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A
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B
I'm Ben Rhodes.
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A
Ben, that was a hell of a time in Chicago last week for the Obama library opening. Man, it's fun to see you briefly at Whirlwind.
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B
Yeah, I got to parachute in for the book tour, so I didn't get to go to all the parties you guys went to, but I still had a great time.
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A
You missed the hangovers, which is nice for you. Well, maybe you didn't. I don't know. You spent a day with Cody as well, so you might have actually tacked on both of those.
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B
Yeah, well, I'm hungover from fatigue from this book tour, but I got to tour the museum on the day that it was open to the public.
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A
That's cool.
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B
For the first day. And that was really kind of special because it was basically all kind of Southside families, and I was the kind of only person there, like, who was kind of an alumni. And so I got to kind of watch how other people were reacting to it, and that was pretty cool, you know?
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A
That is really cool. Yeah. Like, not to be corny, but it felt like a family reunion and also a revival that left me feeling like, I don't know, like, what other work reunion like that? Are you that happy to see so many different people, like, genuinely, like, overjoyed to, like, reconnect with people? And then also, I like, again, not to be corny, but it really did make me want to just be more involved in politics and, like, more civically engaged and less of, like, a cynical asshole on Twitter, which, you know, we'll see how long that holds. But it was. It was well done.
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B
Yeah. I have to say, like, it affected me more than I thought it would both to have, like, thousands of people there that I knew or could recognize, but also just the kind of. Without even trying that hard. The contrast of having whatever you think of the Obamas not being perfect, decent, well meaning, motivated, articulate people who have a certain decorum and respect for politics in the country as contrasted against the nightmare that we live in every day. I mean, it was a powerful contrast.
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A
Yeah, the bar is low. I mean, Sasha and Malia were not day trading on the Obama operation on Calshi or whatever.
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B
Yeah, they didn't have a drone. They weren't selling drone technology to the U.S. government. Yeah.
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A
But yeah, no, it was an awesome, awesome week. By the way, if you want discounted tickets to another fun, exciting, inspiring live event, I'm of course talking about CricketCon 2026. Consider becoming a Friend of the Pod subscriber. CricketCon's coming up in November 5th. Friend of the Pod subscribers get ad free episodes of this show, ad free episodes of Pod Save America. Get tons of bonus content, including extra Pod Save America episodes. Get deep dives into polling from Dan Pfeiffer newsletters and a lot more. But also discounted tickets to CrookedCon. Cool VIP experiences at CrookedCon. So go to crooked.com friends to learn more. So we got a great show for you guys today. We're gonna explain what's in the ceasefire memorandum that was signed by the US and Israel. We'll walk you through all the details. Which side got what they wanted, what's left to be negotiated, what's not mentioned at all, what we'll also recap the first round of peace talks in Switzerland and explain why there is still considerable ongoing risk of global economic disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and also a return to war, especially in Lebanon. Then we're going to turn to the historic political changes happening in the uk, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he's going to step down and newly elected MP Andy Burnham will almost certainly take his place. Then we're going to talk about why Israel decided to become the first country in the world to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland. We'll cover the recent elections in Colombia and then revel in the joy that is the FIFA World Cup. And then, Ben, you did an interview today. What are we gonna hear?
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B
So I talked to Rana Ayub, the extraordinary investigative journalist from India who's been on the POD a couple times. We talk about this new cockroach movement that has emerged in India against corruption and Modi. If you wanna know more about how there is a movement called the Cockroach movement that has caught fire, definitely check out the interview. We'll also hear about how Modi's up and down relationship with Trump is playing in India, how the war in Iran is impacting Indians, how the bromance with Netanyahu, which included a trip to Israel on the eve of the War in Iran that has now wreaked havoc on the Indian economy has gone down. So good. Check in on India, which we haven't done in a while. Indian politics and foreign policy people should check it out.
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A
Didn't the US Shoot like a bunch of missiles into a ship and they'd killed three Indian sailors in the Strait of Hormuz?
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B
That's it. Yeah. Rana talked about this too. This is the they killed three Indian sailors and Modi said nothing about it.
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A
Can you imagine if they did that to us? It'd be a World War Four.
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B
Yeah.
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A
Anyway, I will definitely always listen to Rana Ayub. She's an incredible journalist, like, you know, bravely doing work under great threat to herself and, you know, people around her. So thanks to her for coming on the show. All right, let's start with the what's in this MOU Ben, because late last week we finally got to see the text of the memorandum of understanding signed by the US And Iran. And it's now clear why Trump was trying to hide the thing and not disclose it. So the peace talks have also already begun. We'll get to that second, but we're going to start just by walking you guys through what is and what is not in this document. So there's a ceasefire, including in Lebanon. The two sides agreed to 60 days of negotiations, but that negotiating period, period can be extended. During that time, though, the 60 days, both sides will end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US will start to move military assets out of the region that were used as part of the war. And then Iran says they will not put fees on ships passing through the Strait during the next 60. But down the road it sure seems like they are planning to. And then this is the list of stuff that I sort of categorized as what Iran wanted and got out of the deal. So the US is going to put in place a 60 day waiver, a sanctions waiver on the sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products and derivatives and such. One progressive economist estimated that Iran could make up to $10 billion off of that move alone. At some point in the near future, Iran's going to get access to about 24 billion in frozen assets. This is mostly money from previous Iranian oil sales that got stuck in foreign bank account because of sanctions. And the MOU language is quite clear that they can spend this money on whatever they want. Like this is the text. The funds quote shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran gets a commitment to remove all sanctions. That means US sanctions, UN sanctions, all of them. And then there's this weird proposal to put together a $300 billion reconstruction fund of private money for Iran. I'm skeptical that this is ever going to happen, but Reuters says there's been 150 billion in commitments. So who know? And then in terms of the US wish list, Ben, so the Strait of Hormuz gets reopened. Kinda like in theory we're back to the pre war status quo, but in practice it's a lot more complicated because shipping companies need to feel safe before they're going to send their massive multibillion dollar tankers into war zones. Iran reaffirms that they will never have a nuclear weapon. We say reaffirm because they've already affirmed it before, both in the NPT and the jcpoa. Getting them to say that is not the hard part. Negotiating the ways to prevent it is the hard part. And then in terms of enrichment, whether Iran will enrich nuclear materials going forward, it says the two parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment. So they punt on that big question. And then in terms of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, Iran has agreed to at least downblend its stockpile of enriched uranium, but not necessarily to ship it out of the country. Downblending means you reduce the purity of the stockpile so that it is less close to weapons grade. So maybe you down blend it to 3.7% or 3.67%, which is what you use in civilian energy projects, or 0.7% is sort of like what's found in nature. But of course you can then enrich it back up if it remains in the country. So not mentioned in this deal is Iran's support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Also not mentioned is Iran's ballistic missile program, which at the beginning of the war we were told was this massive existential threat that had to be taken care of. Don't take it from me, Ben. Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability. Why does Iran want that ballistic missile capability? What they are trying to do, and have been trying to do for a very long time, is build a conventional
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B
weapons capability as a shield where they can hide behind, meaning there would come a point where they have so many
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A
conventional missiles, so many drones, and can inflict so much damage that no one can do anything about their nuclear program.
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B
Iran was building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield for their nuclear Black male ambitions. Let me say that again. A conventional shield for their nuclear black male ambitions.
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A
Our bases, our people, our allies, all in their crosshairs. Iran had a conventional gun to our
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B
head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb.
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A
Forgot we already also put the war crime beat poet Pete Hegseth in that clip. So, Ben, we've said this many times. The best available deal was the one that happened fastest and reopened the Strait of Hormuz and prevented economies in Asia from collapsing and failing, famines from kicking off around the world. But in terms of the stated goals of this war, reading that document, we now know for sure that Trump got taken to the cleaners by the Iranians.
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B
Yeah, And I think you can compare it to also where they were in the negotiating table before the war, because we have to remember that we bombed Iran in the middle of a previous negotiation. And again, in that previous negotiation, the US Position was absolutely no enrichment, absolutely no support for proxy groups and geographic limitations on the ballistic missile program. That is, they can't reach Israel with ballistic missiles. The ballistic missiles and the proxy groups are completely off the table. Enrichment is punted. So it's not really dealt with in this. And then if you look at, compared to the jcpoa, Iran did not get any money from its own frozen assets, any money whatsoever, until after it did all of its commitments under the jcpoa. Shipping out its stockpile, ripping out centrifuges, destroying the core of its plutonium reactor, submitting to inspections. They're getting that 10 billion just upfront. Like, if they're able to start selling oil right away or accessing. Yeah. So they're getting that money without having to do anything with their nuclear program. Essentially upfront, we don't know what the final commitments are going to be on the nuclear side. We don't know what the inspections regime is going to be to ensure that Iran carries through on its obligations. It's incredibly loose. And the body language of the deal is one of surrender. It's one of, Iran won this war, we failed in our objectives. Trump wants out. He's far more worried about continuing the war, continuing to have the Strait of Hormuz shut down because of the economic impacts than he is scared of what Iran will do with the money or how it's going to look that Iran seemingly defeated the United States in this conflict, that Bibi Netanyahu is upset about it. That's very clear to the whole world. And so that suggests that there's not a lot of pressure on Iran to make significant commitments in this next negotiating period, because they know that Trump just kind of wants out of this thing. And so however this all shakes out, Iran is in a stronger position than they were before the war. The United States. Trump is doing all the things that he trashed Obama for doing and frankly, lied about some of the things that Obama was doing. And I mean, like, there's no way to look at this other than a complete humiliation for Trump.
