Tim Cook Sat Out the AI Race — Will the New CEO Pay the Price?

Summary

Prof G Markets: “Tim Cook Sat Out the AI Race — Will the New CEO Pay the Price?”

Date: April 22, 2026
Host: Ed Elson (Vox Media Podcast Network)
Panelists: Patrick McGee (Financial Times, author of Apple in China) and Tripp Mickle (NYT, author of After Steve)

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Episode Overview

This episode covers the monumental leadership shift at Apple as Tim Cook steps down after 15 years as CEO, passing the baton to John Ternus, Apple’s head of hardware engineering. The discussion zeroes in on Cook's legacy—his triumphs and missed opportunities—particularly focusing on Apple’s tepid foray into AI and the resulting risks for the company in a fast-evolving tech landscape. With expert guests Patrick McGee and Tripp Mickle, the episode analyzes what this transition means for Apple’s future, the challenges awaiting Ternus, and the unresolved question: Did Tim Cook set Apple up for another era of dominance, or did he leave the company vulnerable?

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tim Cook’s Legacy: Business Titan, But Conservative Innovator

[04:34–07:20]

• Cook’s Achievements:
  • Apple’s market cap grew from $350B to $4T during his tenure.
  • Revenue increased 300%, profits 350%.
  • Expanded company’s services (Apple TV, credit card, etc.) and deepened reliance on the iPhone ecosystem.
  • Negotiated transformative deals like the China Mobile partnership, making China both a manufacturing base and a pivotal consumer market.
  • Extracted major profits from partnerships, e.g., $20B annual profit from Google relationship.
• Leadership Approach:
  • Cook’s era focused on operational excellence, supply chain mastery, and expanding the services revenue—"He squeezed every penny that was really available in the supply chain." — Patrick McGee, [04:41]
  • Under Cook, Apple perfected an efficient, predictable, profit-driven operation, but at the expense of bold new products.

“He wasn't amiss, despite what people thought out of the gate. But there's another question about Tim, and that's based on the lack of new products, right?”
— Tripp Mickle [05:57]

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2. Where Did Cook Fall Short? Innovation, Vision Pro, and Missed AI Bets

[09:29–12:36]

• Failed Projects:
  • Spent a decade on "Project Titan" (Apple Car), which was ultimately scrapped.
  • Vision Pro (Apple’s AR/VR push) was a technical marvel yet flopped as a consumer product—“Within six days, I realized, this thing's useless... it lacks vision.” — Patrick McGee, [09:41].
  • Cultural shift: Long-timers see fading inspiration/hunger compared to Jobs era; Apple now "predictable, and more like a utility."
• Corporate Culture Critique:
  • Accusations of Apple being "uninspired" and "risk averse," attributed both to Cook’s personality and the sheer size of the company.
  • Excessive focus on operational deadlines limited room for creativity and innovation.

“The people leading Apple all are worth hundreds of millions of dollars through their stock options. You know, they just don't have the appetite to take on major projects like they used to.”
— Patrick McGee [10:48]

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3. The AI Gap: Apple’s Passive Approach

[12:36–16:07]

• Spending Disparity:
  • Apple spends just $14B on AI/capex in contrast to Amazon ($200B) and Google ($175B).
  • While competitors ramp up, Apple is actually cutting spending.
• The Big Question:
  • Is Apple disciplined and strategic, or dangerously complacent?
  • The company’s philosophy: Let others build the AI infrastructure, and Apple collects a "toll" via its installed base and services.
  • But Apple had a head start with Siri, “pre-Alexa...by a decade and they completely squandered the potential.” — Patrick McGee [13:19]
  • If AI is as revolutionary as current trends suggest, Apple risks becoming just a vessel for others’ innovations—“It’s a strange, like, the world’s most iconic company...to basically not be involved.” [13:44]
• Cultural/Structural Weakness:
  • Lack of foundational AI capability internally and missed opportunities compound the risk of irrelevance in the next era.

“They weren't really in a position to step into the AI race...because it just wasn't a muscle they'd built up over time.”
— Tripp Mickle [14:54]

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4. Enter John Ternus: Hardware Veteran with Cowboy Potential

[20:04–25:53]

• Background:
  • Ternus has been at Apple 25 years, rising by mastering “the Tim Cook playbook”—tactical, disciplined decisions.
  • Known for consensus and prudent technical judgment (e.g., when to roll out facial recognition in devices).
• Risk Profile:
  • Dialogue suggests Ternus may be more of a “cowboy”—willing to experiment within bounds—especially with Johnny Srouji now elevated as Chief Hardware Officer to provide operational checks.
  • Ternus is “a tinkerer...who plays with go-karts and engineers them in his spare time,” potentially signaling a less risk-averse era.
• Leadership Structure:
  • With Tim Cook staying on as Executive Chairman, the risk of “dual CEO-ship” looms—could destabilize or constrain Ternus if a crisis (China, geopolitics) arises.

