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- [00:01]
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- [00:37]
Stephen Overlee
Hey, welcome back to POLITICO Tech. I'm your host, Stephen Overlee. President Donald Trump was sworn into office just over 100 days ago. And you'll recall sitting a few rows behind him on Inauguration Day were top executives from the world's most powerful tech companies. Those tech leaders have been a regular presence ever since. Of course, Elon Musk hasn't left the president's side. But even others like Mark Zuckerberg at Meta and Tim Cook at Apple have spent the past few months courting Trump's favor. But the start of this administration has been rocky for tech. We've seen tariffs, antitrust trials, cuts to federal research. On the show today, POLITICO Tech reporter Brendan Bordelon joins me for a debrief on Trump's first 100 days and to look ahead at what's to come in the next 100. Here's our conversation. Brendan, welcome back to Politico Tech.
- [01:38]
Brendan Bordelon
Hey, Stephen, thanks for having me.
- [01:40]
Stephen Overlee
All right. We just crossed the 100 day mark of Trump's term in office. Are tech companies getting what they wanted?
- [01:46]
Brendan Bordelon
In some ways, yes, and in some ways, no. So in terms of deregulation, the tech companies are certainly getting what they wanted. I think the Trump administration is very open about the fact that they are not interested in regulating wide swaths of the economy to include the tech sector. In terms of certainty, in terms of, I think stability, which is very key to business and industry, not at all. I think actually this is sort of A5 alarm fire for the tech industry and industry writ large when it comes to things I think they've often taken for granted, like the ability to have access to foreign goods or the ability to know that the stock market's not going to collapse overnight. So it is definitely a mixed bag. But I think overall the tech industry, like many of the industries, are quite disappointed. You know, I talked to lobbyists right after Trump was elected. There was almost like an ebullience, you know, this like joy that after The Biden era, where I think a lot of the tech industry felt like they were being stifled and stymied, things were going to be different now and where they would open up, that has not happened. And I think that folks across the tech sector are quite nervous about what's to come.
- [02:46]
Stephen Overlee
Right. I mean, so much of tech's fortunes right now are tied to things that are not tech policy, but nevertheless have like a direct impact on their business. And I want to talk tariffs and the economy because again, that's not tech specific, but these companies and their very rich CEOs have been directly affected nevertheless. How are you sizing up the impact of that?
- [03:08]
Brendan Bordelon
Sure. I mean, so there's a few sort of buckets where the tariffs can have a big impact. Obviously finished goods sent from other countries, China in particular, and I think the poster child of that is the iPhone. Famously, Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, was able to finagle an exemption from the Trump administration for a little while for from some of those electronics being sent from China. We'll see how long that lasts. I think writ large. Obviously, folks are very worried about a variety of electronics being shipped from foreign countries that are potentially going to be hit with tariffs if they don't already have tariffs already. That could include semiconductors. The Trump administration is talking about sort of a separate electronic and semiconductor specific set of tariffs that could come down the pike. Again, this sort of plays into the uncertainty. Nobody really knows when or if those are coming, which makes it very hard to frankly plan, which is pretty essential for any major international business. I think inputs as well are a big issue. I think one of the strange things about these tariffs is they also at times have applied to the inputs. So things that you send in to manufacture tech products, I think the Trump administration wants to manufacture in this country, but some of the tech industry is like, well, we can't do that without the little widgets that we need from China and everywhere else around the world. So. And then interestingly, you know, for the AI ambitions, I think the tariffs also could have an impact, a deleterious impact there. So, you know, there's a lot of widgets and other things that go into building out the electric grid. Our colleague Gabby Miller has actually done a really good job reporting on this with the Canada and Mexico tariffs in particular, there's a lot of transformers and other sort of electrical products that are used to build out the electric grid, which the AI industry says is key to its progress. Those come from Mexico, those come from other countries. They're not really Built here. So. So if the AI industry wants to see this surge in power generation in a more reliable electric grid, the tariffs are also putting that at risk. So, lot of different ways that it could have an impact and nothing is particularly good in terms of the tech industry's point of view here at the moment.