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A
Yeah, look, I'm glad the war is over, but I do think it's important to just call out how full of shit and hypocritical Trump and a lot of his goons were both in the lead up to this war, but also in their criticisms of the jcpoa. I mean, like, I found this old tweet Tim Miller forwarded to me today, Ben. It was JD Vance attacking me personally and saying it was, quote, complete idiocy to suggest there was a distinction between unfreezing assets and giving Iran money. I wonder if he still believes that. Or me suggesting that some sort of diplomatic deal could force Iran to spend money on humanitarian supplies like JD Vance is now claiming this deal does. But it wasn't just JD being a hypocritical piece of shit. It was a bunch of them. Let's roll a clip here.
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B
Iran was a country that was in deep trouble. They were doing badly. And then we took the sanctions off. And we should have never taken the sanctions off before we finished the deal. We took the sanctions off before.
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A
You know why?
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B
They're great negotiators.
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A
They said, we will not negotiate unless
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B
you take the sanctions off. And our guy said, okay, if you
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A
want to check Iran, the way to do it is to, one, withdraw their oil money, which, of course, Joe Biden's been mad about.
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B
I do want to be recorded for history's purposes before I know what was going to happen in regards to this. If it goes through, Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving and sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities. It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States, and it will raise the price of us operating in the region.
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A
Consider yourself recorded for history, Marco. It's just a little later than you thought.
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B
It's just at the time that the JCPOA happened, they were making these bad faith arguments, right, that the unfrozen assets that Iran was getting under the JCPOA again, after they did far more significant things on nuclear commitments, was like writing a check to the Iranians. Right? And now they're making the exact same arguments. Like, they don't even. I mean, because, you know, they have no shame. There's a kind of, you know, bottomless well for them in terms of their capacity for hypocrisy. I think that the important point here, though, is that the failure. Right. There's two failures that deserve to truly be highlighted here. Because, you know, it's not so much just a failure of diplomacy, it's the failure of the war. Right. This is the point. Like, going to war left us in a much worse place than using diplomacy did.
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A
Yes.
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B
This is the main lesson that Americans, Democrats, and hopefully some Republicans will take from this. The reason these terms are shitty is not just because they're shitty negotiators. It's because they had a shittier hand because they went to war. Exactly. And all the decades of hearing that the way you show you're tough and the way to solve problems is to bomb countries and to go to war was just proven, like, categorically wrong. And I think the other thing that deserves to be called out here is the absolute bad faith characterizations of diplomacy in the past because they spent years discrediting a nuclear deal that they now would give anything to get. Exactly. And there has to be some accountability for this. And our politics. Politics and our media is so bad at holding. Why is anybody gonna ask Lindsey Graham his opinion on anything ever again?
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A
Dude, I lost my mind.
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B
Or Marco Rubio, for that matter.
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A
Or Rubio.
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C
Right.
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A
I mean, I saw Lindsey Graham on Face the Nation this Sunday, and he was saying, well, if this deal doesn't work out, we're gonna go back to war, and then Trump's gonna take control of the strait, then we're gonna take 20% of all the revenue for the oil that goes through. And it's like, why are you booking this fucking moron on your show? Exactly how many wars does he have to be wrong about? He was wrong about Iraq. He was wrong about Iran. He's a barnacle who just, like, lives on Trump's ass. And we don't need to hear from this man. We don't. I don't ever need to hear from Mark Dubowitz or anyone at the foundation for the Defense of Democracy think tank. Like, no one has been as thoroughly discredited that these stupid, warmonger, bloodthirsty neocon hacks. Run them out of Washington. Stop quoting them in your articles. David Sanger, New York Times. Like, all of you, like, lose their phone numbers, please. They are fucking clowns.
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B
Yeah, they're Just pissing on your leg, you know? And, I mean, I'm sorry that you gave me an image that I will always have of Lindsey Graham being a barnacle Donald Trump's ass. You're welcome. But. But it's. It's absolutely correct. And because this is the point that this connects to what I was saying about the war and the accountability, you are treated as serious in Washington. Yep. If you want to bomb countries. Right. So, like, if you're a super progressive, if you're like a leftist in Congress, you would never get booked on a Sunday show because it's like that person doesn't. That's not a serious foreign policy person. Right. Lindsey Graham is far less serious. This is a man who just advocates for war and then can turn on a dime if Donald Trump instructs him to do so. He's not the FDD crowd. And all the people that sold this war posing essentially as impartial experts when they were clearly just fucking pushing an agenda to do this. And now we did the thing that they wanted, and it proved out to be catastrophically wrong. So there's no reason that you need to, like, treat these people as experts just because they want to fight wars. And I've said this a couple times before, Tommy, but, like, it was harder to get the JCPOA through Congress than it was to go to war in Iraq, than it was for Donald Trump to go to war in Iran. That's fucked up. And that's what needs to change in American politics and media and foreign policy.
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A
In 2015, the Congress passed a special law just to make it harder to do a diplomatic deal with Iran, but they've completely just, like, given up their role in declaring war or authorizing war. It's insane. Let's talk about the peace talks, though, Ben, because the negotiations between Iran, the US took place in Burgenstock, Switzerland, over the weekend. You see photos of this resort they were at, by the way. Look pretty sick. It looked pretty nice. Sound music yeah, Things got off to a rocky start On Saturday, the IRGC announced they were closing the Strait of Hormuz again because of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. I don't think they actually did it, but traffic is nowhere near where it was before the war. So Trump took that announcement by the IRGC very well, telling Fox News, quote, you close it and you won't have a country. You won't even make it back to your fucking country. End quote. So it's always good to threaten to kill the negotiators right before you have A little chat. Despite all of that, the talks finally happened. Unfortunately, they were led by JD Vance, who's a clown and kind of like the bumbling idiot traveling duo of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The two sides claim to have agreed to the following the establishment of a high level committee to provide political oversight on the talks. And then there's a working group of actually qualified people that will do most of the work in the negotiations. They agreed on a roadmap to get the deal done in 60 days, communications line to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and then a, quote, deconfliction cell to ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MoU, end quote. So they're trying to find some sort of way to prevent fighting from Hezbollah and Israel from flaring up into a rupture that sort of blows up the whole thing. But there's also some major disagreements or at least competing claims from the two sides. So J.D. vance and Trump are saying that Iran agreed to let IAEA inspectors back into Iran. But Iran says they have no plans to let inspectors back into sites bombed by the US and Israel. Remember before the 12 Day War, the IAEA had access to those sites. Then they got kicked out because the war started. Vance also tried to claim that unfrozen Iranian assets would only be used to buy American crops. As I discussed earlier, Iran is saying, no, we can spend that money on whatever we want. It's kind of in the terms of the deal. Trump claims the strait is fully open. That's moving at record volumes. The reality is like a couple dozen ships a day are going through that is not even close to the pre war levels. And there's still naval mines to contend with. And then Trump says Iran will never charge a toll on ships in the Strait. But Iran has already set up this new company to eventually charge insurance for ships passing through the strait. Then I saw this announcement today from the Iranians and Oman where they announced they're discussing costs for the services they provide. So again, it sure sounds like they're setting up a tol there. Both sides sounded an optimistic note on the way out. Iran's foreign minister said, quote, Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end the Lebanon War. And then this is a clip from JD Vance's couple of press avails. Let's watch. Yesterday was a very, very good day. We made a lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted to do. The final deal is the house we set, the foundation. We haven't built the house, but we've laid a successful foundation to get to a good place for the American people. What we told the Iranians yesterday is when you guys engage in what us millennials might call trash talk, you can't expect the President of the United States not to respond and not to correct the record. This region has been a basket case for a very long time. I've spent a lot of time dealing with the Iranians over the last few months. Sometimes I find them extremely confusing as negotiators. Okay. I love, like, a plodding, pedantic metaphor followed by him defining what trash talk is. Sort of like insulting the other party. But I don't know, Ben. Consider me skeptical. These guys are getting a nuclear deal done. I bet there's kind of bad, you know, punt this thing, you know, keep extending talks, keep shipping going. But what do you think?
