Political Thinking with Nick Robinson

Episode: The Friedrich Merz One
Date: July 18, 2025
Host: Nick Robinson
Guest: Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany

Episode Overview

In this special episode recorded at the German Embassy in London, Nick Robinson interviews Germany’s new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, just ten weeks into his tenure. The episode focuses on Merz’s bid to redefine Germany’s role as a military and economic power, the new UK-Germany friendship treaty, and the implications for European security, the economy, and migration. The conversation provides personal insight into Merz’s worldview, shaped by historic shifts in Europe, ongoing challenges with Russia, relations with the US, and the rise of political populism.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Germany’s New Military Stance and the Russian Threat

• Merz’s Approach: Merz insists Germany needs to be powerful militarily, not just economically, due to growing threats from Russia and an increasingly disengaged United States.
  • “It’s important that we are becoming stronger militarily than we were in the past...” (01:55, Merz)
  • The government is investing more than ever in defense, even borrowing and changing the constitution to do so. (02:42, Merz)
• Long-Term Strategic View:
  • Merz sees Russia as a threat to all European order, not just Ukraine. (03:22)
  • Germany’s historic reliance and optimism about Russia has been irrevocably altered since Crimea (2014) and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (03:50)

2. Transatlantic Relations and European Independence

• The Decline of US Commitment:
  • Merz points out the current US administration (Trump, 2025) is less committed to European defense compared to predecessors. Putin’s belligerence and US demands for Europe to “take care of your own” precipitate a more independent European defense policy. (08:00)
  • “We had been free riders in the past...they are not willing, understandably, they are not willing to do that any longer.” (08:00, Merz)
• Personal Relations with Trump:
  • Despite political differences, Merz maintains regular communication with Trump and US officials to try to forge compromises on Ukraine and trade. (10:17)
  • “We are on the phone once a week. We are coordinating our efforts.” (10:17, Merz)

3. The UK-Germany Friendship Treaty

• Defence Focus:
  • The treaty is the first of its kind, focusing on defense cooperation, including joint development of long-range missiles and renewed mutual defense commitments. (06:52)
  • Aims to increase European self-reliance as US support becomes more uncertain (07:37).
• Tripartite Cooperation in Europe:
  • Merz describes a “triangle of powers”: UK, Germany, and France, emphasizing closer ties due to US disengagement. (07:37, 19:09)
• Brexit Reflections:
  • Regrets over the UK leaving the EU (“If I were a Brit, ...I had voted to remain”), but determination to forge new bilateral links. (17:17)

4. Economic Challenges & Modernization

• Europe Losing Ground:
  • Merz acknowledges claims (such as JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon) that Europe is falling behind the US in competitiveness and productivity. (14:35)
• Debt Brake Overturned:
  • Explains the controversial scrapping of Germany’s “debt brake” (constitutional budget limit) to invest in defense and infrastructure, despite being a fiscal conservative. (15:59)
  • “We know that we have to do much more...scaling up to 5% of our GDP...” (15:59, Merz)
• Domestic Modernization:
  • New ministry for digitization and modernization, headed by an industry expert. (16:46)
• Trade Tensions with the US:
  • Concern about threatened US tariffs (“30% is unacceptable. It’s killing our export industry”) but optimism for a negotiated solution. (12:05)

5. Migration and Political Stability

• Migration Pressures:
  • Merz declares Germany and Europe have reached their limit regarding uncontrolled migration (22:28).
  • Legal reforms planned to better criminalize and intercept people smuggling networks, with UK-Germany coordination. (21:50)
  • “When we come back to Parliament...we will be willing to change that.” (22:16, Merz)
• Rise of the Far Right:
  • Merz is adamant that strengthening the mainstream political center is essential to meet the challenge from the far right and left (26:21).
  • Takes seriously warnings from survivors of earlier dark chapters in German history about the persistence of anti-Semitism. (27:45)
• Internal EU Borders and Schengen:
  • Acknowledges risks if migration remains uncontrolled but pledges to protect Schengen free-movement while addressing the problem. (25:29)
  • “We are on a good way...my optimism is that we will tackle the problem.” (25:29, Merz)

6. Personal Reflections and Leadership Style

• The ‘Businessman Chancellor’:
  • Merz references his background as a corporate lawyer and business leader, favoring pragmatism and action over ideology. (11:13)
  • Compares political leadership to piloting: “For a pilot, it’s important to be always ahead of your aircraft…” (30:08)
• Relationship with Angela Merkel:
  • Respectful but marks a generational and personal shift (“Her time is over. My time is now.”) (30:33)
• Germany's Place in History and Europe:
  • Confident that today’s Germany can be a stronger force for freedom and democracy, emphasizing the changed world since reunification. (28:30)

7. Practical Hopes for the Treaty

• Everyday Impact:
  • Immediate improvements hoped for students and businesspeople, simplifying travel and cooperation post-Brexit. (33:25)
  • “Step by step moving forward. Yes.” (33:25)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On the new defence doctrine:

  • “We have to be able to defend ourselves, which is actually not the case...the threat is Russia...on our peace, on our freedom, on the political order of Europe.” (02:42, Merz)

• On US-Europe relations:

  • “At least [Trump] is not as clear and as committed as former US Presidents were...we are all looking for more independency from American defense.” (08:00, Merz)

• On Brexit and Continental Responsibility:

  • “If I were a Brit, a British citizen, I had voted to remain...We didn’t do enough to help them [the UK] come to a different referendum result.” (17:17, 19:55, Merz)

• On migration limits:

  • “We’ve reached the limit.” (22:28, Merz)
  • “Our communes are not able to bring these refugees to school, to hospitals...So the numbers are too high.” (24:34, Merz)

• On the far right:

  • “Let’s be optimistic that those who are in favor for a free and open society...are really having seen the challenges coming from the far right.” (26:38, Merz)
  • “This is our main task: to preserve Germany in the center of the political arena.” (27:45, Merz)

• On personal style:

  • “My approach to this conflict is quite simple. Keep calm and work on the issues.” (13:26, Merz)
  • “For a pilot, it’s important to be always ahead of your aircraft...always thinking ahead.” (30:08, Merz)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Germany’s Military and Security Doctrine: 01:55–06:29
• Transatlantic relations and European autonomy: 07:37–10:50
• Reflections on UK/EU relations and Brexit: 17:06–21:00
• Migration and Europe’s Political Future: 21:50–26:21
• The challenge of the far right in Germany: 26:21–28:30
• Personal leadership and outlook: 29:44–32:45
• Practical hopes for the UK-Germany Treaty: 33:07–33:54

Conclusion

Friedrich Merz outlines a decisive break with postwar orthodoxy: advocating for a militarily stronger, more autonomous Germany as American commitment wanes, closer UK-Germany ties to face common challenges, and urgent reforms to safeguard European prosperity and political stability. He presents himself as a pragmatic, future-facing leader, keen to act rather than simply debate—aware that history’s shadows, from Putin to populism, demand both vigilance and adaptation.