Iranian Regime Massacres Protesters, Will Trump Respond?

Summary

Pod Save the World – Episode Summary

Episode: Iranian Regime Massacres Protesters, Will Trump Respond?
Date: January 14, 2026
Hosts: Tommy Vietor, Ben Rhodes
Guest: Jason Rezaian

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode tackles the explosive situation in Iran, where mass protests have led to a violent crackdown by the regime, resulting in reports of massacres by Iranian security forces. The hosts break down what sparked the protests, how the regime is responding, and whether the US—under President Trump—will intervene militarily. The episode also examines the involvement of exiled Iranian royal Reza Pahlavi, the challenges of regime change in Venezuela, threats against Mexico and Cuba, and wraps up with an in-depth interview with journalist Jason Rezaian about Iran’s state and his time as a hostage. The episode’s tone is urgent, analytical, and occasionally darkly humorous as the hosts contend with the danger and complexity of rapidly evolving global events.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Massive Protests and Brutal Crackdown in Iran

[09:52 – 13:12]

• Protests erupted after Iran's currency crashed, triggered initially by Tehran shopkeepers.
• The demonstrations have expanded to all 31 provinces and cut across age, class, and regional lines, including working-class and conservative communities.
• Reports of a massacre: conflicting numbers ranging from regime's 2,000 dead to external estimates of 12,000–20,000 killed.
• State security used severe measures: birdshot to blind protesters, machine guns on crowds, hospital overload, and posted morgue footage as a warning.
• Internet blackout complicating communication and independent reporting; regime blames outside agitators but crackdown tactics are clear.

Notable Quote:
"It is not just women and people in cities like 2022. It is people in every part of the country, including, like working class, traditionally conservative Iranians. They are all just pissed off. They're pissed off about the economy..."
— Tommy Vietor (09:52)

2. Trump’s Response – Red Lines, Threats, and Inaction

[10:36, 11:09, 19:35, 21:24]

• Trump previously assured support for protesters, threatening to "rescue them" and meet regime officials.
• Trump imposed fresh tariffs, canceled meetings, and signaled help is “on the way.”
  — "All I say to them is help is on its way... make Iran great again" – Donald Trump (11:09)
• Despite threats (“if I kill protesters, I’m going to bomb you”), he hasn’t acted militarily, drawing criticism for encouraging protest without follow-through.
• Trump’s options: boosting opposition online, cyber attacks, more sanctions, or direct military strikes; Journal reporting he leans toward airstrikes but faces tactical limitations.

Notable Quote:
"He called on everybody to get out... He drew a red line... And he didn't do anything... And already potentially tens of thousands of people have died, and he just seems to get a pass on these things."
— Ben Rhodes (19:39)

3. What Makes These Protests Different?

[13:12 – 15:40, 75:19]

• These protests are not about a single issue—they’re holistic, encompassing economic collapse, corruption, and outright calls for regime change, not just reforms.
• Participants hail from all backgrounds, demonstrating broad and deep dissatisfaction.
• The regime's multiple security apparatuses (police, Basij, IRGC, army) are deployed, but worries persist about loyalty among rank-and-file soldiers.

Notable Quote:
"What's different about this is there's basically every reason for people to be protesting. It's not one thing... These are broad, they cross societal and they're about regime change. And that's huge."
— Ben Rhodes (13:36)

4. Regime Survival, US Options, and International Complications

[16:40 – 18:46, 29:45, 30:11]

• The US has exhausted most nonmilitary levers: severe sanctions, new tariffs targeting China (Iran’s main oil buyer).
• Military options risk destabilizing the region and have minimal precedent of engineering positive change.
• Regime’s brutal crackdown could cause cracks in loyalty; however, a well-entrenched elite and history of weathering crises (e.g., Iran-Iraq War) make swift collapse unlikely.
• Allies like Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar urge restraint due to oil market instability and fears of contagion.
• Russian and Chinese reliability as allies for regimes like Iran and Venezuela is cast into question.

Notable Quote:
"Whenever the United States military is being used for the purpose of determining the politics inside of another country, I've never seen us be able to do that ever."
— Ben Rhodes (15:43)

5. Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: Real Alternative or Just Noise?

[24:26 – 27:23]

• Reza Pahlavi positions himself as a transitional leader in exile, courting US favor and claiming Iranian support.
• Mixed views: diaspora and Western media give him platform, but many Iranians remain skeptical; his connection to realities inside Iran is dubious.
• Caution from hosts: history of exiled leaders (Libya, Iraq) shows lack of ground support leads to destabilization, not smooth transition.

Notable Quote:
"I think a more optimistic take would be that, you know, there are thousands of Iranians who have not only put their life at great risk over, you know, many years to go out and protest, but others, you know, among them really thoughtful people who have committed themselves to democratic... ideals."
— Jason Rezaian (84:35)

6. Trump’s Geopolitical Gambits: Venezuela, Mexico, and Cuba

[35:51, 54:16, 57:25]

• Venezuela: Trump meets opposition leader Maria Machado, touts regime change, but leaves old regime structures partially in place.
• Oil industry challenges: Venezuela has reserves but requires $100 billion+ to restore capacity after years of neglect and sanctions—doubts about foreign oil firms investing under these conditions.
• Mexico: Trump renews threats to bomb drug cartels, alarming Mexican government, increasing risks of cross-border escalation.
• Cuba: Trump imposes further economic strangulation, threatening regime collapse but risking humanitarian catastrophe with no clear plan for aftermath.

Notable Quote:
"If you're running the government, you're eating fine... but the people that are punished by those sanctions are the very Cuban people that people like Marco Rubio constantly say that they're trying to help."
— Ben Rhodes (63:35)

7. Interview: Jason Rezaian on the Protest Movement and Looking Ahead

[72:33 – 88:15]

• Rezaian describes the cyclical nature of Iranian protests: repeated, regime fails to address core public demands, continued brutal suppression.
• Communication blackout in Iran is more severe than ever—landlines down, internet off; this cripples both activism and daily economic life.
• Rezaian is skeptical that exiled figures can lead regime change; leadership likely to emerge inside Iran, possibly among existing democratic-minded activists.
• He warns that the alternative to the current regime could be military rule—a “worst-case scenario”—due to IRGC's power.
• When asked about US/Israeli actions emboldening protesters, he doubts external factors triggered the movement but acknowledges military action exposed regime’s weakness.

Notable Quotes & Moments:
"I'm always jolted when protest starts, but, but I'm never surprised...They haven't done anything in 47 years to address the core demands of Iranian people for a freer and more open society"
— Jason Rezaian (73:14)

"To me, what do you get out of [military intervention]? If it doesn't upend the, the system, what you get is more repression, more brutality.”
— Jason Rezaian (79:15)

On US efforts to keep Iranians online despite regime blackout:
“If not now, then when? Right. You know, strike a deal with Starlink... Let's drop them by air... I don't think it's as complicated as we're making it.”
— Jason Rezaian (83:18)

8. Press Freedom & Hostage Diplomacy

[103:09 – 107:38]

• Rezaian reflects on the Trump and Biden administrations' policy on hostage returns: bipartisan political will, growing expertise, but the problem is worsening as adversaries see no high cost for detaining Americans.
• Press freedom is at a modern low: more journalists killed, less access, more government repression worldwide; absence of independent journalism makes understanding events (like Iran) more difficult.
• Social media fills gaps in info, but without on-the-ground verification by journalists, misinformation proliferates.

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Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• “What are you looking for and what do you think might be effective? ...how worried are you about Iran threatening to respond?”
  — Tommy Vietor (12:52)

• “I want to see if [Trump] really does [impose tariffs on China] because that's China in particular... The tariff threat, it's getting like less valuable.”
  — Ben Rhodes (17:53)

• “We don't have to get too deep in the discourse, but just be wary of the people online who don't find a word to say about protesters in any single country in the world except Iran, who are suddenly now like, fucking virtue signaling...”
  — Ben Rhodes (29:45)

• “This is something that [Trump] saw on paper because it validates his old critique that we invaded Iraq and didn't take the oil. So now he's going to take the oil, but it's not that simple.”
  — Ben Rhodes (48:36)

• “I think we are [at an all-time low in journalist safety and freedom]... I'm equally as worried about the protection of journalism as an institution as, as an idea.... The vast majority of the world now lives in a country that is inhospitable to journalism.”
  — Jason Rezaian (103:44)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Iran Protest & Crackdown: 09:52–13:12
• Trump's Response / Military Options: 10:36–13:12, then 19:35–22:22
• Reza Pahlavi & Exile Politics: 24:26–27:23
• Venezuela Regime Change/Oil: 35:51–50:05
• Mexico Bombing Threats: 53:45–55:27
• Cuba & Sanctions: 57:25–64:31
• G7 Summit/UFC Birthday: 65:17–68:41
• Rezaian Interview (Protests, Blackout): 72:33–88:15
• Press Freedom & Hostages: 103:09–107:38

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Conclusion

This episode provides a sobering and nuanced look at the wave of protests in Iran, the bloody response by the regime, and the global stakes involved. The hosts dissect US options, express skepticism over easy outside interventions, and discuss the pitfalls of exiled leadership figures and “regime change” optimism. The interview with Jason Rezaian personalizes the crisis, highlighting the limits of both US policy and media coverage under an information blackout. The tone is skeptical of quick fixes, alert to humanitarian suffering, and occasionally scathing about US political grandstanding and interference.

Transcript

[Tommy Vietor]

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Welcome back to POD Save the World.

I'm Tommy Vitor.

[Ben Rhodes]

I'm Ben Rhodes.

[Tommy Vietor]

I love the NFL playoffs so much. Ben. Well, did you watch that Bears game?

[Ben Rhodes]

I did, I did. I was gonna say you like it because your team won, but the Patriots game was trash.

[Tommy Vietor]

But we, but we did win. The Rams Panthers game was incredible. Also I noticed I was thinking about my buddy Roger Bennett on, on Saturday. Was it Sunday. There was the, the Classico was on. It was Real Madrid versus Barcelona over in, in Spain. There's just like a lot of good sports. Good sports weekend.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, it's that time of year too. You got the NBA going, you got football playoffs. I don't really care about college football anymore. Once they started making the west coast teams play in the ac, I don't like the conference realignment. It kind of.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it's where like the Big Ten is coast to coast. Big Ten to me should be like Midwest boring running football.

[Ben Rhodes]

But that's what football is about. Football is about like these different regions.

[Tommy Vietor]

But anyway, yeah, no, I agree with you in the rivalries and it makes the travel make no sense and it's all weird and I want players to get paid but the transfer portal is making it so people just leave after a year, which again, it's their right. But it doesn't seem like the best way to run a railroad.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, I feel like it's gonna not pan out over time.

[Tommy Vietor]

You want these guys to get a little more coached up. But look, we got a great show. We got a lot of major stories to cover today. We are gonna start with the latest on this now weeks long protest series of protests in Iran. There are reports this week of a massacre of protesters by security forces. And we'll also talk about what we know about Trump's deliberations about a possible U.S. military response. We're also going to talk about how the son of the former leader of Iran who was deposed in 1979 has reinserted himself into this conversation.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yes.

[Tommy Vietor]

And whether he is welcome or not.

[Ben Rhodes]

The Shah has entered the chat from.

[Tommy Vietor]

Where is he like Northern Virginia, suburbs of D.C. somewhere.