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B
Yeah, I mean, that's the thing, because, like, Iran knows a few things, right? So the first is, I mean, a few months ago, you know, we made this comparison, but in the Suez crisis, right, when England and France and Israel went to war to stop Egypt from nationalizing the Suez, guess what ended up happening on the back end of that? Egypt kept tolling the Suez. They're still doing it today. Iran has shown that they can extract revenue from the Strait of Hormuz. So they know that they can do that even if they don't get a nuclear deal. Right. So even if they don't get a nuclear deal, they can try to find some money by saying, like, there's some new insurance premium you have to pay, and you have to pay to both Iran and Oman. So it feels like it's not just Iranians. And so, again, they don't necessarily need some additional sanctions relief to find more revenue absent a nuclear deal. The second thing they know is how likely is it that, given how calamitous and politically catastrophic this was for Trump, how likely is it that no matter what Lindsey Graham says that, that Trump's going to go back to war with Iran in 60 days, right before midterm elections. You didn't get a nuclear deal. Yeah. So I think it's quite possible, if not likely, that Iran, like, pockets that 10 billion. Maybe they get that 24 billion. Maybe they get some of the $300 billion investment fund that's going in there, which, who knows, maybe Jared and Witkoff are getting in on the game for Iranian infrastructure. I don't know. Just asking questions here wouldn't surprise me. But they can. Yeah, they can still get tons of money and control the Strait of Hormuz without making any nuclear concessions. And they also know that J.D. vance, you know, they don't like it when Trump threatens to destroy their country, because who would? And they don't like when he threatens to kill the negotiators, because in the past, they have bombed and killed people that were in the Iranian political system during negotiations. But they also know that J.D. vance just wants to get through the next Fox News.
- [24:46]
A
He wants out of there. He wants to get back on his plane and go home.
- [24:50]
B
He wants to stop Tucker Carlson for running for president in his lane next time around. And so if J.D. vance needs to do a Fox hit and talk about how they're only buying American crops. And the text says what it does. Like, all right, J.D. like, go lie and gaslight your own people, because the Iranians are gonna have that money anyway. So the Iranians are, again, to use a Trump terminology, they're holding, like, all the fucking cards. And J.D. vance is just, like, spinning around in circles to be the one who rebuilds his cred with, like, Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson.
- [25:19]
A
Yeah, I just. Yeah, J.D. vance was talking about the stupid, like, forcing them to buy American wheat and corn deal like it was some brilliant idea from. From Jared Kushner, of all people. But you're right. I mean, like, I just saw the delegations, and it's, like, on our side, it's these bumbling idiots who just want to make money and get back to their talks with the Russian oligarchs and not solve the war in Ukraine. And on their side, it's, like, incredibly experienced diplomats and nuclear experts who have literally nothing else and nothing better to do with their lives. And they will grind them down into a pulp if that's what it' takes.
- [25:51]
B
Yeah, it's the same people. Abbas Arachi, the foreign minister, like, negotiated for years with us the last nuclear deal like these. And they'll be there. Guess what? They'll also be there after Trump. They know that Trump's gone in, like, two years. And Jared was Jared, like, remember, like, Scott Besson turned out to be a soybean farmer. You really think that Jared Kushner wakes up every day worried about, like, selling wheat to somebody? No, Jared Kushner is probably more interested in getting, again, a piece of the action of the $300 billion Gulf fund that's going into Iranian infrastructure.
- [26:19]
A
Yeah, he's focus on getting deals for the Saudis or whoever is paying his checks. Pod Save the World is brought to you by three Day Blinds. When you're one of those people that needs to sleep in complete darkness, nothing is worse than blinds that allow light to pour in at the crack of dawn. It's 2026. Are your blinds still from 2006? There's a better way to buy blinds, shade shutters and drapery. It's called three day Blinds. They are the leading manufacturer of high quality custom window treatment in the United States. We can shop for almost anything at home. Why not shop for blinds at home too? Three Day blinds is local, professionally trained design consultants who have an average of 10 or more years of experience who can provide expert guidance on the blinds that are right for you in the comfort of your home. Just set up an appointment. You'll get free no obligation quote the same day. With three day Blinds, you can choose from thousands of options that fit any budget or style. 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Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry Me. Think about your career. Maybe it looks fine on paper, but does something feel a bit off? Maybe you're stuck. Maybe you're burned out, ready to move up to the next level. Or maybe you just want clarity on what's next. That's where today's sponsored Strawberry Me comes in. Strawberry Me matches you with a real career coach, carefully selected based on your goals, personality, professional background. These aren't random Internet gurus selling their services. Coaches on the platform average 16 or more years of experience across 900 companies in 37 industries. And most have been leaders, founders or executives themselves. And it's not just a single conversation. You have a one on one video call with your coach, build a personalized plan together and stay connected between sessions when a real life challenge arises. Most people hit a meaningful milestone within four to six sessions, whether that's landing a new role, getting unstuck, building confidence, or finally taking action on something they've been putting off for years. I think everybody's had that job or where you've had a mentor or a boss who's really helped guide you along the way. When you lose that, you can really miss it. And Strawberry Me can help you find that person just to reach out to to get some help, get some guidance and build a plan to get you unstuck and along to the next step in your career. Visit Strawberry Me and start with the coaching trial today. Tell them Pod Save the world sent you and get 50% off your first session. One big unresolved problem in the war remains Lebanon. Ben so on Friday, four Israeli soldiers were killed when Hezbollah hit an IDF tank. Israel retaliated, killing at least 47 people. But Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu continues to insist that Israel will not withdraw from the territory it is currently occupying in southern Lebanon and said, quote, our fighters in southern Lebanon have full freedom of action to thwart any direct or emerging threat to them or to the residents of the North End, quote, and that they will stay in Lebanon for as long as is necessary. Now, for what it's worth, CNN has reported that Israel is considering symbolic, limited withdrawals from parts of the country, I assume to make Trump happy. But Netanyahu is getting hammered by his political opponents for this deal, especially what's happening in Lebanon. For example, Naftali Bennett said Netanyahu is not telling the truth about the IDF's freedom of action in southern Lebanon and that, quote, the truth is our boy's hands are tied and that, quote, the enemy understands the limitations and exploits them for rapid reestablishment that will lead to harm to the lives of our soldiers. In other words, he's blamed. He's saying this deal is going to get IDF soldiers killed. Trump seemed oddly surprised by all the pushback in Israel, Ben. Here's a quick clip of him getting asked about Lebanon in the Oval Office on Monday. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said
- [30:41]
B
his forces are not leaving Lebanon. That is a sticking point. Who did he tell that to? You he said it publicly in Israel. Well, we're going to take a look at it. Well, what would you do to make
- [30:50]
A
sure that he doesn't?
- [30:50]
B
Well, I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do, but it gets solved. I'm a problem solver.
- [30:54]
A
I get problem solved real fast, including with Bibi. It's also been interesting to watch kind of like the increasingly aggressive pushback from the White House on Netanyahu and on Israel. So, for example, here's some comments from J.D. vance to kind of make the point that you've seen people in their system, Ben GVIR and Smotrich, who've attacked the deal. And I guess my response to them would be, what is your exact proposal? And you know, you're a country of, of 9 million people. You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have. Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world. Just can only imagine if Barack Obama said that, what AIPAC would be saying. We also heard that Trump suggests that Israel should let get out of Lebanon and let the Syrians take care of Hezbollah. That is an excellent recipe for a brutal regional war since the Syrians hate Hezbollah because they helped Assad massacre the opposition in the Syrian civil war. Luckily, President Ahmed Al Shara said no, thanks to that crazy idea. But Ben, look, again, I'm very concerned that this is going to be the spoiler that blows up the peace talks. I hope I'm wrong, but it sure seems like Netanyahu has a pretty strong political incentive to blow up this deal and just kind of make these attacks on him go away in advance of the election.
- [32:28]
B
Yeah, no, Netanyahu needs a war. Without a war, there's no justification for why he should be prime minister, be it in Iran or Lebanon or Gaza or the west bank or what have you. Now, there's so much that is kind of fucked up about this. So first of all, like, are we not supposed to notice that Israel is occupying southern Lebanon? You know, what is the legal basis under which they're just like, claiming a huge chunk of Lebanese territory and hanging out. And also, like, it's really like, you know, because sometimes the way people talk about this, it acts like, well, you know, Netanyahu, like, you know, he's got a political problem because he needs to continue the war in Lebanon. Like, like consider how profoundly messed up it is that what has gone wrong in Israeli politics, that it's a problem if you're not like, fighting a war and bombing people in Lebanon, like, what has gone wrong in our politics that it's seen as logical that because four Israeli soldiers were killed who are in Lebanon, that they kill 47 civilians in response. The whole world sees this and how dark it is and the degree of frustration in America because Americans know that Netanyahu talked Trump into this is catching up to, frankly, where the whole world is, which is why on earth are we justifying and enabling and facilitating and arming an Israeli government to just kind of fight a forever war in Lebanon? Because it's good for Bibi's politics. And then Naftali Bennett, one of his chief opponents, like, is just outflanking him to the right.
- [34:03]
A
All of them.
- [34:04]
B
And that's just how it is.
- [34:04]
A
Gary Lapid, too. Yeah. Everyone from the right. Yeah.
- [34:07]
B
This is dark. It is not normal. We should call it out. It's demonstrating that the problem in Israeli politics is not just Bibi Netanyahu, though he's a big part of it. So that's messed up. J.D. vance's pretty brutish comments here are indicative of where the politics are going in the Republican Party.
- [34:25]
A
Very much so.
