Loading summary
Transcript67 lines
- [00:01]
A
At vrbo, we understand that even the best of plans sometimes need a little
- [00:06]
B
support, so we plan for the plot twists.
- [00:08]
A
Every booking is automatically backed by our VRBO Care guarantee, giving you confidence from the very start.
- [00:14]
B
Whenever you need help, it's ready before
- [00:16]
A
your stay, through the moments in between and after your trip.
- [00:20]
B
Because a great trip starts with peace
- [00:22]
A
of mind and maybe a good playlist. But we've got the peace of mind part covered.
- [00:28]
C
Foreign.
- [00:42]
B
Welcome back to Pod Save the World. This is a bonus episode to update you guys on the major developments in Donald Trump's insane regime change war of choice with Iran since we recorded on Saturday. So we're going to take through the latest operational details. We'll dig into Iran's surprising response that's regional. We'll play some clips from Trump and then Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who finally spoke today and covered the administration's bizarre messaging strategy and incoherence and policy incoherence as well. And then finally we'll talk about the Democratic Party's response so far, the good, the bad, and then really what we'd like to hear. We will record again on Tuesday for a Wednesday morning release per usual. And we'll use that episode, I think, to geek out on, you know, Iranian succession plans, maybe concerns about sectarian violence and civil war and much more. So if you have not yet, please subscribe to Pod Save the world on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast. Because, you know, as we said on Saturday, Ben, a lot of the coverage of this war so far has been absolutely horrendous. It is giving Me PTSD from 2003 and watching the Iraq war coverage. I don't know if you caught Pete Hegseth's press conference with Raisin Cain, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, but seeing him there take questions from like the new fake Pentagon press corps where was absolutely demoralizing.
- [01:55]
A
We got a little taste of what it's like to have a compliance state media with a Fox and Friends weekend anchor as your Secretary of Defense. Like the convergence of those threads was not very reassuring, Tommy.
- [02:09]
B
No, it was profoundly demoralizing. So again, please subscribe to Pod Save the world on YouTube wherever you get your podcast, because we are trying to do real coverage here. So we're recording at midday Pacific time on Monday. CENTCOM says that US Forces have destroyed more than a thousand targets so far, including Iranian ships, subs, IRGC command centers, missile sites. The Israelis have hit hundreds of targets as well, especially that first wave of regime change targets that included top Iranian political and military Officials, since we recorded Saturday, Ben, Iran has confirmed that the supreme Leader is dead. He was killed, I think, in an Israeli strike with intelligence provided by the US or, you know, that's what's been reported since. So this is just, this is a seismic event in Iranian history as this guy has been in charge since 1989. And it will now set off a succession process that will probably take a little while. It also seems like the president of Iran was incapacitated in strike to the point where he can't run the country anymore, as that authority has been delegated to somebody else. Four service members are confirmed dead. American service members, I believe all were in the army and were hit by an Iranian drone in Kuwait. Three American F15s were shot down over Kuwait as well, reportedly in a friendly fire incident. They were shot at by Kuwaiti air defenses. Thank God all six of them ejected safely. Trump in his various messaging opportunities. We'll get into that in a minute. I said the operation could last four more weeks or maybe five more weeks. So he refuses to put a specific timeline or goal behind that estimate. He's also refused to rule out putting US Boots on the ground in Iran. So that's something to look forward to. Could certainly imagine some sort of future US Or Israeli like commando operation to get Iran's nuclear materials, for example. Hezbollah is now involved. They're firing rockets at northern Israel. The Israelis are responding in kind. There have been some very scary incidents at U.S. embassies and consulates where those facilities have gotten attacked in places like Lebanon or other Muslim countries like Pakistan. Hundreds are dead in Iran. At least 10 people have been killed in Israel by Iranian missiles and drones. Iranian drones also killed three people in the uae, injured dozens more there. They killed one person in Bahrain, two in Iraq, one in Kuwait, and dozens in Lebanon. I assume the Lebanon casualties ban or a combination of Israeli and Iranian fire. A number of people have been wounded in Qatar and Oman as well. And by the way, those casualty stats were coming from a running tally by Al Jazeera. President Trump did not deliver a major address to the nation about Iran over the weekend. The White House did not book any senior officials on the Sunday talk shows. They just released these bizarre video messages from Trump. And then Trump, you know, sporadically took calls from reporters and offered sort of incoherent lines of messaging. Trump finally did an event where he spoke publicly today, as did Secretary Hegseth and Chairman Cain. We'll play all that for you in a minute. But this really has been like a case study in how not to communicate. So, Ben, we'll get into the Iranian mess response deeper in a minute, but any initial reactions from you to what you've seen since Saturday?
