Pod Save the World: "Trump’s National Security Team Takes Shape"
Release Date: November 13, 2024
Hosts: Tommy Vietor & Ben Rhodes

1. Introduction

In this gripping episode of Pod Save the World, hosts Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes delve deep into the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, exploring how Donald Trump's victory reshapes America’s national security apparatus and its broader foreign policy landscape. Skipping past the initial advertisements, the conversation kicks off at [01:12], setting the stage for a comprehensive analysis of the election’s implications on both domestic and international fronts.

2. Election Results and Their Foreign Policy Impact

a. Reaction to the 2024 Election Results

Tommy and Ben express a mix of sadness and anger over the election outcome, reflecting on the emotional toll it has taken on Democratic circles and supporters. Ben shares a personal anecdote about supporting a female president and the heartbreak of seeing Kamala Harris fall short, stating at [01:32], “I remember... watching with my kids... was not a pleasant experience.”

b. Analysis of Key Swing States: Michigan

A critical focus is placed on Michigan, a pivotal swing state where Trump’s success is attributed to significant shifts in Wayne County. According to an analysis by the New York Times, Kamala Harris lost approximately 80,000 votes in Michigan, with a notable decline in support among Arab American populations in areas like Dearborn. Tommy highlights that “Gaza was clearly a huge part of the shift in Michigan” ([05:03]), suggesting foreign policy issues played a crucial role in voter behavior.

c. Voter Shifts Among Arab American and Jewish Voters

The hosts discuss the alienation of both Arab American and Jewish voters. Ben notes, “[...] it made Democrats look like hypocrites...” ([15:18]), pointing out that the administration’s policies towards Gaza and Israel have strained relationships with these communities, undermining Democratic support among these key voter groups.

d. Decline in Incumbent Support Globally

Tommy places the U.S. election results in a global context, noting that it’s the first time since World War II that every governing party in developed countries lost vote share. This trend is attributed to lingering anger from the pandemic, inflation, and economic inequality, as Ben adds, “The anti-incumbency mood... has been a negative for any governing party” ([07:53]).

3. Trump’s National Security Team Appointments

a. Overview of Key Appointments

Following the election, Trump’s appointments to pivotal national security roles signal a hawkish and loyalist tilt in foreign policy:

• Elise Stefanik as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
• Mike Waltz, a retired Green Beret and National Security Adviser.
• Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
• Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security.
• Mike Huckabee as U.S. Ambassador to Israel.

b. Analysis of Backgrounds and Policy Directions

Ben articulates concerns about the new team’s alignment with Trump’s aggressive foreign policy goals. For instance, Marco Rubio, labeled a "neocon and hawk," is expected to push hardline policies against China and Iran ([24:31]). Kristi Noem’s appointment signals a grim outlook for immigration policy, given her past support for stringent measures like the Muslim ban and family separation ([46:41]).

At [25:13], Ben summarizes, “All of these people have repositioned themselves as first and foremost Trump loyalists. They’re going to do what he says.”

c. Concerns Over Policy Implications

The team’s composition spells trouble for various international issues:

• Ukraine and Russia: Ben warns that Rubio’s stance could lead to decreased support for Ukraine, potentially empowering Putin.
• China: Both Rubio and Waltz harbor hawkish views, indicating heightened tensions and potential economic confrontations.
• Israel and Gaza: Appointments like Mike Huckabee suggest unwavering support for Israel’s hardline positions, exacerbating tensions in Gaza and the West Bank.

d. Potential Impact on U.S. Foreign Policy and International Relations

Ben emphasizes the pessimistic outlook, stating, “These are all people who've sold their souls and that's why they're getting these appointments” ([27:50]). The appointment of figures like Elise Stefanik and Kristi Noem is expected to lead to aggressive cuts in aid to international organizations and a crackdown on immigration, respectively ([29:27], [47:45]).

