Trump Goes from Obliteration to Negotiation on Iran - Pod Save the World

Pod Save the World — “Trump Goes from Obliteration to Negotiation on Iran” (March 25, 2026)
Hosts: Tommy Vietor & Ben Rhodes
Guest Interview: Edward Fishman (Director, Center for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes analyze an astonishing 48-hour turnaround in President Trump’s Iran policy: from threatening war crimes and obliterating Iran’s infrastructure, to suddenly announcing that “productive” negotiations were underway and a war-ending deal was close. They break down the real motives behind Trump’s actions, the international ripple effects, the market implications, and the immense challenges to any diplomatic resolution. The episode also touches on the broader regional consequences, market manipulation concerns, Europe’s right-wing political movements, and a look at vulnerabilities in today's interconnected global economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Great Moments in Oval Office History: The Pearl Harbor Gaffe

(03:06) Tommy and Ben debut a segment by recalling a cringeworthy moment:
- Quote:
  - Tommy (03:25): “Is World War II a sensitive subject in Japan?”
  - Ben (03:36): “I cannot think of a more cringe moment... he couldn’t even be subtle. Who knows more about secrecy than Japan? There was someone, like, groaned.”
Reflection on the President’s improvisational, sometimes offensive approach to foreign affairs.
Commentary on the low bar for diplomatic “success.”

2. Trump’s Iran Policy: From ‘Obliteration’ to ‘Negotiation’

(08:15) Recap of Trump’s 180-degree policy shift over 48 hours.
Saturday: Trump publicly threatens to obliterate Iranian power infrastructure (a war crime).
- Quote:
  - Tommy (08:15): “If Iran doesn't fully open...the Strait of Hormuz...we will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first.”
Sunday-Iranian Response: Iranian Parliament Speaker threatens attacks on regional infrastructure.
Monday: Just ahead of his self-imposed deadline, Trump grants a five-day reprieve, claims “productive conversations” with Iran, and alludes to a near peace deal.
Real-time confusion and skepticism from both sides.
Trump Press Comments:
- Quote:
  - Trump (09:29): “They called. I didn’t call. They want to make a deal...if it goes well, we’re gonna end up settling this. Otherwise, we’ll keep bombing our little hearts out.”

3. The Real Forces Behind Trump’s Policy Flip

(11:08) Ben’s analysis: Market panic and Gulf states’ alarm, not real negotiation, drove Trump’s climbdown.
- Gulf countries’ energy infrastructure was at risk if escalation continued.
- Oil prices and markets reacted strongly, pressuring Trump to retreat.
Suggestion of market manipulation: $580 million in oil futures traded minutes before Trump’s “negotiation” post.
- Tommy (16:03): “...someone made a lot of money.”
- Ben (16:03): “I can't think of anything more disgusting than somebody profiting off trading off a war...Trump is turning the dial on oil prices.”
(17:40) Tommy: Echoes the pattern from trade wars and tariffs — “Trump always chickens out.”

4. Is There Any Real Diplomacy?

(13:33) Ben and Tommy agree: There’s little evidence of US-Iran direct negotiations; intermediaries like Qatar, Oman, Egypt involved; Iran denies talks.
Iran’s Speaker Galiboff:
- Quote:
  - (15:38): “No negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped.”
Multinational efforts (Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan) reportedly seeking an “off-ramp.”

5. Why a Real Deal Is So Hard

(24:46) Tommy lays out Iran’s mistrust after multiple betrayals (JCPOA withdrawal, bombing during “productive” talks).
Iran has new leverage: ability to inflict global pain and chaos.
List of Iran’s maximalist demands: regional ceasefires, US base closures, reparations, sanctions relief, nuclear rights, “toll road” for Strait of Hormuz traffic.
(25:05) Ben: “Everything the Iranians have done has suggested...this war has made the regime much more radical...they see diplomacy with Trump as something they can’t trust.”

6. Regional Power Politics & Military Deployments

Gulf allies (UAE, Saudi Arabia) urge Trump to “finish the job,” adding complexity to US calculations.
(36:17) Significant US military assets — Marines, amphibious ships, airborne units — heading to the region, suggesting real escalation is still a risk.
Ben (37:50): “There is a methodical deployment...that could only have the purpose of supporting a ground operation in Iran...I really hope this doesn’t go forward.”

7. Iran’s Missile Capabilities & Escalations

(41:35) Discussion of Iran's attempted missile strike against Diego Garcia, showing unexpectedly extended range and adaptation under fire.
Ben (41:35): “They’re trying to make it feel like the reach of their weaponry puts at risk all US military facilities...they’re innovating on the fly.”