- [05:03]
A
I think the initial reaction is that all of our concerns about this war are playing out in the sense that there's a total lack of coherence from the US from what Trump's saying, what Hegseth is saying about what the objectives are. And there just seems to be a lot of momentum to keep doing stuff, that the Iranian response is chaotic but widespread. You know, it's like a machine gun being dropped on the floor, firing in all directions and that nobody knows where this is going, which is what happens when you decapitate a regime with no plan for what comes next. And that regime is much deeper and more heavily armed than say, the Venezuelan government was. So it's a very unsettling moment right now. Tommy?
- [05:46]
B
Yeah, the machine gun firing on the floor analogy is a perfect description of what Iran has been doing because they continue to target not just US Bases in the Middle east and Israel, but also these Gulf countries. On Monday, Iran attacked energy sites in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. And then over the weekend, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at the uae, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan. I think when we talked on Saturday, Ben, they had not fired at Oman yet, but now they have. And Iran even fired a drone at a British military base in Cyprus, although Britain, the UK is not involved in these operations. So the vast majority of these missiles and drones were intercepted by missile defense systems, but not all of them. A lot of the targets were civilian infrastructure like high rises and hotels. Again, that's led to a bunch of casualties, including in, in Iran, Ben. But it just seems like, again, it seems like the Iranian calculation here was shoot at all these Gulf countries, get them to pressure the US And Israel to stop the war. But like, time will tell, but this seems to have catastrophically backfired. As far as I can tell. Like countries that seemed initially wary of what the US and Israel were doing are now denouncing Iran. There's some sense that the Gulf countries that initially had barred the US from flying anti Iran missions out of their territory or through their airspace might be reconsidering those views. Maybe some of this has to do with Iran not having command and control anymore. There's not like centralized decision making. So you have some random group of commanders firing at Cyprus for no reason. But I do think, you know, the big question still remains, how long will Iran have the capacity to respond? Will they run out of ballistic missiles and launchers. And will they run out of them before the places they're targeting run out of interceptor missiles? Because as we discussed on Saturday, those interceptor stockpiles are very low and they are very expensive. So, like, an Iranian drone costs between 20 grand and 50 grand, while many of these US interceptor missiles cost several million dollars each. Finally, on the Iran front, then, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 85%, according to some energy analysts I saw this morning. Crude oil prices are up between 5 and 8%, which is a lot, but not catastrophic. Iran has attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz. I don't think they have mined it yet, though, which would be, you know, really stopping things up so that, I don't know. I just continue to be surprised by Iran kind of unloading the clip on every single country in the region. I guess the idea was just to create chaos. But what do you make of, of their strategy?
- [08:11]
A
Well, I think the message is that is that so long as violence and chaos is being rained on us, we're going to bring violence and chaos to everybody, including all these Gulf countries, nearly all of whom have some US Military presence in them. I'm not saying it's a good strategy. It's certainly reprehensible in terms of the indiscriminate targets that they're shooting at. But if there is a logic, it's that it's that we need to make this war so destabilizing to the region, to global energy markets, that there's just a pressure to make it stop. And look, they may not be inflicting tremendous physical damage because of the interceptors, but they are inflicting tremendous damage psychologically. If you are in Dubai, that city relies upon security, you know, security for international business travelers and tourism that is shattered right now. I mean, that could have long term effects for Dubai. I saw that they also hit some data centers in the uae. We're certainly firing at them. Well, the UAE is trying to get, you know, and is getting, as we talked about, hundreds of billions of dollars in investments to build data centers there. How do you feel about that investment these days? You know, are you looking to build data centers in the Gulf? So there is kind of a strategic logic in the sense that they're creating an insecurity. So long as our regime is not secure, you know, we can burn it all down and nobody's secure, which again, is dangerous. But there is some rationale. It's also the case that the Gulf is just closer, you know, so with drones in Particular, it's an easier shot for the Iranians. And then to your point about the interceptors, it's a bit of a race against time, because I presume that what Israel and the United States are trying to do is just take out as many ballistic missile sites, whether it's production facilities, launchers, before they basically run out of interceptors. Because the longer this thing goes on, if Iran can continue to fire things, ballistic missiles and drones in these kinds of waves, they're going to get through more and more of the air defense systems, because the air defense systems are just depleted. And so that's a real risk, too, here. I mean, Trump, you know, people keep talking about this as if, when might Trump stop the war? I also don't think there's any guarantee that Iran, as in the 12 Day War, although I think it's one war that Iran just stops because Trump stops just because we may run low on interceptors and say, all right, time out, guys, let's pause. The Iranians could keep firing. So it is a question of how much their ability to manufacture or store or hide drones and missiles can weather this initial onslaught in terms of how much damage they can do going forward.
