How to Prioritize Preps: The Top 3 High Probability Emergencies to Plan for First

Summary

Podcast Summary: Practical Prepping Podcast —

Episode: How to Prioritize Preps: The Top 3 High Probability Emergencies to Plan for First
Date: February 17, 2026
Hosts: Mark & Krista Lawley

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on helping new and seasoned preppers alike to zero in on the most probable emergencies they may face, encouraging a shift from sensational, low-likelihood scenarios (like apocalyptic collapse) to real-life events such as weather disruptions, job losses, and short-term emergencies. Mark and Krista break down the essentials of developing a practical prepper mindset, conducting a realistic risk assessment, and building a layered, prioritized preparedness plan starting with everyday threats.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Practical Preparedness Over Doomsday Thinking

• Prepping is not about “zombie invasions,” but everyday realities:
  • "Real preparedness looks much less dramatic and far more practical. Having extra food and water on hand for a winter storm, or keeping flashlights and batteries ready for a power outage..." (A, 00:02)
  • The hosts frame prepping as a responsible, stress-reducing lifestyle rather than a fear-driven one.

2. The Foundation: The Prepper Mindset

• Prepper mindset is proactive, not paranoid:
  • “It’s not a state of chronic fear or paranoia. Rather, it’s a proactive lifestyle choice that seeks to replace panic with peace of mind through preparation.” (A, 03:02)
• Key traits of the prepper mindset:
  • Self-reliance over dependence on government/external systems.
  • Prioritizing knowledge over accumulating gear.
    • "The more you know, the less you have to carry." (B, 03:57)
    • Buying gear (like radios) without learning to use it renders it useless. (B & A, 04:22–04:53)
  • Proactive preparedness: identifying and addressing problems before they arise.
  • Maintaining calmness and flexibility under pressure.
    • “Flexibility may be too stiff in a changing crisis. I said this, I coined this phrase: be fluid because flexibility may be too stiff.” (A, 10:58)
  • Use visualization and stress management (e.g., box breathing) to build resilience.
  • Overcoming “normalcy bias”—the belief that if something hasn’t happened before, it never will.
    • “That’s the dangerous tendency to believe that because a disaster hasn’t happened to you before, it never will.” (A, 06:50)

Memorable Quotes

• "If you've got a plan, it's just another Tuesday." (A, 06:31)
• "Be fluid because flexibility may be too stiff." (A, 10:58)

3. Conducting a Realistic Risk Assessment (11:46)

• Identify realistic, region-specific threats.
  • Natural disasters (tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards) vary by region.
    • "Our Montana friends have to focus on blizzards, but our Florida group has to focus on hurricanes." (B, 12:25)
  • Man-made hazards: proximity to factories, railroads, chemical plants.
    • The Lawleys share their own plan for possible toxic spills near their home. (A & B, 13:06–13:20)
  • Societal/economic risks: power outages, supply chain disruption, civil unrest.
  • Personal vulnerabilities: age, health, dependent family members, pets, resource dependencies.
    • “Your needs are different than my needs. There’s physical factors…We need to be honest about our strength and about our health conditions at 68.” (A, 13:55–14:20)

4. Prioritizing: Probability over Hollywood Drama

• Avoid “priority inversion”:
  • Preppers often obsess over rare, catastrophic events (e.g., EMPs, societal collapse) and neglect high-probability, everyday emergencies.
• The “Bullseye” Model of Threat Prioritization (17:46):
  • Bullseye (Center): Guaranteed events (seasonal weather, typical local threats).
    • “Guarantee you it’s going to be hot in Alabama in August... we will have some tornado watches and warnings…” (A, 17:54–18:23)
  • 2nd Ring: Highly probable but not annual (regional storms, hurricanes).
  • 3rd Ring: Unusual, generational but possible (100-year floods, extreme cold in southern states).
  • 4th Ring: Catastrophic but low-probability (EMPs, major asteroid impact).
• Preparation strategy:
  • "Base your initial plan on your top three most likely events that you could face. That is not asteroid strike…It's probably got something to do with weather, jobs, health, financial." (A, 17:19)

5. Addressing “Personal SHTF” Events

• SHTF (“Stuff Hits The Fan”) can be personal, not just global:
  • “It could be the death of a spouse, it could be a house fire, it could be a sudden disability, it could be a job loss. It's anything that's a devastating impact on your specific household, even when the rest of the world remains normal.” (A, 21:44)
• Don’t overlook the trauma of personal crises in prepping (deaths, medical emergencies, job loss).

