Pod Save the World: "Putin’s Wildest Dreams Come True" (February 19, 2025)

Hosts: Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes
Produced by: Crooked Media
Release Date: February 19, 2025

Introduction

In this gripping episode of Pod Save the World, hosts Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes delve into a monumental shift in U.S. foreign policy that is reshaping global geopolitics. Titled "Putin’s Wildest Dreams Come True," the episode explores the recent rapprochement between the United States and Russia, the sidelining of Ukraine and European allies, the rise of far-right movements in Europe, and the devastating global impact of cuts to USAID programs. The discussion is enriched with insights from Max Seddon, Moscow Bureau Chief of the Financial Times, providing an in-depth understanding of Russia’s perspective amidst these developments.

1. US-Russia Diplomacy: Putin's Dreams Unfold

a. Trump-Putin Call and Bilateral Peace Talks

The episode opens with the revelation that former President Donald Trump initiated a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine. This unprecedented move ended over three years of Western isolation of Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Announced via Twitter reads on [00:00], the U.S. and Russia agreed to hold a series of bilateral peace talks, potentially including high-level visits by Trump to Moscow or Putin to the U.S. Ben Rhodes underscores the significance: "This is a historic Pod Save the World episode." [02:21]

b. Three-Stage Plan: Ceasefire, Elections, Peace Agreement

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff led the first round of talks in Saudi Arabia with Russian officials Sergei Lavrov and Yuri Ushakov. Rubio outlined a three-stage plan: a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, and a final peace agreement [06:25]. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy opposes holding elections amid ongoing conflict, challenging the feasibility of this plan.

c. Exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from Talks

A critical point of contention is the exclusion of Ukraine and European allies from the negotiations. Tommy Vietor remarks, "We're just saying our allies, our friends, and the people that were invaded are not allowed to participate in the peace talks." [10:04] Ben Rhodes echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the punitive nature of sidelining Ukraine: "It's absolutely absurd to think that you're negotiating the end of a war with only one of the parties of the war." [09:12]

d. Trump's Statements and US Policy Shift

Marco Rubio praised Trump's ability to initiate peace talks, claiming, "President Trump is the only one that can do it." [06:25] However, Ben Rhodes criticizes this approach, likening it to a "rug pull" that undermines years of U.S. commitment to European security and support for Ukraine: "It's a dramatic shift from 75 years of US foreign policy." [09:12]

2. Rolling Back US Commitment to Europe

a. Historical Role of US in European Security

The United States has long been the guarantor of European security, a role established to deter Nazi aggression and counter Soviet influence during the Cold War. This commitment has been foundational to NATO and the stability of the European continent.

b. Abandoning Ukraine and European Allies

The current policy shift represents a stark departure from this longstanding role. By excluding Ukraine and European nations from peace negotiations, the U.S. is perceived as abandoning its allies. Ben Rhodes describes this move as a "complete unraveling of any kind of international order" [09:12].

c. Comparisons to Cold War Leverage

The hosts draw parallels to Cold War dynamics, where U.S. and Soviet interactions were often mediated through high-stakes arenas like Olympic hockey games [01:27-02:12]. The current shift away from collective Western strategies towards a more transactional U.S.-Russia relationship marks a significant geopolitical realignment.

3. Impact on European Politics

a. J.D. Vance's Munich Security Conference Speech

J.D. Vance's recent visit to Germany for the Munich Security Conference has ignited fears of increased far-right influence in European politics. In his speech, Vance criticized European leaders for not addressing internal threats, indirectly supporting Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has been labeled as the contemporary heir to Nazi ideology [24:45-25:14].

b. Support for German AfD and Far-Right in Europe

Ben Rhodes recounts Vance's engagement with AfD leader Alex Vital, highlighting the troubling endorsement of extremist ideologies: "JD Vance decides to lecture Europe about social media censorship while supporting neo-Nazi factions like the AfD." [24:45-25:14]

c. German Federal Election and Rise of AfD

Germany's federal election on February 23rd saw the AfD polling at 20-22%, raising concerns about a potential coalition with mainstream parties. Ben Rhodes, who attended the Munich Security Conference, notes, "The German far-right is polling at 20-22%, undermining the firewall against far-right influence." [25:05]

d. Developments in Austria and Far-Right Gains

Parallel developments in Austria's elections reveal the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) gaining traction, with internal negotiations faltering over key issues like security, immigration, and pro-Russian stances. Ben Rhodes explains, "The far right is just gaining and gaining and gaining," reflecting a broader European trend [37:49].