- [34:25]
B
We know where the politics are in the Democratic Party. What constituency do people think exists for enabling this? And the last thing I'd say about the deal itself, we just talked about Iran's disincentives for making actual nuclear concessions. This is going to be a giant one because Iran's going to be able to say if this is still going on, if Israel is stalking southern Lebanon. Well, wait a second, you guys didn't implement your side of the deal. Why should we, like, get rid of our enrichment of nuclear materials when Israel is still in southern Lebanon? So it lets Iran off the hook. Ironically, if Israel is violating the terms of the deal because it gives the Iranians a basis for tolling the Strait of Hormuz and not making nuclear concessions because they can say, well, nobody's really keeping the terms of this thing.
- [35:10]
A
Yeah, this is a total mess. I don't have confidence in any of these talks sticking or the Israelis staying on sides in southern Lebanon. But I don't know. I guess all we can do is knock on wood and hope because another closure, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would lead to catastrophic economic consequences and just impact people thousands of miles away who might starve to death. And that's just the worst case scenario. Ben, let's turn to the UK where you are currently. I think you're in London, right?
- [35:36]
B
Yes. So our friends I'm in London by the way. Event tonight, Wednesday in London at Intelligence Squared. If people want to come see me.
- [35:43]
A
Nice. Yeah. Come see Ben bring Kirst armor he's got with Coco.
- [35:47]
B
With Coco Khan is Coco Con is interviewing me.
- [35:49]
A
Oh. So it'll be actually fun and funny. That's great.
- [35:52]
B
I love Coco.
- [35:53]
A
No, I didn't mean it like that. I just mean like she's absolutely.
- [35:55]
B
No, it's true. She's funnier than me. No, she's funnier.
- [35:58]
A
She's funnier than your average book moderator is what I'm getting at. I say saying that as having been one. Usually they're not as like effort vessel as Coco. So our buddies across the pond, we're about to have their seventh prime minister in 10 years. On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that he's going to resign. Here's a bit of his speech outside number 10 Downing Street I was told
- [36:19]
B
time and time again that my party was finished, that we were consigned to history, that a majority at the general election, let alone a landslide majority, was impossible.
- [36:35]
A
But we proved those people wrong.
- [36:38]
B
The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question. Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. I shall spend more time on the most important job being the best husband I can to my fantastic wife Vic, and being the best dad I can to my beautiful children who are my pride and my joy.
- [37:23]
A
So Starmer's resignation came after his political rival Andy Burnham, decisively won his race for Parliament. This was that Makerfield by election that we talked about previously. Burnham got 55% of the vote while his opponent from the right wing Reform UK party only got 33% or 35%. It's about 20 point victory. That huge margin convinced Labor MPs that Burnham was a better option to lead them into the next election. Starmer initially promised to fight for his job, but that all changed after even members of his own cabinet said it was time to go. So what happened and what comes next? On the what happened front, analysts seem to agree on a few reasons why Starmer only made it through two years of a five year term after leading labor to this landslide of victory. Landslide victory back in 2024. So there were a couple smaller things. There were big controversies and scandals like taking free gifts and Then there was the far bigger scandal of naming Jeffrey Epstein's buddy Peter and Mandelson to be ambassador to the uk There were some dumb policy decisions and then backtracking on some policy decisions that made him look weak and indecisive. But the big things you hear is that Starmer just never adequately laid out a vision for the job or a plan for what he wanted to do. And then even when he was successful, he was bad at communicating it. Not just lacking charisma, but I think unable to tell a bigger story about his vision and labor leadership. And frankly, Ben, I think that that farewell speech, not to be unfair to the guy, but it was kind of an example of the kind of dry laundry list stuff we'd hear from him pretty often. So, in terms of what happens next, the Labour Party will have a leadership process, but it seems like former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will almost certainly win it and become the next prime minister. Burnham's one big potential rival was a guy named Wes Streeding. Wes Reading had quit the Starmer Cabinet, but he's already bowed out and endorsed Andy Burnham. Starmer says he wants the process wrapped up by July 16, but things could get done faster. Of course, Donald Trump had to humiliate Starmer on his way out the door by confirming Starmer's resignation before he had had a chance to do it himself. Which is just wonderful move. Wonderful guy. So, Ben, again, you're in the UK as we speak. Class act. Thoughts on the Starmer legacy and Burnham's future. And what's the reaction been like there with the people you've talked to?
- [39:31]
B
Yeah, I was here doing British media all day talking obviously to people who follow politics closely, too. And, I mean, it's kind of anticlimactic. You know, nobody was surprised by the time this happened. I think as soon as Andy Burnham won and won with that result, it was clear if people say, like, well, what's one by election say about his ability to win a general election? I think the basic analysis was like, look, this guy's from Manchester, northern England. This is the kind of part of the country where Labor's been losing a lot of support to reform and other parties. And so not only does he win that election decisively, but he also kind of comes from the region that they need to kind of win back. And so once he won with that margin, it was pretty clear he was going to have the support. It was also the case that all the reporting here was that he'd already lined up essentially a majority of Labor MPs so it was kind of game over for Starmer. Look, I think if you look at the legacy, I guess, on the positive side, because you kind of feel sympathy for someone who won a general election and then he kind of has to resign early. The positive legacy, he's. He won. He kind of positioned labor to be in a place to win a general election and return to power. That matters a lot. And then there's a bunch of smaller things that people can point to, changes that he made in this or that policy, but that kind of leads to the negative. You pointed out what was the big program, what was the big vision? You know, like, what was like, both the story he was telling about where Britain was going and also, like, what are the kind of big agenda items? Like, what was his vision for the nhs, the National Health Service, or for restoring growth in the UK or kind of rebuilding a relationship with Europe after Brexit. Like, he was playing these kind of small ball items in policy. And then his communications was always kind of dry and a bit defensive. And it just like, you just didn't ever have the sense that he kind of had the reins here. And he was always kind of reactive and he was always kind of on defense. And meanwhile, you've got like, Nigel Farage, like, not a person has a problem communicating, like, you know, vaulting up. And I think people just ultimately decided, like, it's just too dangerous. Nobody kind of felt that Starmer was the best choice to kind of lead labor through the next couple years and then into general election against, like, a huge threat to British democracy and reform. And so there's an unknown about what Andy. I mean, the second thing we should say here, Tommy, is that it's not like it's particularly clear what Andy Burnham's vision is.
- [42:00]
A
No, not at all.
- [42:02]
B
Yeah, he's. To Starmer's left, he's a more charismatic politician. And so that's enough for some people, right? Like, he's just a better politician. And for the progressives, like, it seems like he'll be a little bit more where they are. We should add, on the progressive side, a lot of frustration with. Starmer's pretty much aligned with Israel. He didn't really break support on Israel's policy in Gaza. He's kind of prosecuted these people for free speech crimes just because they speak up in defense of Palestine. So that didn't help him on the left either. So, look, I think you can feel bad for the guy and you can kind of say, you know what? He seemed like he did his Best. And he got labor back in power. But. But not exactly a big surprise here.
- [42:48]
A
Yeah, in some ways you could argue that the left in the Labor Party got a lot of what they wanted. Things like good things on workers rights, stuff for trade unions, stuff for renters, a higher minimum wage, some tax hikes. I think he nationalized the trains. But the rail service, you're right. Yeah, they move slowly on Israel at best. But ultimately the polling, it wasn't just that the polling showed that voters wanted it to go. I mean, six in 10 Britons told YouGov that they thought it was the right thing for him to quit. But also there was a poll recently that found that labor, led by Keir Starmer, would be. That reform would be eight points ahead of labor in the election, but with Andy Burnham leading, Labor, reform would only be one point ahead. So there was some polling that suggested labor would be better positioned with Andy Burnham in charge. And then just like results are results, we can look at all the polls you want, but when you're Andy Burnham and you run and you kick the shit out of the Reform candidate in a constituency like the one you described, I mean, that's going to wake a lot of people up. And just to add sort of like the pile on, there's also people blame Keir Starmer for listening to Morgan McSweeney, his advisor, too much. He was primarily focused on with crushing the kind of Corbinista wing of the party. I think that people thought he seemed too dour and gloomy. I saw a great analysis piece where one MP described what happened to Starmer as the fate of the third plumber. So you have a leak in your house, your toilet's broken, the first plumber shows up, it doesn't work. You're like, ugh, that sucks. The second one comes, then it doesn't work, the third one can't get it done and you want to kill that guy. That was kind of the metaphor this person used. You've also heard some analysts say, like, I don't know, man, maybe the UK is now ungovernable as they're going from a two party system to a five, maybe six party system. The biggest problem Andy Burnham is going to have is going to be growth. They've kind of had, you know, they've been stuck in the mud. The wheels have been spinning on economic growth. They have not really reckoned with Brexit. I think we just hit the 10 year anniversary of Brexit and they just still haven't figured that shit out. And then you Have a totally unreliable Donald Trump reminding the world why we're no longer a good ally as the UK is at a Brexit. And I think, you know, Rory Stewart, who I know you talked to today, is always talking about how, if you're looking forward for the UK economically, they have no domestic AI industry. So what happens if the US just cuts off their access to all the anthropic models like we just did the other day? So there's a lot of X factors out there, a lot of challenges ahead.