- [05:06]
Stephen Overlee
Yeah, like you said, the tech industry is kind of being hit from a few different angles by these tariffs, even though, with the exception of China, a lot of them have been suspended in many ways. That just kind of sets up the next 100 days to be like this big trade fight over semiconductors, over imports. And, you know, for some of these tech companies, Apple again, being a poster child, it's like forcing them to reconsider their supply chains. You know, Apple has moved some of its iPhone production from China to India, for instance, so it seems like set off a scramble of sorts for the tech industry.
- [05:39]
Brendan Bordelon
Sure. You know, India could also get hit with tariffs, potentially. I think there's an open question. I don't know where we are on the 90 days. I can't keep track anymore. But what we're, you know, two weeks down from that. So there's only two plus months left before the pause is theoretically over. And I think that's why, you know, to your point, they're trying to move their supply chains, but that takes a long time. It takes less time to just pick up the phone, call the White House, try to get an exemption. And I think that's certainly what all these companies are doing. It's what their lobbyists are doing. Even there, though, there is an issue because you can't really go through the usual channels with the Trump administration. Lobbyists have complained to me and Gabby and basically all of our colleagues about this. Basically, the folks you usually talk to aren't picking up the phone. What you have to do is go over the top to the President, to the Commerce Secretary, to some other high profile figure. So you basically got to get your CEO to kiss the ring, essentially, which these guys are willing to do and they've been doing. But it frustrates the government affairs people to no end in D.C. that they can't really go through the usual channels. And that is being felt on tariffs and on a wide variety of other issues.
- [06:42]
Stephen Overlee
Yeah. There's a reason that Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook and others have been at the White House a couple of times in these first 100 days. Right. They are now the lobbyists for their companies. The other sweeping change we've seen in this first 100 days is Doge, I mean, in terms of impact on Washington, there's probably been no greater impact than DOGE in terms of, you know, people being laid off, budgets being cut. And that has hit agencies that are critical to tech. How much do you think DOGE has changed the game for tech in Washington in just this first 100 days?
- [07:14]
Brendan Bordelon
I think it's hard to measure the long term policy impacts, which I think are ultimately going to be where the impact on the tech sector is most acutely felt. And interestingly, I'm not hearing companies talk about this a lot, but when you see the cuts that they're making to science and technology research, slashing, you know, the National Science Foundation's budget, going after a bunch of different research projects and research grant money. I have heard from the industry for years and years that the federal science apparatus is the best in the world. And this is fundamental. We don't do basic research as companies. Applied research is where we shine. But we need this basic research in order to continue to succeed, both on a company by company basis and industry wide. It does seem like that's between the cuts to research and development and the attacks frankly on the universities and international students. It seems like that's all at risk of kind of going away. That is largely, seems to me, DOGE driven. So I could see a really long term impact there. The short term impacts are not, I think as acute from the industry perspective. Actually. I think you and I may have talked about this before, but I know that we've both talked to folks in industry that feel like there are some opportunities here, particularly like the software lobby sees a chance to come in. Yeah. To these agencies and replace the people that were fired. Right. With AI tools or sort of other products. I haven't really seen that borne out yet. And when I talked to folks six, seven weeks ago, some lobbyists from these big software companies, they were like, we're going to wait and see if we can get in. They're in slash and burn mode right now. They're not in build the agencies back up. So remains to be seen if there's some short term benefits to the software industry in particular if they can sort of fill the gaps that DOGE has left at these agencies long term, I do think it's going to have some pretty negative impacts by the company's own admission. They always talk about how great R and D is. It'll be interesting to see how they handle a much shrunken federal R and D apparatus which seems to be the outcome of all of these cuts.
- [09:07]
Stephen Overlee
Yeah. A lot of folks I talked to are hopeful that at some point there's going to be this turn where we pivot from cutting and burning everything to the ground and instead invest in technology, especially to make things more efficient and streamlined. And so far that turn has not happened. But it was interesting. You said we haven't seen a lot of pushback from tech on that. And that is something that has really been on my mind these last 100 days. Like the battles that tech is not fighting. And so like the defending research, funding, immigration in the environment, like these are big issues that tech has long cared about and in the past would have pushed back against some of these changes. We just have not seen that so far in this Trump administration.