4. USAID Cuts and Global Fallout

a. Impact on Vietnam's Agent Orange Victims

The episode sheds light on the devastating consequences of U.S. aid cuts, particularly for victims of Agent Orange in Vietnam. Up to 3 million people, including 150,000 children with developmental disabilities, have been left without crucial support [54:28].

b. Refugee Camp in Thailand with US Aid Cuts

In Thailand, a refugee camp housing 30,000 individuals fleeing Myanmar's civil war has been severely impacted. USAID cuts have led to the closure of the only hospital in the camp, forcing refugees to seek medical care 30 minutes away, resulting in numerous preventable deaths [54:28].

c. Harrowing Stories from Kenya's USAID Cuts

Greg Walters, Crooked Media’s newsletter editor, shares harrowing accounts from Kenya where USAID program closures have led to over 330 deaths within three weeks. Mackenzie Knowles Corson, formerly of USAID in Kenya, describes the urgent need for antiretroviral medications for HIV-positive individuals and the collapse of tuberculosis treatment programs [54:28-56:24].

d. Moral and Humanitarian Concerns

Tommy Vietor expresses deep moral outrage over the abrupt termination of life-saving programs, stating, "These are people we actively harmed and we're just ripping this support away." [56:24-56:58] Ben Rhodes adds, emphasizing the human cost and long-term damage to America's global standing: "People will die. This is a moral issue that will stick to this country forever." [56:24-58:28]

5. Ceasefire in Gaza

a. Hostage Releases and Ceasefire Conditions

The episode covers recent developments in the Gaza ceasefire deal. Hamas has agreed to release six living hostages in exchange for allowing mobile homes and heavy machinery into Gaza for rubble removal. Additionally, Hamas is set to release the bodies of four deceased hostages, including two infants [07:48-20:21].

b. Next Phases of Negotiation

With the first phase of the ceasefire approaching completion, indirect negotiations for the second phase are set to begin, focusing on reconstruction and further hostages' release. However, the end of Trump’s influence on the peace process poses uncertainties about the long-term success of these negotiations [07:48-21:27].

c. Ongoing Violence and Future Prospects

Ben Rhodes and Tommy discuss the precarious nature of the ceasefire, noting that while initial agreements hold, the absence of U.S. support and the aggressive stance from political leaders like Trump could derail future peace efforts [21:28-22:21].

6. Interview with Max Seddon: Russian Perspectives and European Instability

a. Russia's Reception of US Policy Shift

Max Seddon, Moscow Bureau Chief of the Financial Times, provides a detailed analysis of how the Russian government perceives the recent U.S.-Russia rapprochement. He states, "The Russians have tried to play this down and express cautious optimism, but ... Russia has got a lot of concessions, which is an enormous triumph for Russia." [71:20-73:16] This marks a significant victory for Putin, aligning with his vision of a new world order where Russia holds substantial influence.

b. Far-Right Influence Supporting Russian Goals

Seddon explains that the rise of far-right parties in Europe, supported by figures like J.D. Vance, aligns with Russian objectives to weaken NATO and European unity. "These maximalist demands...the U.S. has conceded all of that, which is a spectacle Russia would be thrilled about." [73:16-74:03]

c. Potential for Further Russian Interference and Aggression

The discussion highlights concerns over Russian ambitions to undermine NATO and exert influence in the Baltics and other Eastern European countries. Seddon warns, "If the U.S. does not respond in any kind of serious way, that essentially shows that Article 5, the collective defense clause of NATO, amounts for nothing." [75:08-77:28] This creates vulnerability in regions like the Baltics, where Russian aggression could destabilize European security further.

d. State of Russian Internal Politics and Opposition

Seddon sheds light on the suppressed state of Russian opposition, noting that internal dissent is minimal due to effective suppression and societal norms. "The majority has always been passive, and those actively against the war have been very effectively suppressed." [89:00-89:28] This maintains Putin’s stronghold despite economic hardships due to the war.