- [45:15]
B
Yeah, I'm glad you brought up the Brexit thing, because today is actually the 10th anniversary of Brexit, and I think the common thread here is that no British politician has been able to articulate kind of what this country's future is after Brexit. I mean, the right could only articulate getting to Brexit, but not kind of what came next. A lot of the economic problems are because of Brexit. Like, they lost the market access that came with the eu. They're kind of an island, quite literally, and I think so for Andy Burnham, the advice I'd give is, number one, yes, you have these problems. There's not a lot of money and it's hard to find growth. But if you can give a vision, like a big vision about where the horizon is, like, what we're trying to get to, if you can, instead of doing a million little things, pick two or three bigger things that may not fix every problem, but give people a sense of progress in their lives if you do more. Starmer was very tentative about kind of rebuilding relationship with Europe. And maybe you're not going to go all the way back in the EU right away, but begin to negotiate more agreements to get closer to Europe, that kind of indicates, hey, like, we kind of overreached on the Brexit thing. And the last thing I'd say, Tommy, is stand up to Trump. If I'm Andy Burnham, I'm doing the Giorgia Maloney thing, I'm picking fights with Trump, because you know what? Trump's gonna be an asshole anyway. Keir Starmer was really nice to him. He gave him, like, the world carriage ride when he came to town. Like, I actually think Brits need a little confidence here. You know, they need a little, like, Hugh Grant in love, actually. You know, like, I mean, maybe not the best analogy there, but you know what I mean? Like, yeah, there's a lack of confidence here. Right. And they want, if you get strong, visionary leadership and storytelling about what this country is and where it's going. I say this country because I'm sitting here, I think would maybe buy you a little time with voters.
- [46:59]
A
I just think politics is pretty basic and it's like strong, weak, tough, kind of soft. And I think, you know, Keir Starmer just never looked. He looked weak in the face of Trump. And I think you got to figure out a way to fight back and do it a little more assertively, just so you don't look like you're getting walked on. Podcast of the World is brought to you by hims. ED is way more common than most guys think. Millions of guys deal with it at some point, and that's exactly why HIMS offers a straightforward way to handle it. HIMS connects you with a licensed healthcare provider online, giving you simple access to legitimate ED treatment options from home. No awkward appointments, no pharmacy lines. Just complete a simple online intake and a provider will review your information to determine if treatment is right for you. If prescribed, your treatment ships directly to your door in discreet packaging that includes sildenafil, also known as a generic for Viagra, available through Hims at up to 95% less than the name brand version. If that option isn't right for you, there are additional treatment options available so you can find what works best for your body. It's straightforward, transparent and designed to make getting care feel easy. To get simple online access to personalized, affordable care for ed, hair loss, weight loss and more, visit hims.comworld that's hims.comworld for your free online visit hims.comworld this podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all in one website platform designed to elevate your online presence and drive your success. Squarespace gives you the tools to claim your domain, build a professional website, expand your brand and facilitate payments. All in one place With Squarespace's collection of cutting edge design tools, anyone can build a bespoke online presence that perfectly fits their business. Start with Blueprint AI, Squarespace's AI enhanced website builder to get a fully custom website in just a few steps, using basic information about your industry, your goals and your personality to generate premium quality content and personalized design recommendations. Every Dream needs a domain. Squarespace Domains makes it easy to find the best name for your business at one fair, all inclusive price. No hidden fees or add ons required. Squarespace provides everything you need to bring more of your dream to life. Don't wait to claim your name. Invest in your dream domain today. Head to squarespace.com for a free trial and when you're ready to Launch, go to squarespace.com world. Save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. That's squarespace.com world. Let's switch gears, turn to Africa and talk about the relatively new relationship between Israel and a place called Somaliland. So for context, Somaliland is this breakaway self declared state in the Horn of Africa. It declared independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 after a long and brutal civil war. Now, if you look at a map, you'll see Somalia is kind of shaped like the head of an arrow pointing northeast. On the map, the territory running along the Indian Ocean is Somalia. And there's a little chunk at the top along the Gulf of Aden that neighbors Djibouti. That is Somaliland. Somaliland used to be a British colony, but it gained independence in 1960 and united with Somalia. But now they want to basically undo that decision to become an independent state. But one of their challenges has been that no other countries would recognize them until recently. In December of 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu announced that Israel and Somaliland had established diplomatic relations. In March of this year, Bloomberg reported that Israel was trying to build a military base in Somaliland. And then more recently, there have been reports that Israel had already deployed a small number of troops to Somaliland. Israel Katzee, Israeli Defense Minister, said the other day that the two countries had been secretly coordinating for years. So listeners might be wondering why. Why would Israel of all countries support a breakaway state seeking independence? That seems like a bad precedent for them with the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, et cetera.
- [50:38]
B
Right.
- [50:39]
A
The primary reason is the Houthi rebels. So we've talked about the Houthis a bunch. The Houthis are this Iranian backed political and military organization in Yemen that has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States. The Houthis have fired missiles at ships in the Red Sea in protest of the war in Gaza. They've also fired lots of missiles at Israel itself. And so a permanent base in Somaliland would give Israel surveillance and military capabilities that are much closer to Yemen itself. It would let them track Houthi movements and missile launches and whatever else the Houthis and the Iranians are doing in the Gulf of Aden. There's also been reports of a much darker rationale, which is that Somaliland could be a destination for people pushed out of Gaza as part of an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign. The other countries named in the reporting, I think it was an AP story about this, was Sudan and Somalia. So a bunch of very safe places with lots of economic opportunity for the Gazans who would be displaced here. For what it's worth, there are reasonable arguments on the merits for why Somaliland should be its own state. They've been peacefully self governing for over 30 years. They've had elections, they have a currency, they've executed peaceful transfers of power. Meanwhile, Somalia is a disaster. It's a bastion for terrorist groups like Al Shabaab. But a big argument against recognition is that the African Union does not recognize Somaliland, nor do any other African countries, because they don't want to see a wave of breakaway independence movements like that. So the Trump administration was talking about this possible recognition during the transition. I think that then was more about hedging their bets in Djibouti, which is the home to the only permanent US military base in Africa and several thousand US personnel and a whole bunch of drones. But Djibouti, the problem in Djibouti is they basically sell base access to any country that can afford it. So you've got this cluster of bases packed into a tiny area, which means the US base is two miles from the Chinese base, literally. And I think the Pentagon's probably worried about a Niger situation where like a coup or a political change means suddenly you're kicked out of the country and have no access. So Ben, sorry for the long wind up there, but what do you think the logic of this move is for Israel, their real motivation, like why they're going so public with it now? And what are some of the downside risks, do you think?
- [52:45]
B
Well, look, it's pretty obvious that Israel's doing this for strategic reasons. I mean, do we really think, think that in Israeli foreign policy they looked at the entire world and that they decided that there's kind of a moral cause for them to recognize Somaliland? It is clearly strategically placed, as you said, like near the Houthis, which is a concern of Israel's. It's a potential venue for Israeli military intelligence operations, you know, not just against the Houthis, but, you know, kind of in, in the Gulf region generally. And I just think that's a shitty reason to go ahead and be the first country to establish diplomatic relations. There's not like a. I'm sure the talking points are about their self government, but does anybody truly believe again that that's what motivated Yahoo to do this? Right. And so that leads to the risk, because the risk is you're not only kind of destabilizing this region in some ways because the other countries don't want it, but what Are we now saying that like any little breakaway province that has like a grievance and there are many, not just in Africa, but in other places, but like we can just talk about Africa, that essentially if they, you know, offer their territory to some power, be it Israel or somebody else for a military base, like suddenly they can get diplomatic, you know, recognition. It's just another sign that we're in like an age in which everything is just transactional. There are no rules, there's no processes. Institutions like the African Union and the United nations kind of don't matter. It's an end run around all of that. And so I think that's your risk, Right. You're encouraging separatism, you're encouraging the sale of sovereignty for military based purposes. And yes, potentially maybe you're creating a venue for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. So it doesn't smell right, even if you could find cause to have some sympathy to Somaliland. Yeah.
- [54:43]
A
And even in sort of like the direct Horn of Africa region, I mean, I think Ethiopia came closest to recognizing Somaliland, but then they backed away because all their neighbors were not happy about it. But I think they've cut a deal to get port access in Somaliland. The port is actually operated by the Emiratis, weirdly, but that pissed off the Egyptians who have a dispute with Ethiopia over water rights and access because they're both dependent on the Nile river and the Ethiopians.
- [55:05]
B
Wait, I thought Trump ended that war.
- [55:06]
A
Yeah, right, that war, that's all gone now. So then Egypt cut a deal with the Somalis. So yeah, it's just sort of like exacerbating regional tensions. I'm sure this won't help. Interesting story though, and one we'll keep watching. Speaking of which, another interesting election that we covered earlier this month was Colombia's election. There were the first round results in May. That set led to a runoff with a progressive candidate, Yvonne Cepeda, and the right wing candidate, Abelardo de la Sprea, also known as the Tiger. So that runoff ended this past weekend. The results are now in. So the Tiger, the right wing candidate, he narrowly won. The Guardian reported he got 12.96 million votes, which is about 90, sorry, 49.66% of the votes vote compared to Cepeda's 48.7% of the vote. It's worth noting that the margin this time was even smaller than in the first round. De la Esprea will take over with a minority in Congress in a very divided country. Just for funsies, Ben, here's Trump commenting on the election and, of course, making it all about himself. Let's watch.