- [10:56]
B
Yeah, we don't even know who would make the decision to stop if it run right now.
- [11:01]
A
Well, you made. I think the command and control point you made is essential because it feels like there were delegations made by the Supreme Leader anticipating he might be killed.
- [11:10]
B
And the thing. Abbas Arachi said as much on, like, some TV show he was on that, like, well, look, you know, we no longer have centralized command and control because we knew that if you killed, you know, top leaders, that we wanted these guys to be able to act independently. So we just really don't know what's happening.
- [11:24]
A
Well, that's right. And look, I don't. There was the inevitable story in the Times about the killing of the Supreme Leader and all this great intelligence. I mean, he was in his office. I mean, I have no, no disrespect to the CIA, but it'd be like, you know, wow, we figured out that the President's in the White House, you know, but it almost seemed like if the Supreme Leader wanted to survive, like, you know, he might have wanted to be, quote, unquote, martyred, you know, I don't know. I mean, he's a fucking asshole. I don't. It's not. Not at all someone you have any sympathy for. But it may be that he delegated down and said, you know, unload the clip, you know, in anticipation of this happening in some decapitation, they might have said to every IRGC commander with a drone or a missile, the orders to you are, if we die, just unload the clip.
- [12:10]
B
Yeah.
- [12:10]
A
And because that's what it feels like is happening.
- [12:12]
B
Yeah, it is. I don't know what intelligence collection the CIA did. I had the same reaction to you, which was like the Supreme Leader, knowing the threat he faced, was above ground in his own office, and adjacent to him was a meeting of all the top, like, Iranian political and military leaders. It's hard to overstate how stupid that was. I mean, it's obvious in hindsight, but I can't believe they didn't realize it in the moment. I mean, it does, maybe. That does, I think, explain why the strikes happen in the daytime, why they happen on the weekend. I also was talking to someone over the weekend who said Trump doesn't like to start wars during the weekday because he doesn't want to rattle the markets. I bet that is true, but you're right on the race. I mean, it is. I think from what I've read, it sounds like the ballistic missile launchers are the choke point. So I think the US And Israel are probably rushing to take out as many of those as possible. That said, I mean, I was just watching the Fox News, I think, and one of their big chirons is that the drones, Iran's drones have proven harder to intercept. And ultimately, like, those are easier to fly from a lot of places. Iran has more of them. You just sort of like, set the GPS coordinators in these drones, which, you know, they have like, lawnmower engines and they can. But they can fly like 2000km and just follow a GPS to a point. So that threat could take a long, long, long time to fully neutralize.
- [13:28]
A
And, and remember that those drones, those Iranian drones, have been used in Ukraine by the Russians. And the Russians were firing those drones at Ukrainian targets. And there were air defense systems there, too. I mean, these things, we've seen them on the battlefield in Ukraine, have a huge amount of damage that they can cause. So this is the point about the law. This keeps dragging on. It's going to be impossible to eliminate all their drones. These are like, you know, toy airplanes essentially, but, but can do a lot of damage. And, and so this, you know. Yes, they can. Their ballistic missiles are a, you know, a tool that is going to run out at some point, but I'm not sure that these drones will.
- [14:09]
B
Yeah, the ballistic missiles can do more damage, but right. In the long term, like, who knows how long they'll have these drones. So on Monday, President Trump finally spoke about the war he started on Saturday morning in public. It was not a major address to the nation. It was like a little Iran war topper at a, I think, preexisting ceremony to award the Medal of Honor to three people. Here's a bit of what he had to say in his remarks.
- [14:34]
C
I was very proud to have knocked out the Iran nuclear deal by President Barack Hussein Obama. That was a horrible, horrible, dangerous document. They would have had nuclear weapons three years ago, and they would have used them. This was our last, best chance to strike what we're doing right now and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by this sick and sinister regime. We're already substantially ahead of our time projections. But whatever the time is, it's okay. Whatever it takes, we will always. And we have. Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that. We'll do it. Whatever somebody said today, they said, oh, well, the president wants to do it really quickly. After that, he'll get bored. I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this. We also projected four weeks to terminate the military leadership. And as you know, that was done in about an hour. So we're ahead of schedule there by a lot. We have a lot of great service members here with us, too, in this beautiful building. Isn't it beautiful? We're adding onto the building a little bit. We're improving the building. See that nice drape? When that comes down? Right now, you see a very, very deep hole. But in about a year and a half from now, you're going to see a very, very beautiful building. I picked those drapes in my first term. I always like gold.