- [09:52]
Brendan Bordelon
Yeah. And it's strange on immigration, especially readers may remember and listeners may remember that in December, Elon Musk, the doge father, was talking up how essential immigration policy was going to be to this new administration, particularly when it came. Obviously immigration is essential to this administration, but on high skilled immigration, science, technology, engineering folks who are sort of at the cutting edge of these fields, they were actually going to open the gates for these guys. They felt like there should be an easier pathway to green card status. There should be more H1B visas, visas for high skilled laborers in the tech sector. This is something that Musk in particular has relied on a lot to sort of pad out his companies with talent. He fought with a bunch of the nativists in his party in December on Twitter, I think it was on Christmas Day on X, excuse me. And they were just sort of back and forth on this. And interestingly, we haven't seen any sort of push since Trump took office to grease the skids for high skilled immigration. Elon Musk's attention obviously seems to be elsewhere and you don't really see the tech lobby pushing that either, which I guess I understand immigration is sort of a third rail right now, even on the, on the high skilled side. But yeah, I mean, to your point, the tech lobby seems like, I think, you know, like many lobbies in Washington right now afraid of pushing too hard. I think the biggest issue is companies needing to move sort of in lockstep and not sticking their neck out. Because I think if one company comes out and says, hey, where's the high skilled immigration fix you guys promised? They risk the White House, sire, and maybe getting their hedge chopped off. So I think a lot of. And that's true on a lot of issues right now. So to your point about them not pushing on certain things, I don't think it means that they don't care. And I don't even think it means that they aren't actually pushing. But they have to do so much more quietly and cautiously than they have in the past. And it makes it harder for us to see, even as reporters, even with us, they're a little bit more tight lipped than they've been in the past and obviously are less willing to make big proclamations out in public when they might earn the wrath of the Trump administration in response.
- [11:52]
Stephen Overlee
Yeah, years ago I had a tech lobbyist tell me that essentially strategy in lobbying boils down to companies either wanting to be feared or wanting to be loved. And I feel like everyone's trying to go the love route so far in this administration and trying to like, really cozy up and really remain on friendly terms in hopes that that is what's ultimately going to get them the policy they want in the long term. But I think way too early to tell, only 100 days in if that strategy is going to play out.
- [12:21]
Brendan Bordelon
Definitely.
- [12:28]
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- [12:58]
Stephen Overlee
The other big headline and you've been covering this are these antitrust trials that are going on right now against Meta and against Google, which these are not new. They were initiated back under Trump 1.0 and it seems like his second administration now is going to see them come to fruition. Do you think these cases are going to define Trump's big tech legacy?
- [13:20]
Brendan Bordelon
Yeah, I think they're going to be a big part of that legacy. But it's very much an open question what that legacy will be. So obviously these cases are being pursued. Both would essentially lead to the breakup of these companies, Meta and Google, in slightly different ways. And it's unclear the extent to which Google would actually be broken up because the DOJ at the moment is like, well, we might not go after Android, the operating system. We'll see how things go. Obviously these are bipartisan. Both of these cases were pursued under the Biden administration with much vigor, actually, and they're continuing to be pursued by Trump's antitrust enforcers. Trump has no love lost between these companies, although I think with Meta in particular, they have kind of buried the hatchet. Mark Zuckerberg, the Meta CEO, has been to the White House repeatedly and his company has caved on a variety of issues actually to make its platforms a friendlier place, I guess, for conservative or Republican content. And that, I think, is where the legacy could go one of two ways. Trump could continue to keep his antitrust enforcers on these companies, or he could pull back. And he could pull back in a variety of ways. Zuckerberg has, we've reported, other outlets have reported that Zuckerberg is explicitly working to get the president himself to pull his antitrust enforcers back. On this case, usually that would not be possible, but Trump has exerted tremendous authority over agencies that and sub agencies that usually were seen as independent. The FTC is probably the biggest example of this, and they're the ones leading the trial against Meta. If there's sort of a quid pro quo there down the line, and it could come in the settlement phase, it could come in the, if there is a settlement, it could come in the remedies phase for either of these big companies, you know, you just get a slap on the wrist instead of a breakup. I think his legacy, the President's legacy will look quite different. You know, it'll look like, again, a quid pro quo here where, you know, you do something on your platforms to make them much friendly, friendlier to me and much friendlier to my team, and I'll make sure that the antitrust agencies go easy on you. That continues to be a serious concern or opportunity, I guess, if you are within the White House or on the Republican side, depending on who you talk to. So we're just going to have to see how that plays out. These trials take a while. The companies, the big companies, are continuing to lobby. Apple and Amazon have their trials coming either later this year or next year. So I think everyone, like you said, these CEOs are the lobbyists for their companies now. And I think they're going to be going directly to the President on this issue, the antitrust issue, as on many other issues.