- [56:14]
B
Endorsed him. He was in 10th place.
- [56:15]
C
I endorsed him.
- [56:16]
B
But he won the election.
- [56:17]
C
Yeah.
- [56:19]
B
No different than this country you had a phone conversation with.
- [56:23]
A
He called me last night and he
- [56:24]
B
thanked me for the endorsement.
- [56:26]
C
He won.
- [56:26]
A
He won the election. It wasn't, he wasn't anticipated to win, but he won and he won handily. It's just an honor. He was just a good man.
- [56:36]
B
I'd watch him a little bit, speak, and he always spent. You know, when people like me, I like them. It's very simple. It's a very simple formula, and I like them.
- [56:45]
A
He said really nice things about me and the job we've done in the
- [56:48]
B
United States and very, very powerful.
- [56:53]
A
And he won an election in Colombia
- [56:55]
B
that I don't know. Some people were surprised.
- [56:58]
A
Simple formula. And then again, just for fun, here's De Las Brie's workout routine that he posted on Instagram. Not to be a total bro, but if you're going to call yourself the tiger and wear gloves in your home gym, you got to be putting up more than, like, 30s when you're doing bench. Ben it seems like we're going to see a return to a militarized war on drugs. More coordination with the US probably with Pete Hegseth and just the US Military bombing, suspected drug traffickers. We'll probably see the construction of mega prisons like El Salvador did. There's all these lawsuits against the press from the tiger. What do you think about these results and kind of what it says about the future of the US Relationship with Colombia in terms of. Of Colombia's role in the region?
- [58:04]
B
I don't feel good about it. I mean, first of all, we should say this is not about Trump. I mean, it's not like they're voting for Trump. I think if one of the things that is clear is in Colombia, as we've seen in other countries, Ecuador, you know, El Salvador, previously, there are real concerns about security. You know, there's a sense of insecurity. It's, it's, it's too violent. And people are just kind of looking for something that feels a little more secure in that manner. And also, you know, there's a natural, there's a left, right swing that tends to happen in Colombia. I think the things that concern me are like, first of all, the closeness of this result. And Petro, the outgoing president, kind of alleged voter fraud and accused the US
- [58:43]
A
And Israel of basically rigging votes, the
- [58:45]
B
US And Israel of election interference without any we should say without any evidence, really. But look, like, I don't think the tiger, like people should know this guy is not just a normal like right wing politician. Like he has promised to build like mega prisons in the jungle, you know, like we're looking at in El Salvador. Who knows what may be deporting people down there from the United States and we may be locking up people en masse like they did in El Salvador. That's not good. And this kind of validation of a right wing shift in Latin America is alarming because we've already seen in Bukele a guy changed the constitution to keep himself in power. And who knows how many of these right wing leaders end up being democratic in the long run. And so again, I truly don't. This is not just kind of because I don't like Trump. I don't think this cause of Trump. I think there's other factors behind this. But the reality is these guys are gonna be a block. They are gonna work with Trump. They are gonna work with either the US military or Erik Prince's security contracting type outfits to do things that probably, you know, call into question. Let's just say that the human rights is probably not gonna be top of mind for these guys. I think another election, this makes the Brazil election, which is later this year, that much more important. Because if Lula, the incumbent president, loses and the right wing takes over in Brazil too, man, it's gonna be lonely down there for center lefts and progressive and socialist politicians. So, you know, it bears watching. But I don't feel great about the result.
- [60:19]
A
Brazil's election's coming up in October. Right now we got Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, Guatemala with left wing governments in the region. The rest are shifting to the right. Yeah, the tiger seems like a charming guy on a political talk show. He told a female journalist to look at a picture of him in sweatpants to understand why so many women are voting for him. So that's cool. But yeah, wonderful, wonderful folks that Trump is endorsing. Finally. Ben, I am fully addicted to watching the World Cup. The England game is on. I think probably as we speak. It might be over by now.
- [60:49]
B
Yeah, right now they're playing right now.
- [60:50]
A
Yeah, they're probably screaming in the streets. I'm already sad about it ending. I'd love to talk about it with you for a minute. First of all, the US Team is awesome. The Paraguay game was incredible. Got to go to that. It was the best experience ever. And then we looked awesome in the first half against Australia. We're not Going to talk about the second half because, you know, whatever, we won. Then there's like the underdog stories. Cape Verde, Cabo Verde, that's been incredible. It's a tiny island nation. It's like 350 miles off the western coast of Africa. It's like half a million people. One of the smallest countries to compete in the World Cup. They battled Spain to a draw. Spain is supposed to be one of the best teams in the entire tournament. Then they battled Uruguay to a draw this past Sunday. Check out this BBC clip. These guys went live right as Cape Verde scored their first goal. Check those out.
- [61:37]
B
What's your appraisal of the way the Cape Verde team has been playing so far?
- [61:41]
C
I personally think so far Cabo Verde has been playing great. He's been matching Uruguay's pressure. The king has broken.
- [61:55]
B
He has made history tonight, scoring a live goal here.
- [61:59]
A
And you can see
- [62:03]
B
we pass it to the next phase. We are going to the next phase.
- [62:07]
A
I love that so much. I love those. They had a 40 year old goalie who shut out Spain and then went from 50,000 to 15 million Instagram followers. There was a player who got recruited via LinkedIn DM and he like literally thought it was spam from the coach. I don't know what else. What other sort of like actual playing and game narratives are you enjoying? Before we get to the kind of fan video stuff that's so much fun,
- [62:28]
B
I do like the fact that there's this combination which you won in every World cup of like some of the good teams are just playing extraordinary soccer. Football. Right. I mean, to watch Lionel Messi score five goals in the first two games is unbelievable for Argentina.
- [62:43]
A
Mbappe's playing amazing. Yep.
- [62:44]
B
Yeah, Mbappe's playing like lights out. France looks great. The US obviously looks like it's knocking on the door of not maybe the first tier, but like right there.
- [62:54]
A
Right.
- [62:55]
B
And so there's just some excellent, like, you know, soccer being played, Football being played. But then, yeah, these underdog stories. To see Cape Verde, to see, you know, even the Iranians, like the save that that Iranian goalie made. Did you see this, Tommy?
- [63:11]
A
Yeah.
- [63:11]
B
To kind of preserve a draw. That was like nuts. I saw the Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo draw Portugal, which is winning handily today in the same way. Yeah. The African soccer teams are overperforming. We'll see how Ghana does against England today. And I just kind of love all of those underdog stories. Again, in addition to the U.S. another host. Mexico looks pretty good too. So it's Good to see the host countries in Canada got to win, which I don't think they had done before. So. So that's good. So you can't. I love if it's just the favorites over performing. That's kind of boring. I love this combination of like there's some good teams playing really well and then there's some people coming out of nowhere and then there are these host countries doing well. Like it's a great mix of different storylines.
- [64:00]
A
Yeah, it really is. I mean, Kurosaw is another one who played Uruguay to a draw. I also love, I just like love like the scenes of the communities watching back home. Like the Jordanians are watching games in this like 5,000 year old, you know, kind of Roman era theater. It's in incredible. I don't know if you saw the Iranians, the note they left. They left a note in the locker room in la. They said, we came to Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor, and leave with dignity. Thank you, Los Angeles for your hospitality and thank you to every Iranian who gave their heart, voice and soul for Iran throughout these 180 minutes. May peace, respect and friendship prevail among all nations. Really nice note. Also probably not without political risk for them when they get home. Right. You can imagine some IRGC goon being like, why'd you do that? What did that mean? Egypt got its first win. Their star player, Mo Salah was just like drinking in the streets with random people, I think up in Canada. So that was awesome. But Ben, I think what has captured all of our hearts, especially in the Pod Save the World slack, are the videos of fans losing their minds.
- [64:59]
B
I could watch this all day.
- [65:00]
A
Literally all day. I will retweet anything you send me. I'm a sucker for all of it. And then it's like the culture is blending all across North America. Like you said. Here's a little video compilation that we're going to watch and then I'll just quickly tick through what we saw and we can talk about it. And here they are ready for today's game against the Rangers. Just moments ago, they marched from ball and chain throughout Little Havana to take over Lone Depot park for today's match.
- [65:36]
B
Sweet.
- [65:45]
A
So good. So good. All right, so for those of you listening not watching, first of all, subscribe to Pod Save the world on YouTube. But also, we had a bunch of Norway fans rowing in Times Square. They've been rowing everywhere. We had a CBS report about the Tartan Army. Those are Scotland fans. They were taken over Miami. They went to a Marlins Game. They marched through Little Havana. People in Boston were, like, genuinely sad to see them go. Ben, I don't know if you saw the open letter in the Boston Globe.
- [66:33]
B
I saw everything.