- [16:07]
B
Michael specifically led with the JCPOA criticism to trigger you. And as our greatest president said, mission accomplished. So, Ben, look, I think what listeners should take away from that supercut is just the incoherence, like, and it gets worse when you look at the totality of Trump's statements from Saturday till now, right? On Saturday, he talked about regime change as a goal. He told the Iranian people to rise up today. That was just not part of the messaging. The Saturday video statement about the war went through these, like, greatest hits of Iranian aggression and grievances with the two countries starting in 1979. The new spin on Monday is that Iran was trying to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, which, I don't know may or may not be true, but it certainly wasn't an imminent threat. And then he tries out this new line that we'll later hear from Hegseth, which is that Iran's ballistic missile program would provide a shield for its nuclear ambitions, which is complete and total bullshit, as evidenced by the fact that the US And Israel are pounding the fuck out of Iran's military targets now and would have been able to do so in the future. So everyone should write that off. And then on top of that, Ben Trump told one reporter that he had a list of three people who might run Iran going forward. And then later he called another reporter and said, just kidding, they're all dead. So I don't know, I don't have a ton of faith in, in the team running the show at the moment.
- [17:27]
A
No, I don't, Tommy. And actually, you know, the Iran nuclear deal has never looked better, which may be why Trump is trashing it. I think most Americans, almost all Americans, would rather that we be in year 10 of the JCPOA, then we'd be in this kind of incoherent war with Iran that is costing us tens of billions of dollars, already killed American service members, and it's like wreaking havoc on the global economy.
- [17:50]
B
And just one quick point on that, Ben. Like, people will be like, well, the deal would have sunsetted by now. The goal would have been to renegotiate it. And Trump could have gotten it a tougher deal if he'd wanted and if he did a good job in the negotiations.
- [18:01]
A
Yeah. And the whole deal, when a sunset, the strictest provisions would have sunset it. But, you know, January, I mean, frankly, Trump could have negotiated it two days ago. I mean, it is worth just saying they are completely full of shit about the need to do this now. There was no imminent threat from the nuclear program. There was no distinct threat from the Boston missile program that was any different than the, you know, how many, ever many years Iran has had blessing missiles, you know, 20 years. This happened now because Bibi Netanyahu wanted it to happen now. I mean, there's no really other explanation. It was, it was the Israelis who started going to Trump being like, now's the time, they're weak. And then in Lindsey Graham going to Trump and saying, you can be the man that took out the Supreme Leader to be historic and Reagan on steroids and all this, like the timing was determined by kind of Israeli interests and Trump's ego like that. That's the convergence of timing here.
- [18:48]
B
And by the way, Jonathan Greenblatt from the ADL called me an anti Semite for saying as much during the Last Iran war. And I'm sure it will do so again to the both of us. But again, like it's fully reported Netanyahu, like there's tons of reporting on this in the Times today and other places. Netanyahu is like taking credit and bragging about getting Trump to fight for him.
- [19:06]
A
Like, this is such an insult to our intelligence. I know Jonathan Green Botts of the world, because Bibi Netanyahu put out a video like yesterday in which he said that he's wanted to do this for 40 years and he finally got a US president to do it. He said it. Not us. Not us. Are you going to call Bibi Netanyahu, Nati Semi?
- [19:22]
B
I guess so.
- [19:23]
A
Like, this is totally absurd.
- [19:25]
B
Does he have dual loyalty? Is that what we're learning today?
- [19:27]
A
Allowed to say that Israel wanted this to happen? Israel keeps saying that. Before they said they wanted to happen, now they're saying it anyway. Break, break. The other things I, you know, that I take away the incoherence about what comes next inside of Iran. You know, he's calling reporters. I mean, the Times one is a journey. He had a six minute conversation with the New York Times. That in and of itself is a journey because on the one hand he's saying the Iranian people can rise up and, you know, it can be this regime change. On the other end, he's saying we can do the Venezuela model and just deal with somebody in the regime. Right. This is a guy who has no idea what his own plan is. Because first of all, the Venezuelan model is impossible inside of Iran. Like, this is a much more ideological, heavily armed regime and it's far more likely to fracture than that. There's one, if there's one individual who raises their hand to be the Delsey Rodriguez, you know, that's Venezuelan vice president who took over. The person who raises their hand in the Iranian system to be that person probably doesn't have a very long life expectancy inside of Iran.
- [20:22]
B
Yeah, they'll get shot up by, you know, 150,000 members of the IRGC and then a million or two Bastiege militia members on the outside. So, yeah.
