Trump's Wars Are Bankrupting America

Summary

Pod Save America: "Trump's Wars Are Bankrupting America" (July 24, 2026)

Main Theme & Purpose

In this episode, Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer break down a volatile week in U.S. politics, focusing on how President Trump’s two “forever wars”—the renewed military conflict with Iran and aggressive trade wars—are straining the country economically, politically, and diplomatically. The show analyzes fresh polling, major missteps from the White House (including the Saudi nuclear deal and tariffs), and the growing backlash to the administration’s data center policy. The episode also touches on upcoming primary calendar drama within the Democratic Party and features an interview with Jennifer Palmieri about her new series on Democratic prospects in the South.

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1. Trump’s Iran War and Its Political & Economic Fallout

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump is escalating the Iran conflict, threatening a "massive attack" despite no indication bombing will alter Iran's stance.
• The war is causing oil to surge above $100/barrel and gas to exceed $4/gallon, which is inflicting pain on American consumers.
• U.S. military deaths are increasing, with Trump noted making bizarre and inappropriate remarks when greeting fallen soldiers at Dover Air Force Base.

Notable Quotes:

• "I've always thought that the best way to understand Trump is that he is just like a cable news viewer who became president." — Jon Favreau (07:39)
• "In order for the strait to be open, we have to stop Iran from even threatening the idea of firing missiles or drones at ships... we're trying to do something that is not actually possible in the situation we're in." – Dan Pfeiffer (09:49)

Timestamps:

• [03:26] Trump's remarks at a Georgia rally about Iran war and soldiers
• [06:34] Discussion on Trump's awareness of political reality and strategic aims
• [09:04] Ground invasion as the only real means of 'victory'

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2. The Saudi Nuclear Deal

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump has negotiated a deal enabling Saudi Arabia to start a civilian nuclear program, despite denying it enables uranium enrichment (it does).
• The administration claims normalization with Israel is a condition, but Saudi officials deny this will ever happen.
• The hosts highlight the hypocrisy of fighting Iran’s nuclear ambitions while boosting those of another autocracy.

Notable Quotes:

• "If you can't destroy Iran's nuclear program, the next best thing is to launch Saudi Arabia's." – Jon Favreau (11:01)
• "Why are we launching a nuclear program with an autocratic regime? ...Of all the countries too, not even a democracy." — Jon Favreau (12:15)

Timestamps:

• [11:01] Report and reaction to the Saudi deal
• [12:41] Public backlash (only 19% support via poll)

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3. The Cost of "Forever Wars": Defense Budget Crisis

Key Discussion Points:

• Pentagon is reportedly running out of money due to war spending; Defense Secretary seeks an immediate $70 billion cash infusion.
• Possibility of running out of funding before the election with vulnerable GOP senators facing a tough vote.

Notable Quotes:

• "This war is bankrupting the country and the Defense Department as if there are no other threats in the world." – Jon Favreau (17:28)
• "Iran is sending cheap, fabricated drones towards us, and then we're shooting them down with very, very expensive missiles. It's wild." – Dan Pfeiffer (17:41)

Timestamps:

• [16:18] Pentagon's funding woes and political implications

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4. Trade Wars Escalate: Tariffs on Canada & Prescription Drugs

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump announces a 50% tariff on Canadian goods and an up-to-200% tariff on imported generic drugs set to impact U.S. consumers.
• The justification for Canadian tariffs appears to be retaliation for wildfire smoke, not economic policy.

Notable Quotes:

• "The reason that Americans are going to pay more in costs for many things, it's because Donald Trump doesn't understand how wind works." — Dan Pfeiffer (21:08)
• "He's out there...offering people a 200% tariff on prescription drugs." — Jon Favreau (20:22)

Timestamps:

• [17:17] New tariffs on drugs and Canada
• [20:46] Motives behind tariffs

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5. Data Centers: The Sleeper Issue of 2026

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump’s aggressive push for data center construction is backfiring, as communities across the political spectrum reject them over utility costs, environmental damage, and symbolism of unchecked AI development.
• A Gallup poll shows 70% of Americans oppose data centers in their communities.
• Democrats urged to seize the political opportunity, as data centers become a stand-in for the broader backlash against big tech and AI.

Notable Quotes:

• "This is an issue that is bipartisan, unites Democrats, fires people up and is an issue of absolutely crystal clear contrast with Trump." – Dan Pfeiffer (23:17)
• "No one is ready to hear of the possible benefits of data centers when people are looking around their communities, seeing these awful things being built that could jeopardize the environment." – Jon Favreau (24:43)

Timestamps:

• [22:49] Trump’s statement on data centers and local opposition
• [23:17] Policy discussion and political implications

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6. Polling: Democrats Surge Amid GOP Self-Sabotage

Key Discussion Points:

• New polls show Democrats with a significant edge nationally as anger over the wars, tariffs, and data centers grows.
• Democrats lead Republicans on nearly every major issue, including the economy, for the first time in decades.

Notable Quotes:

• "The fact that Democrats have a 10 point advantage on the economy in this Fox News poll is incredibly consequential." — Dan Pfeiffer (29:55)
• "Unpopular wars that are bankrupting the country while he makes $2 billion since he's been in office. That's it. That's the midterm argument right there." — Jon Favreau (22:21)

Timestamps:

• [27:39] Breakdown of new poll numbers
• [29:55] Dems’ advantage on the economy among key demographics

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7. Democratic Primary Calendar Drama (2028)

Key Discussion Points:

• Deeply contentious debate inside the DNC over which states should go first before Super Tuesday.
• Stakes: early states dramatically impact momentum, nominee selection, investment, and reflect the party’s demographic makeup.
• Tension around Black and Latino representation; South Carolina (Black voters) and Nevada (Latino voters) both want first slot; New Hampshire’s state law presents procedural obstacles.
• Discusses potential unintended consequences (e.g., lack of impact in the general election from organizing in South Carolina).

Notable Quotes:

• "If you're going to organize these states, you want to have some benefit in the general election." — Dan Pfeiffer (35:18)
• "It is particularly rich for South Carolina to be the ones complaining about this because that is a state that plays no role in the general election whatsoever." — Jon Favreau (44:18)

Timestamps:

• [32:07] DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee debate begins
• [33:21] Criteria for evaluating early primary states
• [44:41] South Carolina’s limited strategic impact

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8. The Trump Aesthetic: Renovations and Political Optics

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump’s gaudy Oval Office renovations and the broader DC self-memorialization are viewed as tone-deaf and out-of-touch amidst economic turmoil.
• Polls show most Americans—especially Democrats and Independents—are unhappy with the focus on appearances.

Notable Quotes:

• “Every one of these things is an affordability issue. He's supposed to be fighting for me and he's doing all of this shit for himself. What a waste of time and energy.” — Dan Pfeiffer (48:19)
• “If all he did was just run around and sourcing fucking gold leaf from other places and just left everything alone, we would probably be ... doing better than when he actually focuses and decides he's going to slap more tariffs on shit, start more trade wars and forever wars.” — Jon Favreau (49:12)

Timestamps:

• [46:53] Rundown of Trump's Oval Office and DC renovations

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9. Interview: Jennifer Palmieri on "Long Play" and Democrats in the South

Key Discussion Points:

• Preview of Palmieri's new series examining how Democrats can rebuild power in the South.
• Georgia’s transformation is credited to decades of intentional policy, Black political empowerment, and Stacey Abrams’ strategy.
• In Texas, surprising openness among evangelical and former MAGA-focused parents to Democrats due to extremism, book bans, and school takeovers.
• Shifting Latino attitudes, particularly over immigration and economic issues.
• Potential Southern states to flip next include Alabama (due to demographic and economic trends) and Tennessee (growing resentment over gerrymandering).

Notable Quotes:

• “It mattered what happened 50 years ago...if people come together and try to make change and they're smart and consistent about it, you can do it.” — Jennifer Palmieri (54:23)
• “If these women are voting for James Talarico, that's a different deal. But also more importantly for the democracy. It felt like people questioning things more and being more open.” — Jennifer Palmieri (58:52)

Timestamps:

• [50:58] Palmieri joins to discuss "Long Play"
• [51:55] Georgia’s transformative history and strategy
• [55:35] Lessons from Texas and suburban cultural shifts

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10. Closing Thoughts

• Democrats have a real opportunity in the midterms due to Trump's deeply unpopular wars, trade policies, and tech favoritism.
• The show ends noting the importance of local organizing and learning from states like Georgia and Texas for long-term Democratic success.

