Pod Save America — “What Is the Polling Telling Us About 2026? + Gov. Andy Beshear (Crooked Con)”

Date: November 16, 2025
Hosts/Panelists: Dan Pfeiffer (host), Sarah Longwell, Terrance Woodbury, David Shore, Carlos Odeo
Interview: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear by Alex Wagner

Episode Overview

This special live episode from CrookedCon dives deep into the lessons from the 2025 election results and what polling suggests for the 2026 midterms. Dan Pfeiffer moderates a panel of renowned pollsters and strategists to break down key trends—including Democratic turnout, base reassembly, and the evolving partisan brand crisis. The second half (01:06:14) features a candid conversation with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, spotlighting his red-state success and takeaways for Democrats nationally.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Democratic Overperformance and Takeaways from 2025 Election (01:48–09:00)

• Panel’s Mood: The crowd and guests celebrate strong Democratic showings.
• Sarah Longwell: Dems are "super mad and they showed up to say how mad they are," exceeding expectations in swing races (02:54).
• Terrance Woodbury: Emphasizes, “When you invest in the base, you win,” citing huge gains among young, Latino, and Black voters in Virginia (03:22).
• David Shore: Refutes the myth that “Trump rewrote the rules of politics”—unpopular actions get punished and “gravity is real” in democracy (03:59).
• Carlos Odeo: Warns against complacency—Latino voters are both “winnable” and still “losable”—current gains may not yet match historic highs (05:09).

2. Turnout vs. Persuasion, Voter Coalitions, and Demographics (05:10–13:00)

• Key Insight: Both turnout and persuasion mattered (“It was about 50/50 turnout versus persuasion” – David Shore, 07:24).
• Swing Voting: Notable crossover by Trump 2024 voters for Democratic candidates—especially among Latinos (06:34).
• Immigration’s Nuanced Role: Latino voters’ reactions to ICE raids affect political identity; important not to “flatten” these voters to a single-issue set (Carlos Odeo, 08:59).
• Black Voters and Men of Color: Huge turnout boost in Georgia. “Men of color have emerged as the new swing voters” (Terrance Woodbury, 11:18).

3. The Democratic Brand: Current Strengths, Long-term Worries (13:01–18:07)

• Brand Crisis: Dems run on anti-Trump anger, but Sarah Longwell notes “it’s a long-term problem” to be only the “anti-Trump” party (13:02).
• Base’s Desire for ‘Wartime Generals’: Democratic voters want “leadership to match the moment,” not caretakers but fighters (13:20).
• Changing Turnout Dynamics: “The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Democrats—[Trump] inverted that" (Sarah Longwell, 15:05).
• Policy Messaging: Dems must address security (border/immigration) directly, move beyond empathy-heavy messaging to address primary voter fears.

4. Narratives, Villains, and Popularism (18:08–26:40)

• Trump’s Zero-Sum Storytelling: Unites “crime, immigration, terrorism, and jobs into one issue” (Sarah Longwell, 15:37).
• Counter-Story: Terrance Woodbury: Dems need a villain—focus anger on billionaires/corporate greed, not other marginalized groups (18:07).
• Party Identity Drift: Carlos Odeo & David Shore discuss global democratic fragmentation; “breaking with the past” (especially Biden years) is necessary (22:30).
  • “Politics has become more about self-expression and values than material needs”—bad ground for Democrats (David Shore, 23:34).
• Popular Issues & Message Discipline: Both guests and host agree Dems should relentlessly focus on a short list of popular, tangible issues (e.g. cost of living, jobs, safety) to break through media noise.

5. Dem Messaging and Campaign Strategy Lessons (26:41–44:03)

• David Shore’s ‘Popularism’: Praises Zoran Mamdani’s focus on just a few key issues. “He ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician I can remember” (David Shore, 25:33).
• Messages vs. Policy Clutter: Over-analysis, over-micro-targeting, and excessive policy lists—Democrats must “pick three things and repeat them” (David Shore, 37:19).
• Sarah Longwell’s Communication Advice: “Just say simple things” and define priorities (jobs, safety, affordability); avoid dividing voters by group with excessive niche policy proposals (34:10–39:58).
• Handling Distractions: Advice to pivot Republican attacks (on immigration, crime, ‘culture war’ issues) back to the core economic contrast (Sarah Longwell, 41:15; Terrance Woodbury, 42:04).

6. Polling, Data, and Voter Enthusiasm (44:04–64:35)

• 2025 Poll Miss: Polls undercounted D support due to higher “rage and enthusiasm” among Dems, not fully captured by traditional measures (Sarah Longwell, 31:05).
• Structural Polling Challenges: The most politically engaged now lean heavily Democratic, complicating turnout models (David Shore, 29:38).
• Polling as Strategy, Not Therapy: Polls are “a snapshot in time, not supposed to be predictive,” useful to guide strategy, not manage emotional expectations (Dan Pfeiffer & Carlos Odeo, 63:06–63:48).

