Biden’s Foreign Policy Farewell

Summary

Pod Save the World: Biden’s Foreign Policy Farewell Release Date: January 15, 2025
Hosts: Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes

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California Wildfires and Relief Efforts

Discussion Highlights:
Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes commence their episode by recounting the recent devastating wildfires that engulfed the west side of Los Angeles. The hosts describe witnessing massive plumes of smoke and flames, leading to widespread power outages and emergency evacuations reminiscent of the chaos seen during 9/11.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes (01:56): “I hadn't seen anything like that since 911 when I was in New York... We lost power that night.”
• Ben Rhodes (02:34): “We had wind so strong that a tree and like a real tree, not like a small guy fell over in our front yard.”
• Tommy Vietor (04:44): “Absolutely terrifying. Hopefully, this thing is well under control soon.”

Relief Efforts:
In response to the wildfires, Pod Save the World established a donation platform distributing funds to organizations such as the Latino Community Foundation, Los Angeles Regional Food Bank, and LA Fire Department Foundation. The hosts commend their listeners for raising approximately $100,000 to aid those affected.

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Confirmation Hearing of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense

Overview:
The discussion transitions to the confirmation hearing of Pete Hegseth, former Fox News Weekend Anchor, nominated by President Trump to serve as Secretary of Defense. Tommy and Ben analyze the hearing's dynamics, highlighting the aggressive questioning by Democratic senators and Hegseth's staunch defense of his positions.

Notable Quotes:

• Alyssa Slotkin (09:55): “What are you scared of?”
• Ben Rhodes (10:24): “An American first national security policy is not going to hand its prerogatives over to international bodies...”

Key Points:

• Policy Concerns: Hegseth's stance against women in combat, his skepticism toward the Geneva Conventions, and his willingness to potentially deploy the military against American protesters.
• Character and Conduct: Questions about Hegseth’s alleged drinking habits and personal conduct were raised, but Republicans appeared unfazed, focusing primarily on policy implications.
• Implications: Ben emphasizes the danger of Hegseth’s potential role, suggesting he could transform the U.S. military into a tool for political repression, aligning closely with Trump’s aggressive policies.

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President Biden's Foreign Policy Farewell Speech

Summary of the Speech:
President Biden delivered a comprehensive address at the State Department, outlining his administration's foreign policy achievements. Key areas highlighted include strengthening alliances, countering Chinese aggression, supporting Ukraine amidst the Russian invasion, and addressing climate change.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes (23:33): “During my presidency, I've increased America's power in every dimension...”
• Tommy Vietor (25:23): “What are your big picture thoughts on this?”

Analysis and Critique: Tommy and Ben acknowledge Biden's efforts in reinforcing alliances and supporting Ukraine but critique the speech for being overly optimistic and not fully addressing ongoing challenges. Specifically, they note:

• Overstated Achievements: The hosts feel Biden's portrayal of the U.S. as overwhelmingly winning global competitions does not align with persistent issues like Iran's nuclear ambitions and shaky alliances.
• Afghan Withdrawal: They commend the decision to end the war but lament Biden’s lack of acknowledgment regarding the chaotic nature of the withdrawal.
• Gaza Conflict: The speech's brief mention of Gaza was seen as insufficient, with minimal actionable commitments to resolving the conflict.

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Gaza Conflict and Biden's Handling

Discussion Highlights:
The hosts delve deeper into Biden's approach to the Gaza conflict, criticizing the administration for not leveraging its influence to broker a ceasefire. They argue that the U.S. has continuously supported Israel militarily without taking significant steps to ensure peace for Palestinians.

Notable Quotes:

• Tommy Vietor (30:43): “The United States has vetoed resolutions that tried to bring about a ceasefire at the UN Security Council.”
• Ben Rhodes (32:35): “Joe Biden used absolutely no leverage to try to end the war in Gaza.”

Key Points:

• Military Support: All U.S. bombings in Gaza were conducted by American aircraft, highlighting direct involvement in the conflict’s escalation.
• Diplomatic Inaction: The administration's failure to utilize its veto power to promote ceasefires is heavily criticized.
• Future Concerns: With the upcoming Trump administration, there is apprehension that reconstruction efforts in Gaza may favor Israeli interests, neglecting Palestinian needs.

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European Political Shifts and Implications

Overview:
Tommy and Ben discuss significant political changes in Europe, particularly the rise of far-right parties in Croatia, Austria, and Germany. These shifts are seen as symptomatic of broader anti-establishment sentiments and heightened nationalist ideologies across the continent.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes (52:27): “Nazism that begins in Austria and then moves to Germany has traditionally been a very bad thing.”
• Tommy Vietor (54:35): “Evangel Brooklyn's AfD party members are getting such a big boost from Elon Musk on Twitter...”

Key Points:

• Croatia: President Zoran Milanovic's reelection with 74% reflects pro-Russian and anti-EU sentiments.
• Austria: Herbert Kiko’s Freedom Party leads with promises to ban Islam and expel migrants, using overt Nazi-era slogans.
• Germany: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) garners 22% in polls, advocating for strict immigration policies and economic deregulation.

Implications:

• Normalization of Extremism: The hosts express concern over far-right parties gaining mainstream acceptance, potentially undermining democratic institutions.
• European Union Challenges: With member states veering towards nationalism, decision-making within the EU faces increased fragmentation, complicating collective actions on issues like Ukraine support.

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Middle East Developments: Syria and Lebanon

Syria:

Discussion Highlights:
The conversation shifts to Syria's ongoing struggles with rebuilding amidst international sanctions. Saudi Arabia and European nations advocate for lifting sanctions to facilitate development, while ensuring accountability for the Assad regime.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes (44:06): “If you don't get rid of sanctions, you have a much greater risk of instability of different groups fighting because there's a lack of resources.”

Key Points:

• Sanctions Relief: Calls from Saudi Arabia and Europe focus on humanitarian aid and reconstruction, balancing support with conditional sanctions to prevent regime abuses.
• Local Perspective: Ismail Al Adulla of the White Helmets emphasizes Syrians’ desire for normalcy over political leadership changes, advocating for practical aid over political interventions.

Lebanon:

Discussion Highlights:
Lebanon appoints a new president and prime minister after years of caretaker governance. General Joseph Awen's commitment to disarm Hezbollah marks a potential shift in regional power dynamics.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes (48:52): “This is a massive shift in the Levant, you know, and that's good.”

Key Points:

• Government Formation: Nawaf Salam's appointment aims to stabilize Lebanon, though economic crises persist.
• Hezbollah’s Future: General Awen vows to monopolize armament within the Lebanese state, potentially weakening Hezbollah’s influence unless external support from Iran persists.

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Risks for Global Stability in 2025: Interview with Ian Bremmer

Introduction:
Ben Rhodes welcomes Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, to discuss the top global risks identified for 2025. The conversation explores the declining leadership role of the United States, rising great power conflicts, and internal political fragmentation.

Notable Quotes:

• Alyssa Slotkin (63:53): “The United States has increasingly adopted a Chinese worldview, much more transactional, much more about power, much more of the rule of the jungle.”
• Ben Rhodes (68:28): “The United States is not declining at all other than its political system.”

Key Risks Identified:

1. Vacuum of Leadership: As the U.S. struggles to maintain its hegemonic role, other countries like China and Russia shape a new global order based on transactional and power-centric relationships.
2. Great Power Conflicts: Potential flashpoints include Taiwan, South China Sea, Ukraine, and emerging territorial ambitions by Trump’s administration, such as the rumored interest in Greenland.
3. Internal Political Fragmentation: The rise of far-right factions in both the U.S. and Europe fosters instability, undermines democratic institutions, and emboldens authoritarian tendencies.

Discussion Highlights:

• Biden vs. Trump Administrations: While Biden's tenure focused on rebuilding alliances and supporting Ukraine, the anticipated Trump administration may exacerbate conflicts through aggressive foreign policies and diminished international cooperation.
• Elon Musk’s Influence: Musk’s engagement with far-right parties, particularly in Germany, is viewed as a troubling trend that could normalize extremist ideologies.
• Impact on Institutions: The erosion of global institutions like the UN, WTO, and ICC threatens collective security and economic stability, with China poised to seize leadership roles in these organizations.

Notable Insights:

• Structural Issues: The persistent decline in U.S. leadership is less about military power and more about political instability and compromised institutions.
• Economic and Technological Frontiers: Competition over AI advancements and post-carbon energy transitions are critical battlegrounds shaping future global dominance.

Conclusion of Interview: Ben and Ian agree that the U.S.'s internal challenges significantly impact its ability to lead internationally. The potential for increased great power conflicts and the weakening of global institutions could herald a more unstable and fragmented world order by 2025.

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Conclusion and Call to Action

Closing Remarks:
Tommy and Ben wrap up the episode by reiterating the severity of the California wildfires and urging listeners to contribute to the relief efforts. They emphasize the ongoing need for support as recovery continues amidst the chaos.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes (86:09): “There are going to be people that right now are evacuated, but they're still going to be in dire straits in a few weeks...”

Final Call to Action:
Listeners are encouraged to donate to the established relief fund to assist those affected by the wildfires, highlighting the community's resilience and generosity in times of crisis.

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Overall Summary: In this episode of Pod Save the World, hosts Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes delve into a multitude of pressing issues marking the twilight of Biden’s foreign policy era. From the immediate devastation of California wildfires to the geopolitical ripples of Trump's anticipated second-term policies, the discussion is both expansive and incisive. They critique President Biden’s farewell foreign policy speech for its optimistic overtones and insufficient engagement with ongoing conflicts like Gaza. The rise of far-right parties in Europe and their troubling connections with influential figures like Elon Musk underscore fears of a destabilized global order. The in-depth interview with Ian Bremmer further elucidates the burgeoning risks poised to shape 2025, emphasizing the critical need for robust international leadership amidst escalating great power tensions and domestic political fragmentation. Concluding with a heartfelt appeal for wildfire relief, the episode encapsulates the interconnected challenges of environmental disasters and complex geopolitical landscapes, urging listeners to remain informed and proactive.

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Notable Sections with Timestamped Quotes:

• Wildfires in LA:

  • Ben Rhodes (01:56): “I hadn't seen anything like that since 911 when I was in New York... We lost power that night.”

• Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing:

  • Alyssa Slotkin (09:55): “What are you scared of?”

• Biden’s Foreign Policy Speech:

  • Ben Rhodes (23:33): “During my presidency, I've increased America's power in every dimension...”

