POLITICO Tech Podcast Summary

Episode: ‘Compute, not crude’: How American AI is defining the new Middle East
Release Date: May 15, 2025
Host: Stephen Overlea
Guest: Mohamed Salman, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, Washington, D.C.

1. Introduction

In this episode of POLITICO Tech, host Stephen Overlea explores the transformative shift in US-Gulf relations, emphasizing the pivotal role of artificial intelligence (AI) and technology in redefining economic and strategic partnerships in the Middle East.

2. Trump's Saudi Visit and Tech Dealings

Timing: [00:34]

Stephen Overlea opens the discussion by highlighting President Donald Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia. Unlike previous trips focused solely on business lunches, this visit was notable for the attendance of top executives from leading American tech companies such as OpenAI, IBM, Uber, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and Palantir. These gatherings signaled a monumental push toward tech-driven alliances, with announced deals valued at approximately $600 billion.

3. Shift in US-Gulf Relations towards AI and Compute

Timing: [02:17]

Mohamed Salman elaborates on the evolving dynamics between the US and Gulf nations. He states, “the relationship… since the mid 2010s have been pivoting radically towards AI and tech” ([02:17]). This shift moves the foundation of the partnership from traditional oil and security to data, microchips, and the essential energy powering AI technologies.

4. The Triangle of Compute: Ships, Data Centers, Energy

Timing: [03:30]

Salman introduces the concept of the "triangle of compute," comprising ships (for data transportation), data centers, and energy supply. He emphasizes, “Compute is the centerpiece for AI. This is what fuels the AI ecosystem” ([04:02]). The Gulf region, with its abundant and low-cost energy, significant capital investments, and access to maritime routes, emerges as a strategic hub for AI infrastructure development.

5. Mutual Benefits and Risks of Tech Investments

Timing: [08:47]

The conversation delves into the reciprocal advantages and potential drawbacks of these investments. Salman counters skepticism regarding the Gulf’s capacity to overlook human rights and other concerns by asserting the sheer scale of their capital and energy resources. He notes, “So if you are Sam Altman, you are of course looking for investors in building this massive infrastructure for OpenAI” ([05:40]).

Furthermore, Salman addresses the risks associated with export controls on sensitive technologies. He contends that even if restrictions are tightened, Gulf nations with substantial resources will find alternative means to access necessary technologies, albeit with reduced efficiency: “They're going to go elsewhere to get it. Not the same efficiency, not the same level of productivity, absolutely, I agree with that” ([12:28]).

6. Ambitions of Gulf Leaders in AI

Timing: [15:09]

Highlighting the ambitious agendas of Gulf leaders, Salman shares his firsthand observations: “I lived in Saudi Arabia for two years… their ambitions are really massive. I would say the sky is the limit is the the title of the game there” ([15:28]). The Gulf states are actively investing in AI hubs, cloud infrastructures, and educational programs to cultivate local talent and drive innovation.

7. US Competition with China in AI Ecosystem

Timing: [17:44]

Salman underscores the strategic competition between the US and China in the AI domain. He warns that the US must remain vigilant in aligning Gulf partnerships with its own AI stack to prevent China from dominating this critical technological frontier. “We should come to understanding that if we are not really humble about the way we're thinking about the tech competition, we actually might end up with a very small number of countries that align with our own global AI stack” ([19:46]).

8. The Role of US Presidential Leadership

Timing: [19:46]

Addressing the influence of President Trump on these developments, Salman acknowledges that while the trend towards tech-focused US-Gulf relations predates Trump, his administration has accelerated deal-making due to his leadership style. “The relationship has been going this way and is going to be a relationship that endures beyond whoever is in the White House” ([20:10]). Trump’s emphasis on securing substantial economic deals aligns well with the strategic interests of both American tech giants and Gulf investors.

9. Future of US-Gulf Tech Relations

Timing: [21:36]

Looking ahead, Salman anticipates further integration of the Gulf into the global AI and technology supply chains. He predicts a diversification away from East Asian dominance in ship manufacturing: “You're going to be looking for arrangements around diversifying the AI ecosystem and diversifying the ship manufacturing that you have different regions manufacturing some parts of the value chain of ships… the Gulf is going to be well placed to be part of this ship manufacturing value chain” ([23:32]).

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Salman emphasizing the strategic importance of the Gulf in the global AI landscape and the necessity for the US to foster strong, tech-centric alliances to remain competitive against China. The partnership between American tech firms and Gulf nations represents a fundamental shift in global economic and technological power structures, heralding a new era where compute, not crude, defines international relations in the Middle East.

Notable Quotes:

• Mohamed Salman [02:17]: “The relationship… since the mid 2010s have been pivoting radically towards AI and tech.”

• Mohamed Salman [04:02]: “Compute is the centerpiece for AI. This is what fuels the AI ecosystem.”

• Mohamed Salman [05:40]: “If you are Sam Altman, you are of course looking for investors in building this massive infrastructure for OpenAI.”

• Mohamed Salman [12:28]: “They're going to go elsewhere to get it. Not the same efficiency, not the same level of productivity, absolutely, I agree with that.”

• Mohamed Salman [15:28]: “Their ambitions are really massive. I would say the sky is the limit is the the title of the game there.”

• Mohamed Salman [19:46]: “We should come to understanding that if we are not really humble about the way we're thinking about the tech competition, we actually might end up with a very small number of countries that align with our own global AI stack.”

• Mohamed Salman [20:10]: “The relationship has been going this way and is going to be a relationship that endures beyond whoever is in the White House.”

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear understanding of the strategic interplay between American AI advancements and the emerging technological renaissance in the Middle East.