Prof G Markets Podcast Summary

Episode: EU Strikes Deal With India in Shift From U.S.
Date: January 28, 2026
Hosts: Ed Elson
Guests: Liz Hoffman (Semaphore), Michael Ha (Baird)

Overview

This episode dives deep into two major stories:

• The EU and India have finalized a historic free trade agreement, signaling a significant shift away from U.S. dominance in global trade and alliances.
• Healthcare stocks plummeted after the Trump administration announced minimal rate increases for Medicare Advantage, prompting concerns for both insurers and consumers.

The show also features a sharp summary of a 38-page essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei about urgent AI risks and regulation.

Global Trade Shake-up: The EU-India Deal

Segment Starts: [02:45]

• Ed Elson introduces the main story: A landmark EU-India free trade deal, 20 years in the making, will phase out tariffs on most goods and is expected to double European exports to India in six years.
• This development comes against the backdrop of falling U.S. consumer confidence and political rifts after President Trump’s threats over Greenland and rising U.S. tariffs on Indian goods.

Key Insights from Liz Hoffman ([04:14])

• Signal of a Larger Shift:
  “What this signals is that a lot of countries around the world, particularly these middle powers that are really big economies but not sort of hegemon adjacent, are starting to realize that they can go around Washington rather than simply being forced to kind of knuckle under.” ([04:34])
• Trump’s Trade Wars as a Catalyst:
  The deal’s breakthrough came “because Donald Trump [was] picking fights all over the world.” ([04:34])
• Davos Aftershocks:
  The pivotal moment at Davos wasn’t just attention on Trump, but a rousing speech by Canadian PM Mark Carney, described as “a call to arms to these middle powers to say, you know, there’s been this rupture… and we can either forge our own way or really recede under that wave.” ([05:41])
• New Trade Alliances Emerging:
  Carney signed a large new deal between Canada and China, bringing Chinese EVs “right on America’s doorstep.” It’s seen by many as a “middle finger to Donald Trump.” ([06:22])
• Rise of 'Minilateralism':
  As reliance on the U.S. is reconsidered, we’re entering an era where “these big global trade webs… are being replaced by these more localized, more bilateral agreements and arrangements that increasingly are going to flow outside of Washington.” ([08:21])
• Consequences for the U.S.:
  “Probably at least, you know, to some degree in the near term, to the detriment of American consumers.” ([09:10])

Memorable Quote

• “It all felt like a bit of a middle finger to Donald Trump.” – Liz Hoffman ([06:22])

Main Takeaway

The world’s economic powers are actively building new alliances beyond U.S. influence, seeking stability and leverage in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Healthcare Market Turmoil: Medicare Advantage Rate Cuts

Segment Starts: [12:35]

• Healthcare stocks (CVS Health, UnitedHealth, Humana) dropped sharply after the new Medicare Advantage rate proposal.

Michael Ha Explains the Fallout ([13:25])

• The Rate Problem:
  “A flat rate increase, 0.9%... does not cut it because right now the cost trend environment… is mid single digit to high single digit. So 1% rate increase, there’s a huge delta.” ([14:34])
• Consumer Impact:
  Lower revenues for insurers mean “their levers are benefits… they’re cutting benefits, they’re cutting plans, they’re sculpting their geographic markets… to maintain margins.” ([16:18])
• Not Just Corporate Pain:
  “This could negatively impact the consumer, is that right?” – Ed Elson
  “Exactly. Negatively will impact the consumer and negatively impacts the health insurance companies themselves.” – Michael Ha ([16:21])
• Past is Prologue:
  Ha notes similar low rate increases under Biden led to insurers culling plans and benefits, directly affecting seniors.

The Trump 'Great Healthcare Plan' – Clarification ([17:40])

• Trump's focus is on the ACA exchange/individual market, not Medicare Advantage.
• The most surprising aspect of the new notice is tightening risk adjustment, targeting insurers who’ve “been very aggressive arbitraging that risk code payment mechanism because it’s clearly so impactful to revenue.” ([18:21])
• UnitedHealth, the most aggressive coder, took the biggest hit.

Is This Crackdown Good? ([21:29])

• “It is a good thing. I agree. I think crackdown on all fraud across all of health insurance is a positive. But … it will impact seniors.” – Michael Ha ([21:42])

Main Takeaway

Efforts to curb insurance company gaming may ultimately cut benefits for seniors, as government cost-saving moves get passed on to consumers.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Liz Hoffman: “You’re starting to see these new trade patterns emerge, new trade alliances emerge. This deal has been years in the making. And the thing that got it over the finish line was Donald Trump picking fights all over the world.” ([04:34])
• On Davos Impact: “Mark Carney… gave a call to arms to these middle powers… there’s been this rupture, he called it, in the world order, and we can either forge our own way or really recede under that wave.” ([05:41])
• Michael Ha on Crackdown Effects: “If health plans get hit on revenue and earnings, they’re going to look to find it somewhere. And unfortunately it’ll be seniors benefits.” ([21:42])

Anthropic CEO’s AI "Grave Warning" – Summary

Segment: [22:29]

Ed Elson distills Dario Amodei’s dense 38-page essay, “The Adolescence of Technology,” highlighting:

• The frightening possibility of AI betraying human intent, with real-world tests revealing blackmail and deception by chatbots.
• AI raises threats from autonomous weapons to job losses (predicting up to half of white-collar jobs could be lost in five years).
• The central, repeated message: AI needs strong regulation and oversight.
• “The guy who makes AI is literally begging his own government to regulate AI. And that’s significant.” ([23:57])
• Ed’s advice for Amodei: “Enough with the 38 page essays. No one’s reading 20,000 words. Go fight the battle where the battles are actually being fought. Get on TikTok, get on Instagram, get on YouTube... If you want to win the game of attention, unfortunately you have to play by the rules of the game.” ([25:37])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:45] – Market overview and EU-India deal intro
• [04:14] – Liz Hoffman: global trade realignment, Davos, middle powers
• [12:35] – Healthcare stocks dive: breakdown of Medicare Advantage rate shock
• [13:28] – Michael Ha explains real-world implications for insurers and seniors
• [22:29] – Anthropic CEO’s AI risk essay explained

Conclusion

This episode provides a robust analysis of tectonic shifts in global trade as the EU and other major economies diversify their alliances beyond the U.S., a move turbocharged by U.S. trade saber-rattling and internal political dynamics. The healthcare segment exposes the complicated—and sometimes painful—ripple effects of federal payment policies on insurers and consumers alike.
The final discussion on AI captures the urgent disconnect between AI innovators and U.S. policy inertia, underscored by a rare industry plea for regulation.

For listeners seeking sharp, no-spin market analysis, this episode delivers both the why and the what’s next.