• Handling of Gaza Conflict:

  • Tommy Vietor (30:43): “The United States has vetoed resolutions that tried to bring about a ceasefire at the UN Security Council.”

• European Far-Right Politics:

  • Ben Rhodes (52:27): “Nazism that begins in Austria and then moves to Germany has traditionally been a very bad thing.”

• Syria and Lebanon Developments:

  • Ben Rhodes (44:06): “If you don't get rid of sanctions, you have a much greater risk of instability of different groups fighting because there's a lack of resources.”

• Global Risks Interview with Ian Bremmer:

  • Alyssa Slotkin (63:53): “The United States has increasingly adopted a Chinese worldview, much more transactional...”

• Call to Action for Wildfire Relief:

  • Ben Rhodes (86:09): “There are going to be people that right now are evacuated, but they're still going to be in dire straits in a few weeks...”

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting critical discussions, notable insights, and impactful quotes, providing a clear understanding for those who have not listened to the podcast.

Transcript

[Tommy Vitor]

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[Ben Rhodes]

I'm Ben Rhodes.

[Tommy Vitor]

So last week prepping the show.

[Ben Rhodes]

Seems like a long time ago. Last week.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, it's like Tuesday. I sit in the office to look out the window. You see this massive plume of smoke rising in building and building and building. Then after we taped, it had basically covered all of the west side of Los Angeles, but we still had no idea. I mean, it was ominous, but we had no idea what was going to happen.

[Ben Rhodes]

I remember last night. Yeah, Last week I had a dentist appointment in the morning and it's on San Vicente. Forgive Non Angelenos. San Vicente Boulevard. It's a main thoroughfare in west la. And as I was driving up San Vicente, the entire other side was closed and was just all emergency vehicles. I hadn't seen anything like that since 911 when I was in New York, There were dozens of emergency vehicles. And that's when I came in here. And then when I drove home, they had closed off i10 where it goes down to the Pacific Coast Highway. And I could see the fire. I mean, not just smoke. I could see like flames. Right. And we lost power that night.

[Tommy Vitor]

You guys lost power early and for a long time.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. Well, it was that crazy night with the.

[Tommy Vitor]

For what folks know, there was like 100 mile per hour gusts of wind in some parts of the city and everywhere else was just really, really windy and scary, ominous windy.

[Ben Rhodes]

We had wind so strong that a tree and like a real tree, not like a small guy fell over in our front yard. But we were never, you know, like you. We were safe distance in the sense that there's like three miles of concrete between us and the Palisades. But, man, just a totally tragic and surreal few days here.

[Tommy Vitor]

Horrifying. And. And it's just that we're at the beginning of this thing. I mean, we're talking Tuesday afternoon, January 14th. There's going to be bad winds tonight. Hopefully then things calm down going into the weekend. And what we really need is some rain or for the winds to shift from blowing inland to offshore to blowing in for, you know, blowing from over the coast in. So we get some moisture in here. But, I mean, Hannah and I, we are. We're completely safe. We're fine. But on Wednesday night, we're watching tv, about to put our kids down, and the local news starts showing the Hollywood Hills fire.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, that was. Yeah, that was the. The. That fire was a weird one, too. I don't know if they figured out how that started.

[Tommy Vitor]

Don't know how it started. They. They got it out fast, I think, because they had the air assets available and they started dumping water on it from helicopters and planes, etc. But when we saw that, Hannah and I said, we're getting out of here right now.

[Ben Rhodes]

Those hills are uncomfortably close.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. And Hannah thought that we might have been evacuated and so we just like, threw everything we could.

[Ben Rhodes]

We also got, I mean, I will.

[Tommy Vitor]

Say like nine false. I do want to say evacuation notices.

[Ben Rhodes]

LA response has been far better than. I mean, we can. I'm not even talking about Karen Bass. I'm talking about these firefighters.

[Tommy Vitor]

They're incredible.

[Ben Rhodes]

I mean, I have a bunch of friends on Mandeville Canyon Road. And, you know, the fire basically started to come up the ridge to this road and they just stopped it. I mean, with air drops, with brush clearing, with fire retardant. I mean, heroic Heroic work. But the people that fucked up are the people that sent emergency warnings telling us all to evacuate. Because I got at like 4am Yeah, I got an evacuation warning. I'm like, this can't be right. I mean, I'm looking out my window, I don't see a fire, you know. But anyway, that's the least of the problems.

[Tommy Vitor]

Absolutely terrifying. Hopefully this thing is well under control soon. That doesn't mean. But there's going to be an enormous need for a very long time. And if you want to help out, we set up a way for folks to donate if they want to a bunch of great organizations. You can go to the Latino Community foundation, the Los Angeles Regional Food bank, the LA Fire Department Foundation, United Way of Greater la, and the California Community Foundation Wildlife Relief Fund. If you go to votesofamerica.com relief, you can donate there. Your money will get split to all five of those organizations. We did it on Act Blue through this, this, this setup because most of our listeners have all their information saved and it just kind of reduces friction and you can donate easily. We raised about $100,000 for those groups. Super grateful to the people for their generosity. But, man, I mean, Ben and I were just talking on the way in like it's, it's going to be a question of not, can you rebuild a lot of these parts of the city, but do people want to live there in anytime soon?

[Ben Rhodes]

Pacific Palisades is kind of gone, you know, I mean, it's just wiped out. We know lots of people who lost their houses and. Yeah, I don't even know what it looks like to rebuild an entire neighborhood like that.

[Tommy Vitor]

You know, thousands and thousands of houses.

[Ben Rhodes]

I will say my one, you know, lib comment here I'm going to make. But, you know, for years like this, it's interesting to live in a place where the climate effects are so obvious because to SHORTHAnd this in 30 seconds, it's been raining much more here the last few years, which means much more vegetation. And then it gets hotter and drier in the summer, which means that more vegetation burns faster. You don't have to be a climate scientist to understand that we have a problem here. And so there are places where it might have been safe to live like 30 years ago that people are going to have to think about how to rebuild, if to rebuild.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. And how we're going to manage going forward, knowing this stuff's going to happen.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

Our buddy Peter Hamby is a great piece in Puck that I think really well encapsulates Kind of the history of fires in the LA area. Like, yes, it's absolutely being exacerbated by climate change. But you had horrible fires in the 90s that led to the same questions, the same political recriminations. People, you know, you had people, you know, like, like Donald Trump Jr. Is now attacking, like, woke DEI initiatives is somehow responsible. The idiot Republicans in the 90s were saying that, like, an excessive focus on LGBT rights was the problem and why the city burned in places just the same.

[Ben Rhodes]

Something's never stuff stupid, never changes.

[Tommy Vitor]

Amazing piece by Peter and Puck and I think captures how angry a lot of progressives are at Democratic leaders in the city.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, but city is not the best government.

[Tommy Vitor]

No, we're having a hard time. But we are going to do a great show for you guys today. We're going to talk about Pete Heath's confirmation up on Capitol Hill and Democratic efforts to prevent him from becoming Secretary of Defense. Doesn't seem like that's going to happen.

[Ben Rhodes]

We'll see.

[Tommy Vitor]

We're also going to talk about President Biden's speech Monday outlining his foreign policy accomplishments. We'll cover news from both the Biden and Trump teams on immigration policy, the latest on international support for Syria, a new president in Lebanon, far right parties in Croatia, Austria and Germany, and what it kind of means for the global international order. And then what former Trump campaign manager or campaign chairman, I should say, Paul Manafort is up to. And then, Ben, you just talked to Ian Bremmer. Tell everybody who he is and what you guys talked about.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, Ian Bremmer is the head of the Eurasia Group, and they have a report out the last few days about the top risks for 2025. And given our risk watching here on this show, I thought it was an apt time leading to Trump inauguration to kind of look at the landscape and think about what is the most dangerous thing on the horizon. It's the total absence of any international order. It's the rising great power conflict. Is it the future of the US China conflict? Is it the way in which people like Elon Musk and other business leaders have become, you know, mini states and more and more irresponsible? And, you know, Ian's an interesting character to have on the show because he, he circulates in that world, you know, of political and business elites. So had, I think, pretty interesting insights into kind of the mindset of particularly the kind of business leaders who've kind of bought our politics. So it's worth checking out.

[Tommy Vitor]

Definitely. Definitely worth checking out. We got a New elite class running the show.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, we need to understand that. We need to study their habits.

[Tommy Vitor]

Speaking of global risks, Pete Hegseth, Fox News weekend anchor Donald Trump's nominee to run the Department of Defense. He was up before the Senate today, the Armed Services Committee. I think it's no surprise Hegseth got a warm welcome from Republicans, got some tough questions from Democrats. Here's an excerpt from some of the grilling portion.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Your predecessor in a Trump administration, Secretary.

[Tommy Vitor]

Esper, was asked and did use uniform.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Military to clear unarmed protesters.

[Tommy Vitor]

He was given the order to potentially shoot at them. Helos flew low in Washington D.C. as crowd control. He later apologized publicly for those actions. Was he right or wrong to apologize?

[Ben Rhodes]

Senator, I was there on the ground. I saw that. I saw.

[Tommy Vitor]

I understand and I respect that.

[Ben Rhodes]

I've been there. But you're about to understand the level of threat defense that was involved in that moment.

[Tommy Vitor]

Was he right?

[Ben Rhodes]

So he was legality and the Constitution.

[Tommy Vitor]

Was he right or wrong to apologize?

[Ben Rhodes]

I'm not going to put words in the mouth of Secretary Esper, nobody else.

[Tommy Vitor]

He said them himself. You don't have to.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

What are you scared of?

[Tommy Vitor]

Did he do the right thing by apologizing?

[Ben Rhodes]

I'm not scared of anything, Senator.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Then say yes or no. You can say no.

[Ben Rhodes]

The laws in the Constitution, okay, are we going to abide by the, by the Geneva Convention and the prohibitions on torture, or are we not? Is it going to have circumstances? As I've stated multiple times, the Geneva Conventions are what we base our. But an American first national security policy is not going to do is hand its prerogatives over to international bodies that make decisions about how our men and women make decisions on the battlefield. America first understands we send Americans for a clear mission and a clear objective. We equip them properly for that objective. We give them everything they need and then we stand behind them with the rules of engagement that allow them to fight decisively. I understand America's enemies.