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Overall Memorable Moments

• Trump confusing “Pee Wee Herman” with “Pinky Herman” in his speech (04:15–05:17)
• The heated, “bloodbath” metaphor for DNC primary calendar infighting (32:08)
• The emerging importance of data centers as a bipartisan, grassroots wedge issue (23:17)
• Palmieri’s personal anecdotes from the South, highlighting unexpected political openings (56:00+)

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For listeners who haven’t tuned in:
This episode delivers a sharp, often sardonic breakdown of how Trump’s self-serving wars, policy incoherence, and obsession with spectacle are driving crucial voters and key metrics toward Democrats. It features real-time debates about Democratic strategy, captures growing public fatigue with endless conflicts and economic pain, and spotlights voices working for change in the South. It’s a can’t-miss summary of America’s pivotal summer of 2026.

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(End of summary)

Transcript

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[Hank Green]

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[Jon Favreau]

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

[Jon Favreau]

On today's show, we got some fresh new polling that shows Trump's Forever wars dragging down his party and boosting Democrats. We'll also talk about the president's spirited defense of data centers and launching Saudi Arabia's nuclear program. Congratulations. As well as all the drama over which states will go first in the 2028 presidential primary calendar, which the DNC is debating as we speak. Then Dan talks to our pal and former Obama colleague Jennifer Palmeri, who's out with a new series co produced by your friends here at Crooked, about the politics of the South. All right, with just about 100 days left until the midterms, Trump is ramping up the two Forever wars he started that are now bankrupting the country, his war with Iran and his trade war with everyone. He told Axios this morning, quote, I am considering a massive attack on Iran, bigger than ever before, because Iran, quote, hasn't received enough pain yet. This despite a US Intelligence report that more bombing won't change Iran's negotiating position. Nothing's getting through the straits right now. Oil's now back over $100 a barrel. Gas is back over $4 a gallon. And Trump had to go to Dover Air Force Base on Wednesday to witness the dignified transfer of four more Americans who lost their lives in this war. Here's what the commander in chief had to say about all of this at an event in Georgia later in the day.

[Donald Trump]

This is with this skirmish we have with the Islamic Republic of Iran. And I call it that because, let me tell you, they're getting hit so hard. When I go to Dover, I read charts on all of the young people, and some are unbelievable. Some are a little bit, you know, they got a little bit of a little. Couple of little bad things put in. This is a son who is like a flawless, perfect person. He's looking down right here. He's so proud right now. So together, we're making our country safer and stronger and far more successful than it's ever been before. And that's happening before your very eyes was I fought ourselves before, as you know, and we won. We had a great success against this guy. He reminds me of Pinky Herman. Do you ever see Pinky Herman?

[Jon Favreau]

You ever see Pinky Herman, Dan?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No. No, I haven't seen Pinky Herman.

[Jon Favreau]

A few things about that. Now we're talking about all the bad things about the soldiers who've died, whose bodies he greets for a dignified transfer at Dover. Luckily for the soldier who died that he talked about in that rally, there were only good things, but sometimes there are bad things, apparently. So that was normal.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

On the charts.

[Jon Favreau]

On the charts.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

On the charts.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know if you also saw at the beginning there. Do you see the guy in the suit behind Trump who was doing an impression of Trump, I think.

[Sponsor Voice]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Was that flattery? Mockery, I assume.

[Jon Favreau]

Flattery? I don't know. Who can say. Who can say Pinky Herman? He really can't land the Ossoff name. It was, remember on Truth Social, he had John Oss jerk off and he had jerk in parentheses.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That was better than Pinky Herman.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, it reads better. It doesn't sound. You can't really say it. You can read it and you get the jerk off thing yeah, it's hard

[Dan Pfeiffer]

to do error parentheses at a rally.

[Jon Favreau]

Better than Pinky Herman, though. All right, Dan, is there a Pinky?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

There's no Huey Herman. There's no Pinky. And he didn't confl 1920s characters or something, right?

[Jon Favreau]

I don't believe so, because later he did say Pee Wee Herman. I think he read it wrong.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay.

[Jon Favreau]

But he's a creature. He's also a creature of the 80s, so you'd think he would know Pee Wee Herman. Not know him personally, but like, would have been.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, there's a very good chance he would know him personally.

[Jon Favreau]

Maybe.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, who knows where they used to hang out.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. Kinds of theaters. All right, I was gonna have a question about all this. Oh, yeah, right. So in a May Politico poll, half of MAGA voters said that the Iran war was worth the economic costs. In this week's poll, only one third of MAGA voters think that these aren't just Republican voters. These are MAGA voters. These are Trump supporters. One person close to the White House told Politico the president is now fully aware that the only way to the victory he wants is. Is completely politically impossible. Do you think he's actually aware of that?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's a great question, John. It's hard to say. Hard to say it the whole, like, what victory does he want? He doesn't really care, I think, about anything other than getting gas prices and oil prices down without looking like he surrender to Iran. He wants the war to go away, but he doesn't want to look like a loser in doing that, which seems like an impossible circle to square in the current situation. Also, he seems in the, you know, this is going to, I'm thinking of the worst attack ever. He, like, maybe there is a plan somewhere that Pete takes at the drawn up for the worst attack. They probably have some contingency plans, but it really seems like Trump trying to threaten them again. But he's done this a hundred times now. You know, I'm going to blow up the bridges, I'm going to blow up the power plants, I'm going to do all these things and then he doesn't do them. And Iran just keeps doing what Iran is doing and nothing really changes. And so his threats, his words, which is not a great place for a president to be, but his words mean nothing domestically or diplomatically now when he's talking about the war.

[Jon Favreau]

I've always thought that the best way to understand Trump is that he is just like a cable news viewer who became president, like a Cable news fanatic. And so his understanding of war is that of someone who has watched the Iraq war and other wars unfold on cable television. He thinks you just press some buttons and drop some bombs, and if you drop enough bombs, then the war stops. And because he now is in control of the most powerful military in the world, I am sure he's running around the White House being like, well, we just gotta bomb them more, we gotta bomb them harder. We'll bomb bridges, we'll bomb power plants, we'll do all the war crimes, I don't care. And the more we do that, suddenly Iran will stop. And he clearly has no idea what the reality of the situation is, which, you know, the Wall Street Journal just had a story that satellite imagery shows that they are rebuilding in Iran faster than the Israelis or the US Anticipated after all the strikes. And so, like, there is. And like I mentioned, there's that U.S. intel report from, again, from our own intelligence agencies just the other week that says no amount of bombing is going to change the Iranian negotiating position. You just cannot bomb your way out of this war. And I don't think Trump has come to grips with that. And I think when they say his optimal outcome is politically impossible and he's realizing it, or maybe he's not, it is ground troops and some kind of

[Dan Pfeiffer]

a ground invasion, I guess. I mean, I guess that's what he. I mean, I guess if the military assessment probably be the only way to actually force Iran to open the strait, to give up their power, to give up nuclear power, whatever the dust, whatever it else would be, to simply invade the country, yes, that is politically impossible.

[Jon Favreau]

And I think some of the things they might be considering now is they're back to the. If we take Carg island and maybe some of those islands around there, then perhaps we don't need, like a full ground invasion, but we can take those islands and that'll help open the strait. I don't know. I think they are. This is. I mean, it's very bad. And like, it, it. It very much seems like we're going to be dealing with this through the election.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Oh, at least.

[Jon Favreau]

At least.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And the thing. And maybe many, many, many, many years longer, because it's in. It's entirely asymmetric. In order for the strait to be open, we have to stop Iran from even threatening the idea of firing missiles or drones at ships. So if we open, let's say we take all these islands that, you know, you know, cost lives, money, et cetera, let's say we do that and 20 ships go by. But if the 21st ship gets hit with a drone, a missile gets damaged, that is going to then dramatically reduce traffic.

