Pod Save the World: What’s Next for Syria? Episode Release Date: December 11, 2024

Hosts:

• Tommy Vietor
• Ben Rhodes

1. Introduction

In this episode of Pod Save the World, hosts Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes delve into the seismic shifts occurring in Syria following the recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They explore the implications of HTS's takeover, the international community's response, and broader geopolitical dynamics affecting the region. Additionally, the hosts touch upon other global political upheavals, including South Korea's brief martial law declaration, France's governmental collapse, Romania's contested elections, and Benjamin Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trials.

2. Recent Developments in Syria

a. HTS Takes Control

HTS has rapidly captured significant territories in Syria, leading to the ousting of Bashar al-Assad and the establishment of an interim government. This swift transition has stunned international observers and sparked intense debates over the future governance and stability of Syria.

Ben Rhodes notes:

“[...] it's not like HTS just appeared overnight. They've been preparing, planning for this transition.” (04:11)

b. Reforms and Announcements by HTS

HTS has made several key announcements signaling a departure from its previous hardline stance:

• Formation of an Interim Government: Led by Mohammed Al Bashir, HTS's interim prime minister until March 1. (07:20)
• General Amnesty: Granted to former Assad regime military members.
• Women's Rights: HTS has declared they "won't interfere with how women look or dress." (07:20)

These moves are aimed at fostering a more inclusive and democratic governance structure, although skepticism remains about HTS's long-term intentions.

Doreen Khalifa, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, comments:

“The practices by the opposition fighters have shown a lot of promises. They were really giving a lot of reassurances for minorities, for all people from all ethnicities, religions, sectors.” (07:20)

c. International Reactions and Policy Debates

The international community is grappling with how to engage with the new Syrian leadership. The primary contention revolves around the U.S. designation of HTS as a terrorist organization, which impedes humanitarian aid and diplomatic interactions.

Tommy Vietor questions:

“The big question in Washington and capitals in Europe is how to deal with HTS [...] the US has designated HTS as a terrorist group. I'm sure the UK has as well.” (08:40)

3. Interview with Doreen Khalifa

Ben Rhodes conducts an insightful interview with Doreen Khalifa, shedding light on HTS's strategies and their implications for Syria's future.

a. Insights from Engagement with HTS Leadership

Doreen shares her extensive experience interacting with HTS's leader, Abu Mohammed Al Jelani, highlighting his strategic vision and willingness to engage in governance reforms.

Doreen Khalifa states:

“He really struck me as someone who has thought through a lot of different scenarios in his head.” (64:25)

She further elaborates on Jelani's commitment to inclusivity and the challenges HTS faces in transitioning from a militant group to a governing body.

b. Transition Plans and Challenges

While HTS has made promising announcements, Doreen expresses skepticism about the existence of a well-thought-out transition plan. She emphasizes that the group is likely scrambling to manage governance amidst unprecedented rapid changes.

Doreen Khalifa remarks:

“My sense is that they had no clue that they're going to get a love vote, let alone the entire country.” (70:13)

4. US Policy Recommendations

a. Lifting Terrorist Designations

Doreen advocates for the U.S. to lift the terrorist designation on HTS to facilitate humanitarian aid and diplomatic engagement.

Doreen Khalifa advises:

“The US needs to reconsider its sanctions and designations on all of Syria. The whole country is under U.S. sanctions. And that is a huge impediment for peace and security.” (74:13)

b. Supporting Reconstruction and Humanitarian Aid

By lifting sanctions, the U.S. can aid in delivering essential reconstruction assistance and support a more stable governance framework.

Ben Rhodes concurs:

“I think this is really an opportunity for the US to say, all right, these are 10 things you need to do in the next phase.” (76:13)

5. Regional and International Dynamics

a. Relations with Russia, Iran, Turkey

The interplay between regional powers remains a critical factor. Russia's softened stance towards HTS and Iran's waning influence due to their entanglements elsewhere create a complex geopolitical landscape.