- [20:29]
A
So when you take the totality of the scale of bombing that they're doing and the destruction that's being wrought and the absence of a plan, it just feels like, like some regime implosion or some, you know, kind of cornered, angry, you know, IRGC type regime is, is most likely to emerge. We'll see. The only other thing I want to say about Trump, Tommy, is that, you know, you can say this anytime he opens his mouth, but every other US President who's launched a war, you can kind of feel the gravity on their shoulders, you know, the degree to which this guy doesn't give a shit. I mean, right now he is killing probably thousands of Iranians. I mean, there's some preliminary estimates in the high hundreds, but I mean, you can't hit hundreds and hundreds of targets and not kill thousands of people, including, by the way, civilians. And we've already seen, you know, reportedly over 100 kids killed at that girls school. That doesn't seem to bother him in the slightest. And you know, Americans are dying. Already have had four Americans dying. Every American on a base in that region knows that they're being targeted by drones and ballistic missiles. And he's joking about, you know, I mean, we cannot allow that to be not reprehensible, because it is. And he's, you know, dropping the hits. Barack Hussein Obama. Okay, we get it. You know, he has a Muslim middle name. I mean, give us a break, man.
- [21:53]
B
It's all politics. And on your Israel point, I mean, there is all this reporting also that the Israelis are worried Trump might wrap things up sooner than they want to. So it's just like, it's not just that Netanyahu pushed him to start the war, it's that he's pushing him to continue it. Of the world is brought to you by Better Help International Women's Day is about celebrating progress, but also a reminder to check in on the women behind that progress. Women carry so much, often at the expense of their own peace. This March, let's shift the focus back to you. Therapy offers the space you deserve to recharge, reflect and reset. Better Helps quality therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US Better Help does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals? A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences and their 12 or more years of experience in industry leading. Match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 6 million people globally. And it works with an average of 4, 9 out of 5 for a live session based on over 1.7 million client reviews. Guys, it's 2026. You want to talk to somebody? There's a lot going on out there. Talk to a therapist. It'll help you a lot. It'll make you a better person. It'll make life better. You will wonder, why didn't I do this earlier? Your emotional well being matters. Find support and feel lighter in therapy. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com crookedworld that's betterhelp H-E-L-P.com crooked world positive world is brought to you by Simply Safe. If you're like me, you're desensitized to the dozens of notifications on your phone each day. But if the latest ping is from your security camera, ignoring it could spell disaster. Picture this. Someone is breaking in, but you're giving a huge presentation at work. You're at the movies. You're on a flight at 30,000ft. You'll see the footage in a couple hours. By then it is too late. That's why you need SimpliSafe. SimpliSafe is a customizable whole home security system backed 24, 7 by monitoring agents you can rely on to act even when you can't. I set up a SimpliSafe incredibly easy to do. You can customize it on the website, comes in the mail you installed in a matter of minutes and then the app. Incredibly easy to use and reliable. The customer support was great and really reliable so I recommend it. Traditional security systems only act after someone has already broken in that is too late. SimpliSafe's Active Guard Outdoor Protection can help prevent break ins before they happen. While other security companies lock you in, SimpliSafe comes with no long term contract. They earn your trust every day by keeping you safe and satisfied. They are so confident in the protection they provide they even back it in with an anti theft guarantee. I'm not the only one. SimpliSafe protects over 4 million people. They have 20 years of experience in home security. They were just named best home security system of 2026 by U.S. news World Report. They have been named the best customer service in home security with industry leading customer satisfaction scores to prove it. Right now my listeners can get 50% off their new SimpliSafe system at simplisafe.com crookedworld that's simplisafe.com crookedworld there's no safe like SimpliSafe. This episode is presented by Planned Parenthood Federation of America. No matter where you live or how much money you make, you deserve to get the health care you need when you need it. One in four people across the country have come to a Planned Parenthood health center for care. But in A politically motivated attempt to block patients from using their Medicaid insurance to get essential care at Planned Parenthood. The Trump administration and its backers in Congress passed a law to defund Planned Parenthood. As many as 200 Planned Parenthood health centers could close. That means cancers will go undetected, STIs will go untreated, and patients won't get the birth control or abortion care they need to plan their families and their futures. But Planned Parenthood is not backing down. They're still showing up for patients providing essential care and making sure that everyone can get the life saving, life changing services they need. Alongside people like you and me, Planned Parenthood fights every day to build the future we deserve. One where everyone can get the care they need, no matter who they are or where they live. Planned Parenthood is an unbelievably important organization that is providing health care to countless people in places where they otherwise just would not be able to get it. These politicized tax on Planned Parenthood means people are going to die. Cancers will go undetected. Women will not be able to get the care they need. It is an outrage. So if you can support Planned Parenthood, please do donate now to Support Planned parenthood@planned parenthood.org defend. Just to kind of continue to nail this point, here's a clip of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth from the press conference he did this morning. That press conference also included General Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, who frankly seems to conduct himself in a far more professional and kind of like by the book way that you'd expect. So we're not including any of that. Obviously he's part of this idiotic, crazy policy. There are reports that he was more critical about it. But we're just going to play Hegseth for you this morning. So let's watch.
