here, where they just suspended due process and threw people indiscriminately in jail with no charges, some for life. So that's what Elon Musk is advocating for on Twitter.

[Jon Favreau]

There is a. The difference between what Trump has already been doing with the troops and what he could do theoretically with the Insurrection act is you remember when the troops were here in la, they were only guarding the federal buildings. And if you listen to Miller and some people in the administration, they're saying, well, we're just sending them in to guard the ICE facilities, to guard the ICE facilities, protect the ICE facilities because they're federal buildings. And so what he's trying to do now is basically say he's deploying troops to defend federal buildings and only to be on to defend things. Right. And it's not offensive. It's not. They're not supposed to be able to do law Enforcement activities. Right. The Insurrection act theoretically allows them to do law enforcement activities. Yeah, so that would be the difference. But like you said, while there may not be much courts can do to review the invocation of the Insurrection act, the manner in which it is carried out is definitely reviewable. Meaning that, like, they can't. You can't just suddenly have troops in the streets arresting Americans and, you know, throwing their rights out.

[Jon Lovett]

I'd also just say, like, I've seen that distinction, and maybe that could turn out to be very important. But if you look at the way in which Stephen Miller and others are describing what they're already allowed to do, they've actually left behind the idea that they're just guarding buildings because now they can be there in support of law enforcement operations.

[Jon Favreau]

But they're defending the federal agents as they get attacked.

[Jon Lovett]

Sure, yes, of course.

[Jon Favreau]

That's what I'm saying. That's the, that's the thin reed that they're hanging it.

[Jon Lovett]

Yes. But even still, it's like, okay, they are. They are hiring vast numbers of new ICE agents. That will be the vanguard for all of this. We're talking about a distinction. Okay, the Insurrection act is invoked. You have troops, but without the radicalized ICE agents with them. Is that better? Is that worse? Like, I, like, I do think they think.

[Jon Favreau]

They probably think that the, the political impact of saying Insurrection act is probably worse for them.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. All I'm saying is that, like, we've already gone so far. I don't think anyone knows what it would mean for the president to invoke the Insurrection Act. But we already have troops on the ground, not just to defend federal buildings, but anywhere there's ice, which is everywhere.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, let's talk politics, because back when it was L A and D C, you know, there were all these warnings, this could be good politics for Trump. I remember there was in D.C. there was a lot of, like, Democrats are walking into Donald Trump's trap. He wants to make everything about crime. And here we go. New CBS poll over the weekend shows 58% of voters disapprove of the Guard deployments. They also asked, you know, do you support sending active military to cities? Only 39% said yes. 61% no, including 70% of independents said no. Even one in five Republicans said no. What do you guys think about the politics of all this?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, the, the. His immigration handling was only at 45 approved, 55 disapprove, and the deploying National Guard was 4,258. I mean, overall, his polling is just around this 42% approval number, it hasn't really budged for, like, a decade now.

[Jon Favreau]

You know what I mean?

[Tommy Vietor]

Like, I'm a little, like, I'm a little skeptical. We'll get to this in the shutdown, too. I'm a little skeptical of some of these under the hood numbers. I just, like, think most people aren't paying attention. I don't think this is necessarily, like, I don't think the images of what we're seeing in Chicago of, like, tear gassing cops and brutalizing kids and random people is, like, a good political message for them. I don't.

[Jon Favreau]

I guess there was another number there which is, like, they did most important issue, and crime was only at 9%. And it was, you know, ahead of crime was immigration, then healthcare, then inflation, then economy. The most important. So his whole goal of making this about fighting crime, which he'd started to do at least a little bit in D.C. it just hasn't worked. That's not what people think this is.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. And I do think to Tommy's point, it's like he's kind of been stuck in the same place for a long time. You look at this CBS poll and, you know, most people view Republicans as extreme and strong and Democrats as weak.

[Tommy Vietor]

Number one word.

[Jon Lovett]

Number one word is weak. And so maybe they don't like this, but they don't trust us. And so we think it's bad for him, but maybe it reflects a weakness on us as well. By the same token, every image of Trump and talking about how we're gonna liberate the city of Chicago and Kristi Noem saying, they wouldn't let me do a deployment at a facility that I needed to get into is another moment where Trump is not talking about any issue that people cared about. This poll had 75% of people saying Trump is not focusing on lowering prices enough, which is correct. And, like, a pretty devastating problem for him that is not solved by more attention on these issues, even if this issue is better for him than others.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. In some sense they may. They might not care. At least they're acting like they don't care. Right. That the politics are bad. They're just, like, forging right ahead. I mean, we're still, you know, it's important to debate politics in regard to, like, what Democrats should do. I think in the Trump administration's mind, they're, like, you know, somewhat concerned about the politics. Clearly, they want to win the midterms. But when you get to people like Stephen Miller, he's like, no, I just Want to deploy force. Yeah. Scare people. Like, I don't give a fuck about the politics.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

I really think that's doing this for some of them. That's what they think.

[Jon Lovett]

I also honestly think that they have a kind of deeper and smarter relationship to, like, polling than a lot of Democrats do, because they understand that you can lose on specific issues and specific questions for a long time while building up credibility in a broader way, in a deeper way that's harder to measure. And like, I just. How. How have they not been validated by that over the years? So that, that's, that's what I think is part of this, too.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. It's going to take an election or two for them to at least some of them to register that this is not popular. Last thing before we get to the shutdown. Noem took the time on Friday to join maga's war against Bad Bunny as the super bowl halftime show, saying, ice will be, quote, all over the super bowl and not necessarily seeming to know that people from Puerto Rico, which Bad Bunny is from Puerto Rico, are American. And she shares that with many, many Trump supporters or Trump influencers. They just seem to not know that Puerto Rico is part of America and they think that Bad Bunny is not a US Citizen.

[Jon Lovett]

It's like, on some level, like, they know it intellectually, but they can't feel it in their bones. Right. They know it every time it's in there. They're not stupid. They know it, but they don't feel it feel true.

[Jon Favreau]

There's also. There's a very funny. Shane Gillis comedian His reaction to this. This whole latest culture war thing around Bad Bunny and the super bowl is quite funny.

[Tommy Vietor]

Let's listen, and I'll tell you what I'm mad about. Bad Bunnies doing the halftime show. That's good pissing me, though. Of course. Of course. Who gives a. It's very funny to me that people were upset about that. Every once in a while, the right. The right gets it so wrong with what. They're outraged. Everybody's outraged about everything, obviously. But when it's like, dude, don't lose on this one. I think it's because he doesn't speak any. Speak English. I'm trying to watch football. You. It's like, who does Kristi Noem think attends the Super Bowl? She think it's a bunch of Venezuelan migrants who left everything behind and just, like, made it to the United states. There's like 10 grand sitting around to buy a ticket to go to a. To go to Santa Clara. To Levi's Stadium to go to the game. Like, it's like this. This was all because of a question from that bozo Benny Johnson at tpusa to Kristi Noem. It kind of like, kicked off this manufactured culture war thing. And Benny suggested that the selection of Bad Bunny was clearly a shot at maga. It was a disrespect to MAGA and not the obvious answer, which is money. The NFL wants to grow the audience, so they had a big artist who might expand the number of people who watch the super bowl perform at the Super Bowl. That's so clearly what's happening here. And, like, bigger picture, though, like, it's hard to imagine a more MAGA crowd than those who physically attend the Super Bowl. Super Bowl. It's like football fans, rich people. Like, if you're worried about crimes in that crowd, like, get some dogs that can smell cocaine and then go bust people for solicitations. It's not gonna be like a big ice raid.