“Turnus will have more leeway to be a cowboy with the understanding that Shrugie backs them up and brings the rigor, cleans up whatever mess is made and so forth.”
— Patrick McGee [24:03]

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5. China: The Double-Edged Sword

[22:46–28:00]

• China is at the heart of Apple’s supply chain and market growth—also a major risk given intensifying US-Beijing adversarial politics.
• Ternus inherits fraught relationships in both Washington and Beijing; operational pivots away from China will be tough with Cook still guiding from the chairmanship.
• Critique: Apple hasn’t pivoted fast enough into emerging markets (e.g., India, Mexico).

“If you're trying to make those decisions and the executive chairman is the very person who put Apple into the current predicament, that is not an easy position.”
— Patrick McGee [27:27]

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6. What Will Success Look Like for Ternus?

[28:00–32:19]

• Ternus’ legacy will hinge on how he navigates the AI revolution; avoiding the “third-generation curse” in leadership transitions.
• The incoming product cycle (including a foldable iPhone on deck for launch) is well-timed to script a smooth transition.
• Market reaction muted—likely due to Cook sticking around as a “security blanket” for investors; real tests await.

“Successor John Turner will hinge almost entirely on his ability to navigate this AI transition and make sure that Apple's at the forefront of it.”
— Tripp Mickle [28:20]

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7. The Historical Moment: Significance of the Transition

[33:10–33:57]

• Panelists agree: This is a historic changing of the guard, but the real test will come only when Ternus faces his first “Turnus moment” under fire.
• No immediate drama or crisis, but much depends on how Cook’s strategic bets (especially on AI and China) play out in coming years.

“But a new CEO at the world's most iconic company...worth $4 trillion, that's clearly a big moment.”
— Patrick McGee [33:51]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Cook’s “time bombs” for his successor:
  “He sort of laid time bombs for the next CEO, which is to say the China risk could really blow up. And we can go into more detail there. And he's not invested really much into data centers for AI... If it turns out to be the wrong move, Apple would be years behind.”
  — Patrick McGee [04:49]

• On Apple’s diminished appetite for risk:
  “It's a huge company and I don't know...if it's just the nature of a company that size or if it's Tim Cook's pedigree and risk aversion that just sort of makes the company a little bit dull, predictable, and more like a utility than it ever has been.”
  — Patrick McGee [11:23]

• On the AI existential threat to Apple:
  “The fact that this could be a technological revolution that creates a new operating system that breaks up the connective tissue between iOS and the iPhone, that kind of software hardware experience that's part of the iPhone's magic. They were scared by that.”
  — Tripp Mickle [15:14]

• On the third-generation CEO curse:
  “You have the founder who starts a business, the son who takes over...and then the grandson usually comes along...screws it all up. For John, it's going to be critical of not to be, don't be the grandson.”
  — Tripp Mickle [28:20]

• On the significance of the moment:
  “This is a company that's been around 50 years and this is only the eighth CEO and only the third of this century. So it is a big transition. But I wouldn't say the moment this week is actually all that big. There's no drama here. Nothing has really happened. The drama is when...we're going to have a Turnus moment and that will be sort of the answer to your question.”
  — Patrick McGee [33:10]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Segment Description | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:03 | Market/Succession News: Cook steps down, Ternus takes over Apple | | 04:34 | Assessing Tim Cook’s legacy and impact | | 07:57 | Cook’s greatest achievements – China/Services | | 09:29 | Where Cook failed: Apple Car, Vision Pro, lack of innovation | | 12:36 | The AI question – why Apple sat out | | 13:19 | Apple’s rationale/risk on skimping AI & infrastructure investment | | 14:54 | Apple’s internal AI weaknesses & the Siri squander | | 20:04 | Who is John Ternus? Leadership style | | 22:46 | China risk, Ternus’ approach, Cook’s lingering influence | | 28:00 | What success looks like for Ternus – avoiding the third-generation curse | | 32:34 | Historical perspective on Apple and significance of the moment |

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Conclusion: What’s at Stake

Tim Cook leaves a company more valuable and influential than ever, but perhaps on the verge of stagnation as AI transforms the tech world. With John Ternus stepping in—and Cook’s shadow still looming—the coming years will reveal if Apple can reinvent itself yet again, or if this is indeed the start of a plateau. The episode closes with the pivotal question: Did Cook secure Apple’s future, or sidestep the biggest wave in tech history?