- [15:41]
Stephen Overlee
I mean, it's not lost on me that we've gotten through most of this conversation and haven't touched on tech specific policy. And that's just because it has been light, I would say, in these first 100 days. The one exception is maybe artificial intelligence. I mean, we've seen the Trump administration, you know, revoke Biden's executive order and start laying the groundwork to put its own kind of policy in place. I'm not sure I'd consider that a major change. But I'm curious what you're watching for, what these 100 days have set us up for on the AI front.
- [16:12]
Brendan Bordelon
Yeah, so the Trump administration is going to release an AI action plan, which that the AI lobby thinks is basically going to give Congress marching orders on and sort of set the course for the rest of at least this legislative cycle. That doesn't come out until July. But we do know what industry wants, and I think they're likely to get it insofar as they want very light regulation, if any regulation on AI. The folks who have staffed up the administration strongly suggest that that is going to be the case. There's not going to be a major effort to regulate AI like there was at least on paper, last legislative cycle led by Chuck Schumer and some other lawmakers. Your mileage may vary on how serious of an effort that was, but I don't think we're going to see anything like that this year. The one exception might be the tech lobby really is concerned about AI laws coming out of the states. California is usually the first mover here, but you also see states like New York, Illinois looking at regulation and new rules around frontier models. This often happens when D.C. doesn't move on tech. The states kind of fill the vacuum. And so there's kind of this conundrum here because on the one hand, they don't want any regulation, including from Washington, but they might need some regulation in order to block the states. Right. If you can't, it's hard to preempt a state law with nothing. Right. So we could see that happening in the next few months. But I don't think anything's going to move until the action plan comes out in July. So we'll have to keep an eye out for that. But I do think you're going to see the company is moving, moving to push Washington to preempt the states on the sooner side. It's a little bit existential for them. That's how they frame it for me at least.
- [17:45]
Stephen Overlee
Well, listen, so the next 100 days, if I look ahead, I mean, we've got tariff trade agreements to reach, there's the AI policy to hammer out. Obviously, these antitrust trials are going to continue. What else are you watching in the next 100 days?
- [18:03]
Brendan Bordelon
Yeah, well, you know, frankly, mostly my new baby. I'm actually going to be on paternity leave all summer because my wife and I had a baby in January and I took Some taking my leave in two breaks. So you guys have fun with watching all this the next hundred days. But more seriously, so, you know, obviously we will be watching to see how the tariffs impact the industry writ large. We didn't talk about this, but TikTok continues to be sort of like out there in the wind, I think. What, we have a, a 90 day extension on that too or something like that. And you know that's going to hit in the next hundred days. That seems tied to the tariff conversation and the trade conversation. China will not release TikTok and let the White House make a deal on that until that's resolved. So we'll see where that goes. Again, worth noting that the Trump administration is just openly flouting the TikTok ban law at this point. But that's where we are. And I'm interested to see if immigration ever comes back up right. You know, Elon Musk said that was going to be a priority. We're in basically in May now. It hasn't gone anywhere. Some legislators have started talking about ways that they can grease the skids for high skilled immigration on Capitol Hill, but remains to be seen whether there's any movement there. I do think you probably need to start seeing some movement in the next 100 days or it's going to be a dead letter.
- [19:16]
Stephen Overlee
Well, you enjoy your parental leave while the rest of us are left here wading through all that. Listen, Brendan, appreciate you being here on Politico Tech.
- [19:24]
Brendan Bordelon
Yeah, thanks so much for having me, Steven.
- [19:27]
Stephen Overlee
That's all for this week's Politico Tech. You'll now be hearing new episodes of Politico Tech every Thursday. So be sure to subscribe and come back next week. And for more tech news, subscribe to our newsletters, Digital Future Daily and Morning Tech. Music in our show comes from the mysterious Brakemaster cylinder. Our producer is Nirmo Malaiko. I'm Stephen Overleigh. See you back here next week.