- [26:41]
D
Iran was building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions. Let me say that again. A conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions. Our bases, our people, our allies, all in their crosshairs. Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb. It almost worked under Obama and his terrible deal, but not under this president. To the media outlets and political left screaming endless wars. Stop. This is not Iraq. This is not endless. This operation is a clear, devastating, decisive mission. Destroy the missile threat, destroy the Navy. No nukes, no stupid rules of engagement, no nation building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win and we don't waste time or lives. As the President warned, an effort of this scope will include casualties. War is hell and always will be. As it pertains to the US Casualties that particular incident was, you know, you have air defenses and the lot's coming in and you hit most of it. And we absolutely do. We have incredible air defenders. Every once in a while you might have one. Unfortunately, we call it a squirter that makes its way through. And in that particular case, it happened to hit a tactical operations center.
- [28:14]
B
So, I mean, look, saying no stupid rules of engagement when you just reportedly bombed a school full of little girls is like, fucking disgusting. Again, though, like, he's lying. There is no such thing as a conventional shield for Iran's nuclear program.
- [28:28]
A
But wait, Tommy, he said it twice. Yeah, they had a gun to our head the second time. Really?
- [28:31]
B
Yeah, yeah, a conventional gun to our head. Again, the US could annihilate like, whatever this conventional shield would be. Second, like I. The bloodless, like, fatalistic ways that he and Trump are trying to talk about American casualties to kind of, I don't know, spin it away. It's like this. This war did not need to happen. I think that is the important point. This wasn't a squirter. I don't even know what that means. This is an Iranian drone that killed American service members because you assholes launched a war of choice that we didn't need to start. And then finally, Ben, like, again, like you said earlier, like, Hegseth does not get to decide when the war ends. Like, the Iranians could decide to fight this for a generation and it would just might be sporadic, but people are going to die.
- [29:14]
A
That's. Yeah, I mean, I'm glad you said that. Because they can say this is not another endless war, another forever war, because we're going to stop bombing at some point, but that doesn't mean that the war ends at that point. The people in Iran could still be killing each other and dying. They could still be firing things at people in the region. Like, like just. I mean, the 12 day war was not a 12 day war. It's still going on. You know, like, do. We don't Describe World War II as is a series of hundred different wars because at times we weren't, you know, this is a stupid fucking way that they're trying to make the American people and their MAGA base in particular feel like they didn't just open Pandora's box, because they did. And look, Pete Hegg said this, you know, you want the Secretary of Defense to be Kind of sober and reassuring. That is anything but in qualified. That's a guy who's, you know, looks like, I mean, maybe he's not drinking, but, like, he had to fucking take some Adderall and, like, repeat, you know, the conventional shield line to himself in the mirror before going out, you know, so he could look tough or something. Like, he doesn't know he's not qualified to be managing this. He doesn't know, you know, you know, it's all buzzwords with him and no rules of engagement and this and that. What is the plan? I mean, there's another thing I've been thinking about, Tommy, and we can talk about it on the podcast a little more. But if you're the Gulf allies, right, who rely on the United States for your existential security, if you're Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the uae, let's just take those three. You're probably, like, making up plans to buy a nuclear weapon, you know, because you're like, I can't rely on the. These as are a lot of countries.
- [30:48]
B
A lot of our adversaries probably are, too.
- [30:51]
A
Yeah.
- [30:51]
B
Because North Korea, North Korea's got nukes and an icbm and no one's messing with them.
- [30:56]
A
Kim looks, you know, like he's ripping cigs and looking at stuff, and he's just fine. Right. And, and, and so I, I, I did. The lack of who wants. Because the MAGA audience doesn't even want this war. Like, who is Hegseth talking to? Right? I mean, that's not reassuring allies. That's not reassuring Americans. That's not intimidating Iranians. Like, he's, like, literally performing for Fox News and Lindell TV and whoever else is in that, in that briefing room without giving any coherence or clarity about, you know, because what he said about the mission, that it's not about democracy. Well, I don't. I thought they've been telling us for weeks that this is because of peaceful protesters, that we had to come to their aid. And Donald Trump telling the Iranian people to rise up. If you're one of the Iranian people that is thinking of rising up, and then you hear Hexa say, this is not about democracy. It's about killing. It's about destroying their missiles and Navy. Does that incentivize you to rise up? I mean, like, it makes no sense.
