Prof G Markets: "Did Anthropic Just Kill Software?"

Date: February 9, 2026
Hosts: Scott Galloway & Ed Elson
Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the current turmoil in software stocks, the market's panic around AI's potential to disrupt traditional SaaS business models, and the strategic significance of Anthropic's Super Bowl ad targeting OpenAI. Scott and Ed also address media industry shakeups—including Disney’s new CEO and a heated antitrust hearing involving Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery. The duo deliver candid, rapid-fire insights—from capital markets reaction to AI, to classic brand strategy, to business model analysis—all in the show's signature “no mercy, no malice” tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Meltdown: Is AI Killing Software?

[08:52 - 28:22]

• Software Stock Selloff:

  • Noted massive drops in software stocks: Cloudflare down 7%, Atlassian down, Shopify down 14%.
  • IGV software ETF down 20% in a month.

• Trigger:

  • AI announcements (Anthropic, OpenAI, new agent platforms) stirred panic.
  • Investors fear that AI will allow companies to build their own software, making legacy SaaS obsolete.

• Ed Elson’s Analysis:

  • "The market’s reaction is telling us software is dead. AI has killed software." [11:52]
  • Argues this is a panic sell, much like oversold reactions to ChatGPT (on Google) and TikTok (on Meta), both of which ultimately proved great buying opportunities.

• Scott Galloway’s Perspective:

  • Software companies face margin compression, not extinction.
  • New AI startups will offer “80% of Adobe for 10% of the price” but switching costs and trust with incumbents are huge (e.g., Salesforce, Adobe).
  • "I don't think they're going to swap out Cloudflare. All these companies do such a good job of creating friction to exit." [19:09]

• Switching Costs & Moats:

  • Significant inertia in enterprise contracts.
  • Replacing SaaS providers requires vast internal persuasion, resources, and carries big penalties.

• Stock Picks Amid Chaos:

  • Ed's software stock buys:
    • Adobe: "Down 40% in a year, trading at 17x earnings...used by 98% of the Fortune 500." [22:09]
    • Salesforce: "Down 45% in the past year, massive enterprise SaaS company, large moats." [23:00]
    • ServiceNow: "Trading at nine times sales... integrating with Anthropic and OpenAI." [23:30]
    • Suggests choosing strong, ‘dislocated’ high-quality names, not just ETFs.
    • Microsoft also mentioned as unfairly hit.

• Winners & Losers in AI Disruption:

  • Software companies integrating AI will survive.
  • Certain research/info businesses, e.g., Gartner, are particularly vulnerable ("Every research report they put out...a CTO could get a similar level of feedback with a two minute prompt." [24:41]), and have plummeted.

2. Entertainment Industry Shakeups

[32:11 - 56:19]

• Antitrust Hearing: Netflix + Warner Bros. Discovery Merger

  • Hearing devolved into arguments about political bias and “wokeness” instead of monopoly risk.
  • Scott: "This isn't about an editorial bias. This is about a concentration of power that would lead to higher prices, of which there are real concerns." [36:41]
  • Ed: "Every time these hearings are happening, it's just a giant display of political theater. None of it even matters." [38:23]

• Disney’s New CEO: Josh D’Amaro

  • D’Amaro, head of parks and experiences—the newly central business—is taking over from Bob Iger.
  • Iger’s saga critiqued: "That was one of the worst personal decisions in corporate history." [44:57]
  • Disney’s linear media assets (ABC, ESPN, NatGeo) are seen as the main drag; selling them is critical for re-rating the company in markets.
  • "If the new CEO sold all of the linear...for a dollar, the stock would go up." [50:15]
  • Prediction: Now is the time for ‘good bank / bad bank’ moves, splitting legacy and growth assets.

3. "Did Anthropic Just Kill Software?": The Ad Heard Around the AI World

[58:49 - 71:44]

• Anthropic’s Super Bowl Ad

  • The ad playfully skewered OpenAI for adding ads to ChatGPT, highlighting Anthropic’s commitment to ad-free AI.
  • OpenAI’s new ad model goes against Sam Altman’s previous stated philosophy, drawing public mockery and loss of narrative control.