“Did he leave the company on a trajectory for even greater success? Or did he abandon it when he started to lose the script? That is the question for Apple investors today, and only time will answer it.”
— Ed Elson [34:21]

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End of Summary

Transcript

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[Ed Elson]

Today's number nine. That's how many four and five star generals have been fired by this administration. Almost as many as the 150 years prior. When asked for comment, Secretary Pete Hegseth said he's, quote, trying to be the shepherd. We later reached out to Quentin Tarantino to find out what that meant.

[Tripp Mickle]

Money market matters.

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The show goes on.

[Ed Elson]

Welcome to Frothy Markets. I'm Ed elson. It is April 22nd. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices declined as Iran talks stalled around market close. Trump announced the ceasefire was extended indefinitely and the blockade would be maintained. Brent crude rose and treasury yields climbed as Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Walsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee. During the hearing, Walsh called for reforms at the Fed chair, suggesting he'd make changes to the agency's inflation models and communication style. He also dodged questions about Lisa Cook and the Jerome Powell probe and declined to acknowledge that President Trump lost the 2020 election. Still, regarding Fed independence, he said, quote, the president never asked me to predetermine Commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions. Nor would I ever agree to do so. Okay, what else is happening? After 15 years as CEO of Apple, Tim Cook is officially stepping down. During Cook's tenure, Apple's revenue almost quadrupled and its market value increased by about $3.6 trillion. On September 1, Cook will be transitioning to the role of Executive chairman and he'll hand the CEO reins to John Turnus, Apple's head of hardware engineering. Turnus has spent 25 years half his life at company overseeing the hardware behind every major Apple product. The transition marks the start of a new era for Apple with plenty of unanswered questions about what comes next. So here to discuss what this moment means for Apple and for the future of this company, we are joined by a panel of experts. Patrick McGee, award winning journalist and author of Apple in China, the Capture of the World's Greatest Company. And also Trip Mickle, tech reporter for the New York Times and author of After Steve How Apple Became a Trillion Dollar Company and Lost Its Soul. Patrick Tripp, thank you very much for joining us on Prof. G Markets. So Cook is departing, Ternus is taking over. I want to start with a look at Tim Cook and his career. Patrick, I'll start with you. Tim was CEO 15 years. I mean, when we look back at this, what will we say about what he did for the company? What will the history books of business say about his legacy at Apple?

[Patrick McGee]

Well, you're already thinking about it the way I think about it. I mean, look, I think if you, if you're looking at it from 2026, it is hard to fault this guy. As you said, $3.6 trillion added to Apple's market cap. You know, he clearly fulfilled whatever tasks Steve Jobs set him out to do. His, his role was not necessarily to come out with breakthrough products. It was to iterate what Steve Jobs had already come up with on a global scale. You know, he squeezed every penny that was really available in the supply chain. He, he built up services, he, he put areas like Apple TV and a host of things like that. You know, he's getting $20 billion of profit per year just out of the Google relationship, right? Just sort of the, using the user base in Apple's favor. So I mean all kinds of things. But what you're pointing to is where will we see this 10 years from now? And that to me is the most interesting question because you know, Ben Thompson of Trajectory has put this with a nice metaphor. He sort of laid time bombs for the next CEO, which is to say the China risk could really blow up. And we can go into more detail there. And he's not invested really much at. Into data centers for AI. That might be the right move, but if it turns out to be the wrong move, Apple would be years behind the companies that people have been fawning over the last few years. With appropriate acclaim.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, we will definitely get to China, and we'll definitely get to AI. Tripp, I just want to get your initial reactions. What do you make of Tim Cook stepping down? How do you think he'll be remembered?

[Tripp Mickle]

Patrick's right. We can. We can make a call today as. As on how he's done over the past 15 years and say, clearly, he'll be remembered today as the most successful successor to an accomplished executive, to a founder. I mean, what Tim Cook did is rare. Whether you're talking about the world of business or sports or even politics. If you have somebody who's kind of a figurehead in the same way Steve Jobs was, seldom do you have somebody come along behind them and continue or sustain that success. I mean, if you're a college football fan, nobody followed Bear Bryant for decades until Nick Saban came along. Right. Skip generations. And Tim Cook, he wasn't amiss, despite what people thought out of the gate. But there's another question about Tim, and that's based on the lack of new products, right? I mean, Apple is still really living off the iPhone and off the products that it stitched onto the iPhone that have made the iPhone stickier than even it was when it was first released. And the question will be whether or not it runs out of momentum eventually and whether or not his successor can succeed in innovating again and delivering a new product that potentially adds to the company's prospects for the future.