[Donald Trump]

Yep.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Like we're trying to do something that is not actually possible in the situation we're in. If, unless Iran must either surrender or cooperate and Trump can't get them to do neither.

[Jon Favreau]

It's wild. There was, however, one exciting diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle east this week that I'm sure Americans will love. Trump reached a deal that would allow Saudi Arabia to pursue a civilian nuclear program which could lead to them enriching nuclear fuel, though Trump denies that. He also says it's on the condition that the kingdom normalizes relations with Israel. I guess if you can't destroy Iran's nuclear program, the next best thing is to launch Saudi Arabia's.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's wild timing on this plan.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, what.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Also when Trump's like, he denies it could allow them to enrich uranium. Of course it can. That is the deal. That's the whole point, is what does

[Jon Favreau]

he think is going to happen?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But then he, I mean, this is sort of very Trumpian, which is there are substantive arguments why someone would want Saudi Arabia to do this. This was a long process. There's a long memorandum. There's all these agreements on how it goes forward and how it will comply with non proliferation and safety and all of this. They do all of that. It gets very bad reviews. Trump must probably seize a bad review on television or on social media or someone calls him. So then he tweets out a condition that is not in the deal. Saudi Arabia must normalize relations with Israel, something that Saudi Arabia said it will never do and undoes all of the work.

[Jon Favreau]

Also, though, why are we, why are we launching a nuclear program with an autocratic regime? I know that we are ostensibly allies with Saudi Arabia because we have to be for a number of very complicated geopolitical reasons. Maybe not that complicated.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it's pretty simple, Jon.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, it's oil and. Yeah. And Israel and everything else. Okay, so there's that. But like, I don't know, we've already looked the other way when MBS brought out the bone saw. And. And they are an extremely repressive regime. And now we think that it's a good idea to launch a nuclear program that could lead to more nuclear weapons. Another nuclear powered country in the world. Of all the countries too, not even a democracy.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes, you're 100% right. Like, why are we going out of our way to make this happen?

[Jon Favreau]

Because. Because the Trump family is in business with them and has done some good deals.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That's, that's, that's one reason. But then there just is, from the perspective of timing, which is just very funny. Like, I can imagine. I couldn't imagine being Trump's communication director. Imagine being the White House communications director. And you've spent the last four months arguing how the greatest threat to America is Iran having a nuclear weapon and we cannot do it. Then as you're doing it, as the war, to, quote, unquote, stop them from doing that, is ramping up some other part of the administration, the fucking Yahoo Energy secretary, whose name no one can remember, negotiates a deal to give Saudi Arabia one. Like that makes to the American public. That makes zero sense.

[Jon Favreau]

You're like, yeah, but, you know, but Iran is an autocratic regime that's repressive. Oh, oh, yes, that's right. Yeah. But they're on our side. They're on our side for now.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, the way a lot of the American people interpret it is, yes, we are giving a nuclear weapon to the country where 15 to 19, 9, 11 hijackers came from.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. Yeah, of course. It's an important thing to do. That's right. I'm sure everyone understands the. The difference between the different factions and alliances in the Middle east and why we're, you know, helping Saudi Arabia get nukes, but not unfucking.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, there was a YouGov flash poll that showed that only 19% of people supported this idea. Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

I can't imagine it's a winner.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

No.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't know if I needed to throw that in a poll, but it's good to know. Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry Me. Do you ever look at someone really succeeding in their chosen field and think, how did they get there? And what am I missing?

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[Jon Favreau]

Well, succeeding.

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[Jon Favreau]

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[Jon Favreau]

Also a reminder that we're not just paying for this war at the gas pump, but with our tax dollars. Pete Hegseth, who oversees a $1 trillion defense budget, is apparently about to run out of money in a few weeks because in his words, quote, it takes money to kill bad guys, which apparently they haven't done enough of. He's asking for an immediate cash infusion of about $70 billion, which doesn't yet have the votes in the Senate and in order to pass, would certainly need some combination of the three Republican senators up in November, all in very tight races. Susan Collins of Maine, John Husted of Ohio and Dan Sullivan of Alaska. Do you think it'll pass? And also, is this the easiest no vote ever for Democrats I would imagine

[Dan Pfeiffer]

that this does not pass before the election.

[Jon Favreau]

And then they just run out of money at the Pentagon.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, they can find money in the Pentagon.

[Sponsor Voice]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

I do think they're. They're. It's very like. Like they're about to run out of lines of funding that have to do with this war. And I guess Hegseth is moving some stuff around, though. They're like. They're canceling military exercises.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, not the ones that Kid Rock's house.

[Hank Green]

Right.

[Jon Favreau]

They're parking. They're parking jets to like. I mean, there. This is crazy. This war has fucking. Is bankrupting the country and the Defense Department as if there are no other threats in the world.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I mean, it does once again get the asymmetry of this, which is Iran is sending cheap, fabricated drones towards us, and then we're shooting them down with very, very expensive missiles. It's wild, but I think, you know, the. In the Senate, John Theuna said he will not work on the. On this reconciliation bill that would fund this until after they do government funding for the September 30 deadline, which suggests to me that he really would like to do this in the lame duck.

[Jon Favreau]

Although did you see that they want to. He was contemplating attaching government funding to the reconciliation package so that government funding can pass with just 51 votes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, that'd be another option for them to do it, but then you'd still

[Jon Favreau]

have to force Collins.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

You just have to force.

[Jon Favreau]

And Sullivan to vote. I forget how many you would need of those, but.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, you're going to get Fetterman's vote almost certainly.

[Jon Favreau]

Right.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So they could all take a walk.

[Jon Favreau]

All three of them.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, we are at 53. 47.

[Jon Favreau]

Okay.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Do you have to get to 50? You only have to get to 54.

[Jon Favreau]

They have 53, but they'll have 54 with Fetterman.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They'll have 54 with Fetterman. You lose three, which gets you to. And you only need 50 anyway because he can break the tie. So they could all take a walk on it if they want to.

[Jon Favreau]

And Murkowski and Murkowski.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

What about Rand Paul? I bet Rand Paul won't vote for.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, yeah, I mean, is. It'd be easier for Thune to do this because in addition to his vulnerable senators, he also has other people who don't want to vote for it. Rand Paul. And so you could see why he. If he. My guess is if he had his druthers, he'll wait and he may not. He would push this thing till after the Election.

[Jon Favreau]

Take the vote.

[Donald Trump]

Go ahead.

[Jon Favreau]

Do it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, do it right. Do it right now.

[Jon Favreau]

Love to run on that. So the political poll I mentioned earlier showed that people correctly view Iran as the top reason. Shit is so expensive. But a runner up was tariffs, which Trump has apparently decided to double down on. Also, great timing. Just like the Saudi deal. This week he announced a new 50% tariff on most imports from Canada, including wine, hockey sticks and cement. He also announced tariffs as high as 200% on imported generic drugs within a few years. Import. Imported generic drugs make up the vast, vast majority of people's prescriptions in the United States. His theory here is that he's telling all the drug manufacturers to, to come back to America and manufacture here and if they don't do it by 2028, just in time for the next election, the next presidential election, everyone's getting hit with a 200% tariff on prescription drugs.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Stupid.

[Jon Favreau]

Like, stupid.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And probably politically inconsequential in the short term.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. But. Well, you could, you should, people should talk about it, that it's, that it's coming, that he wants to do it because he's out there. The only affordability thing he can talk about is he's, he's like making up some shit about Trump Rx as if it's like some big discount that he's offering people on prescription drugs, which it isn't. But they clearly know that prescription drugs is a very salient issue for people and one that they had been on the wrong side of, so they tried to get on the right side and now he's doing a 200% tariff.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Well, let's go back to the tariffs on Canada because I think he left an important part. Why, John, tell me why he put these tariffs on Canada.

[Jon Favreau]

I don't. Is it. Did he say that it's because of the smoke? Because.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Because there's what the reports say.