[Tommy Vitor]

You heard Alyssa Slotkin, Senator from Michigan, and Angus King, senator from Maine. I thought Alyssa Slotkin. I didn't watch the whole hearing. I watched a lot of it. I thought Slotkin was really good, both in substance and tone of her questions.

[Ben Rhodes]

She'd be good on that committee.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yes, she is. And she has a lot of relevant experience you can't get about here. There were also been a lot of questions about Hecseth's drinking. Remind him. Reminded. The word, a great word, bibulous, which means like a state of near constant drunkenness. One I loved and stuck with me a long time ago.

[Ben Rhodes]

Sounds like my freshman year in college.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, his infidelity, you know, allegations that have tanked previous nominees for senior positions. But Republicans don't seem to really care about that stuff anymore. So we're going to focus on Pete's responses to policy questions because it seems like he's going to get the job. So, Ben, I came away thinking that Hegseth does not believe that women should serve in combat. He doesn't seem particularly committed to the Geneva Conventions or the rule of law. We know in the past he's lobbied Trump to pardon service members who commit war crimes. He also would not rule out ordering the military to shoot American protesters if Donald Trump asked him to. You heard Alyssa Slotkin ask him about that. He's going to give unlimited support to the Israeli military to use in Gaza. He is basically just a vessel for whatever Trump wants or says with no really relevant experience. But did I leave anything out? Any other takeaways from you?

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. So I have a piece in the New York Times today that people want to check it out about.

[Tommy Vitor]

Very good piece.

[Ben Rhodes]

But the basic point is to understand Hegseth, I think you have to understand what's happened on the right, really the far right, but it's now the right, I guess since 911 where a guy like Hegseth after 9 11, it's rah, rah, rah, we're going to go win these great victories in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those turn out to be terrible decisions. Those people feel somewhat betrayed by the Bushes and Cheney's of the world. And then they do. The thing that happens a lot when superpowers don't win war is they instead of kind of really focusing on the failed foreign policy, they kind of start blaming enemies within the United States, you know, the liberals, the Muslims, the immigrants, fifth column stuff, culture, fifth column stuff, you know. And that's Pete Hegseth. Right. He's basically. He went, yeah, he went from cheerleading the Iraq war to castigating woke culture. But I think that the thing that is dangerous, and some of that's in the clips, is to just, you know, he is actually arguing for a fundamental transformation of the US Military. We would no longer abide by international law in the Geneva Convention. You know, he advocated the pardon of people that murdered civilians. I mean, this is not, you know, close stuff. These are people that were actually prosecuted.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. These weren't edge cases. These weren't violations of the rules of engagement. These are pretty clear cut war crimes.

[Ben Rhodes]

Clear cut war crimes. Right. At a Time when Trump is threatening to violate other international laws by maybe like invading Greenland, which you got asked about too. That too is concerning, you know, how does the hostility, international law go in that direction? The kind of reverse social engineering of the military. We don't like gays in the military, we don't like women in combat, we don't like so called diversity hires, including the currently black Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. You know, and then this question that Alyssa focused on, which is, will the United States military just become not only like a kind of MAGA military, like it's part of Donald Trump's social engineering, but will it be used in the United States to serve the President's political interests, to quash protests, as Trump wanted to do after George Floyd.

[Tommy Vitor]

She also asked if Hegseth would ask uniformed military members to staff migrant detention facilities on the border. Sounds like yes.

[Ben Rhodes]

Or engage in mass deportations. Right. So this is very serious stuff and it is just worth pausing on the fact that it's absurd. He's going to be confirmed. I mean, putting aside the horrific sexual assault allegations and drinking allegations, just the fact that a Fox and Friends weekend anchor, you know, who is going to be there, is crazy. The Democrats, you know, some of them, I think were the people that were focused on what he's going to do, I think had the right approach. One thing we should talk about is like, what's the Democratic Approach and Resistance 2.0. Focus on what they say they want to do. You know, yelling at him about his drinking or his infidelities. I don't like those things. But like Donald Trump is the President, I think we've crossed the barrier of infidelity being disqualifying for high office. When the President of the United States was literally convicted and sentenced a few days ago for paying hush money to a porn star.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. One might argue also when Bill Clinton was elected twice.

[Ben Rhodes]

That's fair.

[Tommy Vitor]

Didn't care that much about that.

[Ben Rhodes]

People don't care that much about that.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. When I turned on the hearing for the first time, it was Tim Kaine, Senator Tim Kaine, shouting about infidelity. And it just, it felt so off and it was so wrong. Duckworth tried to burn Pete for not knowing what countries were in asean. I'm not sure that was effective.

[Ben Rhodes]

That probably endears Pete Hegseth to his for sure. Because he's like, fuck asean. You know, I love, by the way, I say that nobody loves asean.

[Tommy Vitor]

I know you love asean. I would never question you. But here is another slightly less Effective line of questioning then from Senator Jack Reid. I thought people might enjoy.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, by the way, would you explain.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

What a JAG off is?

[Ben Rhodes]

I don't think I need to, sir.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Why not?

[Ben Rhodes]

Because the men and women watching understand. Well, perhaps some of my colleagues don't understand. It would be a JAG officer who puts his or her own priorities in front of the war fighters, their promotions, their medals in front of having the backs that those are making the tough calls on the front lines. Thank you, Senator Reed. Interesting.

[Tommy Vitor]

What about that exchange was damaging to Pete Hegseth?

[Ben Rhodes]

That's a huge win for Pete Hegseth in that exchange.

[Tommy Vitor]

Terrible.

[Ben Rhodes]

It's just a fundamental misreading of the room, the room being America. To think that you're winning that exchange.

[Tommy Vitor]

Or the US Military. That clip will probably go around to a bunch of service members who will think it's fucking hilarious that he's making fun of JAG officers and calling them Jago.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, it's not the way to go. We should point out that Pete Hegseth has also written constantly about the existential threat to America of a Marxist leftist ideology and has called for the categorical defeat of the left in this country. So that guy running the United States military is maybe not the best thing for crooked media. You know, pretty bad.

[Tommy Vitor]

Pretty bad for everybody.

[Ben Rhodes]

We're not Marxists, to be clear. No, but we are in the last.

[Tommy Vitor]

Not even close. Just to round out kind of updates on the team, Marco Rubio has his confirmation hearing on Wednesday. The day this episode comes out. It sounds like he's issuing for confirmation Rubio. The nominees that were seen as wobbly in terms of the. From the national security side of the. Of the nominations front. Tulsi Gabbard to be Director of National Intelligence. Kasha Patel to be FBI Director. Those are no longer seen as wobbly by the kind stream press. It sounds like they will make it through barring some other revelation or disaster at their confirmation hearings. But Ben, before we move on, I did just quickly want to check in with you on what Trump 1.0's team is up to. This is a clip of Trump's first national security adviser, Mike Flynn on some random right wing podcasts called the Mel K Show. Let's hear from General Flynn.

[Ben Rhodes]

I mean there were people while Trump was serving as president that were in his administration that we now know committed treason. 100 they undermine. They undermined the sitting President of the United States while they were working for him and they were in the executive branch of the government. That's called Treason. So there. Some of them are over in the CIA, some are in the National Security Council. So there are going to have to be. You know, it's. I mean, I hate to use the phrase the night of the Long Knives, but. Because that's a really bad, bad phrase. But they're. There has to be a reckoning, Right.

[Tommy Vitor]

For those unfamiliar, the Night of the Long Knives was a major political purge ordered by Hitler in 1934, where he ordered the execution of rivals and political opponents. Ben, is it normal to suggest that your old boss should emulate Hitler?

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. When even Mike Flynn pauses and is like, should I actually say this? Yeah. You know that what's coming is real special. I mean, there's been this relentless normalization of these people since the election. And Hegseth, who I don't think had the votes to be confirmed a couple days after his nomination. There was this. And we talked about this already. But essentially part of the story of all these confirmations is the degree to which Trump has completely neutered the Senate Republicans because aside from tossing Matt Gaetz overboard, he's going to seemingly get all these people through. And that's insane because Cash Patel and Pete Hegseth are.

[Tommy Vitor]

Bobby Kennedy Jr. Yeah, Bobby.

[Ben Rhodes]

90% of that Senate. Well, maybe not 90 these days, but probably half that. Senate caucuses.

[Tommy Vitor]

They know better.

[Ben Rhodes]

They wouldn't pick those people, you know, and they know better. So it does show how much he's just enforced dominance. But with the Flynn, you know, Flynn is a little bit more out there. But I don't know, man. Take a. Take a tour through Pete Hegsez writings. And there's some good short ends, you know, noted, neolib. John Chait had a. He's in the Atlantic just summing up, reading his books. These people talk in apocalyptic terms about the left.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. Some fashion stuff.

[Ben Rhodes]

Cash Patel talks about, you know, tearing down buildings and sending people to prison. I mean, it's not that far off from the Night of the Long. Nice. And I guess what we'll find out in the next few weeks is whether they meant it.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. How far off?

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

That's what we'll find out.

[Ben Rhodes]

And it's an uncomfortable place to be. And the fact that every. I mean, you know, I'm not now I'm not going to do the media criticism of, you know, the resistance. It's more just all of our psychologies have to resist that these are normal people in these jobs, you know, they're not for sure.

[Tommy Vitor]

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[Ben Rhodes]

This is a fierce competition underway. The future of the global economy, technology, human values and so much else. Right now, in my view, thanks to our administration, the United States is winning the worldwide competition. Compared to four years ago, America is stronger. Our alliances are stronger. Our adversaries and competitors are weaker. We have not gone to war to make these things happen. During my presidency, I've increased America's power in every dimension. Look at the Indo Pacific. We made partnerships stronger and created new partnerships to challenge China's aggressive behavior and to rebalance power in the region. Just consider Russia. When Putin invaded Ukraine, he thought he'd conquer Kyiv in a matter of days. But the truth is, since that war began, I'm the only one that stood in the center of Kyiv, not him. Putin never has. All told, Iran is weaker than it's been in decades. And if you want more evidence that we've seriously weakened Iran and Russia, just take a look at Syria. There is nothing I can tell you from my conversation with both Xi and Putin, nothing our adversaries and competitors like Russia and China would have liked more than seeing us to continue to be tied down in Afghanistan for another decade. For all those reasons, ending the war was the right thing to do. And I believe history will reflect that.