[Ed Elson]

I mean, when we look at what he did, well, it's easiest to just start with the numbers where he took a $350 billion company and turned it into a $4 trillion company. He increased revenue 300%. He increased profits 350%. But when we look at, like, the decisions that he made and the things that he actually did to achieve those numbers, Tripp, what do you think he got right? What were his big wins over the course of his career? And then we'll return to what the future will look like. But what do you think he got right?

[Tripp Mickle]

There are two signature things that I think he did that really changed the trajectory for Apple, and the first was striking a China Mobile deal two years after taking over as CEO of the company. He'd spent a long time working on that. It changed Apple's trajectory in China, locked the iPhone in China and turned China not just from a market that made and produced the iPhone, but it turned Apple into a company that really captured sales from the rising middle class in China. And that's really become a bedrock of their business. And also, to Patrick's point earlier, it's a precarious part of their business as well because of the geopolitical circumstances and the adversarial relationship today between the US And China. And then the second thing he did was he looked at the iPhone and he said, okay, well, how do we make more money off a product that now is in the pockets of a billion people around the world? And he leaned into services in 2019 and made that a focus of the company's business. He launched new services that drew attention to that, including, like, TV and, you know, a credit card. He elbowed Apple into new areas so that it can make more money just because of the sheer heft and the number of people who own the iPhone.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, Patrick, I'd be curious to hear if you have anything to add on to that and potentially. But my follow up is, what do you think he got wrong?

[Patrick McGee]

Yeah, no, the getting wrong stuff is obviously more interesting. And I suppose maybe I'd point to so two things. One, there's just like the clear failure. So, you know, they worked on an apple car for 10 years and then abandoned the project.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah.

[Patrick McGee]

I honestly hem and haw about whether or not one should point that out as a major disaster. Tim Cook's line about it was that we like to fail internally. And honestly, I can respect that. They put a lot of engineering talent into it and at the end of the day, decided not to do it. I don't know that we should hold his feet to the fire for that, but it's worth thinking about. The other one is the Vision Pro. I mean, I did the Vision Pro demo and was in awe of this thing. Somehow convinced my spouse to let me get $3,500 to spend on the device, and after six days, took it back. I was writing my book at the time. I thought, this is going to be the first book ever written in the Vision Pro. And within six days, I realized, this thing's useless. You can't have it on your head for more than 45 minutes. It's an engineering marvel, but it's basically a disaster as a product. And, you know, no pun intended, it lacks vision. I mean, that's. That's Tim Cook. The engineering talent in the company can build a great product, but it doesn't have an ecosystem. I don't think Tim Cook's much of a partnerships guy. He's not really a win win partnerships guy. He's an Apple takes all guy. And I think that really sort of came home when they tried to build this new platform. Envision OS companies like YouTube and Netflix had no interest in building, in building for it. So you know that that's a failure, but, but the bigger one is I think the failures are more intangible. Tripp will know as well as me if you go find people that worked at Apple for 20 or 30 years, people who really understood the difference between the Steve Jobs era and the Tim Cook era. You know, there's just a lack of inspiration, there's just a lack of hunger. The people leading Apple all are. All are worth hundreds of millions of dollars through their stock options. You know, they just don't have the appetite to take on major projects like they used to. And you'll have someone that comes out of Caltech with brilliant expertise. And what are they doing? They're doing the iPad magnets for two and a half years before calling it quits or something. Right. It's just, it's a huge company and I don't know, fundamentally just the honest statement, I don't know if it's just the nature of a company that size or if it's Tim Cook's pedigree and risk aversion that just sort of makes the company a little bit dull, predictable, and more like a utility than it ever has been.

[Tripp Mickle]

Yeah, I mean, just to elaborate on that.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, please.

[Tripp Mickle]

You know, one of the things Patrick's getting at here too, is that what Tim did over time was turn Apple into a juggernaut, a giant machine. Right. Where operations had a bigger voice in product development. And some of that was necessity. Right. They're making 200 million iPhones a year. You have to make sure that you hit certain deadlines to be able to deliver those iPhones. But those, the kind of, the rigidness of those deadlines close some of the creativity possibilities for people who had once developed these products in a more nimble fashion. And that's locked them into the product lineup they have, and to Patrick's point, made it hard to be as innovative as they once were. And to people from the outside looking in, it's led to accusations that Apple's more uninspired.