[Jon Lovett]

Let's not say things we'll regret.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm not going to Super Bowl.

[Jon Favreau]

The other thing here, too, is clearly a lot of xenophobia and racism in this movement. I don't know if you guys know that, but I will also say there are plenty of. Especially after 24, like, prominent Latino Trump supporters now. And if the person performing at the super bowl was Latino and speak Spanish, but was, like, a big Trump fan, it would have been. You wouldn't hear anything. Bad Bunny has criticized ice. Has criticized Trump. ICE specifically. And so it is. It's like, if you are disloyal in any way, if there's. They cannot broach any criticism, any dissent whatsoever. And if there is, and it's a prominent person, then it is full war against those. They talked to Noam about this, and I think Benny Johnson asked, like, what do you think about the NFL's decision? She says they suck and will win. God will bless us, and we'll stand and be proud of ourselves at the end of the day. And they won't be able to sleep at night because they don't know what to believe.

[Ben Smith]

Jesus.

[Jon Favreau]

They're so weak. We will win and fix it. This is about the NFL.

[Tommy Vietor]

What are you talking about?

[Jon Lovett]

It's also like.

[Jon Favreau]

It's like, what are you fucking.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's just a performer.

[Jon Lovett]

I just. These people cannot.

[Jon Favreau]

God will bless us.

[Jon Lovett]

They cannot internalize fact that they're winners. They're winners because.

[Jon Favreau]

Because it's grievance politics.

[Jon Lovett]

And so that's. You know, they can't actually Just like imagine Christine Oem saying, I'm not a fan. He said some stuff I don't agree with. But the NFL is free to do what it wants. It wants. It's like it's inconceivable for them at this point to like, brook any kind of dissent. Like, that's like you say, you. You say, all right. Like the. The media is. You just got. You got cbs. You know, CBS belongs to you. You have Twitter, you have social media. You have a lot of. You have a lot of the NFL's fucking fans. There's a. There's a halftime show. Is there not one thing for the fucking gays? And they just mute it. It's not gaga, you know, mute.

[Jon Favreau]

You realize. You realize now there's going to be an alternative halftime show on fucking Rumble or something.

[Tommy Vietor]

No, TBSA would. There's some pitch that was going around of, like, Tposa having creed.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, well, I did see that.

[Jon Lovett]

I thought Benny Johnson was going to do something for only the fans. He's going to do an only something for only America fans. Something like that. Only fans of America. Something like that.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm out. I'm out.

[Jon Lovett]

I don't know. I don't get it.

[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Favreau]

So the federal government's still closed, which is somehow only the second biggest story right now because of everything we just talked about. Since Alex and Dan covered it on the Friday pod, Republicans, Democrats in Congress have made no progress on negotiations to open the government, with Republicans maintaining their refusal to discuss Affordable Care act subsidies until the government reopens. The White House has been trying to put pressure on Democrats by continuing to threaten mass layoffs of federal employees, though it's unclear when or if that will actually happen. They're also trying to, like, cut funding for, you know, blue areas of the country, whether it's apparently. Did you see the thing where, like, they cut law enforcement in New York City and then Trump was not aware of this. Yeah. And then Hochul, Governor Hochul called Trump and he was like, again, the filter bubbles, like, oh, I didn't know this. And then, and then he reversed it. So they're trying to cause all this trouble, hurt all these people. It's also unclear, though, whether Trump is not only on the same page as his staff, but on the same page as Republicans in terms of, like, whether they should negotiate with Democrats or are negotiating with Democrats. Here's what Trump said in the Oval on Monday about the shutdown.

[Jon Lovett]

If the vote today fails in the.

[Ad Voice]

Senate, will that trigger layoffs?

[Donald Trump]

It could. At some point. It will.

[Tommy Vietor]

Would you make a deal with them on the ACA subsidies?

[Donald Trump]

Well, if we, if we made the right deal, I'd make a deal.

[Jon Favreau]

Sure.

[Donald Trump]

To see a deal made for great health care. Yeah, I want to see great health. I'm a Republican, but I want to see Health care much more so than the Democrats.

[Ad Voice]

Are you speaking with Democratic leaders?

[Jon Lovett]

What kind of.

[Donald Trump]

Well, I don't want to say that. I don't want to say that, but we are speaking with the Democrats and some very good things could happen with respect to health care.

[Tommy Vietor]

What do you want to bet he was think about Hamas? Just confuse the two.

[Jon Favreau]

This guy confused negotiations to be a fly on the wall in Thune's office or Johnson's office when they saw that clip.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, God fucking damn it.

[Jon Favreau]

Schumer responded by saying it isn't true. The Democrats have been talking to Trump. Jeffrey said the same thing, but Schumer said that if the President is, quote, finally ready to work with Democrats, we'll be at the table. What do you think Trump was doing there? Typical stream of consciousness moment nonsense. Or do you think he might want to negotiate on health care more than Republicans in Congress?

[Jon Lovett]

So, first of all, it's funny to say, what page is he on? He's not on a page. That's the first. He's all over the place. I will say, like that there's been a lot of debate about, like, you know, are Democrats doing better in the shutdown than people expect? There's reasons for optimism, reasons not to have optimism. This was the, the best reason for optimism I've seen, because whatever he's thinking, whatever's going on, he is feeling the politics around a shutdown that is now over healthcare. And he's really helping making that true. He's acknowledging that.

[Jon Favreau]

He said, he goes, I think it's about healthcare. And that was part of it. We didn't get that part. But they first asked him, what do you think? He's like, I think the shutdown's about healthcare.

[Jon Lovett]

Pretty valuable, pretty great. And it's also a reminder that, like, Trump is interested in Trump when that means standing shoulder to shoulder with Republicans in Congress. He will do that. If he views his interests as being different. He will throw that. He will ignore them, damage their position. He doesn't give a fuck. He doesn't have ideological commitments. He just wants a good deal and to seem like a winner and to have as many people behind him as possible. So that's what I took from that. Could it lead to anything? Well, immediately you have Johnson and Thune figuring out how to get out of this, leading to anything, and you have Schumer and Jeffrey saying, no, we're not talking to Trump, but saying they're open to it. So I assume once this conversation, once Trump was done talking, the phone was already on. Had already rung and it had already been walked back. Internally, at least.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, I had sort of the same reaction you did is like, he wants to be the hero of every story. He wants. He does not want a huge cut to ACA subsidies that he thinks would hurt him politically in the midterm. He's not Paul Ryan. Like, this guy hasn't been dreaming of cutting the social safety net since he was at the keg party or whatever that weird quote was from 2012. And so, like, if Schumer and Jeffries could just talk to him directly and try to cut a deal, he would ice out Speaker Johnson in a heartbeat.

