Pod Save the World Episode Summary
Episode: Election 2024: Ukraine, Russia, and Whether the War Will End
Release Date: October 12, 2024
Host: Ben Rhodes
Guest Speakers: Ilya Ponomarenko, Celia Baylan, Nina Khrushcheva, Senator Chris Murphy

1. Introduction: The Geopolitical Stakes Ahead of the 2024 Election

In this pivotal episode of Pod Save the World, host Ben Rhodes delves into the intricate dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as it intertwines with the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Highlighting the prolonged struggle since Russia's invasion of Ukraine two and a half years ago, Rhodes sets the stage for an in-depth analysis of how the election could influence the war's trajectory and its broader implications for global democracy.

Ben Rhodes [01:10]: "We're looking at what the stakes are for foreign policy and for the world as a whole."

2. Ukraine’s Resilience and the Quest for International Support

Guest: Ilya Ponomarenko, Ukrainian War Journalist
Guest: Celia Baylan, European Council on Foreign Relations

Rhodes engages with Ukrainian journalist Ilya Ponomarenko and Celia Baylan to explore how Ukrainians have adapted to life in a war zone. Ponomarenko shares insights from his new book, emphasizing the resilience of Ukrainians who strive to maintain normalcy amidst ongoing conflict.

Celia Baylan [04:35]: "People try to have it as normal as possible, as close to normal as possible."

The discussion shifts to the Biden administration's support for Ukraine, balancing appreciation for the substantial aid provided against frustrations over delays in weapon deliveries and restrictions on striking deeper Russian targets. Baylan underscores the complexity of maintaining U.S. support while addressing American domestic concerns.

Celia Baylan [07:03]: "It's hard to stay within the margins of this balance... we do not see a plan for the future, a clear objective of how that works."

3. The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Race: Harris vs. Trump

As the election approaches, Rhodes examines the contrasting foreign policy approaches of potential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. He discusses Ukraine's negotiating position and the implications of each candidate’s policies on the conflict's resolution.

Celia Baylan [09:51]: "The only possible way to coerce Russia... is to effectively disable Russia's very ability to wage the war."

The conversation delves into concerns surrounding a Trump presidency, particularly his critics like J.D. Vance who oppose continued assistance to Ukraine. Baylan expresses Ukrainian apprehensions about a Trump administration potentially withdrawing support, while also acknowledging some Ukrainians’ hope that Trump's unpredictability might offer alternative solutions.

Celia Baylan [12:38]: "Maybe this next guy who is so hard to predict... maybe who could be a better alternative."

4. Russia’s Calculated Response to U.S. Political Shifts

Guest: Nina Khrushcheva, Historian and Professor of International Affairs

Nina Khrushcheva provides a Russian perspective, analyzing how the Kremlin interprets the U.S. election and the potential benefits it perceives in a divided American leadership. She highlights Putin’s strategic positioning, observing that further deterioration in U.S.-Russia relations serves his regime's interests.

Nina Khrushcheva [21:03]: "They really do not expect the relationship between Russia and the United States to improve anytime soon."

Khrushcheva discusses the internal changes within Russia since the war's onset, noting a shift towards overt totalitarianism and the suppression of dissent. She emphasizes that as long as Putin remains in power, significant changes in Russian policy are unlikely.

Nina Khrushcheva [31:06]: "Russia changed. The media outlets were closed in the space of a week."

5. European Allies: Navigating U.S. Election Outcomes

Guest: Celia Baylan, European Council on Foreign Relations
Guest: Ilya Ponomarenko, Ukrainian War Journalist

The episode further explores how European allies perceive the U.S. election's potential outcomes. Celia Baylan articulates the varied European strategies to maintain security and support for Ukraine, regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins. These strategies include bolstering European defense industries and reinforcing bilateral security agreements with the U.S.

Celia Baylan [40:09]: "Europeans are fundamentally worried... nobody wants this to happen."

Ilya Ponomarenko adds that European nations are concerned about scenarios where the U.S. might reduce its commitment to NATO, fearing increased aggression from Russia towards Eastern European countries.

Ilya Ponomarenko [43:45]: "Number one priority for Europeans is really to keep the Americans committed to NATO."

6. Democracy Under Pressure: Lessons and Future Prospects

The discussion shifts to the broader implications of the U.S. election on global democracy. Ponomarenko reflects on historical parallels from his book about Nikita Khrushchev, suggesting that while autocratic regimes like Russia's are entrenched, there remains hope rooted in resilience and historical lessons.

Nina Khrushcheva [34:40]: "For every Stalin, there is a Khrushchev. And I think that really gives us a lot of hope."

Senator Chris Murphy contributes by stressing the necessity for the Harris administration to make a robust economic case for continued support to Ukraine, countering American fatigue over prolonged foreign conflicts.

Senator Chris Murphy [53:47]: "The Harris administration will have to supersize the efforts to try to make the parts of Ukraine... more economically profitable."

7. Conclusion: The Interconnected Future of U.S. and Global Policies

Rhodes wraps up by emphasizing the intertwined futures of the United States and its European allies, noting that mutual support is crucial not only for resolving the Ukraine conflict but also for addressing other global challenges like climate change, technology, and economic inequality.

Ben Rhodes [56:12]: "The long term consequences of the war and how it ends will impact the world we live in for generations."

He previews the next episode, which will focus on the conflict in the Middle East, highlighting the ongoing complexities and the pivotal role of the upcoming election in shaping global policy.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Ben Rhodes [01:10]: "We're looking at what the stakes are for foreign policy and for the world as a whole."

• Celia Baylan [04:35]: "People try to have it as normal as possible, as close to normal as possible."

• Celia Baylan [07:03]: "It's hard to stay within the margins of this balance... we do not see a plan for the future, a clear objective of how that works."

• Celia Baylan [09:51]: "The only possible way to coerce Russia... is to effectively disable Russia's very ability to wage the war."

• Celia Baylan [12:38]: "Maybe this next guy who is so hard to predict... maybe who could be a better alternative."

• Nina Khrushcheva [21:03]: "They really do not expect the relationship between Russia and the United States to improve anytime soon."

• Nina Khrushcheva [31:06]: "Russia changed. The media outlets were closed in the space of a week."

• Celia Baylan [40:09]: "Europeans are fundamentally worried... nobody wants this to happen."

• Ilya Ponomarenko [43:45]: "Number one priority for Europeans is really to keep the Americans committed to NATO."

• Nina Khrushcheva [34:40]: "For every Stalin, there is a Khrushchev. And I think that really gives us a lot of hope."

• Senator Chris Murphy [53:47]: "The Harris administration will have to supersize the efforts to try to make the parts of Ukraine... more economically profitable."

• Ben Rhodes [56:12]: "The long term consequences of the war and how it ends will impact the world we live in for generations."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and diverse perspectives presented in the episode, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape as the 2024 U.S. election approaches.