[Ben Rhodes]

I wonder who's been paying for him for.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, good question. Then we're going to update you on how regime change is going in Venezuela. Trump has an upcoming meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Machado. That could be awkward. We'll find out. I guess we'll talk about why ramping up Venezuela's oil industry might be a lot harder than Trump thinks. What the Russians might think about all of this. Then we're going to talk about Trump's threats to bomb Mexico, his efforts to topple the Cuban government with sanctions and economic pressure, and whether that's going to work. We never tried that one before. Right. And then how a birthday party and an octagon have upended plans for an international summit of world leaders. Stick around for that.

[Ben Rhodes]

I just want to point out that every single topic, with the possible exception of the octagon, involves the United States potentially being in a war.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yep.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, that's where we are.

[Tommy Vietor]

And there's a lot of violence in the octagon too. Yeah. You know, if we're being honest, that's true.

[Ben Rhodes]

If we're being honest, it's its own kind of war.

[Tommy Vietor]

Then you'll hear my interview with our friend Jason Rezaian. Jason was the Tehran bureau chief for the Washington Post Until July of 2014, when the Iranian regime, a bunch of goons, arrested him and ultimately held him hostage for 544 days. Jason and I talk about his view of the protests as someone who's lived in and reported on Iran. He's Iranian American, he's got lots of friends and family and contacts still in the country. And then we talk about his ordeal in Iranian detention and the incredible diplomacy that you were a part of, Ben, during the Obama days that got him out. The story is documented in Jason's truly excellent podcast, 544 days, which I just can't recommend enough because it's an amazing story and in its own right. And it's also like newly relevant in this moment as we're all looking at Iran and trying to kind of understand the machinations in the regime.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, Aven prison where he was imprisoned is the place where they tend to put the political prisoners. So that prison is certainly very relevant.

[Tommy Vietor]

Do you think?

[Ben Rhodes]

Although Israelis bombed it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, they bombed it.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Which killing a bunch of.

[Ben Rhodes]

Killing a bunch of political prisoners. So just footnote that, but yes, I'm curious. Yeah. Whether it's operational or not. I don't know.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, good question. I did want to say a quick thank you to all of our listeners and the viewers out there. We did this YouTube exclusive episode last week on Trump's rambling, bizarre two and a half hour New York Times interview where he said that only his own morality can constrain him on foreign policy. Check that out if you haven't. Not at all ominous there. That episode got us to 200,000 subscribers on YouTube for Pod Save the World. Not bad, Ben. Only 459 million more and we can get Mr. Beast tie that guy, tie his record. But basically we doubled our audience last year on YouTube and, uh, we're really grateful to everybody that listened and subscribed and who likes and shares the episodes because it helps us grow the show. It Helps us do more of it, which we love to do. And so if you're a casual listener, Pod Save the World on, you know, wherever you get your podcast, please subscribe, make it official. If you prefer watching on YouTube, subscribe there because it helps us grow, gets more people, good information in the YouTube algorithm. And it's also free. Both are free. And then again, if you're a super fan of Pod Save the World or Crooked media generally, or you just want to help out progressive independent media and help us reduce our dependence on tech platforms, consider going to krakow.com friends. Become a friend of the Pod Subscriber. You get ad free episodes, tons of great bonus content. Q&As. Ben and I are going to do a Q and A at the end of this show with our Discord community that you'll get to hear if you are a friend of the Pod subscriber. So again, crooked.com friends, but mostly, thank you for listening. And also, Michael wanted me to point out, Ben, that the Liz Truss show only has 16,000 subscribers.

[Ben Rhodes]

Oof. I mean, who are these people?

[Tommy Vietor]

So that means he's still watching. Are you still watching?

[Ben Rhodes]

Are you hating? Yeah. Are you one of the subs? Because who are these people that are subscribing to Liz Truss? I do want one because actually 16,000 feels high to me.

[Tommy Vietor]

Oh, so high.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. Like who that. That could feel almost an arena.

[Tommy Vietor]

Maybe just like comical, like hate watching.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. Well, Michael, you know, yeah, maybe our.

[Tommy Vietor]

Staff, maybe our staff has got like a bot farm in China. Like, keep this going, guys.

[Ben Rhodes]

Better keep it going.

[Tommy Vietor]

Okay, let's start with the biggest story in the world right now, Ben, which is Iran. So these protests, we've been covering this for a couple of weeks now, and the protests have only gotten bigger since we last recorded. Just quickly on the backstory, the protests started in late December when shopkeepers in Tehran, they took to the streets to express their anger after Iran's currency, the Real, plunged in value. So the real's lost half of its value since September. So it's been brutal for anyone, you know, any Iranian citizen. The protests, though, they quickly snowballed into these countrywide anti government protests in all of Iran's 31 provinces. And what makes these protests so powerful and such a threat to the regime is that they are broad based. It is not just women and people in cities like 2022. It is people in every part of the country, including, like working class, traditionally conservative Iranians. They are all just pissed off. They're pissed off about the economy now I do think we should note it's like, it's really hard to know what's actually going on inside of Iran right now. There has been an Internet blackout since last Thursday. Tons of people are pushing different narratives on social media. Like, there's definitely some bots out there moving stuff around, interested parties, you know, pushing a different narrative. So I kind of just think that, like, anyone outside the country doesn't have anything close to a complete picture, but. A number of human rights groups say there has been a massive crackdown by Iranian security forces in recent days and a massacre of protesters. On Tuesday, CBS News reported that one source told them that at least 12,000 people have been killed and possibly as many as 20,000 are dead. That number is way higher than other estimates. I've seen other groups put it between 500 and 6,000 sort of confirmed cases.

[Ben Rhodes]

But either way, I think the government itself said 2000.

[Tommy Vietor]

Jesus Christ. I mean, either way, it's horrible. Tens of thousands of people are being arrested. We'll never know that number. So also, you know, sources in Iran have told news outlets like the Times or the BBC that basically security forces are firing birdshot, like, pellet guns at protesters to blind them. And the ones that fight back, they're just gunning down with machine guns. And, like, to your point, Iranian state TV released video from a morgue in Tehran where you can see just dozens of bodies. I don't. Do you get why they would do that? Is that like a threat?

[Ben Rhodes]

I think a bit of it is a threat, yeah. It's to show that we're not backing down and, you know, we're encouraging you to not protest.

[Tommy Vietor]

I saw one person speculate that they were trying to suggest that, like, outside agitators.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, they'll say that no matter what, for sure. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Anyway, yeah, it's awful, but, you know, hospitals are overrun. They're running out of supplies. It's awful. So there's also, like, for what it's worth, I mean, the protesters are not peaceful. Like, they're getting very violent, too. I saw a clip. Do you see this? Of this group beating a cop to death, then they light the police officer on fire and burn them alive.

So.

President Trump has had previously assured protesters in IRAN that the U.S. would, quote, rescue them if there was a crackdown. He has yet to act. Trump has said he might meet with Iranians to negotiate. That seems to have delayed things. Axios reported that Trump's golf buddy turned envoy for everything, Steve Witkoff, has been in touch with Iran's foreign minister we'll see if that bears fruit. So Trump gave a big economic speech today, Ben. It's funny to think he's like trying.

[Ben Rhodes]

To give an affordability tour.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it's going great. He had this message for Iranians in that speech Tuesday. Let's listen.

[Donald Trump]

And by the way, to all Iranian patriots, keep protesting, take over your institutions if possible, and save the name of the killers and the abusers that are abusing you. You're being very badly abused. If the numbers are right now here, five different sets of numbers. I hear numbers, look, one death is too much. But I hear much lower numbers. And then I hear much higher numbers. But I say save their names because they'll pay a very big price. Then I've canceled all meetings with the Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. And all I say to them is help is on its way. You saw that. I put tariffs on anybody doing business with Iran. Just went into effect today. And I say make Iran great again.

[Tommy Vietor]

Ok, so sure that'll do it? Yeah. Not good. Okay, so Trump is going to meet with his team to review options today. Ben, let's try to figure out what those could be. A bunch of news outlets have tried to report out what the menu could look like. They suggest it could range from finding ways to boost anti government voices online, some sort of cyber attack on Iran's military and intelligence services, more sanctions, and then all the way to direct military strikes on the regime. The Wall Street Journal said Trump is leaning towards airstrikes, but his options may be more limited because he redeployed the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier from the Middle east to the Caribbean. Sucks when you're trying to do a regime change and you just can't find a aircraft carrier line around. But so we still, we could hit them with the US Long range bombers that can basically fly out of anywhere, as we saw last year, especially given that Israel took out their air defenses. So Ben, Trump is, he's painted himself into a corner here. He has to do something. The question is what the nuclear site bombs were like. That was a discrete target. There was a clear objective and not clear to me what airstrikes stop a government crackdown on protesters. But like, what are you looking for and what do you think might be effective? And then I guess, how worried are you about Iran threatening to respond?

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, we should just start by saying this is just a horrible situation for the Iranian people. And you know, what you're seeing is we've had different protests over the years. Right. So we had the Women Life freedom protest in 2022. We've had a variety of other protests every kind of two or three years, all the way back to 2009, when you had kind of systematic protests over an election that appeared to be stolen, I think was stolen. What's different about this is there's basically every reason for people to be protesting. It's not one thing. So at core it's that the economy is in the total shitter. The Iranian currency is worth like nothing. And there's a sense among people that that's because the incompetence of the regime, the lack of prioritization of the economy by the regime because they're so focused on foreign policy, the corruption of the regime, and they've just kind of been around too long. They have no answers for people. And so you're not just seeing, you know, sometimes in the past, these protest movements have been kind of younger, middle class, urban Iranians and Tehran. This is everywhere. This is like young people, old people, middle class people, working class people. And it's also very directly about changing the regime. Like past protests have often been about, or sometimes been about last time, get rid of the morality police, let women be uncovered. And yes, some of that was about getting rid of the regime, but some of that was about a more specific objective. These are broad, they cross societal and they're about regime change. And that's huge. And that shows how much this regime is on the back foot and how much Iranians are willing to risk. I mean, the fact that they're willing to go out there and risk their lives shows you the depth of frustration and anger that they feel about this kind of shitty regime that they've been living under for a long time now in terms of how the regime can kind of fight back. You know, the Iranian regime, you know, we've lived through some crackdowns when we're in government. Seen them since, you know, they have like a variety of different forces, right? There's like police, Then there are these, the Basij, who are kind of these like pro regime militia type guys who are usually not in uniform and go out rough people up or kill people even. Then you have the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that's kind of like the elite security force in Iran that kind of comes in as the backstop. Then there's the army. But in this kind of situation, the army is dangerous, right, because it's got people probably hate the regime in it, right?

[Tommy Vietor]

Those are average people. Will they pull the trigger? You never know.

[Ben Rhodes]

You never know. And so look, before we get into the U.S. the question is they're going to try to crack down. That's what they always do. And the question is, did they reach, is there some breaking point where, like we saw in Syria where it's just kind of falling apart and people start fleeing, regime elites start to leave the country and then there's a sense that all bets are off and people stop cracking down and suddenly they're like storming the fucking, you know, government buildings. I think that that could happen, but like, this regime is pretty deep, you know, like it's deeper than the Assad regime. Like there's just more characters invested in it with more power and they're spread out in different places. So that could happen. That can always happen. But this is a tough one to crack, you know, so we'll see. Now in terms of what the US can do. I'm just not a, like, I'm just informed by the history of the last 25 years. And whenever the United States military is being used for the purpose of determining the politics inside of another country, I've never seen us be able to do that ever. You know, now we could break the regime though. We could. I mean, I assume that the targets Trump is looking at are just a bunch of regime based targets, a bunch of military targets.