[Jon Favreau]

Which is. But to our earlier conversation about his filter bubble and the people around him, the reason I think it's less likely to lead to anything is at what other point is he going to get information that Schumer and Jeffries want to make a deal, that the polling is really bad on healthcare, that it's time for him to do so? Like, Stephen Miller's going to walk in there and all the rest of them.

[Tommy Vietor]

The Breitbart online poll of Twitter users or something.

[Jon Lovett]

Jeffries and Schumer gonna have to do a paper drop like it's North Korea. Like they're trying to get information to.

[Tommy Vietor]

Pyongyang, set up giant speakers.

[Jon Favreau]

You mentioned all the, you know, the back and forth. But, like, who's winning this? What did you guys make of the polling so far? There were some of these questions in the CBS poll. I would characterize the CBS poll results as, like, mixed to positive for Democrats. I think I characterize all the polling like that, but I don't know. What do you guys think?

[Jon Lovett]

Here's what I think. I think the polling is good. If you thought Democrats were going to be blamed the way Republicans were blamed in a previous shutdown, if you didn't come to it with that knowledge, I don't know, you'd feel super great about a poll that. That says Trump, Congressional Republicans and congressional Dems all are around 30% in their approval for other handling a government shutdown like a poll where half the country thinks you're making a mistake. And by the way, only half of Democrats think your position is worth a shutdown. Like, I think that's better than it could be. And I think we're in a better position than we should be. And then Republicans should be at. But it's not like, great.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. I mean, the big takeaway is people don't like the shutdown. They're worried it will hurt the economy. A Big majority is worried it'll hurt the economy. I'm a little skeptical when you start comparing the kind of like, under the hood numbers, like, who do you blame? Because I just think most people, like, don't have an opinion on it. But it's a little better. Like the Democratic Party's rationale is a little better than Republicans. Nine points. By about nine points, people blame Republicans over Democrats. So that's good. But then the, the thing that, like in that poll that would worry me if I was Trump is 75% of voters say you're not focused enough on lowering prices. Like, that's, that's bad.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, we know there are probably, you know, a handful, if not more Senate Democrats who were worried about making this decision, kind of thought they had to do it because the base was mad. I think if you're looking at the polling now, you'd say at the very least it was right to say, I'm not voting for this funding bill. And now that we're in it now, you gotta stick, you gotta stick to it. So there's definitely nothing in this polling that would tell me, if I was a Senate Democrat, to like, cave anytime soon. So it is, I think, going well for them. I still. And look good thing if premiums don't go up for sure. Right. I think at best, you're not gonna get a permanent extension. You're gonna get an extension that is qualified with probably not as generous as it was, and then surely for the time will probably, like, take them right past the midterms. I do have this fear that Democrats will have done the right thing, stand up, help people with healthcare, and then help Trump take it off the table.

[Jon Lovett]

You know, honestly, we've tried losing on issues for a while. Maybe we try winning on issues better than losing. I would say the other thing. I would say, I would. I'll go further than just to say, like, oh, Democrats shouldn't cave. I like you look at this and we talked about briefly earlier, but like, if you ask people, 64% think Democrats are weak and 59% think Republicans are extreme. Health care is an issue right now where if we hold the line, like, we are painting Republicans as extreme and if we cave, we are giving in to the idea that we are weak. If we hold the line, there's an issue where we can prove our bona fide say that we fought for something, Maybe we win, maybe we don't. But I would risk the benefits on policy, plus, like, proving to people that we're willing to fight, take a stand and actually get something for people. Like, I think that is worth taking an issue off the table. Maybe that's bad politics. I don't think anybody knows. But given that nobody knows, wouldn't we rather like have a win than not? Am I wrong?

[Tommy Vietor]

I don't know.

[Jon Favreau]

I agree with you.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. I just don't see a path. Look, I don't see a path to getting a win in this negotiation. I think that's the hard part. There's no end game. That's clear here. And like nut cutting time is coming on October 15, when 1.3 million members of the US military will miss a paycheck. Then November 1 is open enrollment for Obamacare. So there's a bunch of challenging moments where this could really go from a thing that's maybe you heard about on the news or saw on your TikTok to a thing that's messing up your life and making you really mad.

[Jon Favreau]

Coming from the other direction, there's also the fact that these notices from insurance companies are going out too. So it could be, and you've sort of seen this in the polling, that if you talk to the average person about whose fault it is, like all of them, they're not.

[Tommy Vietor]

They suck.

[Jon Favreau]

They all suck. And now the premium increases go out and now the troops aren't getting paid. And the feeling in the public could be they have to negotiate and figure something out, which is probably good for Democrats getting something at that point as opposed to just caving. And then maybe the Republicans, if they're getting some of the blame too, then maybe Trump's like, you know what, guys, just figure it out. Just give him some kind of short extension and let's just call it. Cuz we don't wanna get blamed. They're getting blamed. It's not helping anyone. Yeah, I also, like, so that's the only. That's like my optimistic case. But I also take your point.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I don't think we know what the world's gonna feel like a week from now. I would say right now, like there's a lot of alarms not going off. Like, I am like, Democrats feel like they're on offense, Republicans feel like they're on defense. That is like the feeling when you look at like the stories coming out of the lack of negotiation. You have Mike Johnson saying if a, if a deal comes from the Senate side, we won't take it up. Which is something you have to say to kind of like guard your flank against something coming out of the Senate. Like there's just Trump taking these Questions and saying he's open to a deal. All of that puts Thune and Johnson on defense in a way that like, I think is like, you know, shows Democrats playing a pretty weak hand. Better than you would have thought a week ago. So where will be a week? I have no idea.

[Jon Favreau]

I think, I think they should ask for more at this point. Oh, I mean, having seen, I know I've made this point before, but it's just driving me nuts. Having seen and maybe it's, I'm just crazy, but like having seen the last weekend unfold, like there is a way. I wouldn't even do it with the troops, but it's just like ICE should be able to go about and do their jobs and do immigration enforcement, but like you need warrants no more. Just like raiding fucking apartment buildings. No flashbang grenades and militarized assaults. Like, you could put all this stuff, there's plenty of ICE reform proposals out there you could make. You could put it in a bill and demand that shit. And I get why they have not done that, but it is still really off to me that this is happening and then the funding fight is about healthcare.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, I like, I go, I go, We've gone back and forth a million times, but I like, I, I look at this and it's like, it's a core question, right? Do you want to pick a fight you have a possibility of winning or are you trying to pick a fight you cannot win because you think it's important for the long term? And right now we've, we've. The Democrats chose, right. They chose the other. They chose the fight over something they could win. I, My view right now is play that to the end, try to get a win on healthcare. Let's prove to people we can fight and win. Like you look at what happens with Kimmel, right? There's all these, it's. There was a kind of almost organic protest and had a simple demand. Put Kimmel back. We'll have, we'll get Disney again, right? And it's a win. And it shows people that we're a political force.

[Jon Favreau]

We got Kimmel.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, it's small. I know.

[Jon Favreau]

The monologue continues.

[Jon Lovett]

I know. But in the face of kind of like, kind of. I know. It's just sort of like we have to be a political force that has power and leverage. And that does mean, like we're not just casting about for a kind of a years long fight. Like we're gonna find a hinge and we're gonna use it. And like to me, we've chosen that already, so let's play it out.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, yeah, that's true. The other way that this could end that I feel like is being under discussed is if it keeps going and going and going, they just, they change the rules and get rid of the filibuster, which. Yeah, they could do that again. Make my day. Yeah, yeah, go for it.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

Cause you know what? We're never getting 60 votes in the Senate as long as we're living.