[Jon Favreau]

I mean, I knew he was pissed at them about the smoke and then I know the terrorists came, but for some reason I thought it was another explanation. But of course it's the smoke.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. It seems like the most. The reason that Americans are going to pay more in costs for many things, it's because Donald Trump doesn't understand how wind works. I mean, if you imagine you were sitting at the nrcc, the nrsc, the House and Senate Republican leadership, and you're just trying. Or even any one of these campaigns, right. You work for John Husted or Mike Collins gets running into John Ossoff or in any of these races and you're just like truly the White House is trying to destroy us in this election at every single turn. Yep, he is. I mean, he finally passed the bipartisan housing bill. He refuses to sign it because he wants to take, he wants to prevent people from voting. He starts a war. He starts a, he reignites his tariff war. He spends all of his time talking about building corporate funded monuments in Washington D.C. it's like, it's like deep down in his soul, I really think Trump doesn't want to win the midterms. Like he just, he's trying. He doesn't, like intellectually, he wants to win the midterms. He thinks he wants to win the midterms, but his subconscious is trying to lose the midterms.

[Jon Favreau]

Unpopular wars that are bankrupting the country while he makes $2 billion since he's been in office. That's it. That's the midterm argument right there. I mean, you really don't have to say much more. Speaking of voter anger, the White House held an affordability event on Thursday where Trump was supposed to show how he's protecting Americans from increasing power costs because of data center construction, a hugely salient and unpopular issue. And as usual, he nailed the whole I'm on your side thing.

[Donald Trump]

You have communities that really want the data centers and frankly, those are the smart communities. You have to convince your community how great these things. You can't fight it. You have to go with it

[Jon Favreau]

to your last point. He's just, he's really trying to lose. I mean, a Gallup poll in May showed 70% of people do not want, would not want a data center built in their local community. 70%.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I think data centers are the sleeper issue of 2026 and beyond. The polling is very clear. It is a bipartisan issue. It is an issue that elicits tremendous passion from Republicans and Democrats. As you say, more than 2/3 of voters do not want data centers in their communities. Majorities of voters think that the pace at which data centers are being built nationally is happening too fast. They the large majorities of voters, in some cases 2/3 of voters, believe that data centers are leading to higher electricity and utility costs. They think it is poisoning their water. It is bad for their community. A some of them, most of them do not buy the arguments about job creation, economic growth. It is, and this is an issue that is bipartisan, it unites Democrats, that fires people up and is an issue of absolutely crystal clear contrast with Trump, who not it's this. Yeah, he said some dumb shit here, but the policy of his administration is to build a data center on every corner. Not because that's what's good for America, not because that's what's good for those communities, but because the billionaire roligarchs in the AI companies have told them that's what they want. Like this is like Democrats. There are some Democrats who are very strong on this, but for the most part, Democrats have been overly cautious on this because they're so afraid of the AI super PACs coming in and raising the ground with their hundreds of millions of dollars. But we are, this is a sleeper issue. Trump's on the wrong side. We have to be on the right side.

[Jon Favreau]

There's also, I've noticed some Democrats, maybe not Democratic electeds, but sort of center left writers, pundits who like defend data centers by saying that if it could help with more energy and energy efficiency and all this other shit. And I'm like, I think that no one is ready to hear of the possible benefits of data centers when people are looking around their communities, seeing these awful things being built that could jeopardize the environment, that could send their electricity costs soaring. And it is a stand in for everything that people don't like about AI, which is a lot right now. Because when you look at the polling too, it's not just that people oppose them in their own. It's not just like a NIMBY thing where people like oppose them in their own community. People oppose them in other communities as well. Which makes you, makes you think that it's a, it's not just about the physical data center like where you live. It's about what it represents, which is AI taking over everything.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

This is an issue I've been working a lot with, with candidates and campaigns and activists who subscribe to Message Box Pro. So I think this is a huge issue. A couple of things I would say on it though is if you're going to talk about you must be prepared for the pushback on increasing the tax base locally in economic growth because there is. Those arguments do have some purchase with voters. There was also a skepticism on a national ban. That's been changing a little bit recently. But voters have very conflicted views of AI. They're deeply concerned about it. There is some optimism that it could be good for the country in the long run if done right with the right amount of regulation. And so there is some hesitancy to saying stop everything right now because there's a fear that we could fall behind. And interestingly enough, I know you guys talked a little about the most recent Eckies poll on Tuesday's pod. But Latino voters are actually more positive towards AI in data centers than the population writ large or at least open to the idea that they could help with economic growth and job opportunities both locally and nationally. And so it's not like it is an issue we have to be very strong on. But there is a little nuance to the argument. But if you are overly nuanced and you are not standing up, particularly if it's in your local community, I think you're making a huge mistake.

[Jon Favreau]

What are the arguments against data center construction that are the most resonant with people?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That you're going to pay for it with your utility bills and that it is bad for the environment and the community are the ones that have the most. But it's going to raise your cost is like a number one. And where you've seen the biggest battles on data centers are in states that have very high utility costs like in Maine. That's one of the reasons that Janet Mills popularity has been down is people are very upset about data centers in Maine. She vetoes the bill on this.

[Jon Favreau]

All right, so you would expect all of this to translate into good polling results for Democrats. And it is some eye popping numbers in this week's polls. Emerson has Democrats at plus 11 on the generic ballot. Pew has D's at plus 6 and Fox News has it at plus 7. And in their poll Dems are at 53% which is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic ballot in Fox polling since 1996. Fox also showed Democrats more trusted to handle income inequality by 22 points, health care by 21 points, inflation by 10, the economy by 9, foreign policy by 7. In April, Republicans had an 8 point lead on immigration as an issue. Now Democrats are up by one point on immigration. Anything else jump out at you from all these polls?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's funny, when I saw that 1996 number I was like holy shit. I don't remember 1996 being a wave here. Well, it wasn't. We picked up like three seats. So it's like, I don't know.

[Jon Favreau]

That's good.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

But I think, look, I think these numbers are excellent. And we may look back and just say that this was, these were a little bit of outliers because the polls were in a moment of intense focus on the Iran war and tariffs, Trump's two worst issues. But I also think it's, we could look back on this in a few months and say this was the hinge moment in the election where it broke in Democrats favor, bottom drops out. Yeah, yeah. It's like what it. The ceiling on Democrats to this point has been people do not like Trump. They do not. They think he's doing a terrible job on these issues, but they trust Republicans more than Democrats on these issues and particularly the economy and inflation. I mean, there was a. Remember that Wall Street Journal poll that was I think late last year, earlier this year, which showed on almost every single issue other than healthcare and climate, Republicans, people, voters trusted Republicans over Democrats. The fact that Democrats have a 10 point advantage on the economy in this Fox News poll is incredibly consequential. Trump had an advantage on the economy in 2018. We picked up 40 seats. The economy is a more resonant issue this time. That's very good for us. And just to give you a perspective of how much things have shifted on the economy in that Fox News poll, Republicans have only a seven point advantage among white non college voters on the economy.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, wow.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Trump won that group by 34 points in 2024. The economy always has been Trump's superpower. It has been the thing that has held him afloat to this point. He lost that superpower, but Democrats weren't able to take advantage of that. We are starting to make real gains there. And if that stays the case, we will have a very good 2026 in terms of the national popular vote. It won't look like the seat gains from 2018 because of all the gerrymandering and redistricting that's taking place, but it could be a very good year if these numbers hold.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, I was happy to see this because I feel like in the last month there have been a number of polls where Trump's approval is in the shitter, but the generic ballot was closer than you'd expect from Trump's approval being that bad in the same poll. Right. And so that you have polls where it's 3, 4, 5 now, all three of these polls could be outliers, but they're also all three of them high quality polls, rated very highly. Fox, Emerson and Pew. So who knows? But maybe, like you said, maybe it's a focus on Iran. Look, I mean, gas prices were going down before the MoU went kaput and we were back to full scale war. So, you know, it could be a.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They could come down again.

[Apollo Sponsor]

For sure.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They could come down again.

[Jon Favreau]

Pod Save America is brought to you by Walmart. You know, we talk a lot about finding a job, but what about building a career? Walmart is actually making that happen for their associates by investing over a billion dollars in training and education. And the proof is in the numbers. Last year, more than 100,000 associates earn promotions adding great benefits like 401k matching and paid parental leave. And it's clear Walmart isn't just a place to work, it's a place to grow. Go see for [e-mail] grow@walmart. That's walmart.com grow@walmart. All right, let's get to the latest on the presidential race, which we're talking about because the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met this week to figure out the rbc. The rbc?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes.