[Tommy Vietor]

Military sites.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, military sites, IRGC sites. With the idea being if you just bomb a lot of the regime assets, that that might bring about that crumbling. People get scared in the regime, they flee, and then people or protesters get emboldened. But that could happen. But then who on earth takes charge of Iran if that happens, you know, like, because it's not like there's some natural government in waiting and we can get to the shot if we. So Trump doesn't have a ton of options here. Like he put these tariffs on. We're already sanctioning them basically to the point of a total embargo.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, he said he's going to put a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran, which, you know, would really hammer the Chinese.

[Ben Rhodes]

Is he really going to do that? Like, I want to see if he really does, because that's China in particular. And, and by the way, we already have tariffs on China. Like the tariff threat, it's getting like less valuable.

[Tommy Vietor]

China buys 90% of Iran's oil, so I mean, that would be the most significant country you could tariff. But yeah, I don't believe he's going to do it because the economic impact would be massive.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. So I don't and by the way, part of the reason they're Iranians are pissed by the economy is we've already, like, emptied the barrel on sanctions. You could do, like, cyber attacks on the Iranians. That may be something they do. Like to just try to, like, you know, cripple the regime's communications or something like. That's an option. But I just don't see, like, I see a capacity to really fuck up the regime with airstrikes, but I don't see the capacity to engineer what comes next. One other thing, everybody always says, like, give them Internet access, especially Starlink. Which is true.

[Tommy Vietor]

Elon Musk.

[Ben Rhodes]

That's true. And it's important. I also think it's become, like, a big talking point.

[Tommy Vietor]

Catch all.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, we need to get them Internet, sure. You know, but that's not gonna. You know, that might keep them in communication with each other, but it's not. We should be honest. Like, I don't think that's gonna, like, be the game changer.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, it helps them get heard, especially outside of Iran. Doesn't necessarily help them topple the government. I was talking to one Iran expert and watcher today who said he was worried that the regime had managed to kind of crush this round of protests because they came out and they massacred everyone Thursday and Friday after Trump made this threat. And, like, basically the regime was able to crack down faster than Trump was able to move militarily. I guess we'll find out.

[Ben Rhodes]

Can I say one thing about that? Because Trump doesn't, like. Can you imagine the shit? I mean, I hate doing this, but, like, he called.

[Tommy Vietor]

You don't hate it that much.

[Ben Rhodes]

Well, but he called on everybody to get out.

[Tommy Vietor]

He drew a red line.

[Ben Rhodes]

He said, if I kill protesters, I'm going to bomb you.

[Tommy Vietor]

He said, I'm going to come to the rescue.

[Ben Rhodes]

And he told them to protest, and they did. And he didn't do anything. You know, and. And already potentially tens of thousands of people have died, and. And he just seems to get a pass on these things.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Ben Rhodes]

But anyway.

[Tommy Vietor]

No, I know. I mean, I guess, like, so the story's not over yet, but. Yes. I mean, clearly, I think make. Look, making that threat when you weren't ready to back it up, as we learned, you know.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yes.

[Tommy Vietor]

Can lead to bad consequences. One, One kind of clue. I thought, Ben, that I just wanted to run by you. I saw a tweet from Lindsey Graham.

[Ben Rhodes]

He's just been unhinged.

[Tommy Vietor]

He. So he refers to Trump as war boner on steroids. He refers to Trump as Reagan plus, which sounds like how you want your cook your steak prepared at an expensive place. Graham calls for a, quote, a massive wave of military, cyber and psychological attacks is the meat and bones of help is on the way, which is what Trump truthed.

[Jason Rezaian]

Then.

[Tommy Vietor]

He says, destroy the infrastructure that allows the massacre and slaughter of the Iranian people and take the leaders responsible for. Take down the leaders responsible for the killing. So, again, like, I have no idea how you translate that rhetoric into a strike package, but Trump has basically adopted the Lindsey Graham foreign policy. So you have to wonder if, you know, Graham is in his ear whispering like, we saw him last week on Air Force One.

[Ben Rhodes]

I will say, what have we learned about Trump? Right? He likes to bomb foreign countries. We bombed a bunch of them. He doesn't like it to last very long. Right. And he likes there to be some kind of symbolic act of destruction that might suggest that if he does bomb, to expect like a very intense but short bombing campaign. So for like a day or two, just try to decapitate the regime, maybe try to kill the supreme leader, try to kill the regime leadership.

[Tommy Vietor]

I talk about this with Jason. I mean, his house is in downtown Tehran, I think. So you'd be bombing up the biggest, you know, urban center of the country.

[Ben Rhodes]

Which he would have no problem with either. Right. And so you might see a decapitation type effort, which again, is just, this is a 90 million people, a lot of weapons, a lot of ideology, a lot of regime forces, terrain. A lot of terrain like this is not. I know he kind of keeps playing the tables and like, the worst stuff hasn't happened yet. Yet. Like in Venezuela, we did this and not everything fell apart. But this is a little different. Like, this is a place that these people, this regime lived through the Iran, Iraq war for a decade with, like hundreds of thousands of casualties. Sending, like kids in, like human waves at Iraqi, you know, chemical weapons like this is not easy.

[Tommy Vietor]

And if they lose power, they assume they're dead, too.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

I want to read you one quote, Ben. So Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana, you guys have probably seen him on TV. Sort of a goofball Southern guy, looks like Mrs. Doubtfire. He has a book out where he described Lindsey Graham the following way. If you want to stump Lindsey, just ask him to name a country he wouldn't bomb. Mr. Kennedy writes, adding later that the South Carolina senator is also unpredictable. Invite him to dinner and you don't know if he'll sit down for an intelligent conversation. I'll get drunk and vomit in the fish tank. But that's why I like him. It's like, okay, it's going on in.

[Ben Rhodes]

Like a lot of fun. Like, invite someone over to talk about war and vomiting your fish.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. What's going on in the Republican caucus? Two quick things. The Wall Street Journal says that Iran is now hunting down Starlink users. So they're trying to, you know, shut down these videos that are going out, but also their Internet. The Iranian regime, like, shutting down the Internet is just crippling their own economy. So it's destroying the country from within. The Journal also reported that Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar are lobbying Trump against strikes on Iran. They're worried about it disrupting tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz, where one fifth of the world's oil shipments go. And then obviously, like, what they're worried about what comes next, whether it's IRGC or chaos. And if you're mbs, Mohammed bin Salman or some other corrupt, you know, monarch in the Middle east, like, you really don't want people to start hitting the streets, protesting, calling for change, because that's going to hit you next.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. You don't like the idea of a corrupt regime that violates human rights just being broken, like, so they're probably counseling against it. That matters to Trump. He listens to those guys. The other two things I'd point out are part of the reason that they don't have options. And again, I don't think they should bomb Iran. And I don't think he should have encouraged people to protest by saying he would bomb in their defense. Because like I said, I don't think that that's gonna lead to good outcomes in the long run or even the medium run. But even if you were going to, part of the problem is that they moved all their shit to the Caribbean.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yep.

[Ben Rhodes]

So we, we, we bombed, you know, we did regime change in the Americas and we got to like move the.

[Tommy Vietor]

Armada over to man, I just parked over there.

[Ben Rhodes]

Change in Iran. So there's that. I do want to say on this shah thing, this is fucking nuts. Like the idea that we're going to reinstall the heir to the Shah, you know, look, I know he has some support, including in, you know, Los Angeles, where we're speaking.

[Tommy Vietor]

Can I play a clip? That's going to trigger you first. Yes, I just, I'm very excited to trigger you this. So just real quick for the people to know who we're talking. Reza Pahlavi is the 65 year old son of Iran's exiled Shah. He is from, you Know the safety of the D.C. suburbs, been calling for the U.S. to intervene militarily, then encouraging the protesters. This is him talking with CBS's Norah O' Donnell about the protests and what he wants to see happen.

[F]

I think President Trump is responding to the call that the Iranian people have. The Iranian people have heard his words. They are naming streets after him in Iran. There's a difference. They know he's not Barack Obama or Joe Biden, and that's why they do have a higher expectation. And we'll see what happens. The best way to ensure that there will be less people killed in Iran is to intervene sooner so this regime finally collapses. I've stepped in to lead this transition, and I have a plan for that. I have a whole host of people who are helping us, lawyers, jurists, economic experts. So we're not just talking about a regime that needs to go. We are also talking about what's the alternative. And in terms of the political alternative, it's a constitutional process. The interim government will be able to organize free elections so the people can send their representative in a constituent assembly to ultimately debate what ought to be in the final form that the future democratic secular system in Iran should take. I'm not here to advocate for a republic or a monarchy. I'm here to be the honest broker above the fray in complete neutrality.

[Tommy Vietor]

So, like, look, the ass kissing is annoying. The shot at Obama's annoying, but whatever. That's like, how do you talk to Trump? I don't care. But the thing interesting here, Ben, is, like, in the past, when I've talked to Iranians about Pahlavi, they say, this guy's a clown. Like, no one cares what he thinks in Iran.

[Ben Rhodes]

He's the rich guy in America.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like, no one wants him back leading Iran. But, you know, last week, Pahlavi called on protesters to demonstrate at specific times. And it seems like maybe hundreds of thousands of them listened, or at least he timed those calls well because he knew people were going to go out. I've also heard an analyst suggest that, you know, these were mostly young people who, like, don't know about the Shah, don't know the history, don't know the corruption or the human rights abuses. But Axios reported that Steve Witkoff secretly met with Pahlavi over the weekend. Later, in my conversation with Jason, you'll. You'll hear that Jason is skeptical that Pahlavi or anyone outside of Iran could, like, assume the mantle and take over. But, you know, 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini was in exile in France before he returned to Iran to lead the Iranian revolution. So I guess there's some precedent here, but I don't know what to think.

[Ben Rhodes]

I think that the couple things that bother me are, in like this time, I'll, you know, be self critical, right? When Muammar Gaddafi was ousted in Libya during the Obama administration, there was a actually very capable group of exiles who didn't have the baggage even of being the Shah, the Shah's son. And if people want to spend some time googling just how repressive the Shah was, you'll understand how you got an Islamic revolution in the first place. But these people were technocratic, they were wealthy, they were well connected, they said all the right things. They set up a transitional national council. You know, they didn't have any connection to the people on the ground. They got in the country. The people, if this regime collapses, they're gonna be militias, they're gonna. People who are armed, they're gonna. People with their agendas. And if you're not in the country and haven't been in the country for.

[Tommy Vietor]

A really long time, literally 50 years.

[Ben Rhodes]

In his case, the idea that you can come back in and just kind of run some orderly transition, if people say the best thing that could happen is, yeah, like, the regime breaks, Khamenei flews to Moscow and moves down the hall from Bashar Al Saad.

[Tommy Vietor]

There's a hilarious scene, Bashar Al Assad's.

[Ben Rhodes]

Checking his eyes, whatever. But then you would need some. You would need some kind of negotiation. There would have to be. And I don't like this regime. People say online that I fucking anybody who listens to podcasts, I've never said a nice thing about this regime, but you would need some figures who are like more the remnants of it and the opposition. Like, there'd need to be some ability to pull together enough factions to prevent the place from falling apart to negotiate that kind of transition. There would be a soft. It would have to be a soft landing. Not just like we're gonna like tear up every aspect of this government. Maybe. If you can do that, great, congratulations. But the softest landing is some negotiated transition. I would just caution people too. And I mentioned to you, Tommy, we don't have to get too deep in the discourse, but it gets to your point about like, there's a lot of information out there. I'd just be wary of the people online who don't find a word to say about protesters in any single country in the world, except Iran, who are suddenly now like, fucking virtue signaling. As if, like, all they care about is human. Where were they on, like, the Bangladesh protests? Or nevermind Gaza or Sudan or, like, a lot of.