[Jon Lovett]

Well, they've already. They've already.

[Jon Favreau]

If we ever wanna, if we ever take power again, we ever wanna pass anything, we're gonna need to get rid of the filibuster, so. So might as well do it for us.

[Jon Lovett]

They're already eroding it bit by bit while claiming it's still there.

[Jon Favreau]

Yes.

[Jon Lovett]

Anyway.

[Jon Favreau]

For sure. So the only way to start making real progress here is winning the house back in 2026. That's at least the, that would be at least the start of progress. And the first chance we get to help make that happen is actually just a month from now. Because here in California, we'll be voting on only one ballot measure in the 2025 off year elections. Prop 50, which is Governor Newsom's initiative to temporarily suspend our nonpartisan congressional map so that Democrats can partially neutralize the partisan gerrymandering Trump ordered in states like Texas and Missouri to pick up more Republican seats. Ballots are already in the mail. Some of you, if you're in California, may have gotten yours already. Or if you're a registered voter in California, and the drop boxes to return those ballots open today, October 7th. When you're hearing this podcast early in person, voting starts on October 25th. What have you guys been seeing? How optimistic are you feeling?

[Tommy Vietor]

I mean, the Democrats you've talked about, the kind of Gavin orbit, they feel like they're winning the argument and that they're up, but they're very worried about voter suppression. That could be like Trump messing with the Postmaster General about mail in ballots. It could be intimidation at the voting booths. The real, like X factor is there's a lawsuit in court right now challenging Texas's plan to redraw the maps, which is the reason Gavin is doing this in the first place. The thing, there's a scenario where the plaintiffs win a first judgment in that lawsuit that will almost certainly be overturned, but kind of complicates the argument because it looks like maybe Texas won't go forward during the period where Californians are voting. So that's all no one pays attention to.

[Jon Favreau]

That ruling.

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, yeah, it's just a way of saying call my bluff. If that happens, just know that like it's almost certainly Texas is going to happen. It's going to happen. We might win like one step in the process, but we're going to lose long term. So we need to do this in California. So everyone vote yes on Prop 50, get your ballots and do it soon.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, and I would, yes, the polling has been reassuring, but also California is a big place that's hard to pull and I like just worry about money coming in at the end.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, a bunch of like a dark.

[Jon Lovett]

Money, scary ton of mailers coming in.

[Jon Favreau]

So I just saw a new coefficient poll. 54% of California voters support the Prop 50, 36% opposed. And the all the ad spending is having an effect too. 51% said they were very familiar with Prop 50 and obviously Democrats currently have a big spending edge. That's good news. But also again, it is a talk about not being able to model an electorate, an off year election where there's no statewide races, where there's, you know, candidates running for stuff. So you just have. And not even other ballot measures. So you have one ballot measurement. So you have to remember, okay, the ballot's coming, I gotta fill it out. What is Prop 50? It's just, you know, tell your friends if you live in California, tell your friends, make sure you do it. Put on your calendar and tell at least five people in your life who live in California that this is coming. Because I think it's really, really important. One more thing. The big focus of the Prop 50 campaign is relational organizing. Basically just talking to friends and people in your network about the issue, why they need to get out and vote for it. You can get all the info you need [e-mail] Prop 50 Tommy, I understand that you're hosting a VSA event next Wednesday the 15th, where everyone's gonna get together and reach out to their networks together.

[Jon Lovett]

And that's in the action hub.

[Tommy Vietor]

We're all gonna have relations. Oh wait, this is people waiting for. Stick with it, stick with it, stick around.

[Jon Favreau]

You'll be the end.

[Tommy Vietor]

You'll find, you'll understand.

[Jon Favreau]

So you're gonna get together and reach out to your networks.

[Tommy Vietor]

We're gonna reach out to our network.

[Jon Favreau]

What a cool way to talk about it. What a cool. That's cool. That's all ready? On the count of three, we're gonna reach out to our networks. Tough. So what we're gonna do, we're gonna.

[Tommy Vietor]

Hop on A livestream. We're gonna have some fun. We're gonna hang out, we're gonna make it a good time. We're gonna text our friends in California to make sure they're voting yes on Prop 50. We know that. Friends, family, the best messengers.

[Jon Lovett]

And you're doing this for the fans.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

And then only the fans. Only the fans.

[Jon Lovett]

And the cam will be on.

[Tommy Vietor]

We're going to make sure everyone understands the stakes involved here. It'll be important.

[Jon Lovett]

What are you gonna wear on your feet, you think?

[Tommy Vietor]

Sandals?

[Jon Lovett]

Oh, okay. Shoes. That's exciting.

[Tommy Vietor]

Can I quickly plug my Riyadh Comedy Festival appearance too? Oh, yeah, Headlining Khashoggi night.

[Jon Lovett]

It's good money. It's good money. Well, yeah, it's the anniversary.

[Tommy Vietor]

Anyway, jump on the Prop 50 livestream. It will be votesavemerica.com Prop 50. It's really important. We got to do this. So reach out to your friends.

[Jon Favreau]

Where are we on whether we have the chance to sort of counter Texas and other states?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yes. So I talked to our buddy Brian Tyler Cohen about all this because he is way deep on all things redistricting and subscribe to Brian's YouTube if you want to learn more. So the states that are screwing us right now, Texas and Missouri, if California redistricts to Indiana, Ohio and Florida are preparing to screw us. So get excited for that. We then Democrats could retaliate in Illinois and Maryland and then longer term New York and make some changes. But that wouldn't go into place until 2028. Then if we win the governor's seats in Virginia and New Jersey, maybe we can do make some gains there. And then there's the states that are kind of hoping this conversation goes away are Colorado, Oregon and Washington. The Dem governors, they're just like, like won't step up seemingly. So that's the state of play. I don't think it's a net benefit for us if all those Republican states go though.

[Jon Lovett]

Also one. One issue that's happening in California too is look, redistricting is great, but also states like California have been losing population to Texas and Florida and others. And we can't redistrict our way out of California not building enough affordable housing. And so I'm very glad Gavin is pursuing Prop 50. He has not yet signed as of this recording on Monday night, SB79, which will allow people to build more housing near transit and help address our housing crisis. So if you are hearing this and you think Evan Newsom should sign it, I would suggest posting about it or giving him a call. Because I do think it matters here in the home stretch.

[Jon Favreau]

What's going on there. I haven't been following why there's been a pause and he hasn't signed it.

[Jon Lovett]

So there's a lot of pressure, especially from la, especially from our Mayor, Karen Bass, who wants Newsom to veto it. She claims she's for affordable housing and we've got to build more housing, but this law will go too far and it doesn't allow for historical buildings and all these exceptions. Los Angeles currently is not even on track to build half of the housing we've promised to build the state. It's actually about a third. We said we'd build 456,000 units. We are nowhere near that. We are just completely failing. I'll get the stats slightly wrong, but we've seen the lowest number of housing starts and construction in Los Angeles in more than a decade. We're just. The city is failing. It does not deserve the trust and. But he's under a lot of pressure. Look, I think Prop 50 fighting Trump, those are unifying and galvanizing issues. This is a slightly divided issue because this is about taking on parts of your own coalition and saying, you know what, I get that there are problems. It's not a perfect law, but we got it.

