Pod Save the World — Episode 508: Countdown to War With Iran?

Date: February 25, 2026
Hosts: Tommy Vietor & Ben Rhodes
Guest: Ricardo Zuniga
(Ad sections, intros, outros, and unrelated content omitted in summary)

Overview

In this week’s episode, Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes break down the escalating march toward war between the Trump administration and Iran, question the motivations and potential fallout, and examine the global ripple effects of recent U.S. foreign policy decisions. They also dig into Trump’s loss of tariff authority, Tucker Carlson’s incendiary interview with Mike Huckabee, the Pentagon’s push for unrestricted military AI, an ISIS prison break in Syria, U.S. cartel policy in Mexico, and the deepening crisis in Cuba.

1. U.S. on the Verge of War with Iran

[07:11 – 28:24]

Military Buildup & Escalation

• The U.S. is massing a huge number of military assets in the Middle East: two aircraft carriers (USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Gerald Ford), multiple destroyers, submarines, fighter jets, and missile defense systems.
• The U.S. embassy in Lebanon has evacuated non-essential staff because of the rising threat level.
• Trump has been presented with various military plans, from "limited strikes" to plans as extreme as targeting the Iranian Supreme Leader.
• “It feels like the final days before the Iraq war in 2003, except... we don't know why they want to start the war now, what the end game is.” (Tommy, 09:37)

Unclear Motives, Unachievable Demands

• No consensus on Trump’s goals: push Iran for “no enrichment” (nuclear), military show of force, or outright regime change.
• Negotiation terms are set so high (no nukes, no missiles, no proxies) that Iranian agreement is impossible, seeming to ensure eventual war.
• “We have to go through multiple wars to get back to a deal that [Trump] just pulled out of.” (Ben, 11:08)

Potential Catastrophe

• Analysts warn of civil conflict in Iran, regional missile attacks, massive refugee flows (“ten million refugees, people flowing into Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Europe.” — Ben, 13:42), and global oil disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz.
• Concerns over cyber operations or strikes on U.S. homeland infrastructure.
• Regional actors (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar) are “calling Trump up... saying this is fucking crazy. You’re putting our stability at risk.” (Ben, 14:35)
• “It’d be very hard for him not to do something.” (Ben, 10:02)
• Hawkish U.S. and Israeli voices are the main advocates for war; even MAGA figures like Tucker Carlson oppose it.

Public and Political Pushback

• Roughly 80% of Americans oppose a war with Iran—contrasting sharply with elite hawkish opinion.
• “There's something fundamentally broken when what the polls show—80% of people are against this—that we're going to do this because... Lindsey Graham, [the] Journal editorial page and Bibi Netanyahu.” (Ben, 17:18)
• U.S. military personnel are being over-extended (“Their toilets don't work... 45-minute lines...” – Tommy, 23:17.)

Diplomacy—Or Just Face-Saving?

• Iran’s Foreign Minister emphasizes, “There is no military solution for Iran’s nuclear program… The only solution is diplomacy.” (24:53–25:26)
• U.S. negotiators are “literally sending in two real estate developers” (Ben, 26:24), contrasting with the Obama administration’s team of scientists and nuclear experts.

2. Supreme Court Hits Trump’s Tariffs — Global Fallout

[31:09 – 37:19]

• The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs, limiting his main foreign policy “stick.”
• Trump vows to use other authorities for tariffs, but these are less sweeping and more limited in time/scope.
• Some countries like the UK and Singapore feel burnt by negotiating deals just before the court’s decision, while China stands to benefit.
• “This is a huge blow to Trump... The countries that stood up to Trump are in a much better place today than the countries that rushed to cut deals.” (Ben, 34:43)
• This signals the world that Trump’s power is “a diminishing asset” and that future deals with the U.S. lack durability.

3. Tucker Carlson v. Mike Huckabee — Israel, Borders, and Gaza

[37:28 – 54:45]

Biblical Land Claims and Territorial Ambitions

• Tucker executes a gotcha over Huckabee’s defense of Israel’s borders as biblically ordained, highlighting the contradiction with international law.
• Huckabee’s answer—“it would be fine with you if Israel took all of Syria, all of Lebanon”—sparks a diplomatic uproar across Muslim-majority countries and the OIC (38:10–39:25).

Quote:

• Tucker: “You just said it would be fine if the state of Israel took all of Syria, all of Lebanon.” (38:10)
• Huckabee: “It was somewhat of a hyperbolic statement...but it isn’t [the case].” (38:35)

Bigger Picture:

• The conversation lays bare MAGA/Christian Zionist extremism, confusion on Israeli borders, and how U.S. policy gets shaped by religious ideology instead of law (41:07–44:18).

Gaza & Civilian Casualties

• Huckabee claims the IDF is “more humane” than the U.S. military; Tucker skewers the logic.
• “When someone commits the acts of atrocity...if these were your children being held hostage in Gaza, what would you do to get them out?” (Huckabee, 45:38)
• “I wouldn’t want to kill 14 year olds, I’ll tell you that.” (Tucker, 45:53)
• Tommy: “When you say it out loud like [Huckabee] did there, he sounds like a fucking sociopath.” (47:08)

Why Do Americans Care?

• Tucker: “As an American, I’m not having any problems on the border with Lebanon right now. I live in Maine…” (50:28)
• Huckabee cannot articulate a coherent U.S. interest in these foreign adventures, highlighting a disconnect between D.C. and voter sentiment.