[Tommy Vietor]

What about.

[Ben Rhodes]

There's a lot of whataboutism and a lot of, like, embracing protesters when you don't know anything about Iranians or. I don't want to see Iranians suffer under a regime, nor do I want to see them as just a permanent tool in some geopolitical game involving the United States and Israel. And the fucking Iranian people should be able to just like, the best case scenario is if they just deal with this themselves.

[Tommy Vietor]

I'm with you. Look.

[Ben Rhodes]

And have our support, but I don't trust Trump. So why would I trust Trump to do something as complicated as remove the Iranian regime and replace it if I don't fucking trust him to, like, govern Minnesota?

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah, look, I mean, Trump's terrible, obviously, but, like, on the Pahlavi question, it's like, again, the Shah was pushed out by, like, a massive coalition that wasn't just like, no, they're secular. It was like labor unions, like, secular left. Students, clergy. It was everybody. They just hated them. So the idea. They'd welcome them back. So I don't really believe Pahlavi when he suggests he's going to hold a referendum and a new constitution and doesn't want to bring back the monarchy. Like, I found that hard to believe. Now, there is. There's been some polling that suggests about a third of Iranians supported him, while another third strongly opposed him, according some Dutch pollster from 2025. Again, I don't know. I think mostly this is like, people in Western media.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Know who, they need someone to call, get him. They can book him.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, very bookable, it seems.

[Tommy Vietor]

But he also. He's like, kind of been at least clever in how he has framed this, because he's been trying to set up this system to offer amnesty to anyone in the regime who will, like, go on some online portal, he says, and register their name. He claims to have signed up 50,000 people who, you know, that's. He want to keep in place. Although. Yeah, it's smart. It's like, would you ever put your name down?

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like, yeah, I swear. Change. I know. We'll find out. Last thing. Ben Trump clearly, you know, keep saying he wants a deal. I'm not really sure what kind of deal would be welcomed right now. Right. Like, obviously, a deal that limits or ends Iran's, you know, nuclear ambitions, gets rid of its ballistic missile program. That would make the US happy and Israel happy. But protesters might view any deal in this moment as selling them out. Right, because they want regime. Right?

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

And then on Monday, Iran's foreign minister said, we are not looking for war, but we are prepared for war. Even more prepared than the previous war. We also ready for negotiations, but negotiations that are fair with equal rights and mutual respect. So, like, we'll find out. I mean, look, the last time the US bombed Iran, the response was for show. Like literally they called ahead and they said, hey, we're going to shoot missiles at you. Prepare yourself. They did hit some Israeli targets and did some significant damage and killed some people. Maybe if you know it's an existential threat, the response is stronger, we'll find out.

[Ben Rhodes]

That's right. I thought the last ones were messaging. Right. So the Qatar they called them, but I think the message was, if it's existential for us, we're just gonna start firing at US bases, even if they're engulfed countries. And similar with Israel, they came pretty close to overwhelming the missile defense and hitting much targets. But they wanted to preserve a bunch of ballistic missiles. If they just empty the kit, you know, they could do a lot of damage in Israel too. So a drowning man is, you know, dangerous. And if they are absolutely existentially threatened, they could, you know, the things that they were kind of measured about, they could kind of whether that's like attacking our embassy in Iraq, you know, bombing Israel with more ballistic missiles, bombing bases and, you know, terrorism. Like, we could see a lot of that.

[Jason Rezaian]

That.

[Tommy Vietor]

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Simplisafe. All right, let's do an update on last week's regime change gambit in in Venezuela. So on Thursday this week, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Machado is going to meet with President Trump in Washington. The big question in the US Media is whether she's going to give Trump her Nobel Peace Prize, despite the fact that the nice little Norwegians over at the institute say, you can't just do that. You can't just kind of like, hand the thing off. I'm glad we're focused on the.

[Ben Rhodes]

Importance. I was gonna say this is when the US Media just sends me into.

[Tommy Vietor]

Space. More consequentially, Machado is gonna have to figure out how to balance pushing Trump to listen to the will of the people of Venezuela, or at least to hold elections with his decision to install Nicolas Maduro's handpicked Vice President, Del C. Rodriguez as president and basically leave the entire Maduro regime in place. Over the last week, the Venezuelan government has slowly started to begin to release political prisoners. CNN reported that as of Tuesday afternoon, 56 prisoners out of the over 800 political prisoners in Venezuela have now been set free. That is obviously a good thing, but again, I asked the question, if Marco Rubio is the Viceroy of Venezuela, why aren't more out? Seems like you should be able to get this done quickly. The Post, the Washington Post notes that it could be a sign of a power struggle between Delsey Rodriguez and her brother and the powerful Interior minister who actually runs these prisons. Time will tell. There was also some great reporting, Ben, about the operation to get Maduro. One thing that really jumped out at me was the Times noted that the pilot, the Delta Force, like, pilot of the first helicopter of guys that approached Maduro's compound, got shot in the leg three times and had to, quote, struggle to stay aloft and deliver its troops to the target. The, the helicopter did, but this guy managed to drop off these Delta Force troops and then return to safety. Which is again, a reminder of how, like, unbelievable these dudes are who are, who are fighting, right? They're courageous and professional and can like gut out something that is unimaginably painful, but also how close this operation was to a complete disaster. You know, if that helicopter goes down and those guys all die, like, this is a very different conversation right now. The Times also reported that Venezuela's Russian made air defense systems ultimately didn't pose a threat to the US Troops because they weren't even hooked up to the radar that.

[Ben Rhodes]

Night. Yeah.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And then The Russian like S300 and book M2 systems that Venezuela bought in 2009 with all this fanfare just like, weren't maintained. Some of the parts were just sitting in storage still, even though they knew this was coming. So it does seem like an interesting example. Another example of Russia being a pretty unreliable ally. If they were supposed to be like the Venezuelan benefactor, they sold them all this kit and then they did nothing to help them set it up or maintain it. But Ben, I'm curious what you make of sort of like what we've read about the Russian role in all of this. And then Machado's goal for this meeting with Trump. And then we should talk about Trump's efforts to juice the oil sector down.

[Ben Rhodes]

There. It does feel like there was an inside piece to this operation. Somebody was making sure that the radars weren't turned on, pulling the plug. It feels like somebody pretty high up was probably okay with Maduro getting out of there because they may have calculated the best way to preserve the regime is to just sure like come get Maduro and you know, we'll run the.

[Tommy Vietor]

Show. Good.

[Ben Rhodes]

Calculation. The Russian piece is interesting because to connect these two conversations, the Iranians gave the Russians a lot of shit for Ukraine. Like all these drones, remember these kamikaze Iranian made drones. And it's not like the Russians are lifting much of a finger to help the Iranian regime right now. And the same thing. So if I'm a Russian ally right now, I'm probably not taken to the bank that this is like take North Korea, right? North Korea sent all these troops to Ukraine with Putin. It's gotta be a transaction. So I guess what the North Koreans are getting back. That's all they're gonna get back. But maybe they're getting a lot back because they're getting technology and stuff. But it does suggest that the Russian reliability here is not much. There's some other things about the operation that have come out. Or like there's this piece about the US using a civilian.

[Tommy Vietor]

Aircraft. Yeah, talk about.

[Ben Rhodes]

That. So it is against international law and sometimes these things are like hedged in the media. No, it is illegal to camouflage a bombing raid as a civilian aircraft. And we apparently did that in these boat strikes. There's also a report about. And again we have to verify this because was someone who claimed to be there the night of about the US using a sonic weapon that debilitated people there. It does just feel like they are not praying. Any regard to international law and the conduct of their operations, killing people in boats using potential civilian aircraft. If they did use some kind of sonic weapon, which is the kind of thing we used to allege that our adversaries did. So it also felt like there's just no constraints on what we're willing to do in a military operation and that don't think that the Russians and the Chinese won't like, take that on board in their future military.

[Tommy Vietor]

Operations. Yeah, the, the, the civilian plane issue was in that. I think it was in September. It was like the first strike on one of these, you know, alleged drug runner boats. It was not an identifiable military plane with military markings, and the munitions were not visible under the wings. It was painted to look like a civilian plane and the munitions were loaded out of sight. And some might say, like, well, whatever, it's a war, why would we care? Why can't we trick and fool them? Like, well, you know, you probably don't want some foreign military just shooting.

[Ben Rhodes]

At civilians, shooting down civilian. That's exactly why. Now, the one thing I'd say about Maria Machado to add to this is like her base of support, right. If there is such a thing as like, like a, like the absolute base of Maria Machado's support in the United States, it's neocons, right? So she's been around. This is one aspect we haven't talked about. We've talked about how she won a Nobel prize and Trump might not like that. We've talked about how she might not be able to get control of the military and Trump wants the military in place. But I actually think it is a strike against her that all these Republican neocon types like her, you know, and Trump always hates people like that. You know, like today you point out to me, like the John Bolton piece in the New York Times where he's like, what a mistake to not empower the Venezuela in opposition. And it's like, that's the worst thing you can do to help bring.

[Tommy Vietor]

Machado. You know, John Bolton getting prosecuted for having classified information in his house.

[Ben Rhodes]

Is still pounding, blistering, pounding out op eds demanding regime for more regime change. It wasn't, was an actual regime.

[Tommy Vietor]

Change. I went all the way more regime change. And he also wants to attack the dude who's like, got his fate in his.

[Ben Rhodes]

Hands. So I think her only ask, he's not going to put her in charge of Venezuela. I get her ask is going to have to be about, like having an election, I think, I think because that's her best bet is process. A process, act, ask an election on some timeline, release of political prisoners. But at the end of the day, and this sets up the old discussion, Trump doesn't give a fuck about any of that. He really doesn't. He couldn't give a shit. He cares about the perception that he knocked off this bad guy, Maduro, and he cares about the oil. And so I don't know what I mean. I guess he'll be, we'll see whether he gives her the Zelensky treatment or whether he's nice to her. But I think she's not really going to be a lead player in the near term. She might in the medium term if they can get to an election, but that's.

[Tommy Vietor]

Questionable.

Yeah. So Trump is moving forward on this plan to steal Venezuela's oil. On Friday, he met with about two dozen oil executives at the White House. So in this clip we play, you're going to hear a little bit from that meeting. First of all, Trump, then the CEO of Exxon, and then Trump's reaction to the CEO of Exxon on Air Force One on Sunday. Let's.

[Donald Trump]

Watch. We're going to help them out. We're going to make it real easy. They're going to be there for a long time. We're going to be there together for a long, long time. And they're going to be taking the oil and they're going to be bringing oil prices down. They're going to make a lot of money. They're going to get their money back. They're going to be.

[Ben Rhodes]

Safe. We have a very long history in Venezuela. In fact, we first got into Venezuela back in 19, 1940s. We've had our assets seized there twice. And so you can imagine to re enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here and what is currently the state. If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it's.

[Donald Trump]

Uninvestable. I didn't like Exxon's response. You know, we have so many that want and I'd probably be inclined to keep it. Exxon out. I didn't like their response. They're, they're playing too.

[Tommy Vietor]

Cute. So what's funny about the Exxon guy's comments is he's describing like, the political climate under Maduro, which Trump just said he toppled that government to change to make it easier for oil to get up. He was just like, mad at the guy's.