- [66:34]
A
The mayor was commenting on it. Like, people were, like, sad that they were leaving. There was one dude who just refused to leave. He said, no, I'm going to stay here for longer. English fans were singing Sweet Carolina at a rodeo in Texas. There's a Scottish guy in a kilt playing the bagpipes while rollerblading in Miami. That is awesome. It was Becky fans riding to the stadium in Houston on horseback in full guard. And then again, the Scotland fans singing and chanting on a flight from Boston to Miami. Ben, is the World cup the greatest soft power tool in the history of diplomacy?
- [67:05]
B
Yeah, but it's a soft power tool
- [67:07]
A
for everybody, for humanity.
- [67:08]
B
Every country is winning for humanity. I mean, let me just go through. I mean, I'm still a sucker, by the way, for the Lawrence, Kansas embrace of the Algerian team. Right. I think, Tommy, that I, my Knicks, New York sports fan heart has been melted by the Boston Tartan army romance. And I want to suggest that the Red Sox, like, play a baseball game in Scotland.
- [67:30]
A
Oh, absolutely.
- [67:30]
B
We have to keep this, yeah, we have to keep this going because I'm so mad that there's not going to be more content of, like, Scott's, like, drinking with everybody in Boston and, like, befriending guys with Airbnbs and, you know, marching around with bagpipes.
- [67:44]
A
If Bostonians go to Scotland, we're going to bitch about the wifi speeds and the plugs being different. You know what I mean? That's my fear.
- [67:52]
B
My alma mater, Rice University, like, there was like 15,000 Dutch fans or something like that in orange, like, marching off the campus. Like, I said something totally bonkers like that. I got videos of, like, Congolese making out with Mexicans. Like, like, it's just wonderful. Like, like, like, I, I, I can't say enough how much, like, you just see the best in every country in the way in which they root or the way in which they connect across cultures in the host nations. I have nothing bad to say about anybody. Which is the way you would like the world to be.
- [68:24]
A
Yeah. Apparently one of the commentators on the England Ghana broadcast said, as we know, the English historically struggle in Massachusetts. That's a great line. That's a gray line from a clever dude.
- [68:37]
B
Yeah.
- [68:38]
A
I love every minute of this. I want it to never end. I'm going to watch all the games and maybe, you know, when we wrap the this. Maybe we can catch the end of the England game. So we'll go do that. All right. That's the end for Ben and I's portion of the show. But do not miss Ben's interview with Ran AUB about some really important political dynamics happening right now in India. So stick around for that after the break. POD Save the World is brought to you by bilt. Whether you're renting or paying a mortgage, one of your biggest monthly expenses should be working harder for you. That's where built comes in. BILT is the membership for where you live that rewards you with points on every housing payment wherever you live. BILT started out rewarding members on their rent. Now, as of 2026, BILT members can also earn points on mortgage payments wherever they live. Every housing payment earns you points. You can redeem with top travel partners like United and Hyatt or use your points towards Lyft rides, Amazon purchases and much, much more. BILT has a ton of great options for where you can redeem your points. You can do fitness classes. There's a travel portal you just go to Amazon.com, there's Lyft rides. You can get gift cards at hundreds of brands. There's a ton of ton of options you can use your points and BILT members also get access to a neighborhood concierge. It can make restaurant reservations, book fitness classes and find new local spots, all while being rewarded at more than 45,000 merchant partners. It's like having a personal assistant baked into where you live. It's simple. Being a renter and now owning a home is better. With BILT. Join the membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com world that's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com world make sure to use our URLs. They know we sent you.
- [70:13]
C
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- [70:49]
B
I am very pleased to be joined once again on Podsay the World. It's been too long. Rana Ayeb is an Indian journalist and author. She's an opinion Column for the Washington Post. She's the author of the classic book Gujarat Files, Anatomy of a Cover Up. She's on substack. Everybody should check her substack out. Rana, thanks so much for joining us.
- [71:07]
C
Thank you so much, Ben.
- [71:08]
B
We haven't talked in a bit. I mean, last time we talked was after the general elections in India when Narendra Modi and his BJP party won once again. Since then, a lot of things have happened. We've had further elections in India recently. We've had this war in Iran and we also have the cockroach movement that has exploded in India. I wanted to start by asking you to tell our audience that may not be familiar with it, about that movement, how it started, what it's about and what it's becoming.
- [71:38]
C
Well, Ben, a lot has happened since Modi's last general election. He won the regional election in India. Of course, now elections in India are no longer a level playing field, which is probably. It's Modi's. Modi's government and Modi's. Modi has used central agencies to literally co opt almost every political opposition in this country. But the Cockroach Janta party has come in from the space of void in the sense that. So it started with the Chief justice of India. He made an off the cuff remark in the court about the unemployed youth in India. He compared them to cockroaches. He said they are like cockroaches festering everywhere. And you know, they are filing, they're becoming activists. They're filing applications in court. They're wasting the time of the court. So there is already a resentment in this country by a huge section of people who are dealing with poverty and unemployment. Instead of taking that as a slur, they turned it into a satire. You know, so they started, it started as an Instagram page saying we the cockroaches, the Cockroach Janta party. And it said that we are a bunch of lazy people. And you know, it was more like a satire. Like, you know, we are the cockroaches. Everybody was. But what was shocking is, and probably it was, you know, it reflected about, it was a reflection about the disenchantment that Indian, Indian youth is facing right now with the government that within about seven days there were 22 million followers on Instagram. Right? Much more than Narendra Modi or the ruling party of India or the opposition party of India. And it was organic. None of these people came from a political backroom or an organized political party. It started off as an Internet movement. It was very, very organic. And before we knew it was the talk of the town. These people suddenly had an agenda, five point agenda about clearing up the education system, clearing up corruption in India, clearing up position. I mean the hierarchy in India and Modi, I mean Modi does not love activism and it's a bad word for him. You know, every time there's a students movement he always calls it a Soros back movement. And they were quick to jump on this. They immediately banned the Twitter account, the Instagram account, citing national security, saying that the Cockroach Janta party was fronted by elements from across the border. In fact BJP leaders, Modi's bjp, their leaders said that a lot of their followers are from Pakistan. So the Cockroach Janta party also showed its list of followers which are all Indian. So I feel the Kakurt Janta party and the meme of the cockroach has resonated quite a bit with the average Indian which has been feeling let down and unseen and with this movement of it is trying to be seen by India and by the elite in India, by the political powers. And I think it has made a splash in the Indian political movement and rightly so. The Indian, the BJP is worried about it and its existence.
- [74:45]
B
Yeah, I mean obviously India is a massively different scale. But you know, we've been following over the last couple of years these movements in Nepal and Bangladesh that have rocked and toppled governments actually. And I don't think that's necessarily going to happen in India, but that's right in the neighborhood. And I'm curious how you think about what is similar between this movement and the movements we've seen in South Asia. And obviously what is different in the sense that this is probably not going to result in the kind of overturning of governance like we saw in those countries. But where do you think it might lead going forward?
- [75:24]
C
So when the Kakur Janta party gained popularity on social media and everybody thought this was our Gen Z protest that changed government in Nepal and in Bangladesh and in Sri Lanka, everybody thought this was our moment where the Gen Z takes over. And many of the followers do believe that it is their moment in the sun. The Gen Z is trying to assert itself. But when the leaders of the Cockroach Junta party were posed this question, they said, said and they said they were far too mature to indulge in any arson or any, you know, any, any activity that, that aims to kind of disturb the atmosphere of peace in that country. So they were trying to be very, very careful to not position themselves at AS and compare themselves to the outfits in Pakistan and other countries in South Asia because they knew that. I mean, they knew that any such statement would be used by the government of India to quell the protest and to silence them. Because I think the moment when something like this happened in Pakistan and Sri Lanka and Nepal, I think the first thing that the Indian establishment said, that you not allow something like this to happen in India because activism in India has become a bad word. So I think the cockroach and the party has been playing it very, very. It's been walking a delicate tightrope, trying hard to not compare itself with the movement in South Asia. And the second thing is, I think right now this movement is largely on social media when they, right now they're protesting on the streets. But the numbers, I mean, of course it's the Indian summer, peak Indian summer, but still the numbers are not quite surging as much as one expected it to see. It has made a splash, but it does not have the same intensity of the protest in South Asia. Having said that, it's just a beginning, right? It is, it is not a political movement. It does not have the finances to sustain something like this. It is right now battling a government and also battling for its own survival right now because the government is trying to ban its very existence. So right now I think it's a very, it's a very, very slow process where the popularity has come down to an extent where people, people are like, what exactly will they achieve this it has shown promise, but people are being very, very careful because Kakur Janta party has not taken an ideological position yet. So a lot of the critics, especially in the left liberal circles, are expecting it to take a position on the majoritarianism of the Modi government as opposed to the cockroach and the party saying we are going to restrict ourselves to just education and unemployment. So I think there is a certain opposition to the CJP, as it's called, but I think it will reveal itself in months and till the next general election.