Ben Rhodes observes:

“Russia has been bombing these groups for nearly a decade [...] they have less influence because they don't have a puppet.” (19:22)

b. Kurdish Forces and SDF

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S., are navigating tense relations with Turkey. The recent offensive heightens the urgency for diplomatic solutions to prevent further conflicts.

Doreen Khalifa highlights:

“There's a chance for Turkey, for the Kurdish-led groups to sit and sort out their security concerns politically.” (74:13)

c. European Countries' Response to Syrian Refugees

European nations are reacting variably to the refugee crisis exacerbated by Syria's instability. Countries like Germany, Austria, and Greece are freezing Syrian asylum applications, raising concerns about the safety and feasibility of deportations amid ongoing conflicts.

Tommy Vietor notes:

“It sounds like Austria wants to expel some or all of the 100,000 Syrians currently living there.” (16:14)

Ben Rhodes adds:

“This shows the inconsistency in the policy.” (16:23)

6. Additional Global Political Developments

a. South Korea's Political Instability

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yul briefly declared martial law in what appeared to be a self-coup attempt. The move was swiftly challenged by the National Assembly, reflecting deep political divisions.

Danny Russell, Assistant Secretary of State for Asian Affairs, comments:

“South Korea is a critical player in maintaining regional security. Dysfunction in Seoul equals temptation for North Korea.” (42:46)

b. France's Government Collapse

France's newly appointed Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, was ousted after failing to secure a budget that met EU requirements. This marks the shortest tenure for a French Prime Minister in over six decades, plunging Macron's administration into uncertainty.

Ben Rhodes explains:

“Macron relied on the left to beat back the far right in those parliamentary elections, and then he totally screwed them in the government formation.” (48:10)

c. Romania's Election Controversy

Romania's presidential runoff was annulled due to evidence of foreign interference, suspected to be Russian, using sleeper cell social media accounts to influence the election. This decision has polarized Romanian society and delayed the electoral process.

Tommy Vietor summarizes:

“It's an effective fucking deep state. This is how you deep state.” (51:26)

d. Netanyahu's Corruption Trials

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to face multiple corruption charges. His unprecedented appearance as a defendant at his own trial marks a significant moment in Israeli politics, though a verdict is not expected until 2026.

Ben Rhodes comments:

“He clearly violated [corruption laws]. He's got an arrest warrant from the ICC.” (55:28)

e. Trump's Foreign Policy Moves

Former President Donald Trump remains active on the international stage, engaging in efforts to broker ceasefires and manage ongoing conflicts. His approach contrasts sharply with the current administration's policies, creating a complex dynamic in U.S. foreign relations.

Ben Rhodes observes:

“Trump's plan for who runs Gaza [...] it's probably not what the Palestinian view of that is.” (59:10)

7. Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The episode underscores the fragile state of Syria's transition following HTS's takeover, emphasizing the need for strategic international engagement to support sustainable governance and reconstruction. The broader geopolitical implications, from South Korea's political turmoil to Europe's refugee challenges, highlight the interconnectedness of global stability. Additionally, the episode reflects on the shifting dynamics within U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the context of Trump's ongoing influence.

Key Quotes:

• Doreen Khalifa: “The practices by the opposition fighters have shown a lot of promises. They were really giving a lot of reassurances for minorities, for all people from all ethnicities, religions, sectors.” (07:20)

• Ben Rhodes: “HTS has said all the right things. I'm not suggesting that there aren't extremist elements that have to be dealt with, but why not lift these designations?” (09:31)

• Tommy Vietor: “The Trump transition team is giving a loyalty test to people applying for national security jobs.” (31:19)

• Doreen Khalifa: “The US needs to reconsider its sanctions and designations on all of Syria. The whole country is under U.S. sanctions. And that is a huge impediment for peace and security.” (74:13)

Note: This summary is intended to provide a comprehensive overview of the podcast episode "What’s Next for Syria?" from Pod Save the World. For an in-depth understanding and additional context, listeners are encouraged to tune into the full episode.