[Tommy Vitor]

So a lot of different pieces there. Ben, we talked about this a bit on Pods of America Tuesday. So I'll be brief. I mean, I think what I found lacking in the speech, or less effective, was that it was kind of a litany of accomplishments that didn't really at times match up with the reality of this uncertain moment that we're in.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

This moment of peril that we just talked about with Mike Flynn, like, yes, we created new partnerships in Asia, but what happens to them now? And also, by the way, I mean, some of those partnerships and alliances like South Korea are a little rocky at the moment. Yes, it's great that Biden went to Kiev and Putin is not. But what happens to Ukraine now? Yes, Iran is weaker, but they are closer than ever to getting a nuclear weapon. So, look, you give it your best shot in these speeches. You're trying your best to kind of lay down the first draft of history and your legacy and your accomplishments. And on one score, like part of the speech, I do give President Biden a lot of credit for ending the war in Afghanistan. It's interesting that he's now highlighting that as an accomplishment when they didn't really talk about it for a very long time because it was seen as a liability. But, you know, some of the stuff in there about, like urging Trump to keep in place his AI policy or his climate work, like, it seems very unlikely, and then Gaza was kind of an afterthought. We can get to that in a second. But, like, what were your big picture thoughts on this?

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, let's do Gaza, you know, next. I think you put it well, listening to that even just now. And we should note this is the last podcast of the world of the Biden administration. It's not unlike the domestic piece in which they have a communications. And I don't think this is on the communications staffers. I think this is from Joe Biden himself, to be very clear. They have a communication strategy that's constantly telling you about all these historic achievements and so on domestic policy, I would watch this and he's constantly, I passed this and that. And nobody's done as much since fdr. And a lot of those accomplishments are real and important. But you know what? The cost of living sucks and the infrastructure bill, it's not the New Deal. It can be good without being the greatest thing ever. And it's interesting that they do the same thing on foreign policy and all these legacy tours, because, sure, there are good things that they've done. And if I go through the list that, you know, sure, they kind of restored good relations with our allies. They, at the critical moment with Ukraine, kind of helped Ukraine survive and have a fighting chance. And literally that's all it is in this war with Russia. I think they've done a lot of interesting things vis China, whether it's kind of restricting technology to give the United States an advantage, whether it's kind of building this network of alliances in the Asia Pacific, also kind of stabilizing the relationship with China. In the last year or two, they.

[Tommy Vitor]

Got that fucking spy balloon, got shot.

[Ben Rhodes]

Down, that fucking balloon, you know, rejoined Paris. And they, you know, they're good things.

[Tommy Vitor]

Huge climate investment.

[Ben Rhodes]

Massive, huge, massive climate investments. But because they over torque it so much, you know, that it's like to your point, like Ukraine is, is not. They talk about it like it's some war that is over. That was wonderful. And it's not, it's still a very difficult circumstance. And also we're not the main actor. I'm more interested that Zelenskyy stood in Kyiv than Joe Biden, to be honest. You know, and on Afghanistan, they'd have more credibility in defending the withdrawal if they acknowledged that the withdrawal didn't go well.

[Tommy Vitor]

I know that part's frustrating and Joe.

[Ben Rhodes]

Biden has never once said that he has any regret about how that went down. You know, and if he just said, you know, I believe was the right thing to do. I believe we had to leave Afghanistan at some point. I didn't want to leave this to another successor. But you know, we wish that it was less chaotic. We are heartbroken at the loss of life of Afghans and Americans and we continue to care about Afghan women and people that are suffering under the Taliban. The inability to just describe what everybody is seeing in the world because nobody is going to only believe that speech because we're still looking at the world in which there's a war in Ukraine, in which there's a lot of unnerving conflict, in which the Middle east is a mess and you know, we'll talk about that. So I just, it's a lesson in, in the last thing I'd say on alliances, which I keep coming back to, it's alliances are a means to an end. They're not an end. I mean the fact that we get along with countries we should get along with is not. That's great. But you know, where, what do you want to do with that? You know, and what is Trump going to do with that? And, and so I just think that there was just, it was so off the while. There's a lot of substance in there that is right. And we know a lot of people in this administration, by the way, who worked their ass off for four years. And I'm talking about even down people like mid level people. These are not necessarily even just, you know, these are not the people negotiating in Gaza. You know, I'm talking about people that went to work in a pandemic and are leaving with Donald Trump coming in. Probably had a pretty tough four years and worked hard. But, but this victory lap just felt kind of totally like who's it for? You know.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, no, I don't know, it seemed.

[Ben Rhodes]

Like it was for, to be blunt, Joe Biden.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. Who wants to kind of like lay down what his, what he thinks his record is and what it should look like and. Yeah, and I think he would be better served at least taking on board, listening to, giving an inch on some of the.

[Ben Rhodes]

It'd be a more effective communication strategy. They'd have a better chance at communicating a positive legacy if they acknowledge some error or some unease.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, for sure. We referenced the Gaza piece. So here's a clip of President Biden talking about Gaza.

[Ben Rhodes]

Palestinians who've suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started. They've been through hell. So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. The Palestinian people deserve peace and the right to determine their own futures. Israel deserves peace and real security, and the hostages and their families deserve to be reunited. And so we're working urgently to close this deal.

[Tommy Vitor]

So, Ben, this, this was the part of the speech that frustrated me the most, which is tonally the most off. I think the Biden administration, a lot of senior officials often talk about Gaza and Palestinian suffering in the passive voice.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

Is if we are not a party to this conflict when we're giving all of the weapons to the Israelis. And I know that President Biden is desperately trying to get another ceasefire deal. And there were a bunch of reports and rumors this morning that a deal was imminent and about to get done, but, you know, nothing was finalized by the time we started recording at what's 2:43pm Pacific right now. But even the deal that's being discussed will not end the war. Netanyahu is like ruling out ending the war. And now the reconstruction effort is going to get handed off to Donald Trump, who does not give a shit about the Palestinians. So it is incredibly bleak. We're the reason it got to this point because we've been arming one side of the conflict and doing nothing to end it, in my view.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. I mean, it's been 15 months since October 7th. Every single plane that has dropped a bomb on Gaza is an American plane. The 2,000 pound bombs dropped on refugee camps or American 2,000 pound bombs. The United States has vetoed resolutions that tried to bring about a ceasefire at the UN Security Council. We could go on and on. The bottom line is that Joe Biden used absolutely no leverage to try to end the war in Gaza.

[Tommy Vitor]

And it sounds like the Trump administration, without even taking office, is using more leverage or at least playing a little more hardball. Netanyahu, according to news reports. Reports.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, Yeah, I mean, according to news reports, you know, Trump has clearly made it, made it known that he wanted this war over by the time he took office. Publicly and privately, he said that publicly and he said, I've heard from many people in the US Government and in foreign governments that that's the message from Trump since the election. And if you look at reports, you know, Steve Witkoff, who none of us had heard of two months ago, was harder on Netanyahu than anybody in the Biden administration. Like, let's just be blunt about it, you know, if those reports are true, I don't know. And let's be clear too, that's not because Donald Trump gives two fucks about the Palestinians. That's cuz he wants to probably humiliate Joe Biden, you know.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I wonder if he's trying to actually Jimmy Carter him, which was, you know, Ronald Reagan takes office and hours later the hostages get out of Iran.

[Ben Rhodes]

He wants this kind of off the plate when he comes in. He wants it out of the news. But you know that I see some people are like, see Donald Trump's better for the Palestinians. Let's wait and see what happens in the West Bank. Because the west bank is actually the thing that I've been most concerned of with Trump is whether he'll just look the way to kind of de facto, if not outright annexation there. But look, there's no way getting around the fact that I know you can tell in all the legacy stuff they don't want to be defined by Gaza, but this is the thing that has happened that's the most prominent thing that's happened for the last year and a half. And it's, it's a huge part of this legacy. And they, the all the language, passive voice about Palestinian suffering, there was not really any action. You know, I mean, I get Tony Blinken's argument. Is it. Well, it could have been worse, you know, I guess, but it was pretty fucking close to the worst.

[Tommy Vitor]

Not that much worse. Biden also made a couple policy announcements on the foreign policy front that we just want to quickly mention. On Tuesday, the AP reported that Biden is planning to lift the designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. Ben, can you just give us the quick explanation of how big a deal that is and a time estimate for how long it will take Marco Rubio to walk it right back.

[Ben Rhodes]

So, you know, I love this move. I've argued for this move for years, but just to, this is a really powerful sanction because when you're on the state Sponsor terrorism list. You're basically cut off from the international financial system. I mean, the risk of anybody doing any business in Cuba is through the roof because of this level of sanction. Obama removed them from the state sponsor of terrorism list as a part of the normalization process. I want to add, as some person who negotiated that Cuba was not a state sponsor of terrorism. So it wasn't like a gift. It was actually just an acknowledgment of reality. They were on this list for holy political purposes. Obama removes him from the list, things start to get better in the lives of the Cuban people. There's more travel down there, there's more resources down there, there's more Internet connectivity down there. Mike Pompeo at about this time, the Trump administration in January of 2021 slaps them back on the list going out the door. Cuba has been in an acute humanitarian crisis that we've talked about. Look, this is a hugely positive step, but the fact that they're doing it now makes you wonder why they didn't do it one year, two years, three years, or four years ago. Because Cuba is not a state sponsored terrorism. So, I mean, I'm glad they did. It kind of begs the question of what's different now. Cuba was no more state sponsored terrorism in any other day of the Biden administration than today. And yeah, the risk is that Marco Rubio, who's made a kind of political identity out of being a hawk on Cuba, may come in and just throw him back on that list.

[Tommy Vitor]

So we'll see that happening. The other immigration specific thing Biden announced was the Department of Homeland Security announced an extension of temporary protected status for immigrants from Venezuela, Ukraine, Sudan and El Salvador. So that will protect 937,000 people from deportation for 18 months. The thing that's obviously great because sending someone back to, you know, Sudan right now is, is unconscionable, sadistic. But Trump has previously said he'd provoke TPS status for certain groups. So it's just not clear to me how settled this is or if they could also walk this one back.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, I, you know, this begs, you know, the question of there'll be legal challenges, I'm sure, but I badly needed step. But this is the same situation that was faced by the Haitians in the infamous Dogs and Cats episode. Because the reason those people are legal is because of TPS. But the reason that Trump and J.D. vance argued that they weren't legal is that they intended to revoke that status. And so expect to see a lot of drama Tragically, around whether people are here on temporary protected status can stay.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. And then one last immigration thing that caught our eye that we want to mention before we move on. Republicans are pushing legislation in Congress right now called the Lake and Riley Bill. It is named after a nursing student in Georgia who was brutally murdered by an undocumented immigrant. It became a huge sort of right wing cause during the campaign. The bill would do a bunch of different things, including require federal authorities to detain undocumented migrants suspected of theft of over $100 or more and do so without trial. So basically, petty theft will get you thrown in jail indefinitely, which is very strange and unconstitutional seeming. But the one very surprising piece from a worldo perspective is the bill lets states demand that the State Department not issue visas to countries that refuse to take back migrants we deport, which just seems completely unworkable to have, like the state of Oklahoma making foreign policy determinations for the federal government. But I don't know.