6. Steps for Listeners (Actionable Advice)

• Start by listing the top three most likely threats for your region/lifestyle.
• Design and rehearse emergency plans for those.
  • “Start with your list with the top three most likely events that you could face where you're living today… and build your plan around those first and get that solid in your mind.” (B, 23:36)
• Progress beyond, only after core threats are covered (move from 72-hour preparedness to weeks/months).
• Remember: "Prepping is a journey, it's not a destination." (B, 24:01)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• "The more you know, the less you have to carry." — Krista (03:57)
• "If you've got a plan, it's just another Tuesday." — Mark (06:31)
• "That’s the dangerous tendency to believe that because a disaster hasn’t happened to you before, it never will." — Mark (06:50)
• "I call it breathing soup." — Krista (18:19)
• "Be fluid because flexibility may be too stiff." — Mark (10:58)
• "You may have to abandon a plan that's not working and…pivot to a plan B or a plan C. Pivot, Pivot, pivot. Yep, you're thinking of that Friends episode." — Mark & Krista (11:08–11:31)
• "It's not fear driven, it's responsibility driven." — Mark (00:54)
• "Prepping is a journey, it's not a destination." — Krista (24:01)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:02–01:13 Introduction to practical prepping and responsible mindset
• 03:02–05:58 Traits of a prepper mindset, knowledge vs. gear, proactive preparedness
• 06:40–10:48 Overcoming normalcy bias and visualizing success, stress management
• 11:46–15:29 How to conduct a realistic risk assessment; assessing personal vulnerabilities
• 16:10–17:46 Priority inversion and focusing on “high probability” threats
• 17:46–21:28 The “Bullseye” model of preparedness planning
• 21:29–24:22 The reality of personal SHTF events and recapping practical steps

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Takeaway

Practical prepping means focusing energy and resources on the emergencies you’re most likely to face—weather events, job loss, or medical issues—rather than fixating on improbable, catastrophic disasters. Success starts with mindset, honest risk assessment, and building step-by-step proficiency and resilience around real-world, high-probability threats.

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Final Advice:
"Stuff happens, my friends. Stay prepared." — Krista (24:46)

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For detailed notes and resources, visit: practicalprepping.info/542

Transcript

[A]

It's a relief to see more people realizing that prepping isn't about doomsday bunkers or zombie invasions. It's about being ready for the ordinary emergencies of life. Real preparedness looks much less dramatic and far more practical. Having extra food and water on hand for a winter storm, or keeping flashlights and batteries ready for a power outage, or maintaining an emergency fund for unexpected expenses, or knowing basic first aid for when someone gets hurt. These are the situations most of us are far more likely to face than any Hollywood style catastrophe. Prepping at its core is about reducing stress, increasing resilience, and protecting the people we care about when the normal systems are temporarily disrupted. It's not fear driven, it's responsibility driven.

[B]

Welcome to Practical Prepping. Today is February 16, 2026 and this is episode 542. This is the prepping podcast with no bunkers, no zombies and no alien invasions. Just practical prepping where we teach everyday people how to prepare for life's emergencies, disasters and crises. And we're here to help you get prepared. Hi guys, I'm Krista.

[A]

And I'm Mark. And if you'd like the expanded notes for this episode, go to practicalprepping.info 542. We did an audience survey some months ago and thank you to those of you who participated. One of the things that came up is how many new preppers come to the podcast and really need to know some basic foundational things about prepping. With that in mind, this week and next week we're taking a new look at getting started in prepping. This week we will be covering planning our prepping, our I know that's not one of the sexy topics in prepping, but it's foundational to good prepping. Next week we'll cover protection and provisions in our prepping.