• Analysis of the Marketing Masterstroke

  • Scott:

    • "This is the biggest moment in broadcast advertising as it relates to impact on the markets we've seen in a long time." [60:32]
    • Frames Anthropic’s move as ‘laddering’—claiming a relevant, sustainable, and differentiated brand position.
    • Highlights massive user trust and privacy issues with ads in AI products.

  • Ed:

    • Draws direct analogy to the iconic 1984 Apple ad targeting IBM: “For me, it has parallels to the Apple ad. The 1984 Apple ad...also aired during the super bowl and also took a direct shot at a competitor.” [66:50]

• Sam Altman’s Reaction:

  • Altman issued a verbose Twitter defense, derided as defensive and over-thought.
  • Scott: "When you’re the market leader...you don’t reference the competition." [68:08]

• Predictions:

  • Anthropic will outpace OpenAI in valuation within 12 months, leaning into enterprise focus versus OpenAI’s consumer tilt.

Notable Quotes

• Scott Galloway, on AI panic selling:

  • "Your emotions are your enemy. When you hear this news...that AI is going to undermine all SaaS platforms. I get it, you have to be thoughtful about valuations." [16:48]

• Ed Elson, on market overreaction:

  • "I think that the selling pressure is way too strong right now. I think markets are overreacting. To me, this is perfect buying opportunity." [15:54]

• Scott, on the power of inertia:

  • "Good luck trying to get your entire salesforce to figure out a way to input and figure out the interface and the mobile application. You know they're going to say, fuck that, let’s just stick with Salesforce." [17:58]

• Scott, on ad-free AI:

  • "We have been opening up so much about our most personal information to AI, that the thought that they’re going to start taking all of our history and...prostitute us to advertisers. Anthropic has said, no, we’re not going to do that." [62:16]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [08:52] – Software market meltdown and sell-off details
• [11:52] – Market panic & 'software is dead' thesis
• [16:48] – Scott on market herd behavior
• [22:09] – Ed’s stock picks: Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow
• [32:11] – Entertainment industry updates (Disney/Netflix/Warner Bros)
• [33:03] – Antitrust hearing audio & political grandstanding
• [44:57] – Disney succession and strategic inflection
• [58:49] – Anthropic Super Bowl ad, campaign strategy, and implications for AI
• [66:50] – Anthropic’s ad compared to Apple's 1984
• [70:21] – Predictions: Anthropic’s ascendance over OpenAI

Memorable Moments

• The pair riff on the inertia of enterprise SaaS contracts: "Switching your enterprise SaaS provider is like trying to get your entire salesforce to learn a new language they don’t want to speak."
• Ed’s “panic is a gift” thesis, referencing previous market overreactions (Meta, Google).
• The playful bashing of Senate hearings as political theater, missing the real stakes of media and monopoly.
• Dissection of Anthropic’s ad as both a strategic and culturally resonant moment, paralleled with legendary marketing history.
• Scott’s declaration: "In 12 months, Anthropic is going to be worth more than OpenAI." [74:18]

Conclusion & Predictions

• Software Stocks: Oversold due to AI panic; opportunity in high-quality names integrating AI (Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow).
• Enterprise AI: Switching costs and trusted incumbents mean “software isn’t dead.”
• Media Mergers: Antitrust issues obscured by culture war rhetoric; fundamental concerns are monopoly, not 'wokeness.'
• Disney: Parks-led CEO signals strategic pivot; shedding linear media assets is key to unlocking value.
• AI Ad Wars: Anthropic’s Super Bowl moment is pivotal; Altman’s defensive response is a fumble.
• Look Ahead: Anthropic predicted to surpass OpenAI in value, as enterprise-focused AI rises.

For listeners seeking actionable insights on markets and tech disruption, this episode is a must, blending biting humor, original analysis, and sharp predictions.