[Jon Favreau]

That's what, that's what the people in the know call it, the rbc. They met this week to figure out the early state primary calendar for 2028. Most of the reporting points to four states that are likely to make that window before Super Tuesday in March. So this is in the January, February window. South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Michigan. There may also be a fifth state added. And now reporting is centered around possibly New Mexico or Virginia. But the order of which states go first is very much up for grabs. And the source of all the drama that's been leaking out of these meetings. South Carolina and Nevada are jockeying to be the first state fueled by what Axios called a long simmering feud between black and Latino leaders. New Hampshire has a law that requires the state to hold the first primary. So that's tricky. There are 49 people on the committee who will decide this. And one of them told notice, quote, it's going to be a bloodbath. Most states represented have at least one or two members on the committee. And I think they're all going to fight to the death for this. Great. So what are the big issues here and how much does the sequence matter?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So let's do the issues first. I think there are a handful of things that need to be in consideration as you do this. The first is the first four or maybe five states. Any states that come before Super Tuesday have dramatically more impact than all the states that come afterwards. These are the states that winnow the field. They are the states that helped pick the front runner. They matter a ton. And so if they're going to matter a ton, they must represent the full breadth of the Democratic Party in the electorate. Right. You need to have states with large black population. You have need Latino voters to have a say. You want theoretically a swing state in play. You want rural voters to have a say. So it's got to have real representation of all the parts of the Democratic Party. That's 1, 2. You also want the states to be states that play in ways both in terms of the voters, you appeal to the size of the state that give us the best chance of picking our best nominee. Right, right. It can't be for giant states where the person with the highest name ID automatically wins. It shouldn't be for tiny, for rural states or for states that are demographically similar. You want it to look like, you want it to be a, like a good trial run for a general election. And then what I think is really important is you want, because millions of dollars and thousands of hours of tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of hours of organizing is going to go into these states. You don't want all that investment to go to waste in the general election. Like you remember this, we were together in Iowa in the 2020 caucuses. We're flying out the day after the caucuses ended, but there was still no winner declared. And at the airport with us were all these organizers who worked for Bernie, Pete Biden, Elizabeth Warren who had spent the last year in Iowa, who knew the names of every Democrat and caucus goer, their names, their phone numbers, their kids names in these communities in Iowa. And they were leaving to go to another state to never return to Iowa again.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

If you're going to organize these states, you want to have some benefit in the general election. So I think those are sort of the, the main considerations.

[Jon Favreau]

There's one more thing which is you need, if you're going to move a state's primary, you need control, Democratic control of the state.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, this is the most practical concern.

[Jon Favreau]

This is the. Yeah, yeah. This is not like something about winning the election or anything, but like you can't because some of these states have already had their primary set and the legislature sets it. And so if the Democrats decide, oh, we want to move it up, you'd have to go to the legislature. And if it's a Republican legislature like in Georgia, because Georgia was being considered instead of South Carolina because it would make more sense for a whole bunch of reasons. It's a competitive state. South Carolina is not. Still also has a very large black population, but we don't control the legislature in Georgia. And so there's no reason to believe they would ever move the primary date for us. So yeah, I mean there's all these

[Dan Pfeiffer]

like little things in here that are really seem like they should be done but are quite consequential. It is New Hampshire law that New Hampshire Goes first no matter what. New Hampshire insisted on going first anyway in 2024 and got no delegates face a huge price and they had to sit like in the back of the convention. They either have to theoretically change their law if they don't go first. If they're not picked first here, they probably shouldn't be picked first. Nevada, this is really interesting. Nevada is a vote by mail state where votes count if they are postmarked by election day. So if Nevada's the first state you couldn't call, there's a chance you wouldn't be able to call the winner on election night, therefore depriving that winner of that moment where they accept the not they said, they give their victory speech. That is the moment that's propelled, you know, that propelled Obama in 2008, all the like. So that, that's a consideration. That's either a bunch of little ones like that. If George, if we, if we won the governorship in Georgia, which is I'll talk to Jennifer Palmieri about later in the show. You can maybe do it there, but you won't know that when you have to make the decision on this.

[Jon Favreau]

So New Hampshire, they have this law. They can't change the law. Or I mean, they could change the law, but we have a Republican governor there and a Republican, they control at least one part of the legislature. Yeah, can't do it. Kelly Ayotte is not going to do it.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Because the Republicans want New Hampshire to be first.

[Jon Favreau]

Right. So I don't know how all the reporting is like, well, it's, it's between South Carolina and Nevada for first. How are they getting around the New Hampshire problem? Even if New Hampshire, even if the New Hampshire Democrats on the at the DNC agree, like, they still have the law. So I don't know. I don't know why they're talking about South Carolina or Nevada first.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

They would just not if Neva. If New Hampshire can't change the law and the New Hampshire would not count. It'd be just like 20, 24. Remember, I mean, this has happened in the past. You may remember this from a different period of our lives. In 2008, Florida and Michigan moved up to go too early against DNC rules. Their primaries did not count because they were awarded no delegates when we didn't even compete in those primaries. And so New Hampshire could. If they don't pick New Hampshire, New Hampshire has its primary on that day. It's for nothing. No vote, no delegates are awarded.

[Jon Favreau]

They guess they could have. And I heard a rumor that this is possible, that they could have that primary that day. No. No delegates awarded, and then the state party can organize and put on a primary when they're supposed to have it agreed by the rules and bylaws committee.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, you could theoretically do that, although I'm not sure there must be a way to do it. But I'm not sure how you would fund that if the government didn't want you to do it.

[Jon Favreau]

So that's one issue. The issue you cited with Nevada is worrisome to me that we would not know who the winner is for. That seems like a disaster in the making. But like, there's this big fight between South Carolina and Nevada, and the chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party said in the New York Times that if Nevada goes first, then it will say something about how the Democratic Party views black voters, which I think is quite a statement to make. And then the chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, who is a black woman as well, she was like, well, 15% of our electorate is black also. And what are you talking about? And also, does that mean that if South Carolina goes first that the Democratic Party is saying to Latino voters that they don't count as much like this? But I just feel like the best way to deal with that is to let the state with the law that says it's supposed to have the first primary go first and then next have South Carolina and Nevada go like within days of each other. How much does the order matter among the early states? Right. Like, I get why you want to be in one of those five states in that window. But like, if New Hampshire's one week and then South Carolina and then Nevada or then Nevada and then South Carolina, like, how much does that matter?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It matters a lot to the people who own TV stations.

[Jon Favreau]

Cool.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

In those states. It matters a lot to the people who own hotels in those states. People who have companies that rent bike rack and other things for rallies. Because, I mean.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, because the first, the first, first date, people will be there for a

[Dan Pfeiffer]

long time, for longer and spend more time. And then it's diminishing. Right. Because the. You put all your. Most of your resource in the first state because for most kids, they don't get out of the first date. They're not going anywhere. The front runners then put their second most resource in second state and you're sort of like, well, if I make it to South Carolina, which used to be the third state, or Nevada, we'll figure it out. From that point on, a lot of the calculus on this is really dumb. Because there is this reporting, I think this is in Peter Hamby's excellent piece in Puck, that there are some folks who are very worried about Nevada because they think AOC could win.