[Ed Elson]

Is this part of the AI problem here? I mean, we talked about the Fact that Apple is basically the only company that is not investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure. I mean, you look at Amazon, its capex is expected to reach $200 billion this year. For Google, it's close to that 175. And then Apple is going to spend only $14 billion. They're actually cutting their spending. Is that, I mean, what does that say about the company? Is that because they don't have vision or is it because they have discipline? I mean, what are we to make of that? And whereas Tim Cook, how does he play into that? Patrick?

[Patrick McGee]

So I think it's pretty nuanced because on the one hand Apple would like to say, hey, we can just be the hardware engineering company. Someone's going to build out massive data centers. You know, if it's OpenAI, if it's cloud, fine, but they're going to use the iPhone to access it. And meanwhile we'll actually collect 15 to 30% of every subscription. You know, supporting that ecosystem. I mean, in that sense it's brilliant. But the nuance there also is that Apple had the first mover advantage with Siri. Siri is pre Alexa, it's pre any of this by a decade and they completely squandered the potential. So the question is just going to be what sort of revolution is AI? And if you, if you, if you listen to Demisis Habis and Elon Musk and, and, and, and all these people, I mean if they are almost like half right about how much potential there is here, that it's the biggest, you know, change to computing since the web, if not much larger than that, then it's a strange, like the world's most iconic company that has this creative, you know, five decade history behind it to basically not be involved and just be a sort of passive vehicle for other people's AI systems. On the other hand, it's possible that, you know, they do just sort of ride this out, let every other, every other company spend and just take the sort of Google partnership where they have, where like they are literally being paid to be the vehicle. And you know, nobody really asks these days why doesn't Apple have their own Google competitor? It's kind of a nonsensical question and possibly AI is like that. And so I sort of hate to say time will tell, we just don't know, but I think that's the most honest answer.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah. Tripp, do you agree?

[Tripp Mickle]

Yeah, certainly. I mean they took their eye off the ball in Siri and that was never, you know, part of the business, a product that they prioritize. And therefore they weren't really in a position to step into the AI race in a competitive fashion because it just wasn't a muscle that they'd built up over time.

[Ed Elson]

Time.

[Tripp Mickle]

And as a result, they wound up in this position of getting scared internally about what AI, the threat AI posed to them. The fact that this could be a technological revolution that creates a new operating system that breaks up the connective tissue between iOS and the iPhone, that kind of software hardware experience that we're all accustomed to, that's part of the iPhone's magic. They were scared by that. And so they, they threw out their best shot at developing AI and it just backfired. I mean, they've kind of backed into this position of waiting and seeing what will happen in part because they missed out of the gate with what they developed. And as Patrick said, that leaves them in this position of having to wait to see how it will play out rather than actually dictating on their terms what happens to their business in this AI race.

[Ed Elson]

Stay tuned for more of this panel after the break. And by the way, we are heading out on tour at the end of May. So for more info and to get tickets to a show near you, head to propertymarketstore.com.

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[Ed Elson]

It was indeed. You surprised me with Virgin Atlantic upper class tickets to London.

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[Ed Elson]

It was pretty incredible. From the moment I entered that upper class cabin. I have to tell you, I felt like a vip. Anything I needed a drink, snack, assistance with the seat.

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[Ed Elson]

Flat seats. Flat seats, exactly. Had the four course meal, got my champagne. Very delicious. Enjoyed the food and the journey home. The journey home was great. I went to the Virgin Atlantic LHR Clubhouse. That's the Heathrow Clubhouse. Heathrow Clubhouse was awesome. Got myself a coffee, headed over to the meditation pod that they call the Soma Dome. Kind of felt like a sort of spaceship where you relax and think nice thoughts. So I did that for a little bit. Then we went over to the wing which are these acoustically sealed booths where you could do some work. You could even record a podcast. I didn't do that, but maybe I should have. It was a very enjoyable experience.

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[Ed Elson]

We're back with Profg Markets. So, Tripp, let's talk about the new CEO, John Turnus. He's been the head of hardware engineering. He's been spent 25 years at the company. What do we know about this guy and what do we think of him? Is he the right pick?

