Podcast Summary: Prof G Markets – David Solomon on AI, Debt, and America’s Future

Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Scott Galloway (Prof G), co-host Ed Elson
Guest: David Solomon, Chairman & CEO of Goldman Sachs

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, who discusses key themes shaping the financial markets, including the firm’s big comeback, the impact of AI on banking jobs, America’s growing debt, macroeconomic risks, and leadership under intense scrutiny. The conversation is candid and wide-ranging, offering a mix of market analysis and personal insight into running one of the world’s most influential financial institutions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Goldman Sachs’ Performance and Comeback (07:20–12:42)

• 2025 as a Breakout Year:
  • David Solomon notes, “2025 was a pretty constructive environment for our business... We've grown our revenues kind of 60, 65%. We've grown our earnings by over 100%.” (07:55)
  • Emphasizes execution of long-term strategy laid out in 2020 across four core areas: asset management, wealth, transaction banking, and digital banking.
• Refuting “RIP Goldman Sachs” Narrative:
  • Solomon dismisses the dramatic media pessimism of 2022 and 2023, explaining that perceived difficulties were mostly noise amid necessary “structural changes” and a turbulent market following the financial crisis hangover.
  • “We stuck to our knitting. We kept our head down. We knew the changes and the investments we were making were right... ultimately performance and execution matter, but change and growth take time.” (10:30)

2. Outlook for Business Segments & Industry (12:42–15:06)

• Where the Growth Is:
  • Solomon sees lasting strength in investment banking and market businesses, but highlights “very strong secular growth in asset and wealth management, particularly around our positioning... for the ultra wealthy.” (13:13)
  • Firm is not planning to expand into big new lines, but expects double-digit growth in wealth management.
• Generational Wealth Transfer:
  • Notes powerful long-term drivers as Boomers transfer wealth to younger generations.

3. Impact of AI on Finance & Human Capital (15:06–19:22)

• AI Productivity Transformations:
  • Solomon places AI within a long lineage of productivity-boosting technologies in finance.
  • “The opportunity is to have more people doing more productive things with clients that can't be done simply by the technology... relationships, connectivity, they're still hugely important.” (15:48)
  • Predicts a flattening of headcount growth for the next three years, but more jobs over a longer horizon:
    • “If you want to say 36 months, it'll be a flatter trajectory... but five, ten years out, I think we'll have more employees.” (18:54)

4. Risks for 2026 & Beyond (23:08–25:52)

• Short-term Risk Factors:
  • “Things that keep me up or worrying... are exogenous things that we don't see. They can center around geopolitics... or cyber events.” (23:08)
  • Macro “setup is very strong” due to fiscal stimulus, capital investment in AI, monetary easing, deregulatory trends, and midterm election focus on affordability.
• Long-term Concern: America’s Debt & Fiscal Position:
  • Expresses "very concerned about the debt and deficit and our inability on either side of the aisle to control our spending.” (25:52)
  • Warns that higher growth is the only way out with current spending/debt, labeling entitlement programs “structurally nonviable” without changes.
  • “Unless you create that [higher growth] on a sustained basis... we're setting ourself up at some point for some big speed bumps.” (28:45)

5. Global Trade, De-globalization & US Dollar Risks (30:39–38:44)

• Resilience of US Dollar & Treasuries:
  • On whether coordinated foreign selling of US Treasuries could hurt the US:
    • “Vulnerable is a big word... the dollar is still a reserve currency... I think the chance in the short run... is very, very low. But longer term, if we continue to grow the debt, we are not going to have the same latitude...” (31:19)
• Structural vs. Cyclical Change:
  • Discusses trade strains (US-Canada, US-China):
    • “The economies are massively intertwined... at the margin there can be behavioral changes, but the economy is very globally interconnected... It's hard to pull them apart.” (33:43, 35:19)
  • No clear “line” for when global economic order truly shifts; “Everything’s at the margin, everything’s nuanced.” (37:14)

6. Comparing Tech Investment “Super Cycles” (AI vs. Dot-Com) (38:44–41:28)

• Euphoria vs. Reality:
  • Parallels drawn between 1999 dot-com era and AI boom:
    • “I don't know if we're in 1999 or 1996 or 2000, but when you get these accelerations, you have massive capital formation around forward growth.” (38:58)
    • Cautions that capital returns may disappoint due to slower-than-expected adoption.
    • Difference is AI buildout is largely cash flow–funded by tech giants, not small public investors.

7. Leadership, Culture, and Personal Reflections (43:51–55:09)

• CEO Pressure and Philosophy:
  • “There are lots of days where I've woken up and said, how did I get here? ...My job is to do everything I can... to leave this organization stronger than we founded [it].” (44:31)
  • Acknowledges learning and growth through adversity; credits luck and timing as decisive factors in career ascent.
  • Notable anecdote: Rejected by Goldman twice as a grad, told he was “not Goldman Sachs material.” Now CEO.
    • “...a confluence of things, a big portion of which is just luck and serendipity.” (47:38)
• Advice for Young People:
  • “Hard work matters. Commitment and sacrifice matters. Building connectivity and relationships with people directly matters. Understand nothing comes easy... If you do it over time, chances are that good things will happen.” (52:18)
  • Reassures that generational anxiety about jobs and affordability is ancient, encourages optimism.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Rebound after Adversity:

  “Change and growth take time. You can’t do it instantaneously.” — David Solomon (10:30)

• On AI in Investment Banking:

  “It's not as black and white as people in, people out.” — David Solomon (15:48)

• On the Burden of Leadership:

  “My job is to... leave this organization stronger than we founded it as a leadership team, so the next leaders can steward it.” (44:31)

• On Career Luck:

  “A big portion of [becoming CEO] is just luck and serendipity.” (47:38)

• Ed’s Recap on Solomon:

  “David just reeks of credibility and honesty. Really appreciate your time, David.” — Ed Elson (54:48)

• On What Gives Lasting Satisfaction:

  “Keep the compass pointed at your loved ones, your family, your friends, and... do the right thing.” — David Solomon (49:46)

Key Timestamps for Segments

• [07:20] — Reflections on 2025, Goldman’s comeback
• [12:42] — Future business projections & sector insights
• [15:06] — AI’s impact on jobs and firm structure
• [18:54] — Projected headcount and employment trends
• [23:08] — Macro risks for 2026
• [25:52] — Long-term concerns: Debt, spending, and entitlements
• [31:19] — Foreign holders of US debt & dollar reserve status
• [33:43] — De-globalization and trade partner tensions
• [38:44] — AI investment bubble vs dot-com era
• [43:51] — Personal perspective: Leading Goldman, career journey
• [47:38] — Lessons from rejection and luck in leadership
• [49:46] — Advice on life, balance, and resilience
• [52:18] — Guidance for young professionals

Tone and Style

The episode blends analytical rigor with humor and warmth, particularly as Solomon discusses both macroeconomic trends and his highly personal journey. The hosts, Scott and Ed, keep the interview lively, sometimes irreverent, but always respectful. The conversation alternates between big-picture market analysis, candid leadership wisdom, and career advice, making the episode informative and accessible for listeners at all levels.

Summary:
David Solomon delivers hard-earned lessons on market cycles, business building, and personal resilience. Whether you’re a market watcher, finance professional, or young person worried about the future, the episode offers a mix of caution (“change takes time,” “debt is a real concern”) and optimism (“opportunity comes from how you show up,” “the world is always uncertain, work and commitment matter”).