[Jon Favreau]

Klein, Derek Thompson.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah, right.

[Tommy Vietor]

All the abundance bros. All the fascists.

[Jon Lovett]

But like, yeah, there are Democratic interests that want this to be vetoed. And so the goal is not just for him to sign it. I believe he will sign it. Is to sign it unequivocally without any kind of using bureaucracy to limit it in any way. And that, to me, is what is important. And it's actually, I think, an important test for him because, like, oh, great, you're tough when you're fighting Trump. Like, we need somebody that doesn't just want to fight Trump, but understands that Democrats have to be willing to take on our own to actually do hard governing.

[Jon Favreau]

You might think it's progressive to make sure that every person can have a roof over their head in this country, but I think it's progressive to keep those historic buildings preserved just right and maybe have just a little bit bigger yard.

[Tommy Vietor]

First they came for the historic building.

[Jon Favreau]

And to make sure just a little extra yard. And I just don't want a tall building next to my train tracks. Cause then I'm just. It's just too much.

[Jon Lovett]

Historic parking lots. You gotta preserve these historic parks.

[Jon Favreau]

You know what's progressive? A beautiful view. It's progressive.

[Jon Lovett]

It's been infuriating and like. And Karen Bass, fucking Nimby Karen Bass, who has, like. Like, I would say, like, a mixed record on housing. She signed some good eos, then she watered them down. Like she's done some stuff. Some of the best. Some of. Some of the building that is happening in Los Angeles is beyond some of these affordable housing executive orders she signed. But still, like, this is such an abdication. The city council, most of them, Nithya and others did vote against the city council, which is great, but they are just completely abdicating their responsibility and hoping somebody else solves it. This is the way to solve it. He has to fucking sign the thing.

[Jon Favreau]

So that and also Prop 50. And if you want more info about Prop 50 votesaveamerica.com Prop 50, you go get all kinds of information that'll help you go, you know, try to get as many friends as possible voting the same way. Okay. After the break, you'll hear Tommy's conversation with Ben Smith about Barry Weiss taking over CBS News and lots more. Two things before we get to that. You may have heard that Crooked Con sold out faster than we ever expected. So, big news. We decided to move to a bigger location. That means more panels, more guests, and more tickets. The new venue is the Ronald Reagan building. You know, I don't think it's.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's honestly a dream for me to be in the Reagan Building.

[Jon Favreau]

I feel like it would have been funnier 10 years ago to have us in the Reagan building now. The Reagan Building seems like a potential natural ally for this movement.

[Tommy Vietor]

You know, Fort in a storm.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Jon Lovett]

Win one for the Gipper.

[Jon Favreau]

The most scorching opinion about Trump so far just came from a Reagan judge. Judge appointed by Reagan last week. So, yeah, of course. Makes sense. Your favorite Crooked podcast host will be there. Plus Ruben Gallego, Andy Beshear, Janelle Bynum, Sara McBride, Yasiman Ansari, Anderson Clayton, Sarah Longwell, Hasan Piker, Maurice Mitchell. Lots more. The full list is [e-mail] we'll be announcing even more great guests soon. We're adding a Vote Save America Action Hub, a space where our partner groups will be hanging out and focusing on activism so you can leave with the tools you need.

[Tommy Vietor]

Action Hub.

[Jon Lovett]

Action Hub. What kind of action?

[Tommy Vietor]

Doing karate. I don't think it's gonna be. What are you thinking?

[Jon Lovett]

Oh, I was talking about intercourse, Tommy. I was talking about fucking. That's what I was saying.

[Jon Favreau]

You know where the Action Hub's gonna be? His hotel room?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, those pants.

[Jon Favreau]

That's where the Action Hub and you know Where? It's what it says right here. This is what it says right here. You can leave with the tools you need to fight democracy.

[Jon Lovett]

That's right.

[Jon Favreau]

There you go. Head to crookedcon.com before this last batch of tickets disappears and we'll see you at the action hub on November 7th in DC. Also, become a friend of the pod. It's important.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's fine.

[Jon Favreau]

Independent media is more important than ever right now. You know, Tommy's talking to Ben Smith about Bari Weiss and CBS and all the ways that corporate media has let us down. Here we are, Independent media. Help support us for the month of October only. You'll get 20% off when you subscribe for a full year.

[Tommy Vietor]

Is that a spooky sale?

[Jon Favreau]

What's the deal?

[Jon Lovett]

A deal so good is spooky good.

[Jon Favreau]

That's a good one. Check out Love or Leave it ad free. Imagine all the extra jokes you'll hear. Monthly subscribers can upgrade and annual subscribers can renew at the discounted rate. You'll get all your crooked pods ad free access to our Discord community bonus content like Polar Coaster with Dan Pfeiffer designed to help you make sense of the midterms. The 20% discount is this month only. Head to cricket.com friends to sign up or upgrade.

[Tommy Vietor]

Now you play Polar Coaster at the Action Hub. You know.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah. Hey.

[Jon Favreau]

And Love it. You have an announcement?

[Jon Lovett]

Yes. There is a new series that just launched today on the Love it or Leave it feed. It is called for legal reasons. Love it or Leave it presents Colon Bravo America. I'm interviewing some of the biggest icons in reality TV. That starts with Dr. Terry Dubrow of Botched and the Swan and Real Housewives of Orange County. I've obviously been turning off my brain at night and watching Bravo and other reality shows. And I do think you really can't understand politics in this moment unless you understand the world of these shows and why it is more important to be interesting and hated than boring and good and any insurrections? None so far. But so Dubrow is really interesting and he talks about how the parts of filming Bravo shows, including Real Housewives, that he fucking hates. And he's pretty shockingly honest about his take on some of the Real Housewives, which was interesting. But more than that, like this series is about figuring out reality tv, how it changed TV and then how it changed our culture and then how it changed politics. It actually, one of the reasons I wanted to do it is because when we Talked to Sarah McBride, remember, she talked about feeling as though these Republicans want to be on a Bravo show. And obviously Trump is a reality star. I'm also one as well. Famously, of course, Shine Bright stars.

[Tommy Vietor]

Feel like I'm stretching the term.

[Jon Lovett]

Some stars guest star. Also featuring we have Terry Dubrow, who is great. I talked to Dorinda Medley. I talked to Parvati Shallow, who gave me some tips about how to do better on Survivor for next time.

[Tommy Vietor]

Bad tips.

[Jon Lovett]

And there'll be many others we haven't. Some we haven't announced. Well, I can't do worse. I can't do fucking worse. It's on the love it or leave it feed right now. I am very excited about these conversations. They were every single time we finished one. Like, the producer and I have been like, amazed by what we've been hearing from some of these people about what it's like to be on these shows and what they've learned. And so please check it out.

[Jon Favreau]

Cool, cool, foreign.

