Political Thinking with Nick Robinson
Episode: China, Russia and Us: Tony Radakin on Four Years as Chief of the Defence Staff
Date: September 5, 2025

Episode Overview

In this in-depth and candid episode, Nick Robinson sits down with Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, freshly retired as the UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff after four transformative and turbulent years. Their conversation spans Radakin’s reflections on shifting global power and security dynamics, Britain's evolving role on the world stage, direct insights from wartime diplomacy (particularly regarding Ukraine and Russia), the challenges of defence leadership, and Radakin’s own personal journey from a state grammar school in Oldham to the top military post in the country.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Beijing Military Parade: New Alliances? (01:57–04:52)

• Radakin’s Perspective: While the display of military might by China alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea is “impressive at one level,” Radakin cautions that real alliances are built on history and mutual trust, not just pageantry.
  • "It’s much more substantial than a big parade." (02:24)
• Autocracy versus NATO: Highlighted the absence of “mutual trust” among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and how, unlike NATO, these countries don’t reliably support one another in crises.
  • "The China relationship with Russia is much more of Russia being a vassal state to China." (03:52)
• Strategic Optimism: Radakin sees Russia’s reliance on North Korea and Iran as a sign of its desperation, not strength.

2. Inside the Lead-Up to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (04:52–07:07)

• Direct Talks With Russia: Radakin recounts his tense pre-invasion dialogue with Russian military leaders, describing the “white lies” of Russian denials.
  • "General Gerasimov was really clear… ‘we have no plans to invade Ukraine’. And that was nonsense." (06:22)
• British Warning and Diplomacy: The UK’s intelligence on Russia’s intent was strong, but Radakin emphasizes the routine diplomatic dance where both sides know the truth is being sidestepped.

3. Britain's Political Response: Standing With Ukraine (07:50–11:41)

• Radakin’s Valedictory Praise: He singles out Boris Johnson, Ben Wallace, and Liz Truss for swiftly and decisively backing Ukraine and credits successive Prime Ministers and opposition for unity.
  • "It’s been really clear and really helpful… Ukraine has never been a polarizing issue." (08:42)
• Contrast with Europe: UK’s response was immediate, while Europe was initially skeptical; “The spectre of Iraq came up” as other nations doubted British intelligence. (11:07)
• A Political Tsunami: Recalls the “political tsunami” as the UK government pivoted sharply to support Ukraine on the day of invasion. (09:32–10:53)

4. The Experience of War-Time Leadership (11:41–14:03)

• Travelling to Ukraine: Describes the emotional gravity of accompanying four different British Prime Ministers to Ukraine, witnessing the leadership of Zelenskyy, and handling “heart and head” aspects of military support.
  • "The support for Ukraine has to be heart and head." (13:03)
• Diplomatic Roles: Often played “bad cop” to keep support relationships candid and effective.

5. Atypical Military Rise—Personal Story (14:03–17:20)

• Background: Radakin was not from the expected elite or military family background; he grew up in Oldham, his father was a computer salesman. He was driven by curiosity about where a naval career could lead.
  • "I was always curious as to where I would end up." (16:19)
• Meritocracy and Timing: Attributes his rise to timing, luck, merit, and an appetite for shaking up established routines, particularly during COVID and the Integrated Review era.

6. Defence Spending and the End of the 'Peace Dividend' (17:56–21:55)

• Shifting Eras: Reflects that his career saw the end of the Cold War, then decades of defence cutbacks—the “peace dividend”—and now a dramatic reversal.
  • "The peace dividend is over. The Prime Minister talks about the new defence dividend… Europe is spending more on defence than America combined." (17:56)
• Political Promises versus Reality: Though commitments to increase spending are notable, he remains candid that delivering the 3.5% of GDP target is a long-term, internationally pressured obligation, not a fait accompli.
  • "I didn't want to pretend that next year we've got oodles more cash, but it's the trajectory…" (21:55)

7. Can the UK Public Be Won Over? The Reality of Defence Priorities (21:55–23:51)

• Public Appetite for Increased Spending: Emphasizes this is a matter for Prime Ministerial leadership and security assessment—sometimes clarity can’t be achieved in public.
  • "We are safe… but if you look ahead into the 2030s, this competition is getting more fierce." (22:24 & 22:46)
• Cautious Communication: Warns against catastrophizing to alarm the public, which would play into Russian hands.

8. NATO, Trump, and Confidence in Alliances (25:01–28:23)

• US Political Instability: Radakin acknowledges anxiety about unpredictable US leadership but trusts in the enduring and “dull” continuity of UK/US security ties.
  • "There’s a dullness to national strategic interests… and that’s what we’ve got." (27:14)
• Trump’s Russia Moves: Sees new diplomatic initiatives to push for an end to the Ukraine war as part of a genuine effort to secure peace, not as signals of Western abandonment.