- [31:56]
B
It is totally incoherent. Yeah. I mean, it's incoherent for the people in Iran who aren't clear whether Trump is fully pushing for regime change or not. That the, the distinction in the Goals is pretty important to the Gulf countries you just mentioned too, because the worst case scenario for them is, you know, we bomb a bunch of stuff, but then Trump kind of just gives up and leaves some, you know, rump version of the regime or like a next up IRGC led government that hates, you know, their countries just as much and are just as caustic and terrible. I mean, maybe they won't have the capacity to support proxies, maybe they want the capacity to do things that we're worried about, but I don't know, I wouldn't want to bet on it.
- [32:34]
A
Well, and, and that, because that's the most likely scenario, doesn't that feel like the most likely scenario now? That like, essentially we bond them for a few weeks, kill more and more people, but then there's maybe some civil conflict, but the IRGC and the besieged just massacre people in horrible numbers and then there's this kind of crazy rump IRGC regime and you can say that they've been defanged, but it's still a giant country and they'll rebuild some capacity and they might be more dangerous. They'll certainly try to get a nuclear weapon. I mean, yeah, like, that's got to be less than they take. So their desire to run this war by the news cycle is so ahistorical because when you decapitate the regime of a country of 92 million people that is heavily armed, it's not going to end when you try to turn the news cycle off, which is what they'll do in four or five weeks or whenever it is. And that it's just astonishing to me how much they think, I mean, that Venezuela thing must have gone to their head. Oh, definitely that, that they thought that you could do the same thing in Iran, which is a fucking wildly different country in a wildly different part of the world where there's been a lot more war, conflict and civil conflict and
- [33:51]
B
it's a lot more coherent.
- [33:52]
A
Yeah.
- [33:52]
B
Cohesive of a country. I, yeah, I think that like, there's almost certainly a scenario where Trump will and the Israelis will bomb the shit out of a lot of like, advanced military infrastructure that will in the near term at least reduce the threat to the US Or Israel, but it will not in any way reduce the threat to the people that we are telling to take to the streets and rise up. Because you don't need an ICBM to kill a protester, you just need a gun. And they are all over Iran. Ben, speaking of kind of incoherence. So the Democratic Party's response been a little all over the place. Some Democrats have been great and we can talk about them if you want. Some Democrats have fully endorsed the war, which is just absolutely insane to me given the recent history in Iraq, in Libya for example, or more generally that you would trust Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth with a task like this. I, I think you've lost your mind if you are, you know, co signing this process. But we'll find out. And then you have a bunch of Democrats like we discussed over the weekend, that have focused their condemnation on the process they need to get a vote from Congress to authorize a war or the need to clearly spell out the goals to the, to the American people. And obviously I, I agree with both of those criticisms, but the ship is kind failed there. So, you know, we're in a tough spot. The one thing I would just like, I want to implore Democrats listening to loudly condemn the war on the merits like it is not popular. This does not poll well. It will not poll well as time goes on. And then the things I would just focus on though are Trump is lying about the threat. Right. Iran is nowhere close to having a nuclear weapon. Iran was nowhere close to having a missile that could hit the United States. He lied. He is lying. Hammer them for it. This talk, talk about the cost. Four service members are dead, already more gravely wounded. The conflict has already cost tens of billions of dollars. Trump ran against regime change, wars. No one wants us spending money this way. Not the maga right, not the, the left, nobody. And then I like I would highlight the chaos all over the world because this war is not just happening in Iran right now. It is, it is terrorizing populations in Israel and Lebanon. It is killing people and spilling into all these cities in the Gulf. It is making American diplomats and tourists less safe all over the world. There were some reports today, I don't know if they're confirmed then that this terrorist gunman in Texas might have been motivated by what's happening in Iran. Things could happen in the US like it is making us all less safe. And I don't get the hesitation to just take on the war on the merits, on the substance and focus on that. But what are you looking for from Democrats? And we should say, you know, the Senate might have a war powers vote this week. The House won't be in session until Thursday to have any kind of deliberation or vote on this. I think there's some US Senators who are concerned that a war powers vote actually might just kind of like be taken care of by, like Trump might be able to push away the kind of concerns over congressional authorization too quickly. And what we really need is a vote in a debate about an AUMF and authorization for the use of military force in Iran, which would actually be harder to get because it would take a 60 vote threshold versus 50 votes. But that's a bit in the weeds. But what are you looking for from Democrats?
