Prof G Markets – “Can a GLP-1 Pill Revive Novo Nordisk?”

January 7, 2026 | Vox Media Podcast Network
Hosts: Ed Elson
Guests: Alex Heath (Sources newsletter & Access podcast), Jared Holtz (Mizuho)

Episode Theme Overview

This episode dives into two big stories moving the capital markets:

1. The key headlines and intrigue from the 2026 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), especially around Nvidia, AI hardware, and acquisitions in the chip sector.
2. The launch of the first-ever GLP-1 weight-loss pill by Novo Nordisk—a significant industry shift that could redefine obesity treatment and the competitive landscape between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Segment 1: CES 2026 – Nvidia & the AI Hardware Boom

Guest: Alex Heath (00:17–17:02)

Key Discussion Points

The Scene at CES (03:41)

• CES has evolved from a showcase of hardware by US tech giants to an international stage dominated by startups, vaporware, and companies outside the US.
• “It just gets increasingly harder to see real things every year. A lot of it is bloatware and vaporware, but if you squint, you can see real things,” — Alex Heath [04:15]

Nvidia at CES: Tech, Rivalries, and Strategy (05:18–09:07)

• Nvidia announced its Rubin chip (for AI and autononomous vehicles) and highlighted a partnership with Mercedes Benz to ship cars with Nvidia's AI.
• Despite splashy demos, the stock response was muted:
  • “The market appears to be either already pricing that in or it's not that interested.” — Ed Elson [07:03]
• Nvidia’s approach: open-sourcing models and collaborating with multiple automakers—similar to the Android model—not a direct business play in autonomy itself, but a strategic data-gathering move.
• Insider Vegas gossip: Jensen Huang’s keynote was rumored to be timed to undercut AMD CEO Lisa Su—a family rivalry drama, with both companies vying for attention.

Main Themes and Trends at CES (08:57–11:09)

• Widespread focus on AI wearables—rings, AI glasses, display glasses (Meta), and robotics/humanoid demos (mostly vaporware).
• “It just wouldn't be CES without all these demos of humanoids doing things in kitchens...I’m numb to it. Until I see these robots in the real world, I just don't believe it.” — Alex Heath [09:53]
• Noteworthy: Lenovo stepping up with an “AI PC” move, integrating multiple AIs (Notion, Perplexity, etc.) to create context-aware, proactive experiences.

Nvidia's “Reverse Aqua-Hire” of Groq (11:09–15:45)

• Nvidia’s “acquisition” of Groq for $20 billion highlighted as a prime example of a “reverse aqua-hire”—tech giants licensing IP but really after top talent.
• “It's this stuff where big tech takes the key talent from a lab, does a non-exclusive IP license, but they don't actually care about the tech; they care about the talent. And leave the flaming husk of what's left behind.”—Alex Heath [11:45]
• The deal happened in under 10 days, Jensen wired money early, and wasn't about acquiring Groq's business but integrating Jonathan Ross and team (top chip minds) to address Nvidia’s challenge in inference latency.

Broader Industry Implications and 2026 Predictions (15:45–16:48)

• The talent wars in AI hardware roll on—reminding of the Microsoft/Inflection deal (talent over cornerstone tech).
• 2026 tech predictions: Expect an explosion in AI wearables—rings, pendants, consumer AR glasses. “That's the biggest thing I'm looking at.” — Alex Heath [16:14]
• The real inflection for robotics may still be years away, despite the hype.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Jensen is in founder mode 100%...Nvidia has all this cash and is going to keep doing deals. Maybe not $20 billion, but big ones.” — Alex Heath [13:41]
• On AI company founders: “You say you’re going to take on big tech, but then someone shows up with a ridiculous bag of money, and you kind of shut the fuck up and take the money.” — Ed Elson [15:01]
• “Jonathan Ross is probably considered top three to five greatest minds in the world on chips…for Nvidia, that's worth it.” — Alex Heath [15:17]

Segment 2: Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 Pill Launch – Upending Obesity Treatment

Guest: Jared Holtz (Mizuho) (18:01–26:08)

Key Discussion Points

The Pill Launch: A Turning Point (18:01–19:51)

• Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1/WeGovy pill launches at $149-$299/month, making treatment less costly and more accessible compared to injectables.
• “The broader GLP-1 category is expected to be north of $100 billion,” — Jared Holtz [19:02]
• The launch is significant, but questions remain about how oral formulation matches up with injectables in effectiveness and side effects.