[Ben Rhodes]

This bill is a classic case of a bill that was allegedly written to do a particular thing, which is deport criminals, and yet was written so expansively as to basically do away with any due process as to kind of give the state of Oklahoma foreign policy powers. And Democrats were so intimidated by the election that far too many of them went along with it. You know, check out Andy Kim, Melissa Slotin, two friends of ours now in the Senate, you know, who took a principled stand on this. The one thing I'd add from worldo perspective is this is actually not new. It's out of a far right playbook that we've seen in Europe. So there have been efforts in Europe to use things like, you know, traffic violations, get people deported. You know, it goes far beyond the kind of stated intent of deporting criminals. It's basically, can we find any? You know, imagine if you were totally innocent and someone said, that guy shoplifted and this person's innocent and suddenly they're getting deported under the Lake and Riley Act. I mean, that's not great.

[Tommy Vitor]

No, that's terrible. Well, another one to watch, because immigration will be something that moves fast, I think in this next administration. Pod Save the World is brought to you by Lumen. Are you ready to jumpstart your health in 2025? Lumen can help. Lumen is the world's first handheld metabolic coach. It's a device that measures your metabolism through your breath. And on the app, it lets you know if you're burning fat or carbs and gives you tailored guidance to improve your nutrition workout, sleep, and even stress management. All you have to do is breathe into your lumen first thing in the morning and you'll know what's going on with your metabolism, whether you're burning mostly fats or carbs. Then Lumen gives you a personalized nutrition plan for that day based on your measurements. You can also breathe into it before and after workouts and meals so you know exactly what's going on in your body in real time. And Lumen will give you tips to keep you on top of your health game. Because your metabolism is at the center of everything your body does, optimal metabolic health translates to a bunch of benefits, including easier weight management, improved energy levels, better fitness results, better sleep, and more. There's so many folks here at Crooked Using Lumens is a really cool tool to track your fitness. You just kind of wake up in the morning, you blow into it. It tells you how your body's working, what your metabolism is up to. You could check in again before or after a workout to see if you need to refuel to just keep yourself going. Take the next step to improving your health. Go to Lumen Me world to get 20% off your lumen. That's L U M e n me/world for 20% off your purchase. Thank you Lumen for sponsoring this episode. This AI moment hits different it's the first technology designed not just to serve us, but to be us. I'm Baratunde Thurston and on my new video podcast, Life With Machine Machines, I'm going to talk to all kinds of folks, the people hitting the gas pedal on this transition and those trying to pump the brakes. Watch and listen to Life with Machines powered by Lenovo in partnership with Intel Intel Core Ultra 7 processor powering Intel V Pro.

[Ben Rhodes]

Lenovo Lenovo.

[Tommy Vitor]

So Ben, you know one of the big challenges that Trump is going to face as soon as he takes over is the future of Syria. Assuming he cares. Over the weekend, there was a big conference in Saudi Arabia with reps from across the Middle east, in the west, including the EU's top diplomat, Kayakalas, as well as Syria's new foreign minister. At that conference, Saudi Arabia called for getting rid of sanctions on Syria, with the Saudi foreign minister saying, quote, their continuation hinders the aspirations of the Syrian people to achieve development and reconstruction. So pretty clear there. And then in Europe, France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and Finland all released a paper saying the EU should immediately begin adjusting their sanctions regime while at the same time keeping a close eye on the human rights situation in Syria. If certain conditions are not met, they propose sort of snapback mechanisms to put sanctions back in place. But you know, it's interesting that as Syria tries to rebuild, there are these European and Saudi pressures, you know, pushing in the direction of sanctions relief. There's also this question of how to hold the Assad regime accountable, especially given the fact that so many of its senior leaders have fled. We caught up with Ismail Al Adulla. He's a member of the White Helmets based in Aleppo. We just wanted to hear what he had to say about what ordinary Syrians want to see happen next from their government.

[Ben Rhodes]

Most of the west or the west audience are talking about who will lead Syria or who will run Syria and this guy or this guy. And for Syrian people, this is not their priority. Their priority to get back to their homes, have normal life. And I can say on behalf of most of the students, we don't need a president right now for five, six years. We don't need president. We need to get normal to our life, to normalcy, to live again, to go. We need our children to go to school, their schools. Good school, good education. We need to rehabilitate everything. We need a government represent everyone election. But maybe this after one year, two years, three years, four years maybe, and we're not in hurry to get a new president. We have president since 50 years, so we can live without a president. Maybe we are the most happiest, happier people in the world last month, without president, without anything. We're living, we're building. Syrian people are in the streets, clearing the streets, removing the trash, helping each other.

[Tommy Vitor]

Some good context from the ground there about what actually matters to people. But Ben, on this sanctions question, why do you think the Saudis in these European countries are so much more forward leaning than the Biden administration when it comes to getting rid of sanctions?

[Ben Rhodes]

I just think that if you don't get rid of sanctions, you have a much greater risk of instability of different groups fighting because there's a lack of resources. Right. And so if your concern is the stability of Syria, you actually want to get electricity and food and investment in so that the place can stabilize, so that you don't have HDs beginning to get turned on by these other groups that are armed. And so if you're Europe, I mean, and let's face it, I mean, I'd like to think some of this is humanitarian. I think it is. But you also want Syria that people can go back to.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, they want to send back asylum.

[Ben Rhodes]

So if you want people to return to Syria, you Need Syria to be success. Saudi is very interesting to me. It's interesting to me that this conference was in Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia and the UAE were the least enthusiastic about what happened. They didn't like Assad. They, they hate Iran, but they don't like Islamists either. Right. The UAE was apparently kind of the last holdout, you know, in terms of trying to work with Assad. I think it was smart of the Syrians to, you know, do this in Saudi and frankly of the Saudis, we don't have much good to say, but I mean, you know, good to host this kind of gathering and I just would like to see the US follow suit because these sanctions aren't really accomplishing anything. People will argue that they're leverage to get HTS and Syrian leaders to be inclusive and to protect minority rights. But the European approach is the right one. You can snap all that back. If they start repressing minorities, you can sanction them. And the last thing I just want to reaffirm that we talked about a little bit is that let's not make the standard perfection here. Coming out of the Assad regime in the trauma civil war, this place is not going to look like a, you know, a paragon of democracy in six months if it's better and than it was and they're trying to do the right thing. We shouldn't be holding them to like impossible standards either. Yeah, because that's what happens sometimes with this stuff for sure.

[Tommy Vitor]

And I think I heard the German foreign minister talk about like the need for a peace dividend for the people of Syria. Like gotta make life better for them post Assad. That has got to be the near term priority. And the rest, the democratic process is going to take some time. Writing a constitution is going to take some time.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, you were that guy too. Like we, we're not in a hurry to have a president down there. I mean not to, you know, it's a totally different comparison. You know, they're like, be nice to not have a president here. Like, yeah, like I'll go pick up the trash, you know.

[Tommy Vitor]

Right, right. Well, speaking of place that didn't have a president, let's talk about neighboring Lebanon for a bit. They now have a president. They now have a prime minister after two years of the caretaker government. So you can get a lot done with the caretaker government or actually getting nothing done. General Joseph Awen is commander of the Lebanese military and is required by Lebanon's sectarian power sharing agreement. He's a Maronite Christian. He was elected in the second round of voting with 99 votes out of the 128, and will resign from his position as army chief to take on the job. It was his job to then appoint a Sunni Muslim prime minister and he chose Nawaf Salam, whose job it is to now form a government for those who don't. Lebanon has a very strict sectarian power sharing setup where the President has to be a Maronite Christian prime minister, is a Sunni Muslim, the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Muslim. The list goes on and on and on. Salaam is an interesting background. He's a former diplomat. He's a current head of the UN's International Court of Justice. But the big thing to note in all of this is how weakened Hezbollah seems to be after Israel basically decapitated its entire leadership structure. Neither candidate was Hezbollah's first choice. Awin even promised in a speech to Parliament that he would, quote, monopolize the carrying of weapons, end quote, to the Lebanese state. So an allusion to disarming Hezbollah. Obviously it's a good thing that, one, Lebanon now is a government, two, it's a government that Hezbollah doesn't like. The thing I'm trying to figure out, and maybe it's unknowable, is whether this is a durable change and whether Hezbollah is permanently weakened or whether they're just going to buy their time, the Iranians will slowly feed them money and weapons and it will just kind of re emerge.