[Ben Rhodes]

Tone. Well, the funny thing is that guy's tone suggested he doesn't give a shit if he's kept out of Venezuela. So this guy's like, I don't think we can invest there right now. And Trump's like, we're not gonna let them invest there. And he's like, that's what they want. They don't wanna invest there because at the end of the day, I mean, this is the problem with Trump is he needs people to think he's somehow permanent. Right. If you're. I'm no fan of oil companies, but if you are an oil company and you're investing tens of billions of dollars, you're thinking about three years, five years, ten years from now. Trump's not gonna be.

[Tommy Vietor]

There.

[Ben Rhodes]

No. Already you still have the exact same government in place. You know, a bunch of communists running the fucking country. So why would you. And this is why the political prisoner thing is actually important. If Trump is running Venezuela, presumably all 800 political prisoners should be released already. Like, he's not running Venezuela. He likes to say it because it makes him feel tough. Like he posted that crazy thing online about acting president of Venezuela on his Wikipedia page or something. But he's not running it. And the oil companies actually have to deal in reality. Reality in shareholders. And that would suggest that this is not the safest bet. Unless you're like Chevron and you're already.

[Tommy Vietor]

There. Yeah. And just some more context about Venezuela's oil reserve. So again, the oft cited statistics that they have 17% of the world's oil reserves. I've seen some people question, like, where that stat came from or whether it's accurate. Regardless, they have a lot of oil. But Venezuela currently produces less than 1% of the supply. And the reason is partly because of US sanctions, but also because Venezuela's oil infrastructure has been left to just languish and rot for decades. So you got like, processing facilities. They're antiquated and don't work. The Atlantic had a long piece about this. They talked about there being miles of crumbling pipelines you'd have to rebuild. Bloomberg says it takes five days to load a tanker with oil versus one day seven years ago. The machinery there they describe as being ransacked and sold on the black market. One of the main refineries only operates intermittently. All the professional people were fired by Hugo Chavez back in the day. And like, you know, many of them never came back. And so they quoted an expert in the Bloomberg piece who said it will take 100 billion to get production back up to the 1970s peak, which is 3.5 million barrels a day. NPR cited an even higher figure, 183 billion, to get production back to the 90s level. Such about 3 million barrels a day. And like, like you said, Ben, I mean, Trump wants the money for those investments to come from the oil companies, but you know, as the Exxon guy said, like they're anxious about it and in some cases they are still angry about Chavez nationalizing the industry and taking their stuff back in the 2000s. And Exxon actually still wants to be reimbursed for billions from that time. And at the meeting last week, Trump dismissed the idea of like oil reparations for these companies, saying, we're not going to look at what people lost in the past because that was their fault, that was a different president. You're going to make a lot of money, but we're not going back, end quote. And then on top of that, like Venezuela's oil itself is kind of challenging. It's known as heavy sour crude, which is expensive to extract and refine and is very.

[Ben Rhodes]

Corrosive. Doesn't taste.

[Tommy Vietor]

Good. Does not taste good. And the Economist says that the break even price for the main Venezuelan project exceed $80 a barrel. But global prices now are around $60 a barrel and Trump wants them down to 50. But if we get down to $50 a barrel, that's going to destroy the US shale industry. It will no longer be able to be profitable and it will be a threat to opec, especially the Saudis, who have dug themselves a giant financial hole with stupid fucking investments like the Line Hotel. And they need, you know, high prices to. Yeah, sorry, the Line City. You know, they have a ski resort somewhere that NBS is still trying to finish. So we got to keep oil.

[Ben Rhodes]

A little hot there, a little.

[Tommy Vietor]

Warm. So just a little. That's just context about how complicated this project is as compared to Trump's rhetoric, Ben. And like, I don't know if you're the Russians, an existential threat to you might be $50, $40 a barrel oil, right? Imagine Venezuela gets up and running. Like they actually get this.

[Ben Rhodes]

Done. This is not going to.

[Tommy Vietor]

Happen. There's the Iranian regime is toppled, that oil starts to flow. Like Russia is cooked. Right? Like you can imagine some people might throw some sand in the.

[Ben Rhodes]

Gears. Yeah, this is not going to work. And look, none of the oil executives were like excited about this again. Chevron stayed in Venezuela. They're the only ones still there. So they're like, sure, like we'll take the oil, you know, but this is a pipe dream. This is something that he saw on paper because it validates his old critique that we invaded Iraq and didn't take the oil. So now he's going to take the oil, but it's not that simple. And the only other thing I'd say An interesting piece that somebody could do. Maybe I'll do this one day. But most of these countries that we end up changing the regime, we've sanctioned the shit out of for years, which then makes it impossible to rebuild those countries, right? So Iraq, absolutely decimated by US sanctions for over a decade. And that was a shit show when we went in there. You know, couldn't just flip a switch and have the economy and the oil industry back online. Libya, same thing, right? Venezuela now, same thing. Like we. So, I mean, look, I know Chavez mismanaged stuff and Maduro certainly mismanaged stuff, but I mean, we've sanctioned the shit out of them. And then we get in there like, well, nothing works. Like, it's literally illegal for them to like refurbish their oil, you know, facilities and sell the oil. So then we're surprised when we get in there and it's like, ah, this is gonna cost us $100.

[Tommy Vietor]

Billion.

[Ben Rhodes]

Yeah. Another argument maybe like our own sanctions have actually undercut, like every fucking military operation we've done for regime change in the 21st.

[Tommy Vietor]

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Crossword.

[Tommy Vietor]

That's. Yeah, on like a Sunday too. Isn't that the hard.

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[Donald Trump]

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[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. That's quite impressive what that kid.

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Adults. All right, so tracking all the places that the Trump administration has bombed or is threatening to bomb. It's getting very difficult. So my, my has bombed list includes Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, Yemen and Somalia. Let me know if I forgot any. And then the kind of like overtly or implicitly threatening to bomb, invade or topple the government list includes Greenland, Cuba, Panama, Colombia, Canada and.

[Ben Rhodes]

Mexico.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. So we're going to talk about Mexico for a minute, then we'll get to Cuba later. Here's Trump talking about Mexico last week on Sean Hannity show on.

[Donald Trump]

Fox. And we've knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water. And we are going to start now hitting land. With regard to the cartels, the cartels are running Mexico. It's very, very sad to watch and see what's happened to that country. But the cartels are running and they're killing 250, 300,000 people in our country every single year. The drugs, it's.

[Tommy Vietor]

Horrible. So it sure seems like he's talking about bombing Mexico there. It's not the first time, either. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum adamantly opposes any U.S. intervention in Mexico. On Monday, she said she reiterated that message during a recent phone call with Donald Trump and also told him that Mexico did not support the Maduro operation. The New York Times quoted a senior official in the Mexican government as saying the Maduro operation made them worry that, quote, we are on the list of who could be next. And worse, we have been warned. The administration's indictment of Maduro mentioned Mexico 25 times. And it claims that the former Venezuelan strongman partnered with drug traffickers, including the Sinaloa cartel, to transfer cocaine through Mexico to the US and then money back to Venezuela. So, again, but we're going to talk about Cuba in a minute. But Mexico has also been a big supplier of oil to Cuba since the Maduro operation. I think last week, a tanker carrying roughly 90,000 barrels of oil arrived in Havana from Mexico. Shane Bomb says those shipments are humanitarian aid. But, you know, Trump's not going to like that answer. So it's just interesting to see all the ways the Mexican government is pushing back on Trump and all the irritants here. And, and it just, it feels like the odds of a US Strike on Mexico just keep going up and up. But I'm wondering, like, how you're interpreting that.

[Ben Rhodes]

Now. It does feel that, like, the odds are going up and up. First of all, I do just want to sometimes feel the need to point like this. 97% of all drugs, like, he just throws these numbers out and it is like living in Putin's Russia. Like, I don't think 97% of drugs by water is been stopped because he bombed a few dozen boats. Put that aside. He's been talking about this. One of the guides to Trump, which is a lot of what we're doing, is trying to understand this guy. Is there are these things that he wanted to do in the first term that he was prevented from doing that he's in the fantasy camp of his dictatorship. He's just doing. And we know from firsthand accounts that he wanted to bomb Mexico in the first term. And the Pentagon was like, that's crazy, we're not going to give you the options. And he's been talking about it and he keeps talking about it and he keeps ratcheting it up. And so I think it's quite likely that he bombs Mexico, that he goes after these cartels. And look, that's not nearly as simple as he suggests either because these cartels are deeply embedded in Mexican society. They're complex organizations. It's not like you can take out the leader and it collapses. We've seen leaders get arrested and basically nothing changes. They're also very armed and violent and can cause problems in Mexico or in even other countries in Latin America. So I don't think it's as simple as there's a possibility that maybe he just bombs a couple cartels and goes on TV and says he stopped all drugs coming to the United States, cuz he's Trump and he might do that. But I worry about like a war on terror starting where you're bombing the cartels and nothing's changing. And so you just keep bombing and suddenly you look up and we've like, we're just bombing Mexico regularly and Mexico is starting to suffer the political instability that comes with that cartel reprisal violence because the cartels might lash out against the Mexican government instead of against the United States. And then you could get a really ugly.

[Tommy Vietor]

Situation.

Yeah. The other regime change we're trying right now is Trump's pushing really hard to take down the Cuban government. It's crazy that they're doing all these projects at the same time. Like, yeah, how can you possibly.

[Ben Rhodes]

Manage? And there's not that many of them. It's like, it's like, yeah, it's.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like six people making decisions. Marco Rubio is like, runs all this. So Trump has seemingly has ruled out military action in Cuba so far. Just he wants to do it through economic pressure. On Sunday, he posted the following message, quote, Cuba lived for many years on large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided security services for the last two Venezuelan dictators. But not anymore. Most of those Cubans are dead from last week's USA attack. And Venezuela doesn't need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the world by far, to protect them. And protect them we will. There will be no more oil or money going to.

Cuba.

Zero. I strongly suggest that they make a deal before it is too late. Thank you for your attention in this matter, President Trump. So an energy analyst quoted in the Miami Herald said that Venezuela exported an average of 30,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba in 2025. That was about half of what they needed. Cuba also gets oil from Mexico, as I just mentioned, and also Russia. But it seems unlikely that those countries are willing or able to fill the gap left by Venezuela going down to zero. So the reduction in oil, it's going to impact everything. It's going to impact Cuba's ability to generate electricity, distribute drinking water. Farmers won't be able to run tractors. They won't be able to grow food. The transportation sector could just cease to operate. And before those cuts, Cuba was experiencing rolling blackouts of up to 20 hours outside of Havana and up to 10 hours at a time per day inside Havana. And the tourism sector, which was a huge source of revenue, has been crushed for the last five years by Covid and then hurricanes. And now, you know, whatever's going on, the political risk and the Cuban economy could be even further decimated if Cuban doctors working in Venezuela are forced to leave. And I saw one economist say that the impact of Cuba losing its revenue from, like, the medical exchange of doctors with Venezuela could be worse than the fall of the Soviet Union when they lost those subsidies, which seems massive. So, Ben, you're seeing a lot of Republicans again, Lindsey Graham kind of licking his chops and predicting an imminent collapse of the Cuban government. Do you think they're right? What are you watching.

[Ben Rhodes]

For? Yeah, so, I mean, so I obviously worked on this, negotiated the normalization relations with Cuba, Cuba's shitty economy because of the US Embargo on Cuba for decades, as well as a relatively incompetent communist government. It was kind of hanging on by a thread and beginning to benefit a bit from the opening in the Obama years, particularly in the tourism sector. Our theory, again, was if you open things up, they'll change, because there should be this overwhelming, you know, it's 90 miles from Florida, like, this overwhelming influx of Americans and American investment that they could transform the country. Now, Trump undid, you know, put all the sanctions back in place. Joe Biden did nothing. He basically carried forward Donald Trump's policy. So even before this, I say that because even before this, the Cuban economy was Acutely fucked. Like the special period, quote, unquote. Special period was what Cubans refer to the 90s after the Soviets withdrew their subsidies, when they were on the nice edge of poverty and collapse and they made it through. Everybody I talked to who goes to Cuba and actually a lot of people who do say it's worse than it's ever been before the Venezuelan thing. And just so Americans know, because it's our policy that is most responsible is the embargo. And I believe that. I don't, you know, their.

