Pod Save the World
Episode: Election 2024: Cooperation, Competition, or War with China?
Release Date: October 26, 2024
Host/Author: Crooked Media

Introduction to the Geopolitical Landscape

In this pivotal episode of Pod Save the World, Ben Rhodes and Tommy Vietor delve deep into the intricate and high-stakes relationship between the United States and China, especially in the context of the upcoming 2024 U.S. election. As China solidifies its position as the United States' primary global competitor, the hosts explore whether the future will be shaped by cooperation, competition, or potential conflict with Beijing.

The Rise of China as a Global Power

Ben Rhodes outlines China's meteoric rise, highlighting its position as the world's second-largest economy and its substantial investments in clean energy and cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). He emphasizes China's military modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal, coupled with strategic initiatives such as BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aim to challenge the U.S.-led international order.

[00:54] Ben Rhodes: "That's the relationship between the United States and China. There is no question that China has emerged as the biggest competitor to the United States for global influence."

Since Xi Jinping's ascent to power in 2013, China's stance towards the U.S. has grown increasingly antagonistic, particularly evident in contentious areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The rhetoric around "strategic competition" has become a bipartisan focal point in American politics, especially since Donald Trump's 2016 election victory.

Trump vs. Biden/Harris: Divergent Approaches to China

Ryan Haas initiates a comparative analysis of former President Donald Trump's "get tough" approach versus President Biden's strategic investment and alliance-building strategies.

Ben Rhodes explains the duality of Trump's China policy:

[06:11] Ben Rhodes: "His first term approach... there were really two Trump policies. On one hand, you have Trump, who sort of has this fetish for Xi Jinping... and then who could forget Xi Jinping, you have chocolate cake, you got Mar-a-Lago."

Trump's administration focused on aggressive trade measures, notably the phase one trade deal, which aimed to have China purchase more American goods—a commitment that ultimately fell short. However, Trump's personal rapport with Xi Jinping was marked by unusual warmth, exemplified by meetings characterized by informal settings like Mar-a-Lago.

In contrast, the Biden administration has maintained and expanded upon Trump's tough stance but has emphasized strengthening alliances and investing domestically to bolster competitiveness:

[08:30] Ben Rhodes: "Number one is Biden's investment in America, right? [...] passing three big bills like that is complicated business."

Biden's approach includes significant investments through the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Additionally, Biden has prioritized reinvigorating alliances in Europe and Asia to present a united front against China's rising influence.

Economic Competition: Tariffs, Subsidies, and Trade Policies

The episode delves into the economic battleground between the U.S. and China, focusing on tariffs, intellectual property (IP) theft, and market manipulation.

Catherine Tai, U.S. Trade Representative, provides an in-depth analysis of the trade tensions:

[26:57] Catherine Tai: "American workers can outwork and outcompete anyone as long as the competition is fair. But for too long, it hasn't been fair."

The imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods began under the Trump administration as a response to alleged IP theft and forced technology transfers. The Biden administration has not only maintained these tariffs but has also introduced additional measures to protect American industries and promote fair competition.

Catherine Tai further elaborates on the issue of market flooding by Chinese manufacturers:

[30:42] Catherine Tai: "Overproduction... pulling the price down... selling at such low costs that producers in the receiving market... are driven out of the market."

China's strategy of producing goods at unsustainable low prices has adversely affected American industries, leading to job losses and depressed wages. The Biden administration aims to counteract these practices by leveling the playing field and ensuring that American workers and industries can thrive without unfair competition.

Technological Race: AI and Semiconductors

The technological competition between the U.S. and China is a critical aspect of their rivalry. Both nations are racing to dominate in AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotechnology.

Ben Rhodes warns of the challenges in establishing international norms around these technologies:

[13:26] Ben Rhodes: "Policymakers are going to privilege the competition side over the norm development side... the Chinese are just not interested in having a serious conversation about norms."

The U.S. currently leads in generative AI development, but China's advancements are significant and rapid. The hosts discuss the necessity of balancing competition with the need for international cooperation on regulating these powerful technologies to prevent misuse and ensure global stability.

The Taiwan Flashpoint: A Potential Catalyst for War

Ryan Haas and Kamala Harris discuss Taiwan's strategic importance and the looming threat of Chinese military actions.