[B]

So let's get started. The foundation of any sane preparedness strategy is the survival mindset and a realistic risk assessment. So before you go spending your money on gear, you have to identify the high probability threats and in your specific area, whether that's tornadoes in the south of United States or blizzards in the northern parts of the United States, or personal crises like a job loss, a death in the family, or illness or prolonged injury.

[A]

And it starts with a prepper mindset. And this is the foundational mental approach to life that's characterized by personal responsibility, self reliance, and the consistent expectation that stuff happens. It's not a state of chronic fear or paranoia. Rather, it's a proactive lifestyle choice that seeks to replace panic with peace of mind through preparation.

[B]

And we have definitely lived those days.

[A]

We have for sure. So the question is just what is, is a proper mindset? Well, there's some characteristics to it.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Self reliance over dependence.

[B]

Perfect.

[A]

The decision to provide for yourself and your family and not to be dependent on the government or external systems.

[B]

That is very good. Self reliance is probably very key. And you've got to just incorporate that in your personality. And I'm going to also put in there that knowledge over having or possessing gear, because you've said this a lot of times, gear is good. In fact, gear is great. But knowledge is better because the more you know, the less you have to carry.

[A]

Gear just makes it much more convenient.

[B]

Well, it does, but you know, too often people just, they'll run out there and they'll buy all this gear with the just in case mentality and they never practice with it. You remember when bao fang handheld ham radios came into being? People ran out and they were buying these bao fang radios because they're darn.

[A]

Inexpensive and really, really good and they're still buying them.

[B]

But they never cracked open a ham radio book. They didn't test. They don't have a license. They just have it thinking that, well, if I ever need it, there it is.

[A]

And they never learned to use it.

[B]

It becomes a paperweight.

[A]

It's going to be a paperweight. Exactly.

[B]

So you got to get knowledge. Knowledge of your gear is going to replace a lot of extraneous stuff, you know, that you have to carry.

[A]

It's also a characteristic of proactive preparedness. Now this involves identifying potential problems now and solving them before they occur in the future.

[B]

Yes. And also having a sense of calmness under the pressure, the ability to try to keep a cool head when everything seems to be just falling apart around you. You have to mentally prepare for that moment and realize that you've got to maintain that co calm demeanor. You know, we talked a few episodes back about how to handle that emergency when it comes your way. And keeping your cool head helps you work your plan and plan your work when it comes to preparedness. So when the rest of the world is in chaos, you can forge ahead with some assurance and some preparedness and eventually solving the problems that are coming your way.

[A]

And when we're talking about when everything's in chaos, we're talking about maybe it's just the power is out in the neighborhood.

[B]

Neighborhood, yeah, sure.

[A]

Something half ice storm drunk took out a pole.

[B]

That's happened.

[A]

And yeah, I've seen more than once on Both of those. But the entire neighborhood is without power for some extended period of time. True. We're talking about the chaos. It just threw your life into a bit of chaos.

[B]

Yeah. Unless you have a lights out plan and then you are good.

[A]

Right. If you've got a plan, it's just another Tuesday.

[B]

Exactly.

[A]

Now let's talk about how we develop a prepper mindset.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

First we overcome normalcy bias.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And the first step is recognizing normalcy bias.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And that's the dangerous tendency to believe that because a disaster hasn't happened to you before, it never will.

[B]

I've actually had people say that to me and you just sort of look at them like, really? I mean, people have said, hey, I've never been in a tornado before. It doesn't mean you're not gonna ever be in one.

[A]

Well, I made my first 31 years without going through one, and then I went through two in a week.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. It's like you were overdue or something.

[A]

I was overdue, but you know, it's that it never happens to me. Or when they talk about a major snow coming. Well, they never get it right.

[B]

Yeah, that's never happened here before.