[Tommy Vietor]

Mismanagement.

[Ben Rhodes]

Sure. But if you can't import anything or get any investment, it doesn't matter how well you manage the economy. People are malnourished. Like people like, you know, like they can't deal with the hurricanes. Like people are dying because of our sanctions already. This will make it much worse there. And I don't know, like on the one end, I'd say people have been predicting the imminent collapse of the Cuban government since the Cuban Revolution 60s. Yeah. You know, and they've figured out ways to survive with next to nothing. Maybe they'll get an extra plus up in the Mexican oil and some Brazilian oil and just kind of keep things band aided together. But again, it's like a mini Iran in the sense that like, what does it even mean for the regime to collapse? Like, if we don't invade militarily? I guess it means that like the protest movement starts and they kill the leaders. And then what? Well, then you're going to have to intervene because this is like a completely destitute island 90 miles from Florida with a lot of people that are not going to want to relinquish their power at all. Because if they do, they think they're going to get killed. You got a bunch of exiles in Miami who think they're going to go back there and run the place. How are they going to get in there and run the place if the army is like the core of the regime? Like this? None of this stuff is as simple as it looks. And the only thing I'd say about Cuba is that they don't even allege that there's a national security threat. No, like with Venezuela, they would at least say, like, you know, they're importing drugs, you.

[Tommy Vietor]

Know. Well, fentanyl is the WMD.

[Ben Rhodes]

Now. Yeah, fentanyl is the wmd. Like Cuba is not. Doesn't pose. Cuba does not pose any threat. Even if you hate the Cuban regime and it definitely treats and represses its people, there's no threat to the.

[Tommy Vietor]

United States this is the thing I did want to talk about. Like, I'm not a fan of the Cuban government. It is a one party rule. There's rampant, you know, systemic political repression and detentions and activists and journalists get thrown in prison and some people get tortured. And there's restrictions on speech and the media. It's a police state. There's evidence of, you know, political prisoners, maybe some coercive labor practices. You could say every one of those things about our closest allies in the.

[Ben Rhodes]

Gulf. You could say that Mohammed bin.

[Tommy Vietor]

Salman welcomed into the Oval Office, 50 countries fed with state dinners, and Cuba gets crippling sanctions that primarily punish the Cuban people most of all. It's just like the imbalance of policy to the problem is so crazy.

[Ben Rhodes]

Entirely. I mean, I used to go down there and look, if you're running the government, you're eating fine, you know, and yeah, maybe you're like, you're not living as lavishly as like a golf autocrat, obviously, but like, the people that are punished by those sanctions are the very Cuban people that people like Marco Rubio constantly say that they're trying to help. And all you've done is made those lives miserable and destitute. And we're punishing people for something that happened like 60 years ago or 70 years ago. I lost track. Right. And if you ask the American, when we did the Cube opening, it was like the highest polling thing in our foreign policy. Like 80% people are like, that's great. I want to go to Cuba. Like, the idea that we're going to just try to squeeze the Cuban Communist Party out of power and then what? And then, like, install some Marco Rubio approved exile regime that's gonna have to fight probably to like, restore order. Like, this is.

[Tommy Vietor]

Insane. Yeah, it just does not seem like a good use of time and.

[Ben Rhodes]

Resources. Listen, like, of all the things for humanity, we have an affordability crisis. AI is coming online, the Russians are in Ukraine, and we're focused on the Cuban.

[Tommy Vietor]

Government. It's real cold war shit here. Finally, Ben, we all know it can be tough to schedule, like a big group event. Doesn't matter if it's a family reunion or a bachelor party or just a dinner. People were busy. You got a wedding one weekend, your kids soccer game the next. And it turns out that leaders of the G7, they're just like us. Which is why France has decided to delay this year's G7 meeting by day to avoid stepping on President Trump's 80th birthday bash slash Ultimate Fighting Championship event at the White House. The summit is on. In Evian. Les Bains, which has a beautiful. Sounds great resort town. I'll go on Lake.

Geneva.

Yeah. It's going to take place now on June 15th and 16th instead of June 14th and 15th to avoid upsetting Mr. Trump and Mr. Dana White, the big boss over at the UFC. The Guardian had a report on this. They say that up to 5,000 people might attend the event on the South Lawn of the White House, and then somehow like 85,000 more are going to watch from the Ellipse across the street. What? I don't know. Maybe there's a stadium or a screen or something. I'm guessing, Ben, none of the G7 leaders are gonna make the cut of the. Of Trump's invite list because they didn't really like the.

[Ben Rhodes]

Cut. Maybe Maloney. Maloney might make the.

[Tommy Vietor]

Cut. Oh, Maloney might make.

It. That's a good call. Maybe.

[Ben Rhodes]

The. She was at the inauguration with Dana.

[Tommy Vietor]

White. The new Japanese prime minister might make it too. I think she's right wing enough. So, Ben, on one level, it's not the biggest deal, right? They moved to summit a day. But when you think about, like, kind of the cascading impact of shifting an international summit, like, for the organizers, the logistics for all the other leaders attending the G7, it really does say something about, like, the perceived balance of power within the organization at the.

[Ben Rhodes]

Moment. It does. And it just kind of reaffirms this point that the Europeans, like, their only play with Trump is to, at the end of the day, kiss his ass. They may put out, like, a strongly worded, written statement, like asking us not to invade Greenland, but then it's like, oh, Trump has his UFC fight. We better move the G7. You know, like, it just makes. It makes Europe look so small. It's sad. And also, but to those Americans who makes you feel big, we're gonna pay the cost for this. The bill is gonna come due for having a president who's so fucking narcissistic and dumb that he wants to have a UFC fight to celebrate his birthday. I do want to ask you this, Tommy, as, like, a sports fan as you are, like, I guess with the ufc, it's not dangerous because their fan base probably skews pretty maga. But, like, going this all in with Trump, I don't know, like, NFL's like, which is generally skews, probably right of center, has been a little more careful. You know, bad bunnies playing the halftime show. Like, what do you think of this UFC merger with.

[Tommy Vietor]

Maga? You know, it's a really good question. I thought it was really smart of Trump to go to all those events early on and.

[Ben Rhodes]

Just. I see what Trump.

[Tommy Vietor]

Gets.

[Ben Rhodes]

Words.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. I mean, I think, like, from this one single event, you probably get global exposure like nothing you've ever done before, you know, just because it's at the White House and so unique and interesting. I. There is some risk. There is some risk. I think I'd be willing to take it. Also, Dana White's a billionaire, so he doesn't care. I mean, I think there's some risk politically for Trump.

Too.

Right? I mean, if we're still kind of like inflation so high, affordability is tough. And like this, throwing him a giant birthday party and a boxing match on his lawn, like, that's not great. I mean, so it sounds like they're just doing, you know, a huge series of events around the 250th anniversary of the country, which, on one level, is what you'd expect, but if it looks overly expensive and gaudy and absurd, I think people are going to be like, do your.

[Ben Rhodes]

Job. Which it will. I mean, this is a very good point. I mean, in the summer of a midterm election year that is going to be dominated by concerns about affordability, economy, the way Trump's going to do up this UFC fight on the South Lawn is probably not the message you want, but maybe it's good because maybe it ultimately helps Democrats make that case. Not that hard to make a case that Trump doesn't care about.

[Tommy Vietor]

Affordability. Have fun, sir. Step into the octagon yourself. Finally, we just want to say a big thank you to Andrew Chadwick, our editor on Pod Save the World, who's been doing this for the last five years. Many weeks, one might say. Most weeks, Ben. Andrew is the only reason we sound coherent. He has endured an infinite number of coughs, burps, cleared throats, garbled words, and then cut them so that you do not have.

[Ben Rhodes]

To. Or Ben Rhodes misplaced audio files.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah.

[Ben Rhodes]

Travel.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. And then he turns the show around fast and flawlessly every time. So we just want to say a huge thank you to Andrew for everything he's done for us and for the show, and hopefully I didn't stumble on this section for once so that he does not have to clean up his own thank.

[Ben Rhodes]

You. I mean, I owe him a bigger debt of gratitude than you, I think, given my various habits and eccentricities and travel schedules. So thank you.

[Tommy Vietor]

Andrew. Amen. All right, we're going to take a quick break but we've got some news for Friends of the Pod and anyone else who wants even more Pod Save America. We just launched a new weekly newsletter, Pod Save America Open Tabs. It's released every Thursday morning. What it offers is a behind the scenes look at how we put together Pod Save America, what's coming in the next episode, and the stories rattling around in our brains before we get into the studio, including the ones that didn't make the cut. Check out the first issue of open [e-mail] substack Sign up for Friends of the Pod to get access to this [e-mail] friends if you're already a subscriber to our Substack or our Discord, you'll start getting open tabs every.

Week. Ponte of the World is brought to you by Rocket Money. I think we've all had that moment where we realized that our finances are a little bit out of.

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World Shipping, billing admin Payroll Marketing. You're managing all the things, so why waste time sending important, important documents the old fashioned way? Mail and ship when you want, how you want with stamps.com print postage on demand 247 and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping that's why over 1 million small businesses trust stamps.com go to stamps.com and use code podcast to try stamps.com risk free for 60 days. My guest today is Jason Rezaian. He is currently the director of press Freedom Initiatives at the Washington Post and the host of the podcast 544 Days, which documented his time being held hostage in Iranian prison and all the machinations that it took to get him released. Jason for those who don't know his story, we'll get into it in more detail in a second. But he was falsely accused of espionage in 2014 while serving as the Post's Tehran bureau chief. He also wrote an amazing book about his experience called Prisoner. Jason, welcome back to the.

[Jason Rezaian]

Show. Thanks for having me.

[Tommy Vietor]

Tommy. Great to see you, buddy. So, you know, we scheduled this interview a while back because this week marks the 10th anniversary of your release from an Iranian prison, even prison. We want to get to that in a minute. And your reflections on that, that period in your life and everything since. But first, I just have to ask you about these massive protests that we're seeing across Iran. So we're recording this Monday night, January 12, at about 4:30pm Pacific Time. God knows what will happen between now and when this is released Wednesday morning, especially if Trump decides to take a military action. But just first of all, like, what is your reaction to, to what you have seen so far out of.

[Jason Rezaian]

Iran? Look, I'm always jolted when protest starts, but, but I'm never surprised, Right, because the Islamic Republic has an incredibly strong and brutal security apparatus that has shown an ability, a strong ability to, to shut down dissent, but not to stamp it out. Right. They haven't done anything in 47 years to address the core demands of Iranian people for a freer and more open society, a country that's connected to the, to the rest of the world and, you know, a better economic lot than the one that they inherited. Right. There have been moments of, you know, seeming openness or a desire for openness, and moments where the economy's done better than at other times. Obviously, you know, not only is it 10 years since my release, but it's also 10 years since the JCPOA was implemented. And, you know, there was a minute there that things looked set to improve. But overall, the, the public sentiment has been, we're not happy with this system. We don't like this system. We don't want this system. We also don't have the wherewithal to topplate because they're armed and we're not. So I think Every time I see a new round of protests kick, of course, there's a slightly different spark each time around, but the core sentiment is the same. We don't like you, leave us alone. And it's not a system that I think is impenetrable or invincible. And it's certainly starting to show signs of a lot of cracks and wear and tear. And I've been a firm believer for a long time that the expiration date is coming. I couldn't tell you what day.