4. Implications for Russia and Ukraine

a. Potential Policies Towards Russia

Ben critiques the Trump team’s approach to Russia, emphasizing the ineffectiveness of proposed energy sanctions. He argues that “there's not some magic wand that the Trump people can wave that's going to make these sanctions somehow bring the war to the end” ([37:11]).

b. Likelihood of Putin Working with Trump

The conversation explores the improbability of Putin cooperating meaningfully with Trump, given Russia’s aggressive stance. Ben posits that Putin will continue his offensive, stating, “he has the likelihood of the US Administration cutting the Ukrainians off” ([36:26]).

c. Ongoing Conflict and U.S. Support for Ukraine

Tommy expresses concern over the potential withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine, which could lead to further Russian aggression and instability in the region. “[…] this is going to hand Ukraine to Russia” ([41:19]).

5. Democratic Response and Recommendations

a. Party’s Strategies and Failures

In an illuminating interview with Senator Chris Murphy, the discussion pivots to the Democratic Party’s struggle with neoliberalism and alienating key voter bases. Murphy outlines how the party’s focus on incremental changes, such as tax credits and prescription drug pricing, fails to address deeper issues of power concentration and economic inequality.

b. Building a Bigger Tent and Economic Populism

Murphy advocates for a broader, more inclusive Democratic coalition centered around economic populism. He emphasizes the need to reconnect with disenfranchised communities by addressing economic injustices and redistributing power from elites. “[...] picking fights against corporate malfeasance and against people who are rigging the system” ([77:32]).

c. Reframing Foreign Policy

Murphy suggests that foreign policy should be framed around domestic economic issues, linking global strategies to improving American workers’ lives. “Our China policy is not about contesting China's influence in Southeast Asia... but ensuring China doesn't capture all the high-tech jobs in the U.S.” ([84:18]).

6. Other Concerns and Broader Implications

a. Influence of Elon Musk and Conflict of Interest

The hosts express apprehension over Elon Musk’s involvement in Trump’s administration, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Musk’s vast business dealings, especially with China. Ben questions, “Is there anything Congress can do... to address that?” ([90:05]).

b. Potential Corruption and Impact on Intelligence and Military

Concerns are raised about the integrity of intelligence agencies and the military under Trump’s appointments. Ben warns of possible “looting the power of the United States” for personal gain and the introduction of loyalty purges within the military ([52:01]).

c. Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy’s Global Role

The episode underscores a significant shift from the liberal international order to a more isolationist and transactional foreign policy under Trump, which could destabilize long-standing alliances and international institutions.

7. Conclusion: Overall Assessment and Outlook

Tommy and Ben conclude the episode on a somber note, recognizing the profound challenges ahead. Ben urges listeners to stay informed and vigilant, stating, “It's important to describe what is happening and to understand what is happening” ([86:26]). They emphasize the necessity for the Democratic Party to reinvent itself and for citizens to remain engaged in shaping a more equitable and effective foreign policy.

Despite the bleak outlook, Ben offers a glimmer of hope by encouraging listeners to stay informed and proactive in advocating for change, ensuring that the lessons from this election inform future strategies and policies.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Rhodes [07:53]: "The anti-incumbency mood... has been a negative for any governing party."
• Tommy Vietor [05:03]: "Gaza was clearly a huge part of the shift in Michigan."
• Ben Rhodes [15:18]: "It made Democrats look like hypocrites..."
• Ben Rhodes [37:11]: "...there's not some magic wand that the Trump people can wave that's going to make these sanctions somehow bring the war to the end."
• Sen. Chris Murphy [81:55]: "Neoliberalism has worked out really badly for the American people."
• Ben Rhodes [86:26]: "It's important to describe what is happening and to understand what is happening."

This episode paints a concerning picture of the future of U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, highlighting the potential for increased global instability, strained alliances, and internal political fractures. The hosts call for heightened awareness and strategic response from both political parties and the public to navigate the tumultuous landscape ahead.