8. Lebanon Conflict Escalates

(44:12) Israel outlines plans to occupy parts of southern Lebanon, displacing a fifth of the nation’s population.
IDF bombing bridges, furthering humanitarian crisis and cutting off civilians.
Ben (47:31): “If the enemy is strong, it’s a reason to go to war with them; if the enemy is weak, it’s a reason to go to war with them.”
Israeli objectives and US media portrayal questioned: “Buffer zone” or de facto annexation?

9. Europe’s Far Right Under Pressure

(50:07) Signs of far-right parties losing momentum as Trump becomes less popular and his foreign policy disasters become clear in Europe.
Notable quote (Danish MP):
- “Let me put it in words you might understand, Mr. Trump: fuck off.”
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni suffers defeat in referendum; young voters, progressives re-energized.
Ben (56:33): “Trump’s recklessness...is not helping these far-right parties...people can see this is what far right leadership looks like. I don’t know if I want that.”

10. Security & OPSEC Fails: Strava’s Military Dangers

(61:13) A French sailor jogs on a nuclear aircraft carrier, logs run on public Strava, revealing sensitive location; echoes past OPSEC leaks via fitness apps.
Ben: “We need to have an encrypted Strava app or something.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Market Manipulation/War Profiteering:
- Ben (16:03): “I can't think of anything more disgusting than somebody profiting off trading off a war. Because Donald Trump is, like, turning the dial on oil prices up and down with his, you know, false claims about negotiations.”
On Trump’s Credibility:
- Ben (11:08): “It’s a sad state of affairs that I believe the Iranians to be more credible than Trump.”
On Sanctions Relief Hypocrisy:
- Ben (33:02): “This is $14 billion. This is... leaps and bounds more than the $400 million [we gave Iran for the JCPOA]. It is in the middle of a war... every single one of those fucking people support this idiocy. Support this war.”
On the Absurdity of Trump’s Negotiators:
- Tommy (29:47): “Golubov actually is a credible messenger... but Trump is probably kneecapping the guy by talking about him all the time. It seems like the worst strategy.”
On Information Security:
- Ben (63:45): “These apps are all...ways to penetrate apps and to communicate, to locate, to disparage...It’s a dystopia we live in.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

Pearl Harbor Gaffe/Oval Office Segment: 03:06–04:17
Explaining Trump’s Iran Flip: 08:15–13:29
Market Manipulation/Trading Analysis: 15:38–17:51
Regional Diplomatic Reality: 13:33–18:11
Iran Demands & Negotiation Obstacles: 24:46–27:25
US Military Deployments to the Gulf: 36:17–39:28
Iran’s Missile Strike on Diego Garcia: 41:35–44:12
Lebanon Crisis Coverage: 44:12–50:07
European Far Right Analysis: 50:07–60:18
Strava/OPSEC Segment: 61:13–64:44

Edward Fishman Interview: Economic Costs of the Iran War

(67:45–84:36)

Key Takeaways

Strait of Hormuz Closure: Greatest global energy threat in history; about 20% of oil and LNG flows disrupted.
- Edward Fishman (68:15): “We're dealing with a monumental shock to the global energy system, and there’s really not an end in sight so far.”
Lasting Damage: Even if the war ended tomorrow, it would take years for Qatar, Iraq, and other Gulf states to restore full capacity.
Sanctions Relief: Trump administration’s $14B sanctions waiver for Iran is bigger than what was conceded for the nuclear deal — sets dangerous precedent.
Developing World Suffering: Gasoline, electricity, and fertilizer rationing in Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, Laos, and beyond; risk of famines if this drags on.
Economic ‘Choke Points’: Iran and China’s ability to shut down vital resources (oil, gas, microchips, rare earth minerals) exposes US economic vulnerabilities.
- Fishman (84:20): “We need to wake up and start competing with China in these industries of the future.”

Tone & Style

The hosts blend sharp analysis, dark humor, and blunt criticism, maintaining a conversational, accessible tone while delivering deep policy insight. They lambaste the Trump administration’s chaotic and self-interested foreign policy, expressing genuine alarm over both the human costs and the global instability the war has produced.

Summary

Trump’s Iran reversal was driven by market panic and regional political pressure, not genuine diplomatic progress.
Market manipulation and profiteering off war create deep ethical and legal concerns.
Any peace deal is hampered by profound mistrust, Iran’s newfound leverage, and maximalist demands.
Risks of escalation remain high; US military deployments signal preparation for direct intervention.
Regional warfare and crises (Lebanon, the Gulf, Israel, and Iran) are compounding into a broader humanitarian and geopolitical disaster.
Trump’s recklessness is damaging the far right’s appeal in Europe.
Globalization has created “choke points” ripe for economic warfare, leaving the US and world economy deeply vulnerable.

This summary captures all crucial topics and insights, providing both a narrative and reference points for listeners seeking substance, memorable moments, and context—without the noise of sponsorships or fillers.