[Tommy Vietor]

Though. Yeah. As long as I've known you, you've been like a, it's a, it's not an if, but when guy in terms of this regime getting sent packing. But I mean, how would you compare the kind of scale and the tenor of these protests to say, the Women Life freedom protests in 2022 or the green movement protests in 2009? And also, are you able to be in touch with people on the ground in Iran? I mean, it might be impossible since the Internet's been cut.

[Jason Rezaian]

Out. But before that, maybe at this moment right now, it's been five days since we've been able to talk to any friends or relatives directly in Iran. A couple of people who we know here in the US have been able to communicate with folks inside Iran who have access to Starlink connections and have been able to give us a couple of updates from close family members that, you know, they're safe so far. But that's the extent of it. I mean, you know, when we talk about the blackout in communication in 2009 following the contested reelection of Ahmadinejad and the Green Movement, there was a period of time when the Internet was shut down, when SMS service was shut down. And I remember how jarring and disorienting that was because it was almost impossible to communicate with your friends across town or anybody else around the country, except by landline. Right now, landlines are.

[Tommy Vietor]

Cut.

[Jason Rezaian]

Wow. You know, we have a whole variety of, you know, international phone cards that we use. Our, you know, our U.S. carrier services, our cellular services. We, you know, we have opt ins for Iran. We're not able to even get a dial tone or a ring or a busy single. Right. So, you know, I think that this is pretty extreme. And you know, I, I wanted to mention that because in 2009 and then again in 2022, when these communication shutdowns happened, there's a massive economic loss to.

[Donald Trump]

That.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. And it's more and more all the time because just like any other economy in the world, you know, it's driven by Online businesses. Right. You know, Iran has its own version of Uber, you know, a ride share system, delivery systems, you know, something akin to Amazon. There's all sorts of trade offs that the regime has to make to clamp down and make this kind of decision. And so I think it's just an indication of how seriously they take the threat to their, their existence and longevity. The other thing I would say is the difference between this round of protests and 2009. 2009 was very much an urban set of protests. You know, by and large, Tehran and other large cities. This is, you know, cities and villages all across the country. And it's not, you know, defined by, by region or ethnic group or size of town. This is broad swaths of all segments of the society saying, you know, we're mad as hell, we don't want to take it.

[Tommy Vietor]

Anymore. Yeah. And so President Trump has threatened to respond or retaliate militarily if there's a major crackdown on protesters. It seems pretty clear from reports over the weekend that at a minimum, hundreds of people have been killed by security forces. I mean, there are these horrifying victims, videos of, you know, the morgue stacked with bodies. I mean, it's just awful stuff. I'm kind of struggling to understand what an intervention to stop a crackdown on protesters might look like. I'm wondering if you have a better idea. And, and do you think that, I mean, it's hard to answer, but the, the average protester would welcome a US Intervention. Is it a distraction? Like, how are you thinking about.

[Jason Rezaian]

It? So I think that if we go back to June and the 12 day war between Iran and Israel and the United States, Trump made similar comments. And he also made comments like the ones he did yesterday, that he was open to negotiation. He said that the night before the US Bombed Iran's nuclear sites. I think that there's certainly people in the country that would cheer that on. But I also think that, to me, what do you get out of that? If it doesn't upend the, the system, what you get is more repression, more brutality. And then you think about it in another way. If it's, if strikes were not going to target military or nuclear facilities and they were going to target, you know, the homes of, of officials. Right. You know, in, in June, there were a series of pretty outlandish and incredibly well implemented assassinations of top regime officials. If they were going to go after, say, the Supreme Leader's compound that's in the heart of Tehran, like right in the middle of the city. You couldn't do that without killing lots and lots and lots of innocent people. So, you know, I don't think that that's the answer here. I also don't think, and you know very well from my positions for many years that I'm a pro engagement guy when it comes to Iran, and really when it comes to all countries in the world. Friend and foe. Right. I don't think of diplomacy as a weakness. I think of it as a tool, especially when wielded smartly. But this time around, I think any sort of deal that would provide concessions or cover to the Revolutionary Guard is not in the interest of the Iranian people. And I don't think it's in US Interests either. Right. What scares the hell out of me, Tommy, is that as much as I do think that the regime will collapse at some point, I don't think that there's any sense of a reliable, feasible, or realistic replacement at this point. One of the things that they've been incredibly good at for 47 years is snuffing out dissent. Right. And imprisoning, executing, and exiling anybody who takes hold in the population in the popular mindset. So, you know, there are not a lot of great options here. The one thing that I think that. That the US could do, and you know, that. That the US has been promising to do this since before 2009 is figure out how to keep these people online. Right. And every single time, exactly what we're seeing right now becomes the issue. And people like me come out and say, hey, you know, let's do more to keep these people online. It's. It's not only their best shot at telling us what's happening inside the country. It's also their best opportunity to. To know that the outside of the world understands what's happening and supports what they're doing.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right?

[Jason Rezaian]

Yeah. And I don't fucking know why we can't figure that out. I mean, well, see, it seems.

[Tommy Vietor]

Like people are doing with Starlink, right? I mean, seems like, you know, sprinkling a bunch of Starlink.

[Jason Rezaian]

Yeah. And, you know, I've, you know, read a couple analyses over the last few days saying, you know, the US doesn't necessarily want to, you know, truck in a bunch of Starlink terminals because, you know, that could undermine our existing, you know, intelligence routes, you know, our smuggling routes and whatnot. But if not now, then when?

[Tommy Vietor]

Right.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. You know, strike a deal with. With. With Starlink, with. With Elon Musk to produce, you know, a couple of million of these, and let's drop them by air. I mean, Israel controls Iran's airspace at this point and has since last.

[Tommy Vietor]

Summer.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. Like, I, I, I don't think it's as complicated as we're making.

[Tommy Vietor]

It. Yeah, well, so you alluded to my next question, which is, you know, everyone's trying to figure out what, like, who might lead the next Iranian government. Obviously it is, it is unknowable. But just to keep, like float some names I keep hearing about, I mean, it seems like the current president, President Possesskian, is kind of trying to position himself somewhere between the Supreme Leader and the protesters and sort of a middle ground. I don't know if that'll work. Then you have, you know, Reza Pahlavi, the former Crown Prince of Iran, you know, the, I think the, the son of the Shah who has inserted himself into these conversations from overseas. He's called on people to take to the streets. Now Iranian friends of mine have been very cynical about him in the past, but it does seem like he was able to, you know, have some influence maybe in the country. So I don't know, obviously the military, the irgc, they're going to have a lot of sway, like the guys with the guns tend to do well after a regime is toppled. So I know what are you watching and what are you watching for, like which individuals and.

[Jason Rezaian]

Entities? So I, I think that the, the, the last option that you just mentioned is the unfortunately most realistic one and the worst one. Right. Clerical regime is toppled, supreme leader dies, you know, there's chaos and the military steps in and you know, brutally cracks down and is able to maintain order and somebody from within, you know, that part of the apparatus emerges. I think a more optimistic take would be that, you know, there are thousands of Iranians who have not only put their life at great risk over, you know, many years to go out and protest, but others, you know, among them really thoughtful people who have committed themselves to democratic, I don't wanna say reform because the system's not reforming, but democratic ideals. The idea of a rule of law and accountability and organizing to try and change policies. Like very famously the Nobel Prize winner Nargis Mohammadi, who's in prison right now, she led a years long campaign against the death penalty in Iran. Right. It's what ultimately landed her in prison and she's stuck with it. So I think it's disrespectful to the many people vying for change within Iran and putting their life at risk to think that anybody that's sitting in, you know, the suburbs of Washington D.C. or London or Dubai or, you know, anywhere else outside of Iran's borders for us to think that that would be a viable candidate to help lead a future free Iran. And yet there isn't a single person that I or you or anybody else can credibly point to right now. I think that that person will emerge over time, but I think we'll have a better time figuring out who it is if instead of listening to people like me and other analysts, journalists and folks in the diaspora and try and cultivate relationships with change makers inside Iran, they're there and they're knowable and they're out there on social media. They aren't on social media today because they can't access it, but they have.

[Ben Rhodes]

Been.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right? And you know, we're the United States of America. We still have more resources than anybody else. It's always been shocking to me how under resourced we were in government on Iran. Right. You know, I knew the, the guy who did strategic comms, you know, for the Iran office at, at the State Department. You know, there's only one of them. Right. China, Russia, Brazil, India, probably Belgium. They all have many multiple people working on these. We've stuck a flag in the ground to say that Iran is kind of top three adversary and has been for the last half century. And yet we pour almost no resources into cultivating really good, solid intelligence and relations with dissidents inside that country. That's kind of.

[Tommy Vietor]

Shocking. Yeah, no, I agree with that. And like, point taken on the diaspora is probably, that's not where the leadership's going to.

[Jason Rezaian]

Come. And certainly how has that worked out for us and the folks that we've helped topple.

[Tommy Vietor]

Regimes? Yeah, no, not well. But it's also, you know, it does seem like there's some big debates within the diaspora and sort of infighting that sometimes springs up in moments like this. I mean, are there, can you help us understand those debates? Like what are, what are.

[Jason Rezaian]

The. Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, I think that there are, you know, it would be not true to say that there isn't a strong contingent within the diaspora and probably within Iran that is nostalgic for the previous monarchy. Does that mean that it's a realistic option? I don't think so. Right. You know, they rejected monarchy 50 years ago. I don't really think that it's what most people want. Then there is this kind of Marxist cult group, the mek, the Mujahideen Khalq, which was on the State Department's terror list for many years until they were taken off in 2011. You probably heard about someone who is suspected to be a member of that group driving a U haul truck into a bunch of protesters in Los Angeles just yesterday. So, you know, that's not the kind of person or group that I think is able to lead. And, you know, the one piece of this that I think people don't fully understand or appreciate as much as the United States and Iran have been estranged from each other, hundreds of thousands of people in the Iranian diaspora in the United States, in Europe, Australia, Asia, the uk, Canada, travel back and forth every single year. There are lines of communication, there are touch points, right? And I think a big part of this for most folks in the diaspora is a desire to be able to have a normal relationship with their homeland the way that somebody from, you know, any, except a handful of countries is able to have, right? I mean, at this point in time, if a friend of mine, right, a non US Citizen, non Iranian friend, had attended Yegi and my wedding in Tehran 12 years ago, and they want to visit me in Washington D.C. today, they have to go get a visa. Whether they're from the uk, France, Canada. It's like a black mark on your record if you've even stepped foot in this country. I don't think that helps anything. I don't think that it. I don't think it opens doors, you know, it closes.

[Tommy Vietor]

Them. That's ridiculous. Last question on the protest. So, I mean, obviously if the regime falls, the protesters, the people on the streets, deserve all the credit. But as you know, there will be others, outsiders rushing to take credit, especially Donald Trump, especially Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. What role, if any, do you think the Israeli strikes on Iran and Hezbollah and then the US Military strikes on Iran played in kind of maybe emboldening or leading to these.

[Jason Rezaian]

Protests? I don't think that they led to these protests. And I think people are always waiting for a reason to go out. But I do think that it exposed a lot of weakness. There was this false narrative for many years that the Revolutionary Guard and the security apparatus of the Islamic Republic have been protecting Iran from external invasion. If you look at the history of the last 15 years or.