[Jon Favreau]

You and I both.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, this is so stupid because, and the argument is because Bernie won. But just to put some numbers on this, because it was a caucus in 2020 when Bernie won and they made it a. It was a hybrid caucus. There were four days of early vote and then the actual caucus day. But even with that, there were 105,000 Democrats who participated in the primary in 2024 when Biden was running uncontested, essentially 150,000 people voted. And if there are 500,000 registered Democrats in the state, if it operated at a turnout level like a typically contested presidential primary, there'd be like 250 to 300,000 people would vote. So it's a very different electorate and

[Jon Favreau]

it's a more moderate electorate because. For a couple of reasons, like just. Because primary electorates are always more moderate than caucus electorates. Because to go to a caucus you tend to be highly engaged, more of an activist. You're getting out of your house in the middle at night and going and sit in a, you know, town hall somewhere for hours and hours. And so the people are more committed, they tend to be more partisan. And so like Bernie Sanders organizing the culinary workers in Nevada and winning the caucus that way versus an AOC trying to win over a larger primary electorate of. And yes, younger than South Carolina, more heavily Latino, but still a lot of like non college working class voters which like, yeah, she could do well in, but like, so could any candidate. And it's not, it's not obvious that that would benefit a progressive candidate like AOC over anyone else.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And then there's, there is concern about Michigan because they think Gaza would make Gaza a dominant issue in the primary. Yeah, it's like, I think everyone's overthinking this. We don't know what the world's going to look like when people are campaigning, you know, when these elections happen, you know, a little less than two years from now. Yeah, it's fascinating. And how they ordered will does affect things a lot. The other, only other thing I'd say is the identity politics fight about which voters we care which. That is not particularly constructive. It is true that black political power in this country has been decimated in a lot of ways by the Supreme Court in terms of congressional representation and all of that. But one thing that I think has not gotten a ton of attention is because of the way the districts where all these majority minority districts which are mostly black across the south have been written out of existence. That is going to diminish black voters influence in a longer primary process because those districts are ones that perform incredibly well and you get a bonus delegate if you perform above a certain level. And so the way Obama and Clinton really cleaned up across the south is that they were claiming all five delegates in those districts. There are fewer. There'll be almost no districts like that left across the South. And so there is a, you know, the opportunity to have a say in the process earlier. I don't think the South Carolina should necessarily be first, but that the process doesn't look like it used to for black voters now post the VRA decision than did before.

[Jon Favreau]

Undoubtedly one of the five early states should have a heavily black population. Undoubtedly.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

It is particularly rich for South Carolina to be the ones complaining about this because that is a state that plays no role. It is the one state we're talking about.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

That plays no role in the general election whatsoever. And so when you talk about like time wasted by candidates who are organizing in a state that they're never going to go back to, that's. I mean you could make the same argument for New Hampshire, but Michigan, Nevada, you know, again, it would have been much better if we had Democratic control of Georgia to make just. Georgia would be the state and that would be it. But you also have a lot of black voters in Michigan.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Michigan.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

One in about one in five Democratic primary voters is black in Michigan.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah.

[Jon Favreau]

And you. And look, ideally you'd want a southern state to be in the top five. That no matter what. And it just because of who controls the legislatures, it seems like we're stuck with South Carolina.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

North Carolina is also an option that could have, could have easily fit in there.

[Jon Favreau]

North Carolina would have been good where

[Dan Pfeiffer]

we control the governorship.

[Jon Favreau]

Why didn't North. That's an interesting one. I wonder why North Carolina didn't. And then I guess Virginia also. But Virginia, Virginia.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

The reason people are flown to Virginia is because it is a way to have a southern state that solves the Georgia problem because we control the legislature there. So you could, you could easily move it up.

[Jon Favreau]

Well, I'll tell you this. If it is Nevada, we will be moving production of this show to Las Vegas for many months, maybe even a year.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

John, I've been to Vegas with you. We should do it one weekend at a time. I just don't think an extended period is not going to be good for anyone. I love it. I don't know what would even happen to him.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh, my gosh. Yeah, this could be a real problem. Staff's gonna love it. I can just tell. I can already see excitement here. All right, last thing before we get to Dan's conversation with Jen Palmieri about Longplay. On Tuesday evening, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino posted a minute long video on his official Twitter account set to some theme music that some of you might recognize who are millennials or older, in which he panned his phone camera around the walls of the Oval Office in admiration of Donald Trump's interior decorating. Check it out. For those of you just listening, this is a lot of gold. Some more gold. There's a lot of model airplanes here. It's like fucking Saddam's pal. I don't know what's with all the planes.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, it, the Saddam's palace thing is. Right. Except this makes Senom's palace look like a Pottery Barn.

[Jon Favreau]

Oh God, it's so much. Is that the Liberty Bell? Okay, so what'd you think, Dan?

[Dan Pfeiffer]

It's not often you get to see, see, you know, when you see the Oval Office on tv, you only get to see part of it at a time. So you don't fully understand how absolutely gaudy it is now.

[Jon Favreau]

It's just, it's gross. It's gross. There's just too much. There's too much gold. And it also looks like cheap gold. And I'm sure it's not. I'm sure he just like spent whatever, but it's just, it's, it's busy. It's too, it's tacky. The model airplanes make no sense. There's some real substance here that we can talk about. Washington posted out with a new poll about Trump's big self memorials, found that about two thirds of Americans are unhappy about the renovations in D.C. the Trump renovations, led mostly by Democrats and Independents. There is a big intensity gap. 67% of Democrats chose the most negative answer, upset, whereas only 31% of Republicans chose the most positive descriptor, enthusiastic. How much of a political liability do you think? Not just that oval, but all of this shit is.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Every one of these things is an affordability issue. It's just like this is. Do people, do they. Are they really passionate about an ugly arch on the mall or the amount of time the president or like what the reflecting pool looks like? No, what they are upset about is that when the prices are going up, the President is spending so much time on the resin on the bottom of the pool or on individually hand sourcing gold flake for the White House or when he went shopping for marble armrests like that. That is to people just like he was supposed to be fighting for me and he's doing all of this shit for himself. What a waste of time and energy.

[Jon Favreau]

I will say I'd rather him be doing that than focusing on the economy. Because when he focuses on the economy he makes everything more expensive, not less expensive.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

That is a. And starts and starts half full take John.

[Jon Favreau]

You know, if all he did was just run around and sourcing fucking gold leaf from other places and just left everything alone, we would probably be, we wouldn't be doing a lot better. It would be probably doing better than when he actually focuses and decides he's going to slap more tariffs on shit, start more trade wars and forever wars.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So he basically needs at all times some sort of fidget toy. Yes, maybe taxpayer funded fidget toy or billionaire funded fidget toy, but that's what you wanted to be doing.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah, that's just a thought. All right. When we come back, Dan talks to Jen. Paul. Mary. Pod Save America is brought to you by Chime. It's no secret that everything is expensive right now. Which means you probably want to know if you're getting the most out of your money. That's where Chime comes in. Chime is changing the way people bank. They're not like traditional banks that love to gatekeep the best rewards and pile on hidden fees. Unless you have a massive balance. Chime offers the most rewarding fee, free banking. All with no overdraft fees, no monthly fees, no minimum balance fees. You get 5% cash back on Chime card in a category of choice like gas or groceries. All while building credit through regular everyday spending. No credit check required. You can also grow your money faster with a savings rate that's nine times the national average. And if you're ever in a pinch, Spotme lets you overdraft up to $200 fee free. Join the millions who are already banking fee free with America's number one choice for banking. Head to chime.comcrooked that's chime.comcrooked Sign up now. It only takes a few minutes. Chime is a fintech not a bank. Banking services and Chime card provided by Chime's bank partners. Qualifying direct deposits required. Terms and limits apply. Go to chime.com disclosures for details.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Joining me now is the former White House communications director, the Emmy nominated host of the Circus and Creator of the new show Long Play, which you can find on YouTube anywhere you get your podcast. Join me now is my old coworker, my friend Jennifer Palmieri. How are you?

[Jennifer Palmieri]

I'm good. I'm psyched. I'm so psyched that this is like this, that we're actually doing the show. And now it's also out in the world and people know about it. It's very exciting.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

On Monday, On Monday we have two episodes.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Our first two episodes drop on Monday. They're about Georgia and Texas.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Okay. That's right. So this is a six part series on how Democrats win back power in the South. I'm impressed. You can do this in six parts. Seems like quite a task. You have been to Georgia and Texas. What did you find and where are you going next?

[Jennifer Palmieri]

So, okay, so Georgia, I mean every state is super interesting right now we're in North Carolina. So this is episode three will be North Carolina. We're going to go to Tennessee next. Then we're gonna go to Alabama. And then episode six is a jump ball between Louisiana, Oklahoma and Kentucky. So we're figuring that out.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Does Oklahoma count as the South?

