Podcast Summary: Politics Weekly UK

Episode: Labour collapse in Caerphilly: the byelection that points to the future of UK politics
Date: October 22, 2025
Host: The Guardian (John Harris)
Guests: Pippa Crerar (political editor), Kieran Stacey (policy editor)

Overview

This episode delves into the seismic shifts underway in UK politics, focusing sharply on the potentially historic by-election in Caerphilly, South Wales—a previously rock-solid Labour heartland. John Harris and Kieran Stacey explore signs of Labour’s collapse in Wales, the surge of Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, and what this foreshadows for the broader national political landscape. Later, the episode examines growing turmoil within the government’s grooming gangs inquiry, marked by survivor resignations and escalating political controversy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Caerphilly By-Election: A Tipping Point?

[01:13–04:01]

• Backdrop: Labour has long dominated Caerphilly and much of Wales (“The party hasn’t lost a Senate election since Welsh Devolution started in 1999... held the Westminster seat for 100 years.” – John Harris, 02:29).
• Current Landscape: Labour facing collapse—with polls showing Reform UK and Plaid Cymru surging (Reform UK 42%, Plaid 38%, Labour just 12%—Kieran Stacey, 05:07).
• Local Frustrations: Driving the shift are issues like deteriorating public services, difficulty accessing GPs, rising taxes with fewer benefits, and the sense Labour governs at every level but delivers little.
  • “You pay more and get less.” – Richard Gerner (Caerphilly Observer), 06:13
• Anecdotal Evidence: On the ground, Plaid is positioned as the tactical vote for those wanting to block Reform UK, capitalizing on Labour’s apparent softness.

2. Deeper Political Realignment

[06:27–12:25]

• Short-Term and Structural Problems: Labour’s woes are seen as both immediate (social media-fueled fragmentation, culture war issues) and deep-rooted (erosion of mining, unions, and churches that forged Labour loyalty).
  • “Everything that made those places Labour heartlands isn’t there anymore.” – John Harris, 07:33
• Brexit’s Legacy: Brexit sentiment remains potent—Wales voted Leave, and recent governmental debates about Brexit’s impact potentially alienate Labour’s base.
  • “Are they going to turn around and say can you please stop blaming us for the mess you’ve got us into?” – John Harris, 08:23

3. The Binary Contest: Immigration, Division, and Reform

[12:25–19:01]

• Main Campaign Issues: Immigration and asylum dominate, turbocharged by Reform UK’s campaign against the Welsh Nation of Sanctuary scheme.
  • “There’s lots of terms being bandied about, like, ‘oh, you’re racist because you support this party,’ or ‘extreme left Marxist…’ It doesn’t seem to be any sort of middle ground anymore.” – Richard Gerner, 13:21
• Personal Consequences: Local immigrant business owners, like Adam from Kurdistan, report experiencing newfound fear and xenophobia since Reform UK’s surge and Farage’s TV comments.
  • “I feel like when I first come [to the UK]. ...Very recently in the last few weeks, since Nigel Farage came on TV, say about refugees. Everything changed.” – Adam, vape shop owner, 14:40
• Atmosphere: Parallels with the angry, polarized climate of the 2016 Brexit referendum—“A binary contest with immigration and asylum right in the foreground… like the Brexit referendum in 2016.” – Kieran Stacey, 16:21

4. Broader Implications for Labour and UK Politics

[19:01–19:08]

• Leadership Anxieties: Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are closely monitoring turnout, especially among previously non-voting groups, as Reform UK energizes the disengaged. Labour is now urgently canvassing non-voters.
  • “Number 10 have suddenly panicked... there may well be a big turnout from non-voters at the next election.” – John Harris, 10:29
• Potential Overreactions: Westminster is primed to overinterpret the by-election—if Reform wins, right-wing voices will push for Labour to stay centrist; if Plaid wins, the left will argue Labour’s losing progressive voters.
  • “In politics, often it’s just like the headline winner that you remember, you don’t necessarily remember just how close it was.” – John Harris, 11:56

The Grooming Gangs Inquiry: Mounting Crisis

[21:09–33:28]

1. Survivor Resignations & Political Fallout

[21:09–24:34]

