Prof G Markets Podcast Summary

Episode: Bitcoin Erases 2025 Gains as Crypto Bear Market Deepens
Date: November 18, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson (Vox Media), guest Luke Kaur (Markets Editor, Sherwood News), guest Bill Cohen (Founding Partner, Puck News)
Producer: Claire Miller
Description: The episode delivers a sharp analysis of Bitcoin’s bear market turn, broader crypto volatility, and major company news including the Warner Brothers Discovery auction and Berkshire Hathaway’s Google buy.

Main Theme

This episode focuses on the deepening crypto bear market—specifically Bitcoin's sharp decline below key levels and its erasure of 2025 gains—examining potential causes, broader tech sell-offs, and implications for adjacent sectors. The latter half pivots to traditional market intrigue, with Warner Brothers Discovery’s pending sale and Berkshire Hathaway’s surprise investment in Google.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crypto Market Meltdown (Bitcoin and Altcoins)

Guest: Luke Kaur, Markets Editor at Sherwood News

• Market Recap (02:23-03:46):

  • Major indices fell; tech hit hardest ahead of Nvidia earnings.
  • Google stock bucked the trend, up 3% (see later segment).
  • 10-year Treasury yields slid; dollar climbed.
  • Crypto declines were severe: Bitcoin fell below $100,000, erasing 2025 gains, hitting $90,000 (-25% from October peak). Ethereum and altcoins saw severe drops.

• Why Is Crypto Crashing? (03:48-06:00):

  • Luke’s macro view: "It's very hard to look at the crypto markets and try and pin down why things are happening." (04:08)
    • Crypto price moves often about risk appetite, momentum, speculation—"an ID asset."
    • Break of $100K: "We're all kind of evolved monkeys who are very attracted to round numbers." (04:29)
    • Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and crypto stocks mirror classic risk-off moves.
    • Leveraged positions unwinding, notably referencing Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy fund's distress.
    • "Poop coins" (altcoins) "are back to like pandemic-era level trading." (05:40)

• Bitcoin’s Store of Value Narrative Questioned (06:00-07:51):

  • Host Ed Elson raises the contradiction: Bitcoin as “safe asset” versus risk-asset behavior.
    • Gold is up 50% YTD, Bitcoin down.
    • Luke: "For a lot of time of its history, Bitcoin has primarily been... a hyper leveraged play on the Nasdaq." (06:56)
    • Store of value narrative hasn't shown "empirical validity... and it certainly isn't showing any at this juncture." (07:22)

• The Fate of Altcoins & Meme Tokens (07:51-10:49):

  • Ed: "Is this the beginning of the end for the altcoins and the meme coins?"
  • Luke: Highly speculative assets rebound or collapse with swings in risk appetite; not the end, but deep cycles are normal.
    • Upcoming events like Nvidia earnings and jobs/inflation data could quickly shift sentiment.
    • "All it takes is a flip in risk appetite for these things to start working again." (08:30)
    • Fed cut odds dropping from 80–85% to ~50% weighing on speculative assets.

• Trump's Impact (10:49-12:54):

  • Ed: Price is back to 2024 election levels despite Trump’s pro-bitcoin stance.
  • Luke: "Speculative assets... need persistent catalysts to keep working." (11:41)
    • Trump eased institutional adoption, but crypto still craves "momentum."
    • The key: "What have you done for me lately?" (12:54)

Notable Quotes:

• “We're all kind of evolved monkeys who are very attracted to round numbers.”
  — Luke Kaur (04:29)
• “Bitcoin has been a hyper leveraged play on the Nasdaq... rather than some kind of store of value.”
  — Luke Kaur (06:56)
• “Speculative assets that don't have a lot in terms of near-term fundamentals... need persistent catalysts to keep working.”
  — Luke Kaur (11:41)

2. Warner Brothers Discovery Auction Update

Guest: Bill Cohen, Founding Partner at Puck News

• Auction Setup and Players (16:34-18:17):

  • Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD): Market cap ~$60B + $30B debt.
  • David Zaslav (CEO) expected to eventually sell the company; rejected three recent bids from Ellisons (via Paramount Skydance).
  • Multiple suitors postured: Comcast, Netflix, Amazon, Apple.

• Deal Mechanics & Valuation (18:17-21:47):

  • Thursday deadline for “preliminary bids” is a way to drive up Ellison’s offer—they're at $23.50/share.
  • Competing proposal: Zaslav's idea to split company into two, with Wall St analysts projecting potential $30/share long-term value.
  • Asset split considerations: Comcast and Netflix would want streaming and studio segments, not linear TV.