[Ben Rhodes]

That is the question. I mean, the headline from all these government formation moves in Lebanon is the marginalization relatively of Hezbollah and the breaking of the logjam in Lebanese politics because of that marginalization of Hezbollah together with what's happened in Syria. This is a massive shift in the Levant, you know, and that's good. That said, it's the Middle east and Lebanon has massive problems. I mean, the financial crisis doesn't begin to describe it. And so the question is, can this government, you know, both can Hezbollah regenerate, but also can this government perform or else they're going to be blamed in a year or two years too. So another reason to try to have the, you know, Europe and the Middle east probably taking the lead and trying to help stabilize the Lebanese economy.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, so those are some of the situations that Trump's inheriting in Middle East. We want to talk a bit about the political situation in Europe that lays at the feet of the Trump administration and kind of what that means for the world. So we're going to start with Croatia, Austria and Germany and then kind of Expand it out. In Croatia, the current president, Zoran Milanovic, was reelected in a landslide with 74% of the vote. The quick and dirty on this guy is he is pro Russia, anti support for Ukraine, and a harsh critic of the European Union. Milanovic often gets compared to Trump, though. I think it's more like style than substance. But the Croatian presidency is not a, it's a ceremonial job largely. But I think his margin of victory, 74%, I think gives you a pretty good sense of the, the way the political winds are blowing in this European Union NATO country. And that's something I think we should just clock. And then in Austria, it is increasingly likely that the government will shift dramatically to the far right. Herbert Kiko's Freedom Party got the most votes. And last week Kiko was given the chance to form a coalition and see if he can become the next Chancellor of Austria. The Freedom Party has promised to ban Islam, expel migrants, including ones who have become Austrian citizens. By the way, Kiko likes to attack the eu. He opposes support for Ukraine and he wants to roll back policies to prevent climate change. So he opposes everything, everything I care about. But even that like kind of policy list doesn't get at how extreme these guys are. Kiko has repeatedly used Nazi era slogans and language that he knows are Nazi. You know, he knows the dog whistle he's, he's using here. And the Freedom Party itself was founded in the 1950s by former members of the SS. So there's nothing subtle about these guys. And then finally, Ben, Germany has elections coming up on February 23rd. Most political analysts believe that Friedrich Mertz from the Christian Democratic Union or cdu, Merkel's party, will win and go into coalition with the Social Democrats. But who knows? These right wing parties keep outperforming their polling. And the AfD, the far right, extremely far right party in Germany, is currently sitting at about 22%. The AfD platform is also super right wing. Deportation of asylum seekers, exiting the euro, leaving the Paris climate accord. So similar to Austria. But this is the political context for Trump 2.0, right? We talked about this last week. Justin Trudeau out far right Austrians and Germans in like that's not a good setup.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, the die hard world. Those who listen to the election series might remember Zach Beauchamp from Vox was on, on democracy. And I remember something stuck in my head because I asked him what would be the worst thing for democracy about a Trump win. And I had some answers in my head and he said the AfD in Germany, which is actually not the first answer I had. And his point was that Trump's victory could kind of normalize the idea that a seemingly extremist right wing politics can be in the mainstream. And I think what I take away, where there's differences between these three, the commonality is people are just, they're pissed off in Europe in the same way that they're pissed off here. There's a kind of anti incumbency, anti establishment, anti institutions, anti Covid, anti migration. Yeah, post Covid, anti migration vibe. That is the predominant momentum in European politics right now. That's the first point. There are different degrees. The Croatian guy's kind of bit more of a personality than like a deep ideologue. And he's worryingly, you know, kind of seemingly pro Russian and anti EU and stuff. But you know, he has beef with the Prime Minister. The Austrians. Let's just be clear, Tommy. You don't like Nazis starting in Austria, right? No, this is.

[Tommy Vitor]

Or finishing in Germany.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah. Nazism that begins in Austria and then moves to Germany has traditionally been a very bad thing. And I was making a little bit light, but to take it seriously, like this is like, you know, the mask is off here. These guys are like super scary, creepy, far right guys who've party built. Like they didn't come out of nowhere. Like they've been working their way to this. And the risk of this jumping into Germany through the AfD and making significant inroads in the election is scary. I think what it also means is the EU is going to have a hell of a time. I mean, for those who don't follow the eu, it's most major decisions are like, require a degree of unanimity, there's veto powers and things like that. With Hungary, Slovakia and dominoes potentially falling, I think one of the things we're gonna have to watch the next few years, and you and I were talking about this, is that some things are gonna have to be done by kind of collections of like minded countries. Things like support for Ukraine, for instance. You know, the countries that are not going this route may need to find ways to do things collectively that are harder to do through the institutions of the European Union because you're going to see some fracturing. And Trump is probably going to accelerate that by his own personality.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. And so like, you know, liberal minded leaders in Europe are going to have to deal with Donald Trump and they're going to have to deal with these right wing parties in Europe. But the other kind of grenade that America is just kind of rolling into the equation is Elon Musk.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

Because he's become the biggest booster of the AfD. He's doing it mostly on Twitter, but he also wrote a. Not bad. We discussed some of this last week, but the New York Times had a great piece where they wrote, they reported that AfD members are getting such a big boost from Elon Musk on Twitter on X that they've started tweeting in English and not German in hopes of getting noticed by him.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

And last week, Elon Musk did a Twitter spaces chat with this AFD leader who wants to be Chancellor. Her name is Alice Vital. During that conversation, Musk repeated his endorsement of the AfD party. And then he asked her a bunch of softball questions. I sadly listened to some of this as I was sitting in Laguna having escaped. My kids were taking a nap. So what else would I do?

[Ben Rhodes]

As one does the AfD.

[Tommy Vitor]

Very soon into this interview, Vital goes into this just absurd revisionist history about Hitler and the Nazis. She was claiming that Hitler was not right wing, but was actually a communist and a socialist. In case you're wondering, that is nonsense.

[Ben Rhodes]

The opposite. Hitler used the threat of communism to get all the industrialists to finance his far right politics.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. Like Hitler was an ultra nationalist. He was a fascist. He threw leftists, communist socialists into concentration camps and murdered them.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

Dumb and. Or dishonest people often point to the full name of the Nazi party, the National Socialist German Workers Party, and claim the inclusion of the word socialist means that Hitler was a lefty. But I would recommend you look at actions, not words there. Actions like executing communists and then invading the Soviet Union.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. And purging social democrats and like literally mobilizing like your support by fear mongering about the left.

[Tommy Vitor]

Right, right. But so Elon's response to Vital claiming that Hitler was a leftist was quote. Yeah, very much so. They nationalized industries like crazy. And so just an important thing to understand about the AfD in Germany is they, they get support consistently. Right now their polling is at 22% or so. But what has kept them out of power is all these other parties refusing to normalize them, refusing to go into coalition with them.

[Ben Rhodes]

Literally labeled under German law as extremists.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. And the concern is, and you have AfD party members saying this, the fact that Elon likes them is normalizing them and making the, the, you know, intra German efforts to ostracize them look ridiculous.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

And that is really dangerous long term.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. The world's richest guy, who is kind of an icon to A bunch of people and is seated at the right hand of the president. United States is the ultimate normalization seal that can be granted. And he's just playing with. I mean, this is a problem with Trumpism generally. Like, it connects all the way back to some of the crazy shit Hegseth said. They're playing with, like, historical forces that you kind of can control when you unleash them. This brand of nationalism, far right politics, nativism, us versus them stuff. I mean, they think they can control it. And, you know, there were a bunch of German industrialists who thought they could control Hitler when he was back in Austria. And that's not how it ended.

[Tommy Vitor]

No. Do you see also the Bloomberg News reported that Chinese officials are considering selling the kind of US TikTok assets to Elon Musk if they can't fend off this plan to ban TikTok at the. At the Supreme Court. So just. That would just hand that guy.

[Ben Rhodes]

Imagine that guy controls and TikTok crazy.

[Tommy Vitor]

I mean, it's weird that Steve Bannon is now calling Musk truly evil and he's vowing to take him down. There is this kind of intra mega fighting, but, you know, I just saw a report that Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are going to be sitting like, on the dais at Trump's inauguration. So it doesn't seem like Bannon's winning then.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, you know, Ian Bremmer talks about this is pretty interesting about it. Essentially, it is the case that there are these deep ideological differences underneath the umbrella of maga, you know?

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, for sure.

[Ben Rhodes]

Between the kind of guys the tech and the tech guys want to. Yeah, you've talked about this and. But this is actually globally the case too. Like, there are different flavors of the far right, you know, and Bannon really is a tear it all down guy, and Elon really is a regulatory capture. Make a lot of money and disrupt things guy. And those are different ideologies. Ultimately, the problem is the weakness of all these institutions. Right. Like the weakness of the French government and the German government. And, you know, the US Government is kind of creating an opening for. We're going to be living with the outcome of a intra maga civil war that we don't get a vote in.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, yeah. Speaking of the French government, the New York Times also reported that Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign. Was he chairman? I think he was a chairman. Not manager. Chairman.

[Ben Rhodes]

I don't get that title.

[Tommy Vitor]

Well, he's back on the scenes. He's pitching his services Again, remember, this guy went to jail for financial crimes, violating foreign lobbying laws, and then Trump pardoned him. But the Times reported that Manafort has pitched his services to a French billionaire who is known for boosting right wing political parties in France, including Marine Le Pen and the National Rally Party. Yeah, so that's the election we have to look forward to in 2027, the next thing down the pike.

[Ben Rhodes]

So a lot of podside the world.

[Tommy Vitor]

Content, a lot of bad content. Finally, before we get to Ben's interview, we did just want to explain to you guys why the civility police are toasting at Cafe Milano this week after some major, major bipartisan news. So President Biden announced that the next two Gerald R. Ford class nuclear powered aircraft carriers will be named after two great former presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Because I personally can think of no one better to name a piece of massive military hardware after than the President who led us into Iraq and is responsible for. For tens of thousands of US Service members being killed or wounded in a completely unnecessary war of choice.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, you know, when you have these deployments we have to talk about, and it's like, you know, the USS George W. Bush is off the coast of the Persian Gulf, you know, for nine months. That's. That's a good message. You know, I don't know, Tommy. I'm just gonna go there, you know, for the. Maybe we're far enough along into the show that the political reporters have tuned out, but Barack H. Obama did not get a fucking, you know, personnel carrier named after him. Joe Biden did seem to revel, I mean, in eulogizing Jimmy Carter and paying tribute to George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, this one other former president that, you know what I think, who, by the way, could give a shit. There's probably no one who would care less about, you know, getting things named after him. Ships in Barack Obama.

[Tommy Vitor]

It is kind of weird to name ships after former presidents and people. It's like imagine if you had a ship named after you and it was just like launching missiles at some, you know.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. What would you want named after you?

[Tommy Vitor]

I don't know, like the worst bridge in my hometown in denim.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, that's a. That's a good question. I would do with like one of those benches in Central Park.

[Tommy Vitor]

Oh, those are cool.

[Ben Rhodes]

Plaque on it.

[Tommy Vitor]

Can you buy those? Is that like a charitable.

[Ben Rhodes]

You can buy those.

[Tommy Vitor]

That's a nice idea.

[Ben Rhodes]

I should do that one of these days for my parents.

[Tommy Vitor]

That's a good question.

[Ben Rhodes]

What would I want Obama's got actually a lot of stuff here in la. Yeah, he's got Barack Obama Boulevard is actually a real street. There's like a Barack and Michelle Obama Institute in on Lincoln Boulevard.

[Tommy Vitor]

What happens there?