[A]

Never happens. It's always gone by 10 o' clock and then you wake up and there's 10 inches of snow on the ground. Well, by George, it did happen.

[B]

Well, I'll use myself as an illustration. I would have bet good money that living in Charlotte, North Carolina, that I would never be touched by hurricane winds or storms. Well, In September of 1989, there is this little hurricane business called Hugo. And Hugo made a believer out of me and changed my mind. Mind. Now when I see hurricanes coming toward the eastern seaboard or the Gulf or wherever hurricane may be coming, I'm paying very close attention because I'm living proof that a hurricane can travel far. Hundreds of miles inland. Lived it, been there, done that. Power out for 10 days. Yeah, it was horrible. And I wasn't a prepper back then.

[A]

And even last year, year before, I'm not really sure exactly when, but a hurricane came through and it came through up through Alabama and It was still 74 miles an hour, which is hurricane force. Exactly when he got to north Alabama. And that's not one I would have expected because this states what, 300 miles long for sure. Top to bottom. Something of that nature. But we've got to consistently move past that ostrich effect. In other words, having our head in the sand.

[B]

Yeah. Just. It's never going to happen. Yeah.

[A]

And accept that adversity is a part of life. And some of these things can happen to you. Get over that normalcy bias and then conduct a realistic threat assessment. Now, we're going to talk more about this in a minute. But focusing on what is likely to happen helps prevent us from being overwhelmed by the impossible scenarios.

[B]

Exactly.

[A]

And the next thing is to visualize success. We need to mentally rehearse our response to a crisis, such as an evacuation or a home fire. Now, it conditions the brain by visualizing, it allows us to trick the brain into thinking it's already survived that ordeal. And it reduces the anxiety and speak, speeds up the decision making, and it helps to make us better. I love to watch the bobsledders, the, the various ice slider type things in the Olympics. And when you can see them up there, they probably have their eyes closed and they're visualizing that track, every curve. You can see their heads tilting one way or the other. They're visualizing their run. And I'm guessing that skaters and skiers and everybody else does it as well. But by visualizing those things, your brain thinks it's already been there.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And then we need to manage stress. We need to learn some techniques like box breathing. It's breathing in and holding it and then exhaling it for about four seconds each. And it really can help to bring that stress level down.

[B]

Right now, you know, that's good technique to have on the job at school or in the house with the family, just to lower that stress level. Breathing really does make a huge difference.

[A]

And be fluid. Flexibility may be too stiff in a changing crisis. I said this, I coined this phrase, be fluid because flexibility may be too stiff. When I was teaching disaster rel. But you may have to abandon a plan that's not working and you may have to pivot to a plan B or a plan C. Pivot, Pivot, pivot. Yep, you're thinking of that Friends episode.

[B]

Taking the sofa up the stairs.

[A]

But you just may have to go to another plan. But stay positive. Maintaining that optimistic outlook and focusing on the small wins keeps you motivated and solution oriented.

[B]

That's excellent tips. So let's talk about conducting a proper risk assessment. This is a foundational first step of your practical preparedness. This focuses your energy and resources on real world scenarios rather than some sort of dramatic low probability event. So you want to identify your regional and your localized hazards. First thing that comes to my mind, Natural disasters, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires, floods. Extreme weather common to your region. Identify what's most likely to happen where you are in your specific geographic area. You know, risks are not one size fits all. Our Montana friends have to focus on blizzards, but our Florida group has to focus on hurricanes.

[A]

Yeah. And focus on some man made hazards as well.

[B]

Oh yeah.

[A]

Proximity to chemical plants, industrial sites or railroad tracks and highways where hazardous material spills could occur. And that's something that we have planned for. We have a major road just about a half a mile away and we have a railroad about three quarters of a mile away. And there's all kinds of things going up and down that railway in that highway.

[B]

Good to know.

[A]

And so if there is some type of a hazardous material spill, we have a plan. And it involves leaving and going uphill.

[B]

Getting go the opposite direction of the emergency.