7. Defining the 2026 Agenda: Referendum on Trump or Something More? (50:51–59:37)

• Party Lacks a Single Leader: Can’t define an official, national “6 for 26” positive agenda (David Shore, 51:11), but every candidate must pick a few clear affirmative planks.
• Referendum on Trump vs. Contrast:
  • Carlos Odeo: 2026 must be a referendum on Trump—energizes irregular voters to turn out (53:47).
  • Sarah Longwell: “It shouldn’t just be a referendum on Trump. It can be a contrast: Trump is making you poorer…but also, here’s what I would do, because voters do not know what Democrats stand for” (56:13).
• Decentralized Brand Control: Now up to “liberal media outlets, donor advisors, foundations” to help define the Democratic brand as much as party leadership (David Shore, 59:09).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Gravity is real. If you do a bunch of unpopular things that piss off a lot of people, then you get punished for it.”
  —David Shore (03:59)

• “When you invest in the base, you win.”
  —Terrance Woodbury (03:22)

• “Latino voters are winnable... but they’re still losable.”
  —Carlos Odeo (05:09)

• “I have argued that men of color have emerged as the new swing voters.”
  —Terrance Woodbury (11:18)

• “Democrats can’t just have a party that is based on being opposed to Trump.... There has to be a party where people are like, hey, I know what these guys are for.”
  —Sarah Longwell (13:02)

• “Turnout has inverted—bigger turnout can help Republicans now.”
  —Sarah Longwell (15:05)

• “The narrative must start with defining the problem... we have to offer a different reason for the pain that they’re feeling.”
  —Terrance Woodbury (18:07)

• “Politics has become much more about self-expression of values as opposed to the material needs... that’s just been a really terrible situation for Democrats.”
  —David Shore (23:34)

• “You can’t break through if you’re split across a thousand different issues at once.”
  —David Shore (37:19)

• “They want their leadership to match the moment and they do not feel like that is what is happening. They want wartime generals.”
  —Sarah Longwell (13:20–14:00)

• “We as a party have to be more than just against someone. We’ve got to be for something.”
  —Andy Beshear (87:14)

Segment Timestamps

• Panel Introduction and Main Takeaways: 01:48–09:00
• Latino/Black Voter Discussion: 05:10–13:00
• Democratic Brand & Messaging: 13:01–26:40
• Strategic Messaging Examples: 26:41–44:03
• Polling, Turnout Modeling: 44:04–64:35
• Defining 2026 Agenda: 50:51–59:37

Interview — Governor Andy Beshear (01:06:14–01:36:17)

8. Beshear on Election Lessons and Red-State Success

• Answering for 2025/2026 Wins:

  • Dems win by focusing on "issues that matter to 100% of the American people: jobs, healthcare, schools, safe communities” (66:55–68:14).
  • “When we spend 80% of our time on those issues, we win tough elections” (67:56).

• Flipping Trump Voters:

  • Trump’s promises in 2024, but “did the exact opposite”—tariffs, ‘big ugly bill’ harming rural health and adding costs (69:02–70:21).
  • Voters are “desperate” and reward those most focused on everyday economic concerns.

• Governing with a Republican Supermajority:

  • “Democrats win, we do something Republicans can’t: we govern well” (76:34).
  • Focus on universally popular initiatives: factory/opening, infrastructure, green jobs (Miller in Henderson) (77:51).

• On Social Issues in a Red State:

  • “I stand up for every conviction ... but I spend 80% of my time on things that matter to 100% of people.”
    • E.g., vetoed anti-LGBTQ bills, explained it as driven by faith; “all children are children of God” (80:32).
    • No political penalty: “I didn’t lose a single point...I won by more in reelection” (81:36).

• Authenticity and ‘The Why’ of Democrats:

  • “We’re really deep into the policy... But how often do we talk about our why, what drives us?” (79:29–80:32)
  • Offers vulnerability, transparency ("I don’t know," "I was wrong," "I’m sorry") as qualities that foster trust (82:15).

• Big Tent Needed for National Wins:

  • “You’ve got to be a big tent party to win... Some people who win won’t share every value, but will share a lot of them” (84:12).

• Culture Wars & Conviction:

  • “If you have a conviction, stand for your convictions... but if we are viewed as distracted, that’s when people vote the other way.” (85:24–86:55)

• Hope as the Central Emotion:

  • “The most important emotion for people to feel about any campaign is hope” (93:46).

• Modern Campaigning:

  • Must “show yourself in new and interesting ways” across social and digital platforms, but always authentic—even as a “goofy dad” (95:04–96:13).

Episode Takeaways

• Democrats’ 2025 results show that anger, clear priorities, and a focus on broad, universal economic issues are crucial, especially as turnout patterns evolve.
• Base reassembly, including reversing erosion among Latino and Black men, is possible but requires ongoing, tailored outreach.
• Messaging must move beyond being the anti-Trump party and towards articulating tangible, simple, popular deliverables—jobs, cost of living, safety—and conveying an authentic ‘why’.
• Polling and modeling voters post-Trump remain difficult; qualitative insights and fundamentals matter more than ever.
• For 2026 and beyond, Democrats must define their brand via clear contrasts, not just opposition, and invest in hopeful, authentic candidate storytelling, as modeled by Andy Beshear.

Additional Notable Quotes

• Alex Wagner: "Do people know you're a Democrat?" (mocking Beshear’s bipartisan bona fides, 79:07)
• Andy Beshear: "You’ve got to show yourself in new and interesting ways...but I’m a goofy dad. That’s things people can relate to" (95:04)
• Sarah Longwell: "You can do all of that with one thing. Democrats just need to do that about jobs and affordability. Jobs and affordability all day long" (40:00).
• Dan Pfeiffer: "If health care is a top issue in 2026, we're going to do much better than if it's the 17th most important issue." (49:24)

For listeners and strategists, this episode offers a bracing look at what worked in 2025—and a frank debate about what Democrats must (and must not) do to win in 2026 and beyond.