4. Pentagon vs. Anthropic: The AI Arms Race

[58:45 – 65:35]

• Pentagon demands that AI vendors allow “anything lawful” for U.S. war applications; Anthropic (creator of Claude) resists, wanting protections against mass surveillance and killer robots.
• Pentagon threatens to blacklist Anthropic if it doesn’t drop these safeguards (61:06).
• Secretary Hegseth: “Department of War AI will not be woke. It will work for us. We’re building war-ready weapons and systems, not chatbots for an Ivy League faculty lounge.”
  • “Such a fucking goober, man. He’s just such an unserious motherfucker.” (Tommy, 61:41)
• Ben: “If this succeeds in removing all guardrails...that’s scary… When the Chinese were using AI for mass surveillance, we would all get on a high horse…How is this any different?” (65:13)
• The fate of military AI policy is left to the companies, not legislators—setting a hazardous precedent.

5. Syria: 15,000 ISIS Militants Escape Detention

[65:35 – 68:47]

• Syrian government offensive causes chaos in Al-Hol detention camp; thousands, including ISIS fighters, escape.
• Failure attributed to the U.S. abandoning the Kurdish SDF after the Trump administration cut and ran: “…this is not something that happened and Trump didn’t stop it. This is something that Trump contributed directly.” (Ben, 67:47)
• “We’ve got 15,000 ISIS guys wandering around.” (Ben, 68:47)

6. FBI Director Kash Patel’s Olympic Debacle

[68:47 – 75:10]

• FBI Director Kash Patel skips a cartel crisis to party with the U.S. hockey team at the Olympics, using FBI resources for travel.
• Criticism over repeated misuse of government flights and politicizing athletic victories.
• “...the entirety of his tenure as FBI director is doing shit like this. It’s literally just fantasy camp.” (Ben, 71:21)
• Patel’s dereliction has led to delays in real law enforcement operations (e.g., delayed team deployment after major crimes because the official plane was tied up with his travel).

7. Mexico’s Cartel Chaos — Guest: Ricardo Zuniga

[78:44 – 101:14]

Assassination of ‘El Mencho’ and Blowback

• Cartel leader El Mencho (CJNG) is killed with possible help from U.S. intelligence; in retaliation, cartels paralyze parts of Jalisco: burning vehicles, attacks, killing at least 25 police.
• “They wanted that broadcast. They wanted that to be their brand. That’s their model.” (Zuniga, 82:17)
• Violence meant mainly as a show of force; cartel leadership succession is already underway.

US–Mexico Cooperation & Risks

• Increasingly close law enforcement cooperation, including new Pentagon efforts and intelligence support.
• Zuniga: “There’s a long history of [U.S.] intelligence community work…through Northern Command and a new JIATF Joint Interagency Task Force that's been put together to focus on cartels in Mexico.” (84:39)
• Direct U.S. military action inside Mexico remains a possibility, but Mexican officials work hard to demonstrate their own resolve to stave it off.

Policy Effectiveness & Evolving Threats

• Fentanyl has made interdiction vastly harder—cartels bypass old supply chains; crypto aids money laundering.
• “What’s been effective? Very little… Going after their money works better than anything else.” (Zuniga, 95:43)

8. The Crisis in Cuba

[96:11 – 101:07]

• U.S. policy has left Cuba in humanitarian crisis; 89% of the population now lives in extreme poverty.

• “There's very little hope. Every potential opening has been snuffed out...by the Trump administration.” (Zuniga, 97:54)

• Over 2 million have fled since the pandemic; the situation threatens to spiral into a Haiti-like collapse on America’s doorstep.

• “Marco Rubio is single-handedly making, running this policy where the current policy is starve an entire island worth of people.” (Tommy, 99:10)

• Zuniga: “...what they're trying to do is...bring that entire economy to a standstill… when do we get to that magical point where the population has had enough and there’s this uprising...Well, I guess we’re going to find out.” (99:23)

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “It feels like the final days before the Iraq war in 2003...” (Tommy, 09:37)
• “The polls show 80% of people are against this...we’re going to do this because some hawks like...and Bibi Netanyahu.” (Ben, 17:18)
• “[Iranian] regime's principal objective is to survive.” (Ben, 19:54)
• “When you say it out loud...he sounds like a fucking sociopath.” (Tommy, 47:08)
• “If this succeeds in removing all guardrails [on military AI], that’s scary.” (Ben, 64:20)

Key Takeaways

• War with Iran feels increasingly likely but is widely unpopular, with policy driven by a small, hawkish elite. The risks of destabilization are enormous, and diplomacy is hamstrung by maximalist demands and weak negotiators.
• Trump’s loss of tariff powers undermines his “deal-making” leverage globally, emboldens countries to resist, and further erodes confidence in U.S. treaty commitments.
• U.S. foreign policymaking is shown as incoherent and driven by ego, rather than clear interests or values, whether in the Middle East or the Western Hemisphere.
• AI in warfare lacks meaningful civilian or international oversight, with the Pentagon insisting on total latitude and companies like Anthropic as some of the only bulwarks against dystopian uses.
• Instability is rising: In Syria with an ISIS resurgence, in Mexico with relentless cartel violence, and in Cuba with U.S. policy pushing the population to the brink.
• Public trust in government action abroad is at a nadir, driven by experiences of endless war, hollow justifications, and an elite DC consensus totally divorced from voter priorities.

This episode provides a comprehensive, candid, and at times darkly comedic analysis of the foreign policy crossroads facing the U.S. and lays out a case for skepticism—and activism—on all fronts.