[Ben Rhodes]

That's. I don't know what happens. I drive by it all the time. I'm always like, what goes on in there? You know? So Obama's doing fine?

[Tommy Vitor]

No, no, he's fine. He doesn't need a aircraft carrier. But I did think it was a funny story. Aircraft, George Bush, like, oh good. Hopefully we can launch another world choice from this thing.

[Ben Rhodes]

Doing a belly tap.

[Tommy Vitor]

Oh good. Okay, we're gonna take a quick break. When we come back, you're gonna hear Ben's interview with Ian Bremmer about all the geopolitical risk in the world. So stick around for that. This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all in one website platform for entrepreneurs to stand out and succeed online. Whether you're just starting out or managing a growing brand, Squarespace makes it easy to create a beautiful website, engage with your audience, and sell anything from products to content to time. All in one place. All on your terms. Introducing Design Intelligence from Squarespace Combining two decades of industry leading design expertise with cutting edge AI technology to unlock your strongest creative potential, Design Intelligence empowers anyone to build a beautiful, more personalized website tailored to their unique needs and craft a bespoke digital identity to use across one's entire online presence. Squarespace Payments is the easiest way to manage your payments in one place. With Squarespace, onboarding is fast and simple. Get started in just a few clicks and start receiving payments right away. Plus, give your customers more ways to pay with popular payment methods like Klarna, ACH Direct Debit, Apple Pay, Afterpay, and ClearPay connect major social and multimedia accounts to your website in a few clicks as icons, direct links, or embedded feeds. Build visitor trust while updating content only where you need it, extending your brand's footprint. Sellers can also sync their product catalog directly with Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and Google. To reach more customers and reduce the steps for purchase, head to squarespace.com for a free trial. When you're ready to Launch, go to squarespace.comworld to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. That's squarespace.com world. This AI moment hits different it's the first technology designed not just to serve us, but to be us. I'm Baratunde Thurston and on my new video podcast Life With Machines, I'm going to talk to all kinds of folks. The people hitting the gas pedal on this transition and those trying to pump the brakes. Watch and listen to life with machines powered by Lenovo in partnership with intel. Intel Core Ultra 7 processor powering Intel V Pro. Lenovo.

[Ben Rhodes]

Lenovo. I'm very pleased to be joined by Ian Bremmer, who is the founder and president of the Eurasia Group, which recently released its report on the world's top risks for 2025. So, Ian, I know we've been talking for a while about you coming on, but this seemed like a apt time to look at risk. So welcome to podcast the world.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Yeah, I would say so. No, good to see you again, Ben, and happy to be with you.

[Ben Rhodes]

Okay, so we talk a lot about risk on this show and I think everybody feels some sense of foreboding as we head towards the inauguration here in a few days. I want to begin with what you describe as a top risk, which is essentially a G0 world, essentially the vacuum of leadership in the world. Talk a little bit about what you are trying to identify with that and how it might manifest in the year ahead.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

I'm looking at a world where the United States is unprepared to support a global order of collective security, free trade architecture, promotion of rule of law, democracy, and no other country or group of countries can step in to do same. And I think it's been coming for a long time. There are lots of reasons why the US led global order has been starting to erode and fall apart. One is that, you know, Russia, when the Soviet Union collapsed, didn't integrate into the west, into NATO, into the eu. Irrespective of who you blame for that, the Russians blame the US they're angry about it. And now they're allied with like other chaos actors like North Korea and Iran. The Chinese were integrated, particularly into the global economy, but on the presumption by the west, by the US Especially, that as they got wealthier, they would integrate into our value system, into our worldview. They'd become as, as we called it, and you've called it, responsible stakeholders. They have gotten a lot more powerful and wealthier, but they have not integrated. They've not accepted an American worldview. And instead something really interesting has happened. The United States has increasingly adopted a Chinese worldview, much more transactional, much more about power, much more of the rule of the jungle. But Trump is saying, by the way, Chinese, Russia, you think you guys can play that well, we can play that game a lot better than you can. And we're going to get everybody to line up the way we want to. And so now you have the confluence of those three things together at a time when the United States has consolidated a lot of power, both politically, because the GOP is riding Trump's coattails, not the other way around in 2017, because he's appointed all these loyalists in his administration, as opposed to establishment Republican figures who were much more independent in 2017. But also because the US is in such a better position than so many other countries. Its adversaries are much weaker. Russia's in serious decline. Iran has just lost its empire in the Middle East. China's in the worst economic position since the 90s, maybe even the 70s. And America's allies not only are in an economically, technologically, and militarily much worse position, but their governments are also much weaker, much more fragmented, as we see with, like, South Korea and Germany and France and Canada all imploding right now, and even other governments like Japan and the UK Facing huge, huge headwinds. So for all of those reasons, the top risk this year is not about one leader, about one country. It's really structural. Right. And it's going to manifest in so many different ways with so many different actors around the world.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. It's interesting, in looking at your report, and I wanted to step back and have this kind of conversation with you, you referenced the. Or there is a historical analogy. The 30s, obviously, the pre World War II period, the onset of the Cold War, which obviously felt like a very dangerous time. I might add to that, even like the Pre World War I days. And in the sense that you have these competing great powers without an order governing it. And I wonder what you make of the fact that you already have Russia and Ukraine. You've got the Taiwan hotspot as a potential for Chinese military action. We've obviously been living through a period of war in the Middle East. And now you have Trump threatening territorial aggression again in Greenland and Panama. As much as people may laugh at that, I take it kind of seriously. What do you see as the risk of this kind of increasing great power aggression, throwing your weight around in your neighborhood, leading to a risk of actual great power conflict? Because usually in history, when great powers start with territorial ambitions, they end up bumping into each other. How do you equate that risk for 2025?

[Alyssa Slotkin]

So I've got three different things I can say here. One is that traditionally, when we talk about that kind of changing global order leading to great power conflict, it's because one great power is declining and another great power is rising. And, you know, we talk about that as the Thucydides trap. Graham Allison wrote that, you know, a big book about 10 years ago here. The United States is not declining at all other than its political system. But, I mean, certainly not in its ability to project power around the world, which Trump is very interested in doing. So I don't see that. In fact, right now, China is much more inclined to try to cut deals with countries because they're weak. I mean, we see that on India. They just had the first summit meeting in over five years, and they withdrew from their contested border to try to improve diplomatic and economic relations. Same thing with their outreach to Japan. Same thing with their outreach to the Europeans, to other countries around the world. So there's. And Russia, of course, is in very severe decline. That's another very specific problem. And Russia and China do not have an alliance, in my view, even though their, Their. Their interests geopolitically are in many ways aligned and overlapping. They're all. There are also many persons. I would not put Russia in the same camp as Tony Blinken did in his recent Foreign affairs piece with North Korea, Russia and Iran. I think China's in a separate camp than that in a different camp. They're an adversary, they're a competitor, but they're not a chaos actor, and they're not always an enemy. So I would. But. So that's one point. But the second point, as to where we are now heading compared to these adversaries that are other major powers with military designs on parts of the world. China with Taiwan and the South China Sea, Russia with Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, the Balts, all that kind of stuff. Areas of the Balts is that, yes, I accept the idea that the Americans have been promoting rule of law and American exceptionalism, which was frequently hypocritical and not always well executed on and certainly not always well implemented. And the Russians and Chinese would constantly call us hypocritical. And instead, we're now saying, actually, no. You know, we got. We're all just power players. And that provides. I mean, what Trump is saying about the Panama Canal is very analogous to the arguments that Putin has made about Crimea.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, right.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Very analogous. And completely undermines territorial integrity and sovereignty and the United nations with the. Which the US Created. Right. All of that stuff. So, on the one hand, I completely agree with where your question is going there. On the other, the United States is not prepared, in my view, not under Biden and not under Trump, to allow Russia to take over Ukraine. And in fact, Trump has been pushing European allies to spend a lot more money on defense, and they feel more urgency with that under Trump than they did under Biden. You know, Mark Ruta Talking about a 3% GDP defense spend across the board, and I assume they are going to make progress on that. From the European leaders I've spoken with, that's not something Putin wants. And, you know, taking a few months to get Ukraine in a stronger position to negotiate with Russia is not what Putin wants. And it's not at all clear to me that even though Putin clearly prefers Trump in many ways to Biden and Harris and the money that they spent in disinformation campaigns showed that to be the case, it is not clear to me that they suddenly get a free ride, you know, a hall pass on their territorial ambitions. Now that the Americans have said, okay, we're all about rule of the jungle. And, and with China as well, I think the China, the Chinese, I think, were really concerned about Trump coming in. And clearly the Iranians. Right. If.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

I mean, yeah, you didn't ask about Iran, but I mean, let's face it, given where Israel is and given, you know, Trump's support of Israel in an even more strident fashion than the Biden administration had, you can easily see that Iran might feel like they're going to face being taken out their nuclear program, at least by the US and by Israel. I don't think that's gonna happen, but I think it's plausible.

[Ben Rhodes]

Right.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Especially over four years of a Trump term.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. So on Trump, I mean, he. He occupies a couple spots on your list. One that has to do. Yeah. And I think it's, you know, accurate to separate out. One is essentially that there. There are no checks on his power this time around. He's got a cabinets, you know, today we're talking, it's Pete Hegsest confirmation hearing. That is not Jim Mattis. And you can look across the board. It's loyalist. The Republican Party is completely in his image now, unlike in 2017. And then you talk about his economic policies. I mean, one could listen to you and say, well, maybe Trump's onto something. It's a transactional world. Let's discard with the hypocrisy and just throw our weight around where we feel like it's. On the other hand, though, this brand of leadership tends to go to dark places. I mean, what are you most worried about as we approach inauguration in terms of what a second Trump term could do for global stability and really the lives of people here in the U.S.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Well, I'm probably most worried about something long term, which is that a transactional US that is going to leverage its power in ways that will build a series of hub and spoke relations that work better for the US which by the way, is the Chinese worldview. Over the last 30 years, that's what they've done.