[Tripp Mickle]

I mean, John has been at Apple pretty much since the infancy of his career. He spent four years at a virtual Reality company before he landed there. And he landed in an engineering role and quickly showed himself to be a good manager. He was just really good at working with colleagues, with people. And that is part of the reason that over time he was given more and more responses. He was put on a leadership track very early, and he's had staying power there in part because he learned how to operate in Tim Cook's Apple in a way that helped him really shine. One of the anecdotes we heard about in our reporting was when Apple was looking at bringing facial recognition to the iPhone and they were debating after they had done that, whether or not to bring it to some Future devices around 2018. And he argued they should wait, in part because he didn't think people who would be buying those devices, it was going to be an augmented reality capability. He didn't think people who were buying those less expensive devices would gravitate to that technology. They should just wait, provide that to people who wanted early technology at a higher end price point, and then provide it to other people downstream later. And that's kind of speaking Tim Cook's language. It's a very tactical decision and approach to the marketplace. Those type of decisions are what helped him emerge as the kind of really the obvious candidate to succeed. Tim.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, it sounds like maybe he's got kind of a conservative approach, which seems like it was also Tim Cook's approach too. Patrick, I mean, you wrote a book on Apple's relationship to China, and it seems as though China is a big part of the story now. I mean, their supply chains are incredibly entrenched in China. They have this huge consumer base case in China. It also relates to the company's relationship to the president. I mean, there's all of this geopolitical crap that you have to deal with in that role now. It's not just about making cool products and selling them and talking about them on a stage with a turtleneck. What do you make of what his approach will likely be when it comes to China and also when it comes to politics in general, what's on his plate here?

[Patrick McGee]

So let me say one thing about John Ternus and I'll come back to China. I was talking to someone yesterday who knows Ternus well and worked with them, and he said, you know, Ternus actually has more of an opportunity to be a cowboy here, meaning to shoot from the hip and to be a lot more playful, in part because the other announcement yesterday is that Johnny Shrugi is becoming chief hardware officer. So that was a separate press release. Johnny Shrugi is the guy who basically since 2008 has has been overseeing Apple Silicon. Apple Silicon is probably the biggest development at Apple in the last five years. So you know, I think the iPhone 4 onwards, they had displaced Samsung and were designing their own chips for the iPhone. But since 2019 I think it is, they took over the computers as well. So intel has been totally taken out. Apple has their own design chip studio that has sort of taken over and really put the competition on the back foot. They've even displaced Qualcomm in some of their chips and built that in house. So major, major development. Shrugie was reported to be thinking of leaving last year and so it's interesting that now he's being elevated into position that didn't exist before because I think it tells you, it tells me. I mean, Tripp, I don't know what your Spidey sense is on this or if you have direct reporting on it, but my sense is that that reporting was probably genuine and that the result of that is that no, he's not the CEO, but he's now in the C suite. So he's not just replacing Turnus as the hardware chief, he's getting an elevated role. And so what this person was telling me was that Turnus will have more leeway to be a cowboy with the understanding that Shrugie backs them up and brings the rigor, cleans up whatever mess is made and so forth. So they might have this sort of dynamic duo quite element to it.

[Ed Elson]

Is that just, just to go that. Is that the right move? Does Apple need a cowboy right now? I mean it sounds from what you're saying and for what Tripp said, I mean, Tripp's book is about Apple losing its soul. Maybe that's what the company needs.

[Patrick McGee]

Well, I think Tripp and I are both these people who long for the days of, you know, the 1997-2007 decade where, where Apple just shocked the world with one more thing year after year.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah.

[Patrick McGee]

Who doesn't want that? And where I sort of get, you know, internally debating just myself on is, is. Is that just pure nostalgia that has no place in today's Apple? Is the company just too big to really have that? And I don't know. I think within the confines of what Apple is, John Turner sounds like the sort of guy who actually does can take on a little more risk maybe within the Tim Cook organization. He hasn't been known for that. Certainly he's not a risk taker in that, that Steve Jobs was. But I don't Think he's so averse to it the way that Tim Cook really is. I mean, that that's sort of a defining quality of Tim Cook, just how conservative, sort of calm and cool he is about it. So I love the idea. I don't know if this person's right, but they know Turnus and they say that, you know, he's sort of itching to do a lot more. You know, this is someone who plays with go karts and engineers them in spare time, seeing if a titanium go kart is going to be better than the aluminum one that he has in his garage. That's just not. Not Tim Cook. Right. So he's more of a tinkerer. And the fact that he's into racing just sort of tells you a little bit about his temperament. You know, Tim, Tim Cook's into hiking.

[Tripp Mickle]

That tells you something.

[Ed Elson]

That is an important detail. I want to return to China for a moment. What's he going to do about China? Are we going to see him giving gold plaques and gifts to the president like we saw with the previous guy?

[Patrick McGee]

He better. That's the. That's the president.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah.

[Patrick McGee]

I mean, so obviously for me, you know, this is my, this is my issue. This is the thing that I think most about and the. It basically depends on future events. I hate to stop, start, keep repeating myself, but with Tim Cook, the issue is that Tim Cook is not leaving the company. He's the executive chairman. And so sort of any journalist with a sense of other corporations, you know, histories has to immediately think, is that brilliance? Because John is. John Turner needs a helping hand. And how do you deal with Brussels, Beijing and Washington? I mean, how do you deal with Trump? I mean, anyone could use an internship from Tim Cook on how to do this.