[Jennifer Palmieri]

It does. It is. I mean, I looked it up in like whatever, you know, like, I think it's MSAs. Do you remember that? Like Metropolitan Statistical Areas. It is, it is classified as part of the South. I think they consider themselves pretty Western, but I just find it an interesting place. There's interesting Republican leaders there. Mayor David Holt from Oklahoma City, Governor, Governor Stitt's kind of interesting guy. So we'll see. So let me start with Georgia because like what's fascinating about that place is like why it is different from all other Southern states and why it became a belt. I'm in North Carolina right now. Right. And why didn't, why did Georgia flip first? Why did Georgia flip before North Carolina? Like, I think we're both old enough to have when like we thought North Carolina would be the one, right? Hillary lost Georgia by five points and then Biden won. Hillary lost North Carolina by like one, you know, one point something points. And Trump came back and won in 20. He won in 24. And I think, you know, and what you learn with Georgia is intention matters that that state, like there was decisions made in Atlanta 50 years ago at the end of Jim Crow, beginning of civil rights by a white mayor, Mayor Hartsfield, that Atlanta was going to be the city too busy to hate. You know, that was like partly an economic reason, right? Because racism is bad for business. But with intention. Then Mayor Jackson, the First black mayor of Georgia, of Atlanta, followed him and built. That's why Hartsfield is so huge, the airport, because they wanted it to sustain a black middle class. Georgia is the state that was the heart of the Confederacy. It was the heart of the civil rights movement. And just as 50 years ago, the civil rights leaders had to come together to make things, to make change in Georgia. So did black voters matter? So did Stacey Abrams. They didn't because like Dan, Remember in Georgia 10 years ago or so, it was, let's run conservative Democrats in the Zell Miller, you know, sort of mold, right? The like kind of almost Republican. And most of the Republican governors of Georgia, by the way, were former Democrats. And then Stacey Abrams is like, no, we're going to do something different. We're going to like, build a different electorate. We're going to change the electorate. You have Senator Jon Ossoff, Senator Raphael Warnock, they are running different kinds of campaigns and they, you know, and they won in very tough years. Warnock won again in 22. You know, Jon Ossoff is like in a good, it's in good shape right now. But it mattered what happened 50 years ago and that decisions that were made in Atlanta that are different than decisions that were made in Birmingham, different than decisions that were made in Raleigh, North Carolina. So that reverberate today. And so you just get a sense of. And then, of course, moving with intention now and trying to do things differently in Georgia like it matters. And that's sort of the inspiring part is if people come together and try to make change and they're smart and consistent about it, you can do it.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

And so let's talk about Texas.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Super interesting. Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

So I spent a lot of time In Texas in 2018, as many people did.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Oh, for Beto.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Bunch of events with Beto. You know, watching that race, Democrats got their hopes up there. This was a state that, where it's the one state I believe that Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama from 2012 was Texas. And she did so somewhat substantially in 2018 look good. And that snapback in 20, snapback further in 2024 seem to be moving much redder. Democrats are pretty optimistic about James Talarico this time. What did you find in the state?

[Jennifer Palmieri]

I was pretty, you know, I was a little skeptical of Talarico coming into the state. And I left with a different view. You know, what is. I think faith is a, faith is a very big deal that Democrats discount too much in the South. You know, I think there are, there are big structural reasons of why Democrats and black voters were disenfranchised in the South. And that was sort of the impetus for this series to understand all of that. But also there's a big cultural disconnect. What was amazing about, and I did feel this in Georgia and also in North Carolina. It's like, I'm not saying Talarico is necessarily going to win, but it feels more fluid, I think, as we're sort of the tail end of Trump's popularity. And since he was not an ideological conservative, voters, it's more of a jump ball for them. Right. So, for example, we went to Tarrant County. I interviewed Taylor Remitt, who's the guy who's the state senator that flipped a Trump seat earlier this year because they had an open election, open seat. And he was basically like, look, I'm a machinist that just knocks on people's doors and meets them where they are. And they understand who I am when I come from, I don't associate with the Democratic Party, national and local level. And they know that they can rely on me. The other thing though that happened was we interviewed PTA moms in Tarrant county, right? So Tarrant's Fort Worth, it's the big swing. It's the swing of the swings in Texas, particularly this year. These are three Republican women. One was like a never Trump Republican. The other two identify themselves as evangelical Christian conservatives. And they are not just voting. They're just not like sitting out, not just voting for Governor Abbott for reelection. And they're not just not voting for Ken Paxton. They are voting for James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa because they're so upset about wait for the MAGA takeover of their school districts. So, like, there was a big. It's so interesting, Dan, because it's like the call. It's like the clap back to 20 to Glenn Youngkin and Loudoun county and critical race theory and all of that in 21 and in the 22 midterms. And what one of these moms said is her child was an infant during COVID And she said, I heard about critical race theory. She's like, I was concerned about it because I don't want any children to feel like they're not equal or victimized. I heard that boys were going into girls bathrooms, boys are playing sports. She's like, so I voted for this MAGA school board candidate. And then she said, my son goes to school and I come to find out they're not teaching critical race theory, they're just teaching normal History. And you know, we need to know the good and the bad parts of history. They're just teaching like ABCs. And 1, 2, 3. She said, there's no boys going in the girls bathrooms or boys trying to play in girls sports, not at our school. And she said, I kept saying, show me where it's happening. And so then I came back to her and I said, well, you know, you're saying you're gonna vote for Talarico, but what about like Jimmy, six genders that Ken Paxton throws at him? And what about low T Talarico? And they're like, we're tired of that. We're tired of that. So if that's breaking down, if people feel. She said, I feel duped now. So I think a lot of times we can hear MAGA voters and think they're wrong, but not understand that they're saying what they believe to be true. And once these women found out that that was not true and they're superficial, they liked the dual language programs. They liked the DE programs entered the school because it gave their kids more opportunity. So I'm like, if these women are voting for James Talarico, that's a different deal. But also sort of more importantly for the democracy. It felt like people questioning things more and being more open.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Were there things that the. Not just the absence of all the things they said were happening in school districts, but were there things the MAGA school board was doing in the schools? Whether it was, you know, book banning. Yes. Changing how the history curriculum that they were reacting to as well.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Yeah, it was book banning. They hated that. You know. Oh, interestingly, both of these women who were evangelical Christians said, you know, I don't want the Ten Commandments taught in school. That is not what school is there for. She said, I do that. They said, I do this at home. And I think that. And they also didn't like, they had, I guess, very aggressive and good dual language program. So that from a young age, you know, English speaking students are being taught Spanish and they're going to, they're going to come out of that school district fluent. And they got rid of all of that. And then there was a confusing takeover where the state started closing schools as well. And that happened too. And of course it's also very. The sort of state takeover is also very antithetical to the, you know, what we think of as traditional Republican ideology. And that rubbed them the wrong way as well. He's not, you know, Trump is not popular there. We also. Fascinating. Mitch Landrieu spoke with two Hispanic small business owners who had both. Their construction. They have a construction company. They had both voted for Trump. They were very patriotic, voted for him for the economy. And they're going to vote for Democrats now, too, because the way he's corrupted immigration enforcement has handicapped their business. And also, it's really. And Gina and Ajosa brought this up, too. It seems it's really struck a chord with Hispanics in Texas. Their patriotic pride. They're really proud to be American. They think they've worked really hard for that. They're culturally conservative and it's an insult to them when they're, you know, when they're, when everyone is rounded up, when no one, when, you know, whether you're here with documentation or not, is treated as the same. Super interesting place.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah, I mean, I'm very fascinated by Texas. It's, you know, I don't want to get my hopes up for it, but there's a convergence here between the kind of Republican. Paxton is the kind of Democrat Talarico is the dramatic, this is the dramatic shift in the Latino vote which is happening to Trump across the country. But it happened. But this is, Yeah, I mean, if it's going to, he's going to pay a price for it. It is in Texas more than almost anywhere else in the country.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

53% of Hispanic men in Texas voted for him in 24. I think a big jump. It was like a 13, 15 point jump from 20. But that feels, you know, that feels tough now. I mean, you know, Texas is still super conservative. It's, you know, just to remind everyone it's not all Austin and Houston. It's places like Tyler. It's, you know, places like Laredo. We went to Laredo, which was super cool. You know, right on the, my hotel balcony, looked out over the Rio Grande and the borders. Like, our hotel was sort of part of the, the Border Patrol. I did not understand what I was looking at for like two minutes. I mean, I, I, Dan, I thought it was like the catering part of the hotel. I was like, oh, that chain link fence with the awning, that must be where they bring the catering down. I was like, oh, that's, that's not what happened.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Oh, no, that's where the Border Patrol is. Yes. Right. Democrats are going to have to do better in the south, particularly when the, as the electoral map is going to change up the 2032 census, the blue wall is, will it be insufficient to win the presidency in and of itself as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin potentially lose electoral votes and Texas and Florida Gain them. So there's Georgia and North Carolina where, you know, Georgia is battleground state. North Carolina is a battleground state. But as you point out, it's one that we've struggled with at the presidential level, although have won a. You know, Roy, we've run three statewide governance races there. We run a few statewide races last time. Is there another southern state state that you look at that could be the next one to go? Like, is there a Georgia in the making out there somewhere?