[Ben Rhodes]

Belt Road initiative from the U.S. right. The, the Gulf, you know, some places in Asia, some places in Latin America. Yeah, yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

And the US dominates in AI and the Chinese dominate in, you know, post carbon energy transition. And those are the two most structurally important technological drivers of like humanity for the next 20 years. Like it's. That. That is interesting and I might be. I don't like it. It does not resonate with me personally. It doesn't touch my soul. It's not who I am as a human. But as a political scientist, I can see how that kind of a strategy could be quite successful if it could be like China's implemented strategically over a long period of time, which America's cannot be.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Because the United States has an election every two years and a presidential every four. And there are constraints on Trump in the sense that the elections are run by states and they can't be easily rigged. And there is a professional military and there is an appointed judiciary which is independent. And that is still true no matter how many challenges and no matter how much erosion we've seen. And so the ability of Trump to ensure that if the Dems take the House in two years, which looks reasonably likely to me, that he's still gonna be able to implement the way he can for the next two, seems very constrained. And after he's gone, when he's 82, and how much influence would he have even if a Republican won? I would say very hard to implement a policy like that. And that means that you have thrown away so much of what the US has worked to build. I mean, these institutions that are now going to be on defense and maybe on life support, because the Americans are gonna beat em up and ignore them. And you know, first and foremost, the ICC, the International Criminal Court. Right. Which the U.S. hasn't even joined, but also like the WTO, the World Health Organization, the U.N. if we choose not to provide dues anymore, and the Chinese are going to do it, they'll pay dues. So they'll have vastly more influence over who's appointed in the secretariat and keep positions for global governance and regulation, which is really important. Lots of places like, I, I certainly don't want to cede influence over us created US led organizations in return for a policy that we can't even implement on for a period of 10 or 20 years. Well, might it, I don't want to.

[Ben Rhodes]

Do that to be cynical. Might it also just be kind of a corruption period like Trump is going to, you know, through his associates and family members, enrich himself in the Gulf and in other parts of the world? I mean, sometimes are we applying too much strategic vision to Trump when it may just be some bottom line corruption that's going to take place?

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Well, certainly in his first term there was corruption. And I mean, look, there's been corruption in lots of US Administrations on both sides of the aisle and also in my own mayor in New York City right now. I mean, Jesus, like, there's plenty, Right. But if I look at what I see as particularly unusual about Trump, that really sets him aside from other American leaders. It's not his level of corruption. Right. I mean, because it's not actually, we're not talking about huge numbers. It's not for the leader of the so called free world. It's not really strategic corruption.

[Tommy Vitor]

Right.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

I mean, it's not like, I mean, Elon operates at a different level and he's going to make a hell of a lot more.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. I want to get his alignment with Trump. We're going to get to that. Yeah, we're going to get to that.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

But for Trump himself, I would know. I mean, when I look at strategic corruption, I look at like the Indian military industrial complex over the last generation, like that strategic corruption. Right.

[Ben Rhodes]

Jared Kushner collecting a few billion dollars in the Gulf is different than creating institutions that are entirely corrupted to serve.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Clearly.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

And Trump, I mean, saying Ivanka can get some handbags in China license and you know, that, that foreign leaders should pay full rack rate at a Trump hotel when they go do a conference, like that's just not strategic corruption. I, I, Trump spends so much more time on other stuff than he does on how to enrich himself, which is interesting. Right. As president. And I think where Trump is really unique is in having zero interest in promoting US Values or even believing that US Values exist. I think he's fundamentally far more transactional.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

And far more oriented towards getting deals done one on one. Well, that's where he's really unique.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. So this leads to the last thing I wanted to ask you about, which is, you know, you are someone who's out there kind of on the circuit. You know, in addition, talking to political leaders, you engage a lot with like business leaders, you know, the kind of people turn up at, you know, Davos or the Shangri La dialogue in Singapore. And one of the things I'm struck by is over, say, the last 20 years, like my time in active politics, those people were kind of stakeholders in the system, in the international order that kind of created the umbrella of security for them to make enormous profits. And yet we've seen all these problems, from climate change to massive and growing wealth inequality to technological disruption. The kinds of things that breed disorder, breed, frankly, kind of fiscal bubbles. I think I have some concerns. I'm not usually a fiscal person, but I don't really like what I'm seeing in terms of the US Right now. What do you make of Elon is the extreme example, but what happened to the responsible business leader? Because it does feel like we have a global elite that is, I don't know if they are following the political elites or leading them, but that are assuming a degree of risk that feels irrational to me. With their, you know, backing Trump, you know, everybody bending the knee. How would you describe the mindset of the kind of business leader who, you know, 15 years ago, they might like low taxes and less regulation, but they wanted a stable international system to endure. Those people now seem to be. Look, we'll take Elon as the extreme example, far more willing to be disruptors. Why is that?

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Well, I think that most CEOs that I know would still prefer a stable US led globalized system where capital and goods and services and people can move freely with little friction because they make a lot more money in that environment and they would like smaller government and they would like regulatory capture by them. That is still the baseline. And there are things they like about Trump and the things they generally like about Trump are not his being a chaos actor. The thing they like about Trump is the fact that he lowered taxes in 2017 and will extend that for businesses and for high net worth individuals. And that he's also pulled back on regulation, which they intend to do with doge, and they'll have some success on. More success than taking money out of the budget. And they also want to just generally reduce regulation to allow the private sector to do more. That's pretty consistent. What is problematic is the fact that the US political system, unlike other advanced industrial economies, has increasingly become captured by moneyed special interests.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, so like a post Citizens United kind of world world. Yeah, yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

I mean, it's a two, $3 billion, two year election, which, I mean, that's way out of whack with every other advanced industrial economy. When you, as Elon, spend $250 million on a presidency, you expect a significant return. And I think he will be richly rewarded. But it's not just him. It's everywhere. And it's not just big business. It's also any special interest that can coordinate and get money, whether it's the NRA or whether it's AIPAC or whether it's, you know, your local police union. I mean, these are your problems.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

And so, I mean, I think that what, and what that has engendered is a large number of Americans that really believe that their leaders do not represent them. And it's much more toxic, it's much more potentially violent. It is obviously driven algorithmically in ways that are very dangerous for the United States and for the American citizens. And what's interesting about Trump, what I find unique about Trump, especially after this election, is that there's a real gap that is emerging between what I would call Dark Maga and Deep Maga. You know, where Dark Maga, Elon Musk, and you've got all of these, you know, quote unquote, shadowy forces that have a lot of money. And what they want is to capture the state.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

And they want it to work for them. They want to be as small as possible and let them just go and just make a lot of money. And they want their H1Bs and they're globalists and they're willing to give, you know, some, some, some meat, some red meat to the base on Anti DEI and the rest. But that's not what really excites them. That's not why they're going to give their money. They're going to give their money because they're going to make a shit ton.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Doing that. But then you've got Deep Maga. Right. Which actually wants more benefits from the state. They hate the idea that these corporates on the uniparty, they believe it's all a uniparty and that the Mark Zuckerbergs don't care who they give to. Elon Musk used to be a Dem, too, and they're very, very skeptical of all of that. They want a government that works for them. Now, there's alignment on these issues in terms of, let's say, getting rid of illegal immigrants. There's alignment, but there's. And there's some alignment as well in America first ism in terms of industrial policy. Yeah, but there's, but there's less alignment every day. I mean, Lord knows there's less alignment when Luigi Mangione kills the CEO of UnitedHealth.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

There's less alignment and that's a, that's a dangerous place to be.

[Ben Rhodes]

Right.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

I mean, we've, we're used to this happening outside the U.S. yeah. Like, we're used to, you blow up, you go into Iraq, you go into Afghanistan, you do nothing with the Palestinians and you see a lot of Islamic extremist terrorism. Like, we're used to that.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

But we're not used to playing that out with, within the American political system, like completely homegrown. We're not talking about lone wolves here. We're talking about people that are deeply uncomfortable that their system has been stolen by powerful elites with access.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

And that is a place where the US Political system is uniquely broken.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. Well, look, that's a really good answer and good note to end on. And I agree. I mean, watching The Steve Bannon vs Elon Musk side of this, to shorthand, it is going to be very interesting. Ian, thanks for joining us. Can check out your report on Global Risk from the Eurasia Group. Look forward to keeping in touch in the future.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Thanks, Ben. Glad to have, glad to be on.

[Tommy Vitor]

Thanks again, Ian Bremmer, for joining the show. And thanks to you, our listeners, for tuning in and for all of you who donated money to our California Wildfire disaster relief fund because it has been horrible here and a lot of people need help.

[Ben Rhodes]

And a lot of people need help. I mean, it's, we're in for a bumpy ride and we got a little awful early reality here. So thanks for, for doing that. Do anything you can do. There are going to be people that right now are evacuated, but they're still going to be in dire straits in a few weeks when the, you know, Anderson Cooper's not here anymore.

[Tommy Vitor]

So. That's right.

[Ben Rhodes]

You know, keep the eye on L. A.

[Tommy Vitor]

If you want to get ad free episodes, exclusive content and more, consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription [e-mail] SL friends, don't forget to follow us at Crooked Media on Instagram, TikTok and Twitter for more original content, host takeovers and other community events. Plus, find Pod Save the World on YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content and more. If you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping a review. Pod Save the World is a Crooked Media production. Our producer is Alona Minkowski. Our associate producer is Michael Goldsmith. Our executive producers are me, Tommy Vitor and Ben Rhodes. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick and engineer by Vasily Svitopoulos. Audio support by Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Madeline Herringer is our head of news and programming. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Andy Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Phoebe Bradford, William Jones, Hiril Palaviv, and Molly Lobel, who upload our episodes and videos to YouTube.com podsavetheworld our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America. East this AI moment hits different it's the first technology designed not just to serve us, but to be us. I'm Baratunde Thurston and on my new video podcast, Life With Machines, I'm going to talk to all kinds of folks, the people hitting the gas pedal on this transition and those trying to pump the brakes. Watch and listen to Life with Machines powered by Lenovo in partnership with intel. Intel Core Ultra 7 processor powering Intel V Pro, Lenovo Lenovo what's Poppin listeners? I'm Laci Mosley, host of the podcast Scam Goddess, the show that's an ode.

[Ben Rhodes]

To fraud and all those who practice it.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

Each week I talk with very special.

[Tommy Vitor]

Guests about the scammiest scammers of all time. Wanna know about the fake errors?

[Ben Rhodes]

We got em.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

What about a career con man? We've got them too.

[Tommy Vitor]

Guys that will wine and dine you and then steal all your coins. Oh, you know they are represented because representation matters.

[Alyssa Slotkin]

I'm joined by guests like Nicole byer, Ira Madison III, Conan O'Brien, and more.

[Tommy Vitor]

Join the congregation and listen to Scam Goddess. Wherever you get your podcasts.