[Tommy Vietor]

This episode is sponsored by better help. October 10th is World Mental Health Day, and this year we're saying thank you, therapists. Better Help therapists have helped over 5 million people worldwide on their mental health journeys. That's millions of stories, millions of journeys. And behind everyone is a therapist who showed up, listened, and helped someone take a step forward. Moments in therapy, like the right question, a safe space to cry, or a small win can change lives. This World mental health day, BetterHelp is honoring those connections and the therapists who make them possible while showing them how easy it is to get guidance from a licensed therapist online with BetterHelp. Look, we all wish that Donald Trump had seen a therapist just one time. Oh, it would have saved us, boy, so much trouble.

[Jon Favreau]

We might not be here.

[Tommy Vietor]

You probably wouldn't be friends. A rich guy invested in the S and p in the 70s or in the 1970s and was richer than you ever could have imagined. But. But anyway, we live in this reality. So that's why you need a therapist. Better Help therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US BetterHelp does the initial matching work so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences and their 10 years of experience. An industry leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored rex. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform and it works with an average rating of 4.9 out of 5 for a live session based on 1.7 million client reviews. This World Mental Health Day, we're celebrating the therapists who've helped millions of people take a step forward. If you're ready to find the right therapist for you, BetterHelp can help you start that journey. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com PSA. That's betterhelp help.com/psa. Tonight's meal, tilapia surprise with boiled cabbage. Begin cooking steps 1 through 50 now.

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[Tommy Vietor]

My guest today is the editor in chief of Semaphore and the co host of the excellent Mixed Signals podcast. He's also a man who tends to be on the bleeding edge of changes in the media business. Ben Smith, great to see you.

[Ben Smith]

Thank you for having me, Tommy.

[Tommy Vietor]

So on Monday, Bari Weiss was named the new editor in chief of CBS News and Paramount, CBS's parent company, bought her startup, the Free Press for $150 million in cash and stock. My first question to you is the question that everyone is asking Ben, which was how much do we think Barry cleared off this deal? Do you know what her ownership stake was by the end here?

[Ben Smith]

You know, I don't. But I would say that the nature of these deals is usually they don't just say here's a pile of money buy. They say if you work really hard for us for a period of 4, 5, 10 years, we will, you know, we will compensate you gradually in stock. So like I would say, whatever the actual terms of the deal, I would think this is a pretty long term arrangement. Like I think Barry Weiss will be there for a long time.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

It struck me as an aqua hire, which is basically they're purchasing her entire company to get her to work there. You're right, she probably did have a long earn out but I bet she did okay off it.

[Ben Smith]

Yes. Next time you see her, you should make her buy dinner.

[Tommy Vietor]

Okay. That's what I will do. I've never met her, but I will do that. So help me understand why this hire makes sense for cbs. As far as I know, Barry Weiss has no TV news experience. Her print experience was More on the opinion side, I find CBS News to be kind of like the textbook example of the, the just the facts, ma', am, kind of old school journalism. But she has been better known, I think recently at least for, for more activism, for being kind of anti what she views as woke, for being a full throated defender of Israeli government policies. So why do you think CBS decided she's the person we need?

[Ben Smith]

Well, I would say there's, there's a couple of different things here. One is, I don't know if you, you are a regular viewer of the CBS Evening News. If you are, you are very unusual for our age group. But like, you know, CBS is a broadcast television network that for complicated reasons kind of missed out on cable and then kind of also missed out on digital. So this is the Titanic, like, well, after it has hit the iceberg in a place that has been in a kind of state of real crisis and decline for many, many years. So it's not like, I mean, so I don't really the idea that like these guys were just doing fine and these maniacs are coming and changing everything, what are they doing? It's ridiculous. I mean, I think CBS is sort of a poster child for a company that really failed to figure out the digital transition, lost most of its value and is getting swallowed by some billionaire's kid, which is at a discount as a result. And that's true of CBS News, which is a tiny, tiny portion of a bigger company that is now called Paramount that includes all sorts of other things that used to have a lot of value. And Sherry Redstone, who owned it, managed it gradually downward over a period of years. And so in the new ownership, David Ellison, whose dad is one of the richest guys in the world, Larry Ellison, I think both seem authentically to share Barry's politics, which are, I don't know if you'd call them center right. They're eclectic. They're very pro Israel, very, very upset about the direction the media took in the last few years. And I think Allison obviously kind of shares those to some degree. And CBS News, by the way, is a single digit percentage of the business of cbs, which is mostly the movie business. And Ellison has spent his career in the movie business. And then people say the News is like 4% of the revenue and 95% of the headaches of these businesses. But sure, this is one of the first big splashy things he's doing, is bringing in Barry as the editor in chief, not the president, a new title as editor in chief of CBS News to Direct the editorial back to the center. That probably is what the owners want in terms of the, in terms of their own political views, although that's not going to like rescue a dying broadcast operation. It's also comes at a time Donald Trump, you know, loves to rage against these networks, is very focused on CBS and others and feels that they, you know, treated him unfairly, already extracted a big settlement for them. And I think this is a company that's looking for another wave of regulatory approval to buy WarnerMedia. And, and doing things that Donald Trump likes seems like a pretty good way to get rev regulatory approval. And honestly, I think if you told one of these companies they could pay 100, 150 million bucks to make a big deal go through faster, they probably would.

[Jon Lovett]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like I'm with you on the, the problem and, and certainly wasn't suggesting that, like cbs, everything was going perfectly. I guess I'm just still not there on the solution. Like, do we. Is Barry Weiss viewed as like a Trump whisperer that can get, you know, deals through the FCC or whatever?

[Jon Lovett]

Right.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like, a lot of the reporting is focused on kind of coverage about Israel generally being a big point of tension between the new ownership and let's say 60 minutes. But I just can't tell how central this is to the acquisition itself.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah, there's a lot of, there are a lot of different things going on here, and I think that's what you're seeing, which is CBS has one problem, which is its business is collapsing. That's not because of where it stands on Israel. They're CBS News and in fact isn't going to be fixed by tweaking their political stance because it has to do with the fact that they're a broadcast television network with a massive cost structure. There's also people, I think there is also a sense of it will please Donald Trump to stick it to the people at cbs, whoever they are. And that probably is a good way to. If it seems like they're giving some kind of human sacrifice to Donald Trump in order to get regulatory approval. I don't know. In the cynical world of big media, that seems like a decent idea.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. Do you have a prediction for how it's going to go? Any sense of how this is being received internally?

[Ben Smith]

I mean, cbs, it's like, I don't know if you've ever worked at one of these institutions which has been rocked by scandal after scandal and leak after leak for longer than you've been alive, but everything always goes badly there. The only story, and I think People underestimate the extent to which, like, yeah, she is being given the job, maybe not as captain of the Titanic, but as first mate post iceberg. And like, that's a very, very challenging situation. And I don't know, we should all be rooting for them to succeed because I think the most natural thing here is that they cease to exist. That's the course that they've been on for a long time.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. No, look, I want CBS News to succeed generally. I really had not thought of it that way. This is being first mate or captain on an iceberg or on a ship hitting an iceberg. That does suck. When Bari Weiss quit the New York Times, she cited bullying by colleagues. She said the New York Times had become an illiberal environment. She said there was a, quote, civil war inside the New York Times between the mostly young wokes and the mostly 40 plus liberals. You worked at the New York Times from 2020 to 2022. Was it illiberal? Was Michael Barbaro bullying you in the lunchroom? Like, what was the scene there?