[A]

There's some societal and economic risks. What's your potential for power outages, for supply chain disruptions, for job loss or even for civil unrest that can affect you.

[B]

If you live like in the urban setting, it can. Or close to the urban setting. You know, sometimes you can have unwelcome visitors come by your gate.

[A]

We did do an episode on daily on being prepared for civil unrest. You can find yourself caught in a mob and we went through some of the things of how to get out of it.

[B]

Right.

[A]

You want to evaluate personal and situational vulnerabilities. Assess your own specific circumstances to understand your specific needs. Your needs are different than my needs. There's physical factors. We need to be honest about our age. I could do a whole lot more when I was 30 than I can at 68.

[B]

Same.

[A]

We need to be honest about our strength and about our health conditions at 68. We have some. Or I have some annoying health conditions. We're working on them, but they can be annoying. But they could come into play. We also need to be cognizant of those dependence. Factor in the needs of family members. Do some of them have special needs? Are there infants which we got a new baby in the family today. Sweet little girl. Do you have elderly relatives that you're looking out for, providing care for and need a plan to be able to deal with those. How about pets? Anything that's relying entirely on you, you need to factor that in. There's also resource dependency. Identify your reliance on external systems like water, food, medical services, energy, all of these. When I look at those, those are external systems that we depend on.

[B]

That's right.

[A]

So if one of these goes down, what's our plan? And yes, we do have a plan.

[B]

Makes me think that the next thing we need to touch on is to prioritize our threats by their probability. Now there's a common mistake that's often made and that's called priority inversion. That's where a lot of folks will focus on the dramatic Hollywood style catastrophic events that are played out in a, you know, major motion picture like an asteroid strike, a total societal collapse, a whole new world being born, while actually neglecting the very likely risks that could take place.

[A]

Yeah, I'm in a number of prepping forums and groups. One of the things that I've noticed recently is there, there's a segment of preppers that are highly concerned with which gas mask to buy. Yeah, those types of things. And you know, don't go buying a gas mask unless you've got months and months of food on hand.

[B]

You write.

[A]

Unless you plan to have tear gas thrown at you, then you might want to consider that don't neglect the things that you need to survive in daily life.

[B]

And that just goes right back to your risk assessment, what's likely to happen where you are. So you rank those from the most likely to the least likely and then that's what you're prepping around. Now you've got high probability events. Things like statistically you're far more likely to face a major car repair, a job loss or something happen at home where you'd have to have a home repair than any kind of a doomsday scenario.

[A]

Here's the preparation strategy. Base your initial plan on your top three most likely events that you could face. That is not asteroid strike. True, it is not emp, is not zombie apocalypse. It's probably got something to do with weather, jobs, health, financial. Those kinds.

[B]

Exactly.

[A]

Now think of this like a bullseye target, okay? The center ring or the bullseye is what will happen.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

These are the guaranteed events such as seasonal weather cycle guarantee you it's going to be hot in Alabama in August.

[B]

Absolutely. You can bet money on that.

[A]

No doubt. With a humidity of about 90% and a temperature of about 95 degrees Fahrenheit, it's air you can wear. Yeah, is what we say.

[B]

I call it breathing soup.

[A]

Yeah, it's breathing soup.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That's where we might want to get that gas mask and filter out the water.

[B]

I don't know about that.

[A]

Anyway, these are guaranteed events and, and I guarantee you that this year we will have some tornado watches and warnings and we'll have to be prepared to go to our safe space for that. The second ring is what is likely or probable. Okay, I can put some of these into the almost guaranteed. Okay, okay. These are some regional threats that have a high historical frequency, like hurricanes for coastal residents.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

It may not be this year, it may not be next year, but it will likely happen at some other time. Tornadoes. For those in tornado alley, whether it is across Mississippi, Alabama or whether it's across Oklahoma, that is likely or probable to happen. Okay, now the third ring is what is possible.

[B]

Okay?

[A]

These are those generational or unusual events like the massive snowstorms in Texas and.