7. Iranian Nuclear Program and US-Israel Tensions

a. Leaked Intelligence Reports

The hosts discuss recent reports from The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post indicating that Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities within the first half of 2025. These reports are based on leaked U.S. intelligence and suggest mounting pressure on the United States to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions [71:02-76:02].

b. Trump’s Stance on Iran Strikes

Contrasting the U.S. intelligence reports, Trump downplays the possibility of joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, suggesting such reports are exaggerated: "Reports that the United States working in conjunction with Israel is going to blow Iran into smithereens are greatly exaggerated." [75:08-76:02]

c. Potential Risks and Geopolitical Implications

Tommy Vietor raises concerns about the CIA’s increasing involvement in Mexico’s war on drugs via drone operations, while Ben Rhodes speculates about the potential for aggressive U.S. actions under Trump, paralleling past military interventions [48:37-52:56]. The episode cautions against the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, which could escalate tensions further.

8. Conclusion

Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes wrap up the episode by emphasizing the profound and potentially destabilizing changes in global politics driven by the U.S. pivot towards Russia and the neglect of traditional alliances. They highlight the rise of far-right movements in Europe, the humanitarian crises resulting from USAID cuts, and the precarious steps towards peace in Gaza. The interview with Max Seddon adds depth to the understanding of Russia’s strategic gains and the vulnerabilities within European security frameworks.

Notable Quotes:

• Tommy Vietor [05:14]: "This is a historic Pod Save the World episode."
• Ben Rhodes [09:12]: "It's absolutely absurd to think that you're negotiating the end of a war with only one of the parties of the war."
• Max Seddon [73:16]: "The United States has conceded all of that, some of it before negotiations even begun."
• Ben Rhodes [37:49]: "The far right is just gaining and gaining and gaining."
• Tommy Vietor [56:24]: "These are people we actively harmed and we're just ripping this support away."

Key Takeaways

• U.S.-Russia Diplomacy: The U.S.'s recent engagement with Russia, excluding Ukraine and European allies, marks a significant departure from traditional foreign policy, potentially emboldening Russia's geopolitical ambitions.

• Rise of Far-Right Movements in Europe: Influential figures like J.D. Vance supporting far-right parties are undermining European unity and strengthening Russia's influence, threatening NATO's effectiveness.

• Humanitarian Crisis from USAID Cuts: Abrupt termination of U.S. aid programs is causing severe humanitarian crises worldwide, highlighting the moral and ethical implications of foreign policy shifts driven by personal and political agendas.

• Ceasefire in Gaza: Recent hostage releases show cautious progress, but the overall peace process remains fragile amid U.S. foreign policy uncertainties.

• Russian Internal Politics: Russia remains internally stable under Putin despite economic hardships, with effective suppression of opposition ensuring continuous support for the war effort.

• Iranian Nuclear Threat: Leaked intelligence suggests potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising concerns about further Middle Eastern instability under uncertain U.S. leadership.

Final Thoughts

"Putin’s Wildest Dreams Come True" serves as a sobering analysis of the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the far-reaching consequences of the U.S. abandoning its role as a global guarantor of security. The episode warns of increased Russian influence, the destabilization of European democracies, and the human cost of foreign policy realignments. Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes provide a compelling narrative that underscores the urgent need for coherent and principled foreign policy to maintain global stability and uphold democratic values.

Note: All timestamps correspond to the podcast transcript provided.