[Tripp Mickle]

That.

[Patrick McGee]

Absolutely. But do you have a sort of dual CEO position? Like what happens, you know, like if there's a major world crisis involving China and Tim, Tim Cook has a different decision making process or a different just notion of what should, what should happen. Then John Ternus who makes the call, you know, the lucky thing would just be that they don't have to have that sort of debate. But you know, in the case of Disney, you know, Bob Iger steps, steps down and a month later Covid takes place, you know, and all hell breaks loose. And I think within two years or so, Bob Iger is back at the company. There is many companies who just have not been able to nail this structure where the CEO of a longtime company, you know, 15 years, in the case of Cook, elevates to executive chairman and is able to really let the new CEO, you know, earn their reputation and take different decisions. And you know, frankly, I think some of the cook last 15 years needs to be undone. Right. I think they need to be doing far more in India. I think they need to rethink whether they should have bigger operations in Mexico. But if you're trying to make those decisions and the executive chairman is the very person who put Apple into the current predicament, that is not an easy position to be. So I don't know what their relationship is, but you know, it basically just depends on whether it's going to be a tumultuous global economy in the next five years or a calm one.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah. Tripp, what do you think success for John Turnus would look like? Like what, what kinds of things would he accomplish that hasn't been accomplished before that would really fundamentally change the trajectory for the company, but also make investors happy with the company and perhaps increase the share price?

[Tripp Mickle]

Yeah, I mean successor John Turner will hinge almost entirely on his ability to navigate this AI transition and make sure that Apple's at the forefront of it. I mean that's, that's going to be integral to whether or not he succeeds. And one of the things I'll be watching is like when you talk to people about Apple who've worked there, it kind of functions like a family and you can kind of, even though it's a publicly traded company, I've often thought of it kind of the same way I've thought of family owned companies. You have the founder who starts a business, the son who takes over the business and takes it to new unprecedented business heights. And then the grandson usually comes along or the granddaughter and kind of screws it all up. And like for John, it's going to be critical of not to be, don't be the grandson, the third rung of that ladder. Right. Like, but that is a very common trajectory for family run businesses. And his ability to avoid that predicament is going to come down to conquering AI and figuring out how to make Apple important in the AI era.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, I totally agree with that. But what's interesting is that the stock didn't react that much. It was down around 2 or 3% yesterday. And that to me is a big question. It's like you've got the guy leaving at probably the most important moment for this company, the AI. The new technology has arrived. He's decided to make this very big decision to not invest in that technology and then he's just Leaving and giving it to the grandson. And yet investors, see, seem to be somewhat okay with that. I kind of would have expected they would have been more nervous about that.

[Tripp Mickle]

But that's because Tim's still there, right? Tim Cook's there. It's providing reassurance to investors. And investors have been of a mixed mind about Apple and AI over the past few years. They're both thrilled that Apple isn't investing in data centers at the same rate and degree that its peers are. They've avoided this CAP CapX arms race. But they're also uneasy about the fact that Apple may be left behind. So the fact that the stock didn't move I think is more indicative of the comfort of knowing Tim Cook is going to still be there. They're training wheels right now and until those training wheels come off, I don't think we can really have a firm sense of what investors think of the company. I don't know about you, Patrick, but

[Patrick McGee]

yeah, well, they haven't been tested yet. So I mean, in a sense I'm certainly not an Apple investor in any way, but. But I don't think I learned anything yesterday that would cause me to be more optimistic or less optimistic than the company. I mean, John Ternus has been like the only person people could even think about for the last two years as the possible successor. I mean, just based on the fact that if you look at like the senior Vice president ranking, like everybody else is nearly Tim Cook's age, so therefore not really a candidate for a 15 year term if that's sort of the now precedent after two CEOs. And so, you know, being 50 years old, he's just sort of the natural candidate. You know, you're not going to take someone from outside Apple certainly, and you're not going to pluck some vp. I mean, he was the only person that was sort of actively being groomed. Again, Johnny Shrugie might be the exception and I think that's probably why he's Chief Hardware Officer. But there was really no surprise there. People might have been surprised about the timing, but it was reported back in November that this was the likely outcome sometime this year. Tripp wrote that as well. Right. I mean, I just, I don't think we learned much yesterday.

[Tripp Mickle]

And one last thing.

[Ed Elson]

Go ahead.