9. War Optimism: The Reality of Russian Progress (30:04–32:44)

• Notable Analogy: "If a snail had left Rostov-on-Don in Russia on 24 February 2022, by now it would have crossed all the way through Ukraine and it will be halfway through Poland. That’s how difficult Russia is finding it…" (30:24)
  • This analogy underlines his belief that Russia has failed in its goals and that Ukraine’s resistance and the West’s support remain consequential.
• Ceasefire and the “Coalition of the Willing”: Radakin hints that the preparation for a future coalition effort, led by the UK and France, is not about capitulation but about long-term European security.

10. Leadership Lows: Deaths, Data Breaches, and Sobering Moments (34:03–37:32)

• Worst Experiences: The deaths of military personnel—whether in training or in combat—remain Radakin’s most painful memories.
  • "I remember… we were responsible for a young army diver losing his life… Those are the difficult moments." (34:11)
• Afghan Data Breach: While the breach was “shocking,” Radakin highlights the subsequent “remarkable ability” to retrieve and resettle at-risk Afghans (36:08–36:55).

11. Engaging With China: Diplomacy & Deterrence (37:51–41:54)

• First CDS Visit in a Decade: Radakin defends the necessity of keeping open military-to-military channels with China to avoid miscalculation and misreading.
  • "It’s even more important that P5 nations, that nuclear powers, have military to military relationships." (38:36)
• Directness About Taiwan and Lessons From Ukraine: Stresses that occupying nations is a far harder endeavor in reality than hawkish strategists imagine. Suggests the view that Taiwan could “fall without a shot” ignores the lessons of Ukraine and elsewhere.

12. Military Lessons from Israel & the Middle East (41:54–46:33)

• Learning from Allies: Praises Israeli military’s capabilities and willingness to act decisively, including airstrikes against Iran and Hezbollah, for delivering significant operational lessons.
  • "There’s a lot to learn, particularly the Israeli penetration of those terrorist organizations. Then the willingness to act and...the success of those." (44:34)
• Bizarre Moments in Command: Describes extraordinary inter-military communications—such as calling Lebanese counterparts to pre-warn of Israeli movements—to illustrate the complexity and trust involved in his role.

13. Stepping Down: Personal Reflection & The Weight of Command (46:33–48:12)

• Life After the Top Job: Expects some “decompression” and pointedly recounts his sons’ irreverent suggestion: "Dad, you do realise after you've handed over, you'll be Tony who." (46:53)
• Standing on Shoulders of Giants: Ends with gratitude for the privilege of command, acknowledging that leadership is a temporary honor temporarily enabled by all those who serve.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Russian Progress in Ukraine:
  • “If a snail had left Rostov-on-Don in Russia on 24 February 2022, by now it would have crossed all the way through Ukraine and it will be halfway through Poland. That’s how difficult Russia is finding it just to get those four oblasts.” — Radakin (30:24)
• On Military Parades and Alliances:
  • “For nations to come together and to be prepared to fight together and to support each other, it’s much more substantial than a big parade.” — Radakin (02:24)
• On the Reality of Defence Leadership:
  • “The role of a former chief of Defence is to support the person on watch.” — Radakin (32:44)
• On Public Appetite for Defence Spending:
  • “I could do a speech next week and scare the British public. And that might make the politician’s life much easier. It would not be the responsible thing to do and it would be what Putin wants.” — Radakin (23:26)
• On Stepping Back From High Command:
  • “You stand on the shoulders of giants, the men and women that serve our country… and temporarily you’re allowed to stand on their shoulders…” — Radakin (48:01)
• On Personal Optimism:
  • “We should be really confident about who we are and who our partnership and allies are. And we need to reflect that. We need to be stronger in the future, but we shouldn’t be cowed or scared by it.” — Radakin (02:24–03:28)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Main introduction & framing: 00:39–01:55
• China parade & modern autocratic alliances: 01:57–04:52
• Pre-war warnings to Russia & Whitehall response: 04:52–11:41
• Leadership alongside UK PMs & Zelensky: 11:41–14:03
• Radakin’s background, meritocracy and career: 14:03–17:20
• Era shift: Defence spending & the end of the ‘peace dividend’: 17:56–21:55
• Public support and dilemmas for defence funding: 21:55–23:51
• NATO, US politics and the durability of alliances: 25:01–28:23
• War optimism: Russia’s stalled goals: 30:04–32:44
• The emotional lows of command: 34:03–37:32
• Engagement with China/Taiwan scenarios: 37:51–41:54
• Israel’s military lessons and inter-military diplomacy: 41:54–46:33
• Stepping down, reflection, and legacy: 46:33–48:12

Conclusion

This wide-ranging conversation is a rare, personal look beneath the grand strategic headlines at the mixture of realism, optimism, leadership, and emotional weight which has marked Sir Tony Radakin’s four years as Chief of the Defence Staff. His central message: Britain and its allies should face the world’s new dangers soberly, but with firm confidence in their strengths and partnerships, and without succumbing to panic or pessimism.

Listen to the full episode for more detail and further memorable moments.