• Likelihood of a Competitive Auction (21:47-23:26):

  • Ed highlights that only Ellison has submitted a formal bid.
  • Bill: Absence of leaks doesn’t mean no activity—proper governance keeps deals secret until needed.
  • If no one else shows up, it’s Ellisons vs. the split-up plan.

• What If No One Bids? (23:26-24:52):

  • If Ellisons drop out, stock could fall from ~$24 back to $11/share; would trigger shareholder lawsuits and potential exit for Zaslav.
  • If Ellison remains, price holds.

• Predictions for WBD’s Future (24:52-26:07):

  • Bill: "Warner Brothers Discovery has put itself into Revlon mode"—must sell to the highest bidder.
  • If Ellison stays interested, likelihood is Ellisons buy Warner Brothers. If not, much rougher outcome.

Notable Quotes:

• “Every public company is for sale at a price.”
  — Bill Cohen (16:55)
• “If they're gone, I mean, if they've decided, you know what, you guys had your chance, you blew it... Then that stock will tank back to 11. Yes.”
  — Bill Cohen (24:24)
• “Warner Brothers Discovery has put itself into Revlon mode... they basically have to sell the company to the highest bidder, in effect.”
  — Bill Cohen (25:03)

3. Berkshire Hathaway Buys $5B of Google

Host: Ed Elson

• Details (26:31-29:56):
  • Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, purchased $5B in Google stock—potentially his final major investment.
  • Berkshire reduced Apple stake by 75% from its peak.
  • Google closed up 3%.
  • Prof G Markets’ early-year Google pick (“less than $160”) is now up 80% (“trading at nearly $290”).
  • Berkshire’s investment seen as major positive: “Berkshire is not a hype machine... They care about cash flows, fundamentals, wonderful companies at reasonable prices.”
  • Signal: Even with AI bubble worries, Google seen as undervalued and bullish.

Notable Quotes:

• “Berkshire is not a hype machine... This is Warren Buffett’s firm. They don't care about the hype... They care about cash flows, fundamentals, wonderful companies at reasonable prices.”
  — Ed Elson (28:06)

Noteworthy Moments & Timestamps

• Bitcoin’s $100k Break and Market Psychology:
  (04:08–05:40) – Luke’s explanation of psychological thresholds and institutional unwinding.
• Bitcoin as a Hyper-Leveraged Nasdaq Play:
  (06:56) – Luke reframes the "store of value" narrative.
• Outlook on Meme/Altcoins, Speculation Cycles:
  (07:51–08:49) – Debating the cyclical, not terminal, nature of altcoin slumps.
• Trump's Crypto Impact – More Momentum Than Policy:
  (10:49–12:54) – Trump’s limited influence compared to market catalysts.
• Warner Brothers Auction Mechanics and Strategy:
  (16:55–21:47) – M&A bidding structure explained.
• Big Tech: Berkshire’s Google Bet Amidst AI Bubble Fears:
  (26:31–29:56) – Elson celebrates Prof G’s Google call and Berkshire’s value approach.

Quotes Snapshot

• Market Psychology & Crypto:
  • “All it takes is a flip in risk appetite for these things to start working again.” (Luke Kaur, 08:30)
• Deal-Making Wisdom:
  • “Every public company is for sale at a price.” (Bill Cohen, 16:55)
• Value Investing Clarity:
  • “They care about the simple things. They care about cash flows, fundamentals, wonderful companies at reasonable prices.” (Ed Elson, 28:06)

Listener Takeaways

• Crypto Markets:
  The bear market in Bitcoin and altcoins reflects a risk-off mood and shifting narratives—Bitcoin remains more tech-speculation proxy than a gold-like haven. Major price levels are as much about psychology as fundamentals, and altcoins remain volatile sideshows, not necessarily at their "end."
• Corporate Moves:
  The Warner Brothers Discovery sale could reshape the entertainment landscape, with the Ellisons currently the only serious suitor—company value could swing dramatically based on how the auction unfolds.
• Stock Market Guidance:
  Buffett’s Google buy reinforces traditional value investing even amid current AI hype and tech turmoil. Despite market fears, fundamentals can still win out over fleeting narratives.

For a deeper market literacy and sharp, candid analysis, listen to Prof G Markets. The episode distills complex financial news into actionable insights with signature candor.