- [78:14]
B
Yeah, I want to come back to the opposition, but I want to talk about Narendra Modi and his foreign policy and how it's playing at home. And there are two leaders I'm going to ask you about. Let's start with Trump. So, you know, Modi really embraced Trump in his first term and kind of endorsed him when he ran for reelection. Was clearly selling that. These are like minded, kind of nationalist, strongman types just watching from afar. A lot of things. Donald Trump's done have hurt India since he came back into power. You know, we saw terrorists put on India. We saw Trump embrace Pakistan, basically siding almost with Pakistan when there was the conflict, bragging about ending the war and demanding that Modi nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize. We saw the war in Iran. Obviously, part of Trump's signature foreign policy effort has had a really crippling effect on India given the amount of energy that it gets through the Strait of Hormuz. Is there any political blowback that Modi's face, he put all these chips on Trump and it feels like the second Trump term has been not only not good for Modi, but kind of embarrassing at times for Modi. How do people in India look at that?
- [79:33]
C
It is extremely embarrassing because the same Modi fanboys who were like worshiping Trump and creating these statues of Trump are suddenly now abusing him in India and they don't know how to reconcile this to that. Modi. Modi put Trump on a pedestal. He was his best friend. He campaigned for Trump in the US and did a huge rally for Trump in India. And now Trump is somehow, you know, he has this bipolar relationship with Modi. On some days he's going to comment on Modi's complexion and his personality and odd days he's going to call India a country of, you know, using racist slurs against India. I think where India is concerned, I think it has revealed India's absolutely bizarre foreign policy because we do not seem to have a foreign policy. And I think Trump has really exposed the rot within. When US and Israel waged a war on Iran, Prime Minister Modi was in Israel. He was on a three day trip with Bibi Netanyahu and they were both posing for pictures and they were doing these augs and, and whether Netanyahu told him about the war, the impending war, or did not, in both the situations, Modi looked, I mean, it was. He lost face because you are visiting Israel and suddenly the next day Israel bombs Iran and then India, which has been a long standing ally of Iran, does not say a single statement condemning the murder of Ayatollah Khamenei. And then of course, because when the US torpedoed the ship, Iris Dana, there was not a single statement from the Indian Prime Minister or even at the killing of the three naval officers by,
- [81:18]
B
and I should just add for people, this is a ship that had been in India invited by the Indian government
- [81:23]
A
for
- [81:26]
B
the invitation of many different countries for military demonstrations. And it gets sunk and all the people on board get killed. You know, which was a huge embarrassment, didn't you? But anyway, I just wanted to let people know.
- [81:37]
C
And, you know, India's Foreign Minister, Jaishankar, or India's prime minister, I mean, that ship was India's guest, and they've left India and has killed Indians and Pakistanis and Sri Lankans. And you cannot bring yourself to condemn that action. You cannot bring yourself to condemn the action in which US Attacks an Indian naval ship which kills three Indians. And you know, in this meeting recently at the G7, when, when Modi and Trump were sitting, and Trump is congratulating Modi personally and said he's only going to have good relationship with India as long as Modi is the prime minister. And it felt like it was Modi's own image control as opposed to being. As opposed to negotiating with Trump as a country. It felt like it was more image building for Modi. So Modi's foreign policy is mostly optimized. Trump has berated India, saying that he was the one who got a ceasefire between India and Pakistan through the war last year. And not once Indian. Indian Foreign office has said off the record that Trump did not broker this deal. But Trump keeps on repeating this in every single press conference asking for a Nobel Peace Prize. But till today, Modi has not said a word about this. Modi has not issued a statement. So I feel like. And then, you know, and then you see him posing for a picture with Giorgia Meloni with a chocolate. Calling it chocolate diplomacy. I mean, I'm no fan of Giorgia Meloni, but when Trump said something about her begging for a selfie, at least you put out a statement saying, you know what? Neither does she nor Italy beg for a selfie. Where is India's selfie respect, right? So I feel like Indians are feeling the pinch. And a big section, a section of the Indian community and foreign policy officials are also feeling that if you do not stand for anything, right, if you are the democratic counterweight to China, if you believe you are, you know, the world's largest democracy, you need to stand for something. And if you do not stand for anything, then you will not. You will lose all the respect that you believe the world should. Modi calls himself the Vishwa Guru, the global leader. But where is this condemnation of what's happening in Iran? What's happening with. In Palestine? There's not been a single strong statement. And then you have Asim Munir, the Field Marshal of Pakistan and the Pakistani Prime Minister now, you know, which were always, you know, India always said that it had isolated Pakistan, you know, in the world. I don't think this looks like isolation at all. In fact, it feels like he has given Pakistan a new lease of life. Trump has given Pakistan a new lease of life. It has given it newfound legitimacy. So I feel like India stands as a big loser where foreign policy is concerned.
- [84:25]
B
Yeah, I've never seen actually Pakistan given the spotlight that Trump has put on it in this war you already anticipated. The second thing I was gonna ask you about was that trip to Israel with Prime Minister Netanyahu and this kind of full embrace of Israel before the war. But I do want to ask one more question about the war, which is I do want you to just describe. We've talked a bit about the shortages in India. You know, it's running low on fuel. We've seen reports about Indians having to ration cooking oil, about businesses and restaurants having to shut down, prices going up. What is the effect? Do ordinary Indians feel the pinch of this war? Or is this just something that shows up more in kind of economic metrics?
- [85:04]
C
I think there has been a huge economic repercussion. Prime Minister Modi has asked Indians to stop buying gold, stop traveling abroad, start working from home, stop flying, stop using air transport, carpool, stop using their public transport. So I feel like we are feeling the pinch. The price of domestic fuel has increased. The price of petrol, CNG diesel, has increased in India. And. And those who are feeling the pinch are the ones who are economically in the lower strata. So I feel like there is a great deal of resentment thanks to the war, which is why Modi's popularity is his 12th year in power. And I feel like for this very reason, Modi's popularity is not the same as it was, say, last year. So the war on Iran has had repercussions, and which is why Modi is trying to do a lot of this internal stuff, like stirring up anti Muslim sentiments in the country to kind of divert the attention from the real problem, which is a fuel crisis in India right now. Small restaurants are shutting down. Small business owners are shutting down their business because they cannot afford it. People are not taking the flights. The airline business has said that. One of the biggest airlines in India has said that it plans to shut. It will shut down if Modi. If the Modi government does not. Not take enough steps. So I feel like we have had real repercussions of the war. And instead of giving us a solution or trying to kind of play a role in allaying the fears of this, of the country, what you see Is Modi going on these foreign trips and, you know, and taking selfies with international leaders. And I think that has angered a big section of the people, which is why something like a cockroach junta party, which has happened at just the right moment, has got the popularity that it did. Because it's not happening in a void. It is happening at a time when there is rising unemployment, when the war in Iran has led to consequences in India where people are losing their jobs, where poverty levels are increasing every day, where people in India cannot get by. So I feel like the outfits like the Kaku Janta party are a result of this. This for a big reason. The war on Iran and the crisis that is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.
- [87:26]
B
So, Rana, that is so helpful in helping us understand what's going on in the cockroach movement and Indian foreign policy. Modi's standing, just to end here, what should we be looking for in terms of where the political opposition goes in the months ahead? How should we be thinking about things? Because obviously Modi's still very entrenched in power. What are the signs that this might lead to actual more strong opposition? Or maybe Modi can recover, as he has done multiple times.
- [87:53]
C
Well, at this point of time, Ben, the Indian opposition is exactly the same where it was a couple of months ago, because we have had recent local elections for which Trump also congratulated Modi, in which Modi had a sweeping victory. But that election happened in an atmosphere that it was not a level playing field. Modi has poached all the opposition leaders on his side, where he has used central agencies to kind of. To kind of level charges and level cases and get them on their side. The election system has not been the same. A lot of voters have been disenfranchised, disenfranchised in India. So, yes, a cockroachanta party can make a difference. But when you have a country of 1.4 billion people and you still have big players like the Congress Party and other regional parties who are being systematically decimal using central agencies and using the election commission of India, which seems to be compromised, I think Modi can even look for a third term in power because things are very much skewed in favor of Modi right now. But one can have some. I would really wait and watch what the corporate Janta Party is capable of, because the resentment of the ground also is real. Modi can win over the. And kind of snatch away the powers of the opposition party, but he will really have to deal with the resentment on the ground. So one has to wait and watch what happens with the Coco Genta party right now.
- [89:11]
B
No, that's a great point. I mean, you know, he can tighten his grip, but actually that might make the bottom up opposition, you know, that much more intense as we've seen in neighboring countries. Well, a lot. Ronna, thanks so much for joining us. Everybody should follow you. Everybody I do, on social media, on substack, on your Washington Post. You're such a clear voice on all these issues. So thanks for helping us understand what's been going on.
- [89:35]
C
Thank you so much, Ben. Pleasure as always.
- [89:37]
A
Thanks to Ron Ayoub for doing the show. Thanks to you, Ben, for dialing in from it's pretty late over there in London and see you in person next week. Pod Save the World is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Ilona Minkowski, Michael Goldsmith and Ninisha Banerjee. Our team includes Matt Degro, Ben Hethcote, Jordan Kanter, Kenny Moffitt, David Towles and Ryan Young. Staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.