[Jennifer Palmieri]

It's a long. I think it's a long way off. But people point to Alabama as that

[Dan Pfeiffer]

state because of the size of the black population.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Because of the size. I mean, here's the thing with Mississippi and Alabama, right? I think Georgia probably has the third highest per capita percentage black voters. Mississippi and Alabama have the highest. They're about 39%.

[Donald Trump]

And.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

And. But what's happening. And they just have not been, you know. And I was born in Mississippi. I lived in Mississippi and South Carolina until I was 11. So I kind of, you know, I love this part of the region. It like, would kill me, Dan, how we just like as Democrats, like, I left and I never had a reason to go back because. Even for work, right? Because we just like. It's like, well, this is, this is what happens when you ignore a region. And the thing with Alabama is there's a high percentage of blackfellows. There's just a lot happening there. Huntsville is a big, you know, NASA is there. There's a lot of research there. There's people moving to Huntsville. I think it's like the second fastest growing city in the South. It's diverse. So kind of the way that the research triangle in North Carolina attracted new kinds of voters. Huntsville is doing that. And then Birmingham is really growing economically, but also you're starting to see new kinds of Democratic infrastructure come into Birmingham. So Doug Jones is running for governor there, former Democratic United States Senator. We're going to go. I'm super psyched to go to Alabama because you just don't hear really interesting culture too interesting music. Music's a big part of the show too, so that people are moving with a little more intention in Alabama. But like, so way Tennessee is kind of the. I feel like Tennessee is another place that with focus could change. There's a lot of people that are pretty, you know, really angry at the way they've just, you know, I think at the. After this election, there will probably not be a Democratic member of the House representing Tennessee anymore. They gerrymandered Jim Cooper out A few years ago and now they're gerrymandering the last standing Democrat and it will be 9 0. And then the expectation is come next year they will gerrymander the state legislature as well. And the resentment there is building up. But you got to get better candidates.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

As we are having this conversation, the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee is meeting about what the the presidential calendar is going to look like. There's John and I talked earlier in the show a lot about it. But one of the things that some people think is very important is that there's a southern state in there and maybe two southern states, South Carolina being one, and then possibly either North Carolina, Virginia or possibly Georgia. Although as John and I discussed, you need the governor to change the law to move the primary, which you know is possible. You need the government legislature, which is could be an impediment there. Do you think that having the Democratic primary, presidential primary take place in the south would be a net positive or a net negative for impressions of the Democratic Party in the south and our ability to win in general election?

[Jennifer Palmieri]

I think it's better. I think, I mean, first of all, I think Democrats would learn the south more. Right. Which I think is really important. And, and I think if you look at the stereotype of a Christian conservative mother who's Republican and voted for Trump three times and Greg Abbott three times, you probably didn't imagine that she didn't want the Ten Commandments taught in school and that she wanted her children to be taught Spanish and she did not want this kind of takeover of schools. Right. So there's so many stereotypes that I feel like familiarity. Our candidates in these states and the staff, the infrastructure, Democratic infrastructure, happy to folks on the state too, I think is a net plus. But I can imagine some of the concerns that you and favs might have raised.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yeah. We didn't get too much into the long term impact. The question we have is about obviously we need the states to be representative of the party in the country. And you want the states to be. There's sort of a short term and a long term. Right. With the short term is it's great if it's in a swing state because you do all this investment and in building infrastructure there and then you can use infrastructure in the general, which worked great in the years in which Iowa and New Hampshire were swinging. Were battleground states.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Right? Yeah.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Right. Iowa less so at the presidential level. New Hampshire sort of on the cusp there. But there is this argument for long term, which is if you actually had people investing in the state. You know, you had a two year cycle or an 18 month cycle where people were organizing the state within an inch of his life that could, you know, then you have the right demographic movement, you have the right political environment. You might actually that's kind of the a get some investment in the state that could lead to some of the things you talked about in Georgia, at least on the, on the progressive organizing side.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

I think that would really help in North Carolina in particular, because I think the problem in North Carolina is inattention to rural areas. And I talked to some rural state lawmakers that represented some of the black rural counties and they're like, there's just maybe if they heard something other than caricatures of Democrats, they would feel differently. So it is like it's that kind of stuff that's killing Democrats. It's the national, you know, particularly if you're running for a federal state, whether it's in the House or the Senate, it's like that's, you know, that's why North Carolina is sort of the inverse of Georgia, which is it can elect governors, but it can't elect senators. In Georgia, they left senators Democrats, but not governors.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Although hopefully we'll be electing a Democratic senator in North Carolina this year because if we don't, we're in big trouble. If Roy Cooper's not winning, we're not taking the Senate.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

That looks good. But I would just say the thing that they're like, they're nervous about. The Cooper people are nervous about a couple things. One, Michael Watley, who's the Republican opponent, has not gone up on air yet. That may, you know, he's not, you know, so they're like, hey, we're at 48. His approval rating is 48%. I would like work approval rating to be at 50%. You know, it's not. And they haven't even gone after him yet. And then, you know, it's just a tough, it's just a tough state and people aren't giving him as much money as other candidates because they think North Carolina is fine. So. But North Carolina has elected that guy a lot. I think four times since 18. Six.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Yes. And twice with Trump on the ballot, which is a great feat. I talked to Governor Cooper a couple weeks ago on Ponce America and you can feel the trepidation of people. Too many people are counting their chickens before they're hatched here. And just this is, this is not gonna be a seven point race. He's not winning by seven points. It's gonna be a very close race. It's just there's this, as you point out, he's right kind of, you know, right around 50 in his. In a lot of this polling. But either. But he's not a high above it. And so while a lot of that vote Watley's gonna pick up and make it close. And so it's going to be a close race.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

One interesting Democratic congressional candidate I met in North Carolina just is Jamie Ager, who he is running. He's in western North Carolina, near Asheville. His grandfather was a congressman, but he is not. Does not. He's just does not feel political at all. He's a farmer and he's running against Chuck Edwards, the incumbent, who just about a month ago was like, oh, wait for it, Shocker. Has like, you know, a problem with like sexually harassing his staffers and there's an ethics investigation of him. So that's like newly interesting and he's like a very compelling guy.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

All right, we will. We will check him out.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Fed hogs with him.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

I am. I'm very excited for Long Play. Everyone should check it out. YouTube more. You get your podcast. This is fun for me because I am a longtime Jen Palmeri fan, so I'm excited to watch it myself. It's a very, very cool project. We're very, very excited to be participating in it with you and it's great to talk to you.

[Jennifer Palmieri]

Thanks, Viper.

[Jon Favreau]

That's our show for today. Thanks to Jen Palmeri for coming on. Everyone check out long play on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. It'll be out on Tuesday. I'll be back on Sunday with Slow Boring's Matt Iglesias diving deeper into the midterms in 2028. Can't wait.

[Dan Pfeiffer]

Bye, everyone.

[Jon Favreau]

Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and fish Safari with Rhee Cherlin, Elijah Cohn and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt de Groat, Ben Hefcoat, Jordan Kanter, Charlotte Landis, Kirill Pelavie, David Towles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Singel. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.