Oral vs. Injectable: What’s the Difference? (19:51–21:47)

• Injectables (weekly) have steady, proven efficacy, while pills (daily) raise concerns about absorption, half-life, and side effect management.
• “Some side effects we've seen in pills have been worse...patients probably will use pills for maintenance, or if they’re not that heavy to start with.” — Jared Holtz [20:04]

Pricing Strategy and Accessibility (21:47–23:03)

• Lower pill price could open access for uninsured patients.
• “For less than $200 a month, you can get access. By the way, the price of gyms in the US is well north of that for decent ones…if your objective is just to lose 10 or 20 pounds, these pills will be significant.” — Jared Holtz [22:05]

Competitive Landscape: Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly (23:03–24:47)

• “The expectation gain between the two couldn’t be bigger...Novo was trading close to a five-year low, whereas Lilly’s value is fueled by high hopes for its GLP-1 drugs.”—Jared Holtz [23:22]
• Efficacy and safety data for both companies’ oral products are “much more similar than different.”
• Investor expectations for Novo are perhaps now unrealistically low—a potential positive.

GLP-1 Hype Cycle and What’s Next (24:47–26:02)

• The hype cycle ran high and then cooled, but massive demand (plus a new non-injectable format) could send interest skyward again.
• “We’re still in a pocket with a lot of excitement. What could get excitement for Novo is if the oral Wegovy takes off and closes the gap with Lilly.” — Jared Holtz [25:22]

Ed Elson’s Analysis: Why the Pill Is a Game-Changer (26:15–29:00)

• GLP-1 adoption is significant: “1 in 8 Americans currently use a GLP-1—over 40 million people, more than the population of Canada.” — Ed Elson [26:15]
• Needle phobia is a huge barrier: “63% of adults say they experience some level of needle phobia. If a third of adults aren’t even getting vaccinated because of needles, what percentage aren’t doing GLP-1s for the same reason?” [26:50]
• “This pill eliminates that barrier—you can now take a drug to lose dramatic amounts of weight, and it’s as easy as popping an Advil. That is a really big deal.” — Ed Elson [27:20]
• The floodgates may now open in the already gigantic obesity market. Novo and Lilly are both poised for growth, but so are many new entrants. The GLP-1 story is "just getting started."

Important Timestamps & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Topic or Quote | | --------- | -------------- | | 04:15 | “It just gets increasingly harder to see real things every year...but if you squint, you can see real things.” – Alex Heath | | 07:03 | “The market appears to be either already pricing that in or it's not that interested.” – Ed Elson | | 09:53 | “Until I see these robots in the real world, I just don't believe it.” – Alex Heath | | 11:45 | “Big tech takes the key talent from a lab... leaves the flaming husk.” – Alex Heath on reverse aqua-hires | | 15:01 | “Someone shows up with a ridiculous bag of money, and you take the money.” – Ed Elson | | 16:14 | “AI wearables: That’s the biggest thing I’m looking at.” – Alex Heath on 2026 predictions | | 19:02 | “The broader GLP-1 category is expected to be north of $100 billion.” – Jared Holtz | | 20:04 | “Some side effects we've seen in pills have been worse...” – Jared Holtz | | 22:05 | “For less than $200 a month...the price of gyms in the US is well north of that for decent ones.” – Jared Holtz | | 23:22 | “Expectations around Novos specifically are really, really low. And I think that’s good for the stock.” – Jared Holtz | | 26:15 | “1 in 8 Americans currently use a GLP-1—more than the population of Canada.” – Ed Elson | | 27:20 | “This pill eliminates that barrier—you can now take a drug to lose dramatic amounts of weight, as easy as popping an Advil.” – Ed Elson |

Key Takeaways

• At CES, the future is wearable, AI-powered, and fiercely competitive. Nvidia is shifting from pure hardware plays to a data-first, platform approach. Talent wars in AI hardware continue to drive massive M&A.
• Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 pill is a true market unlocker. Removing the needle barrier could propel adoption far beyond the already-massive injectable market, driving intense competition and investment in the obesity treatment space.
• The GLP-1 market battle is just beginning. While Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate now, a broader field is forming. This new pill may shift market shares and investor perceptions dramatically.

Conclusion

The episode paints a picture of two “just-getting-started” frontiers: AI hardware (and the cutthroat chess game between tech giants) and the next phase of anti-obesity drugs, opened wide by pill-based GLP-1s. Both are high-stakes, paradigm-shifting stories—and perfect windows for both market watchers and general listeners trying to track the evolving shape of American capitalism.