• Resignations: Four survivor panel members quit, citing feelings of being sidelined and concerns that the inquiry’s scope is being deliberately widened to avoid uncomfortable issues (notably Labour council failures and perpetrators’ ethnicity).
  • “Being dismissed and contradicted by a minister... takes you right back to that feeling of not being believed all over again.” – Fiona, survivor (as relayed at PMQs), 23:48
• Government Denials: Ministers, including Jess Phillips and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmoud, firmly deny accusations of scope dilution.
  • “The inquiry will remain laser focused on grooming gangs, as Baroness Casey recommended.” – (Paraphrased government position)

2. Process and Communication Issues

[24:34–27:59]

• Inquiry Frustrations: Survivors object to being sent questionnaires that suggest broadening the inquiry, fearing key issues will be watered down.
• Political Reality: Government wants to avoid an inquiry focusing entirely on ethnicity, aware it’s a toxic debate Reform would exploit; survivors, however, feel let down.
  • “If you’re going to go out there and say allegations are false, you better be pretty sure of your facts, especially on something as sensitive as this.” – John Harris, 26:00
• Bureaucracy vs. Humanity: The slow, bureaucratic nature of public inquiries can inadvertently retraumatize survivors.

3. Leadership and the Inquiry’s Future

[27:59–31:57]

• Chair Appointment Delays: No chair yet found for the inquiry; Louise Casey has been brought in as “troubleshooter,” signaling severity of the crisis.
  • “Louise Casey gets brought in whenever Keir Starmer feels like he’s in trouble and the politics have all got quite complicated.” – John Harris, 28:31
• Political Game: The inquiry will become a political football for opposition politicians, especially Reform and the right of the Conservatives.
  • “You can certainly imagine whenever this inquiry gets going, Robert Jenrick and Nigel Farage absolutely making statements about it almost every single day…” – John Harris, 29:53

4. PMQs and Political Knockabout

[31:57–33:00]

• Heated Exchanges: Kemi Badenoch uses survivor resignations to attack the government in Parliament, amid accusations of over-politicizing a sensitive topic.
• Labour’s Response: Starmer remains calm and legalistic, but Government faces accusations of “briefing against” victims.
  • “That was the moment at which people in the chamber thought maybe she’s pushed the argument a little too far. I can’t quite justify that one.” – John Harris, 31:07

5. Labour Party Deputy Leadership Race

[32:00–33:28]

• Impending Contest Result: As the episode closes, speculation turns to the Labour deputy leadership contest between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. Likely winner, Lucy Powell, will not have a major government role and remains on the periphery of real Cabinet power.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“You pay more and get less.”
— Richard Gerner, Caerphilly Observer co-founder ([06:13])

“Everything that made those places Labour heartlands isn’t there anymore.”
— John Harris ([07:33])

“There doesn’t seem to be any sort of middle ground anymore.”
— Richard Gerner ([13:21])

“I feel like when I first come. ...Very recently, in the last few weeks, since Nigel Farage came on TV, say about refugees. Everything changed.”
— Adam, Kurdistani shop owner ([14:40])

“We had that blip with Trump, but now we’re back to kind of professional politicians… I wonder whether we’re going to feel a little bit similar after the next election. …Was this period of Labour government just a blip?”
— John Harris ([17:11])

“Number 10 have suddenly panicked... there may well be a big turnout from non-voters at the next election.”
— John Harris ([10:29])

“Being dismissed and contradicted by a minister... takes you right back to that feeling of not being believed all over again.”
— Fiona, survivor (via Kemi Badenoch at PMQs, [23:48])

Timestamps for Key Sections

• Caerphilly By-Election & Local Disaffection: [01:13–06:27]
• Labour’s Structural Decline: [06:27–08:23]
• Brexit, Reform UK, and Culture Wars: [08:23–12:25]
• Immigration and Rising Polarisation: [12:25–19:08]
• Grooming Gangs Inquiry Crisis: [21:09–31:57]
• Labour Deputy Leadership Race: [32:00–33:28]

Conclusion

This episode underscores how local disillusionment and national fragmentation threaten Labour’s historic dominance in its Welsh heartlands, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru gaining rapidly. The Caerphilly by-election is painted as a microcosm of huge, culture-war inflected shifts across the UK—echoing Brexit, powered by social media, and marked by human consequences on the ground. Meanwhile, the grooming gangs inquiry highlights the complex collision of political management and survivor expectation, inflaming already febrile tensions. As political divisions intensify, this moment feels less an aberration than the shape of things to come.