POLITICO Tech – Craig Newmark sees an AI bubble. It may not be a bust.
Date: December 4, 2025
Host: Stephen Overly
Guest: Craig Newmark (Founder of Craigslist, philanthropist)

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Stephen Overly sits down with Craig Newmark—Craigslist founder, philanthropist, and self-described nerd—on the sidelines of the Aspen Cyber Summit. Their wide-ranging conversation explores Newmark’s take on the current AI “bubble,” how emerging technologies are fueling new waves of fraud and disinformation, and the responsibilities of tech companies and philanthropists in shaping a safer and more trustworthy digital future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are We in an AI Bubble?

• Parallels to Dot Com Era: Newmark draws a comparison between today’s AI investment frenzy and the dot com bubble, highlighting both hype and unresolved dangers.

  • Notable Quote (Craig Newmark, 02:05):
    “I think we are seeing a bubble here because there’s a lot of issues which haven’t been addressed, like hallucinations which could get people hurt, or not seeing the right kind of guardrails but preventing deepfakes of all sorts.”

• Unique Threats from AI: He emphasizes specific risks:

  • Hallucinations (AI-generated false information)
  • Deepfakes capable of enabling scams and cyber breaches

• Personal Precautions:

  • Newmark humorously shares:
    “I’m worried about this to the extent that Mrs. Newmark and I have a safe word and now and then I remind her of it.” (Craig Newmark, 02:23)

2. Cybersecurity Basics for the AI Era

• Newmark’s Advice:

  • Pause and reflect—a behavioral check before responding to online requests can prevent many scams.
    • “When you think you’re being approached, pause and take maybe nine seconds to reflect on what’s happening. There’s behavioral work which suggests that if you do that, you’ll avoid some scams…” (Craig Newmark, 03:15)
  • Use available security tools: single sign-on, passkeys, multi-factor authentication, system updates
  • Focus on broad education: Public must see themselves as part of the solution

• Early Internet Observations:

  • Newmark witnessed abuse and fraud since the Internet’s inception and believes bad actors, though few in number, are increasingly active and damaging.

3. The Tech Industry’s Responsibility

• Expectations for Tech Companies:

  • Providers “should step up, act in goodwill and do what they can to prevent scams.” (Craig Newmark, 05:16)
  • Support real-time detection, participate in knowledge sharing through groups like the Global Signal Exchange
  • Use AI and LLMs (large language models) to improve fraud detection, but do so carefully to avoid arming scammers.

• Challenge of Staying Ahead:

  • “The bad guys will see what you’re doing and then develop countermeasures. … there’s more to be done and you just got to keep acting in good faith, build up trust and safety and do what you can.” (Craig Newmark, 07:38)

4. Transparency vs. Security: Publishing AI Models

• Open Source Cautiously:

  • Newmark supports releasing AI models (including code, weights, biases) openly, but with careful controls to avoid misuse.
    • “I’d like to see them publishing in open source mode … but in a very careful way. … We want to prevent bad guys from getting that.” (Craig Newmark, 08:38)

• Efficiency Matters:

  • Tech note: “You don’t have to compute things in 32 bit precision. 8 bit suffices right now. Thank you for letting me feel technical, right?” (Craig Newmark, 09:17)

5. Business Models, Profit, and Safety

• Are Profit and Safety at Odds?
  • Overly questions whether tech’s focus on profit undermines product safety.
  • Newmark’s take: Companies must act in good conscience, sometimes at the expense of profit.
    • Legal liability and insurance pressure may force companies to act in good faith if voluntary action lags.
    • “Unless a company is acting in good faith, there may be liability issues. … Insurance companies will say coverage may only be there if you act in good faith to protect your community.” (Craig Newmark, 10:25)

6. Combating the Lucrative Fraud Economy

• Industry Scale:
  • Overly references a Reuters report on Meta allegedly earning $16B from fraudulent ads.
    • Newmark doubles down: Big platforms need better spam/scam detection, with LLMs as a vital tool.

7. Philanthropy, Networks, and Legacy

• Newmark’s Philanthropic Approach:

  • Leverages a "network of networks" in his giving strategy, relying on experts: “Frankly, as a philanthropist, I don't know what I'm doing. But with a network of networks of people who do.” (Craig Newmark, 12:56)
  • Embraces "beginner's mind": “I'm keeping a permanent beginner's mind because I do have networks who are getting the job done for me so I can sink quietly into my dotage.” (Craig Newmark, 13:16)

• Desired Legacy:

  • Wants the internet to be safe and useful for all, stressing the importance of detection and user alerts for suspicious behavior.
  • “With the cooperation of good actors in an industry, ... the Internet can be a relatively safe place to get things done.” (Craig Newmark, 13:50)

8. Optimism for the Internet’s Future

• Fundamental Optimism:

  • “Most people are just fine. They’re okay. They just want a level playing field, a safe one where we can all work together.” (Craig Newmark, 14:54)

• Is Philanthropy a Permanent Need?

  • Cites a conversation with Valas Dar (McGovern Foundation); Newmark agrees philanthropy should, ideally, become unnecessary, but doubts it will happen within his lifetime due to persistent societal challenges.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[AI] hallucinations could get people hurt, or not seeing the right kind of guardrails but preventing deepfakes of all sorts.” (Craig Newmark, 02:08)

• “The basics are things like, well, most fundamental. When you think you’re being approached, pause and take maybe nine seconds to reflect on what's happening.” (Craig Newmark, 03:15)

• “[Bad actors] are very loud and very active. ... People of goodwill need to work together to fight bad actors.” (Craig Newmark, 03:56)

• “A nerd's gotta do what a nerd's gotta do.” (Craig Newmark, 06:51)

• “You don't want to tell the bad actors what you're doing to stop them because they are smart and they are adaptable.” (Craig Newmark, 08:13)

• “Unless a company is acting in good faith, there may be liability issues.” (Craig Newmark, 10:28)

• “Frankly, as a philanthropist, I don't know what I'm doing. But with a network of networks of people who do.” (Craig Newmark, 12:56)

• “Most people are just fine … They just want a level playing field, a safe one where we can all work together.” (Craig Newmark, 14:54)

• Sign-off: “Like the Batman says, I’m not the nerd you want, but I’m the nerd you got.” (Craig Newmark, 16:24)

Key Timestamps

• 02:05 – Newmark on AI bubble and risks (hallucinations, deepfakes)
• 03:02–03:45 – Cybersecurity basics and behavioral advice
• 04:49–05:15 – Tech industry responsibility for scams
• 05:15–08:34 – How tech giants and social media companies could address fraud
• 08:38 – Publishing AI models and safe open source
• 10:04 – Business models vs. safety and legal/insurance impacts
• 12:23–12:48 – Scale of fraud and need for better detection (referencing Meta/Reuters)
• 12:56–13:39 – Philanthropic approach and “network of networks”
• 13:50–14:54 – Legacy, impact, and optimism for safe internet
• 15:41 – Should philanthropy be temporary?
• 16:24 – Memorable “nerd you got” Batman quote and closing

Summary

Craig Newmark remains a keen observer and advocate for digital safety, calling out the AI hype cycle while insisting on the internet’s potential for good if industry players act in genuine good faith. By encouraging basic digital hygiene, urging responsible technology deployment, and leveraging philanthropic networks for long-term impact, he presses for collaborative solutions against the dark side of rapid innovation. Yet, a note of optimism pervades—a belief that with collective vigilance, the internet can remain a platform where “most people are just fine”—safe, empowered, and connected.