[Tripp Mickle]

This year makes a ton of sense. I mean, we're in the 50th anniversary of Apple where, you know, they have a product lineup that's going to make both men look like geniuses because they have a foldable phone on deck to launch In September, Tim Cook can say one more thing. You know, John Ternus can come out and explain how the phone works. Like it is really well scripted. Yeah. And I think that's part of the reason investors looked at this and said, okay, no big deal.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, yeah.

[Patrick McGee]

I mean, just adding to that, Art Levinson, the current chairman, he's 75. Perfect time to go out. Tim Cook is 65. Perfect time to leave the CEO position. And if you're going to do a 15 year term, what do you want a 50 year old who's a senior vice president? I mean, the stars aligned for this for sure.

[Tripp Mickle]

Sure.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah. He's older, but not too old. It's a nice time to go. You mentioned 50th anniversary. Both of you guys have studied the history of this company for a long time. Patrick, when you look at all of the big moments for Apple in Apple's history, starting with Steve Jobs, the Mac, the iPhone, Tim Cook comes along, the expansion to China, now this. Where does this rank for you in terms of important moments that defined the company?

[Patrick McGee]

Well, I mean, this is a company that's been around 50 years and this is only the eighth CEO and only the third of this century. So it is a big transition. But I wouldn't say the moment this week is actually all that big. There's no drama here. Nothing has really happened. It's going to be, the drama is when Trump became president for the first time and then people would declare six months in today he became president because he'd like bombed a country or something like we're going to have a turnus moment and that will be sort of the answer to your question. But you know, he's not in the role yet. Starts in September and even there, you know, Tim Cooks can be doing some hand holding. So, you know, I don't know when he's going to be tested, but it certainly hasn't happened yet. So I don't want to sort of draw too much meaning of this particular week.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah.

[Patrick McGee]

But a new CEO at the world's most iconic company, you know, worth $4 trillion, that's clearly a big moment.

[Ed Elson]

Waiting for the turnest moment. That's a good place to end. Patrick McGee, award winning journalist and author of Apple in China the Capture of the World's Greatest Company. Trip Mickl, Tech reporter for the New York Times, author of After How Apple Became a Trillion Dollar Company and Lost Its Soul Trip and Patrick, this was awesome. Thanks so much for joining me.

[Patrick McGee]

Thanks guys.

[Tripp Mickle]

Thanks for having us.

[Ed Elson]

So the Tim Cook era is officially ending. Before we wrap a quick review of the Apple CEO's career and his legacy. Tim Cook started at Apple in 1998 after spending five minutes with Steve Jobs, who convinced him to join the company. He was eventually promoted to COO. And then in 2011, just weeks before jobs passed, he was named CEO. He will go down as one of the greatest executives ever. When he took over, Apple was worth $350 billion. Today, that number is almost $4 trillion. In other words, Tim Cook technically created 11 times more value for shareholders than Steve Jobs himself. He also sold more than 3 billion iPhones. That is more than one iPhone for every three people on the planet. In addition, he oversaw the rollout of some of Apple's most iconic products, including the Apple AirPods and also the Apple Watch. But his tenure was not without troubles, most of which came in the latter years. His latest product, the Apple Vision Pro, was a failure. Failure. It sold only half a million units before it was quietly pulled. He also fumbled Apple's AI program, which was underwhelming to consumers and also prompted several executives to leave. His greatest mistake, however, might have been his embarrassing display of obsequiance toward the President. Last August, Cook presented Donald Trump with a gold plaque. And he quickly became the laughing stock of the Internet and really, really America at large. But Cook's riskiest bet was actually one that he chose not to stick around for. And that was the decision not to invest in data centers. While the rest of big tech geared up to spend nearly a $trillion on AI infrastructure, Apple chose to cut its spending. The only big tech company in America to do so. Which leaves his successor, John Turnus, in an interesting position. Because while every investor around the world awaits his AI strategy, his plan to make Apple the multi trillion dollar winner of the next era of technology, it might be possible that those plans were already made for him. There's no question that Tim Cook was a great, even legendary CEO. But his legacy will depend on the following question. Did he leave the company on a trajectory for even greater success? Or did he abandon it when he started to lose the script? That is the question for Apple investors today, and only time will answer it. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss, edited by Joel Patterson and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad William Williams. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen o' Donoghue and Mia Silverio. And our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Prof. G Markets from Prof. G Media. If you liked what you heard. Give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I will see you tomorrow. Ever spend all day fishing and catch nothing? That's what happens to hackers when Cisco Duo's on watch. Every launch login, every device, every user protected. Cisco Duo fishing season is over. Learn more at duo. Com.