[Ben Rhodes]

So.

[Jason Rezaian]

There have been many instances of Mossad taking out Iranian nuclear scientists, Right? And you know, that was multiplied many fold during the short war last summer. So I think it really showed people that this system is not impenetrable, it's not invincible. But, you know, I would really ask people to kind of slow their roll when it comes to giving too Much credit to any external force or action. It can be true that you want the Islamic Republic to cease to exist and also true that Israel and the United States and Saudi Arabia and everybody else, you know, looking for Iran to be destabilized is not your.

[Tommy Vietor]

Friend. Yeah, right. All right, let's get to your story that you memorialized both in prisoner in 544 days. Can you just remind people of why you were detained all those years ago and kind of like remind us what.

[Jason Rezaian]

Happened? Yeah, so, you know, I'd been living and working in Iran for about five years, first as a freelance journalist and for a long time the only American raised and born US citizen working as an accredited journalist in Iran was hired by the Washington Post in 2012. My wife and I were working as a large percentage of the English language media in Tehran. And in the midst of the nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers, we were arrested at gunpoint from our home and taken to even prison. It was not clear to me for some time that I was being held hostage. There were a lot of COVID stories and accusations leveled at me and many months of pretty brutal interrogations, deprivation, solitary confinement. But at the end of the day in my reading of it was that I was taken by a faction within the Iranian state that didn't want to see those nuclear negotiations come to a deal. And so I tell people and you know, I would urge listeners to, to give 544 days a listen. I think it's the best podcast that they probably haven't heard yet, but agree, you know, for me the nuclear negotiations were the thing that got me arrested and they were also the thing that got me released. So you know, as far as the resilience are concerned, it's kind of a wash, right? But there's a year and a half in the middle. That's a pretty fucking. Exactly. At the time it really sucked. And I'm glad that I can laugh about it now. But yeah, it was an incredibly trying and unjust thing that my family and I were put through. But I also think, you know, it showed a lot of what works in the US government when people get behind something, you know, you know, the efforts that went into that, the, the hours of time and energy and negotiations and intelligence gathering that went into to that effort to, to get me and others out of Iran. And I think, I think it's a, it's a pretty good, pretty great example of when America gets something right, how they can take care of their.

[Tommy Vietor]

Own. I gotta say, it's a great, it's a great podcast. It's an amazing story. It's. It's a story of your, your time in prison, but it's also a love story. It's a story about, you know, America, kind of all the things that were happening behind the scenes, but also very newly relevant because it surely provides an incredible window into kind of what we're seeing now on the streets and what we're talking about now. But since then, Jason, you've been very involved with these issues of wrongful detention for, like, the last 10 years. How are you seeing kind of the number of these cases trending, how they're being handled diplomatically? For a while, it definitely seemed like Trump really liked kind of like Hostage Return. It's sort of, I think, scratched his itch for a headline, a discreet thing, a victory lap, a sense of success, even if it was kind of a piece of a puzzle, and the rest of the puzzle is unsolved. But what are you.

[Jason Rezaian]

Seeing? I think he's still very committed to bringing people home. And we've seen that he's helped get a number of Russian and Belarusian prisoners freed through negotiations. It's gotten dozens of Americans out. You know, I do a lot of work in this space and have been trying to inform the policy conversations on a long time, for a long time. And I think both Trump won Biden and now Trump 2 are all, we're all very committed to this issue, but the issue has only gotten worse. And a lot of people would say, will say that the reason that it's gotten worse is because we're negotiating releases. And I think that's wrong. I think that the reality is the reason that countries like Iran, Russia, China, Venezuela have done this and continue to do it is because they get away with it. And there's really nothing credible standing in the way. Right. We have lots of laws in place around this, but because folks are arrested and detained through kind of opaque judicial rubrics, the US Approach has been we don't want to step on another country's sovereignty. We can't undermine the idea of independent judiciary. And you know what? That's being weaponized against American citizens. We have dozens, if not a couple hundred cases of this in the last decade to point to. And I think that there's been incredible change on it. And I've led several initiatives around it. And this is not a partisan.

[F]

Issue.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. Senators, Senator Shaheen, Senator Coons, but also Republicans like Mike Rounds, Secretary of State Blinken, Trump's national security advisor, Robert o', Brien, Roger Carson, who was the hostage envoy for Trump until Biden was elected, who Biden kept on for his entire term. This is not a partisan issue. This is an American problem and one that I think is one that we can attack in a, in a nonpartisan way. And there's very few issues like that left. And if you look at the reporting on these cases today, compared to when I was released, if you remember, there was a lot of talk about, you know, the, the elements of the deal that got me out, pallets of cash and all of these. We're appeasing terrorists, we're paying ransom. Those conversations don't happen anymore. I think people have gotten the message that when an American who has been taken and held because they're American is able to come home because the US Government sprang into action and got them released, that's something to rejoice over. Right. And I think that that's something that we can build.

[Tommy Vietor]

On. I hope that is true. I was talking to a friend today, actually, that one of the things that I will like tip my hat to Donald Trump on and say, you know, hope those changes stick, is he does not care about this sort of like old stupid, we don't talk with our enemies, we don't talk to our terrorist bullshit. Like Adam Bowler, his special envoy for hostage affairs, talk directly with Hamas. I think that's good. I also think, you know, we, I do think he approaches hostage negotiations, like you just said, like it's a good thing to get these Americans home, period, paragraph. I will never forget kind of the feeling of when Bow Bergdahl, a US Service member who had been held for five years by the Taliban, came home. And it's evolved in such an ugly partisan fight that in a way that, that shocked me. Now, some of it was, you know, service members who served with him expressing their anger about the situation, his walking off their base, put them in. So they mean, think that's totally justified. But I, I also fear that, you know, the next time a Democrats in charge, that we might see some of the same sort of partisan your week attacks from Republicans. But I'm trying to be hopeful that that won't.

[Jason Rezaian]

Happen. I Look, I think you saw it in the Brittney Griner case, you know, in particular. Right. But when Evan Gershkovich and several other Americans were released, you know, that was on Biden's watch as well, and it was hailed as a kind of a incredible feat of international diplomacy because so many countries were involved. Right. And, you know, there was a lot of feeling that that would all fall apart because it was so centered on the premise that, you know, Navalny had to be, you know, released and then he was murdered and folks thought, okay, none of these people are ever going to get out again. And then they did. Right. And you know, I share your concern, but I think that we have turned the page on this a little bit and there is more and more coverage on these issues that's smarter and more nuanced and there's a whole crop of people who are kind of experts in it now. Right. And you know, I'm not going to take credit for, you know, leading that stampede, but it's certainly something that, you know, I've tried to stay the course with since the day I got out of.

[Tommy Vietor]

Prison. Yeah, well, it's a welcome and needed change, that's for sure. I just want to close with your talk about your work on press freedom. It's very difficult out there for journalists. I mean, the International Federation of journalists says that 128 journalists and media workers were killed in 2025 alone. On this show, we've highlighted the Jimmy Lai conviction in Hong Kong. We've talked about all the journalists who were killed covering the war in Gaza. Gazan journalists. That is among many other stories. There's the gutting of the Pentagon press corps here at home. Are we at an all time low in your opinion, in terms of like, journalist safety and.

[Jason Rezaian]

Freedom? Yeah, I think we are. And I think we're also strangely at an all time low in terms of trust and credibility. Although we're able to tell more accurate stories, more verifiable stories, more nuanced and data driven stories than ever before. There's less and less confidence in what we do because there's so many attacks against us by, you know, governments around the world. I, I think, you know, we talk a lot about journalist protection right now. I'm, I'm equally as worried about the protection of journalism as an institution as, as an idea. And I, I think there's always going to be a place for storytelling around what current events and what's happening in the world and holding power to account. So I think our, our, our place is solid. But you know, the, the tools of repression, we're watching it in Iran right now. There's nobody, there's no, there's no independent journalists on the, on the ground reporting from.

[Ben Rhodes]

Iran.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. And you know, our understanding of that situation is suffering because of it. So a big part of my work right now on the press freedom front is developing tools and ideas about how do we reopen our windows into societies like Iran, like China, like Russia. I think of them as the big three. But, you know, if you look at the assessments of, you know, groups like Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, the vast majority of the world now lives in a country that is inhospitable to.

[Ben Rhodes]

Journalism.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. We need to kind of turn that back around. Fifteen years ago, that wasn't the case. Right. And I think these things can change very quickly. But once you lose that freedom of expression, once you lose windows into societies from independent journalists, really hard to get them.

[Ben Rhodes]

Back.

[Tommy Vietor]

Yeah. I also think there's just so much ignorance in the US about what a journalist is and does. I mean, I saw people. I saw a bunch of people on Twitter over the weekend, including, like, smart people that I respect saying things like, boy, you log on to X and it feels like the Iran protests are the biggest story in the world, and they're being covered and talked about everywhere. And then you go to the mainstream media and you're not seeing that. And I'm just like, guys, like, retweeting a protester's video is easy, and it's great, and I'm glad you're doing it. And the algorithm feeds you more. But, like, journalists can't go to Iran because they'll get thrown in prison like my friend.

[Jason Rezaian]

Did. It's. Exactly. And, you know, I agree that our coverage is lacking, but it's not. You know, we didn't create that problem. Right. I have a whole long list of folks who would fly to Tehran tonight and report for the Washington Post, the New York Times, for crooked media, for cnn, for everybody else, if they were able to do.

[Tommy Vietor]

That.

[Jason Rezaian]

Right. And, you know, I think you're right. I mean, there's. There's this trope about, you know, the mainstream media, and, you know, we're this big evil cabal. We're just a group of humans trying to effectively and honestly and accurately tell people important stories about what's going on around the world. And I think, you know, the tools that we have at our disposal should make that more possible than ever. But, you know, breaking through these. These repressive systems and. And empowering individuals to tell stories from their communities, I think is the next. The next chapter of journalism, if we want to. If we want it to.

[Tommy Vietor]

Survive. Well, that's the thing. People don't really respect and appreciate how hard the last elements you said there are to do, which is the honest, daily, inaccurately part, because on social media, people don't care about.

[Jason Rezaian]

That. But you can just say whatever you want.

[Tommy Vietor]

Right. I think you lose your job if you get it.

[Jason Rezaian]

Wrong. Yeah, totally. And you know, the, the, there's a whole line of journalism, you know, visual forensics. Right. You know, the work is really to, to take open source video and piece together from different places what actually happened. And just the verification aspects of that take days. And I can tell you those tools are getting better, faster and cheaper, but it's still not as easy as retweeting something that lands in your.

[Tommy Vietor]

Lap. Right. Well, listen, thank you all for listening to this interview. If you want to hear more about Jason's story, his time in even prison, you know, how he got out, how it all played out, please go over to the 544 days feed. It's available wherever you get your podcast. It's an amazing show, amazing story. And Jason, thank you so much for coming back on the.

[Jason Rezaian]

Show. Always a pleasure, Tommy. Thank.

[Tommy Vietor]

You. All right, that's it for us today. Thank you all for listening. Thanks again for subscribing and talk to you next week. Pod Save the World is a Crooked Media production. Our senior producer is Ilona Minkowski. Our associate producer is Michael Goldsmith. Our executive producers are me, Tommy Vitor and Ben Rhodes. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Kanter is our audio engineer. Audio support by Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Thanks to our digital team, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, William Jones, David Toles and Ryan Young. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Adrian Hills, our senior senior vice president of news and politics. If you want to listen to Pod Save the World ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple.

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[Jason Rezaian]

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