[Ben Smith]

So it was a. Look, there was no lunchroom. It was all slack, which did make it, God, yeah, Certainly totally insane. And, you know, I guess I, you know, knew Barry there at the time and I think didn't. Maybe I didn't take these things as personal issue. Like, I think, you know, people react to things differently. But I do think if, you know, the slack became some rough equivalent of Twitter. And I do think the culture was more dominated by younger people who were more comfortable on social media and sometimes really did take on some of the crazier features of social media. Like there was a 2,000 person. I wasn't allowed in most of the slack because I wrote about the New York Times. So, like, I got tossed out of slacks. And Taylor Lorenz created a slack called Ben Chat where people could come talk to me. But there was one giant slack with everybody in it, and that was the one where when James Bennett. There was a controversy that I feel like we don't need to revisit involving the opinion editor. But people were reacting. You can react with emojis and people were reacting with guillotines.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, boy.

[Ben Smith]

Like intended ironically, perhaps, but not. I would not say that is collegial. And when I, at some point somebody complained to the executive of Dean Baquet that my being in the slack made people unsafe because I might write about it. Okay? And he. I thought quite reasonably, and this is a sense of like, I don't think it was not totally homogenous.

[Jon Favreau]

Culture.

[Ben Smith]

He told them, that's ridiculous. This is a Slack with 2,000 people in it. Of course it's going to leak. But yeah, I mean, I guess I think that maybe I don't have as think it was quite that straightforward, but certainly there was the kind of like left wing political waves and social waves swept through there, swept through all of society. And I do think it was pretty. Yeah, I think it was. I think the management has spent the last couple years pushing that back.

[Tommy Vietor]

It's interesting. I mean, look, what I'm taking, what I'm inferring from your very delicate answer is that you saw some illiberalness, you saw some cruelty maybe in this, like, it's just interesting with some people that radicalizes them. And then there's people like Matthew Iglesias over at Vox who kind of just tweets through the most vicious attacks on a daily basis. It seems impervious to. It doesn't, you know, kind of just like does his thing regardless and just has a very different reaction.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah. And I think I. You're probably, I think if you've spent a lot of your career being attacked by strangers on the Internet, as I have, you develop a kind of pathologically thick skin to it. But I don't think you can actually expect other people to act that way. That's not normal. If your colleagues are being mean to you, probably you hate it and you're gonna quit. I don't think that's an unreasonable reaction.

[Tommy Vietor]

No, I don't think it is either. I'm a huge baby and I've had exchanges on Twitter ruin an entire weekend. And my wife looking at me like, why aren't you parenting our children right now? Are you really in a fight about the JCPOA with someone with a Twitter egg? And I'm like, yeah, that's actually who I am. That's who you married. So I'm sorry about that.

[Ben Smith]

But I do think, like the question you asked for, what is the. I think what this means, like, what is Barry's role at CBS means, like very, I don't think it's decided. I think it's very open to interpretation. I think it a lot depends in particular on how they decide to cover Donald Trump. Because, I mean, I talked to somebody who was involved in the deal and who was very aware that, like, they're just now dealing with this shadow of this sense that, well, like, oh, they've made some secret corrupt deal with the president in exchange for, you know, to get regulatory approval for their real business. Which is the movie business, the entertainment business, in exchange for favorable coverage on this tiny little, you know, news thing that they have to own. And how do you deal, like. And I asked them, like, well, how do you, how do you deal with that impression? And they said, well, we're just gonna have to have to cover Trump, really. We have to be really tough and adversarial and do great journalism that the White House doesn't like when that's fair. And I think that, you know, that is ultimately the test.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, well, you're right. And we should not prejudge her tenure there. It is challenging, though, because it comes in the wake of some major depart departures at 60 minutes and a pretty high profile dust up over, you know, that show, feeling like they were being censored by corporate execs and then the lawsuit and caving to Trump. So a tough, challenging time to go into that job. Like you said earlier, you have a great column out this week in Semaphore about Donald Trump's information filter and sort of information bubble. Can you explain how Trump's information diet has changed from the first term to today and why that might have some of his supporters a little worse?

[Ben Smith]

Yeah, I mean, one thing about the White House and you worked there and you know this, is that just inevitably the President is a little bit a prisoner of the building, a prisoner of what kind of information he's getting, who's talking to him. Like Eisenhower, Nixon's aides referred to as the Berlin Wall because they were German, Haldeman and Ehrlichman, and they wouldn't let nibody through. But in any case, Trump in his first term, like almost uniquely among presidents, like totally busted out of that and was just on Twitter engaging everyone. He was reading the rage bait from you, he was soaking up the adulation from his fans, but he was just seeing the same stuff. Everybody else was on Twitter. And now I think actually sort of like everybody else, he's retreated into much more comfortable spaces. In his case, Truth Social, where he sometimes goes on these sprees of retrofitting really weird memes and where he posts stuff and where he sees adulations. And he's also, he does watch tv, mostly Fox. Fox is more pro Trump, more sort of consistently pro Trump than it was in his first term. There's also these other right wing networks he can watch. He reads the papers, he reads the New York Post and other papers. But I think people around him, both people who like him and don't like him, have started to think like oh, maybe he's not seeing everything. There was this odd instance where he had talked to the governor of Oregon and he got off the, the phone and said, yeah, she said one thing to me. And I've been seeing this other thing on TV and hearing things from my staff and I'm not really sure what's going on. And then I saw the other day that Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, I guess, told him that the federal government had cut off funding to New York. And that was news to him. And I think in some sense the biggest question is what is he hearing about the economy and how good is the information he's getting? And I think that's, I mean, I don't really know, but basically the core of this situation is that there's an aide named Natalie Harp who, who follows him around with an iPad, and that people who really, really, really want to get his attention, particularly in the conservative movement, have her number and text her things and hope that she will go, then play the video to him. And that's like the key, key gatekeeping function.

[Tommy Vietor]

God help us all. I mean, yeah, he tweeted this video the other weekend or other week about med beds. I don't know if you tracked this controversy. It's this like QAnon thing. It's the.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah, I always assumed that's why you looked so ageless, Tommy.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, that's. It's a filter. It's Barbara Walters filter. Med beds, basically, they think it's alien technology that's being hidden by elites that could cure every disease. All of a sudden Donald Trump tweets or truths this AI video that AI renders his own voice of a made up technology. And I would just kill for some deep reporting into how on earth that actually happens. How does that go from creation to his feed to shared.

[Ben Smith]

I think he's just on truth social, seeing memes. And if you look through, he's retruthing some like really terrible memes that like, I think he's just seeing like, oh, here's somebody who likes me saying something nice. And I assume that's what the med bed thing was. It seemed vaguely positive. It said that he, he was giving everybody special med bed cards. So, like, but I don't know, when you were in the White House, did you, like, how did you think about kind of controlling President Obama's access to information?