- [37:02]
A
A spine and a pulse would be the two things I'm looking for. And again, I want to be clear. There are a lot of Democrats, probably the majority of Democrats in Congress who have been very good. And you know, again, Chris Murphy, Ruben Gallego, like the Progressive Caucus in the House, like many people. Right. But you know, there's, there's some people that are outwardly supportive and then there's some, some people who are kind of so anodyne as to, you don't know where they stand. Look, the point is that we are, you know, a few days into this war. It's clearly a shit show. Trump started on vacation. The, the reason, one of the reasons that he doesn't pay a bigger price for this kind of incoherence and insanity and doing something that is so against Trump public opinion is that there's not a unified opposition party that is being vocal and aggressive and coherent and holding him accountable. And so it lets him escape some of the accountability that he should be facing for what's happening. There's a couple kind of Democrats here, the people that are supportive. I said this on our last episode, but there's an overlapping Venn diagram between who takes a lot of APEC money. But if you're going to be supportive, even if you hate the Iranian regime, to your point, Tommy, like that Donald Trump and Pete, that you would trust them with anything is beyond the pale. But there's another kind of Democratic response that I think we need to name, which is people who are like, nervous, like, what if this goes okay?
- [38:30]
B
Yes.
- [38:30]
A
Like, I don't want to go. I don't want to be too, oh, he killed the Supreme Leader. I don't want to look. You know, like, look, it's like a Gulf War.
- [38:36]
B
One hangover from like, it's a golf war.
- [38:38]
A
One hangover.
- [38:39]
B
It's crazy.
- [38:39]
A
And here's the thing. We should just be anti war, full stop, unless there's an imminent threat that absolutely compels this nation to take military action. The Democratic Party should be morally, legally, ethically, priority wise because we want to spend money at home instead of abroad. The easiest political message in the World to deliver. That is not a hard message to deliver. We are spending more money on munitions in the Persian Gulf right now than on the ACA subsidies that were cut. Like, this is, you know, you don't need to be a, you know, Dan Pfeiffer to like, decipher this. This one.
- [39:12]
B
Yeah.
- [39:12]
A
Shout out, Dan. But.
- [39:14]
B
Shout out. Yeah.
- [39:16]
A
The point being is that, like, even if this is the best case scenario, which I don't think it's going to be for all the reasons you said, I would still be against it because as a matter of principle and frankly, to be in line with public opinion, particularly the public opinion of our own people in the Democratic Party, like, we need to be against this. And so I just really hope we start to see, like, more of a pulse from the Democrats and not just like, we want to have this vote on this, which I'm. Props to Rokhanna. It's not against him, but the concern that you have one vote that fails and then you want to pivot to your economic messaging, you know, well, your economic messaging is this. It's like, let's not keep fighting dumb wars so we can spend money on the things that people actually care about. I just would like to see Democrats, like, want to have this debate and not sometimes look like, unhappy that someone's asking the question about it.
- [40:09]
B
Yeah. Lean into this. The Washington Post did a flash poll. 52% of Americans oppose the war, 39% support it. But, like, the opponents are far more passionate.
- [40:20]
A
Like, and that's the high water mark.
- [40:22]
B
Yeah, that's high watermark, you know, and it's 40%, like, strongly opposed and an overwhelming majority of independents oppose this war. So, like, you are on sound political footing. You are on 100% sound legal and moral footing. Trump is lying. He's a bunch of. They're staffed by fucking idiots, this administration. Like, just come on, what are we doing here?
- [40:43]
A
Yeah. And that's the thing, is that the day that the. The Supreme Leader is killed is. There's not another thing that Trump's going to do in this war that is going to drive up public opinion about this war. You know, I cannot imagine. And even if it ends, like, how much, to your point, like, get the answers to how much this cost and what's the damage and what was the economic cost? Because all this is already are things that have already happened and that are ongoing and another reason to be vociferous. And I have a piece out in the New York Times if people want to check this out today. But he's going to do this again. So. So one reason to really post him here is I don't do trust that this is the last war Donald Trump's going to start.
- [41:23]
B
Lindsey Graham is again on air on TV over the weekend, like near orgasm talking about how Cuba is next. So it's like this is again just going to happen again. Yeah, sucks. Okay, I think that's it for us for today again. We're going to record again Tuesday for Wednesday normal release. Thank you guys for watching this. Sorry this is happening in the world. Absolutely sucks. But here we are so we're going to cover it and thanks for watching and Subscribing Pod Save the World is a Crooked Media production. Our senior producer is Ilona Minkowski. Our producer is Michael Goldsmith. Our associate producer is Anisha Banerjee. We get production support from Saul Rubin. Our executive producers are me, Tommy Vitor and Ben Rhodes. The show is engineered, mixed and edited by Jordan Kantor Audio support by Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Thank you to our digital team, Ben Hethcote, Mia Kelman, William Jones, David Towles and Ryan Young. Matt de Groat is our head of production. Adrian Hill is our senior Vice President of News and politics. If you want to listen to Pod Save the World ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. Don't forget to follow us at Crooked Media on Instagram, TikTok and Twitter for more original content, host takeovers and other community events. Please subscribe to Pod Save the world on YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and much more. And if you're opinionated like us, leave a review. Our production staff is proudly unionized by the Writers Guild of America East.