[B]

Consequently also the massive flooding, the historical flooding that took place, what, last year? Last July in Texas. They said it was like one in 100 years type of flooding, just catastrophic event.

[A]

And recent ice storms that stretch from Louisiana all the way to the Northeast.

[B]

Oh yeah, Mississippi was.

[A]

Yeah, Mississippi was hard. Gosh. It was hurricane floodings in the mountain regions of western North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee.

[B]

They're still working on it.

[A]

That is possible. It is not normal. It's an unusual event or a generational event, but it is possible. And then you've got the fourth ring and this is the possible but not likely.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

These are the low probability, although they would be high impact events. An EMP electromagnetic pulse. If you took out the electric grid for the United States, I don't know how long we've got from there. That's catastrophic, right? A catastrophic CME or coronal mass ejection could do the very same thing. Or a total societal collapse. It's possible, but it's really not likely.

[B]

And again, we're not fear mongering. This is exactly why we say this is because we're not going to spend our time focusing on those at the expense of focusing on what's likely or guaranteed to have.

[A]

Right. When we are working our prepping plan for building our preps, we start with that bullseye.

[B]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

And when we're good with that bullseye, then we move to the next ring. And when we're good with that ring, we move to the next ring.

[B]

Right.

[A]

So we're moving from what is highly probable down to what is possible but not very probable. So don't work on that not very probable, high impact, low probability event. Before you have those high probability events taken care of, consider this a high impact and high probability event. And that is a personal shtf. Yeah. It could be the death of a spouse, it could be a house fire, it could be a sudden disability, it could be a job loss. It's anything that's a devastating impact on your specific household, even when the rest of the world remains normal. I almost got in an argument. I finally just backed out of it on a forum one time when a guy said that the death of a spouse was not an SHTF event. Well, I tell that to that lady. I guarantee you for her, Schumer done hit the fan.

[B]

Well, you know, I think a lot of people see an SHTF event as affecting a large populace at one time, when in fact it can be a personal event that happens to just your family, your loved ones and those friends. Because it's definitely something that you may or may not have had an opportunity to even try to prepare for. My heart really goes out to those that learn the news of a family member that was suddenly lost, like today in an accident of some kind. You don't have time to really prepare for it happening. And bang, here's the news. And my heart, I've experienced that within my family and I know a lot of other of our listeners have as well. So, you know, there's going to be some things you get no notice about. You're just going to have to accept that when we're living in this world today, some things we're aware of and some things we're not aware of. And you've just got to be able to face it.

[A]

And even though the neighborhood is not affected, you're affected, you're affected.

[B]

And for you, the world kind of stops.

[A]

The world kind of stops.

[B]

Certainly, you know, you starting with your list, I'm just kind of recap here. Start with your list with the top three most likely events that you could face where you're living today. Whether that's a power outage, car breakdown, a job loss, whatever your top three threats or risks are, and build your plan around those first and get that solid in your mind. Do that visualization, rehearse it from time to time. Because listen, prepping is a journey, it's not a destination. You can move from your basic 72 hour self sufficiency to intermediate preparedness, which brings you out to weeks and even months only after your highest probability threats have been adequately addressed.

[A]

Now, did you learn something today? Did you get an idea of something new that you need to do or somehow receive value from the podcast? Maybe we entertained you or maybe you just love our Southern charm.

[B]

Well, bless your heart.

[A]

Would you help us by giving back a little? Nairuby joined in supporting the podcast in December. And today's cup of coffee comes from Ruby.

[B]

Thank you, Ruby.

[A]

Ruby, we really do appreciate it. And you too can go to practicalprepping.info support where you'll find several ways that you can support the show, including a coffee membership, and that's only $5 a month. But it really does help us offset the expenses of the show. So please consider doing that@practical prepping.info forward slash support. And we do thank you for being here today. We appreciate you taking your time. You could have chosen any other podcast, but you chose ours. And we certainly do appreciate that. And thank you for being here. And as Krista always says, stuff happens, my friends. Stay prepared and we'll see you next time. Sam.