Kamala Harris underscores Taiwan's critical role in the global economy, particularly in the semiconductor industry:

[45:15] Kamala Harris: "90% of the world's advanced chips are produced in Taiwan... a $10 trillion hit to the global economy."

Taiwan serves as a linchpin in global technology supply chains, and any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have catastrophic economic repercussions. Additionally, Taiwan is a symbol of democratic resilience, and its fate is intertwined with America's commitments to democracy and regional stability.

The discussion highlights the precarious balance the U.S. must maintain in supporting Taiwan's defense through arms sales while avoiding actions that could provoke China into military aggression. Kamala Harris emphasizes the importance of clear communication and maintaining peace and stability as paramount U.S. interests.

[49:13] Kamala Harris: "We need to sort of maintain clarity on what our first principles are... preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, period."

Implications for the 2024 Election

The episode makes a compelling case for how the U.S. presidential election will shape the future trajectory of U.S.-China relations. A Harris presidency is portrayed as a continuation and expansion of Biden's strategic and alliance-focused approach, aimed at strengthening domestic industries and global partnerships to effectively compete with China.

Conversely, a Trump presidency is depicted as potentially destabilizing, with unpredictable policies that could offer China more opportunities to reshape the global order in its favor. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's commitment to Taiwan and his transactional approach to China raises concerns about American credibility and the safety of democratic allies.

[19:06] Ben Rhodes: "If the US Goes down that road of exclusively a confrontational policy toward China... America loses credibility, a world in which America loses influence, loses market access."

The hosts stress that the stakes are incredibly high, not just for international relations but also for the domestic economy, technological leadership, and global stability.

Expert Insights: Evan Medeiros and Catherine Tai

Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian Studies at Georgetown University and former China policy overseer at the National Security Council, provides a broad perspective on U.S.-China relations. He identifies two fundamental questions in China policy:

1. How do you see the challenge?
2. What do you do about it?

While there is bipartisan agreement on the nature of the challenge posed by China, there remains significant divergence on the strategies to address it.

Catherine Tai elaborates on the U.S. approach to countering China's economic strategies. She criticizes the legacy of neoliberal policies that have favored globalization without ensuring fair competition, leading to negative impacts on American workers and industries.

[34:33] Catherine Tai: "We're pitting your middle class against someone else's middle class... How can we create different incentives in the world economy?"

Tai advocates for a redefined globalization that prioritizes sustainable and equitable economic practices, emphasizing strategic partnerships and selective sectors to set new global standards.

Conclusion and Looking Forward

As the episode progresses towards its conclusion, Ryan Haas and Ben Rhodes wrap up by reiterating the critical nature of the U.S.-China relationship and the profound implications the 2024 election holds. They preview the next episode, which will focus on climate change—a global crisis that demands international cooperation, contrasting sharply with the competitive and often adversarial stance taken towards China.

[45:15] Ben Rhodes: "Next we’re going to focus on the biggest potential flash point, the one that is most likely to lead to a war and a really big war potentially, and that is the future of Taiwan."

The episode emphasizes that the choices made in this election will not only shape bilateral relations but will have far-reaching consequences for global order, economic stability, and the preservation of democratic values worldwide.

Notable Quotes

• Ben Rhodes [00:54]: "That’s the relationship between the United States and China... China has emerged as the biggest competitor to the United States for global influence."

• Catherine Tai [26:57]: "American workers can outwork and outcompete anyone as long as the competition is fair. But for too long, it hasn't been fair."

• Ben Rhodes [10:13]: "I think a Trump presidency could be a huge opportunity for the Chinese... we're transitioning to a world that's really going to be constituted by three broad groupings."

• Kamala Harris [45:15]: "90% of the world's advanced chips are produced in Taiwan... a $10 trillion hit to the global economy."

• Kamala Harris [49:13]: "We need to sort of maintain clarity on what our first principles are... preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, period."

Final Thoughts

Pod Save the World adeptly navigates the complex terrain of U.S.-China relations, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the geopolitical tensions, economic battles, and strategic decisions at play. By incorporating expert analyses and firsthand insights from key policymakers, the episode equips its audience with the knowledge to grasp the high stakes involved in the 2024 election and the future of international relations.

For those seeking to comprehend the nuances of global power dynamics and their implications for American policy and everyday life, this episode serves as an essential resource.

To stay informed on these critical issues, consider subscribing to Pod Save the World for ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more by joining the Friends of the Pod community at crooked.com/friends.