[Tommy Vietor]

Well, he famously kept his BlackBerry. Right. That was sort of an early battle he won to get information. And I think he certainly would go on at night and whenever a Mean, David Brooks column would post. Dan Pfeiffer would get an email being like, we need to deal with this or whatever. The other way he spent a lot of time was playing Words with Friends with Reggie Love and other people. So he had his own ways sort of getting around us. But you're right, like, when you're President of the United States, all your jokes are funny. Everything you say is brilliant. People stand up when you walk in the room. So that's gotta just kind of fuck with. With your thinking, whether you're Donald Trump or anybody else.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah. And I do think in a weird way, this is a return to a more traditional kind of presidency where he is trapped in an information bubble.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And probably more so than before. Right. Given the security challenges that come with multiple assassination attempts. But didn't he used to hate watch TV all the time? Like, I feel like he used to routinely tweet about Morning Joe.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah, he used to hate watch more because I think there was like, it was just Fox and then a bunch of stuff he hated, but now he's got OAN and Newsmax and all sorts of stuff on social that, that he can watch. I mean, once in a while, like, like a Democratic senator, like, made their way onto Fox yesterday morning and he freaked out about it on Truth Social and demanded that they not let Brian Schatz back on there to lie about him. But. But I think that actually almost is an indication of what you said, that, like, he's not. He's not rage tweeting the sort of, he's not hate watching anymore, which, and in a way, like, I mean, I guess it seems like, like he is all of us. Right? Like, like in 20. The sort of experience of the media between 2015 and 2020 was that this social media machines were so good at finding the worst thing that the people you dislike had said and just like shoving it in your face. And the new TikTok world is that, like, no, you just get like, pleasing stuff that affirms your prejudices all day.

[Tommy Vietor]

That's right. Yeah. The biggest surprise in your piece, by the way, was seeing Laura Loomer, of all people, kind of talking about Trump's information diet and sounding like a voice of reason.

[Ben Smith]

She's very concerned.

[Tommy Vietor]

Is she really okay? For those who don't know, Laura Loomer is she's like a far right nut, in my opinion. She once tweeted like an applauding emoji over an article about 2,000 migrants dying while trying to cross from North Africa to Europe. She Chained herself to the Twitter office door in New York while wearing a yellow Star of David to compare herself to the treatment of Jews in the Holocaust. My point being, doesn't always, you know, sometimes seems like she's got a screw loose, but she seemed reasonable there. How did that come about?

[Ben Smith]

I think she is somebody who thinks a lot about how you get information to Donald Trump and has seen herself boxed out a bit by White House staff, although she finds her ways to get to him directly. But the one thing is, it used to be that influencers, right wing influencers who had a really good fastball could just get in front of him by tweeting stuff and getting retweeted and going viral. And now you have to be like the only two people I think can really do it just because by just absolute intensity and velocity and saying such intense stuff on social media are her and the kind of MAGA legal figure, Mike Davis, who denounces judges very heatedly. And I think that stuff makes its way to him. But I think the rest of the sort of right wing Twitter sphere is really having trouble kind of making their way into Trump's personal consciousness.

[Tommy Vietor]

Interesting bigger picture. Like a couple weeks ago, we were all talking about ABC News and Jimmy Kimmel. Kimmel got pulled off the air and then FCC Chairman Brendan Carr made all these threats that he would hurt the network. Or we could do the easy way or the hard way if Kimmel wasn't punished for comments he made about Charlie Kirk. Kimmel's now back on the air. But Trump threatened to sue ABC again. Now that the dust has settled a little bit, what do you think the impact was of that whole ordeal? Are networks rethinking things or is just.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know.

[Ben Smith]

I mean, I just think that the big kind of corporate media executives are really wary of angering the President and they're thinking about it all the time. And it's a matter. It's not that they wouldn't ever do anything, publish an accurate, important story that didn't make the White House happy, but it's that they're thinking about picking your battles. And this really is familiar to any journalist who's worked in complicated places. I mean, I think, for instance, if you're major, I once talked to somebody who'd been a correspondent for a great newspaper in Tehran, and you kind of know at some point you're going to get booted because you're going to write a story that angers the regime. But so you think like, all right, is this one worth it? This is kind of a dumb story about somebody's family being corrupt. Like, let's skip this one. Let's wait for the one that really gets them. And so in situations like this, you just start to pick your battles and decide, look, we're not going to do this story about the President's family. It's going to annoy him. Let's wait till we. And it does change the shape of the coverage and means that there's less criticism. I think the other thing that happened at ABC though, was that that I think you saw that there are these other stakeholders in these companies who they have to deal with too. And in particular for abc, it's a list actors and directors and, or for Disney. And I think you saw that, you saw. I don't think it ever really was a public protest, but people clearly called up Bob Iger and said, hey, we're going to start pulling movies. We're going to refuse, we're going to publicly refuse to work with you. And you know, these media companies are very, very, very dependent on talent. And talent does have leverage.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, you got to imagine Iger was getting some, some rude texts from some real A listers over that weekend.

[Ben Smith]

Seems like it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Seems like it, yeah. Final question for you. I just don't think Democrats have fully internalized kind of what the new media landscape looks like. We have, you know, Barry Weiss leading CBS News, tbd, if that matters or not. But Elon Musk owns Twitter. A group of Trump allies are going to run TikTok. Fox News is not just the dominant cable player, but like the dominant news channel, period. And then I think conservatives, I mean, tell me if you disagree, but they seem to be dominating the independ, the media world and the podcast charts. There's not necessarily a question there, it's more just like an observation of how grim things seem for progressives.

[Ben Smith]

Well, I actually think that, I mean, if you look at the sort of new media charts, you're starting to see left wing voices dominate more. I mean, like Midas is I think, often the biggest channel on YouTube. And it follows to some degree where is the most engagement, where's the most energy? And I think a lot of these, particularly a lot of the really kind of independent podcast sphere is really built around this profound suspicion of power, but also of government and of truth and of anything. And you saw with the Epstein stuff that there's just this intense tendency to eat their own. But no, I think there's a real kind of conservative control of the mainstream media now. And it's not exactly MAGA conservatives. I think people like David Ellison and Jeff Bezos are kind of, I don't really know what their politics are kind of like center, I guess it's what you'd call center, right? And probably, but I don't really know. But I think that the thing that is actually, I think there are two things. One is that you have people with right of center views owning and running some of these media properties. But I think the much more important thing is you have people who are scared of the government and of Trump making decisions.

[Tommy Vietor]

Definitely lots of scared people making decisions for financial reasons. Ben, thank you for joining the show. Everyone should check out Semaphore and subscribe to the Knicks segment Signal podcast. It's excellent. Who do you guys have recently? You had the new head of msnbc.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah, we had the new CEO of Versant, which owns msnbc, and he spent the whole time talking about how he wants to buy crooked. So watch out everybody.

[Tommy Vietor]

Come on in. I'll be your Barry sir. Whatever it takes. Ben, thank you again. Great to talk to you.

[Ben Smith]

Yeah, good talking to you.

[Jon Favreau]

That's our show for today. Thanks to Ben Smith for coming on. Dan and I will be back with a new show on Friday. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricut.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our first Our producers are David Toledo, Emma Ilick Frank and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrienne Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Kanter is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Hayley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Kirill Pelaviev, David Toles and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

[Tommy Vietor]

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[Ben Smith]

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[Ben Smith]

So go ahead, try them on. Let us surprise you.

[Jon Favreau]

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